Romney within 3 in Michigan?

posted at 9:21 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

No wonder Team Obama started spending money in Detroit.  Democrats usually have no trouble holding Michigan in presidential races, and with Barack Obama bragging about the auto-industry bailout, most people figured that task would be easier than ever.  However, a new poll from the Detroit News shows Obama below 50% — and Mitt Romney within the margin of error:

Mitt Romney is within striking distance of Barack Obama in Michigan in the final days before the election, buoyed by more who are convinced the Republican is a viable alternative to the president, with the ability to turn around the economy.

Obama’s lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama’s lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. It’s the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.

“Mitt Romney’s numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week,” said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. “But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?”

The Detroit News didn’t release the poll internals, but the News has some helpful graphics at the top of the page on a couple of key issues.  Obama has an eight-point lead on foreign affairs, and a six-point lead on “understanding your values,” but doesn’t get to 50% on either. Romney has a narrow lead on the economy, 47.3% to 43.8%, though, which is the biggest issue in the campaign.  Romney’s lead in this case looks less important than the fact that the incumbent can’t get to 44%.

Perhaps more importantly, Romney’s winning independents, according to the News, albeit “narrowly.”  Obama won them by eight in 2008.  Romney also leads among men by six points, while Obama won them by seven four years ago.  Obama won the state by sixteen points in 2008, so a 13-point flip in the gap among independents and a flip among men of nine or more points would put this state in play.

Expect to see more polling come out of Michigan, especially with national polling more or less derailed after Hurricane Sandy.  We’ll see if this is an outlier — but the sudden decision to spend precious last-minute resources in Detroit by the Obama campaign tells me they’re seeing the same thing.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

GOLF even grrr

Kagan on October 31, 2012 at 10:56 AM

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

You’re right.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Do as you want. But just review the threads. He owns them.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

No, it is just the expected partisan dueling and spinning on a political message board. Telling one side to disarm is not a good idea.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If you really for some reason can’t restrain yourself from responding to a troll, let’s at least don’t c&p their garbage and spread it through the thread.
slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Exactly. Or simply quote person partially so that their main point isn’t repeated and so that, hopefully, they come off looking even more silly than they did in the context of their full original comment.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I just read the poll and I didn’t see any links to the sampling data. Would love to know the DRI of this one.

pfw51 on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM
No, it is just the expected partisan dueling and spinning on a political message board. Telling one side to disarm is not a good idea.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

You didn’t read me say ban him. But the truth is the treads get devoted to answering his every looney assertion. That’s all. Let him post his comments and take them for what they’re worth. I’d rather read a comment from one of our own who actually puts some serious analysis into the posted poll.

I have no head for polls and sampling, so I look to others here who can honestly pick through that data. Those get lost in the shuffle.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Well at least you finally admitted what Obumbler has been doing for the last 4 years….. In between gulf outings of course.

Kagan on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I know you corrected this later on but let’s remember the rat-eared wonder’s one gulf outing. Six hours in FL during the BP oil spill before Mooch and her entourage jetted off to Spain for a vacation so expensive the administration has yet to come clean on how much it cost the American taxpayer.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:22 AM

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I hear what you’re saying. I actually think that one person ought to be banned. He has posted off-topic, disruptive comments far too many times in efforts to provoke the other readers here. The back and forth that follows is the expected partisan argument, and that’s where I think it’s important to put the provocateur in his place.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Didn’t Obama GIVE Chrysler to the Italians?

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I still say that Romney is going to win every state that has Obama polling under 50%. Watch and learn, libs. Obama’s record of stuttering failure matters when he’s up for contract renewal.

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 11:37 AM

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I’m curious, who do you consider worse than the clay troll that you’d actually ban them?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:55 AM

I also think Romney is riding a wave into the office to POTUS, we’ll know early Tuesday night!
I started reading the Amateur because Dick Cheney recommended it. Obama lost a 2000 congressional bid, he was so despondent and depressed and Mochelle was ready to divorce him, I wonder if the same thing will happen when O loses this election? He wasn’t known international then, his ego will be crushed.
I hope that my feeling is right, most of the time they are. I can’t stand the thought of four more years with him as POTUS, he’ll do whatever he wants, raise taxes on everyone.

I”m going to try to make time to make calls for Romney today. Will everyone here do the same?

carolt2 on October 31, 2012 at 12:00 PM

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM
I’m curious, who do you consider worse than the clay troll that you’d actually ban them?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Nothing?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Romney spending the whole day in Florida ,that is actually the most important news of the day…also the auto companies smacking Romney down in Ohio,great news for President Obama …

U2denver on October 31, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Romney spending the whole day in Florida ,that is actually the most important news of the day…also the auto companies smacking Romney down in Ohio,great news for President Obama …

U2denver on October 31, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Then obama going back to Michigan is the second best news of the day.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 1:47 PM

I started reading the Amateur because Dick Cheney recommended it. Obama lost a 2000 congressional bid, he was so despondent and depressed and Mochelle was ready to divorce him, I wonder if the same thing will happen when O loses this election?

carolt2

I think Obama seems depressed already. I think the Benghazi thing gives him manic episodes. Example: The first debate when he was Missing? but I saw it on something last week too, at the NYC Roast, he had some moments of darkness, saying he was telling axelrod he wasn’t going to rehearse. Or even the oddness to his denial in the number 2 debate, where he said he had said it was terrorism and Candy backed him up. There is a certain meanness to his depression. I think the Benghazi thing got him.

Fleuries on October 31, 2012 at 4:22 PM

We ARE going to win here in MI

Bullhead on October 31, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I’m curious, who do you consider worse than the clay troll that you’d actually ban them?
hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:55 AM

I was actually speaking of the clay troll. But I’m not sure what you are asking.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 7:01 PM

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:55 AM
I was actually speaking of the clay troll. But I’m not sure what you are asking.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 7:01 PM

I understand now. I thought you were referring to a third person. I wouldn’t ban him, her, it. I wish we just had more self restraint. Me too, I know.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Comment pages: 1 2