Karl Rove’s prediction: Romney 51, Obama 48

posted at 9:27 pm on October 31, 2012 by Allahpundit

A shot of optimism after a day of eeyorish state polls. How does Rove arrive at this result when eight of the last nine Ohio surveys have O ahead? In two steps: (1) He clearly trusts the national data over the state data, and (2) he cites historical numbers showing that incumbents recently have tended to overperform their national polling on election day by only one percent or so. Obama’s tied with Romney in the RCP national average tonight at 47.4. If, per the historical data, O’s ceiling is therefore at 48 percent, then it follows that most everyone else will break for Romney and that his national advantage will carry him to narrow wins in the states he needs.

As for Ohio:

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the America Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP “millennials” (voters aged 18-29) who’ve voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party’s early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections.

In other words, the dam that O’s built among early voters simply isn’t tall enough to hold back the red tide next Tuesday. One caveat to Rove’s point about the national numbers, though: According to RCP, Obama’s either tied or ahead in seven of the last 10 national polls taken. Romney still leads in Rasmussen and Gallup, and in only three of those 10 does Obama reach 49 percent or higher, but things have evened out a bit after Romney’s post-Denver debate surge. Case in point is the new Fox News poll tonight, which has the race dead even at 46 after Romney led by a point in early October. The topline number is not so good for Mitt, but the fundamentals are:

Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October…

Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent…

Romney’s supporters continue to be more enthusiastic: 69 percent say it’s extremely important he win, while 59 percent of those backing Obama feel that way.

Romney also leads on this metric, which will hopefully influence a lot of undecideds next week:

How is Obama even when the numbers look that rosy for his opponent? Partly because the partisan split has moved from D+1 in the last poll taken in October to D+5 in this one, which strains credulity as a prospect for election day. This is why it’s so hard to make guesses based on the polls right now — even some of the ones that are in sync, like the national polls showing O inching into a tie, have obvious weaknesses that may make the results questionable.

Rove’s other prediction, incidentally: At least 279 electoral votes, which jibes with Romney political director Rich Beeson telling reporters today that he thinks the campaign can win a few other midwestern states besides Ohio. Exit question: Second look at Karl Rove?


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Mitt, win big enough to prevent a Supreme Court intervention.

Philly on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 PM

May it be “outside the margin of fraud.”
(Mark Levin)

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 PM

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

lol…whatever it takes!
My bag O’ tricks is close to empty right now.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 PM

In Ohio?
Heh..not here in Florduh..
My only neighbors with 0 signs.
Oh and an older Peruvian couple on the corner.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Not in my neighborhood, all are voting R & R this election cycle including a single black female, mother of two. If this is a trend? landslide!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Even grosser..(if possible)
If he didnt have money..who would touch that?
$ goes a long way I am guessing..

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Kerry?
Reid?
Brown?

Not all the money and gold in the world would be enough for me.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM

drudge said it was a campaign…powerful senator

Nelson..FL
Casey..PA and of course
McCaskil..MO

bwahahahahahahaha

the rest are pretty safe seats…Stabenow, Mendendez, Cantwell

r keller on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM

I’m surprised nobody at HA remembers Rove calling it for Barry in ’08.

It’s what really started the blood feud between him and Palin.

A lot of Conserv’s/Nista’s/Tea Partiers write Karl off for about, I dunno…3years 6months roughly… after that.

budfox on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Everybody, turn the lights off and watch Halloween on AMC! I’m Scared!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Gumby? The cartoon network is on!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 PM

The story involves a Senator flying down to a big donor’s place in the Caribbean for orgies. Hookers are involved.

The One Big Snag in the story is that the story comes from hookers — a couple of them, I hear — and their credibility is, well. They’re hookers. It’s not Gold Standard.

Well, I guess I shouldn’t call them “hookers.” Let’s say “escorts.”

Escorts, for your penis.

They’re miffed because they didn’t get fully paid for services rendered.

Always pay your foreign hookers for services rendered at big donor sex orgies.

Always pay your foreign hookers for services rendered at big donor sex orgies.

Don’t they teach nobody nothin’ no more?

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Hmmmm, what senator would be a problem for the campaign? Unless it’s Obama or Biden, it won’t be a big deal…..Kane? I’d be happy if it was Harry Reid ….

BettyRuth on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 PM

It’s a democrat senator for sure, Harry Reid!!!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 PM

…I don’t think Harry Reid has anything THAT WORKS!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

STORY SAID TO INVOLVE POWERFUL SENATOR, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE. DAILY CALLER PLANS LATE NIGHT RELEASE…

ruh roh!
just updated

ted c on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Reid?

But who would have sex with him?

Oh, I know.

VorDaj on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Has Kerry found a woman more wealthy than Terezzzza?

Philly on October 31, 2012 at 10:10 PM

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Kerry?
Reid?
Brown?

Not all the money and gold in the world would be enough for me.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Well me neither..for many reasons LOL
But really..look at some of these people..
if they had no “power” or $
they couldn’t get a date with the 300 lb
wal-mart checker with facial hair and a 3 inch mole on her cheek.
Be honest. Same with celebs.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

The story involves a Senator flying down to a big donor’s place in the Caribbean for orgies. Ho*kers are involved.

The One Big Snag in the story is that the story comes from hookers — a couple of them, I hear — and their credibility is, well. They’re ho*kers. It’s not Gold Standard.

Well, I guess I shouldn’t call them “ho*kers.” Let’s say “escorts.”

Escorts, for your pen*s.

They’re miffed because they didn’t get fully paid for services rendered.

Always pay your foreign ho*kers for services rendered at big donor s*x orgi*s.

Always pay your foreign ho*kers for services rendered at big donor s*x orgi*s.

Don’t they teach nobody nothin’ no more?

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Who is on the ruling committee for Bishops? What say you? We need them to review the tape.

Article 9 section 3 is somewhat vague on the issue at hand.

HD had a Bishop in the grasp but it may have slipped away during transmission when Schad clicked his mouse.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Oh sure, try to get me to whine about an obvious indication Scade posted first. (Even though after I clinked, my comment was the only one there, YES!!!)

Sure, get me to whine like a liberal for something I know I can’t have. It won’t work, I concede Bishop to Schadenfreude.

I just wish his freaking name wasn’t so “foreign” because I had to go back to page one to see how “Schadenfreude’ is speeled.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Well me neither..for many reasons LOL
But really..look at some of these people..
if they had no “power” or $
they couldn’t get a date with the 300 lb
wal-mart checker with facial hair and a 3 inch mole on her cheek.
Be honest. Same with celebs.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Good point!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

I remember that Fox had Kerry 3 points ahead in 2008 in their last poll.

Terrye on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I know you mean 2004, but the Fox poll, I think, has always been watered down in favor of Dems, just to fight back on the bias meme always lodged at them. Fair and balanced, taken to somewhat of an extreme. Then, when the results end up as they know it will be, they can say in the Manhattan cocktail parties how they we were surprised, too.

TXUS on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

300+ EVs w/b outside of the “margin of fraud”.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Reid?

But who would have sex with him?

Oh, I know.

VorDaj on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

He has no lady parts.

JPeterman on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

I thought Bishop only counted on QOTD

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

That’s why I call him Schad. Its because I can’t spell Schadinfrude.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

I thought Bishop only counted on QOTD

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Does’t count there either. It’s a kindergarten exercise.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You will both be excused on the spelling, so long as you display the emotio if Obama loses.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 PM

emotion

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 PM

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Not in my neighborhood, all are voting R & R this election cycle including a single black female, mother of two. If this is a trend? landslide!

jjnco73 on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Well I am glad “Identity” and skin hue isn’t playing a factor where you are.
Very nice to hear.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 PM

I thought Bishop only counted on QOTD

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Yes. True, provided you are playing by the Olympic rules where everything is metric.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Gallup will release one final national poll Monday night. It will be a 4 day average. Thursday-Friday-Sat-Sun. Anxious to see what they show.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 PM

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

I dont know if your kidding..
I always mess is it up..without my sp check (spell not spark plug lol)
So I say Schad.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Rasmussen said on Hannity tonight it’s too close to call and anyone who thinks they know are fooling themselves or they are partisans (or words to that effect– I was grading papers while listening).

But then it’s in Rasmussen’s interest (add RCP and Gallup, etc) to keep us all on pins and needles so we’ll keep reading his blog.

rebuzz on October 31, 2012 at 10:19 PM

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You will both be excused on the spelling, so long as you display the emotio if Obama loses.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Oh, I am spending the entire day hunting from my very tall tree stand and then going straight to the TV sofa with ticks and chiggers in my hair and smelling of deer lure. I will not shower till it’s over. I can assure you, I will be emotional when he goes down.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 PM

…I don’t think Harry Reid has anything THAT WORKS!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Even if he did, he wouldn’t remember how to work it.

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I just wish his freaking name wasn’t so “foreign” because I had to go back to page one to see how “Schadenfreude’ is speeled.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Those Austrian words are very hard to spell even if you are the President.

VorDaj on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Oh, I am spending the entire day hunting from my very tall tree stand and then going straight to the TV sofa with ticks and chiggers in my hair and smelling of deer lure. I will not shower till it’s over. I can assure you, I will be emotional when he goes down.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 PM

lol..well damn..
your da man.
Thats hard core..:)

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Those Austrian words are very hard to spell even if you are the President.

VorDaj on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 PM

May the idiot go to Hades, mocked into oblivion.

Schadenfreude on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 PM

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Ever since I invented a new programming language for the Spark IV Numerical Copulator (using nothing but Roman Numerals) the alphabet has become utterly complex and alien to me.

I can teach it to you.

Lesson 1:
XCIVIICLVDXCM, translated, is the word for Flan.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Even if he did, he wouldn’t remember how to work it.

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I am going to get sick y’all!
But thx..needed a nauseous laugh.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Reid?

But who would have sex with him?

Oh, I know.

VorDaj on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

C’mon, his wit, looks, great personality. If that don’t work roofies or chloroform will.

arnold ziffel on October 31, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Does anyone know much about Nate Silver?

stenwin77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:30 PM

I thought Bishop only counted on QOTD

Jvette on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Bishop counts wherever he damn pleases.

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I’m surprised nobody at HA remembers Rove calling it for Barry in ’08.

It’s what really started the blood feud between him and Palin.

A lot of Conserv’s/Nista’s/Tea Partiers write Karl off for about, I dunno…3years 6months roughly… after that.

budfox

In fact, here is what he predicted:
“Karl Rove, who is widely credited as the mastermind behind President Bush’s election victories in 2000 and 2004, predicts that Democratic nominee Barack Obama will win Tuesday’s election with 338 electoral votes while Republican John McCain garners 200.”

Final score: 365-173

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Does anyone know much about Nate Silver?

stenwin77 on October 31, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Not much is know beyond his criminal record, his drug addiction, and his dishing out spousal abuse.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Ever since I invented a new programming language for the Spark IV Numerical Copulator (using nothing but Roman Numerals) the alphabet has become utterly complex and alien to me.

I can teach it to you.

Lesson 1:
XCIVIICLVDXCM, translated, is the word for Flan.

SparkPlug on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Cause I am your best girl evah..do I get the Spark IV Num Copulator free? :)
Yummm@ XCIVIICLVDXCM.

Translate bigot queen of darkness for me.
I shall use it.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Karl Rove’s prediction: Romney 51, Obama 48

Well. the Man is 2 for 2 on hurricanes, so we best take note here.

Bruno Strozek on October 31, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Does anyone know much about Nate Silver?

stenwin77

He is a former Kos blogger and baseball statistician. The fact liberals flock to him to make themselves feel better kinda makes it obvious where his loyalty is. Also seems to have a problem of putting too much emphasis on older polls and ignoring bad samples when they trend his way.

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Is Nate Silver the guy who wrote (many months ago) that there were no scandals in the O administration?

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:35 PM

it’s Mediamatters. So, it doesn’t matter.
Skip, rinse, repeat.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Quoting Rove from NPR, ABC and AP.

I sometimes forget the folks here at Hot Air have difficulty with reading comprehension.

Constantine on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 PM

I sometimes forget the folks here at Hot Air have difficulty with reading comprehension.

Constantine on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Buy a Spark IV Numerical Copulator.
We need translation.

bazil9 on October 31, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Is Nate Silver the guy who wrote (many months ago) that there were no scandals in the O administration?

GrannyDee

Um, that would require me to read the New York Times and you couldn’t pay me to do that.

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Um, that would require me to read the New York Times and you couldn’t pay me to do that.

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Dittos.

GrannyDee on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Really? Because a his predictions of the last 3 elections were on the mark.

jawkneemusic on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Analyzing polls & knowing the map would include predicting election outcomes. His record is definitely better than Dick Morris’.

conservative pilgrim on October 31, 2012 at 11:10 PM

55/45 R. Going to be a bloodbath. If it is anything else, widespread fraud going on.

nazo311 on October 31, 2012 at 11:20 PM

If it’s close we get four more years of Obama and the country is lost due to the Democrats impressive getaway with fraud game. They won’t let another election like 2000 happen again.

The momentum we have assumed Romney has developed had better be real. If so, I see it 52-47 Romney and we attempt to take our country back.

Anyone read about the looters on Coney Island after the storm? If O wins that will be the future of the USA.

Rockshine on October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM

Won’t believe it til Rove whips out the whiteboard.

socalcon on October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM

Obama 48. This country is so screwed.

Mr. Arrogant on November 1, 2012 at 12:16 AM

Umm.. doubt that this is the case. Romney will still lose by Ohio. Anyone talking about the fundamentals is losing.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 12:19 AM

I spoke to a colleague of mine today. Nicest guy in the world, but a big Lib. He said “you know your guy is gonna lose next week?” I told him he better have a stiff drink sitting next to him when he’s watching the election results. So then he says, “look, I know how it works because I don’t watch FoxNews”. Not exactly sure what he meant, but the lazy overconfidence he exuded reminded me of the Tortoise and the Hare.

Yeah, this guy will go out and vote for Obama, but a) he has no clue just how fired up our side is and how many disillusioned Indies there are, and b) there are plenty of others who are as overconfident as he is who won’t go to the trouble to vote.

ardenenoch on November 1, 2012 at 12:44 AM

Bmores prediction. R 54% 0 45%

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Only 51 to 48? I kinda had my heart set on… a much bigger victory.

Ukiah on November 1, 2012 at 2:01 AM

He said “you know your guy is gonna lose next week?”

Remind him nicely that Obama is not your guy.

Ukiah on November 1, 2012 at 2:02 AM

“One caveat to Rove’s point about the national numbers, though: According to RCP, Obama’s either tied or ahead in seven of the last 10 national polls taken. ”

Once again Allahpundit falls for the garbage that RCP peddles. Garbage in, garbage out. They factor all the grossly slanted polls, so their ‘poll of polls’ is an even bigger pile of garbage. It is the essence of their collective deceit, almost as bad as Politico’s ouright Pravda. And worse, somebody that ought to know better or at least have more acumen about the issue – especially after the last several weeks of shouted corrections – now peddles that same garbage to the audience here.

rayra on November 1, 2012 at 2:49 AM

I sometimes forget the folks here at Hot Air have difficulty with reading comprehension.

Constantine on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Oh, I read fine. But anything linked to an organization that had the onions to claim they were a media watch-dog group at inception and then immediately start concentrating on a single network, (FOX) is almost required by law to be passed over. They pay listeners to monitor The Rush Limbaugh and Hannity Shows for God’s sake.

That Fox actually used to have their reps on discussion panels is hilarious.

hawkdriver on November 1, 2012 at 6:18 AM

Love him or hate him Rove has never been one to look threw rose color glasses.He said in 2008 2 weeks before the election Obama was going to win using his little white board.In 2010 he said the GOP would take back the house but fall short 2 or 3 seats in the senate.

logman1 on November 1, 2012 at 6:28 AM

Every oddsmaker in Las Vegas disagrees with Rove.

But hey, what do they know? Rove has the math.

inklake on November 1, 2012 at 6:31 AM

Hawkdriver,
Good to see you this evening, oh sorry morning for you evening for me. Would love to be hunting next Tuesday as well but well, I am in a place I can’t unfortunately. That said, that young man we are fixing to put in the WH as the VP has a bad habit of texting from the tree-stand. So I ask you not do the same, I gave him the same warning, and its even more important now he doesn’t. He has a firm handshake and carries a picture of his biggest deer on his blackberry. I met him in DEFAC 5, in the winter of 11 on Leatherneck. He is who he claims to be, and one of the few that I would claim is a real statesman INMHO compared to most of the rest who are just self centered politicians.

MarshFox on November 1, 2012 at 6:46 AM

Rasmussen has inexplicably been using. D+4 sample in their polling. He announced on Hannity last night he expects electorate to be D+2 which in itself.is odd since his own work says the electorate is now R+3.

Anyway if he goes to D+2 today we should see a move back to 50/46 or 51/47. We need something to offset the idiocy from NJ with their D+8 sample.

mitchellvii on November 1, 2012 at 7:09 AM

took my little ones trick or treating last night , and there was not a single obama sign any where to be seen. yet 90 percent of the houses sported Romney Ryan signs… i live in florida so im guessing Florida is most likely a lock for Romney still. but i gotta admit i saw the best sign ever last night it said…..Fight organized crime….Re-Elect NO ONE!

katee bayer on November 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I enjoy reading the polls and the dissection of how the pollster got those numbers but I fear every time I read that Romney’s ahead. I fear this gives more incentive for fraud and might encourage lazy voters to go vote for the Owe.

I prefer to leave them all in the dark (no, that’s not racist) until close of voting on November 6th. We’ll call it the November surprise.

katablog.com on November 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Rasmussen has it 49/47 Romney. Leave 1% voting for “other” and the remaining breaking 2/1 for Romney, ANYONE can come up with 51/48 Romney.

Does that mean we all can get paid Rove-like dollars, too?

And 279 EV’s? We don’t have to go too far out on that tree limb before bumping into Karl.

279 is well within the “factor of cheat”. Karl has me worried now.

Carnac on November 1, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I’m worried about the voting machines that seem to want to vote for Obama even when the voters want to vote for Romney. It always reminds me of Nevada sending Reid back to the Senate and all the funny business that was going on. Same glitch in the voting machines and a loss of power at one point. Ugh. Please God, let us be done with Obama.

magicbeans on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I saw an article that said either it will be a squeaker for either candidate, or a landslide for Romney. There is no evidence of a landslide coming for Obama.

I am hoping for a landslide because I remember the Al Franken election, where they recounted and recounted and found uncounted votes in someone’s car trunk, until they could find enough votes for him to win.

If you want to do a favor for your country, get extra Romney voters to the polls, we need more of a margin than one that can be erased by clever recounts.

Fleuries on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

The most recent Marquette University polling of Wisconsin is NOT a good poll for us. They nailed the Scott recall election on the head as Scott+7.

Two weeks ago they had Obama+1. Now they have Obama+8 in a D+5 poll. Even Ryan was only Likeable+4.

Not good. Not good at all.

Carnac on November 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

There’s a question I’ve been dying to ask for a while: why do people place so much importance on this “RCP average” thingamajig?

RCP just frickin takes the bunch of whatever polls that come out that day, and average them up. There is no effort, no mystery, no magic involved. We can all do the same thing and come up with the exact same daily average.

I just don’t understand why everyone in the world has started quoting the “RCP average” as some sort of God like truth or indicator of the election.

tkyang99 on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 PM

If you homogenize and aggregate crap, it’s still crap. Guess we’ll see… I still think that greater R enthusiasm will carry the day.

FogDog on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Comment pages: 1 2