Obama only at 47% in … Oregon?

posted at 11:31 am on October 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier, Mark Halperin told the Morning Joe audience that Team Obama has shifted to defense along a rather long blue line, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.  Perhaps we should include Oregon in that mix.  Barack Obama won the West Coast state in a Pacific breeze four years ago, 57/41, but today can’t get above 47% with just seven days to go:

President Barack Obama holds a relatively narrow lead of six points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian. …

It shows Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Three percent of voters said they would vote for someone else and 1 percent said they would not vote in the race.

When an incumbent Democrat can’t get to 50% in a deeply blue state like Oregon, that’s a bad sign.  So too is sudden Romney enthusiasm, although it has yet to be reflected in the polls:

Democratic officials continued to express optimism that Obama would win Oregon, which hasn’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. But Republican activists said GOP voters in the state have shown a boost of enthusiasm that has energized Romney voters in recent weeks.

“We are seeing incredible enthusiasm at the grass-roots level,” said Greg Leo, executive director of the Oregon Republican Party. He said the demand for lawn signs surged around the state following Romney’s strong showing in the first debate.

Trent Lutz, executive director of the Democratic Party of Oregon, noted that “we’ve had a number of close statewide elections” that almost always wind up going to Democrats. He said he was confident that the president still retains the support of most Oregon voters and that the Obama campaign has a stronger get-out-the-vote operation in the state that will pay dividends.

The Oregonian didn’t provide a link to their data, so it’s difficult to tell how solid the sample is.  Elway Research, which conducted the poll, plays primarily in the Pacific Northwest, and doesn’t have any of the data on its own.  The poll has a five-point margin of error, which suggests a rather small sample, and a six-point lead is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Still, that 47/41 result leaves 12% of the electorate up for grabs, in a state that should be an easy win for a Democrat.  In 2008, the exit polls showed a D+9 turnout, with Obama winning 9% of Republicans, and taking independents by 23 points, 59/36.  Clearly those conditions have changed in Oregon, and an incumbent who doesn’t get to 50% with a week to go probably won’t close particularly well in the final seven days.

While we’re on the subject of polling, it looks like my earlier prediction has come true:

Gallup will suspend its daily national polling on account of the storm, and many voters in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire could be out of reach of pollsters just days before the election.

Brad Coker, managing director at Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, said polling outlets can’t get good access to voters two days before or two days after a major weather event, as voters stock up on water ahead of time, and clean up their yards in the days that follow. …

And it’s not just poll watchers that will be in the dark. The campaigns themselves spend big on internal polling to help determine where to allocate resources.

“That’s going to make it difficult to decide where candidates are going to travel,” political strategist Doug Thornell told The Hill in an interview.

For a political class and electorate that has obsessed over the polls, the drought couldn’t come at a more inopportune time.

It’s possible that the national polls could be back with two- or three-day samples by Monday, and Rasmussen usually uses one-day samples for its overall surveys, so we might see a couple of national pictures on the eve of the elections.  I’d say it’s more likely that we’ll just get a keener focus on state polling.


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You’ve lost that loving feeling Fat Elvis version

faraway on October 30, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Should we develop a Obama Election iPod list?

Mary J. Blige – I’m Goin’ Down

Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye

faraway on October 30, 2012 at 12:11 PM

ELVIS: You aint nothin but a hounddog (just cryin all the time)

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 12:18 PM

“It’s Over” by Roy Orbison
“Loser” by 3 Doors Down
“Breaking The Law” by Judas Priest
“Piggies” by The Beatles

J_Crater on October 30, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I blame Halliburton.

Mimzey on October 30, 2012 at 12:18 PM

With a shoutout to Joe Biden

Great (Cue) Balls of Fire

faraway on October 30, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Can someone please fill me in on the diff between a campaign’s internal polling and the rest of the polling outfits?

Bob's Kid on October 30, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Bruno Strozek on October 30, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Pollsters want credibility. So in the final day of the election they will generally do their best.. The polls that are the best at predicting the election will receive more attention and money the following years.

Gatekeeper on October 30, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I’ll bet this poll has a D+12 sample. Obama is not at 47%. He’s probably at 40% max.

dogsoldier on October 30, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Take a look at this poll from the WSJ on October 28, 2008:

Poll result for Oregon – Kerry 54.5% Bush 42.9%

Actual election result – Kerry 51.4% Bush 47.2%

If Zero is polling just 47% in Oregon just one week before election: Game Over

Also worth noting is that Kerry was up 4% in OH (which he of course lost) and within 2% in Tennesseee (which he lost by 15%).

Norwegian on October 30, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Gallup will suspend its daily national polling on account of the storm, and many voters in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire could be out of reach of pollsters just days before the election.

If PA and VA are nearly tied, leaving them out of national polls won’t affect the national results much, but since the hardest-hit areas are NJ and NY City, which definitely tilt Democrat, leaving THEM out of national polls might make Romney seem further ahead than he really is. New Hampshire was not affected much by Sandy, and pollsters should be able to operate normally there.

Could the storm affect the election? New Jersey and New York will probably tilt blue regardless of the storm, and the net effect of heavy rains across most of PA is hard to measure.

But most of WV, some areas of western VA and southeastern OH are getting heavy SNOW, which could suppress turnout in coal-mining areas, where Romney’s pro-energy “I like coal” message would give him in advantage, and a low turnout there could favor Obama in VA and OH.

Steve Z on October 30, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Can someone please fill me in on the diff between a campaign’s internal polling and the rest of the polling outfits?

Bob’s Kid on October 30, 2012 at 12:19 PM

One’s to report a narrative, the other won is for the truth. Guess which one’s which.

WisRich on October 30, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Tonya Harding is to blame for this.

SouthernGent on October 30, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The cockitude, do not express it.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 30, 2012 at 12:23 PM

You’ve lost that loving feeling Fat Elvis version

faraway on October 30, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Okay, the Fat Elvis video sucked but the Romney ad with the “Impending Doom Music ™” rocked.

MORE IMPENDING DOOM™ MUSIC!!!

hawkdriver on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM

I blame Michael Berry. We have a radio host in Houston that is syndicating all over the place and one of them is in Portland. Some of his best calls come from over there. They apparently have never heard parodies that ridicule the left before he showed up. I have to admit some of them even sound like regular people. They are sick of the taxes and naval gazing bureaucrats that run their lives to hear them say it.

DanMan on October 30, 2012 at 12:25 PM

“Go Away” by Gloria Estefan

J_Crater on October 30, 2012 at 12:25 PM

But most of WV, some areas of western VA and southeastern OH are getting heavy SNOW, which could suppress turnout in coal-mining areas, where Romney’s pro-energy “I like coal” message would give him in advantage, and a low turnout there could favor Obama in VA and OH.

Steve Z on October 30, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Oh My! Get those folks some snowmobiles and get them to the polls!

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 12:26 PM

So many states…so little time… which is great for Romney and bad for Obama. Oregon will go red when they call the election early for Romney on Nov. 6 since the Dems will go/stay home and the Republicans pile on the victory dance.

tims472 on October 30, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Are you crying? Are you crying? ARE YOU CRYING? There’s no crying! THERE’S NO CRYING IN POLITICS!!!

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Well since Bammy keeps talking about how Romney’s criticism of him hurts his feelings, I guess there is crying in politics.

eyedoc on October 30, 2012 at 12:26 PM

One week from today, yeahhh

Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 12:29 PM

akaniku on October 30, 2012

…how are your goats doing?

KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Using this storm as a reason to stop national polling is going to provide cover for a lot of lousy polling that’s been done.

*we don’t know, there must have been a large shift in the last week…*

trigon on October 30, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Can someone please fill me in on the diff between a campaign’s internal polling and the rest of the polling outfits?

Bob’s Kid on October 30, 2012 at 12:19 PM

A campaign’s internal polling is far more accurate than the crappy media polls we get inundated with. The media polls are faked so that they can sell newspapers and sell advertising on TV. The internal polls are so the campaigns know where they need to go, and where they need to advertise.

The campaign’s own pollsters don’t lie to their candidates like CNN, PPP, the WaPo etc. all lie to us because there’s no reason for them to do so. So when you see Romney, for example, going to Wisconsin on Friday, it means his pollsters told him he has a good chance of winning Wisconsin. When we see the Obama campaign going to Pennsylvania, it means their pollster told them you better get to PA because that state is slipping away from you.

eyedoc on October 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM

“Aint gone bump no mo with no big butt woman”
Re: Mooch

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

As a resident of the Occupied Northwest Territories and, more specifically, Little Havana on the Willamette, I can tell yall that this is entirely believable. In ’08 you could not swing a dead cat without hitting an Obama/Biden sign. Billboards were everywhere. This year is very different. I have counted maybe four or five Obama yard signs in the area around our home and maybe a few more Romney signs. I have never seen more than three Obmana signs on my daily eight mile trip into downtown. Also, there are very few Obamatards walking the streets with campaign literature. 2010 governor’s election was razor close. It is entirely possible that SFB could lose next week. Victory cigars are read and waiting.

BlueStateExpat on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

WOW! This great news. I live in the Blue part of Oregon and had given up on my state ever having any commonsense coming out of the liberal Portland and Eugene areas.

RightlySo on October 30, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Wow, this is freaky! Oregon is not exactly San Fran, but it’s close. This is a blue state, without a doubt. For Pres. Judas not to be over 50% is quite stunning! I mean let’s face it, there’s a reason it’s referred to as the “Left Coast”. Now granted, there is a Libertarian population in Or. but not in enough numbers to make that much of a difference. Specially given, my fellow Libertarians propensity to say, “Screw Both of You,Neither of you get my vote!”
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 30, 2012 at 12:37 PM

*we don’t know, there must have been a large shift in the last week…*

trigon on October 30, 2012 at 12:31 PM

*We don’t care, as long as there’s a large shift in the last week…*
;)

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 12:37 PM

In ’08 you could not swing a dead cat without hitting an Obama/Biden sign. BlueStateExpat on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

LMAO!

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 12:40 PM

What this means is that polls that have been using ridiculous Dem oversamples have been caught flat-footed and most likely won’t have a chance to release a more accurate face-saving poll with a reasonable sample just before the election. Heh…

spinach.chin on October 30, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Let there be no doubt, there is something in the water in the Wilamette Valley that affects voters ability to think rationally. If you were to look at a county breakdown of votes after the election you would see an almost entirely red state, with a blue streak starting in Portland, and ending in Eugene. Unfortunatly that blue streak pretty much controls the rest of the fairly normal, mostly conservative balance of the state. If Wilamette valley voters do not mail in their ballots, then there is a chance of the state flipping. For once in my life, I could be proud to be an Oregonian…
That said, it irritates me to no end that the bark eating hippies with no connection to reality end up giving the rest of this otherwise beautiful state such a bad name.

brn2rde on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Hit The Road Barack

22044 on October 30, 2012 at 12:54 PM

The hurrican/superstorm is the best thing that could have happened for Obama. This morning, even Chris Christie was just drooling over the “outstanding” job Obama is doing dealing with the storm.

Sandy will do more to boost Obama than millions and millions of dollars in campaign ads.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:11 AM

People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I warned you about jumping the gun. I told you that Bush looked good at this point in Katrina. I told you that the real problems don’t surface until later.

Well, lookie here! The first problem and it’s a D’oh!

FEMA, White House send storm victims to Internet

When President Barack Obama urged Americans under siege from Hurricane Sandy to stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest, he left out something pretty important — where to turn if the electricity goes out.

Despite the heightened expectation of widespread power and cable television failures, everyone from the president to local newscasters seem to expect the public to rely entirely on the Internet and their TVs for vital news and instructions.

None of the major cable or local news channels put emergency phone numbers or key radio station frequencies on their screens. The only phone-related instructions on the homepage of ready.gov is how to get monthly disaster-prep text messages. The Federal Emergency Management Agency told the public via Twitter to use texts and social media outlets to stay informed.

TV and radio are still the primary methods of getting information about Hurricane Sandy to the public, but social media are increasingly important to those efforts, FEMA chief Craig Fugate said Monday.

“With these types of storms, you get a lot of this is going to be carried out through the traditional TV and radio media,” Fugate told reporters on a conference call. “But we’re using a lot more social media, we’re using everything from Facebook to Twitter. I think there’s a higher degree of awareness that people have of the storm is coming and what the impacts are going to be.”

A call to FEMA’s news desk, however, found even they didn’t have any non-Internet information readily available beyond suggestions that people call 911 in an emergency. When asked where folks should turn for information if they have no power, a FEMA worker said, “Well, those people who have a laptop with a little battery life on it can try that way. Otherwise, you’re right.”

Such blind spots are perilous to the public, experts say.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 12:54 PM

important — where to turn if the electricity goes out.

O: Uuhh, uuh,, whatta you mean no lectricity??!! But, but, I told everybody… (lays head on the oval office desk)

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM

You guys are hopeless partisans. Do I think Oregon will go red? I’ll believe it when I see it? But would I be shocked?!?! Heck NO! Zero has been a complete disaster of a president. ANYONE can see that regardless of their political stripes.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM

ANYONE but 47%

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:04 PM

47% = exactly who Romney said they were.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Julia told me to tell you this. “Bless your little heart.”

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:06 PM

47% = exactly who Romney said they were.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Theres no truth in politics! /sarc

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM

WTH?! Whatever, Bmore. I am further from Julia than anyone… you, Bmore, will take government handouts and vote for larger godvernment wayyy before I ever would (hint: because I never would).

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Well aside from your unfounded assertions about me. Its my friend Julia. She was complimenting you on calling her,

You guys are hopeless partisans.

She felt left out.

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Most of Oregon geographically is red. Portland and the I-5 corridor determine elections here. I would love to see Oregon go Romney and I’ll do my part and vote for him, or rather I’ll be voting against Obama.

I have noticed that there are not very many yard signs around my neighborhood this time around. They were all over four years ago.

Dan_Yul on October 30, 2012 at 1:19 PM

My “unfounded assertions” about you were really more about me.

I didn’t see any Julia on the page, nor do I know your friend, so I assumed (incorrectly, evidently) that you were referring to the left’s composite “woman” named Julia.

Perhaps I shouldn’t call anyone hopeless. I am just surprised that we would be so shocked (again, not saying that it will happen, just saying that I wouldn’t be shocked) if God (or the Universe, or whatever your higher power is) allowed the scales to fall off some of the people’s eyes (even in lefty states) after we’ve been witness to such atrocious governing.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Aren’t you going to have The Final Word?

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:28 PM

There it is. The Final Word. Just to be sure, allow me.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Ha ha… Yes, I am.

Final Word on October 30, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Just do it, Oregon. Fly with your own wings. Win the day. The state is slowly changing, thanks in part to conservative Californians moving there by the thousands to get out of the wrecked Golden State.

Christien on October 30, 2012 at 1:50 PM

The low number is more an indicator that the entire nation has soured on Obama. Romney would be a fool to make a serious play for the state, I would rank Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan as FAR more likely to flip than Oregon.

The only way I could see Oregon becoming a viable “Red” state for Republicans is if the Party went in a very libertarian direction.

BradTank on October 30, 2012 at 1:52 PM

I’m telling you. Oregon is NOT enthused about Obama. Hardly any signs. Obama is playing ads here a lot. His base is not happy with him. His continuation of the Bush policies have pissed off a lot of hardcore libs.

If the I-5 corridor Liberals thin Obama isn’t worth a stamp (We do mail in ballots), Oregon could go Red.

portlandon on October 30, 2012 at 11:36 AM

You are so right! I know this is totally anecdotal, but my daughter has a very liberal neighbor who supports even the worst dems and greens. Every election year, they have signs for all of their candidates displayed by their mailbox. This year they have all of these signs, but one. Obama is missing!

In Tigard, out Scholls Ferry Rd., there was a large “vote dem” sign with smaller Obama signs all around it. They lasted for less than a week before they were torn down.

I’m not saying Romney will win here, but at least there’s a chance he will. Dems are demoralized.

kakypat on October 30, 2012 at 2:05 PM

8 percent undecided.

and “12% up for grabs” IF they are going to vote.

They don’t know Romney out there, but sometimes undecided break for the challenger?

Fleuries on October 30, 2012 at 2:06 PM

BTW, the area of which I am speaking was painted with Obama signs in ’08. My how times have changed!

kakypat on October 30, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Is this Ed preparing a “Well, at least Obama didn’t win as big this time” balm?

verbaluce on October 30, 2012 at 2:25 PM

I guess Oregon is not immune to this economy either

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 2:32 PM

kakypat on October 30, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yeah they are, and mostly because Obama didn’t go far left enough for them, IMO.

Christien on October 30, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Is this Ed preparing a “Well, at least Obama didn’t win as big this time” balm?

verbaluce on October 30, 2012 at 2:25 PM

No. You’d have to be here to understand what’s going on.

Christien on October 30, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Is this Ed preparing a “Well, at least Obama didn’t win as big this time” balm?

verbaluce on October 30, 2012 at 2:25 PM

No at all… It is more to show that the welfare queens agitator cannot get to 50% even in a very deep democrat state…

mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Choke on the polls…

Obama is going down and going down HARD!!!!

Scrumpy on October 30, 2012 at 11:33 AM

From my experiences with him, I can vouch for that!

Sincerely yours,

Larry Sinclair

honsy on October 30, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Is this Ed preparing a “Well, at least Obama didn’t win as big this time” balm?

verbaluce on October 30, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Loool :) more like if he can’t even get friggin’ Oregon, he’s toast :)…

jimver on October 30, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Obama is lucky the election is next week, if Mitt had another 3 weeks, I think California would elect Mitt…each week it gets worse for Obama.

right2bright on October 30, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Again, purely anecdotal, but last time round there were Obama stickers so many cars it was ridicules. Some cars sported 4 or 5. This year you have to keep your eyes open to spot one. There are more cars with the old 08 stickers than with new ones.

darcee on October 30, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Yeah they are, and mostly because Obama didn’t go far left enough for them, IMO.

Christien on October 30, 2012 at 2:34 PM

I’m good with that.

Whatever it takes. ;o)

kakypat on October 30, 2012 at 3:47 PM

with Obama winning 9% of Republicans

Anyway we can get a list of those names and tell them they need to switch parties?

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I’m not surprised by this. There has been a vibe of Romney having a shot since early summer. Locally here in Salem, I’ve not seen any Obama signs. In my republican voting section of town you see Romney signs or local/state candidate stuff along with the occasional state measure signs. I had a pollster show up at my door about 3 weeks ago asking about my state rep preference and sec. of state preference, along with what my #1 issue in the election was, (economy).

Hoffman research group poll from last week has Obama up 47% to 42%. The press release link has their data.

http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/HRG%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20102612.pdf

From my travels south of Eugene in the last few months, I’ve seen a grand total of two signs for Obama and they both were with bigger signs for DeFazio. I was in Portland two weeks ago and saw no Obama signs along I-5. Bumper sticker wise, I’d say its about even for Romney vs Obama stickers.

oryguncon on October 30, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Obama voters cleaning up after the storm.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/10/30/9-arrested-in-thefts-near-rockaways-amid-storm/

txdoc on October 30, 2012 at 4:02 PM

From the Hoffman link I posted:

Of those who have voted:
47% Republican Mitt Romney
47% Democrat Barack Obama
6% Neither Candidate / Refused

oryguncon on October 30, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Steve they have a week to get the snow up and they do it all the time

Aggie95 on October 30, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Most of Oregon geographically is red. Portland and the I-5 corridor determine elections here. I would love to see Oregon go Romney and I’ll do my part and vote for him, or rather I’ll be voting against Obama.

I have noticed that there are not very many yard signs around my neighborhood this time around. They were all over four years ago.

Dan_Yul on October 30, 2012 at 1:19 PM

I’m in a liberal section of liberal Portland, and there are plenty of yard signs for Dem local candidates, but nearly none for Obama. I see bumper stickers but they are all from ’08.

Of course, this is also the state that could not even turn the district of the despicable David Tiger-Suit Wu to the Repub side, electing instead a dial-tone who this time is openly campaigning on support for Obamacare and tax hikes on the rich. Frowny-face.

PortlandJon on October 30, 2012 at 4:25 PM

If Oregon goes for Romney, check the weed supply for Paraquat.

cane_loader on October 30, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Just do it, Oregon. Fly with your own wings. Win the day. The state is slowly changing, thanks in part to conservative Californians moving there by the thousands to get out of the wrecked Golden State.

Christien on October 30, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Interesting take. Never thought of that. Let it be so!

cane_loader on October 30, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Of course, this is also the state that could not even turn the district of the despicable David Tiger-Suit Wu to the Repub side, electing instead a dial-tone who this time is openly campaigning on support for Obamacare and tax hikes on the rich. Frowny-face.

PortlandJon on October 30, 2012 at 4:25 PM

I’m curious to see how Art Robinson does this time around.

I’ve been pretty discouraged about voting since I moved to Oregon in 2004. The Democrats could put a dead dog on the ballot and win here. But I go through the motions anyway. When I first moved to Oregon it was to Eugene. I avoided talking to most people because they were foaming-at-the-mouth hating George Bush and it seemed like all anyone talked about. I hated Eugene. I like Corvallis a lot better.

Dan_Yul on October 30, 2012 at 4:36 PM

We’ve heard so long about the Californian diaspora being a liberal wave, wrecking the states they move to.

Have never considered the conservative Californian diaspora.

It has to be having an effect.

A stat to check….. among the California exit numbers… what percent are liberal and what percent conservative? I have never seen a breakdown on this.

Might be more conservatives leaving than thought… thereby maybe helping their new home states.

By the way, leaving the house right now to EARLY vote for Romney at the courthouse downtown.

cane_loader on October 30, 2012 at 4:37 PM

I’m curious to see how Art Robinson does this time around.

I’ve been pretty discouraged about voting since I moved to Oregon in 2004. The Democrats could put a dead dog on the ballot and win here.

Dan_Yul on October 30, 2012 at 4:36 PM

I’ve not seen polls re: Art Robinson, but he is a strong candidate. He’s running against DeFazio, a stronger candidate than Suzanne Bonamici who beat Wu in a special election. Fingers crossed.

One problem in the past has been libertarian third-party candidates who drag votes away from Repubs. And moderate republicans whose argument is same as Democrat, just less of it.

PortlandJon on October 30, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Obama voters cleaning up after the storm.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/10/30/9-arrested-in-thefts-near-rockaways-amid-storm/

txdoc on October 30, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Hahahahahahaha! I just blew milk through my nose!

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Nearly two thirds of Romney supporters have considered moving out of the state of California, in contrast, nearly two thirds of Obama voters have not.

Maybe they will move to Oregon? :)

kcd on October 30, 2012 at 4:57 PM

After 23 years, I better not find out that I voted for obama!

Lanceman on October 30, 2012 at 4:58 PM

The undecideds know what they got and it ain’t good. They’ll go Romney. Romney wins.

CW on October 30, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The morning after headlines next Wed will read “Sandy is the girl who saved Obama”. And that is my prediction in a nutshell. Obama will win 50-49% nationally, and win most of the battleground states. Here’s why … enough independents will shift their preference to Obama based on the very positive optics Hurricane Sandy gives him, including tomorrow’s visit to New Jersey where, no doubt, he’ll strive for a GW Bush “blowhorn 911″ moment, and with a republican governor. Indies will eat this up … they’ll love the bipartisanship, and the seeming connection Obama makes with those who are suffering. The past few weeks have heartened me because so many indies were falling into the Romney camp. Some will remain there, but enough will switch their votes to Obama to make a meaningful difference in a close election. Sandy also froze this election when Romney needed to make a strong final argument. Now its all about how “presidential” Obama is, and how he’s leading the nation during a nasty natural catastrophe. I’ll give Romney credit for conducting a great campaign this past month. He’s done everything possible to make a superb comeback, but as I stated months ago there are too many people who depend on government programs and handouts, and who don’t have a stake in paying federal income tax which feeds into the huge big government, FEMA money hose used for hurricane victims. The 47% Romney comment was actually pretty accurate when looking at the big picture. Obama wins next Tuesday, instantly becoming lame duck with government paralysis guaranteed. In addition, the Libya scandal will dog him for months, even if the media doesn’t wish to admit this now. Our country is in deep trouble and it won’t get any better next week! Sorry for the dour tone, and I HOPE I’m wrong.

shinybreit on October 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

New SurveyUSA Ohio poll has Obama up 3, 48-45. Romney up 11 (!) w/ independents. Sample is D+6 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010).

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Now I am officially jealous! Oregon is more conservative than WA! No!!!!! I will not believe it!!!!! Well we still don’t have income tax. And we can go there to save sales tax. (They have not sales tax). Of course when they shop here they dont’ have to pay sales tax and we do. :(

petunia on October 30, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Take a look at this poll from the WSJ on October 28, 2008:

Poll result for Oregon – Kerry 54.5% Bush 42.9%

Actual election result – Kerry 51.4% Bush 47.2%

If Zero is polling just 47% in Oregon just one week before election: Game Over

Also worth noting is that Kerry was up 4% in OH (which he of course lost) and within 2% in Tennesseee (which he lost by 15%).

Norwegian on October 30, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Yeah, but that 47% is before Multnohma County “normalizes” the returns at the last minute. People around here may not be enthusiastic about Obama but they will vote the same way we do: the lesser of two evils. I’m voting for Romney because he’s the ONLY viable alternative to Obama. And for plenty of folks around here Republican = Nazi so they’ll give it to Obama just because he’s not a Republican. I expect a larger turn out for 3rd party candidates as a protest vote because everyone knows Oregon is going blue anyways, but I don’t expect those 3rd party votes to strip Obama of Oregon’s electors. There are too many Oregonians from somewhere else in the valley to allow that to happen.

But I’ll tell you this much: if Romney does take Oregon the local media is going to go nuts. There will be accusations of voter fraud, people fearing for their lives because their government money is in jeopardy and reports of fire and brimstone falling from the skies- you know, like they do every time a Republican wins an election.

Browncoatone on October 30, 2012 at 7:35 PM

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