Romney gains 7 points in one month in PA

posted at 10:41 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

If you want to see what momentum looks like in what has suddenly become a battleground state, look no farther than the Franklin & Marshall poll data for Pennsylvania.  The CBS affiliate in Philadelphia reported the results this morning, showing Barack Obama with a four-point lead in a state that Democrats cannot afford to lose under any circumstances — but just might:

A new Franklin and Marshall Poll shows that Republican Mitt Romney is now within striking distance of President Obama in Pennsylvania.

Less than a week before election day, the Franklin and Marshall College Poll shows Romney now trailing Obama by just four percentage points among likely Pennsylvania voters – 45-percent to 49-percent, compared to a nine point deficit in a September F&M survey. Poll director Terry Madonna says Romney is closing in, but he may be running out of time.

We’ll get back to that in a moment.  Take a look at the graphic from the poll report, though, showing the history of the head-to-head polling in this race:

This is the first time in the series that Romney has gotten out of the 30s, jumping up 5 points in a month.  At the same time, Obama has lost a couple of points, which could be within the margin of error, Still, that’s a change of seven points in the gap in just a month, and shows why Team Obama has begun spending money in Pennsylvania playing on the defense.

Let’s look again at the two key indicators in this election.  Among independents, Romney has a sixteen point lead, 48/32.  Ten percent goes to “other,” with another 10% undecided.  Assuming most of the undecideds break away from the incumbent — as is the norm — Romney might easily score a majority.  Obama won this demo in 2008 by 19, 58/39.

Next, let’s look at the gender gap.  Obama has the advantage here, winning women by 14 points, but losing men by six for an overall +8.  In 2008, Obama won men by three and women by 18 for an overall +21 in the gender gap.

Finally, let’s take a look at the sample.  The D/R/I in this survey is D+13 at 50/37/11, which tracks fairly closely to party registration but not to turnout.  In 2008, the D/R/I was 44/37/18 in a Democratic wave election, and in 2010 it was 40/37/23.  If the turnout comes closer to 2010 with these internals, Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.


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Pa. Will fall to Romney.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Wow. If PA gets called for Romney, 11/6 will be over by 10 pm.

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Pa is going to be called for Romney around 10:30

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I want to hear Obama’s concession before I go to bed Tuesday night. I don’t want to have to wait up or wait till the next morning to hear Obama congratulate Romney on his win.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Pa now the State with the most NRA members in the US. It has surpassed Texas this year

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

4 points in a D+13?

4 points in a D+13? In Pennsylvania?

Dude…

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

That sample is ridiculous.

nukemhill on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Dare we hope to go to bed early and happy on election night?

digitalhap on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Someone just made a good point on Twitter.

“Not to be a wet blanket, but Mitt is in FL today, VA Thurs, then OH Fri. Clearly doesn’t think FL/VA locked, takes time from OH, CO, WI…”

Donald Draper on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

President Romney.

MTF on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

#WarOnCoal

reddevil on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

If PA turns red on election night, then game over by 11pm.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I’m eeyorish on PA chances to flip, but at least the donks won’t be able to bus activists and homeless people from Philly to nearby states, as they doubtlessly hoped to.

Archivarix on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Wow. If PA gets called for Romney, 11/6 will be over by 10 pm.

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

This will be the one to watch.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Someone just made a good point on Twitter.

“Not to be a wet blanket, but Mitt is in FL today, VA Thurs, then OH Fri. Clearly doesn’t think FL/VA locked, takes time from OH, CO, WI…”

Donald Draper on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Nah it’s called closing, closing these then moving in to a blue state at the finish, also checking in to the ground game

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Gumby will be here..

He’s like an overly excited Cocker Spaniel puppy in a park.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I want to hear Obama’s concession before I go to bed Tuesday night. I don’t want to have to wait up or wait till the next morning to hear Obama congratulate Romney on his win.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

You’re never going to hear Mr. “I Won” congratulate Mitt Romney, wish him well, or pledge to have a smooth transition. Of course having Mooch screaming in the background will be a distraction too.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It’s a fair poll but may have over sampled republicans in this deep dark blue state that loves Obama.

Dumbyanddopey

bgibbs1000 on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The Philly suburbs will be the difference this time round.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

All the Democrats have to cling to now is the desperate hope that Christie’s handful of positive words about Obama and the coverage of them will transform Obama’s lagging voter support into some kind of instant nation-wide momentum. Everything else failed, and now they’re getting very desperate.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Dick Morris will be proven right, Cool. I just can’t wait until next Weds when Bill O’Reilly has Dick Morris on.

BroncosRock on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Red PA = game/set/match.

Same holds true for red MN, WI, or MI. Let’s get ‘er done.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I don’t think we’re going to hear a concession speech by O. Not that I think he’s going to win. I just don’t think he has humbleness and concession available in his skill set.

strosfan on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Mitt Romney put his dog on top of his car 30 years ago.

Something for you racists to mull over before you cast your ballot.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Polls like this make the clingers a little less bitter.

Flange on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I raise her horse and add one 15-yr old daughter. Now THAT’S expensive!

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

I notice that Ed Morrissey almost always ends these articles with an inconclusive phrase about the outcome. Here, it’s “Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.” That is not the same as saying that Obama will lose Pennsylvania. There is a remarkable reticence to draw clear conclusions.

Dextrous on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Taking the crtosstab data and using a D+3 model, Romney is up 50-45.

kevinkristy on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Someone just made a good point on Twitter.

“Not to be a wet blanket, but Mitt is in FL today, VA Thurs, then OH Fri. Clearly doesn’t think FL/VA locked, takes time from OH, CO, WI…”

Donald Draper on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

How does being in Ohio, take away time from being in Ohio?

I’ll bet my house that if Romney isn’t in WI, Ryan is. And Ryan has strong favorables in that state.

Fish on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

DESTROY.

blatantblue on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

“Not to be a wet blanket, but Mitt is in FL today, VA Thurs, then OH Fri. Clearly doesn’t think FL/VA locked, takes time from OH, CO, WI…”

Donald Draper on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I think you’re missing the strategery. In Virginia, he’s doing a rally at a business in Roanoke- where the rat-eared wonder made his “you didn’t build that” speech. He’s also holding a rally in Virginia Beach where I’m sure he will remind Virginians that their livlihood is about to be gutted by sequestration. This is essentially closing the deal.

BTW, it is unclear if the rat-eared wonder will be returning to the Old Dominion before the election.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I can see landslide from my house.

Bye-bye, Obungler.

Thomas More on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

gummeandpoleme HAS TO BE peeing uncontrollably…everywhere!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Did I hear they actually tied that horse to the roof of an SUV once when the were hauling all of their illegal Bain money to an offshore bank account?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

“Taking the crtosstab data and using a D+3 model, Romney is up 50-45.

kevinkristy on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM”

A D+3 model in PA? Good Grief, you guys have no clue.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

D+13????

Come on, you know D+25 is coming.

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

“Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.” That is not the same as saying that Obama will lose Pennsylvania. There is a remarkable reticence to draw clear conclusions.

Dextrous on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Are you suggesting that you can say conclusively and decisively what the outcome will be in PA on November 6th? That’s quite a gift.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The only concession speech I will settle for is Barky and Mooch screaming “WAIT FOR US!” as they scramble across the White House roof towards a hovering helicopter, silverware and candlesticks falling from their half-opened suitcases, and a mob of outraged American citizens just steps behind.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Nah it’s called closing, closing these then moving in to a blue state at the finish, also checking in to the ground game

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Yeah, I don’t know why this is so difficult to understand. Lock down VA and FL, do some more work in OH and then spend the last few days of the campaign in the remaining swing states. In the meantime, dispatch Ryan to those other states while spending millions in TV ads. It sounds like a good strategery.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

d+13
ATOMIC BOMB!

The only reason to question this poll is how close Romney is. Obviously Romney is not at 44% but at best in the 30′s, otherwise this poll is a picture of pure reason and unbiased methodology
/s off

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I’m getting more optimistic by the day, pretty soon we will be able to once again be proud of our country for correcting the mistake of 2008.

Solider on Hot Airians, vote, get others to vote and help in anyway you can. We can do this.

D-fusit on October 31, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I notice that Ed Morrissey almost always ends these articles with an inconclusive phrase about the outcome. Here, it’s “Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.” That is not the same as saying that Obama will lose Pennsylvania. There is a remarkable reticence to draw clear conclusions.
Dextrous on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Ed has been perfectly clear with his analysis. He doesn’t have a crystal ball and he can’t conclusively say what is going to happen.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Cautiously optimistic

I got family in the Pittsburgh area….. libs to the core dang it

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Mother-in-law lives in Philly
(Former Democrat) wife calls her mom
Wife doesn’t hang up phone till she get a promise
Mother-in-law agrees to vote for Mitt or not vote at all

Grass Roots baby!!!

patman77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM
Mitt Romney put his dog on top of his car 30 years ago.

Something for you racists to mull over before you cast your ballot.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

…you Republiturds are very insensitive about the bully haircut that happened in high school too!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Did I hear they actually tied that horse to the roof of an SUV once when the were hauling all of their illegal Bain money to an offshore bank account?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Perhaps they did, you KKK’er, but I know for sure that Ann used the tortured bodies of Iraqi civilians as ground cover so her horse’s hooves wouldn’t be soiled by dirt or mud.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I don’t know if Romney will take PA but dang, those samples are so skewed it almost looks like deperation on the part of these Pollsters.

A D +13 when 2008 was only +7 and 2010 was +3…..Seriously?

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

since i don’t know what d+ is normal in PA. i can’t tell

any info anybody

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

We knew MI and PA were in play. While Romney appears to be the underdog, numbers suggest MI and PA are not Obama sure bets.

Fun times election night for sure.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I notice that Ed Morrissey almost always ends these articles with an inconclusive phrase about the outcome. Here, it’s “Obama may be in bigger trouble than this poll indicates.” That is not the same as saying that Obama will lose Pennsylvania. There is a remarkable reticence to draw clear conclusions.

Dextrous on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

He doesn’t have a crystal ball that enables him to determine what the result will be on election day. He drew the only conclusion that one reasonably can, that Obama might be in some trouble there. With all the screwy numbers we’re seeing, determining anything else just doesn’t make sense.

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Uninstalling Obama……… ████████████████▒ 98% complete.

Ronnie on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

If Obama thinks he is going to lose, somebody needs to watch what is going on behind the scenes. He will be hiding info, sending money to dems and buddies, and robbing the store blind until Jan. 20th 2013.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

“Not to be a wet blanket, but Mitt is in FL today, VA Thurs, then OH Fri. Clearly doesn’t think FL/VA locked, takes time from OH, CO, WI…”

Donald Draper on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

…or,as was mentioned elsewhere and here, both fl and va have important Senate races, and doing well in both states, mitt wants to remind people that there is a senate republican majority needed as well

runner on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Obama only up 7 with a D+13 Sample??? LOL

2008 was D+7 in PA; and we already know it the DEM advantage will be less this time around.

Romney is most likely leading PA right now.

Norwegian on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

The only concession speech I will settle for is Barky and Mooch screaming “WAIT FOR US!” as they scramble across the White House roof towards a hovering helicopter, silverware and candlesticks falling from their half-opened suitcases, and a mob of outraged American citizens just steps behind.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

HAHAHAHA!

Mord on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Tingles will be in meltdown mode if PA goes for mitt

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Grass Roots baby!!!

patman77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Hooah.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I really don’t like the fate of the nation resting on Philadelphia and its suburbs.

SouthernGent on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

If Obama thinks he is going to lose, somebody needs to watch what is going on behind the scenes. He will be hiding info, sending money to dems and buddies, and robbing the store blind until Jan. 20th 2013.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I think the store has already been cleaned out. The shelves are looking rather empty already.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Wow. If PA gets called for Romney, 11/6 will be over by 10 pm.

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

This will be the one to watch.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

You have to remember though, the old media is very reluctant to call any state for a Republican. They’ll hold off until the bitter end.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Wait wait wait… They polled 50% Democrats and the President couldn’t make it to 50%?

That is a big f’en deal, as our VP likes to say. Wow.

strictnein on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Cautiously optimistic

I got family in the Pittsburgh area….. libs to the core dang it

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Mother-in-law lives in Philly
(Former Democrat) wife calls her mom
Wife doesn’t hang up phone till she get a promise
Mother-in-law agrees to vote for Mitt or not vote at all

Grass Roots baby!!!

patman77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Bill Bennett’s…The Power of 10!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The Philly suburbs will be the difference this time round.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Ed left out the best part of the data:

Southeast PA (undefined but presumably excludes Philadelphia County because it is listed separately):
Oct: Obama 45, Romney 47
Sept: Obama 54, Romney 36

blammm on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

If it’s close in PA, OH is Mitt’s.

Ronnie on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM
Mitt Romney put his dog on top of his car 30 years ago.

Something for you racists to mull over before you cast your ballot.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

…you Republiturds are very insensitive about the bully haircut that happened in high school too!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

and he didn’t release his tax returns for the last 60 years. Grrr!

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If it’s close in PA, OH is Mitt’s.

Ronnie on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Being from western PA I can testify to the truth of the above statement.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

I suggest you homophobes remember that little tidbit on voting day.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

And Michelle Obama has an expensive dress collection.

Next trivial point?

pilamaye on October 31, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Still looks like enthusiasm will be a big effing deal in PA…and everywhere else.

swinia sutki on October 31, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Keith Backer at Battleground Watch noticed something very interesting with this poll when he looked at it last night, LV=RV. It may be much closer than the top line is showing.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/31/franklin-marshall-wastes-your-time-with-a-registered-voter-poll/

Long Legged MacDaddy on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM
Perhaps they did, you KKK’er, but I know for sure that Ann used the tortured bodies of Iraqi civilians as ground cover so her horse’s hooves wouldn’t be soiled by dirt or mud.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Bishop, I am sooo, tired of that er, tired accusation that I am a KKK’er. Look, just because I shook Sen Robert Byrds hand at a visit he made to Bragg, doesn’t mean I was one myself.

Say that again and you’ll be hearing from my lawyer’s firm, Dewey, Cheetham and Howe.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

In addition, Romney has a 16 point advantage with Indy’s. So what do they do? they weight Indy’s at 11%.

Comical

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Mitt Romney put his dog on top of his car 30 years ago.

Something for you racists to mull over before you cast your ballot.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Romney put a dog on his car.

Obama put a dog on his plate.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

A D+3 model in PA? Good Grief, you guys have no clue.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

But a D+8 model in Ohio shows how brilliant the pollsters are. Isn’t that right gumby? Ohio was only D+5 in the 2008 “historic” election and PA was only D+7. Obama is going down.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

And michelle obama is what the horse left behind.

Ronnie on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Ed, is this poll analyzing something you like to do? I know you are a numbers guy. I’d just like to think that you are enjoying this rather than groaning every time a new poll is released.

Cindy Munford on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I think you have to factor in Sandy on the vote in PA. The eastern part of the state, including Philly, took a major hit, which should significantly depress the inner city vote. In 2008, Obama carried PA by a little more than 600,000 votes, about 500,000 of which came from the two congressional districts in the inner city.

Romney’s strength, as is usual for PA Republicans, is in the Philly suburbs and the central and west part of the state, including Pittsburgh.

Both campaigns announced very recently significant ad buys in Philly, Romney targeting the suburb vote and Obama the inner city vote. While the suburbs took on damage, the inner city is going to be very difficult to get around in and power outages are expected to continue through the election.

Bottom line, Romney was closing the gap anyway, but this inner city vote problem, which you can’t accurately poll now, is probably going to guarantee an R victory and, without PA’s 20 EVs, he’s toast, for sure.

TXUS on October 31, 2012 at 11:03 AM

You have to remember though, the old media is very reluctant to call any state for a Republican. They’ll hold off until the bitter end.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

FoxNews won’t hold off. Once one network calls it for Romney, at least some of the others will have to follow suit. Especially if he picks off a state like PA or MI.

As for the FL, VA, and OH campaign stops, the Senate races are the other factor in going there. Each state has a pickup opportunity for the GOP, so it would be foolish to not try to rally support at least a few more times before next Tuesday.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Bitter clingers: revenge is within your grasp!

cheetah2 on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Southeast PA (undefined but presumably excludes Philadelphia County because it is listed separately):
Oct: Obama 45, Romney 47
Sept: Obama 54, Romney 36

blammm on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I know this is just one poll, but am I going to have to put PA in R/R’s column already? After Susquehanna, a poll I had thought was an outlier, I need to see what Gallop and Ras have for PA.

I’m putting PA in toss up as of right now out of “leans Obama”.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Cautiously optimistic

I got family in the Pittsburgh area….. libs to the core dang it

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Not sure about your relatives, but Pittsburgh/Western PA is definitely not Liberal. Conservative on every issue but Unions.

reddevil on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

you guys have no clue.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

…keep sniffing the gluegumme !

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

since i don’t know what d+ is normal in PA. i can’t tell

any info anybody

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Well look at the historical numbers at the end of the article.

It appears the 37% is a safe bet for Republican numbers, but this poll seems to boost Democrats hard at the expense of Independents. Look at the rise of Indies between 2008 and 2010, and yet here they’re only 11%? No way.

I’d say a safe bet would be that it’s no more Democrat than 42/37/20. That would mean Democrats are significantly over-sampled here at the expense of the Indies that break to Romney 48-32.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Women’s United Ad…needs to go viral

When They Called; President Obama failed on Benghazi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtFH-FcAR9U&feature=player_embedd

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/10/womens-group-slams-obama-for-abandoning-seals-in-benghazi-video

workingclass artist on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

You have to remember though, the old media is very reluctant to call any state for a Republican. They’ll hold off until the bitter end.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

..yeah, but NONE OF THEM love getting scooped. MadCow was forced to call the Walker race when Fox or NBC led. They’ll fold like a cheap card table if it’s a landslide.

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Ann Romney has an expensive horse.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

And Sarah Jessica Parker is friendly with the Obamas. I call that a push.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

It all depends on which Democrats turn out? White working class males? They’ll got for Romney, hard. Suburban Democrat females? They’ll go for Obama.

So lets hope lots of the first show up, and few of the second. :-)

Greg Q on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Adjust the turnout model to match 2008 and that puts Romney up by 1%.
Adjust the turnout model to match 2008 and that puts Romney up by 5%.

steebo77 on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

In 2008, the D/R/I was 44/37/18
In 2010 it was 40/37/23

Well I’m a little confused. So R37 is about max? If that is true then with the enthusiasm gap and hard breaking indies, will be the only way.
But I think it is very possible that will be precisely what happens.

Al Hall on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Let me try that again:

Adjust the turnout model to match 2008 and that puts Romney up by 1%.
Adjust the turnout model to match 2010 and that puts Romney up by 5%.

steebo77 on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

And Michelle Obama has an expensive dress collection.

Next trivial point?

pilamaye on October 31, 2012 at 11:02 AM

So you’re willing to dismiss the fact that Ann Romney has expensive steeds while average Americans go hungry?

Nice.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

If Obama thinks he is going to lose, somebody needs to watch what is going on behind the scenes. He will be hiding info, sending money to dems and buddies, and robbing the store blind until Jan. 20th 2013.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

The bigger problem is going to be all the executive orders and Presidential pardons that get passed between Election Day and Romney’s inauguration.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Is it okay to be “cautiously optimistic”?

I don’t think I can survive the let down if . . . I can’t bring myself to say it . . .

I just keep wondering what’s up with Intrade.

rebuzz on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

The Philly suburbs will be the difference this time round.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Hope you’re right

workingclass artist on October 31, 2012 at 11:10 AM

You have to remember though, the old media is very reluctant to call any state for a Republican. They’ll hold off until the bitter end.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Just like the rat-eared wonder himself.

I wonder if he’ll actually concede the election or book an appearance on Letterman and let it be known that he and Mooch are headed to Hawaii in January. If he loses PA, he could even book that appearance on November 6th.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Mitt Romney put his dog on top of his car 30 years ago.

Something for you racists to mull over before you cast your ballot.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

He also collected cans and raised money for disaster victims. The bastard.

29Victor on October 31, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I just keep wondering what’s up with Intrade.

rebuzz on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

It’s data that’s too easily manipulated. I don’t play InTrade anyway, and I think most conservatives wouldn’t either.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Good to know reddevil….family big time union members cant change their minds :(

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 11:14 AM

But…but…this does not account for his recent awesomeness in being safely put away in a DC bunker while yammering to file those on line FEMA claims in areas that were without power…I am guessing the Blightbringer will be up 10 by Sun…/

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 11:14 AM

So you’re willing to dismiss the fact that Ann Romney has expensive steeds while average Americans go hungry?

Nice.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

The average American has cable TV and an iPhone. They can eat that.

Ronnie on October 31, 2012 at 11:15 AM

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