Politico: Looks like a draw on early voting
posted at 12:51 pm on October 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
Sometimes it’s worth revisiting a story just to look at the media treatment it receives. After more than a month of media narratives about the advantage Democrats are getting in the early vote, Gallup’s poll from yesterday (analyzed by Guy in the Green Room) showed just the opposite — that Romney had a solid lead among those who have already cast ballots, and a lead among those who plan to vote on Election Day. How did Politico report this today? By calling it a draw:
Neither candidate has an edge among early voters nationally, the Gallup survey found. One-third of Barack Obama backers plan to vote early, as do 34 percent of Romney supporters. So far, 15 percent of Obama voters have shown up at the polls, compared to 17 percent of Romney voters.
For the record, here’s the actual breakdown from Gallup’s survey of over 3300 likely voters:
The poll has a 3-point margin of error. That puts Romney’s six-point lead at the very edge of that band, so one could possibly consider this a draw … but it’s a strange way to characterize a six-point lead in a race with much closer margins reported as actual leads. The bigger story from this is that Romney has a six-point lead in both those who have already voted and those who plan to vote in the polls, while Obama can only work out a tie for those who want to vote early in the rapidly-disappearing time frame between the two.
Guy also notes that it’s possible that Romney’s big lead came from early voting in states where he’d win anyway, but that’s equally possible for Obama’s support, too. The campaigns have focused on early-vote efforts in the battleground states where they matter the most, though, which tends to give the impression that the metric here is probably more focused on places like Ohio, Florida, and other battleground states.
This, by the way, is the outcome of nominating a candidate with excellent organizational skills, as well as having a party with actual resources in place for the election. Obama won early voting by 15 points in 2008, while Republicans floundered for donations and resources. Mitt Romney and Reince Priebus have constructed a robust organization to compete with Obama on the ground level — and the Gallup poll shows the results. Assuming their numbers are solid, that’s a 21-point flip in the gap in early voting, a drop of nine points for Obama’s support in early voting from 2008, with Republicans usually better at getting out to the polls on Election Day.
If that’s a draw, well, I think we’ll take it.
Related Posts:
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
Obama will find a way to win, regardless of the right wing machine.
akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM
When does Politico drop the charade and finally admit they’re part of the DNC?
changer1701 on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Gumby hardest hit.
ToddPA on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM
I’ll bite your legs off!!
thirteen28 on October 30, 2012 at 12:54 PM
Bill Kristol talks about early voting not going well in Florida…
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/podcast-kristol-presidential-election-one-week-out_659802.html
gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:54 PM
Well it looks like pollsters are going to be out of commission from now on because of the “storm” so we won’t be getting much more from them. I’m glad…
sandee on October 30, 2012 at 12:55 PM
Is this the same Politico that receive internal polling from Dear Leader’s campaign..? These people are our enemy.
d1carter on October 30, 2012 at 12:55 PM
rogerb on October 30, 2012 at 12:55 PM
Whatever gets ya through the night, pal.
tru2tx on October 30, 2012 at 12:55 PM
However, as the Romney campaign explained, the GOP went after the intermittent voters who were less likely to turn out on election day. The GOP knew the dependables didn’t have to be encourage to vote early, as they would show up anyway.
The Dems, on the other hand, asked their dependables to vote early. Now they have to get their intermittents to the polls.
(OK, or have someone vote in intermittent’s name. Calling up and asking if a Dem will vote is one way of doing voter fraud. If the person says no, someone else shows up, with or without fake ID, and votes in the absent voter’s name.)
Wethal on October 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM
“All signs point to an Obama victory (even when all signs point to the exact opposite)”.
Bitter Clinger on October 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM
I warned you about jumping the gun. I told you that Bush looked good at this point in Katrina. I told you that the real problems don’t surface until later.
Well, lookie here! The first problem and it’s a D’oh!
FEMA, White House send storm victims to Internet
Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM
Ahhhhhhhh!!!!!!!
portlandon on October 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM
Nobody cares.
Bitter Clinger on October 30, 2012 at 12:57 PM
It is going to be a hoot getting the results of this election when R&R wins? Can you imagine the heads that wiil be exploding by the bhopress?
L
letget on October 30, 2012 at 12:57 PM
Every time you and your sock puppet post I vote again.
NotCoach on October 30, 2012 at 12:57 PM
politico just another cog in the obama wheel…
they haven’t touched benghazi unless to defend dear leader….
cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 12:58 PM
Never realized that Monty Python was racist
J_Crater on October 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM
Politico: another media arm of the DNC spins like a top.
locomotivebreath1901 on October 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM
Ooohh….. according to Rush BO has cancelled campaign events in Ohio tomorrow, the third day in a row.
Cody1991 on October 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM
“Merely a flesh wound.” HT hawkdriver and Python.
Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM
they forgot to poll the people in FLA told their citizenship was being questioned and whether they were eligible to vote
they also forgot to poll the bags of abscentiee military voter ballots that don’t seem to show up on time
they do count the dead, furry animals and people who are bussed into Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania/Indiana/Wisconsin to vote a few times in a single day
audiotom on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM
OT: boy is the lsm giddy with christie praising obama re: sandy
you’d think they won the jackpot
cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM
I honestly think that the liberal media are in shock right now and they just need someone to hold them right now and tell them that everything is going to be okay.
DeathtotheSwiss on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM
We are all learning things we never knew before.
Bitter Clinger on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM
Rush: Gallup’s latest poll has sent shock waves through the Democrat Party
http://www.therightscoop.com/rush-gallups-latest-poll-has-sent-shock-waves-through-the-democrat-party/
Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM
If Mitt is ahead in early voting then the election is in the bank. The only way the dems win this year is if the D GOTV effort is overwhelmingly superior to the Rs. Why? – Because NO ONE loves BO anymore. Not even liberals.
THe only way the Dems win is if they drag their core constituency to the pols and hope team Romney’s GOTV is disorganized and under funded.
If Romney is ahead in early voting it means his GOTV is on par or superior to Obama’s which means this election is OVER!
BoxHead1 on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM
‘akaniku’ about to become ‘yakiniku’
DarkCurrent on October 30, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Still not seeing many Obama yard signs and bumper stickers.
Am seeing Romney everywhere… jus sayin…
patman77 on October 30, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Their problem is that they assume that of those equally split early voters, the democrats are voting for Obama . . . Politico and the other administration mouthpieces are all operating under the memes:
1) Democrats are still going to support Obama at the percentage they did in 2008, and not vote for Romney
2) Democrat turnout will be the same as 2008, both in raw numbers and in ratio to R and I turnout.
Both memes are false.
PastorJon on October 30, 2012 at 1:02 PM
GOP rout in absentee ballots in Pennsylvania
http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/
Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Politico was, is and always will be a left wing propaganda machine. As for Florida . . . Romney is ahead throughout the state and no amount of liberal whining and crying is going to change that fact.
rplat on October 30, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Yeah I just heard that too. Someone said in the headlines earlier today that if he cancels his Ohio stops, then it’s over for him there. I think he’s finally threw in the towel. I mean I just heard that the NYSE would resume trading tomorow, yet Obama isn’t going to Ohio?
MobileVideoEngineer on October 30, 2012 at 1:03 PM
The delusions of the left is incredible… They simply would not accept the fact that the welfare queens agitator is finished and he is going to lose the elections…
mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 1:03 PM
Just checked the early votes here in Colorado:
Republican 39%
Democrats 36%
Independents 25%
In 2008; Dems were way ahead in early voting.
The 2012 numbers are even better for the GOP than in 2004; when Bush carried the state with a nearly 5% margin.
Norwegian on October 30, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Weaksauce
Skwor on October 30, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Paul Ryan to campaign in Minnesota today!
SouthernGent on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM
Ah. A member of the by any means necessary crowd. You must be so proud.
stvnscott on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM
..HEY! ED! Can we have a post/thread on election day SOLELY DEVOTED to rogerb’s archival efforts? Either that or have him declared a HOT GAS NATIONAL TREASURE?
This man is a legend and a constant source of piquant joy in every thread fraught with trolls!
The War Planner on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM
My son and I voted straight Republican ticket in Texas early voting yesterday.
ATOMIC BOMB!!!!!!!!!!!!
ShadowsPawn on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM
If you’re going to try and scare us, you’re going to have to come up with someone besides Bill Kristol. He’s on your side.
BettyRuth on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM
Goebbels orgasmed in his grave, again.
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:06 PM
OT/ Leadership!
FEMA, W.H. send storm victims to Internet
FTA:
When President Barack Obama urged Americans under siege from Hurricane Sandy to stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest, he left out something pretty important — where to turn if the electricity goes out.
Despite the heightened expectation of widespread power and cable television failures, everyone from the president to local newscasters seem to expect the public to rely entirely on the Internet and their TVs for vital news and instructions.
None of the major cable or local news channels put emergency phone numbers or key radio station frequencies on their screens. The only phone-related instructions on the homepage of ready.gov is how to get monthly disaster-prep text messages. The Federal Emergency Management Agency told the public via Twitter to use texts and social media outlets to stay informed
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83024.html#ixzz2AnqMYcFh
Brilliant. Smartest Libturd EVAH!!!!!!!
Cody1991 on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM
I’m confused. A six-point lead with a 3-point MOE could possibly be considered a draw? I haven’t taken calculus in a while but by my math, the margin is anywhere from Romney +3 t Romney +9.
But who’s counting? Obviously not Politico.
BKeyser on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM
That w/b the side of magots.
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM
..ばか!
The War Planner on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM
but doesn’t he look presidential, he’s kicking mitt’s butt because mitt can’t look like he is politicizing this
-lsm
cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 1:09 PM
Regarding the absentee ballots requests in Ohio the Democrats are down in 2012 by 132,000 ballots compared to 2008, and the Republicans are up by 6,000 ballots compared to 2008… So in the “absentee ballots” alone the democrats lost 138,000 ballots…
mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 1:09 PM
FWIW, I think akaniku is doing a masterful parody of a liberal and is one of my local favorites:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/23/oh-goody-more-waste-fraud-and-abuse-from-obamas-energy-department/comment-page-1/#comment-6411502
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/23/obamas-mopey-new-fundraising-e-mail-i-dont-want-to-lose-this-election/comment-page-1/#comment-6411433
rogerb on October 30, 2012 at 1:09 PM
He sure will, you Gd Fool
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:09 PM
Lol. One of the few words I understand when I watch Japanese anime.
NotCoach on October 30, 2012 at 1:10 PM
I don’t see you using the NPR poll. Why is that?
portlandon on October 30, 2012 at 1:10 PM
Gd you and yours for all you wrote on this thread.
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:10 PM
*shaking the head*
pure awesomeness
-lsm
cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 1:10 PM
Just for you, gumby
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:11 PM
LMAO! Those are funny. Maybe he is yanking our chains.
NotCoach on October 30, 2012 at 1:12 PM
Actually, the historical evidence is that while polling is fun to follow, it has NO EFFECT WHATSOEVER ON VOTER BEHAVIOR.
Look at 1980. MSM polling showed Carter ahead then he got crushed, some polls missing on the state level by as much as 16 points!
mitchellvii on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Pollutico.
idesign on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
This may very well be the most encouraging polling data I’ve seen all cycle. If it is even close to right, Romney wins comfortably.
Dudley Smith on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Isn’t that what happened in 2005? Wow. Talk about not learning from past mistakes…. FAIL.
HomeoftheBrave on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Hubby and I did the same last Tusday here in TX.
L
letget on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
One week from today – may decency prevail.
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:13 PM
I was wondering if he was pulling our leg too.
hawkdriver on October 30, 2012 at 1:14 PM
rogerb on October 30, 2012 at 1:09 PM
I came to the same conclusion – is too perfect for a bad guy in Atlas Shrugged.
Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 1:14 PM
I read his posts in that thread and I’m starting think he’s conning us all. He’s playing at being a sycophantic Obama supporter.
NotCoach on October 30, 2012 at 1:15 PM
The right wing machine is the people of the United States. Good luck with that.
Mitsouko on October 30, 2012 at 1:15 PM
Weak. Even for you. Go home Baghdad Gumballs.
wargamer6 on October 30, 2012 at 1:16 PM
Yeah I just heard that too. Someone said in the headlines earlier today that if he cancels his Ohio stops, then it’s over for him there. I think he’s finally threw in the towel. I mean I just heard that the NYSE would resume trading tomorow, yet Obama isn’t going to Ohio?
MobileVideoEngineer on October 30, 2012 at 1:03 PM
Kasich showed his cards, basically said internal polling is looking great for Romney. They need to hold the blue states now and need a miracle. I believe Obama knows its over, he’s just going to try to save face and the dems are going to try to spin a loss into a win. Such as, Romney won Wisconsin but Obama held Michigan type deal
Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 1:16 PM
In addition, the FEMA worker doesn’t seem to understand that having “a little battery life” doesn’t guarantee internet access. Most people have modems at home. If there is no electricity, the modem doesn’t work. The computer may work on the battery for a while, but there is no internet access.
Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 1:16 PM
bargaining…they’ll have hell of time going through depression and acceptance at the same time
runner on October 30, 2012 at 1:17 PM
Mason-Dixon polling firm just said today that Florida is pretty much locked by Romney… The Suffolk polling firm said the same thing two weeks ago and they said there is no need for them to poll Florida because Romney is certain to win Florida…
Bill Kristol is the biggest bed wetters in the so called D.C conservative media, no one even come close to him… He believes every lie the liberals tell him…
mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 1:17 PM
“If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying!”
-Democrat Party Motto
portlandon on October 30, 2012 at 1:17 PM
Do it again! Do it agaiiinnn!!!! lol
kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:17 PM
A lead is a draw, black is white, up is down, we didn’t really cut 716 billion dollars from Medicare.
eyedoc on October 30, 2012 at 1:18 PM
In. The. Tank.
Mr. Arrogant on October 30, 2012 at 1:18 PM
bumper sticker on an Explorer driven by a black guy this morning, Hwy 6@ W. Bellfort…”How’s that hope and chage workin’ out for you?”, I waved and he gave me the grin.
DanMan on October 30, 2012 at 1:19 PM
Christ Christie Pole Dances for the media……
….and they respond with attention and praise.
The headline at Yahoo News.
Gov. Christie Praises President Obama
“The administration, the president, himself … have been outstanding with us so far,” Christie said.
PappyD61 on October 30, 2012 at 1:20 PM
…how are your goats doing?
…you should hook up with gummeandpokeme…there could be a bonding there!
KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 1:21 PM
“Strange women, laying in ponds and distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.”
Captain Kirock on October 30, 2012 at 1:22 PM
Im glad to see that is happening more and more frequently:)
Now, sombody please talk to the lady in the video.
“Keep Obama president yall!”
kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:23 PM
‘akaniku’ is the goat.
DarkCurrent on October 30, 2012 at 1:24 PM
If Obama loses O-I-H-O(and assuming FL and VA are gone), he can still win reelection by holding onto IA, CO, WI, NV, and NH. Extremely unlikely, but possible. I don’t see him pulling out of O-I-H-O(even privately), but at some point he may have to shift a lot of his resources to those final 5 states as a last ditch effort.
Doughboy on October 30, 2012 at 1:25 PM
From here
ChrisL on October 30, 2012 at 1:25 PM
Um..Like this isn’t about Christie in 2016.. Nosiree.
Illinidiva on October 30, 2012 at 1:25 PM
We’ll know more by this Thursday and Friday what the trend will be.
Kini on October 30, 2012 at 1:25 PM
You’re a caricature now buddy. You’re so lame the old gumby wouldn’t recognize you.
itsspideyman on October 30, 2012 at 1:26 PM
The desperation is certainly deep when a Democrat is reduced to citing a neocon to try and score a political point!
Del Dolemonte on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Yes he will, of course he will, he lowered the seas. He is the greatest President of a life time. We are lucky to have him. One need only look around to see his many great accomplishments. The 0 Economy™, The 0care™, The 0 Arab Spring™, just to name three. I’m sure you will feel obliged to add to this list. I’ll wait. ; )
Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Damn it, you’re not supposed to think about it. They said it’s a draw so it’s a draw.
eyedoc on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Good article, but one quibble. If a poll shows a 3% margin for error, that would never close a 6% gap. The margin means that the lead could be as small as 3% or as large as 9%. Sometimes it seems like the upside of the margin for error gets lost in the shuffle.
35tww on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM
THIS
cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Doughboy on October 30, 2012 at 1:25 PM
Look at him. He’s crushed. He’s “hurt”. He’s DONE.
kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:28 PM
This is for you and Bill Kristol (let him know). Mason Dixon Polling Research has pulled out of Florida.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459
ziggyville on October 30, 2012 at 1:29 PM
Take McCain’s example to heart! Delegate help with the hurricane and get back to the campaign!
Large majorities of voters sympathize with those needing help but they’re more concerned about the huge issues at stake in this election. Including the voters in those hurricane beat up area’s.
Obama has his minions hammering away with lies while he pretends to be Commander in Chief with all of the support of majority liberal media set to line up behind him.
Expect a wave of attacks.
Speakup on October 30, 2012 at 1:31 PM
OT: Has Obama authorized FEMA to pump the subways?
Will Obama kill Halloween for millions of children?
faraway on October 30, 2012 at 1:32 PM
Sorry about the sorry state of the cut and paste, but if this is right, I will have to put PA in RR’s camp. Looks like 305+ EV for Mitt this election.
Turtle317 on October 30, 2012 at 1:33 PM
…W P…when I’m busy and can only slap a comment in a few times during the day…I’m forced to go through all the threads at night…not just to go through the great links people leave here…but to look for rogerb posts…I am just always amazed!…I can’t find my nostril hole with my finger when looking for info…and that guy find everything!
KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 1:35 PM
Nursing home patients threaten to punch Mitt Romney in the gonads and burn the country down if he wins the election.
eyedoc on October 30, 2012 at 1:36 PM
Yep. Every family member I had that wound up in a nursing home in my home town were die hard dems. Government treats them well.
Turtle317 on October 30, 2012 at 1:39 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »