Pew on early voters: Romney leads Obama, running far ahead of McCain ’08

posted at 6:41 pm on October 31, 2012 by Allahpundit

One of the core reasons to support Romney in the primary, for those who did, was that he was the only Republican running with an organization sophisticated enough to match O’s. Here’s the payoff from Pew:

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

Two different approaches here, obviously dictated in part by differences in their respective bases. O’s team is using social media more heavily because they’re trying to turn out younger voters; Team Mitt is focusing on older adults and seniors, so they’re emphasizing direct mail. Not sure what explains the gap in home visits, though, unless it’s a simple question of greater manpower on O’s side:

The obligatory caveat here, in keeping with all the agonizing from analysts lately about the disparity between national polls and state polls, is that not all early votes are equal. If hundreds of thousands of Texans vote early, that’s super, but Romney’s winning that state going away regardless. We’re more interested in early votes in the battleground states. O has the advantage there right now, but Romney’s outperforming McCain again — most notably in Colorado:

* The one state where Republicans have a clear lead is Colorado, where 38 percent of early votes have come from Republicans and 36 percent have come from Democrats. That said, Democrats had just a two-point early vote advantage in 2008 and still won the state by nine points overall…

* In Virginia, early voting isn’t as big a piece of the puzzle, given that it requires a valid excuse to cast an early ballot. But analysts have pointed out that turnout in heavily Democratic areas like Arlington County, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Richmond, Norfolk and Portsmouth is lower than elsewhere in the state. All were among Obama’s top 10 best cities and counties.

Remember, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado are, realistically, all necessary predicates to Romney having two paths to the presidency. If he hits that trifecta, he’s at 257 votes and can get to 270 by winning either Ohio or Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa. So the caveat to the caveat is that not all battleground states are equal either. We don’t care overly much about Nevada or Iowa if early voting in those other four looks good. Although, since we’re on the subject, WaPo says O’s early-voting lead in both NV and IA is shrinking as we speak and bound to finish lower than it was four years ago. Which I guess is why Team Mitt is starting to look more closely at Iowa as a potential upset.

Then there’s the caveat to the caveat to the caveat: How many of these early voters are people who wouldn’t have voted on election day? They’re the important ones, since they’re actually adding to the candidate’s total rather than merely banking votes for him that he would have received next week anyway. It’s hard to gauge, but Henry Olsen at AEI gave it a shot — and says he thinks it bodes well for Romney in Ohio:

I hypothesized that if the Romney campaign’s effort is working, the share of the total 2008 early vote that has already been cast should be higher in strong Romney counties than in strong Obama counties. That’s because if the Romney effort works, total turnout in those counties should be up in 2012, the bulk of that coming from the low-voting-propensity supporters who the campaign is asking to cast early ballots.

Through last Friday, that hypothesis is clearly correct…

Follow the link above for the data. More from Byron York:

“The Gallup numbers nationally confirm what we think is happening here in Ohio,” says one Romney official. “It’s two things. One, their margin of victory in early voting is greatly diminished — drastically diminished. And two, they are having a very difficult time generating enthusiasm among young people.”

Asked for evidence to support those claims, the official cited a Romney tally showing absentee and early voting is ten percent higher in counties McCain won in 2008 than in counties Obama won. He also pointed to sluggish early voting in the Toledo area, which Obama won in ’08, and particularly energetic early voting in the Cincinnati area, which McCain won. In addition, the official argues that Republicans are “outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes” and that the GOP has “closed the gap on Democrats’ historical absentee and early vote advantage for 20 of the past 21 days.”

Read Jay Cost’s post too about the oddity of Ohio polling generally. If pollsters were all making similar assumptions about the electorate there, you’d expect to see them converging around a number at this point. Instead, you see two separate convergences, with one group pegging the race as even or led narrowly by one of the candidates and a separate group pegging it as a four-point or so Obama lead. Awfully hard to believe that the latter group is correct when Romney is now out to his biggest national lead yet in the “likeability gap,” but that’s the polling weirdness we’re staring at right now. Simultaneously, we’re supposed to believe that Barack Obama’s going to win narrowly in virtually every major swing state except Florida, and yet Romney’s going to take the popular vote by a point or more. Ain’t happening. Someone’s wrong.

Oh, one last note about that gruesome Marquette poll of Wisconsin that you may have stumbled across earlier. Charlie Sykes argues that the sample is dubious, essentially expecting Democratic turnout at 2008 levels. That also ain’t happening, and if it was, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and Joe Biden and Paul Ryan and Bill Clinton would all find something better to do with their time.

And with that, my friends, I’ve now reached this point.


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Comment pages: 1 4 5 6

Why doesn’t AP ban gumby already? Gosh, it’s like these trolls just enjoy mocking conservatives and rubbing it in.

Chris Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Someone Writes “Romney” In Sand On New Jersey Beach During Obama’s Flyover…

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/11/01/heh-someone-writes-romney-in-sand-on-new-jersey-beach-during-obamas-fl

workingclass artist on November 1, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Obama is not campaigning in MI, MO or PA. Sending surrogates is a very different thing. It’s interesting to go on twitter and see Josh Jordan and DM Hawkins now saying “don’t believe the polls” when at first they said “dont believe some polls,” lol. This is becoming a rerun of 08. The national polls and state polls are all converging to predict an Obama win. And the jobs numbers out today and good for Obama and will be good tomorrow, too.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that you believe Obama is winning. What kind of sick person gets his kicks out of coming to their adversaries place of congregation to kick sand in their faces?

If you truly believe what you post here – that just makes you an enormous *sshole. typical of a leftist.

So either way, whether, as I suspect, you are paid to come to conservative site in an effort to tramp down on enthusiasm, or you truly believe your spin – either way you are not a good person.

If you truly believed what you claim here and were a decent person, you’d simply go away and let the inevitable take its course and Obama win. The only point of you posting on the poll threads is to either be an *ss or to tramp enthusiasm.

So, again, your commenting here belies your claims. Unless you want to admit your just an *sshole that likes to kick sand in political opponents faces because it feels good? In which case, I think you are delusional believing that Obama will win when he is down double digits with independents, roughly even in the gender gap, and behind about 10 points in voter enthusiasm. The polls themselves can be jimmied to show a certain “result”, but anyone with enough intelligence can look to the internals and see that unless O gets a +6 or better D turnout, he can’t win. Anything less than that and the independent vote alone will defeat him.

Is it possible for Obama to win? Sure. Is it likely at this point? No.

Monkeytoe on November 1, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Why doesn’t AP ban gumby already? Gosh, it’s like these trolls just enjoy mocking conservatives and rubbing it in.

Chris Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Too funny. Worst Moby ever. And probably an alter-ego of gumby.

Monkeytoe on November 1, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Because liberals are a**es as a matter of fact.

Reminder Chris Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Democrats are getting desperate…

“Attached is a Nevada Election Task Force complaint filed late today in Nevada by Babette Rutherford, a Nevada voter.

The complaint alleges scores of union tactics designed to undermine the integrity of the voting process and intimidate voters…”
http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/10/28/breaking-significant-election-complaint-filed-in-nevada/

And in Oregon…
“A mailer sent to Oregon voters by the AFL-CIO warns that their voting history is a matter of public record, Breitbart.com reported Wednesday.

“Your voting history is a matter of public record,” the mailer declares, implying that the union can determine how people vote…”
http://www.examiner.com/article/afl-cio-mailer-warns-oregon-voters-we-know-your-voting-history

workingclass artist on November 1, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Because liberals are a**es as a matter of fact.

Reminder Chris Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Republican voters have long memories

workingclass artist on November 1, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Because liberals are a**es as a matter of fact.

Reminder Chris Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Moby.

Reminder, Obama is an ignorant, arrogant, incompetent, dishonest, hyper-liberal, idiot. Likely the worst president of the past 100 years (yes, even worse than Carter as he has done more damage).

Monkeytoe on November 1, 2012 at 9:52 AM

What exactly is a moby?? I’m just a really depressed conservative. And yes R voters have long memories, which is why we must not let Christie get away with his crap when he shows up in NH asking for votes. Heck let’s primary the guy so that he can join Crist as a blowhard ambulance chaser.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 9:57 AM

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama (Cook Political Report)
Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman
Posted on November 1, 2012, 9:55:46 AM EDT by TonyInOhio

I’ve been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off ’08 pace

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama ’08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain ’08 (statewide down 9.2%)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in ’08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in ’08)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O…in Kerry ’04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. ’08 (only -1.7% in Bush)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Umm… Probably not going to happen again. Things just aren’t looking good for us at the moment. Thanks Sandy!! And a special thanks to “Republican” Chris Christie for the stupid stunt he pulled.

This is your daily reminder.. Chris Christie wants Romney to lose

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 7:25 AM

Yeah….things don’t look good………

Pew: Romney Has Turnout Edge

Pew: Obama’s Early Vote Average Collapses 26 Points over 2008

WaPo/ABC Poll: Romney Wins Independents, Hurricane ‘Unlikely’ To ‘Move the Needle’

Hawkeye Poll: Romney by One in Iowa

Poll: Romney Up 16% With Pennsylvania Independents

Democrat Mayor: Obama Losing Early Voting in Wisconsin

Republican Early NC Vote Gains Wipe Out Obama’s 2008 Lead

Virginia Poll: Romney by Five, Leads on Immigration

D+8 VA Poll: Romney +21 Among Independents, Obama Up Two Overall

Republicans Lead Democrats With Early Voters In Colorado

Dem Early Vote Lead In Florida Down 70% Over 2008

CBS: Romney Posts Big Leads Among Independents

I’ll take more bad news like this any day.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Awesome idea.. “primary” Christie!

I encourage that. Even better – I hope that Tea Party person beats Christie.

inklake on November 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I’ll take more bad news like this any day.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Ditto here. And did you catch Nate Silver’s bet? The man just lost $1,000 and he doesn’t know it yet.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I live in Macomb Co. Michigan…….home of Reagan Democrats. Last night out with the 4 y.o. trick or treating…..the Romney yard signs outnumbered the Obama ones about 10-1. (And of course, non of the O houses were passing anything out)

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

So I guess that is something leftie trolls and conservatives agree on. I could care less about losing NJ. I just want to make sure Christie never gets anywhere near the WH except on a public tour.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Who is voting for Mitt Romney? AKA let’s save America.

Catholics – who have been challenged by Obama in their faith and beliefs.
Blacks – who are against same-sex marriages as being immoral and who have suffered most from Obama’s failures.
Whites – who see that Blacks are voting for Obama because he’s Black; Whites will vote for Whites.
Republicans – none of which voted for Obamacare.
Tea Party followers – who like in 2010 are throwing out Liberals and RHINOS again.
Coal Miners – who are taking Obama’s threats to end coal mining in America seriously.
Vehicle drivers – those who are faced with TWICE the cost of gas since Obama took office.
Jobless workers – those who have been waiting for Obama to create jobs, but hasn’t; many have left the job market.
Stock and Bond holders – many of whom were shafted when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
Small Business owners – who have repeatedly been ignored by Obama.
Citizens against Obamacare – because of the upcoming increase in taxes and excessive regulation if Obamacare is not repealed.
Jewish folks – because Obama has not visited Israel even once since taking office; and Obama’s bad attitude toward Israel.
Hispanics – those who know that Obama’s failure to create sufficient jobs is hurting the U.S. economy in a bad way.
Business people – millions who are hesitant to grow because of the vast uncertainty due to Obama and Obamacare.
Workers – facing layoffs, underemployment and a worsening economy; lower wages.
Shoppers – those who see prices rising and product size shrinking; inventories reduced.
Concerned Citizens – who see the Benghazi incident as an Obama failure and even treasonous (un-American).
Concerned Citizens – who see Obama’s foreign policies as dangerous and failures.
Persons of Faith – who recognize Obama’s forcing provision by them of contraception to employees as Constitutional violations.
Gun owners – who have always been against the extreme liberal ideas Obama has for gun control.
Local government officials – who see Obama’s federal encroachment as unacceptable.
Truckers – who see the high price of gas as an attack on their livelihood.
Oil business – that reject Obama’s curbs on off-shore drilling.
Oil industry workers – that recognize the Keystone pipeline as Obama’s failure to encourage jobs and job growth.
Americans – who view Obama’s encouragement of high oil prices and lowered U.S. oil production as favoring OPEC and Arabs.
Concerned Congressmen – those that recognize that Obama has no cogent foreign policy, which could prove to be dangerous.
Individuals
Homeowners – who have seen their life saving and equity go down the drain because Obama has done nothing on the economy.
Health care providers – doctors and others who see Obamacare as a threat to their income; and harmful extreme regulations.
Concerned citizens – that are very concerned about the U.S. deficit and Obama’s extreme radical uncontrolled spending.
Others – concerned about Obama’s illegal activities, Fast and Furious, Benghazi, not defending DOMA, condoning illegal aliens.
Abortion foes – object to Obama’s callous lack of concern for the unborn and Obama’s radical third trimester abortion views.
Concerned Americans – who have been outright lied to by Obama when he claimed his administration would be transparent.
Car manufacturers – those that have seen car sales drop with Obama’s bad economy and economic policies hurting sales.
Housing developers – who like many others have seen the Obama economy cripple home construction and lower profits.
Mormons – who support Mitt Romney as a person of faith, good character, and honest principles.
Economists – that have expressed encouragement that Romney’s experience and knowledge will lead to true hope and results.
Military – seeing that Obama’s cuts will endanger their ability to protect our country.
Independents – who already have provided a surge for Romney, are convinced that the past 4 years of Obama is enough.
Evangelicals – who organized the largest get-out-the-vote for conservatism ever, in their concerted effort to defeat Obama.
Conservatives – a majority in U.S., are pushing hard to take the Senate, Presidency and House for the good of America.
Skeptics – who 4 years ago were duped into believing in Obama’s Hope and Change that eventually came to nothing, just lies.

and millions, millions more against Obama and his lies and failures.

Vote Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. Let’s make America strong and great again because we can!

AdrianS on November 1, 2012 at 1:59 PM

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