Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up …

posted at 8:41 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’re down to the final week of the election, where we’d normally expect to see pollsters fine-tuning their samples in order to get the most predictive survey results ahead of the election.  It’s refreshing, therefore, to see the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac partnership decide to buck that trend and stick with consistency.  Their polls in the most hotly contested swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all show Barack Obama edging Mitt Romney — as long as voter turnout resembles Obama’s big win in 2008:

President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

  • FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)
  • OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)
  • VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008.  First, let’s start with independents:

  • FL: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7
  • OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8
  • VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1

Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

  • FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
  • OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
  • VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11

Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap.  In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents.  In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm.  I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.


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or eat a ton of crow and take the beating I would very much deserve if I’ve been wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

And then you’ll leave, never to show yourself around here again, right?

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Obama’s going back to Vegas to campaign.

Uh-oh.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Jay-Z and Beyonce are going to give him another briefing on Bunghazi.

If the media succeeds in burying this story when I had to read about Abu Gonad 56 days in a row they need some realignment work with ballbats.

harlekwin15 on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

“Obama’s going back to Vegas to campaign.

Uh-oh.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM”

Why is that a big deal?

He’s hitting the states that could be close and help Romney win without OH (which will have to happen), which is why he’s going to WI and NV. Just smart politics…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Gumby has got to be someone just trying to yank our chains for fun…because nobody could be THAT stupid.

Bob's Kid on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Why is that a big deal?

He’s hitting the states that could be close and help Romney win without OH (which will have to happen), which is why he’s going to WI and NV. Just smart politics…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Like blaming a video protest that never happened for operation SCOAMFY Call II?

harlekwin15 on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Again, let us get this straight. No one here respects your analysis (if you can call it that). No one here respects your opinion because of the childish way that have acted since you started posting here. Obama could win Ohio by 25 points and no one would give you kudos for anything.

Your problem has always been is that you blindly follow polls and whatever flavor of the day that you think is going to hurt Romney.Time and time again you have been proven wrong, you’ve been called out on those errors and you never acknowledge them.

Why? Because you are a troll, and everyone knows it.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

“or eat a ton of crow and take the beating I would very much deserve if I’ve been wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

And then you’ll leave, never to show yourself around here again, right?

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 10:19 AM”

Absolutely. Can’t remember who I had that deal with, but I’ll live up to my end. And I’ll be paying BGibbs, too.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Why is that a big deal?

He’s hitting the states that could be close and help Romney win without OH (which will have to happen), which is why he’s going to WI and NV. Just smart politics…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Because he supposedly had that locked up with early voting.

Obviously not.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Gallup and Rasmussen have R+ turnout models.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:24 AM

CBS just went all in with trying too pull an inside straight against a possible 4 of a kind. Either way they lose, basically it is a desperate bluff.

Bluff called!

You need to remember that when polls show Obama leading, those pulls are rigged. Polls that show Romney ahead are the only accurate ones.

Christie could have been appropriately respectful without being incredibly effusive in his praise of Obama. This looks like an unspoken endorsement of the President.

You pay the consequences when your hero calls for cutting FEMA to win conservative votes and then sees the aftermath of a major hurricane. There isn’t a governor in a state hit hard by the storm hoping to see disaster funding spread out across the country, state by state, rather than keeping it concentrated at the national level to maximize its effectiveness in times of emergency. What a stupid idea.

bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

What a stupid idea.

bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Then cut back your $1.5 trillion dollar deficits so we have FEMA money.

Start with ObamaCare.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Does the enthusiasm gap really = turnout?

Anyone know what the enthusiasm gap was in 2008?

carson53 on October 31, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Ras Wednesday

R 49
O 47

bgibbs1000 on October 31, 2012 at 10:28 AM

He’s not sabotaging Mitt. He’s looking out for himself and the people of New Jersey.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Exactly. He saw how Obama ignored those other states with disasters like Texas and Kentucky and he decided to kiss Obama’s #$$. It’s what governors do who need help from the Feds.

Deanna on October 31, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

So I guess everyone that listened to the polls in 2004 were idiots too? See, that’s another one of your annoying traits, your absolutism.

One can question that veracity of a poll and not be “an idiot”. There are very legitimate concerns with the sampling methodology used in these polls. You have to ask yourself a question, why are you so adamant against addressing that? Is it because you are so narrow minded and infantile in your pursuit of “being right”?

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:30 AM

The left is seriously working on figuring out how to uncount the GOP sample next Tuesday. It’s their only hope. Call out the Black Panthers.

RSbrewer on October 31, 2012 at 10:30 AM

So as long as only Democrats show up on Election Day it should be a lock for Bammy.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

That is interesting, comparing a Gallup poll taken in May with a Reuters poll taken in October.

Next we should compare the taste of turtle meat with that of diesel fuel.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

This–THIS–is but one example of many of why Hot Aireolas (I would say “Hot Airians,” but it’s bad enough that we have to refute leftist codslappers’ accusations that we’re the New Old Schutzstaffel) come to love and appreciate Bishop, who, incidentally, is 75% more Bishop than the leading national Bishops. And that’s from Rasmussen. So there.

Bishop/Bolton 2020!

Dime IV on October 31, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I expect a bunch of these push polls to try and influence the low info types who want to vote for the perceived winner, while also attempting to suppress the Republicans and Conservatives and dispirit them.

Make sure you tell any weak-hearted, weak-minded types you run across to buck up and go vote.

This hurricane real or perceived has blunted Romney’s momentum. I don’t think it has helped Preezy AteDog at all, but I don’t like the current vibe from everything being on hold.

I don’t know if Christie’s ego was hurt by not being picked to be VP, but both from his speech and now this move of hosting Preezy AteDog, it is apparent that he is not to be trusted or considered a friend of Romney.

Rockshine on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

So I guess everyone that listened to the polls in 2004 were idiots too?

2004 speaks to the bias polls have against incumbents….

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:33 AM

And if you believe this left wing trash, see me . . . I have several large bridges to sell.

rplat on October 31, 2012 at 10:33 AM

You pay the consequences when your hero calls for cutting FEMA to win conservative votes and then sees the aftermath of a major hurricane. There isn’t a governor in a state hit hard by the storm hoping to see disaster funding spread out across the country, state by state, rather than keeping it concentrated at the national level to maximize its effectiveness in times of emergency. What a stupid idea.

bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I’ve lived through several massive hurricanes down here on the upper Texas Gulf Coast. Two of them were very destructive. I’ve seen up close how mis-managed FEMA is.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

2004 speaks to the bias polls have against incumbents….

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:33 AM

So what bias are we seeing with this poll?

Do you believe Obama will get better turnout than 2008 in FL, OH and VA?

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

.
Weren’t you the poll denier when favorable Romney polls in swing states, FL, NC, VA were reported ? Selective I say.

Don’t you realize that the fact the conversation has shifted to PA, MI or WI Indicates this is a backwards trend for your guy nationally?

And I have to correct myself- You will see at least a 5-8% Non-Racial</em> Bradley effect Nov. 7th – and yes,it won’t be for racial reasons- I meant to say – without a racial component, many people will tell the pollsters differently on the phone than they will actually vote- especially in OH and MI. You do not publicly support Romney in a blue county without the fear of intimidation or reprisal from the Democrat base. That’s just a fact of life.

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 10:36 AM

If the media succeeds in burying this story when I had to read about Abu Gonad 56 days in a row they need some realignment work with ballbats.

harlekwin15 on October 31, 2012 at 10:20 AM

This burns me up too. They were in full meltdown over some terroist have panties put on their heads. People in San Francisco pay good money to have that done to them.

Alabama Infidel on October 31, 2012 at 10:36 AM

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Delusional.

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Mason-Dixon’s polling unit pulled out of Florida, this week … said they were done, Romney wins Florida.

tarpon on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Obama’s going back to Vegas to campaign.

Uh-oh.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Yep, just like they have to campaign in MI, WI and PA, all states that should have been a lock weeks and weeks ago. Which is another reason to not pay atention to these media polls. If Obama is worried about PA, MI and WI, then OH is lost, and FL and VA are so far out of the realm of possibility it’s not even worth talking about.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

You pay the consequences when your hero calls for cutting FEMA to win conservative votes and then sees the aftermath of a major hurricane.

bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Obama’s proposed cuts to FEMA, detailed on pages 94 through 96 of the White House’s sequestration proposal, include the following (emphasis added):

* Flood Hazard Mapping and Risk Analysis Program – $8 million

* State and Local Emergency Programs (non-defense) – $183 million

* State and Local Emergency Programs (defense) – $5 million

* United States Fire Administration and Training – $4 million

* Salaries and Expenses (non-defense) – $75 million

* Salaries and Expenses (defense) – $7 million

* Disaster Relief – $580 million

* Emergency Food and Shelter – $10 million

* Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program – $3 million

* National Pre-disaster Mitigation Fund – $3 million

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

2004 speaks to the bias polls have against incumbents….

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Right, my point being is that gumby puts way too much faith in the polls. I’m not saying the election is going one way or another, just that the polls have been too wrong in the past trust them that much.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

“So I guess everyone that listened to the polls in 2004 were idiots too? See, that’s another one of your annoying traits, your absolutism.

One can question that veracity of a poll and not be “an idiot”.”

The polls in 04 were very accurate and the RCP average just about nailed the final result.

The poll-denying by Republicans started in earnest in 08, when people whined about the same bad samples, turnout expectations, etc. And even worse was when people like Ace and Hugh Hewitt purposely mislead their followers by saying McCain had a chance to win, was meeting their turnout goals on election day, etc.

This partisan spinning has reached an unhinged, fever pitch this cycle. Quinnipiac will be out of business if there OH poll is that wrong and Romney wins (same with Marist). These firms are in the business of getting hired and making money. It does them no good at all to have inaccurate results.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

You need to remember that when polls show Obama leading, those pulls are rigged. Polls that show Romney ahead are the only accurate ones.
bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Weaksuace.

No that is not what anyone is doing. Until you can rationally justify why Obama would get more support in 2012 than he did in 2008, especially given the 2010 election results and current change in party ID, which favors republicans, you cannot take a poll with a d+8 advantage in swing states seriously.

Bless you heart, it is you who is demonstrating a willful suspension of rationality regarding such silly polling data.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Obama’s going back to Vegas to campaign.

Uh-oh.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Yep, just like they have to campaign in MI, WI and PA, all states that should have been a lock weeks and weeks ago. Which is another reason to not pay atention to these media polls. If Obama is worried about PA, MI and WI, then OH is lost, and FL and VA are so far out of the realm of possibility it’s not even worth talking about.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Obama runs off to Vegas, while Clinton is left to deal with center stage in Ohio and Wisconsin… Pretty good summary of this entire administration.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:40 AM

“many people will tell the pollsters differently on the phone than they will actually vote- especially in OH and MI.”

Again, that was one of the excuses people were giving in 08 as to why Obama was ahead.

Why would you bother to take the time to answer a poll and then BS the results?

This crap is insane.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Trying to be positive, but still concerned – After all, I remember many people at this time four years ago running around saying that McCain would pull it out in the end.

Too close to call, and to be honest, I just don’t trust the American electorate enough anymore to do the right thing.

Preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best.

JFS61 on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Yeah, the picture of Little Boy and Fat Man.

ATOMIC!!!!??????

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

MARVELOUS! We can close this thread down now! We have a winner!

The War Planner on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

This partisan spinning has reached an unhinged, fever pitch this cycle. Quinnipiac will be out of business if there OH poll is that wrong and Romney wins (same with Marist). These firms are in the business of getting hired and making money. It does them no good at all to have inaccurate results.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Quinnipiac has Obama a whopping 3 points better turnout in OH, VA and FL.

Do you think that’s reasonable?

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

“Obama runs off to Vegas, while Clinton is left to deal with center stage in Ohio and Wisconsin… Pretty good summary of this entire administration.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:40 AM”

Obama’s coming to Green Bay, WI, tomorrow.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11

and in a poll, already wildly slanted to favor Obama, only Ohio shows a huge gender gap?.. the only outlier is my state, which the Obama team has decided is do or die for Romney?

uh huh…

The day Gallop started polling realistically, not surprisingly, after Axeldick THREATENED THEM… is the day I started having some faith in Gallop being at least fair again.. Rass?.. they’ve always been more accurate, protests by liberal hacks discredited after they started siting Rass after it showed a Romney drop last week. All the poll denying by the left, which our resident clown college grads never seem to notice.. is ballooning into a complete denial of reality, Obama is loosing, badly.

I have no list of polls that I find non credible, I just go by, what’s the sampling?.. if it has something as stupid as D+7 or higher… it’s meaningless, because not a soul believes Obama’s turnout will eclipse 08

no one… except for possibly the MSNBC nutjobs.

I won’t deny Gallop, or Rass.. because they don’t pad their polls with D+ numbers so outrageous, even the democrats find them unrealistic. Which happens, when those cheer leaders at NYT’s CBS decide,… “HEY GANG!… Let’s put on a POLL!” in their best Andy Hardy Mickey Rooney impression.

Romney’s momentum is still under counted by the media, but the signs are there.. The defeat Obama is headed for, is going to be so final.. so completely devastating, democrats will be born with bruises three generations out.

mark81150 on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Obama’s coming to Green Bay, WI, tomorrow.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Clinton in MN and Biden in PA.

Spin that as good news for Obama, please.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:44 AM

And yes, if Dems turn out D+8 Obama will likely win.

Unfortunately for Obama there is ZERO chance of that happening.

mitchellvii on October 31, 2012 at 10:44 AM

You pay the consequences when your hero calls for cutting FEMA to win conservative votes and then sees the aftermath of a major hurricane. There isn’t a governor in a state hit hard by the storm hoping to see disaster funding spread out across the country, state by state, rather than keeping it concentrated at the national level to maximize its effectiveness in times of emergency. What a stupid idea.

bayam on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Just because you and your comrades worship the federal government, does not mean preferring states to control such things is unpatriotic or stupid, or whatever you are trying to insinuate. It is stupid to argue that keeping it concentrated at the national level maximizes its effectiveness. When has that ever been true?

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Obama runs off to Vegas, while Clinton is left to deal with center stage in Ohio and Wisconsin…
Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Right, which tells you Ohio is lost to Obama. He can’t even take the time to go to Ohio himself because so many other states that he shouldn’t have had to worry about are imploding right now.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

nathor – and it has been closing and continues to – VA is already gone (pull PPP out of VA and recalc!)as is Ohio – which puts Mitt up – so Mitch has already won. But I do want more! Cmon lets get more states.

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I wont pull any pollster out of calc, that is what dkos does to gallup and rasmunsen. I tell you this, its going to be a nail-biter, not a wave. there are many states with a very low margin either way, and with this storm, there is even more uncontroled variables.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up …

And yet, at the bottom of the Liberal tea cup, amongst the leaves, I foresee a Romney landslide.

M240H on October 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM

“Quinnipiac has Obama a whopping 3 points better turnout in OH, VA and FL.

Do you think that’s reasonable?

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM”

Personally, no, but I’m not a professional pollster. These guys are paid to get it right.

I do think the Dem turnout in OH will be very, very strong.

But I learned my lesson in 08. I knew Obama would win, but was amazed at the thorough a** kicking that he gave. Never, ever underestimate his turnout machine.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

One can question that veracity of a poll and not be “an idiot”.”

The polls in 04 were very accurate and the RCP average just about nailed the final result.

The poll-denying by Republicans started in earnest in 08, when people whined about the same bad samples, turnout expectations, etc. And even worse was when people like Ace and Hugh Hewitt purposely mislead their followers by saying McCain had a chance to win, was meeting their turnout goals on election day, etc.

This partisan spinning has reached an unhinged, fever pitch this cycle. Quinnipiac will be out of business if there OH poll is that wrong and Romney wins (same with Marist). These firms are in the business of getting hired and making money. It does them no good at all to have inaccurate results.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

The polls went back and forth between Bush and Kerry, and eventually the exit polls showed a Kerry win, we know how that turned out.

Hell, the polls in 1980 said the race between Carter and Reagan was too close to call, and Reagan won with 400+ electoral votes.

My point being, your blind faith in poll numbers is what’s so off putting. Do you really think that Obama’s turn out is going to be the same as in 2008? If you don’t, then you have to take issue with the sampling and methodology used in these polls.

Hearing you accuse someone else of a fevered pitch is rich. That term is an apt description for your posting habits since you began your stint as the resident troll at Hot Air.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Because when the polls are against your candidate, they are obviously skewed, biased and controlled by ACORN.

Funny how you never have any problem with polls when they show Romney ahead.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Personally, no, but I’m not a professional pollster. These guys are paid to get it right.

I do think the Dem turnout in OH will be very, very strong.

But I learned my lesson in 08. I knew Obama would win, but was amazed at the thorough a** kicking that he gave. Never, ever underestimate his turnout machine.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

\

You’re not a professional anything. You post “you’re going to lose” over and over and over again without any intelligence or competence. Sometimes you’ll just happen to be right.

Walker is a great example where you were hilariously wrong. You were clearly the idiot poll denier there.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Personally, no, but I’m not a professional pollster. These guys are paid to get it right.

I do think the Dem turnout in OH will be very, very strong.

But I learned my lesson in 08. I knew Obama would win, but was amazed at the thorough a** kicking that he gave. Never, ever underestimate his turnout machine.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

What happened to the turnout machine in 2010?

weaselyone on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Funny how these facts are skewed by polls with D+6,7,8,9,10,11,12 polling with rolling averages.

For God’s sake, RCP can’t have a clear cut picture of what’s going on with all the B.S. polls clustering it up.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I don’t read into those D+ stuff. it was explained before that party affiliation is variable unlike male\female ratios. it is what it is, a toss up election.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Because when the polls are against your candidate, they are obviously skewed, biased and controlled by ACORN.

Funny how you never have any problem with polls when they show Romney ahead.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Of course, now you are just lying. The tenor I’ve seen here is , okay, that “looks” like good news, but don’t get lazy. If anything the opposite has been true, especially of you and yours.

The Projector is back at it again!

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Because when the polls are against your candidate, they are obviously skewed, biased and controlled by ACORN.

Funny how you never have any problem with polls when they show Romney ahead.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Not true at all. There are several ridiculous polls that skew Romney.

Pew had an R+3, Romney up 4 at one point. That was a good poll for Obama.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Obama’s coming to Green Bay, WI, tomorrow.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Clinton in MN and Biden in PA.

.
Your not seeing the bigger picture.
A month ago you scoffed at ANY IDEA of Romney contesting WI, PA, MI.

And look where the Dem candidates are going? You don’t think people in these states are wondering if maybe they probably need to take another look at Romney because of this new attention?
You betcha, they do. Remember also, the hardcore supporters have already voted for Hopey. This campaigning ain’t about these candidates base.

Trends are more accurate and telling than targeted polling data.

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I think you are dim-witted and gullible. Your earnestness about all this is becoming sad more than anything.

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

it is what it is, a toss up election.

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I can’t disagree there. It is a toss up, we won’t know anything concrete until after Nov 6 I’m afraid. Would I prefer a red wave that flips all of those battleground states, but you just never know what’s going to happen.

You know, Obama and Gov. Christi could hold hands and change the direction of the entire election.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

his partisan spinning has reached an unhinged, fever pitch this cycle. Quinnipiac will be out of business if there OH poll is that wrong and Romney wins (same with Marist). These firms are in the business of getting hired and making money. It does them no good at all to have inaccurate results.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Yes, ‘cuz everybody remembers how Zogby went out of business after it blew numerous races!

Hey, does anyone remember when John Zogby was a Poll God?

The Cult of Zogby: Why does the media treat this pollster like a god?

http://www.slate.com/articles/briefing/articles/2000/03/the_cult_of_zogby.html

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Of course, now you are just lying. The tenor I’ve seen here is , okay, that “looks” like good news, but don’t get lazy. If anything the opposite has been true, especially of you and yours.

*snip*

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yeah, because it was an Obama supporter who came up with “unskewedpolls.com”.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The VA polls seems like an outlier, but in Romney’s favor. 21 points ahead on independents? That’s just outlandish, especially since he wins “moderates” by such a huge margin. Since when does the person who wins moderates not also win independents? The Florida polls seems totally skewed in Obama’s favor, I think there’s no question who wins that state. The Ohio poll seems about right, if slight pro Obama, but its not skewed enough to make up for a 5% lead. Ohio may be too little too late for Romney. And the real problem for Romney in Ohio is that the bad weather may depress turn out, increasing the value of the early vote.

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I do think the Dem turnout in OH will be very, very strong.

But I learned my lesson in 08. I knew Obama would win, but was amazed at the thorough a** kicking that he gave. Never, ever underestimate his turnout machine.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

that’s what you are basing your nonsense on?

Interesting. Every major political observer has said that Romney’s GOTV machine is very strong, plus independents are behind Romney by large margins, plus GOP enthusiasm is above Dem enthusiasm.

But its all going to be overcome by Obama’s GOTV. You are really, really reaching to get around the truth of what’s going to happen.

I’m quite happy with the state of the race as it is pretty apparent that Romney is going to win – it is only a question now of by how much. Will it be close or a blow-out?

Monkeytoe on October 31, 2012 at 10:56 AM

And while Obama has to go spend time playing defense in Vegas, Romney has the luxury of being on offense in PA, WI, MI. If he has the time to spend in those states then you know the NYT polls are bogus (but then that seems redundant).

And by the way, the NY Times has admitted in the past that they put out bogus polls (like when Dukakis ran) so this notion that these pollsters have no incentive to put out inaccurate polls is idiocy. They are hired by the media to sell a story and manipulate people, and they do it election after election after election. They keep getting hired because they’re good at what they do, not because they are accurate pollsters.

eyedoc on October 31, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I can’t disagree there. It is a toss up, we won’t know anything concrete until after Nov 6 I’m afraid. Would I prefer a red wave that flips all of those battleground states, but you just never know what’s going to happen.

You know, Obama and Gov. Christi could hold hands and change the direction of the entire election.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 10:53 AM

one thing about the storm, I was looking here:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house

I was checking if coastal territories in Virginia and NC are red or blue, and as I thought, they are red, probably because although they are somewhat urban,they are more affluent and tend to concentrate republican type of voters. if these areas are devastated, it will depress republican voters in these swing stated no? does any one has a better resolution map of red\blue distribution in these areas?

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Yeah, because it was an Obama supporter who came up with “unskewedpolls.com”.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Are you saying that someone from HotAir came up with it? If not, what the hell does that have to do with anything?

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Romney is leading with Independents by TWENTY-ONE POINTS in VA but he’s supposedly trailing Obama?

This isn’t possible. This poll is a joke.

manofaiki on October 31, 2012 at 8:48 AM

If polls have margins of error of a few percent, how is it that some folks think that the correct poll is the one with Obama taking independents in a huge lead, but all of the other polls that are consistent with each other in showing Romney leading independents in a huge lead are wrong?

Someone has to be wrong. Is it Rasmussen and Gallup, or is it the media type polls? I just wonder which….

There will be riots and blood. Probably deaths as a result. The more the media tries to juice the polling and juice perception of what is really happening, the more “surprised” the country will be.

Romney will win popular vote by at least 4%, electoral college by 300+, and the media will play it as a surprise, and then all hell will break loose.

Will anyone in the media even attempt to walk back the mess that they are trying to create once the first deaths happen? Will there be anyone of any substance that even attempts to explain that they knew a week ago that it was over and they just wanted to give cover to Obama? Will Obama do the right thing and explain that their internal polling showed a couple weeks out that they were in trouble? Will he ask for calm? Will he stop the race-baiting? I doubt it.

I’m very comfortable confident that Romney will win. Every number points to it – even the funky polls after you take them apart and find where they’ve hid the truth. Obama was going to have the Gender gap. Nope. He was going to have indies. Nope. He was going to have the early vote, as if it made a difference. Nope. He was going to get Republican crossover + from Dem crossover. Nope. He was going to have voter enthusiasm. Nope.

Not one thing points to an Obama win. Everything points to a “cascade” towards Romney, and a possible landslide.

I’m very uncomfortable with what will happen after the election. And at the first sign of trouble, there should be loud calls for the culpable media to admit what they have done.

There will be real blood on the media’s hands. Will they ever admit to it?

oldroy on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

“And while Obama has to go spend time playing defense in Vegas, Romney has the luxury of being on offense in PA, WI, MI. If he has the time to spend in those states then you know the NYT polls are bogus (but then that seems redundant).”

Romney is in Florida, for goodness sake! Talk about playing defense. If he hasn’t got that locked down by now, he’s not going to win Ohio.

He’s not going to PA or MI, so he’s not on offense there. He IS trying to win WI, though.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Yeah, because it was an Obama supporter who came up with “unskewedpolls.com”.
chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Are you saying that someone from HotAir came up with it? If not, what the hell does that have to do with anything?
ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

It wasn’t Obama supporters who came up with that actual website, but it was an Obama supporter who came up with the first version of unskewed polls. His name is Nate Silver.

besser tot als rot on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

And the real problem for Romney in Ohio is that the bad weather may depress turn out, increasing the value of the early vote.

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:55 AM

What is the weather going to be next week in Ohio? Not even a blizzard will stop Romney voters, the GOTV effort there is as good, if not better than Obama’s this year.

Mitsouko on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

What are YOUR thoughts on Benghazi?

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Romney is in Florida, for goodness sake! Talk about playing defense. If he hasn’t got that locked down by now, he’s not going to win Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Florida has always been a toss up. Stop foaming at the mouth.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Are you saying that someone from HotAir came up with it?

Of course not. Don’t be silly.

If not, what the hell does that have to do with anything?

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

It speaks to the fact that unlike Democrats, for the most part, Romney supporters have consistently trashed the polls when they showed the President ahead. That criticism magically stopped after the first debate when Romney had his surge.

Now that voting is a week away and Obama maintains a steady lead in the crucial states, the cries of “bias” are back. I suspect they will reach a crescendo on election night as Romney heads to defeat.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:07 AM

And the real problem for Romney in Ohio is that the bad weather may depress turn out, increasing the value of the early vote.

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 10:55 AM

That remains to be seen. The devastation ins’t as widespread in VA. The issue there is power outages. We won’t know until after the election if it had an effect or not I guess.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I was checking if coastal territories in Virginia and NC are red or blue, and as I thought, they are red, probably because although they are somewhat urban,they are more affluent and tend to concentrate republican type of voters. if these areas are devastated, it will depress republican voters in these swing stated no? does any one has a better resolution map of red\blue distribution in these areas?

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 11:00 AM

You may want to double check your geography. The parts of coastal VA that are red are not urban. Obama won in three places, NOVA, Charlottesville, Richmond, Norfolk/Hampton roads. Norfolk, VA, Hampton roads etc have large African American populations and are coastal. The red coastal areas are small, returning only a few thousand votes, check out the 2008 map.

But it looks like Norfolk missed the worst of it.

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/state-news/2012/oct/31/tdmain01-sandy-caused-problems-for-virginia-but-co-ar-2324676/

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I suspect Q-polls is going to have a credibility problem after this election.

besser tot als rot on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

“What is the weather going to be next week in Ohio? Not even a blizzard will stop Romney voters, the GOTV effort there is as good, if not better than Obama’s this year.

Mitsouko on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM”

If Romney’s GOTV effort was “as good, if not better” than Obama’s, he would be ahead in the early voting. And, instead, Obama is kicking his a**.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

It wasn’t Obama supporters who came up with that actual website, but it was an Obama supporter who came up with the first version of unskewed polls. His name is Nate Silver.

besser tot als rot on October 31, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Here’s the difference:

Nate Silver is an actual statistician. His record for accuracy is quite good.

The yabbo who started unskewed is a partisan hack who simply cooks the numbers to suit himself and as a sop to Romney supporters.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Absolutely. Can’t remember who I had that deal with…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

…typical LIB…one month…and then…no memory!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 11:11 AM

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012

…ok!…who ^ sh!t…and didn’t flush!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 11:12 AM

And who can blame Gumby? He is only doing what absolutely everyone in the media is doing.

Take a piece of paper. Do the Ben Franklin thing – draw a line down the middle. Take any good news for Obama and put it on one side. On the other put good news for Romney.

Anything you can spin for Obama, you can find three things on the other side that refutes in a big way what you find for Obama. Polls are not perfectly accurate, but they do show trends. Results that are consistent with each other can confirm both trends and results.

The only consistent thing in the polling is that Romney is ahead and Obama is behind.

It’s over. Both campaigns know it. Will Obama do the right thing for the first time in his life and settle the country down after the riots, or will he inflame the black community into more anger?

oldroy on October 31, 2012 at 11:13 AM

It speaks to the fact that unlike Democrats, for the most part, Romney supporters have consistently trashed the polls when they showed the President ahead. That criticism magically stopped after the first debate when Romney had his surge.

Again, that’s just false. There has been charges of bias on BOTH sides. Stop claiming some kind of moral superiority here, you simply don’t have it.

Now that voting is a week away and Obama maintains a steady lead in the crucial states, the cries of “bias” are back. I suspect they will reach a crescendo on election night as Romney heads to defeat.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Questioning a Democrat turnout that rivals or exceeds those of 2008 is not a irrational. That’s a real concern.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Nate Silver is an actual statistician. His record for accuracy is quite good.

I dare you to tout Nate Silver around Derek Jeter.

Hey, Remember When The Swami Statistician, Nate Silver, Predicted That Derek Jeter Was All Washed Up?

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Romney is in Florida, for goodness sake! Talk about playing defense. If he hasn’t got that locked down by now, he’s not going to win Ohio.

He’s not going to PA or MI, so he’s not on offense there. He IS trying to win WI, though.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM

.
He’s in FL today trying to give Senate challenger Connie Mack some coattails- while Romney is up 6-8pts in the I-4 corridor- and owns Northen FL- Mack is not seeing the same level of support- and is behind. We should have been able to boot socialist Bill Nelson- but we have a similar type of Christine McDonnell situation down here with Mack, sans the withcraft – and they figure a Romney Presidency without an R senate will not be very productive. Albeit a SCOTUS pick or two.

But I would agree with you- Romney’s time would be better spent in OH-WI, just to make sure……

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 11:18 AM

If Romney’s GOTV effort was “as good, if not better” than Obama’s, he would be ahead in the early voting. And, instead, Obama is kicking his a**.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Wrong again, Gumball. Check your stats.

Mitsouko on October 31, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Here’s the difference:

Nate Silver is an actual statistician. His record for accuracy is quite good.

The yabbo who started unskewed is a partisan hack who simply cooks the numbers to suit himself and as a sop to Romney supporters.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Have another thought, clumps.

…Apparently, Nate Silver has his own way of “skewing” the polls. He appears to look at the polls available and decide which ones to put more “weighting” on in compiling his own average, as opposed to the Real Clear Politics average, and then uses the average he calculates to determine that percentages a candidate has of winning that state. He labels some polling firms as favoring Republicans, even if they over sample Democrats in their surveys, apparently because he doesn’t agree with their results. In the end the polls are gerrymandering into averages that seem to suit his agenda to make the liberal Democrats candidates apparently strong than they are….

http://www.examiner.com/article/the-far-left-turns-to-nate-silver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls

avagreen on October 31, 2012 at 11:18 AM

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 11:08 AM

the coast in Virginia is a big, but the more ocean exposed part of it seems to be republican.
take a look at Virginia beach:
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/look-sandys-damage-hampton-roads

nathor on October 31, 2012 at 11:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

How did the crow taste after Walker? Oh, wait. You don’t actually fess up. You just keep showing up with your incessant blather. Have you ever been right about anything related to electoral predictions? Or do you just have a knack for choosing the wrong side?

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 11:22 AM

avagreen on October 31, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I read that article.
Dean Chambers totally discredited himself with his gratuitous ad homs against Silver.

Try harder next time.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I do think the Dem turnout in OH will be very, very strong.

But I learned my lesson in 08. I knew Obama would win, but was amazed at the thorough a** kicking that he gave. Never, ever underestimate his turnout machine.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

that’s what you are basing your nonsense on?

Interesting. Every major political observer has said that Romney’s GOTV machine is very strong, plus independents are behind Romney by large margins, plus GOP enthusiasm is above Dem enthusiasm.

But its all going to be overcome by Obama’s GOTV. You are really, really reaching to get around the truth of what’s going to happen.

I’m quite happy with the state of the race as it is pretty apparent that Romney is going to win – it is only a question now of by how much. Will it be close or a blow-out?

Monkeytoe on October 31, 2012 at 10:56 AM

He ‘s going to win, every sign, every instinct I have says it’s not even be close.. Mitt pulling a two digit lead among independents, that every pundit ignores.. his slashing the dender gap to even numbers.. show casing Obama’s large gender gap with non black men.

The vaunted Obama turn out machine is trying.. but even they can’t hold a gun to peoples heads and force their vote..

Romney’s GOTV effort is huge, There hasn’t been a day for weeks I have not heard from his campaign… asking if I need information, asking if I need help getting to the polls…

Mitt is doing vastly better on the ground than anyone gives him credit for, and this is going to be a determining factor.. Mitt might not win Ohio, but I believe he will, and so does everyone I know, encluding the democrats in my wife’s family..

They have no faith, no enthusiasm for Obama..

and just wish the election was over to end their pain. Which is seeing a republican win… they’re blue collar democrats, and they have no love for the liberal establishment machine and it’s crooked politics..

mark81150 on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Explain……..facts, not opinions.

avagreen on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Listen up trolls, the buckeye state is going for Romney. The difference in enthusiasm is noticable everywhere. You can find all the comfort you want in these BS polls. But NO WAY is Obama getting +8 in turnout here. Explain to me how independents are favoring Romney, GOP enthusiasm is greater, GOP party indendification is up that we can be behind in my state. I’ll tell you how, you get a couple of horribly biased news organizations and polling outfits to cook up a +8 poll for the dems. I live hear and can tell you it isn’t even close. Romney by 3 or 4 and I’m being cautious. When I’m right I expect all you trolls to cry your tears over at the daily kos. I’ll send a care package of granola, dried fruit and a DVD of An inconvenient truth to you. Don’t want you jumping off the same bridge as all the MSNBC hosts.

buckeyerich on October 31, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Romney’s GOTV effort is huge,

Have you actually looked at the comparison of which campaigns have the most field offices in the key swing states? Obama outnumbers Romney in Ohio something like 3-1. The GOTV efforts of both campaigns are huge, and Obama’s may be bigger.

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Nate Silver is an actual statistician. His record for accuracy is quite good.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:11 AM

So was the girl who traveled with the wrestling team in college because she had a thing for wrestlers.

weaselyone on October 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM

OK – everyone – stop feeding the trolls.

Some “facts” from the craziness. The following are things that have trended true across a variety of polling throughout the fall/late summer:

The gender gap has been almost neutered – in essence Obama is losing women votes – the recent Ohio gap is the outlier (Women +11)

Obama is losing Indies by almost 20pts from 2008. There have been a few random polls for Obama but overall this has been Romney, Romney and more Romney. I don’t disagree a Romney +25 or something in VA sounds crazy – but a Romney +10-15 does not. It is why Suffolk quit polling the state.

Obama is losing Catholics overall and white Catholics by double digits. The HHS mandate was just plain stupid. This will be real bad for Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvannia and is probably why Minnesota is in play as it is eating into his support in the traditional working man, blue collar catholic areas of the twin cities and Duluth.

Early turnout is not going Obama’s way – the most recent Gallop news seems to be consistent with what all the SoS reports show. This has impacted most of the polling because all of them – including Ras have higher early voting numbers – in Obama’s favor – than what is happening. Nevada is the one place that the improvement may not be enough – but we will see.

Enthusiasm is pro GOP and has been throughout. And pollsters have been working on assumptions on youth voting at enthusiasm levels that no one trusts. They also have been using voting screens for LV that are by no means accurate – way too much dem bias – and if we are to believe that the voting numbers will be down as is being reoprted recently, even Ras’ screen is too loose. This all over-estimates dem strength.

We have all been all over the splits. Anybody messing with a D+5 split or over is just deliberately lying.

The fighting is going on in battleground and blue-ish states; not redish ones. And if Romney is making headfakes to overstate strength, Obama must think there is something more because he has responded – even in Detroit.

The hurricane did very little damage in the states where there are races we are watching – the awful things going on in NY and NJ in particular will just eat into Obama’s overall vote total and make Romney’s popular vote win a tad bit larger. In fact, if NJ and Conn are remotely in play – this really hurts Obama, because his voters historically are less likely to vote while Romney’s are – this could help McMahon in CT. And in VA and NC, the voters Romney needs will be more likely to show up regardless. I don’t think Sandy has much impact either way, but in voter suppression impacts they are against Obama.

In Ohio in particular, Obama was banking on building up Romney as so vile no one would vote for him. For Ohio to break against Romney while his national lead is somewhere between 3-6% would be historic. But the voting registration worked against Obama as the Acorn fraud from 2008 is cleaned up. Early voting is trending against Obama from 2008, rather significantly, and there is no indication of any ground excitment for Obama. In fact, there isn’t much ground excitement for Obama anywhere.

So – chill everyone. Could Obama still win? Yep. Does the current situation favor him? No. Where are the fights currently happening? Obama’s turf. He is playing defense. You play defense, you lose. he is losing and most likely will.

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Again, that’s just false. There has been charges of bias on BOTH sides. Stop claiming some kind of moral superiority here, you simply don’t have it.

My commas kind of messed me up. I was trying to say that Democrats for the most part have not been complaining about the polls. A few have but the vast majority have not.

Republicans, on the other hand, have been far more critical of polls…until Romney is in the lead, then the polls are gospel.

Questioning a Democrat turnout that rivals or exceeds those of 2008 is not a irrational. That’s a real concern.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Anybody can question, but when questions turn into straight up assertions of bias, skewing and cooked results without any evidence, then yes, there’s a problem.

Ok, to quote Chump Threads: “And I’m out!”

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:31 AM

If Romney’s GOTV effort was “as good, if not better” than Obama’s, he would be ahead in the early voting. And, instead, Obama is kicking his a**.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM

and Gallop has Mitt at 52% vs. 45% for the Obama ground game….

and from personal experience, Mitt’s ground game has been contacting me every day for weeks… do I need information.. Do I need help to het to the polls..

Stop going by liberal talking points.. and listen to those who live here.

You can’t turn without bumping into Mitt supporters.. and you need a lie detector to find an Obama supporter.. they aren’t exactly standing out around here in the Newark area…

mark81150 on October 31, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Have you actually looked at the comparison of which campaigns have the most field offices in the key swing states? Obama outnumbers Romney in Ohio something like 3-1. The GOTV efforts of both campaigns are huge, and Obama’s may be bigger.

libfreeordie on October 31, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Most of Obama’s field offices in Ohio are the county Democratic Party offices.

More offices doesn’t necessarily mean better. WorldCom had a bunch of offices, too.

Resist We Much on October 31, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Ed, this implies deliberate deception by a number of pollsters. Gallup does not do this stratification with his poll; he just reports out the gross averages. Thus it could be that his poll (and others like it, e.g., Rasmussen) are right and this election will not be close.

So, what happens then? Do the bogus pollsters lose their jobs? In the past the answer has been no. But there’s a new element this time — Intrade.

Nothing enhances memory like a bet. The people who were misled and lost money betting on Obama will be HOT. Unlike previous years where the news moved on and no one cared about lousy “predictions,” people will have long and bitter memories.

This could get interesting.

Pythagoras on October 31, 2012 at 11:35 AM

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

.
These are the facts which he presented. Which %’s that Chambers used were wrong?

Let’s look at Nate Silver’s analysis of the polls in some key swing states. For Colorado his polling average shows Obama leading 47.7 percent to 46.6 percent and he projects vote share to be Obama by 49.8 percent to 49.2 percent. That is very close and clearly the state, even by this data, could be won by Romney. Real Clear Politics has Colorado tied at 47.8 percent, which leaves plenty of undecided voters to easily tip the majority of the vote in Colorado to Romney. Yet Silvers give Obama a 55 percent chance of winning the state, despite the polling data shown at RCP that proves otherwise.

Iowa is rated toss-up by RCP. Obama leads by 2.3 percent in the RCP average, which is well within the margin of error of most of the polls in the average. The most recent Rasmussen survey of Iowa shows the race tied and a recent poll by Democrat-leaning PPP shows Romney leading 49 percent to 48 percent. Clearly Romney has at least as much a chance of winning Iowa as does Obama. What does Nate Silver says? He gives Obama a 71 percent chance of winning Iowa. Ridiculous.

Recent surveys by ARG and Rasmussen show Romney winning in Republican-leaning New Hampshire. Remember Republicans had lost control of the state to liberal Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but in 2010 won more than two thirds of both houses of the state legislature and both seats on Congress. Clearly the Republican voting patterns had returned with a vengeance in New Hampshire and that will be true in 2012 too. Romney will win the state. But Nate Silver gives Obama a 70 percent chance of winning New Hampshire. Which alternative reality universe is he living in?

Recent polls show Romney leading in Ohio, yet Silver gives Obama a 73 percent change of winning the state. As close as many in the media believe this election is going to be, Nate Silver goes far off the deep end and gives 72.9 percent chance of winning the election.

http://www.examiner.com/article/the-bizarre-world-of-nate-silver-s-voodoo-political-predictions

avagreen on October 31, 2012 at 11:37 AM

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