Pew on early voters: Romney leads Obama, running far ahead of McCain ’08

posted at 6:41 pm on October 31, 2012 by Allahpundit

One of the core reasons to support Romney in the primary, for those who did, was that he was the only Republican running with an organization sophisticated enough to match O’s. Here’s the payoff from Pew:

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

Two different approaches here, obviously dictated in part by differences in their respective bases. O’s team is using social media more heavily because they’re trying to turn out younger voters; Team Mitt is focusing on older adults and seniors, so they’re emphasizing direct mail. Not sure what explains the gap in home visits, though, unless it’s a simple question of greater manpower on O’s side:

The obligatory caveat here, in keeping with all the agonizing from analysts lately about the disparity between national polls and state polls, is that not all early votes are equal. If hundreds of thousands of Texans vote early, that’s super, but Romney’s winning that state going away regardless. We’re more interested in early votes in the battleground states. O has the advantage there right now, but Romney’s outperforming McCain again — most notably in Colorado:

* The one state where Republicans have a clear lead is Colorado, where 38 percent of early votes have come from Republicans and 36 percent have come from Democrats. That said, Democrats had just a two-point early vote advantage in 2008 and still won the state by nine points overall…

* In Virginia, early voting isn’t as big a piece of the puzzle, given that it requires a valid excuse to cast an early ballot. But analysts have pointed out that turnout in heavily Democratic areas like Arlington County, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Richmond, Norfolk and Portsmouth is lower than elsewhere in the state. All were among Obama’s top 10 best cities and counties.

Remember, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado are, realistically, all necessary predicates to Romney having two paths to the presidency. If he hits that trifecta, he’s at 257 votes and can get to 270 by winning either Ohio or Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa. So the caveat to the caveat is that not all battleground states are equal either. We don’t care overly much about Nevada or Iowa if early voting in those other four looks good. Although, since we’re on the subject, WaPo says O’s early-voting lead in both NV and IA is shrinking as we speak and bound to finish lower than it was four years ago. Which I guess is why Team Mitt is starting to look more closely at Iowa as a potential upset.

Then there’s the caveat to the caveat to the caveat: How many of these early voters are people who wouldn’t have voted on election day? They’re the important ones, since they’re actually adding to the candidate’s total rather than merely banking votes for him that he would have received next week anyway. It’s hard to gauge, but Henry Olsen at AEI gave it a shot — and says he thinks it bodes well for Romney in Ohio:

I hypothesized that if the Romney campaign’s effort is working, the share of the total 2008 early vote that has already been cast should be higher in strong Romney counties than in strong Obama counties. That’s because if the Romney effort works, total turnout in those counties should be up in 2012, the bulk of that coming from the low-voting-propensity supporters who the campaign is asking to cast early ballots.

Through last Friday, that hypothesis is clearly correct…

Follow the link above for the data. More from Byron York:

“The Gallup numbers nationally confirm what we think is happening here in Ohio,” says one Romney official. “It’s two things. One, their margin of victory in early voting is greatly diminished — drastically diminished. And two, they are having a very difficult time generating enthusiasm among young people.”

Asked for evidence to support those claims, the official cited a Romney tally showing absentee and early voting is ten percent higher in counties McCain won in 2008 than in counties Obama won. He also pointed to sluggish early voting in the Toledo area, which Obama won in ’08, and particularly energetic early voting in the Cincinnati area, which McCain won. In addition, the official argues that Republicans are “outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes” and that the GOP has “closed the gap on Democrats’ historical absentee and early vote advantage for 20 of the past 21 days.”

Read Jay Cost’s post too about the oddity of Ohio polling generally. If pollsters were all making similar assumptions about the electorate there, you’d expect to see them converging around a number at this point. Instead, you see two separate convergences, with one group pegging the race as even or led narrowly by one of the candidates and a separate group pegging it as a four-point or so Obama lead. Awfully hard to believe that the latter group is correct when Romney is now out to his biggest national lead yet in the “likeability gap,” but that’s the polling weirdness we’re staring at right now. Simultaneously, we’re supposed to believe that Barack Obama’s going to win narrowly in virtually every major swing state except Florida, and yet Romney’s going to take the popular vote by a point or more. Ain’t happening. Someone’s wrong.

Oh, one last note about that gruesome Marquette poll of Wisconsin that you may have stumbled across earlier. Charlie Sykes argues that the sample is dubious, essentially expecting Democratic turnout at 2008 levels. That also ain’t happening, and if it was, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and Joe Biden and Paul Ryan and Bill Clinton would all find something better to do with their time.

And with that, my friends, I’ve now reached this point.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 6

Bronco Bama makes me cry, too.

JeffersonFan on October 31, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Caveats! Get yer red hot caveats heah!

Hey! Who wants a caveat!

predator on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Bring it home Mitt. Please.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Crying kid made me laugh.

blue13326 on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Pew on early voters: Romney leads Obama, running far ahead of McCain ’08
…yeah, but all those DEAD PEOPLE who come out to vote for the d-cRAT socialists take longer to get to the polls – understandably.

TeaPartyNation on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

So if this shapes up to be a landslide for Romney, who’s going to be holding all these ‘news agencies’ with their false polls accountable for the aftermath? The 0bama supporters have been assured over and over again that their guy has it in the bag and I think that just a few of them might not be too happy on November 7th.

cynccook on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Pokemygummybear soon to arrive to get this all cleared up for us….

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

O/T: But everyone should check out this New Site: Teaparty News

http://www.tpnn.com/

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

what about the knife in the back of romney by some fat governor?

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Poor, poor Allah. You making out up there okay Allah? I hear New Yorkers are starting to get peeved at 0. True?

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM

TeaPartyNation on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Some votes take longer to dig up than others.

predator on October 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM

He gets a 78% approval on Sandy….something someone should nail at 95-100…why the discrepancy, Americans are fatigued by the guy–period…in school, if I brought home a 78, there was no celebration in the home….

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

akaniku on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Knock, knock.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Voted early in deep blue Montgomery County, Maryland today. I was motivated, even though Mitt will probably be lucky to break 35%.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I can only speak for my husband and I but we were early Ohio voters mainly because he simply could not stand to wait another 2 weeks to vote against 0bama (and for Romney, too, of course.) Personally, I would have been just as happy to go down to the polling station on Election Day.

cynccook on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM

I dropped by and tapped into your still the other day. Hope ya don’t mind. I was getting terribly low.

predator on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

what about the knife in the back of romney by some fat governor?

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

More like he’s taking one for the team. NJ needs those federal funds yesterday. Literally.

cynccook on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Dropped off my ballot today for Romney. It probably won’t matter much since I’m in Oregon, but the deed is done.

Dan_Yul on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Uh Oh

Liberal trolls in 5.4.3.2.1

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I think Iowa could go either way, but after 2010 I’ve about given up on Nevada. How can the state with the nation’s highest unemployment lean Obama? Has the state changed that much since 2004? I think if Romney wins Nevada, he will have already won the election anyway.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Even if you take the D+5 and make the spread even, Romney is still losing in WI, according to the MU poll.

And, btw, that spread is what MU used to nail the recall poll. It would be a bad poll for Mitt even with a more favorable partisan split.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Bronco made me gag today too.
He wants a pat on the back for doing his friggin job for those poor people up north.
Bronco has been so incompetent the past four years that when he actually does his job people are impressed.
The major networks are trying so hard to get Obama reelected they actually cut into regular programs to show him in NJ looking presidential.
I’m gagging again.

bailey24 on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Voted early in deep blue Montgomery County, Maryland today. I was motivated, even though Mitt will probably be lucky to break 35%.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I’m probably in the bluest district in Minnesota but man I’ll be there before the doors open.

My vote doesn’t mean anything in the final tally but it means the world to me.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:54 PM

” Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters …”

:)

*clinky!*

Seven Percent Solution on October 31, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Wouldn’t it be nice if Obama’s best bud, Chris Christie, got a nice teaparty challenger in his 2013 race?

Christie is showing why RINOs can’t be trusted. I wouldn’t mind if NJ went blue just to teach this fat POS Christie a lesson about loyalty.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

GO MITT GO

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Seven Percent Solution on October 31, 2012 at 6:54 PM

heh

*clink*

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 6:56 PM

And with that, my friends, I’ve now reached this point.

(crying child)

I’ve reached that point with the tedium and idiocy of the poll trolls.

Gumby, you still haven’t told me where you live so I can call the SPCA to rescue that poor chicken you have been abusing.

kim roy on October 31, 2012 at 6:56 PM

predator on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

predator!!! Always free to you my friend. Happy to provide. You’re part owner anyway. ; )

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Talk about a vote that won’t count. I’m in Ca. and will also be there when the door opens…

sandee on October 31, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Wouldn’t it be nice if Obama’s best bud, Chris Christie, got a nice teaparty challenger in his 2013 race?

Christie is showing why RINOs can’t be trusted. I wouldn’t mind if NJ went blue just to teach this fat POS Christie a lesson about loyalty.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Christie just killed any chance he had of President. I understand his state is hurting and he needs the funds but dude he went overboard IMO.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I feel your pain. Md. is an absolute wreck. Too bad, beautiful little state.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

And with that, my friends, I’ve now reached this point.

That poor child. I know exactly how she feels. My mute button is about worn out.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Talk about a vote that won’t count. I’m in Ca. and will also be there when the door opens…

sandee on October 31, 2012 at 6:57 PM

:)

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:59 PM

How can any survey show a sample of D+7, when in early voting, Romney is leading in two polls? At worst, this election will be Even if not R+1 or R+2. Early voting was suppose to be an Obama advantage and evidence of Obama’s organizational and ground prowess. Thus far, Romney is outclassing Obama in organization, fund raising and winning independents. The only evidence that Obama is remotely in this race is the polling that have unrealistic samples of Dem turnout.

milemarker2020 on October 31, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Folks, all votes count. Every last one of them.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Levin: “Interesting that Obama only got one guy to accept his visit… Chris Christie. Everyone else said “No”.

Chris Christie and Barack Obama, the Jersey Bromance……

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:00 PM

That poor girl – we know how she feels.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:01 PM

The simple vote against Obama is out the window. Now it is a vote for Romney. It will all be thanks to the first debate. Not only did he rally the indys, he rallied the base more than any McCain/Palin could.

tjexcite on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Uh Oh

Liberal trolls in 5.4.3.2.1

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I know, they’re like mold in a petrie dish. It’s always my cue to find something else to do than read their tired old talking points.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Christie just killed any chance he had of President. I understand his state is hurting and he needs the funds but dude he went overboard IMO.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

And he did a nice job of stabbing Mitt in the back.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Wouldn’t it be nice if Obama’s best bud, Chris Christie, got a nice teaparty challenger in his 2013 race?

Christie is showing why RINOs can’t be trusted. I wouldn’t mind if NJ went blue just to teach this fat POS Christie a lesson about loyalty.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

he would go independent and win. he is cementing his position in NJ with the blood comming from mitts back.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Christie just killed any chance he had of President. I understand his state is hurting and he needs the funds but dude he went overboard IMO.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I will be supporting and donating to whoever runs against Christie in 2013 in NJ. It’s 6 days out from the election and he just stuck a dagger in to our backs.

He better forget about any plans in 2016.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Bronco Billy points at Bronco Bamma’s empty chair

Mark1971 on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

And he did a nice job of stabbing Mitt in the back.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

I liked Christie before this. Now he can just stay in NJ. He can’t be trusted.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

They played that clip on the Fox Special Report hahahaha.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Folks, all votes count. Every last one of them.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Amen. I’ll be voting here in downstate Ill-annoy on the sixth. I’m on vacation now, I wonder if I should dress up like an OWSer, drive to Chi-town, and see if I can vote early in a ward or twenty? Hmmmmm….

predator on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

he would go independent and win. he is cementing his position in NJ with the blood comming from mitts back.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Independent in Jersey, lol. He has zero chance. NJ isn’t Alaska. It’s a deep blue state.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Even if you take the D+5 and make the spread even, Romney is still losing in WI, according to the MU poll.

And, btw, that spread is what MU used to nail the recall poll. It would be a bad poll for Mitt even with a more favorable partisan split.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Obama is going to WI twice more in the last 5 days of the campaign. So they obviously don’t believe it.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Not only did he rally the indys, he rallied the base more than any McCain/Palin could.

tjexcite on October 31, 2012 at 7:02 PM

FIFY

predator on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

akinaku and gumby-Same person?

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I will be supporting and donating to whoever runs against Christie in 2013 in NJ. It’s 6 days out from the election and he just stuck a dagger in to our backs.

He better forget about any plans in 2016.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

He is about to learn a hard lesson – conservatives don’t take lightly to being stabbed in the back and we have very long memories.

We need to start looking for a primary opponent now.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I just voted.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

If the best that pollsters can do is to increase Democratic turnout over 2008 to get Obama to a tie or a lead of a couple of points, then that should tell fair-minded people something.

I have not predicted that Romney will win. I have said that my feeling is that Obama will either squeak out a win or Romney will win by a fairly comfortable margin.

Over the last 4 years, we have had a chance to see people in action. The Tea Party succeeded. OccupyWallStreet failed. Chik-Fil-A Day shocked the MSM. The kiss-in at CFA flopped. The 2010 election was the biggest midterm for Congressional races since 1938 and the biggest for Congressional, state, and local races since 1928.

One predictor of turnout is midterm election turnout. Take a look at the pattern:

In the 1998 midterms, turnout was D+2.

In 2000, turnout was D+4. (An increase of D+2)

In the 2002 midterms, turnout was R+1.

In 2004, turnout was R+2.4. (I’m going with Nate Silver’s number here. Other data suggests that it was R+4, but I think that is high. Anyway, with R+2.4, that’s an increase of R+1.4)

In the 2006 midterms, turnout was D+3.

In 2008, turnout was D+5. (An increase of D+2)

In the 2010 midterms, turnout was R+3.

Notice the pattern? The party that had the advantage in the midterms has the advantage in the following presidential election and increases it. If the pattern holds, the election should be R+?, not D+7,8,9,11,25. Polls with such ridiculous samples should be disregarded. It’s not going to happen.

Pollsters are ignoring the past 4 years. They are basing turnout on either 2008 or even predicting higher Democratic turnout. That is just a prediction not grounded in reality or even poll data. Republicans have held a substantial edge in enthusiasm (10%+) for some time and Independents support Romney by upper-single or double-digits. The amount of Democratic support that would be needed to beat those two — provided that both turn out in the votes as they appear to be doing in the polls — probably doesn’t exist in states outside of California, New York, etc.

I am looking at this realistically. I just don’t know how Obama wins if he loses Independents by upper-single or double-digits and Republicans eat into Democratic turnout in the numbers that data on enthusiasm predict that they will.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:06 PM

I just voted.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I’m not a big fan of early voting but dang I want to vote NOW!

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I liked Christie before this. Now he can just stay in NJ. He can’t be trusted.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

This is why RINOs need to be purged, and why it’s better to have a Dem than a RINO. The MSM will point to the RINO giving cover to the Dems as “bipartisanship” Just like the Maine twins on Obamacare when one of them voted it out of committee. If she hadn’t done that Obamacare would not be “law of the land” right now.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:07 PM

It’s 6 days out from the election and he just stuck a dagger in to our backs.

He better forget about any plans in 2016.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

I don’t know about that, I think he knows that’s the only way he can help his state is to work with the president, who holds the purse strings. Remember when Perry asked for help with the fires in his state and the president turned him down? Remember how he dragged his feet and was pretty much absent during the Gulf oil spill? Some of those folks still haven’t gotten any relief from BP. It would serve no purpose for Christie to play politics or be hostile when his citizens need all the help he can get. There’s plenty of time to criticize the president, and he’s been one of his biggest critics, so that isn’t going to change.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Things are looking worse for Obama by the day.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 7:08 PM

The October Surprise is the polling from the MSM for the Dems

jp on October 31, 2012 at 7:09 PM

He gets a 78% approval on Sandy….something someone should nail at 95-100…why the discrepancy, Americans are fatigued by the guy–period…in school, if I brought home a 78, there was no celebration in the home….

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

It’s hard taking photo ops with storm victims…

Strike Hornet on October 31, 2012 at 7:09 PM

I just voted.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Well, go back and vote again.

Geeesh, some of y’all would forget your shadows if I wasn’t around to remind y’all.

Its an 0bama world now, Newsweek said so.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Chris ChrispyKreme can kiss any chance of nationally elected office goodbye after today’s little sideshow. I knew he was a RINO, but if Romney loses I will personally blame him, as will the state run media give him credit.

The funny thing is that being Obama’s handpuppet today will not make the media love him or save his considerable hide when he is up against Corey Booker. My hope is that President Romney and every other Republican and Conservative will be too busy restoring our country to worry about his re-election.

Rockshine on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Even if you take the D+5 and make the spread even, Romney is still losing in WI, according to the MU poll.

And, btw, that spread is what MU used to nail the recall poll. It would be a bad poll for Mitt even with a more favorable partisan split.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

WI recall was R+1. You are incorrect, Sir.

gaius on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Independent in Jersey, lol. He has zero chance. NJ isn’t Alaska. It’s a deep blue state.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

he will be seen as gov that swallowed his partisan rethoric when NJ needed it. I skimmed some dem blogs, and commenters suddenly in love with the fatso.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I liked Christie before this. Now he can just stay in NJ. He can’t be trusted.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

The folks are already screaming to Cory Booker about their spoiled food and toilets not flushing. And there are dozens of tweets of thugs showing off the goodies they stole over at Infowars.

By Friday night, things are going to get ugly and this is really going to blow up in Christie and Obama’s face.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Folks, all votes count. Every last one of them.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Not here in California….at least not for the president.

But I will be there voting straight Republican where I can and also trying my best to keep Jerry’s hands out of my wallet by voting on the state propositions.

Ditkaca on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

This is why RINOs need to be purged, and why it’s better to have a Dem than a RINO.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I guess that’s why conservatives are going gangbusters in the battle to take over the Senate, right? You know, because the repeal of Obamacare hinges directly upon Senate control? It’s a good thing we haven’t been throwing away races in places like Missouri and Indiana, because that would just suck.

Stupe.

KingGold on October 31, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Independent in Jersey, lol. He has zero chance. NJ isn’t Alaska. It’s a deep blue state.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

It will be interesting to see how he fares next time out. Scott Brown is in deep stuff in Mass. I think part of it is because he angered some of the people who rallied to him in his last run.

Scott, when you scorn the folks who helped you get elected, they turn against you or don’t turn out at all. Warren is arguably worse, and absolutely as bad as Coakley, and you may lose. Why? Because hard core lefties don’t care what you say or do if you have an “R” after your name. They will take advantage of the legislative votes you cast in their favor…and then promptly turn against you for anyone with a “D” after their name.

Now, what will Christie do when he runs? Will he stay “tough guy” on the same folks (public unions, etc.) and try to hold on to those who voted for him last time? Or will he go the way of Brown?

predator on October 31, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Remember that Pew and Rasmussen were the best (closest) pollsters from last presidential election. I take these two polls to heart, the rest is just garbage to me.

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

Rndguy on October 31, 2012 at 7:12 PM

“I am looking at this realistically. I just don’t know how Obama wins if he loses Independents by upper-single or double-digits and Republicans eat into Democratic turnout in the numbers that data on enthusiasm predict that they will.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:06 PM”

If the pattern you cited holds, then Romney wins. But I just have a hard time believing that the GOP could do any better than a R+1 scenario and that would be incredible in itself.

But it also looks like the Independent vote is narrowing quite a bit in the newer polls. Romney might only be +3 with Indy’s by election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 7:13 PM

landslide
http://youtu.be/WM7-PYtXtJM

mittens on October 31, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I’m not a big fan of early voting but dang I want to vote NOW!

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I’d rather vote in person on Election Day.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I liked Christie before this. Now he can just stay in NJ. He can’t be trusted.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:03 PM

This is why RINOs need to be purged, and why it’s better to have a Dem than a RINO. The MSM will point to the RINO giving cover to the Dems as “bipartisanship” Just like the Maine twins on Obamacare when one of them voted it out of committee. If she hadn’t done that Obamacare would not be “law of the land” right now.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I think I’d rather have a RINO than a Dem in congress but as Gov of NJ? Couldn’t care less, kick has FATass to the curb imo. There aren’t any excuses either, NY needs Fed money too but you don’t see Bloomberg giving O fellatio on national television…shameful.

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 7:14 PM

he was the only Republican running with an organization sophisticated enough to match O’s.

0′s campaign sophisticated?
LOL

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Pew on early voters: Romney leads Obama, running far ahead of McCain ’08
…yeah, but all those DEAD PEOPLE who come out to vote for the d-cRAT socialists take longer to get to the polls – understandably.

TeaPartyNation on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Nope, apparently the hurricane helped with their effort, some :)…gumby will tell in no time how providential this storm has been for Obama :)…no kidding, :)…

jimver on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

The folks are already screaming to Cory Booker about their spoiled food and toilets not flushing. And there are dozens of tweets of thugs showing off the goodies they stole over at Infowars.

By Friday night, things are going to get ugly and this is really going to blow up in Christie and Obama’s face.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

NOBODY likes the gubbermint when they are sitting in the dark eating gubbermint cheese…
and just wait a few days…things are going to get ugly for Barky and the Fatman…

Strike Hornet on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

The folks are already screaming to Cory Booker about their spoiled food and toilets not flushing. And there are dozens of tweets of thugs showing off the goodies they stole over at Infowars.

By Friday night, things are going to get ugly and this is really going to blow up in Christie and Obama’s face.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Mitt is too nice to do this but man I would show up with porta potties on flatbeds and coolers full of food to these neighborhoods.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Good grief, some of you act like Christie should be snubbing the president or giving him a big fat raspberry. What the hell good would that do for people with no food or electricity or no way to get to work? I say kudos to him for putting his animosity aside and working with the president to solve the problems at hand. That’s what he was elected to do for crying out loud.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

“The folks are already screaming to Cory Booker about their spoiled food and toilets not flushing. And there are dozens of tweets of thugs showing off the goodies they stole over at Infowars.

By Friday night, things are going to get ugly and this is really going to blow up in Christie and Obama’s face.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM”

MSM won’t cover any of the problems and certainly wouldn’t blame Obama.

Obama’s approval will be 51-52% by election day due to his handling of the hurricane. And an incumbent does not lose with those numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING…

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

All votes matter, but mine matters more. :)

I’ll be voting in FL this weekend. I’d turn it in earlier, but I’m in grad. school so I’ve got homework to work on. Maybe I’ll run it by on Friday late afternoon.

I registered in a new state this go-around, but my resident state of WI would also be a battleground state. I hear that Tommy could lose though which would be really shocking for Wisconsin.

Midwestprincesse on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Ditkaca on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

They are important period regardless of the outcome in the socialist republik of Kalifornia. Not only do we need Romney to win the electoral college we need him to win the popular vote. We don’t need another protracted whine similar to the 2000 election.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 7:08 PM

If this 2011, I would have been disappointed. But 6 days out from the election… this is sabotage. Obama could care less about the storm, this is a campaign STOP for Obama, and he is using Christie to appear “bipartisan”

Don’t be so naive.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 7:09 PM

I can only fit so many ballots in my trunk per trip. Heading out again with another load before the Trick or Treaters start arriving.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I’d rather vote in person on Election Day.

Christien on October 31, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I just want to vote against Obama/for Mitt so bad. I’ll wait though.

gophergirl on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

But I just have a hard time believing…

Now you know how we feel believing anything you post…LOL

Strike Hornet on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING via Drudge

WTF???????

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING…

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I saw that, too. Probably more Vera Baker rehash or some such garbage.

It sure as hell is not Romney, who’s so clean that he’s “too boring” for the TrueCons.

KingGold on October 31, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Independent in Jersey, lol. He has zero chance. NJ isn’t Alaska. It’s a deep blue state.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:04 PM

he will be seen as gov that swallowed his partisan rethoric when NJ needed it. I skimmed some dem blogs, and commenters suddenly in love with the fatso.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

So? They loved McCain too until he ran against a Democrat and then they hated him too. It’s politics 101…

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I think I’d rather have a RINO than a Dem in congress but as Gov of NJ? Couldn’t care less, kick has FATass to the curb imo. There aren’t any excuses either, NY needs Fed money too but you don’t see Bloomberg giving O fellatio on national television…shameful.

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Let’s not forget that it was a RINO that was the reason Obamacare made it out of committee and ultimately is now law.

So I have no use for them.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:18 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING…

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

If you’re talking about a sex scandal on the Dem side, it won’t change a thing. It’s a positive for them. (See Billy Jeff)

*or are you casting lures?*

predator on October 31, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Obama’s approval will be 51-52% by election day due to his handling of the hurricane. And an incumbent does not lose with those numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Better tell this guy:

Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes.

Hancock told the crowd that the state could be lost if Dems didn’t get out the early vote. Early voting started in Wisconsin on Oct. 22.

“We have not turned out the vote early,” Hancock told the newspaper. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote. We’ve got to get our people to go vote.”

But I’m sure Democrats in great shape freak out for no reason.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 7:19 PM

I was never a fan of Christie for Presidency either way. We need candidates like Walker, not Christie.

It’s one thing to act like a Governor during a crisis. It’s another to kiss one’s butt with a big smoocharoo.

Midwestprincesse on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

O/T News on the MO Senate Race:

Washington, DC – The Now or Never Political Action Committee (NON-PAC) announced today that it will be running $800,000 in television advertisements in the final days of the 2012 Election to support Todd Akin in the Missouri U.S. Senate race.

“Todd Akin may have not been our first choice for Republican nominee in the race to replace Claire McCaskill,” said Harber referencing NONpac’s support of Sarah Steelman in the Republican primary earlier this year. “But, Congressman Akin plays an important role in securing the Senate chamber.”

Sounds good to me.

Link: http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/10/now-or-never-pac-enters-missouri-senate-race-to-bolster-akin.html

bluefox on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN… DEVELOPING…

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Maybe Gloria’s found somebody to drag up for a press conference.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

A dog in every pot!

tom daschle concerned on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

he will be seen as gov that swallowed his partisan rethoric when NJ needed it. I skimmed some dem blogs, and commenters suddenly in love with the fatso.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 7:10 PM

They “love” him now. Like they do all RINOs when they stab conservatives in the back, but you really think they will pick him over an actual Democrap??

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

predator on October 31, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Not casting anything. Breaking on Drudge. That’s all it says.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 6