PPP: Obama leads by 5 in Ohio, 50/45 …

posted at 12:41 pm on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

No wonder David Axelrod thinks that Barack Obama can win Ohio without winning independents.  According to the latest Buckeye State poll from PPP, they only need an extra five points from non-Democrats to get a majority:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.

Oh, let’s just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample.  The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home.  In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28.  Has anyone produced any evidence of such a wave of Democratic enthusiasm?  Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.

PPP also is one of the few polls to show independents not breaking significantly to Romney.  Instead, PPP has them both tied at 45% with six days left to go.  The 10% undecided in this case would probably have to break toward the challenger, since Obama’s underwater with independents on favorability (46/48) and especially on job approval (42/50).

This poll is good for a laugh, but that’s about it.

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We were laughing at this one at the Victory Center today.

Man, it is gonna be a blue day for the Dems and MSDNC. And I don’t mean the color.

When does the suicide watch begin on Chris Mathews?

KirknBurker on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

When does the suicide watch begin on Chris Mathews?

KirknBurker on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

We must assist in any way possible. Its the least we should do.

riddick on October 31, 2012 at 7:25 PM

There are dozens of professional polling organizations who have conducted literally hundreds of state surveys during the most recent three presidential elections. So there is a huge data set out there. We know the predicted averages vs. actual totals for Bush, Kerry, McCain, Obama at this point. And there were very few surprises in the end both in 2004 and 2008.

I can certainly accept that states such as CO, NH, VA, IA could go either way this time, but not Wisconsin or Nevada or Ohio. In 2008 the final RealClearPolitics prediction was Obama was going win Ohio 48.8%-46.3% based on likely voter polls. In 2004, “Shrub” was the favorite 48.8%-46.7%. And this year, Obama is favored to win Ohio 48.9%-46.6% according to the same RCP pollsters! Why conservatives think this year is going to be totally different is a total mystery to me…. In particular since Mitt’s national lead appears to be little more than a mirage. You have about ten national pollsters, eight of which are saying the candidates are tied, the 9th (Rasmussen) thinks Romney is ahead by 2%-3% and finally Gallup says a 51%-45% Romney landslide is imminent.

It does seem like reality is starting to sink in a bit here, though. Any time when you are furiously dissecting the internals of polls because you hate the overall result, you are losing.

mlindroo on November 1, 2012 at 4:33 PM

When does the suicide watch begin on Chris Mathews?

Not soon enough.

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 8:01 AM

And this year, Obama is favored to win Ohio 48.9%-46.6% according to the same RCP pollsters!

RCP is the average of all polls. When you take the polls with moderate to serious credibility (i.e. Gallup, Rausmussen, etc) and average them out, BUT throw a poll in like the PPP poll or any NBC poll, the average gets skewed, thus the “average” is misleading and not entirely accurate. Geez, get a clue. That’s basic statistics.

In particular since Mitt’s national lead appears to be little more than a mirage.

Actually, the only mirage out there is der Fürher Obama’s job creation numbers.

You have about ten national pollsters, eight of which are saying the candidates are tied, the 9th (Rasmussen) thinks Romney is ahead by 2%-3% and finally Gallup says a 51%-45% Romney landslide is imminent.

Yes, and both of which are widely known and proven to be the most accurate. Once again, go look at the internals of the poll. Most of which over sample Dems, and yet the race is still “tied” or a 2-3 point Romney lead. Could it be, maybe that those “Reagan Democrats” are going to vote for Romney this year!? GASP!!!!

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 8:10 AM

WE NEED TO WIN THIS BY 5 or MORE! I want the left so demoralized they can’t see for a month!

I want it to be so bad it drives Chris Matthews to drink ……… more.

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3