Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up …

posted at 8:41 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’re down to the final week of the election, where we’d normally expect to see pollsters fine-tuning their samples in order to get the most predictive survey results ahead of the election.  It’s refreshing, therefore, to see the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac partnership decide to buck that trend and stick with consistency.  Their polls in the most hotly contested swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all show Barack Obama edging Mitt Romney — as long as voter turnout resembles Obama’s big win in 2008:

President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

  • FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)
  • OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)
  • VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008.  First, let’s start with independents:

  • FL: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7
  • OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8
  • VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1

Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

  • FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
  • OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
  • VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11

Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap.  In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents.  In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm.  I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.


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Bloodbath on election night. Romney will win: NV, CO, IA, MI, PA, FL, OH, VA, NC, WI, MN.

nazo311 on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

CBS just went all in with trying too pull an inside straight against a possible 4 of a kind. Either way they lose, basically it is a desperate bluff.

Bluff called!

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

It would probably just be easier at this point to say “A new CBS/NYT/Q push poll came out today. If you want to read the partisan results, go here.”

BKeyser on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

this is with Obama winning Ohio, NH, Iowa and Wisconsin as well as Minn, Mich and Penn of course.

Obama isn’t going to win all of those states. Its over – just finish the race.

Zomcon JEM on October 31, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I don’t have Obama winning most of thoe states. I see PA as a tough one for Romney to pull, but if he does, it will be a long, hard night for Obama and the MSNBC crowd.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Imagine what the NBC poll will be.

O:57
R:42

D+17

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

for Obama with the hurricane bump

Hurricane bump? Hurricane bump?!! I’m actually quite surprised after his reading the teleprompter performance at FEMA how little we’ve seen of him. It seems even he is getting embarrassed at himself.
The man simply can NOT PERFORM if it’s not written down for him.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

And Scott Walker’s recall polling up until the day of was all “too close to call”. but it wasn’t.

1nolibgal on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

BTW, how about that front page pic of Obama and Christie! Nah, Christie isn’t angling for 2016…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Yeah, the picture of Little Boy and Fat Man.

ATOMIC!!!!??????

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

“Bloodbath on election night. Romney will win: NV, CO, IA, MI, PA, FL, OH, VA, NC, WI, MN.

nazo311 on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM”

NV, MI, PA and OH are all lost before the counting has even begun.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

In order for Obama to win Ohio the democrat turnout shall be more than D+5 over Republicans because Romney is winning independents by an average of 8 points in Ohio…
mnjg on October 31, 2012 at 9:13 AM

That’s exactly right. The democrats are going to lose more crossover this time from D to R compared to R to D when we had Hope and Change. That means they get there D+? subtracted right off the top and THEN you add in independents and you are talking more like D+5 not D+2. As a holder of a BS in Stat and a BS in Math I don’t bow to numbercruncher and can do this myself in my head and get a better number than that.

Conan on October 31, 2012 at 9:18 AM

This isn’t 2008 with a slick-talking cipher running on the demorat ticket, this is 4 years of disaster finally being confronted by a free people who have been ignored by their Congressional representatives.

The Dog Eating Coward is going to be sent packing, and I hope he has nightmares for the rest of his miserable life for all the lives he’s ruined.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Somebody said there was free dough to be had and Christie thought
they said doughnut. Obama held the jellyroll out like a treat to a dog and Christie jumped. You simply cannot trust Yankee GOP types
(RE: snowe etc). Christie is still reeling from being panned for his lousy speech. It’s a sad day for big fat talking tough guys when
a shrimp like Bloomie outguns you. I hope all you Christie lovers are happy. Maybe you can go to jersey and walk arm in arm with Obama
and Christie. CHRIST! What a self asorbed loser.

rik on October 31, 2012 at 9:18 AM

@NumbersMuncher: Ohio comes down to this. If turnout is under about D+3 Romney should win. If its over that Obama probably wins. Was D+5 in 08, R+5 in 04.
I agree with this.

mrscullen on October 31, 2012 at 9:05 AM

In order for Obama to win Ohio the democrat turnout shall be more than D+5 over Republicans because Romney is winning independents by an average of 8 points in Ohio…

mnjg on October 31, 2012 at 9:13 AM

And assuming a good number of Dems who showed up are not Reagan democrats.

bayview on October 31, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Slightly OT: I live in Western NY and I just saw a sign that said 2012 Obama Vs. America. I see so many more Romney/Ryan signs than Obama and now purely anti Obama signs are popping up. Another that I saw said Obama is a communist so…it just doesn’t feel like the people are with Barry this go round. And Obama supporters aren’t “up in my face” they are quiet and docile. My Mexican American neighbor has her Romney/Ryan yard sign up as well. Oh, and one more anecdote. My child’s fifth grade teacher told the class she is voting for Romney. *smiles*

magicbeans on October 31, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Nah, Christie is angling for federal dollars. And if you don’t think Obama’s petty enough to withhold those funds from a disaster area if he feels unappreciated, just come on down to the Lone Star State and ask those wildfire victims how much help they got from Dear Leader.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I’d like to believe that’s all there is to it, but there’s no way Obama is denying that money in an election season. The praise for Obama has been over-the-top, imo, especially when he’s not doing anything other than his JOB, and it’s not helpful. I don’t think it’s to deliberately undermine Romney, though…I think it’s to promote Chris Christie as he eyes his own re-election next year.

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Obama and Christie is all that the MSM will cover today. Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I thought PRAVDA was out of business! :)

cww on October 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

No, they are still around. Probably more reliable than CBS these days.

Pravda

CableDude on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

NV, MI, PA and OH are all lost before the counting has even begun.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I tell ya what, Gumby. I’ll say NV, MI, PA are in Bambi’s column, but as of right now OH was showing a 200,000 vote deficit for Obama with less than 1/3 of the total registered votes from early voting. He’s supposed to be down ONLY 240,000 from the registration change alone. If he’s that far behind this early, that doesn’t bode well.

Oh wait, I’m talking deficits to a liberal… I see I’m wasting my time here.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Hurricane bump? Hurricane bump?!! I’m actually quite surprised after his reading the teleprompter performance at FEMA how little we’ve seen of him. It seems even he is getting embarrassed at himself.
The man simply can NOT PERFORM if it’s not written down for him.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM

IMO the rat-eared wonder figured out he screwed up the minute he said that Americans don’t leave anybody behind and has been laying low as a result.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM
I’ve finally figured out who you really are: Stephanie Cutter.

dczombie on October 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

…they both have peckers?

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Obama and Christie is all that the MSM will cover today. Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

The dog has a new bone. Something new every day to fuel your troll rants.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Back in May, 56 percent believed an Obama win was likely in November, 36 percent thought Romney was likely to win, and 8 percent had no opinion, according to Gallup.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found a similar result: 53 percent of registered voters believed Obama would win, compared with 29 percent for Romney.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83085.html#ixzz2Asn4gHIw

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Not one poll is trustworthy. They all play their mathmatical tricks. There are too many people that can’t wait to get into that voting booth. They will be out in droves on Nov. 6th. It’s been 4 very long and depressing years before I could actually have my say and remove this man from office. I am not alone. No one in Congress would help. The Supreme Court wouldn’t help. We have basically been on our own and, by God, Tuesday, Nov. 6th is the day I can shout to the heavens that Barack Hussein obama will no longer terrorize this nation anymore with his un-American ideas.!

BetseyRoss on October 31, 2012 at 9:25 AM

We all know these polls are designed to keep the left motivated. While it won’t make a difference for President it could help in a few really close House and Senate races.

Wigglesworth on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Yes, how unexpected of Reuters.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

“Bloodbath on election night. Romney will win: NV, CO, IA, MI, PA, FL, OH, VA, NC, WI, MN.

nazo311 on October 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM”

NV, MI, PA and OH are all lost before the counting has even begun.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I agree Obama has lost all of them already.

OH BTW if you are actually placing credibility to a poll that literally has baked in a higher turn out rate for Obama than he received in 2008 you are either mentally challenged or hacking for Obama regardless of the facts or reality on the ground, but I think we all already know what the answer, is don’t we?

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

CBS/NYT better be damn careful how they promote this poll. They very easily could be accused off inciting riots. By publishing a known skewed poll favoring Obama, they have given a false expectation to his followers.
Should Romney win, these folks will blow-up claiming fraud on Republican’s behalf. And they will hold THIS poll result up as proof.
CBS/NYT will try some b/s and say they misjudged turnout, but the fact is they had every chance to consider this beforehand and chose not to use better numbers. In this, they are culpable.
I say hold their feet to the fire on this and ask for justification.

Jabberwock on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

That is interesting, comparing a Gallup poll taken in May with a Reuters poll taken in October.

Next we should compare the taste of turtle meat with that of diesel fuel.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I can’t wait for the BLS to release their monthly jobs poll on Friday.lol

Wigglesworth on October 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Next we should compare the taste of turtle meat with that of diesel fuel.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Uhmm… *sweating*… I vote for diesel fuel.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 AM

They very easily could be accused off inciting riots.

Jabberwock on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

You don’t think that is their intention?

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Obama and Christie is all that the MSM will cover today. Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Are you seriously this stupid? Christie is a politician. He knows he needs a crapload of federal dollars to rebuild his state after Sandy. He knows Obama is a petty schmuck who has a track record of handing out money to cronies and denying it to people who don’t scratch his back in return(the result of coming out of the corrupt Chicago machine). He also knows he has to run for reelection in 2 years and can’t afford to botch the cleanup effort. And Christie probably understands that if Romney loses this race, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the nomination in 2016 since he’s a northeastern centrist Republican and the base will never go for that after someone fitting that description blew a layup against Obama in 2012.

He’s not sabotaging Mitt. He’s looking out for himself and the people of New Jersey.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

“And Scott Walker’s recall polling up until the day of was all “too close to call”. but it wasn’t.”

Walker was clearly up in the polls (even PPP) and it was far from too close to call…

1nolibgal on October 31, 2012 at 9:17 AMPolling Data
Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

The Trolls will continue to get worse until next Tuesday night, when they will be curled up in a fetal position with a bag of Pork Rinds, a bottle of yoohoo, and a box of Kleenex, crying their eyes out watching the hosts on MSNBC committ mass seppuku.

kingsjester on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Reuters, by way of Politico.
The only way you could add more stink to this would be to have Bagdad Bob (the original) read it from the tarmac in Bagdad, or DWS read it to us topless…

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

or DWS read it to us topless…

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Please… I just ate breakfast….

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

or DWS read it to us topless…

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I really did not need that image, ol’ buddy.

I think I’m gonna hurl.

kingsjester on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Uhmm… *sweating*… I vote for diesel fuel.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 AM

It will be quick, you won’t feel a thing. Well ok it might hurt a lot but not for long, now stand still while I nock an arrow.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

The Trolls will continue to get worse until next Tuesday night, when they will be curled up in a fetal position with a bag of Pork Rinds, a bottle of yoohoo, and a box of Kleenex, crying their eyes out watching the hosts on MSNBC committ mass seppuku.

kingsjester on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

There is going to be a lot of streched extension cords in closets Nov 7th.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

kingsjester on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Yes, but HotAirLib left the keyboard – he now needs some special “alone time” with that image in his head…

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Ohio should be ashamed of itself.

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

You and Christie are working toward the same goal.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

…watching the hosts on MSNBC committ mass seppuku.

kingsjester on October 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Stop that! Too much advertising and they will make it pay-per-view.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found a similar result: 53 percent of registered voters believed Obama would win, compared with 29 percent for Romney.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83085.html#ixzz2Asn4gHIw

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Reuters/Ipsos conducts online polls and every time one goes up it gets a thread at DU and Daily Kos with a “Freeper” rallying cry. Yeah, they’re real reliable.

Now, sing Daisy for us HAL!

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Wow. Still fighting over the polling results for the Wisconsin recall election?

That’s Atomic!!!

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

You and Christie are working toward the same goal.

portlandon on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Christie’s trying to beclown himself on the internet, too?

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found a similar result: 53 percent of registered voters believed Obama would win, compared with 29 percent for Romney.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83085.html#ixzz2Asn4gHIw

Very interesting.

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I can imagine you saying that with an Arte Johnson accent.

The Reuters/Ipsos “poll” is absolutely worthless, because it’s an online survey. As such, it can never accurately reflect the opinions of a random sample of the population, because people volunteer to take it.

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

There is going to be a lot of streched extension cords in closets Nov 7th.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

oh please! even IF Rmoney wins (and he won’t) his pivot to the center and big middle finger to the Tea Party since the debates has assured me he would be more reasonable than Bush so it’s not like Bachmann or Santorum would be in power

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Yeah, but weren’t you the one saying Walker was going to lose? It’s almost as if you were stupid, or wrong. Or both.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

He’s not sabotaging Mitt. He’s looking out for himself and the people of New Jersey.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Christie also knows that if he were to appear disrespectful to the boy king that the media would have a field day trying to hang it around Romney’s neck.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Gumbo, promise us you will hang out here at HotAir election night so we can rub your nose in your ridiculous polls.

It will be fun. Promise?

BigAlSouth on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I’ve finally figured out who you really are: Stephanie Cutter.

dczombie on October 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Maybe Schultzermann. Equally deranged.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Obama and Christie is all that the MSM will cover today. Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Well duh, of course. It is all they have left.

Too bad it will all be forgotten by Friday when the hammer drops with some damning evidence re Benghazi and fraud in the green energy sector with DIRECT ties to Obama. Per Newt last night on Greta and he doesn’t mess around.

Mitsouko on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

“He’s not sabotaging Mitt. He’s looking out for himself and the people of New Jersey.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Christie also knows that if he were to appear disrespectful to the boy king that the media would have a field day trying to hang it around Romney’s neck.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM”

Christie could have been appropriately respectful without being incredibly effusive in his praise of Obama. This looks like an unspoken endorsement of the President.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Gumbo, promise us you will hang out here at HotAir election night so we can rub your nose in your ridiculous polls.

It will be fun. Promise?

BigAlSouth on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

No I really don’t think it will be fun. If Romney were to win, Gumbey would come up with some ridiculous reason for being wrong, or say that he was here all along trying to keep us in check, and that he felt that his job was done. Either way, it won’t be fun.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Stop jibbering. I’m convinced (as of Friday last week) that Obama has lost Ohio. I’ve seen enough voting data and poll data to take it to the bank. Historically, I’d say PA would go to Obama, but I don’t have enough data to back that up because all I have are the absentee vote data (and BTW, Romney’s ahead there.) I’m still calling PA for Obama until I get hard data that says otherwise.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

it’s not like Bachmann or Santorum would be in power

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Let’s see who gets appointed to the cabinet when Romney wins and you filthy commies have to deal with real leadership.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Perfect that these polls come out on Halloween…obviously a trick…

PatriotRider on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 AM

No I really don’t think it will be fun. If Romney were to win, Gumbey would come up with some ridiculous reason for being wrong, or say that he was here all along trying to keep us in check, and that he felt that his job was done. Either way, it won’t be fun.

ShadowsPawn on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Doesn’t matter. The OFA checks will dry up and Gumbey will disappear.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 AM

oh please! even IF Rmoney wins (and he won’t) his pivot to the center and big middle finger to the Tea Party since the debates has assured me he would be more reasonable than Bush so it’s not like Bachmann or Santorum would be in power

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

There, see? You’re already rationalizing a Barky defeat. You’ve taken the first step into a sane world, my son, here’s hoping you don’t fall back off the path.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I heard CBS enthusiastically reporting this on national radio this morning…

No wonder their ratings keep going down…

PatriotRider on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 AM

It is going to be so delicious to see a lot of these pollsters’ (and those who believe the polls) heads collectively explode when Romney wins next week!!!

I also think it will be closer now than ever in the NE states because of the hurricane. Dems will have a harder time getting to the polls and they will definitely have a harder time voting more than once, as they usually do. The buses that take them from one polling place to another will have difficulty getting around – if they are able to at all.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 9:51 AM

“Gumbo, promise us you will hang out here at HotAir election night so we can rub your nose in your ridiculous polls.

It will be fun. Promise?

BigAlSouth on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM”

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I think that’s a wash (excuse the pun). Dem enthusiasm was low to begin with, and as many have noticed, Rep enthusiasm is at the “crawl over broken glass” stage. So I don’t see how the flooding is affecting the vote so much.

Maybe if the election were really all that close it would matter.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Jingle jingle jingle jingle…

It is still time for you to go.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Sure, but I will be expecting my deserved kudos when I’m proven right. Just think, if Obama wins, then all the polls were right and all you poll-deniers will have been proven to be idiots.

Maybe you’ll have learned your lesson for 2016.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

AHAHAHAHAHAHA, that’s absolutely rich coming from an idiot who’s been wrong on everything.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Christie KNOWS he is sabotaging Romney.
gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I’ve read some stupid stuff from you, but this one has to be a joke, it just has to.

If Christie wanted to “sabotage” Romney he would come on TV and declare he’s voting for Obama. The guy doesn’t parse his words…

Now, if there hadn’t just been THEBIGGESTSTORMEVER in New Jersey then yeah, it would be a little weird. Christie needs to be shown that he’s not “playing politics” right now. That being said, he loves the spotlight.

happytobehere on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

These poll results don’t really make sense. They over sample democrats to put O up by a point or two? Within the margin of error? That just encourages us to vote. If we were shown to be up 5 or 6 our side might be more complacent and stay home. ( not me, I’d be there if we were up by 20)

tj4osu on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Christie could have been appropriately respectful without being incredibly effusive in his praise of Obama. This looks like an unspoken endorsement of the President.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Once again the media overplayed their hand by repeatedly playing clips of Christie ripping the boy king a new one in his RNC convention speech.

Are you really so stupid to think that people will believe that in a period of 2 months he’s suddenly become one of Obama’s cheerleaders and not just, as Doughboy said, “looking out for himself and the people of New Jersey?”

Oh, wait. I forgot who I’m talking to. Of course you are.

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

<blockquoteDBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

There, see? You’re already rationalizing a Barky defeat. You’ve taken the first step into a sane world, my son, here’s hoping you don’t fall back off the path.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I thought it was a girl. No?

I still don’t understand why the left hates Bush so much. Aside from the initial response to 9-11 and his genuine respect for the military, he wasn’t much better than a Dem on spending and growing the government. He was worse than Clinton in that respect.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Christie could have been appropriately respectful without being incredibly effusive in his praise of Obama. This looks like an unspoken endorsement of the President.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

An unspoken endorsement? Did Christie extend his kudos to Obama’s performance in handling the economy or foreign policy? I must’ve missed those comments.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 AM

The current sample numbers total several shy of 100?

tomg51 on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ohio should be ashamed of itself.

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I should have been more precise. Women in OH should be ashamed.

Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:01 AM

We all know these polls are designed to keep the left motivated. While it won’t make a difference for President it could help in a few really close House and Senate races.

Wigglesworth on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Nah. Not gonna work. They are amazingly desperate.

dogsoldier on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 AM

These poll results don’t really make sense. They over sample democrats to put O up by a point or two? Within the margin of error? That just encourages us to vote. If we were shown to be up 5 or 6 our side might be more complacent and stay home. ( not me, I’d be there if we were up by 20)

tj4osu on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Can’t cite specifics, but I believe it has been studied and complacency among those in the lead tends to be less of a factor than depressed turnout among those irretrievably down in the polls.

As such they tilt their hands here. Huge movement in FL and VA, because those don’t matter and “too close to call” is a great story, but they keep Ohio just out of reach, because they’ve been telling us for months that’s the whole ball of wax.

Slimy crap from a media entirely in the tank. And Q used to be good before they teamed up with CBS/NYT. Now they’re just another batch of pointless D+8 polls.

Gingotts on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I was trying to say that I think some of the Northeastern states may be closer or even in play due to the difficulty of getting to the polls. I agree the Dems enthusiasm was already low but this will affect their decision about getting out to vote. You know they only like to do something if it is easy.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 10:02 AM

oh please! even IF Rmoney wins (and he won’t) his pivot to the center and big middle finger to the Tea Party since the debates has assured me he would be more reasonable than Bush so it’s not like Bachmann or Santorum would be in power

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

He can only sign what is sent to him. Speaking of middle fingers, I can not wait to give Obama the middle finger next Tuesday!

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

HotAirLib on October 31, 2012

HotLips…!!!
Sing D A I S Y HAL!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I hope people see this—

A close friend told me yesterday that when she misses the routine polling calls, they’ll go straight to voice mail. Well one particular robo-poll will automatically select Obama for her every time and then ask how likely are you to vote for him on a scale of 1 to 5. We’re in SE VA. They’re the LAST people to vote for Obama. Never. I’ve asked her to send me a recording so I can forward it onto Ed and Hot Air.

conservative pilgrim on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

…your’re still drooling huh?

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

My opinion’ they are skewing the poll by calling a registered voter poll likely voter.

that answers it for me.

gerrym51 on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

He can only sign what is sent to him. Speaking of middle fingers, I can not wait to give Obama the middle finger next Tuesday!

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I have been giving it to him since ’08.

I can’t wait to give it to his supporters who drive around in their little cars with those commie bumper stickers of his. Oh, wait. I have been doing that since ’08 too.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I think that’s a wash (excuse the pun). Dem enthusiasm was low to begin with, and as many have noticed, Rep enthusiasm is at the “crawl over broken glass” stage. So I don’t see how the flooding is affecting the vote so much.

Maybe if the election were really all that close it would matter.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I would much rather get to the polling place by rowboat than to actually have to crawl over broken glass!

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Mitt Romney is back in VA tomorrow. He’s holding events in Roanoke, the Richmond area, and Virginia Beach. Most interesting to me is the rally at Integrity Windows and Doors in Roanoke. If you’ll recall, Roanoke is where the rat-eared wonder made his “you didn’t build that” speech. I’ve got to think it not a coincidence that the rally there is at a business. Then, of course, the rally in Virginia Beach will highlight the fact that Obama and Tim Kaine want to gut the military to pay for the Dems commie agenda.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

These poll results don’t really make sense. They over sample democrats to put O up by a point or two? Within the margin of error? That just encourages us to vote. If we were shown to be up 5 or 6 our side might be more complacent and stay home. ( not me, I’d be there if we were up by 20)

tj4osu on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Yep.

Which is why these polls are A-OK with me.

spinach.chin on October 31, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I have been giving it to him since ’08.

I can’t wait to give it to his supporters who drive around in their little cars with those commie bumper stickers of his. Oh, wait. I have been doing that since ’08 too.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

On TV, I mute him. In the car though…. LOL!

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

They’re the LAST people to vote for Obama. Never. I’ve asked her to send me a recording so I can forward it onto Ed and Hot Air.

conservative pilgrim on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

It will be interesting to me to see what kind of an effect Virgil Goode has on the final numbers. If Mitt Romney loses because of the handful of idiots supporting Goode, the man had better be immediately headed for the state line.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

For what it’s worth I believe the “gender gap” statistic is becoming largely meaningless- irrespective of whom it favors.

I find that statistic correlates to many of the other issues such as economics, jobs, et al. Especially in this election where they are paramount.

Many women are integrated into the labor force or are familiar enough with the families financial issues to make those challenges their priority. That makes appeals which strictly play to gender issues somewhat patronizing and demeaning.

I can find very few women who have made either abortion or contraception their top priority. Especially if they are familiar with Mr. Romney’s positions which directly contradict the scare tactics Mr. Obama is trying to use.

Marcus Traianus on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Just show up for them “kudos”. K?

BigAlSouth on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

As I said after the 3rd debate, Romney has reached his high-water mark. He will not get any closer to the President between now and next week. Why?

He’s running away from FEMA questions after one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history. He’s on the wrong side of the issue and he knows it. His fake “storm relief” campaign rally shows how craven and desperate he is.

His frantic, lying ads in Ohio not only won’t help him, they will galvanize the Obama base.

Romney is finished. The losing loser will lose on Nov. 6, and he richly (pun intended) deserves to lose.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

On TV, I mute him. In the car though…. LOL!

Night Owl on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I keep the remote in hand and change the channel ASAP if he or his banshee’s image shows up on screen. I then have to down a shot to stay sane.

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 AM

As I said after the 3rd debate, Romney has reached his high-water mark. He will not get any closer to the President between now and next week. Why?

He’s running away from FEMA questions after one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history. He’s on the wrong side of the issue and he knows it. His fake “storm relief” campaign rally shows how craven and desperate he is.

His frantic, lying ads in Ohio not only won’t help him, they will galvanize the Obama base.

Romney is finished. The losing loser will lose on Nov. 6, and he richly (pun intended) deserves to lose.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Obama’s going back to Vegas to campaign.

Uh-oh.

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Just show up for them “kudos”. K?

BigAlSouth on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM”

I’ll be here either to accept my accolades or eat a ton of crow and take the beating I would very much deserve if I’ve been wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

As I said after the 3rd debate, Romney has reached his high-water mark. He will not get any closer to the President between now and next week. Why?

He’s running away from FEMA questions after one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history. He’s on the wrong side of the issue and he knows it. His fake “storm relief” campaign rally shows how craven and desperate he is.

His frantic, lying ads in Ohio not only won’t help him, they will galvanize the Obama base.

Romney is finished. The losing loser will lose on Nov. 6, and he richly (pun intended) deserves to lose.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Ahahahahahaha, it’s trolls like these that make me rethink my thought that it will be a bit sad at how devastated the left is going to be on Tuesday. This is going to be sweet.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 10:18 AM

As I said after the 3rd debate, Romney has reached his high-water mark. He will not get any closer to the President between now and next week. Why?

He’s running away from FEMA questions after one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history. He’s on the wrong side of the issue and he knows it. His fake “storm relief” campaign rally shows how craven and desperate he is.

His frantic, lying ads in Ohio not only won’t help him, they will galvanize the Obama base.

Romney is finished. The losing loser will lose on Nov. 6, and he richly (pun intended) deserves to lose.

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Wow, a big helping of babbling Stupidity
less than a week before the Election.

Keep up the good work!

ToddPA on October 31, 2012 at 10:18 AM

chumpThreads on October 31, 2012 at 10:14 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! What a maroon!

If only we could see your head explode on Tuesday night.

Could you hook up a webcam and do live feed somewhere? Please?

Sporty1946 on October 31, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I’ll be here either to accept my accolades or eat a ton of crow and take the beating I would very much deserve if I’ve been wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

But here’s my burning question – what are you going to do after? I have never once seen you post something besides poll-trolling.

Are you going to go back to being Greg on Ace of Spades?

Chuck Schick on October 31, 2012 at 10:18 AM

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