Politico: Looks like a draw on early voting

posted at 12:51 pm on October 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Sometimes it’s worth revisiting a story just to look at the media treatment it receives.  After more than a month of media narratives about the advantage Democrats are getting in the early vote, Gallup’s poll from yesterday (analyzed by Guy in the Green Room) showed just the opposite — that Romney had a solid lead among those who have already cast ballots, and a lead among those who plan to vote on Election Day.  How did Politico report this today? By calling it a draw:

Neither candidate has an edge among early voters nationally, the Gallup survey found. One-third of Barack Obama backers plan to vote early, as do 34 percent of Romney supporters. So far, 15 percent of Obama voters have shown up at the polls, compared to 17 percent of Romney voters.

For the record, here’s the actual breakdown from Gallup’s survey of over 3300 likely voters:

The poll has a 3-point margin of error.  That puts Romney’s six-point lead at the very edge of that band, so one could possibly consider this a draw … but it’s a strange way to characterize a six-point lead in a race with much closer margins reported as actual leads.  The bigger story from this is that Romney has a six-point lead in both those who have already voted and those who plan to vote in the polls, while Obama can only work out a tie for those who want to vote early in the rapidly-disappearing time frame between the two.

Guy also notes that it’s possible that Romney’s big lead came from early voting in states where he’d win anyway, but that’s equally possible for Obama’s support, too.  The campaigns have focused on early-vote efforts in the battleground states where they matter the most, though, which tends to give the impression that the metric here is probably more focused on places like Ohio, Florida, and other battleground states.

This, by the way, is the outcome of nominating a candidate with excellent organizational skills, as well as having a party with actual resources in place for the election.  Obama won early voting by 15 points in 2008, while Republicans floundered for donations and resources.  Mitt Romney and Reince Priebus have constructed a robust organization to compete with Obama on the ground level — and the Gallup poll shows the results.  Assuming their numbers are solid, that’s a 21-point flip in the gap in early voting, a drop of nine points for Obama’s support in early voting from 2008, with Republicans usually better at getting out to the polls on Election Day.

If that’s a draw, well, I think we’ll take it.


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Obama will find a way to win, regardless of the right wing machine will of the people.

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Correction.

funkengruven on October 30, 2012 at 1:39 PM

You know that even if Gallup’s numbers hold up, even if the early voting advantage Romney has is widened by the usual Republican advantage on Election Day, some high-profile Democrat, liberal pundit or just your typical MoveOn/Kos/DU poster is going to claim that the fact that Romney won by four or more points is absolute proof that the Republicans stole the election, because the other polls (with the D+ samples) showed them Obama was a sure winner.

It doesn’t matter if Obama loses by a hair or if he loses a Carter-Reagan 40-states-to-10 landslide. If he loses, the left’s going to be saying by the end of next Tuesday that Romney cheated with the help of his evil cohorts at Diebold or wherever, and the election’s invalid.

jon1979 on October 30, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Obama will find a way to win, regardless of the right wing machine.

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Where? In his magic underwear?

Barry wants to lose. He doesn’t want this job, he hates this country, he can’t wait to leave, never to return.

Same as Michelle. You think they want to deal with the White House for four more years, when Barry could be doing a world tour of five-star resorts, making speeches at $150,000 a night?

Left wing suckers. Your idol doesn’t give a damn about you. He’s as good as gone.

NoDonkey on October 30, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Yeah right, Politico.

First of all, we all know CO went big for Obama in 2008.
We are being told that CO is blue or leaning blue in 2012.

From the CO SecState, here is Colorado’s latest breakdown of party affiliation as of 10/19/2012:

Dem 871,712
GOP 912,456
UAF 882,063

We can assume that Obama is going to get nearly zero of the GOP voters, will lose some of his own Dems, and UAF (unaffiliated) voters are breaking +20 for the GOP.

A demoralized Dem base, an excited GOP base, and independents burned out and feeling they were conned.

The legacy media is reporting GOP leads with as much accuracy and enthusiasm as they are the Benghazi Bungle. That is, not at all.

Joe Mama on October 30, 2012 at 1:42 PM

I thought the press was going to be looking for some credibility, a week out from the election? Apparently, they didn’t get the memo.

bflat879 on October 30, 2012 at 1:45 PM

akaniku, still waiting.

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Had Obama had that ‘lead’, you can bet Politico would have been throwing a party…..and the word ‘draw’ would never have passed their lips.

GarandFan on October 30, 2012 at 1:49 PM

One of my favorite Monty Python scenes.

Oby was not “doing” presidential things, only acting presidential. He is not capable of actually being presidential.

TfromV on October 30, 2012 at 1:51 PM

akaniku, still waiting.

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:45 PM

That one actually discovered his romantic love/passion for gumbey on another thread (well, assuming it is not gumbey himself hiding behind a different moniker :), so be careful who yoh conjure up there :)… You might get two for the price of one :)…

jimver on October 30, 2012 at 1:52 PM

My fear is that jerky is going to try to use Sandy for political gain. I think that is why he isn’t in OH.

Illinidiva on October 30, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Early national voting swings to Romney so far:

Gallup: 21
Politico: 15
Average: 18

Using the +18 Romney 2012 early voting rate with the 3% Obama 2008 election day voting rate

18*20% – 3*80% = 1.2 Romney margin

And we all know Obama won’t win the election day vote by 3 on election day.

Chuck Schick on October 30, 2012 at 1:55 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Weekly PPP/Daily Kos (D) poll has a tie at 49%. Romney leads independents by 6%. Obama underwater w/ 46-50 approval. Sample is D+2.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Well, I voted by mail 2 weeks ago for R/R, however I am in CA, so it will only help with the popular vote. I have seen ZERO Obama or Romney ads here at all -until yesterday. I was watching The Voice last night on NBC and saw an anti-Obama RNC ad. I just about fell off my sofa! I am in Orange County which tends to be somewhat conservative, but Obama got a lot of votes here in 2008. Curious about why RNC or Romney PACs would be doing an ad here now. Head-scratcher.

BoomerInOC on October 30, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Prognostications of the played-out Play-Doh Pundit aside, it’s going to be Mitt in a landslide.

M240H on October 30, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Great Monty Python clip/reference Ed

workingclass artist on October 30, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Bob Krumm has some info to temper the excitement a little. It’s not that this is bad news, but it’s best not to draw too many conclusions from this.

Cornfed on October 30, 2012 at 2:18 PM

A 3% margin of error isn’t reasonable based on the sample size; 3300 voters should give a margin of error of 1.7%.

But assuming it is a 3 pt margin of error, they could both have 49%…but it’s equally likely that it’s 55%-43%…

oddball on October 30, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Great Monty Python clip/reference Ed

workingclass artist on October 30, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Amen.

Obama after 1st debate: “I’ve had worse . . . ’tis but a scratch.”

LOL!!!

OneVision on October 30, 2012 at 2:31 PM

These hacks are beyond description! There has to be some repercussion for the out & out lies, told to the American Public. I know that was a naive statement, but it was meant to foster a discussion and a thought process. The fact is that the muslims have found out the key to controlling the media. They are cowards! That’s why the muslims get away with Murder on a Regular basis and the media won’t say a word against them. The difference is, the Obama Enemy media has no such fear of repercussions(Jail Time or Death), from us! Maybe it’s time they feared us more than they fear the muslims, don’t you think? I would love to see a discussion on how to get a more even playing field and what it would take to get the Ideologues, to act like responsible Americans, rather than Socialist Revolutionaries!
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 30, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Never realized that Monty Python was racist

J_Crater on October 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Must…keep…hand…from…posting….exploding Mr. Creosote link…

bandarlog on October 30, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Obama down 22 points on early voting from 2008.

He, as El Rushbo so eloquently put it, is going to fail.

tom daschle concerned on October 30, 2012 at 3:20 PM

You are missing the most important piece of this puzzle:
52% R already voted +
51% R plan to vote on election day!
= 103% Turnout!
SWEET!
Math is easy!

ConcealedKerry on October 30, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Yes he will, of course he will, he lowered the seas. He is the greatest President of a life time. We are lucky to have him. One need only look around to see his many great accomplishments. The 0 Economy™, The 0care™, The 0 Arab Spring™, just to name three. I’m sure you will feel obliged to add to this list. I’ll wait. ; )

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Well he would have closed guantanomo for one but republicans in the house stopped him.

He was planning on lowering the ocean levels to prevent this weeks hurricane damage but republcans in the house stopped him.

He had big plans for raising taxes which the average voter supported but Boehner wouldn’t gamble a single hand on America’s success.

Michelle Obama helped McDonalds figure out how to put more healthy apple slices in their kids meals.

Her organic gardening has been an inspiration to many.

The list goes on and on.

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 3:42 PM

jimver on October 30, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Apparently two equals 0. ; )

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 3:56 PM

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Bishop?

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Barry wants to lose. He doesn’t want this job, he hates this country, he can’t wait to leave, never to return.

Same as Michelle. You think they want to deal with the White House for four more years, when Barry could be doing a world tour of five-star resorts, making speeches at $150,000 a night?

Left wing suckers. Your idol doesn’t give a damn about you. He’s as good as gone.

NoDonkey on October 30, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Good points. He can continue the rest of his life extolling Libtard ideologies while he and his family live in the lap of luxury. The best of both worlds so to speak.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2012 at 3:58 PM

But “we are the ones we have been waiting for!” We need to stop waiting for ourselves and go vote early to push Dear Leader over the top. The Rethuglikkkans are obviously trying to steal the election from the people.

onetrickpony on October 30, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Good points. He can continue the rest of his life extolling Libtard ideologies while he and his family live in the lap of luxury. The best of both worlds so to speak.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2012 at 3:58 PM

No no no, you have it all wrong! There is MUCH work to be done. Michelle 2016, followed by Malia 2036 and Sasha 2044.

onetrickpony on October 30, 2012 at 4:18 PM

but, but, but, gumpy said OIHO was a “lock”

Animal60 on October 30, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Bishop?

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 3:57 PM

I listed plenty of accomplishments.

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Mr Morrissey is asinine to solely give credit to the ground game of Romney/Preibus. Rather it is the grim determination of the majority of the electorate to oust the Marxist sack of excrement from the office. Anybody But Obama.

rayra on October 30, 2012 at 6:31 PM

And I’ve little to say about the Pravda promulgated by Politico. Their ‘prism’ just remains all f’ed up.

rayra on October 30, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Voted a week ago here in SoCal. Have been encouraging everyone I know who will vote Romney to vote early. Now am praying for earthquakes to hit L.A., San Francisco, and Sacramento. That’s about the only way to flip this stupid state back to the Right where it belongs.

Freelancer on October 31, 2012 at 4:07 AM

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