Roanoke College poll puts Romney up 5 over Obama in VA

posted at 10:01 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier today, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll put Mitt Romney down two points in Virginia, despite leading among independents by 21, thanks to a D+8 sample that had GOP turnout ten points lower than in 2009 and six points lower than 2008.  Roanoke College surveyed likely voters in Virginia in roughly the same time period, and found quite a different result.  Romney lead Barack Obama by five in their final poll, 49/44, with internals that look pretty familiar:

Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% – 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll conducted after the Presidential debates. Republican George Allen also enjoys a 5 point lead over Democrat Tim Kaine (47% – 42%) in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 638 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 23 and October 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney’s lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen’s lead to 51 percent to 39 percent. …

Romney now leads among men (52% – 39%), Republicans (95% – 4%), Conservatives (87% – 9%), and those aged 50-64 (55% – 37%), 65 or older (61% – 36%), and white voters (61% – 33%). Obama still holds strong leads among Democrats (94% – 2%), Liberals (89% – 8%), younger voters 18-34 years old (55% – 28%), and African-Americans (89% – 6%), but his lead among women has statistically disappeared (48% – 47%).

Romney leads among those who identify themselves as Independents (59% – 33%), but Obama leads among self-described political moderates by a similar margin (54% – 35%). More than half of Independents (52%) think of themselves as Moderate, while 34 percent are Conservative, and 9 percent are Liberal. A plurality of Moderates (42%) are Democrats, while slightly fewer (40%) are Independents, and only 14 percent are Republicans. A plurality of Independents (47%) are moderate, while one-third (35%) are conservative and only 13 percent are liberal. This helps to explain why Obama leads among Moderates but trails among Independents.

One interesting point from the crosstabs is the effect that the debates had on late deciders.  Romney led among those who had already made up their minds by the time of the debates, 51/46 over Obama.  For those who waited until after the debates, the split is a whopping eighteen points, 53/35 Romney.  That suggests that there were few people truly undecided in Virginia, since it doesn’t seem to have impacted the toplines, but that Obama lost the debate season in this key swing state by a wide margin.  That may play out more significantly in other swing states.

Romney wins significantly on the top issues.  On reducing unemployment, Romney gets a 12-point lead, 53/41, and on the deficit it’s even wider at 55/36.  Romney gets an edge on Obama on taxes at 48/44, but Obama gets a five-point lead on foreign policy.  Overall, though, Romney wins the “strongest leader” question by four, 48/44.

The sample split in this case isn’t terribly favorable to Romney, either.  The D/R/I is 35/31/30, which compares to 39/33/27 in 2008, and 33/37/30 in 2009.  This also seems to undersample Republicans in relation to the last two elections.  We’ll see whether this model pans out, but don’t be surprised to see something closer to 2009 than 2008.

Update: I had an error in my first sentence. Romney led independents by 21 in the CBS/NYT/Q-poll, not six; I was looking at Ohio from my previous post.  I’ve fixed it above.


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Atomic bomb :)

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Is this the poll gumby is whacking to?

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Poor Tom Kaine, can’t catch a break

onetrickpony on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Is this the poll gumby is whacking to?

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I hope you mean whacking himself in the head with a baseball bat.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 AM

We are going to ignore this poll and focus on the ones showing Obama leading
-lsm

Pathetic but that’s what they’ll do

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Ahahahahaha, this isn’t going to be close, yet the trolls want us to believe that Obama is winning. It really is going to be a little sad at how devastated the left is going to be, but I’ll get over it in a few seconds.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

CRUSH THEM.

greggriffith on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Ed: Romney doesn’t lead O by 6 in VA with indys. He leads him by 21.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Walker in 2012. And now the big finish. And gumbus being wrong on both makes it all the sweeter.

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Is this the poll gumby is whacking to?

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

…no!…at this point gumme is tying his testicles behind his ears and running in freeway traffic!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

You dropped a bomb on me, baby.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 AM

D+4 and Allen leads… That’s a good sign there.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 AM

The sample split in this case isn’t terribly favorable to Romney, either. The D/R/I is 35/31/30, which compares to 39/33/27 in 2008, and 33/37/30 in 2009.

The bottom line.

farsighted on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM

…no!…at this point gumme is tying his testicles behind his ears and running in freeway traffic!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I didn’t realize you could stretch something the size of a pea that far.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Is this the poll gumby is whacking to?

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

…no!…at this point gumme is tying his testicles behind his ears and running in freeway traffic!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I think he broke the thing

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Obviously this can’t be true, CBS and IPSOS have already spoken and found Obama up in Virginia.

Right Gumby!

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney’s lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen’s lead to 51 percent to 39 percent. …

L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E

kevinkristy on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

By the way, these guys aren’t right-wing boosters either. They had Obama up 8 in September, when the RCP average was around Obama by 4.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Wait- skew it 6 points to the Democrats like CBS/NYT and you get another Obama win.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E

kevinkristy on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I hadn’t caught that. Nice

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Ed..
You are going to have to slow down with the poll posts..

Gumby can’t catch up.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Shows you how absurd it is to really trust polling. How can Romney be up by five and down by two at roughly the same time? It’s trite but the only poll that matters is on November 6th (thankfully VA does not have early voting) and ground game is going to matter in VA, OH, and other close swing states.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Gumby can’t catch up.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

HAL, Dbare and the chump have gotten up. They are on the job.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Nate Silver has run this poll through his magic abacus and has determined that Obama now has a 133.632883% chance of winning.

mudskipper on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

HAL, Dbare and the chump have gotten up. They are on the job.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

somewhere … the word “blow”…is missing in your sentence!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Good.
Do these dolts not realize that overstating Obama’s numbers will just motivate a greater R turnout?

Mimzey on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Gumby can’t catch up.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

It’s still trying to counter my Ohio argument on the other thread.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Ras still has Obama at 47

47 is what he will get max

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Romney leads… white voters (61% – 33%)…

And hence Romney wins in Virginia…

mnjg on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 AM

LOLOLOLOL!!!!

…no!…at this point gumme is tying his testicles behind his ears and running in freeway traffic!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I didn’t realize you could stretch something the size of a pea that far.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I wish I could think as fast as you!!!

herm2416 on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Ras still has Obama at 47

47 is what he will get max

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

The # that will haunt him the rest of his life…he built it himself.

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 10:28 AM

FINISH HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!

brut4ce on October 31, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Romney still up by two nationally with Rasmussen.

Obama continues to lag, while Romney holds the lead going into the final week.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Since when is 5 points a narrow margin? If it were O over Romney by 5 points, it would be a blowout.

Bob's Kid on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

But Nate Silver and Simon Jackman both have Obama winning Virginia!!! How can this be?!?

steebo77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

One interesting point from the crosstabs is the effect that the debates had on late deciders. Romney led among those who had already made up their minds by the time of the debates, 51/46 over Obama. For those who waited until after the debates, the split is a whopping eighteen points, 53/35 Romney. That suggests that there were few people truly undecided in Virginia, since it doesn’t seem to have impacted the toplines, but that Obama lost the debate season in this key swing state by a wide margin. That may play out more significantly in other swing states.

Romney wins significantly on the top issues. On reducing unemployment, Romney gets a 12-point lead, 53/41, and on the deficit it’s even wider at 55/36. Romney gets an edge on Obama on taxes at 48/44, but Obama gets a five-point lead on foreign policy. Overall, though, Romney wins the “strongest leader” question by four, 48/44.

Anyone who is voting for Obama is not paying attention. No one can look at the reality of who Obama is in practice and in person and not be disgusted with the guy as President. The only people who continue to think he’s cool are those who are still expecting some cash in an envelope. A very grimy envelope. With “don’t ask any questions” scrawled on the bills. That have grimy greasy globs of crud on them.

Lourdes on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Wait- skew it 6 points to the Democrats like CBS/NYT and you get another Obama win.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

This poll is D+4. In 2008, VA was D+6. In 2004, R+4… If anything this poll is already skewed a couple toward the Democrats.

But yeah, spot Barry another 6 or so, and maybe he pulls a tie in a D+10 poll.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Good.
Do these dolts not realize that overstating Obama’s numbers will just motivate a greater R turnout?
Mimzey on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Yep, nothing will stop us from defeating Obama. The more they try to demoralize us, the more determined we will be.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

It used to be that even CBS and the Times wanted their last poll before the election to at least come close to the actual numbers; judging by the samplings and the Roanoke poll, that’s no longer a factor — they’ve shaped their front page news hole under Pinch for so long to create the world as they want it to be, they don’t care if they get lambasted over errant polling come Wednesday.

If Romney wins and the D/R/I turnout is far different from their models, the Times especially will simply either pretend their craptastic polling never happened or — from the paper’s Krugman wing of alternate reality — they’ll actually say the final vote totals were wrong/fixed by the GOP, their polls were right and obviously the only reason the final results were so different was due to massive Republican vote fraud.

jon1979 on October 31, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Want some free money? Go to intrade and sell Romney wins by .5% ($4) and buy Romney wins ($3.50). It’s arbitrage time.

pedestrian on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Don’t worry – Mittens’ bungling of the hurricane is the first of a couple of final nails in his coffin.

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

You’ve been trolling here since 2008. Get a life.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

But Nate Silver and Simon Jackman both have Obama winning Virginia!!! How can this be?!?

steebo77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

For he is the Kwiktax Benghaziac! (?)

Battlecruiser-operational on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Oh and while I know you’ll run away from this, but why the hell do you post here drywall? You live in Canada. Go bitch about Harper.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Drywall, why do you post here? You can’t vote in American elections.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The lamentations of their womyn will be glorious

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

…that you’re in the throes of stage 3?…when initially… penicilin shots could have prevented it?

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

You’ve been trolling here since 2008. Get a life.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:45 AM
——

Ohhhhh I’ve been pointing out the bullshit around here lonnnng before that.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Drywall, why do you post here? You can’t vote in American elections.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

——–

So what you’re saying is you want all non-Americans to be banned from Hotair.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Axelrod: “This will be clear proof that VA wants to rejoin the Confederacy. Therefore, we will not count their votes.”

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

No one cares what you think.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

…that you’re in the throes of stage 3?…when initially… penicilin shots could have prevented it?

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM
——

ha ha ha let us go back to 2008 when you were all in such denial in the face of the obvious reality of the polling, and Obama crushed you. Just like the polls said he would.

This time around, the numbers show virtual mathematical impossibility of Mittens winning, yet you cling to the most hilarious cherrypicking of polls to help you think you’re going to win – and actually win big.

I applaud your dedication/delusion/denial. Clap clap clap.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

No one cares what you think.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM
—–

Then stop responding, little girl.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I guess the media have setup their final polls with an oversample of D’s and do not care if they are seriously wrong on election day;
if the D’s don’t turn out as projected, then the people let them down, and it is their fault, not the media or its polls.

Frht451.1 on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Don’t worry – Mittens’ bungling of the hurricane is the first of a couple of final nails in his coffin.

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Must have missed the “bungling”, Davey, was it another gaaaffffffffe?

Romney has been busy distributing actual aid, Obama was photographed at a table watching some LCD monitors.

Just because Andrea Mitchell told you that handing out food without Red Cross permission was a bad thing, it doesn’t automatically make it true.

mudskipper on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Axelrod: “This will be clear proof that VA wants to rejoin the Confederacy. Therefore, we will not count their votes.”

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Did you hear what he said on the Moaning Joe show this morning? He’ll shave his mustache off, live on the air, if the boy king loses MN, MI, or PA.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Speaking of which, why didn’t Obama stop the storm?

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

He’ll shave his mustache off, live on the air, if the boy king loses MN, MI, or PA.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If Obama loses, Axelrod will never be heard from again. He could shave off his cue balls, and nobody would notice.

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Don’t worry – Mittens’ bungling of the hurricane is the first of a couple of final nails in his coffin.

The denial around here is breathtaking.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Yeah, God forbid that Romney would express concern for his fellow citizens. God forbid that private citizens would do what they can to ease the need of those effected by a hurricane instead of waiting around for government intervention.

It’s an American thing, you wouldn’t understand.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Speaking of which, why didn’t Obama stop the storm?

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Don’t you understand? The storm the rat-eared wonder was far worse than anybody knew. So, while a good portion of the Jersey shore is devastated, it would have been far worse without the policies this administration put in place. Obama needs another four years to actually make the seas recede but now is not the time to go back to the bad old policies of GWB instead of pushing on. Forward!

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:07 AM

My Old Dominion, I love thee. Now take it home.

mrsknightley on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

But all the media pundits are telling us we should IGNORE the polls, for they are now all evil and are reporting Romney is leading, and they are not centered in reality and excuse after excuse after excuse, etc etc etc, blah blah blah….

pilamaye on October 31, 2012 at 11:11 AM

He’ll shave his mustache off, live on the air, if the boy king loses MN, MI, or PA.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

What do we need to do to get Janet Napolitano to shave hers?

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Can someone fill me in on how “Candidate” Romney managed to “bungle” an emergency response he had no control over?

What? Did he tell a bunch of people with no electricity to look a the internet to figure out how to deal with the storm?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Just as importantly : Allen ahead of Kaine.

bayview on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’m prepping my DVR recordings now to tape the liberal MELTDOWN come next Tues. It will be pure schadenfruede. An absolute train-wreck worth the pure comedy to watch over, and over, and over again.

My most watched list will be:
- DWS – She will outright just lie and say election isn’t true
- Stephanie Cutter – will stutter in disbelief with mouth agape
- Tingles Matthew – will say the country is racist again
- Paul “I never met a Gov’t dollar I didn’t like” Krugman
- Jay Carney – will utter “let me be clear” 368 times this is no mandate for repubs.

And a special place is reserved for Nate “Ain’t no poll, like a Democrat poll” Silver. I might glue myself to the 538 blog to just read in amazement the contortions on number crunching on why his model was actually right in being wrong..

rgrovr on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Nate Silver will have to change his name to Nate Bronze after the election

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Yeah, God forbid that Romney would express concern for his fellow citizens. God forbid that private citizens would do what they can to ease the need of those effected by a hurricane instead of waiting around for government intervention.

It’s an American thing, you wouldn’t understand.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:04 AM
——
1
Yes, tell us how the government has been dragging its heels.

2
By now, if you’re too stupid to ask what assistance is required as opposed to just going out and gathering cans of soup , then yeah you’re just too stupid to help.

3
“It’s an American thing”

People helping people out after a disaster is an American thing?
ha ha ha ha you’re an enormous clown.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Can someone fill me in on how “Candidate” Romney managed to “bungle” an emergency response he had no control over?

What? Did he tell a bunch of people with no electricity to look a the internet to figure out how to deal with the storm?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:20 AM
——

His attempts to make himself look presidential from the sidelines has been laughable.

And politicizing a relief event is beyond sleazy.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Nate Silver will have to change his name to Nate Bronze after the election

faraway on October 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM
——-

Wait you said this same lame thing 4 years ago when you were sure McCain/Palin would triumph big.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Gumbyandpokey can’t be them. It’s gotta be the Block Heads posing as them online to make them look dumb.

TheDriver on October 31, 2012 at 11:34 AM

And politicizing a relief event is beyond sleazy.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Why don’t you go talk to Bill Clinton, babe?

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 11:37 AM

TO all the trolls – please. TO everyone else – and I apologize for the length.

OK – everyone – stop feeding the trolls.

Some “facts” from the craziness. The following are things that have trended true across a variety of polling throughout the fall/late summer:

The gender gap has been almost neutered – in essence Obama is losing women votes – the recent Ohio gap is the outlier (Women +11)

Obama is losing Indies by almost 20pts from 2008. There have been a few random polls for Obama but overall this has been Romney, Romney and more Romney. I don’t disagree a Romney +25 or something in VA sounds crazy – but a Romney +10-15 does not. It is why Suffolk quit polling the state.

Obama is losing Catholics overall and white Catholics by double digits. The HHS mandate was just plain stupid. This will be real bad for Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvannia and is probably why Minnesota is in play as it is eating into his support in the traditional working man, blue collar catholic areas of the twin cities and Duluth.

Early turnout is not going Obama’s way – the most recent Gallop news seems to be consistent with what all the SoS reports show. This has impacted most of the polling because all of them – including Ras have higher early voting numbers – in Obama’s favor – than what is happening. Nevada is the one place that the improvement may not be enough – but we will see.

Enthusiasm is pro GOP and has been throughout. And pollsters have been working on assumptions on youth voting at enthusiasm levels that no one trusts. They also have been using voting screens for LV that are by no means accurate – way too much dem bias – and if we are to believe that the voting numbers will be down as is being reoprted recently, even Ras’ screen is too loose. This all over-estimates dem strength.

We have all been all over the splits. Anybody messing with a D+5 split or over is just deliberately lying.

The fighting is going on in battleground and blue-ish states; not redish ones. And if Romney is making headfakes to overstate strength, Obama must think there is something more because he has responded – even in Detroit.

The hurricane did very little damage in the states where there are races we are watching – the awful things going on in NY and NJ in particular will just eat into Obama’s overall vote total and make Romney’s popular vote win a tad bit larger. In fact, if NJ and Conn are remotely in play – this really hurts Obama, because his voters historically are less likely to vote while Romney’s are – this could help McMahon in CT. And in VA and NC, the voters Romney needs will be more likely to show up regardless. I don’t think Sandy has much impact either way, but in voter suppression impacts they are against Obama.

In Ohio in particular, Obama was banking on building up Romney as so vile no one would vote for him. For Ohio to break against Romney while his national lead is somewhere between 3-6% would be historic. But the voting registration worked against Obama as the Acorn fraud from 2008 is cleaned up. Early voting is trending against Obama from 2008, rather significantly, and there is no indication of any ground excitment for Obama. In fact, there isn’t much ground excitement for Obama anywhere.

So – chill everyone. Could Obama still win? Yep. Does the current situation favor him? No. Where are the fights currently happening? Obama’s turf. He is playing defense. You play defense, you lose. he is losing and most likely will.

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I was going to comment on Virginia, but since Drywall is here: please come back on the night of the 6th and take your medicine like Gumby…

Thank you very much…

Khun Joe on October 31, 2012 at 11:43 AM

His attempts to make himself look presidential from the sidelines has been laughable.

Obama. “Official Seal of the Office of the President-Elect”, 2008.

And politicizing a relief event is beyond sleazy.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Democrats. Katrina.

In each case, pot, kettle.

cheers

eon

eon on October 31, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Wow, you really are a bitter rectal orifice.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:45 AM

And politicizing a relief event is beyond sleazy.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Dems happy dance when the death toll in Iraq went above some milestone number is sleazy.

Dems turning Paul Wellstone’s funeral into a campaign rally was sleazy.

Dems shifting all blame for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on GWB and FEMA instead of Kathleen Blanco and Ray Nagin was sleazy.

A guy collecting food for those in need- not so much. It may not be the most effective way of providing assistance but that doesn’t make it sleazy. And, BTW, if the rat-eared wonder showing up in Jersey today isn’t political, what is it?

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:50 AM

And so we have another HA “Trolls Gone Wild” thread.

farsighted on October 31, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Breaking Down The Roanoke College Poll

* R is +26 with Independents.

* R has a +28 advantage with white voters (over 60%, which hasn’t been seen since 1984 Reagan landslide).

* O favourable/unfavourable is unchanged +2 (48/46) since last month.

* R f/u is +10 (49/39)and is up significantly from last month.

* Paul Ryan’s fav/unfav is +9 (48/39).

* Joe Biden’s f/u is -5 (42/47).

* R is +12 on unemployment (53% – 41%)

* R is +4 on taxes (48% – 44%), but is within MOE.

* R is +4 on immigration (46% – 42%)

* R is +19 on dealing with the budget deficit (55%-36%)

* O is +6 on foreign policy (49% – 43%).

* O is +4 on Medicare (48% – 44%), but is within MOE.

* R & O are statistically tied on Social Security (45/44).

* R & O are tied on health care (47/47).

* O still leads on who is perceived to understand Virginians better (56/53), but is within MOE.

* R is +4 on stronger leader (48/44), but is within MOE.

* 51% say economy is most important issue.

* 9% say jobs/unemployment.

* 4% say budget deficit.

* 6% say women’s issues/abortion.

* 58% say country is on wrong track (38% right track).

* Voters deciding after debates started choose R by +18.

* R has +13 advantage with men (52/39).

* R has a +18 advantage with the 55-64 age group (55/37).

* R has a +25 advantage with the 65+ age group (61/36).

* O has a +1 advantage with women (48/47), but is within the MOE.

* O has a +27 advantage with the 18-34 age group (55/28).

* O has a +1 advantage with crossover (9/8), but is within the MOE.

* Both pull their party members within MOE (R: 95, O: 94).

* O won 92% of the African-American vote in 2008. He is attracting 89% in 2012.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Get ready for D+15 polls by Friday. And D+20 on Sunday.

riddick on October 31, 2012 at 12:43 PM

So what you’re saying is you want all non-Americans to be banned from Hotair.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Not at all. You’re always delightful…hypocritical, but no less a delight to observe.

This, just for you.

2012 is NOT 2008. That foolery is gone.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Perfect depiction of Obama and his abilities

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Yeah, God forbid that Romney would express concern for his fellow citizens. God forbid that private citizens would do what they can to ease the need of those effected by a hurricane instead of waiting around for government intervention.

It’s an American thing, you wouldn’t understand.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 11:04 AM

——-

Just to be safe, campaign aides reportedly spent $5,000 at a local Wal-Mart on supplies that could be put on display. When supporters arrived at the rally-turned-relief event, they were treated to the 10-minute video about Romney’s life, which was first unveiled at the RNC. The event ended with supporters lined up to hand over supplies and meet Romney. But according to BuzzFeed, this donation process was also staged:

Empty-handed supporters pled for entrance, with one woman asking, “What if we dropped off our donations up front?”

The volunteer gestured toward a pile of groceries conveniently stacked near the candidate. “Just grab something,” he said.

Two teenage boys retrieved a jar of peanut butter each, and got in line. When it was their turn, they handed their “donations” to Romney. He took them, smiled, and offered an earnest “Thank you.”

———

Awesome.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 1:58 PM

But Nate Silver and Simon Jackman both have Obama winning Virginia!!! How can this be?!?

steebo77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Did you get up in the middle of the night to read that like I did?

BWAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Can’t wait until this silliness is over and the howls of “racism” start.

SIGH

kim roy on October 31, 2012 at 1:59 PM

So it sounds like Governor Romney used a redistributive process to make sure that those that couldn’t afford to give something were still able to get into line. That’s IF I believe the foreign trolls.

How is this different from democratics that take from the producers at the point of a gun to redistribute to their supporters? The proggies think that’s charity.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 3:03 PM

I can’t wait to hear the words, EARLY on election night from CNN: “Obama is out? OBAMA is out!?”

I’ll then head over to MSNBC to drink deep the anger and denial.

Then I’ll go to sleep, afraid of what the boy-king may do with the next two and a half months to punish the country that rejected him.

makattak on October 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

I’ve lost all respect for quinapiac, esp since they began working for the NYT. This is one of the most egregious sampling cases I’ve seen.

paul1149 on October 31, 2012 at 5:08 PM

It’s great to see George Allen up 5 over Tom Kaine…

Dopenstrange on October 31, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Clap clap clap.

Dave Rywall on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

…you have THE clap?…I was talking syphilis!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:59 PM