Karl Rove’s prediction: Romney 51, Obama 48

posted at 9:27 pm on October 31, 2012 by Allahpundit

A shot of optimism after a day of eeyorish state polls. How does Rove arrive at this result when eight of the last nine Ohio surveys have O ahead? In two steps: (1) He clearly trusts the national data over the state data, and (2) he cites historical numbers showing that incumbents recently have tended to overperform their national polling on election day by only one percent or so. Obama’s tied with Romney in the RCP national average tonight at 47.4. If, per the historical data, O’s ceiling is therefore at 48 percent, then it follows that most everyone else will break for Romney and that his national advantage will carry him to narrow wins in the states he needs.

As for Ohio:

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the America Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP “millennials” (voters aged 18-29) who’ve voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party’s early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections.

In other words, the dam that O’s built among early voters simply isn’t tall enough to hold back the red tide next Tuesday. One caveat to Rove’s point about the national numbers, though: According to RCP, Obama’s either tied or ahead in seven of the last 10 national polls taken. Romney still leads in Rasmussen and Gallup, and in only three of those 10 does Obama reach 49 percent or higher, but things have evened out a bit after Romney’s post-Denver debate surge. Case in point is the new Fox News poll tonight, which has the race dead even at 46 after Romney led by a point in early October. The topline number is not so good for Mitt, but the fundamentals are:

Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October…

Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent…

Romney’s supporters continue to be more enthusiastic: 69 percent say it’s extremely important he win, while 59 percent of those backing Obama feel that way.

Romney also leads on this metric, which will hopefully influence a lot of undecideds next week:

How is Obama even when the numbers look that rosy for his opponent? Partly because the partisan split has moved from D+1 in the last poll taken in October to D+5 in this one, which strains credulity as a prospect for election day. This is why it’s so hard to make guesses based on the polls right now — even some of the ones that are in sync, like the national polls showing O inching into a tie, have obvious weaknesses that may make the results questionable.

Rove’s other prediction, incidentally: At least 279 electoral votes, which jibes with Romney political director Rich Beeson telling reporters today that he thinks the campaign can win a few other midwestern states besides Ohio. Exit question: Second look at Karl Rove?


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Conservative prediction

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Obama is going to be at 47%. Whether they admit it or not is another issue.

txmomof6 on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Make it so patriots…make it so.

CitizenEgg on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 PM

The architect.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Second look at Karl Rove.

Too funny.

BKeyser on October 31, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Let it be dear Lord, let it be.

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Obama is going to be at 47%. Whether they admit it or not is another issue.

txmomof6 on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I love the irony of the 47%.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Karl Rove’s prediction: Romney 51, Obama 48

I think the split will be bigger. I’m not sure how big, but I think more than 3%.

Count to 10 on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Hey, what the …

I was Bishop when I first posted …

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I think it will be a bigger spread when its all said and done.

Telling a pollster who you will vote for, and actually standing in line for them are two different things.

I don’t think the casual Obama voter thinks Obama is worth standing in line for.

I predict a R56% vs D 43% Other 1%

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Obama will max out at 47 percent no matter what happens, people made up their minds they want their money and jobs

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Early voting numbers indicate Obama has already received 184% of the registered voter ballots.

BobMbx on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Lots of polls out lately with stupidly high numbers of undecideds for this late in the game. Either people have been thrown back into confusion (in which case they’re likely uncertain between Romney and staying home) or it’s a sign that there’s serious poll manipulation going on.

Not that anybody would manipulate polls for a phony narrative or anything…

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Rove is good on analyzing polls and knowing the voting map, but not much else.

conservative pilgrim on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

47% or whatever

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

I’ll take it

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

OT…..Drudge

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

STORY SAID TO INVOLVE POWERFUL SENATOR, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE. DAILY CALLER PLANS LATE NIGHT RELEASE…

KCB on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Via Drudge:

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

STORY SAID TO INVOLVE POWERFUL SENATOR, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE. DAILY CALLER PLANS LATE NIGHT RELEASE…

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

STORY SAID TO INVOLVE POWERFUL SENATOR, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE. DAILY CALLER PLANS LATE NIGHT RELEASE…

ruh roh!
just updated

ted c on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

O/t drudge just updated the sex scandal tease. Apparently it involves a “powerful senator”. Daily Caller to drop sometime soon.

Kataklysmic on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

The media has no interest in polling “the value voters” this election cycle. Why? Because this would tell the story about the landslide that will happen next Tuesday.

the value voters = both republican and democrate

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Aloha

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

It’s a Senator involved in “Tickle Fighting”.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Sounds good to me. Obama is toast.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Whatever shot Romney had with PA, Christie has probably killed it off.

Lot of Philly burbs people vacation at the Shore.

I’m hoping it doesn’t cascade outside of that area.

We’ll know this weekend.

…and I’m blaming Christie…

…because without that spread, this wouldn’t have moved the needle with moderates/indies/disaffected Obama voters.

budfox on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Haha. Y’all are quick on the draw

Kataklysmic on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 PM

It’s Obama as a senator , who was the chick that Michelle fired who was always with him

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 PM

So, cast your vote…..

I was going to wait until election day because I love to go to the polls and all that. I know, I’m nuts, but I love to vote.

Well, I’m in Nevada and we have early voting which I HATE, but then I didn’t get to vote on that.

After what happened on the east coast, I am chomping at the bit to vote because I now have this fear that something will happen and I won’t get to vote. I can go do it tomorrow. I am more than ready to pull the lever. But then I lose out on the fun of going to the poll.

What do ya’ll think?

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Rove pulled off not one but two national victories for the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse (the Texan on a horse of color).

Not exactly an easy task.

CorporatePiggy on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

The little gophers in Colorado went 52-47 for Romney.

Fallon on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

54-46 Romney. Chris Matthews falls out on national TV crying and screaming for his beloved Barry.

Dick Nixon on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

If it is a democrat sex scandal ie. infidelity, gay tryst, running a brothel from your crib, rape, or other base behaviour…

then is is a resume enhancer for the amoral leftist democrat.

tom daschle concerned on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

that’s the good news

here’s the predicable news…leftist R Hagel endorses other white male good ole’ boy Kerrey

http://twitchy.com/2012/10/31/democrats-celebrate-bipartisanship-as-chuck-hagel-endorses-bob-kerrey-in-nebraska/

mental midgets like hagel are a big part of the problem with this country…these types of pols are the slimiest because they like their little cozy club…16T? let someone else worry about that

and obamacare…pfft…kerrey and i go back.

leftist/progressive Rs who suck up money from everyone else are too stupid to have a clue…and btw..no D will ever return the favor to hagel…yes, he is that stupid

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 PM

3, just 3? Aint buying it, but will take it.

hillsoftx on October 31, 2012 at 9:40 PM

knowing tucker carlson, it will prob be against an R…a conservative R

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

To be on the safe side. Go. Vote. Tomorrow.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 PM

Second look? What did he predict in 2008?

Cindy Munford on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 PM

What do ya’ll think?

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 PM

I don’t do the “fear” thing or play “what if”.

Just me.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 PM

G’Evening, Bazil.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:44 PM

So what are the Obama’s going to do to the White House just before leaving?

Removing the “R” key on all the keyboards is so 2001.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Don’t bet against Rove…

You can’t beat him…

MGardner on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Rove isn’t a Pollyanna. If he thought Zero was going to win, he’d say so. He sure as hell said so in ’08, over and over and over. He also said he thought Zero would win last summer. Now, he is calling a Romney win with no hesitation whatsoever. That means he’s done the math, and the math adds up. Rove knows election math.

Rational Thought on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Second look? What did he predict in 2008?

Cindy Munford on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 PM

I just looked this up a few minutes ago. Rove predicted an Obama electoral college landslide in 2008. He had it Obama 338 McCain 200. The only misses he had was giving Indiana and North Carolina to McCain.

Mark1971 on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 PM

So what are the Obama’s going to do to the White House just before leaving?

Removing the “R” key on all the keyboards is so 2001.

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Hiding all the T.P. and putting plastic wrap under the toilet seats is more the Obama’s style.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 PM

51 would be great, but I hope he hits 52 or more.
And yes, RCP’s state poll aggregator started to turn rancid again today.

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Howdy my Granny. :)

You revving up your people in Oiho? :)
I have Fl covered..we need you.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

It’s Obama as a senator , who was the chick that Michelle fired who was always with him

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Vera Baker

Brat on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Second look? What did he predict in 2008?

Cindy Munford on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 PM

He knew Barry was going to win.

Kataklysmic on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Hey, what the …

I was Bishop when I first posted …

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I believe you.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Sorry Scad, HD got the Bishop. Better luck next time. (:

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 PM

B nine
B mine

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I’m betting that the senator is Barbara Mikulski.

Mark1971 on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Case in point is the new Fox News poll tonight, which has the race dead even at 46 after Romney led by a point in early October. The topline number is not so good for Mitt,

I remember that Fox had Kerry 3 points ahead in 2008 in their last poll.

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I hope he is right, in 2008 he picked Obama to win, and he was right. Here’s 17 reasons to NOT vote for Obama: http://twitter.com/gopthinking/status/255068615475331072/photo/1

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Buh-bye, O.

John the Libertarian on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Sounds about right.

farsighted on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Hmmmm, what senator would be a problem for the campaign? Unless it’s Obama or Biden, it won’t be a big deal…..Kane? I’d be happy if it was Harry Reid ….

BettyRuth on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

my guess is schumer

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Its Halloween not Valentines Day..
but I’ll take it.:)

Ps. I already am. :)
P.s.s..stay on topic!

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 PM

I cannot stand Upchuck Hagel. I apologize profusely for voting for him. Of course, the choice was him or Ben Nelson.

NebCon on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Howdy my Granny. :)

You revving up your people in Oiho? :)
I have Fl covered..we need you.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Sure have done a lot here by sending out emails, links, YouTube vids, you name it and I’ve probably done it. Only one stubborn Leftie I couldn’t convince.

I’ve lost count of all the registered Dems we know, including union members, who voted for O in 2008 but are voting for R&R this year. They are very vocal in how much they hate everything O has done to this country. Hopefully, there are many, many more Dems in Ohio who feel the same way.

Election night will be a real nail-biter here. If the early votes/absentees go R&R, then it should be a done deal.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Sorry Scad, HD got the Bishop. Better luck next time. (:

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 PM

It’s yours HD, with tip of the hat :)

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Interesting fact about Vera Baker, (Obamma’s alleged mistress), she had a prominent online presence until about April 2008, when everything was literally scrubbed on her. And she moved to a foreign country too IIRC.

Hopefully that’s the big sex surprise.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Rove’s being overly conservative, since that’s his nature and he always likes to save the best for last, as it doesn’t risk complacency and builds even more momentum at closing time. He’ll come out with something even better Monday, my guess.

I’ve known him for 30 years, and that’s just his way.

As to the EV, I’m still maintaining that Romney gets from about 315 to 330, including OH and PA.

TXUS on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

I want R53-47%
So I can laugh till I fall.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 PM

It’s a democrat senator for sure, Harry Reid!!!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Not even a glance at Rove unless he suddenly gives AKIN some money. And also none to the RNC and NRSC All arrogant and pig headed that seems to want a Dem to win. If Akin loses it is thier fault not Akins

Bullhead on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 PM

I want R53-47%
So I can laugh till I fall.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Me too. That would be soooooo D-Lish.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Sure have done a lot here by sending out emails, links, YouTube vids, you name it and I’ve probably done it. Only one stubborn Leftie I couldn’t convince.

I’ve lost count of all the registered Dems we know, including union members, who voted for O in 2008 but are voting for R&R this year. They are very vocal in how much they hate everything O has done to this country. Hopefully, there are many, many more Dems in Ohio who feel the same way.

Election night will be a real nail-biter here. If the early votes/absentees go R&R, then it should be a done deal.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

I don’t know a single black person that’s voting for Barky

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 PM

I said it in Feb, May, Aug,Sept, Oct and starting tomorrow Nov. Romney 58% Obumbler 40% and Other 2% and we will all be racists on Wednesday morning. I’ll take it! Plus Karl Rove is a fatheaded azzhole.

Tbone McGraw on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 PM

It appears that the pollsters did just what i thought they would do; adjust the sample to a small Dem lead and then at the end spread the sample out to D+5 and create the impression of momentum for O and make it a horserace again. Spin it for your guy and make it more interesting to cover…a twofer for the media.

The Opinionator on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 PM

That’s why it’s easier to say, the Republicans won a wave election in 2010. Since that time the Democrats have declared war on the tea party, held up almost all legislation coming from the people’s representatives in the House, and not passed a budget in the Senate, keeping spending at the inflated levels Democrats put through which aggravated the tea party in the first place. Based on this, why should Democrats win this time around and what has Barack Obama done to earn a single vote? I’m just saying!!!

bflat879 on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

now this is clever. go to DC to check out sex story..and right now, one of the lead stories

Lowery, who gave the benediction at the January 2009 inauguration of President Barack Obama, told the audience of up to 300 African-Americans “that when he was a young militant, he used to say all white folks were going to hell. Then he mellowed and just said most of them were. Now, he said, he is back to where he was,” according to an Oct. 31 report in the Monroe County Reporter newspaper.

“I don’t know what kind of a n—– wouldn’t vote with a black man running,” Lowery also told the audience in the St. James Baptist Church in Forsyth, Ga., according to the Reporter.

“He was saying [that] based on all of the hatred that’s going on” towards President Barack Obama, Helen Butler, the executive director of Lowery’s Georgia-based Coalition for the People’s Agenda, told The Daily Caller.

“He just fell that he should feel the way he used to feel,” Butler, who attended the rally, explained.

“Of course he doesn’t believe that all whites should go to hell,” she added.

charming

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/31/all-whites-are-going-to-hell-says-civil-rights-icon/#ixzz2AvpQspAq

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

I’d guess the “powerful senator” is Reid, although if it were Schumer or Durbin, that would be amusing too.

The most useful one would be Sherrod Brown, but he’s not exactly powerful.

Mr. D on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Rove isn’t a Pollyanna. If he thought Zero was going to win, he’d say so. He sure as hell said so in ’08, over and over and over. He also said he thought Zero would win last summer. Now, he is calling a Romney win with no hesitation whatsoever. That means he’s done the math, and the math adds up. Rove knows election math.

Rove’s math of early voting gave Romney Ohio tonight on O’Reilly…

MGardner on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Good on you Granny!

I’ve done my part with what I could.

If y’all go red..I will become an
Indians fan..hows that? Will that help turn the vote?
:)

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM

I remember that Fox had Kerry 3 points ahead in 2008 in their last poll.

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I meant to say 2004. BTW, I hear the sex scandal involves Kerry.

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM

There’s a question I’ve been dying to ask for a while: why do people place so much importance on this “RCP average” thingamajig?

RCP just frickin takes the bunch of whatever polls that come out that day, and average them up. There is no effort, no mystery, no magic involved. We can all do the same thing and come up with the exact same daily average.

I just don’t understand why everyone in the world has started quoting the “RCP average” as some sort of God like truth or indicator of the election.

tkyang99 on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 PM

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Yeah, I saw that earlier tonight. And I’m sure Lowery really believes he’s doing God’s work.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Sorry Scad, HD got the Bishop. Better luck next time. (:

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 PM
It’s yours HD, with tip of the hat :)

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 PM

This has happened before during the great comment time mix of 2010. Bishop falls to the way it appears after the dust settles. Schade wins … this time.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 PM

This is not the time to air out the dirty laundry of some poor Senator who simply got caught with his pants down. Its all idle speculation anyway.

For he who has not sinned I dare you to throw the first stone.

We should wait until it hits Drudge. Then meme the heck out of it 24/7 until the Donks beg for mercy.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 PM

I’d guess the “powerful senator” is Reid, although if it were Schumer or Durbin, that would be amusing too.

The most useful one would be Sherrod Brown, but he’s not exactly powerful.

Mr. D on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Try a little diversity.

Boxer, Frankenfeintstein, McCaskill, etc….

BobMbx on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Allaphpundit, when are you going to just stop worrying about very biased media polls insanely oversampling democrats and even with this they are still showing Romney winning independents by an 8 points on average? Do you really think that Romney is going to lose Ohio and the elections when he is winning the independents by 8 points on average in Ohio and nationally? Do you really believe that the democrats in 2012 are going to match or even surpass their turnouts of 2008 when every poll including the biased one show a huge enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans?

Just look at the absentee ballots request from Ohio. As of today (less than 3 days are left for absentee ballots request in Ohio) the democrat have requested 125,000 absentee ballots LESS than 2008 and the Republican have requested 10,000 MORE absentee ballots than in 2008… Therefore just in absentee ballots alone Obama has lost 135,000 votes in Ohio in 2012 compared to 2008 and that is assuming that all the democrats absentee ballots are voting for him. He won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes. If in absentee ballots alone he is going to lose at least 135,000 votes then there is no way he is going to win Ohio…

Link to Ohio absentee ballots request:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

mnjg on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Mitt, win big enough to prevent a Supreme Court intervention.

Philly on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Good on you Granny!

I’ve done my part with what I could.

If y’all go red..I will become an
Indians fan..hows that? Will that help turn the vote?
:)

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Oh, Sweetie, you don’t have to go that far!!! Even I’m not a Tribe fan.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Karl Rove, the guy who has THE math?

Awesome! Obama victory now guaranteed!

Constantine on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

I don’t know a single black person that’s voting for Barky

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 PM

In Ohio?
Heh..not here in Florduh..
My only neighbors with 0 signs.
Oh and an older Peruvian couple on the corner.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Too close. I want to see a bigger margin. I want not just a win, but a defeat so crushing it will send these America-hating leftists back underground for another hundred years.

petefrt on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

I guess what I’m asking is, what makes RCP a better picker and averager of polls, than you or me or my 90 yr old granma?

Why do people keep quoting them? Why give them the free publicity? What have they done to deserve it?

tkyang99 on October 31, 2012 at 10:01 PM

The most useful one would be Sherrod Brown, but he’s not exactly powerful.

Mr. D on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Ohio!

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 10:01 PM

I hear the sex scandal involves Kerry.

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Even grosser..(if possible)
If he didnt have money..who would touch that?
$ goes a long way I am guessing..

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Ace thinks it’s a D senator.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

If you hover over the Constipatedteen link, it’s Mediamatters. So, it doesn’t matter.

Skip, rinse, repeat.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Breitbart lives!!!

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Conservative prediction

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 PM

heh.

Firefly_76 on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Karl Rove, the guy who has THE math?

Awesome! Obama victory now guaranteed!

Constantine on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Media Matters?

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !!!!

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Further reading from Dan McLaughlin. I’ll give you the close:

We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.

Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.

Note – those eeyorish state polls assume a turnout model that is at least as heavy-Rat as 2008. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Steve Eggleston on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 PM
Even grosser..(if possible)
If he didnt have money..who would touch that?
$ goes a long way I am guessing..

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Morticia Addams?

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Rove is good on analyzing polls and knowing the voting map, but not much else.
conservative pilgrim on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Really? Because a his predictions of the last 3 elections were on the mark.

jawkneemusic on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Who is on the ruling committee for Bishops? What say you? We need them to review the tape.

Article 9 section 3 is somewhat vague on the issue at hand.

HD had a Bishop in the grasp but it may have slipped away during transmission when Schad clicked his mouse.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 PM

we will win

rob verdi on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 PM

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