Messina: Our map is set, unlike that flailing Team Romney

posted at 5:21 pm on October 31, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

The wave of post-debate momentum that has erased and even reversed the leads that President Obama once had in both national and swing-state battles is still going strong, and with a hefty bit more cash on hand than the Democratic camp and only six days left until the election, they’ve got plenty of spending left to burn through. Via the WashTimes:

A late surge of support and months of restrained spending have left the Republican National Committee flush with cash with little time to spend it — $68 million as of Oct. 17, which was nearly seven times the amount the Democratic National Committee had in the bank.

Adding in the cash from other presidential campaign committees, the mismatch still was stark: $156 million for Mitt Romney and his GOP allies to $94 million for President Obama and his allies. State Republican parties also had 50 percent more cash than their Democratic counterparts, according to an analysis by The Washington Times.

The last few days, however, have seen significant shifts in even a few states in which President Obama held hitherto commanding leads — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, of this morning‘s “Axelrod will shave his ‘stache if Obama loses them”-fame, spring to mind — and the Romney campaign has seen fit to start diverting some of their resources into those states. Obama campaign manager Jim Messina labels this as last-minute “flailing,” per Politico:

Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said Wednesday that he doesn’t anticipate Chicago opening any new fronts in the final six days of the campaign — essentially ceding states like Arizona where advertising might move the needle. …

“In these final days, our map is set — unlike the Romney campaign which is flailing, trying to make the map different than it is,” he said, in response to a question about the possibility of trying to contest Arizona. …

The Romney campaign and their allies have gone up with last minute buys in states like Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin — all states expected to end up in Obama’s column. The Romney campaign says they’re simply expanding the map, but the Obama campaign says they’ve realized their pathway to victory is now implausible.

Even if the shifting-towards-Romney numbers in all of these states don’t even mean that all of these states are necessarily in real play, how is putting Team Obama on the defensive and forcing them to divert their own resources, while simultaneously even just supporting the nationwide impression of wildly strong momentum, doing anything other than capitalizing on recent gains? What Messina calls flailing, I’d call calculating.


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Breaking: From Bret Baier’s Special Report…Cable sent to Hilary’s office from August saying there was an ‘emergency meeting’ about concern about Al Qaeda training camps nearby and possibility of attack and how poorly they were prepared for one in Benghazi.

kit9 on October 31, 2012 at 6:09 PM

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I always wanted to be a writer, but I’ll settle foe Editor in Chief.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:09 PM

OT- Fox News breaking info about a cable a month before the attack at Benghazi questioning the ability of defending against a coordinated attack. Requests for additional security denied.

Not exactly a full October surprise but more evidence when the killing in Benghazi is prosecuted.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 6:06 PM

If a Republican were president this information would be billed as a huge October surprise.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Edit…for…not foe
Damn, there goes my editing job!

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Thx, OTTO. :-)

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

I don’t know Del. Stephanoupolis, Matthews, Carvel, Dede Meyers and so many of the others have shown they can be objective after serving under democrat presidents.

DanMan on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

If a Republican were president this information would be billed as a huge October surprise.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Hey! No fair! That’s totally unprovable!

-Urban Elitist

stvnscott on October 31, 2012 at 6:11 PM

The polls seem to be tightening everywhere. The hurricane seems to have halted the Romney momentum. If it’s close the Dems will cheat their way to victory. No time to get overconfident. Rally everyone you know to GOTV.

Rockshine on October 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

If that’s true — that Romney’s momentum has been turned back and polls are tightening because President Pantywaist had a picture of himself squatting in the Situation Room looking concerned and had Chris Christie give him figurative fellatio on national news — than this country is hooped.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:12 PM

jawkneemusic on October 31, 2012 at 5:46 PM

There is no joy in gumbyville. The ABC/WaPo poll readjusted for likely party turnout puts Romney ahead of Obama 52.7 to 45.7, which is where every single national poll has been for 4 weeks now, give or take a point or two, that I readjust. But what is most interesting about the latest ABC/WaPo tracking poll is the Democratic vote. By their own poll they have 9% of Dems voting for Romney. I find that intriguing.

And gummedbrain is going to Hell, so pray for him. With his callous disregard for those who serve our country, and his gleeful rejoicing of the death and destruction Hurricane Sandy has caused, his soul is in serious peril.

NotCoach on October 31, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I said it was a Godsend for Obama and it looks like I was right.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 5:39 PM

God ought to send you a message just for saying that. Shame.

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 6:12 PM

What Messina calls flailing, I’d call calculating.

Bingo!!..Nice job Erika..:)

Dire Straits on October 31, 2012 at 6:13 PM

If a Republican were president this information would be billed as a huge October surprise.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

If a Republican were President, this information wouldn’t be needed. He’d already be packing his bags.

BobMbx on October 31, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Im more inclined to believe Romney knows what he’s doing versus the Obama camps version of it. I’d see panic if they were taking all this money and putting into states where they’re ahead.

The one reason I find it hard to believe Obama can win is, what has he done to earn re-election? We know he’s incapable of being bi-partisan. In fact he’s already said that he believes, if he wins this election, Republicans will have to move his way, he’s said nothing about moving their way.

You can tell, just by the demeanor of Obama and Biden during the debates, just how they feel about Republicans, Conservatives, or anyone else in the country that doesn’t agree with them. They’re definitely not planning on being the government of ALL the people.

bflat879 on October 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz
Fox dead even at 46-46. Romney up 7 with indies. 8% undecided?

46% is horrible for an incumbent. I don’t see how so many people can be undecided a this late.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Obama has been aiming for a 50 state strategy all along (minus states full of hicks and creepers such as TX and KY) and has been consistent in that.

He will win with a mandate – I’m guessing around 300 EV’s. The economy will accelerate like Felix Baumgartner making a space jump, and the stage will be set for Michell/Biden in 2016 (possibly the other way around check the other thread).

I’m hoping it’s Michelle so that she can fix the fast food epidemic and promote more organic gardening – which I strongly support.

akaniku on October 31, 2012 at 5:31 PM

..I cannot let the delusional ravings of a liberal, menopausal old bag lady go by without a response. So glad you are in a blue state nirvana sans the hicks and creepers most of us refer to as Americans. But please remember that, while Baumgartner was accelerating, he was plummeting towards earth — which is exactly what this economy will do given another four years of the Sack-o-Crap™ POTUS and his clown troupe at the controls.

And apparently you have not heard of the all-out rebellion to the dietetic hypocrisy of the cheeseburger-sucking, $5,000-sneaker wearing, stevedore-armed WIDE LOAD FLOTUS moocher is proposing.

Suggest you just take your shopping cart and entourage of feline admirers and wander down to the next street corner to rummage through a new set of trash cans for recyclables.

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

When all the WaPo/ABC can land with is a tie — after twisting themselves in pretzels trying to find only Obama “independents” — Zero is waaaay behind.

And then there is this: The beltway is preparing for a Romney win.

Ignore what they say; watch what they do.

Rational Thought on October 31, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Not exactly a full October surprise but more evidence when the killing in Benghazi is prosecuted.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I wish you’re right, but I’m not holding out hope for full prosecution of this.
Scapegoats and dead people found in ditches is all I expect.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Messina? Isn’t he that creepy hand writer guy?

TURNOUT!!!!!!

How about we make November 7th Chik Fil A day if Romney wins and eat at a homeless shelter Day if Obama wins?

Got chikin?

PappyD61 on October 31, 2012 at 6:16 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Fox News national poll tied up at 46%. Romney up 7 with independents. Sample is D+5 (was D+7 in 08, even in 2004/2010).

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Messina is creepier than Obama.

Messina to me looks like a cross between Alfred E.Neuman and Howdy Doody.

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:17 PM

The Democrats/Media are hoping that Benghazi won’t be an issue until after Tuesday. Even if something major happens they know there would be four years of Biden as president.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:18 PM

‏@kesgardner
Fox News poll: 46-46 tie nationally, poll is D+5 (Dem 42, GOP 37, I 18), Mitt leads by 7 with indies. Oversampling Ds, undersampling Is.

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I doubt many Americans are too impressed seeing their President do his actual job for once.

nextgen_repub on October 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Especially those hundreds of thousands of potential voters who are still without power! How can one be impressed with something they never see?

There is absolutely no historical polling evidence showing that any incumbent President ever received a job approval bump after a major hurricane. Chimpy Bush was perceived by the Democrats and their Media to have epically screwed the pooch on Katrina, but if you look at his job approval numbers after the storm, they were really not that much different than those before the storm.

And Sandy is way down on the list of “deadliest” hurricanes in American history.

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 6:19 PM

“The ABC/WaPo poll readjusted for likely party turnout puts Romney ahead of Obama 52.7 to 45.7, which is where every single national poll has been for 4 weeks now, give or take a point or two, that I readjust.”

What is likely party turnout?

And there are no other national polls other than Gallup that are even in that ballpark.

Fox has it tied.

ABC/Wash POst has it tied

CBS has Obama +1

Rasmussen has Romney +2

National Journal has Obama +5

Pew has it tied.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

BTW Romney was up by 1 in the last Fox poll, but the sampling was D+1. Romney is tied in this one with a D+5 sample.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Ok, what’s with all this “the storm has helped Zero” crap?

If we are all going to crawl over broken glass to vote how is downed power lines, trees and soggy streets going to stop us?
Now the other side I can see being deterred by obstacles that the government hasn’t removed for them.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:23 PM

I think this hurricane may have been a very bad thing for Obama. These are pretty blue states. We know democrat party members enthusiasm is far less than 2008. We also know that the republicans enthusiasm is in the crawl over glass to send Obama and his merry band of traitorous thieves out of power. These states may just lose a whole lot more democrat voters. Those that are 0-1 election voters are so not voting. Those that are 2-3 election voters 50% out.

This is good for both Romney and republican senate candidates in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, maybe Maine.

jukin3 on October 31, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I think everyone going to WI probably means that both camps think it’s possible O is winning Ohio, which would make WI very very important to the Romney camp. It’s just anecdotal. However, it’s becoming unrealistic to keep assuming that every single poll out of OH has to be wrong. In 2008, we played this wishcasting, the polls are screwed game and lost, but we’re a lot closer than we were in 2008.

I hope we win this but I am again getting eeyorish. I wonder if Ohioans are still among America’s least educated for 2012.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Seriously even Fox has the Ds at 42%? What in the world is going on? No way that happens.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 6:25 PM

his soul is in serious peril.

NotCoach on October 31, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Gumbo sold it a long time ago for 50 cents per post.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

How news reporters and talking heads are so math ignorant is amazing. I thought there are analysts to help them decipher result. Q polls’s top lines were just read off as they were by MSNBC, John Gibson and Bob Beckel.

So FoxNews reported that its poll shows a tie, an and the the 1 point edge Romney had after the first debated “evaporated”. The one before (10/7 that had Romney up by 1. MOE is 3, so 1 point move in a poll is meaningless, especially the difference in party ID breakdown itself can account for the result

10/30 D 42 R 37 I 18 D+5
10/7 D 40 R 39 I 18 D+1

Is FoxNews stupid or just trying to sell a mirage to keep its audience watching a supposed horse race.

bayview on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

National Journal has Obama +5

Pew has it tied.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

LOL, you do realize those are from the same polling firm over the same period with just different Pro-Dem LV screens? (One D+8, the other D+5)

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/the-death-of-polling-industry-credibility/

Norwegian on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Ok, what’s with all this “the storm has helped Zero” crap?

If we are all going to crawl over broken glass to vote how is downed power lines, trees and soggy streets going to stop us?
Now the other side I can see being deterred by obstacles that the government hasn’t removed for them.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Fact is if you’re still undecided you’re likely not even watching the Sandy news at this point and if BO’s slanderous commercials against Romney didn’t turn you against him…a ceremonial walk through of damage in NJ with a fatass bully tough guy wannabe isn’t going to do it!

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

46% is horrible for an incumbent. I don’t see how so many people can be undecided a this late.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Good point!..:)

Dire Straits on October 31, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Fact is if you’re still undecided you’re likely not even watching the Sandy news at this point and if BO’s slanderous commercials against Romney didn’t turn you against him…a ceremonial walk through of damage in NJ with a fatass bully tough guy wannabe isn’t going to do it!

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Heh.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

And let’s not forget this quote, never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate as a whole, this quote sums it up:

The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

“I think this hurricane may have been a very bad thing for Obama.”

You couldn’t be more wrong. This nonsense is why I have to be here.

Obama could not buy more favorable press than he’s gotten the last two days. And to have a Republican governor kissing your a** nonstop and looking like a lovestruck child is beyond what he could have hoped for in the last week of a close race. The positive optics and coverage equals what Romney received after the first debate. It is a literal game-changer.

Poor hapless Mitt never stood a chance when Mother Nature intervened on Obama’s behalf.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

And there are no other national polls other than Gallup that are even in that ballpark.

Gumby national polls missed it in 2008, but you know what they nailed? McCain’s final number (the de facto incumbent). Guess who the incumbent is now?

You think 46%-48% in every poll for O might mean something – and that with 2008 turnout assumptions.

You can tout these weaponized polls all you like, Gumby, but just remember that steady drumbeat of 47,46,47,48,47….

newtopia on October 31, 2012 at 6:29 PM

CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Survey Narnia, Find Obama Leading

We’re six days out from the finish line so there’s not much time left for the press to get in their final push for their preferred candidate. Lucky for the Left there is the wonderfully incompetent trio of CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac to rush into the fray and magically find polls with Obama winning just close enough that when it flips on election day they can shout “Margin of Error!” and head back into their cocoon.

The economy remains the paramount issue in this election with ~50% saying it is the top priority and ~20% saying it is the #2 priority across all three states polled. No other topic is even close. Despite this the lead questions in the survey were “which candidate cares about the needs and problems of people like you?”, “who cares about the middle class?” and “who cares and understands the needs and problems of women in the workplace?” I’m not making this up. These are straight out of Obama stump speeches. For the uninitiated, polling is as much art as it is science and question order greatly affects responses of those surveyed. PPP does this in a very biased way all the time which which is among the countless reasons I will never blog them. In the Q-poll, even in their pro-Obama wave of questions, when they get to whether candidate X is a strong leader, Obama still solidly lags Romney polling at ~56% while Romney polls ~64 across the 3 states.

After 9 straight ostensibly pro-O questions, they ask about the economy which again is the TOP issue in everyone’s book and happens to be THE issue in every R stump speech. With 9 questions ramping up good feelings about O, R barely leads on this issue in FL and VA and trails by one in OH. Well done Quinnipiac. Now, if you’ll just survey far more Democrats than have ever shown up at the polls in these state the Death Star may finally be fully operational and O can pull out an election that he is almost assuredly losing right now. On to the states!

Florida: The Lion

O leads +1 at 48 to 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 5.

Party ID was D +7 (Dem 37, Rep 30, Ind 29). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Good show Quinnipiac! In a state with a GOP governor and massive increases in congressional delegations, popular GOP Senator, and strong state house swings to the GOP since 2008, you found Democrat strength equal to 2008 while Republican flight since 2004 continues unabated. You found the Democrat identification advantage in your survey more than doubles the advantage they enjoyed in 2008 despite a nearly net 300,000 swing towards Republicans in voter registrations. Your Florida poll is unassailable…at least in Narnia.

O job approval +1 at 49/48 … if Quinnipiac surveyed only Dade County and even there I’d double check the numbers

Ohio: The Witch

O leads +5, 50 – 45 with 4% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 6.

The party ID was D +8 (Dem 37, Rep 29, Ind 30). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will meet O’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used. This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +8 that much more implausible. How many statistics on changes in enthusiasm favoring Republicans, unrealistic Democrat demographic assumptions and elimination of Obama’s early vote advantage do you need to see before they start polling an electorate dissimilar to 2008 when their dream candidate fulfilled their liberal inner guilt and healed a nation or whatever BS they were peddling at the time? Quinnipiac is not going to let silly facts get in the way of its mission to buck up the Lefties and turn this contest into a horse-race. One more piece to the puzzle before the Death Star is complete.

O job approval +3 at 50/47 — Can you imagine what it would be if they surveyed Ohio?

Virginia: The Wardrobe

O leads by 2, 49 – 47 with 3% Undecided; Romney leads with Independents by 21.

The party ID is D +8 (Dem 35, Rep 27, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Who knew the blue wave continues so far South of the DC Beltway? Certainly not Virginia and certainly not Governor Creigh Deeds. Just because Virginia flipped its state delegation dramatically in favor of Republicans doesn’t mean the voters turned their back on Democrats, it’s just there must have been a good TV rerun of Martin Sheen spouting non-sensical liberal tripe on the Left Wing that distracted Democrats from voting. Good thing Quinnipiac found these ultra-micro-targeted hidden Democrats only Project Narwhal knows about because otherwise, without those gnomes (Step 1: Call random #s only in Fairfax County, Step 2: ???, Step 3: Obama wins!) I’m not sure we’d have a fully operational Death Star. Come November 6, we’ll see how well those gnomes delivered for this survey of a fantasy electorate.

O job approval flat at 49/49 — Really? 49% with a D +8 turnout in a state closer to even D/R? Suuuuuuuure.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Got chikin?

PappyD61 on October 31, 2012 at 6:16 PM

A Romney win will ensure a Chik-Fil-A gift certificate in all of OTTO’s family Christmas stockings. That and some coal mined right here in the USA.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

so what your saying is that 6 days before an election the incumbent is tied and under 50 percent.

you did not say what that means.

late deciders have historically gone for the challenger.

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Poor hapless Mitt never stood a chance when Mother Nature intervened on Obama’s behalf.

Mother nature can’t blow away 7.8% unemployment.

newtopia on October 31, 2012 at 6:31 PM

However, it’s becoming unrealistic to keep assuming that every single poll out of OH has to be wrong. In 2008, we played this wishcasting, the polls are screwed game and lost,

100% correct!

Congratulations, this is the post of the year.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:31 PM

All about trying to maintain the facade of inevitability.

tom on October 31, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Ok, what’s with all this “the storm has helped Zero” crap?

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Gumby’s the one that’s dancing on peoples graves and came up with that crap.

Look for more of this and worse by Friday.

Constituents to Newark Mayor Cory Booker: Do something about our spoiled food!

Their toilets aren’t flushing either.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

jaygatz33 on October 31, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Heh.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

That lovefest is something I’m intentionally trying not to focus on.
That and Biden’s load.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

You’re a prick — “Mother Nature intervened on Obama’s behalf”. Really? Have some self-respect and be a little more conscious of the fact many are without food, shelter or clean water, and others are missing family, while still others are dead. “Mother Nature” didn’t intervene on Obama’s behalf. There is nothing charming in that insinuation, idiot.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

“gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

so what your saying is that 6 days before an election the incumbent is tied and under 50 percent.

you did not say what that means.

late deciders have historically gone for the challenger.

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:30 PM”

Without the hurricane, probably.

But looking at the ABC/Wash Post tracking, Obama is due to be in the lead tomorrow and I would be surprised if Rasmussen didn’t show the same trend. Because of the positive press his handling of the hurricane is generating, the late deciders/undecided will break for Obama, and he will narrow the gap among independents, who just love the bipartisanship thing going on with Christie.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Sort of off topic but I was thinking today what a striking difference in Mr. President’s handling of the Horizon oil spill vs Superstorm Sandy. Remember Carville yelling “It just looks like he’s not involved in this. Man, you got to get down here and take control of this.”? Hmmmm. wonder what the difference could be? /

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Anyone know when the last time a sitting President polled under 50% and won?

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:35 PM

I doubt many Americans are too impressed seeing their President do his actual job for once.

nextgen_repub on October 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Already complaints coming in from folks in NY/NJ saying aid is not coming fast enough, food and water etc. I expect they will be let down too if there aren’t Obama debit cards handed out. Will they run out of Obamaphones too?

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 6:35 PM

What is likely party turnout?

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:21 PM

One predictor of turnout is midterm election turnout. Take a look at the pattern:

In the 1998 midterms, turnout was D+2.

In 2000, turnout was D+4.

In the 2002 midterms, turnout was R+1.

In 2004, turnout was R+2.4.

In the 2006 midterms, turnout was D+3.

In 2008, turnout was D+5.

In the 2010 midterms, turnout was R+3.

Most of the polls that you are relying upon have Democrat turnout higher than it was in 2008. They act as though the last 4 years, including the Tea Party and the 2010 election, haven’t happened.

There has been on constant in polling data for over a year and that is a clear enthusiasm gap in favour of Republicans. Why on earth would you believe that Democrats are going to out-perform 2008, which was both a wave and historic election year?

Why would you think that Romney is going to do worse than John McCain?

In order to buy into most of the polls that you tout, you have to believe that more Democrats will turnout than did in 2008 and fewer Republicans will turnout than did in 2008. Only the delusional believe that either or both will happen.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Their toilets aren’t flushing either.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

November 6th 2012
THE FLUSH HEARD ROUND THE WORLD!

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Without the hurricane, probably.

But looking at the ABC/Wash Post tracking, Obama is due to be in the lead tomorrow and I would be surprised if Rasmussen didn’t show the same trend. Because of the positive press his handling of the hurricane is generating, the late deciders/undecided will break for Obama, and he will narrow the gap among independents, who just love the bipartisanship thing going on with Christie.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:34 PM

He’s going to Las Vegas tomorrow. The bromance is over.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

However, it’s becoming unrealistic to keep assuming that every single poll out of OH has to be wrong. In 2008, we played this wishcasting, the polls are screwed game and lost,

any poll out of ohio more than DEM+4 is wrong

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

However, it’s becoming unrealistic to keep assuming that every single poll out of OH has to be wrong.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Most of the Ohio polls have ridiculous internals relating to party turnout. But it isn’t just Ohio, 90% of all polls this election are out in left field due to their ridiculous assumptions on Democratic turnout. This is going to be an R+ election. The voter registration data confirms this in my view. And we are already seeing it in early voting with Republicans closing the gap over 2008 in a huge way, including in Ohio.

NotCoach on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

akaniku on October 31, 2012 at 5:31 PM

So Mr. Sustainability show us how you walk the walk. How about some pictures of the green house where you grow organic food. How about some pictures of the solar panels and wind generator that run your house. How about some pictures of the bicycle you ride to work on.
Otherwise Mr. Sustainability elitest you are a do as I say not as I do hypocrite.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

100% correct!

Congratulations, this is the post of the year.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:31 PM

You deliberately maligned what I posted. Go gurgle on some razor blades douchebag.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

The complaints against 0 are starting to come in on his handling of the storm. Its not good for him.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

0′s Katrina?

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

He’s going to Las Vegas tomorrow. The bromance is over.

why is he going to Nevada. he’s going to take it

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

We may not like him, but I think gumpypokey is Obama’s honey-badger.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Wow! NY to Romney. Wow!

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 PM

You deliberately maligned what I posted. Go gurgle on some razor blades douchebag.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

They feed off of hand wringing squishes.

Its like heroin to trolls.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 PM

… with Christie literally figuratively giving him wet sloppy kisses at every turn…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 5:32 PM

No matter how many times people try to make it so, literally is never going to mean figuratively. They’re antonyms.

Longing4Lincoln on October 31, 2012 at 5:59 PM

My question is, how does Joe Biden find the time to troll on Hot Air while campaigning?

Hardest working man gaffe machine in politics?

tom on October 31, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Anyone know when the last time a sitting President polled under 50% and won?

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 50 percent at this point won, and every incumbent who was under 50 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is under 50 percent.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:40 PM

46% is horrible for an incumbent. I don’t see how so many people can be undecided a this late.

midgeorgian on October 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

They are not undecided on a candidate, they are undecided whether they will drag their arse off the couch and go vote for Blightbringer. If in the northeast, the hurricane damage is the perfect excuse not to go out. If they are Romney supporters, they will go to the Rent A Center and check out a Jetson’s jetpack to get to the voting booth.

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 6:40 PM

I said it was a Godsend for Obama and it looks like I was right.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 5:39 PM

You’re never right. In fact, there has never been a troll on this site who’s been more wrong more often than you. It’s amazing. You should get an award for being so inept. And we should all get an award for having to deal with you.

joejm65 on October 31, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Most of the Ohio polls have ridiculous internals relating to party turnout. But it isn’t just Ohio, 90% of all polls this election are out in left field due to their ridiculous assumptions on Democratic turnout. This is going to be an R+ election. The voter registration data confirms this in my view. And we are already seeing it in early voting with Republicans closing the gap over 2008 in a huge way, including in Ohio.

NotCoach on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

I agree with this. I can’t understand for the life of me what is going on with National vs State polling. This is the most bizarre polling ever.
I already discount anything from PPP or Quinnipac as they are a joke. But there are other polls like the OH newspaper poll which had it tied a few days ago, now has Obama up 2. And Gravis which had R up 1 now has O up 2. I will wait for Rass. before I jump off the ledge. I sure hope it’s not me that will be smoking the car tail pipe next week.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Huh? Where’s the NY stuff?

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I N D E P E N D E N T S

U N D E C I D E D S

Romney wins in a landslide

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 6:42 PM

akaniku on October 31, 2012 at 5:31 PM

So Mr. Sustainability show us how you walk the walk. How about some pictures of the green house where you grow organic food. How about some pictures of the solar panels and wind generator that run your house. How about some pictures of the bicycle you ride to work on.
Otherwise Mr. Sustainability elitest you are a do as I say not as I do hypocrite.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

No No No! I don’t not want to see pictures of the nudist commune.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:44 PM

You couldn’t be more wrong. This nonsense is why I have to be here.

Obama could not buy more favorable press than he’s gotten the last two days. And to have a Republican governor kissing your a** nonstop and looking like a lovestruck child is beyond what he could have hoped for in the last week of a close race. The positive optics and coverage equals what Romney received after the first debate. It is a literal game-changer.

Poor hapless Mitt never stood a chance when Mother Nature intervened on Obama’s behalf.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I’ll avoid extreme verbosity and simply state . . . hogwash. Touring the countryside with Christie in a dark blue State changed nothing and certainly not the “game”. The race is now tied as it has been for months. Realistically, essentially all polling deltas have consistently been and currently are within the margin of error and there has been no statistically significant change in these conditions for months. Your conclusions are simplistic and mundane but typify the analytical prowess of the confused left. And be the way, don’t flatter yourself . . . you are not needed here.

rplat on October 31, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Huh? Where’s the NY stuff?

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Ditto

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:45 PM

“Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 50 percent at this point won, and every incumbent who was under 50 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is under 50 percent.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:40 PM”

Bush wasn’t at 50% in many of these final polls in 04…

Poll
Date
Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Spread
RCP Average
FINAL
50.0%
48.5%
1.0%
Bush +1.5
RCP Average
10/27 – 11/1
48.9%
47.4%
0.9%
Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV)
11/1
49%
50%
0%
Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)
10/31 – 11/1
50%
46%
0%
Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV)
10/30 – 11/1
50.1%
48.0%
1.1%
Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV)
10/29 – 11/1
49%
47%
1%
Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV)
10/29 – 11/1
49%
48%
2%
Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV)
10/30 – 10/31
46%
48%
1%
Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)
10/29 – 10/31
48%
47%
1%
Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*
10/29 – 10/31
49%
49%
1%
TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)
10/29 – 10/31
48%
47%
1%
Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**
10/28 – 10/31
49%
48%
0%
Bush +1

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

But looking at the ABC/Wash Post tracking, Obama is due to be in the lead tomorrow and I would be surprised if Rasmussen didn’t show the same trend. Because of the positive press his handling of the hurricane is generating, the late deciders/undecided will break for Obama, and he will narrow the gap among independents, who just love the bipartisanship thing going on with Christie.

lets see. you made this same claim after the jobs report, bidens’debate, the 2nd presidential debate,3rd presedential debate.

i’l believe it when it happens

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

The complaints against 0 are starting to come in on his handling of the storm. Its not good for him.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Imagine that…the first thing he and FEMA told 7 million people without power is to go to the website to find info! Pathetic. Maybe they could use their refrigerators to find info too!

scalleywag on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I keep hearing that Romney’s momentum has stalled.

Maybe it’s just a way for the dems to get themselves through the night.

But I hate to hear that the Mittmentum is over (I don’t believe it).

tru2tx on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

So Mr. Sustainability show us how you walk the walk. How about some pictures of the green house where you grow organic food. How about some pictures of the solar panels and wind generator that run your house. How about some pictures of the bicycle you ride to work on.

Otherwise Mr. Sustainability elitest you are a do as I say not as I do hypocrite.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

..she is a menopausal old bag lady who parades her shopping cart up and down the Castro District in San Francisco, scouring the trash bins for recyclables that she can convert into spare change to support her sneaky-pete habit. She is always being trailed by a herd of cats (attracted by the fish smell) and often rolls drunk faeries, stealing their sequined bikini bottoms and 7″ platform heels.

At one point, she was a good friend of GummyPoker’s Guatemalan pool boy live-in lover but they got into a fight over some purple Maybelline eye shadow and she urinated into his purse.

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 6:46 PM

So you’re using polls from 2004 – the bulk of which showing Bush leading an election he went on to win – but you’re discounting 2012 polls giving Mitt the lead?

Ok.

Republican on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

No No No! I don’t not want to see pictures of the nudist commune.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:44 PM

ROFLOL. Thanks for the laugh.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Excactly!

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

I keep hearing that Romney’s momentum has stalled.

Maybe it’s just a way for the dems to get themselves through the night.

But I hate to hear that the Mittmentum is over (I don’t believe it).

tru2tx on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Actually it probably has stalled, but stalling does not mean going in reverse. He may have peaked somewhere between 52 and 54% of the vote. Obama has stalled as well. He has bottomed out and staying there.

NotCoach on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

You’re never right. In fact, there has never been a troll on this site who’s been more wrong more often than you. It’s amazing. You should get an award for being so inept. And we should all get an award for having to deal with you.

pokey was right about the wisconsin governor recall. the governor was recalled

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

..here is her picture.

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM

If the best that pollsters can do is to increase Democratic turnout over 2008 to get Obama to a tie or a lead of a couple of points, then that should tell fair-minded people something.

I have not predicted that Romney will win. I have said that my feeling is that Obama will either squeak out a win or Romney will win by a fairly comfortable margin.

Over the last 4 years, we have had a chance to see people in action. The Tea Party succeeded. OccupyWallStreet failed. Chik-Fil-A Day shocked the MSM. The kiss-in at CFA flopped. The 2010 election was the biggest midterm for Congressional races since 1938 and the biggest for Congressional, state, and local races since 1928.

Pollsters are ignoring the past 4 years. They are basing turnout on either 2008 or even predicting higher Democratic turnout. That is just a prediction not grounded in reality or even poll data. Republicans have held a substantial edge in enthusiasm (10%+) for some time and Independents support Romney by upper-single or double-digits. The amount of Democratic support that would be needed to beat those two — provided that both turn out in the votes as they appear to be doing in the polls — probably doesn’t exist in states outside of California, New York, etc.

I am looking at this realistically. I just don’t know how Obama wins if he loses Independents by upper-single or double-digits and Republicans eat into Democratic turnout in the numbers that enthusiasm predict that they will.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Are you and Strike Hornet related?
Great stuff.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM

0′s Katrina?

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Chimpy was relatively lucky in that regard, as he was already a lame-duck President when Katrina hit. But despite the overwhelmingly BDS propaganda put out by the Democrat Media in the wake of that hurricane, his job approval only suffered a mild hit.

Probably because most folks here on Planet Earth, as opposed to the Democrats on Planet Uranus, properly realized that Bush did as well as could be expected, and they saw right thru the Democrat Media’s desperate attempts to shift all blame from the Democrat Mayor and Governor of Louisiana to him exclusively.

By the way, nearly half of all Americans, according to the 2 most recent (last month) “polls”, either don’t even know who Chris Christie is, or have no opinion of him.

And yet this is O’bamna’s Savior!

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Are you and OTTO a tag team. That’s two great laughs in a couple of minutes.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

pokey was right about the wisconsin governor recall. the governor was recalled

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Um, not quite…

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.

The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Walker is a goner…

“A new Rasmussen poll finds that Republican Wisconsin Scott Walker is in trouble of being recalled June 5, with a majority, 52 percent, saying they will vote him out less than two years after he took office and immediately went to work to cut the power of public service unions.

Worse for Walker: 53 percent disapprove of his job as governor with a whopping 46 percent saying they “strongly disapprove” of Walker. Majorities of both men and women now support his recall. Rasmussen found that his support among Republicans and conservatives remains strong.

gumbyandpokey on April 2, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

akaniku on October 31, 2012 at 5:31 PM

So Mr. Sustainability show us how you walk the walk. How about some pictures of the green house where you grow organic food. How about some pictures of the solar panels and wind generator that run your house. How about some pictures of the bicycle you ride to work on.
Otherwise Mr. Sustainability elitest you are a do as I say not as I do hypocrite.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM

He’s unemployed and he lives with his parents, as he confessed on a previous thread, he blames his unemployment status on the Bush economy :), despite the fact that obozo has been in office for 4 years, shocka, eh…this actually means that in 4 years he was incapable of re-traininng and getting some real skills (liberal arts don’t count) but gladly enjoyed the break, the food stamps and momma’s basement….So, ladies and gentlemen, I give you the typical Obama voter :)…

jimver on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

How on earth could they have missed Christie? P.S. I am not a fan of his. I thought he screwed the pooch today and Mitt.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

we’ll than i agree he has never been right about anything

btw i made my post knowing he had picked wisconsin wrong.

lol

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Are you and Strike Hornet related?
Great stuff.

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:51 PM
chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:52 PM

..nah, I am just a humble servant to mankind and watchdog for the transient riff-raff that wander over here in an attempt to alter reality and practice their deviated preversions.

OTTO is the real artiste here!

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 6:53 PM

you should post this after EVERY pokey comment

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:56 PM

pokey was right about the wisconsin governor recall. the governor was recalled

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:49 PM

There is a difference in having a recall election and losing the elected and being actually recalled. Walker won the election.

The same is true about B. Clinton. He had articles of Impeachment brought against him from the House of Representatives but was not actually Impeached via a trial in the Senate.

chemman on October 31, 2012 at 6:57 PM

The complaints against 0 are starting to come in on his handling of the storm. Its not good for him.

Bmore on October 31, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Where? By Whom? Just curious, I thought everyone is singing Hosanna.

bayview on October 31, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I keep hearing that Romney’s momentum has stalled

tru2tx on October 31, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Most of the left is still without power and their world has stalled as well. I’m living out of a cooler right now, but still have the world at my fingertips. Broken glass, power lines and puddles can’t stop me now!

OTTO on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

you should post this after EVERY pokey comment

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 6:56 PM

..this wise young lady does a magnificent job of crowding this clown. We’re talking Grade A suffocation here!

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 6:58 PM

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