Labor Dep’t: On second thought, looks like we might have that jobs report ready on Friday after all

posted at 8:54 pm on October 30, 2012 by Allahpundit

Sandy did hit D.C. but only with a glancing blow, so the prospect of BLS statisticians being stranded at home in the suburbs has faded along with the storm. Even if they were getting hammered, though, if you worked for BLS, wouldn’t you move heaven and earth to make sure this report came out according to its regular schedule? If they delayed what turned out to be a bad report and Obama won the election in the interim, they’d have half the country suspicious of their motives unto eternity. As would also be the case, needless to say, if the incumbent were a Republican and staring down the barrel of a jobless rate stuck near eight percent.

Crisis (probably) averted:

A Labor Department official tells CBS News correspondent Bob Fuss there should be no delay in the release of the monthly employment report. It’s expected to be released this Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET…

There had been some speculation the report would be delayed as a result of Superstorm Sandy. Preparation for the jobs report typically ramps up in the week of the release. The federal government was closed Monday and Tuesday due to the storm.

On Monday the Labor Department had issued a statement saying, “It is our intention that Friday will be business as usual regarding the October Employment Situation report.”

ABC and Bloomberg were hearing the same thing earlier this afternoon, with former Obama advisor Austan Goolsbee telling the latter that he expected BLS would crunch the numbers at their satellite offices outside D.C. if need be rather than delay the report. Bloomberg makes a fair point in arguing separately that it’s silly for people to put so much stock in a measurement that tells us so little about what’s really going on in the economy (a point HA readers understand only too well), but there are lots of silly things that affect people’s votes and most of them are far sillier than this. Rest assured, The One was careful to affect his most serious “serious face” while being briefed on Sandy for the benefit of the White House photographer snapping pictures in the Situation Room. Looking “presidential” in a crisis can tip votes, and that’s how you look presidential. Little late in the game now to be grumbling about the merits of the BLS numbers.

Mickey Kaus makes a fair point too. If this was all a matter of the White House and the BLS playing with the numbers to help O out, there’s obviously something more potent they could (but won’t) do than simply shelving the final jobs report:

I’m assuming the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October employment statistics on schedule. The paranoia that would accompany a delay (this close to the election) would be too destructive, even if the delay was justifiable. But if the Obama administration were really playing politics with the numbers in the way the paranoids fear, do you think it would merely delay the release of the numbers? Not cunning enough!

The obvious Machiavellian four-step would be 1) delay the release of the numbers 2) wait for the Romney camp to get caught up in the paranoia and publicly demand that the administration release the numbers 3) at the moment of maximum dramatic tension, release the numbers! 4) Have the numbers be unexpectedly good. … There is precedent for this maneuver. …

Exit question: How far would the current rate of 7.8 percent have to move on Friday to really impact the election? My sense of low-information voters is that they’re almost entirely tuned out to the actual numbers, and may even be tuned out to good/bad trends in the numbers unless the trend is sharp enough to lend an air of celebration or dread, as the case may be, to news stories about it. That’s what they’re reacting to I think — the tone of the coverage as a portent of how the economy more broadly is doing, not the actual facts being reported about the data. My question is, what sort of movement in Friday’s would cause the media to celebrate/despair? A one-tenth percent drop or increase? Two-tenths? And yes, it’s perfectly fine to wonder if the bar for grim reports has risen now that we’re on the eve of an election.


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Fresh from the oven!

forest on October 30, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Fresh from the oven!

forest on October 30, 2012 at 8:55 PM

But it’s not enough to save his buns.

MelonCollie on October 30, 2012 at 8:57 PM

The report was found behind a stack of old Whitewater documents sitting in a broom closet.

Bishop on October 30, 2012 at 8:57 PM

It doesn’t make any difference what the number is because the MSM is going to spin it as good for Obama anyway. Either they won’t report it at all, if it’s bad, or if it stays the same they will report that the economy is turning around because unemployment has been below 8% for 2 months.

The only way the number would really affect the election would be if it went back up to 8.1% and they said that was because California was left out of the last one.

bflat879 on October 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

my guess is it drops to 4% because Sandy removed the entire NE united states from the job pool

bannor on October 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Tomorrow’s report will tell us that
unemployment is only 4.8%
and
gas is $ 1.87 /gal …

burrata on October 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

How far would the current rate of 7.8 percent have to move on Friday to really impact the election?

It would have to drop to 7.5

It’s a rounding number that sticks in the mind, and could have the impact of the Denver debate on Romney, as in “I’ve got nothin” to refute.

Not even a 7.6 would hold attention. I

budfox on October 30, 2012 at 9:00 PM

If it goes to 8% or higher, the media has to report it as bad news.

That will cause some votes to shift, even if only a few. If you believe this will be a close race, then that matters.

Nessuno on October 30, 2012 at 9:00 PM

If numbers are bad, it won’t matter. The MSM will spin them as good and low info dunces don’t care anyhow. They are not looking for work, just the check from Obama. If numbers are good, MSM will talk about how great Obama is doing 24/7 until the polls close on Tues.

they lie on October 30, 2012 at 9:01 PM

# of people gainfully employed in Jan 09…# employed Oct 12….the only # that matters…142 million for both is the correct answer that needs to be shared…this admin has created ZERO jobs…

hillsoftx on October 30, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Exit question: How far would the current rate of 7.8 percent have to move on Friday to really impact the election?

Does it matter? The real unemployment rate is somewhere north of 15%, claiming it’s 7.0 isn’t really going have much impact since only the dummycrats believe that it’s currently at 7.8%.

SWalker on October 30, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I thought the hurricane winds returned.

Then I opened my window and heard, “NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!” coming for the south.

Ben Hur on October 30, 2012 at 9:02 PM

We can safely assume that this turkey will be fully cooked on Friday.

Core temperature, 7.5 degrees.

gummeandpokeme will skip the Folsom Street Parade to be here and tell us how Barfy is winning.

NapaConservative on October 30, 2012 at 9:03 PM

It will improve as there are 4 Americans in Libya that are no longer looking for work.

hillsoftx on October 30, 2012 at 9:03 PM

If the number goes down it means that every unemployed person either has a job and they don’t realize it, or the person doesn’t actually exist. It won’t move the needle, Bark is on his way back to Choomville.

Bishop on October 30, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Since the election is close, it might not take much to impact it. Up to 8.0 or down to 7.7.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

So the Labor Dept can still do their job after a tragedy..

Hmmmmm

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Which states won’t report though? You know they’re not going to be the real numbers.

KMC1 on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Obama will move heaven and earth to ensure the number doesn’t jump back to 8 percent.

Seems to me this is the threshold number to tip heavily to Romney in the final weekend.

matthew8787 on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

I’m starting to take offense at this Superstorm moniker.
I am thinking that’s a Katrina kind of thing.

seesalrun2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Atomic!

JPeterman on October 30, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Whatever the results, they will be “unexpectedly”.

JoeHanson on October 30, 2012 at 9:06 PM

The DC area was closed for two days over wind and rain.
I mean, I’m not complaining — I got to drive to work on the beltway at the speed limit (instead of 10 mph) and park for free (instead of $6 a day), when I would usually have to take an hour long bus ride.
When I lived in California, we never went through any hurricanes, but I’ve slept through worse storms than this.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2012 at 9:06 PM

It just hit me.

The Denver Debate was on a Wednesday. The assumption was Obama had gotten the BLS numbers Tuesday or that morning and was shell-shocked. But it was 7.8

Looking at the Obama camp responses, I think they’re bluffing and it’s coming in at 7.6

It’s the only thing I can think of that could make Obama confident enough to bail on his Ohio appearances tomorrow, and probably push them until the weekend.

budfox on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I shall believe it when I see it with my own eyes.

Until then — the fix is still in as far as I am concerned.

FlatFoot on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Atomic!

JPeterman on October 30, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Gumby isn’t up with the times..

Solar!

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

The BLS can only avoid serious suspicions about October (valid) by releasing November ON TIME and they knwo that now that they floated their trial ballon about holding the number.

These guys figured out that the political backlash coming their way isn’t good if a new administration that could clean their house.

A President Rmney isn’t going to to tolerate a BLS that cooks the books for liberals. Carrer bureaucrats better CYA and get that report out because they could be getting a new BOSS!

Conan on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Potemkin employment report on Friday?

Wouldn’t surprise me. They will do what they think will work.

iurockhead on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Romney camp should start pre-spin to suggest that any good movement in the numbers is an indicator that employers believe that Romney will win, and have begun to get back to investing in their businesses.

keving on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

So BLS is telling us the numbers will be good for Obama. Report gets delayed only if it would be bad for the President. It will be bittersweet if the President is re-elected but in exchange we get the very first headline that the unemployment rate unexpectedly went down.

An Objectivist on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

It will be back up to 8% due to the impact of Sandy shutting down business on the east coast /

iceman1960 on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Romney camp should start pre-spin to suggest that any good movement in the numbers is an indicator that employers believe that Romney will win, and have begun to get back to investing in their businesses.

keving on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

100% Agreement.

budfox on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

This government report has bigger implications even than the frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) report in “Trading Places.”

Maybe their printer ran out of red toner.

Get the damn thing out!

VastRightWingConspirator on October 30, 2012 at 9:08 PM

YES!!!1

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

And those low info voters aka liberals haven’t a clue that there are nearly 4 million less people working than when Bush left office.

CW on October 30, 2012 at 8:58 PM

What is the Leftist spin on that graph, other than “Bush’s fault?” I am serious….

visions on October 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

I think it’s going up. They shot their wad so to speak with the last report.

gophergirl on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Our Navy Seals were focused like a laser on a job..
Literally..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Of course I’m suspicious. It should go up because last months was so fake with the household numbers. That being said there is no way obama would allow these to be released if they didn’t go down, falsely of course…

sandee on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

Hey if they’re going to go for it why not just announce we have full employment and the GDP has been revised upward to 14.9%?

PappyD61 on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I think it’s going up. They shot their wad so to speak with the last report.

gophergirl on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Very Clintonique..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:11 PM

the numbers have been skewed since day one of this Administration.

America aches.

November 7th we know where we are.

I wish Romney would start mentioning his Cabinet.

seesalrun2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:12 PM

Very Clintonique..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:11 PM

WOW I must be tired I didn’t even catch that.

gophergirl on October 30, 2012 at 9:12 PM

“Labor Dep’t: On second thought, looks like we might have that jobs report ready on Friday after all”

Yeah, it took us a while to figure out how to cook the numbers to favor Obama……

Opposite Day on October 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM

The problem is, the jobs numbers for last month may not include the numbers from the Atlantic/East coast due to the hurricane. And, it’s that area, in particular, that has higher unemployment than the rest of the country, hence the BLS’s rush to get the numbers out.

Last month, as we know, the unemployment numbers were understated because the official in charge of same in California (an Obama contributor), didn’t get the CA numbers in on time.

My guess: If we get numbers on Friday, they’ll be favorable to Obama primarily because of some failures to report. If we don’t get numbers, then they hurt Obama and won’t be seen until after the election.

Whatever happens, expect the CorruptMedia to cover Obama’s ass. They’re at DefCon 5, or what I call Dan Rather Mode.

TXUS on October 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM

WOW I must be tired I didn’t even catch that.

gophergirl on October 30, 2012 at 9:12 PM

:)

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Nah 7.5 will be the number with some state not reporting or a lot of job people falling out of the market.

If it goes up the media spins as the economy coming back because people are looking for work again

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Fresh from the oven!

forest on October 30, 2012 at 8:55 PM
But it’s not enough to save his buns.

MelonCollie on October 30, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Because they set it to 500 degrees.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Or they could just blame it on a Youtube video…nah, who would do something stupid like that!

d1carter on October 30, 2012 at 9:15 PM

If this was all a matter of the White House and the BLS playing with the numbers to help O out…

Never thought there was an active conspiracy to generate a good number the lat time around.

More a matter of stopping the analysis after getting a number that looks good, can be somewhat defended — “we didn’t do anything different to generate this number” — but that also doesn’t make sense — “no need to look into this any further”.

Most analysts, especially in the private sector, take a good hard second look when they generate a number that looks too good — better than expected — and that is based on an underlying anomaly. It’s a judgement call. In the private sector your job as an analyst could be at stake. In the government, not so much.

There is a lot of gray area and cumulative judgement calls made in generating such statistics. And there’s a phenomena called confirmation bias.

farsighted on October 30, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Whatever it is..

I want the foul mother grandma to state it on Friday..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:15 PM

A government agency is going to tell the truth? Really?

If the labor dept was honest and concerned with providing the public (they are public servants after all) with the truth, in context, they would eagerly point out the numbers game that they partake in.

If it was not good news for Obama, he would not let it out. Period.

Mimzey on October 30, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Exit question: How far would the current rate of 7.8 percent have to move on Friday to really impact the election?

Don’t worry; the establishment survey has been cooked to a crisp.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Foul mother????

Foul mouth..

Jeeze..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

The number doesn’t mean a thing as long as people aren’t seeing it in their own lives.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Any drop will be trumpeted by the MSM as proof we’re on the right track or whatever, and that obviously helps O.

changer1701 on October 30, 2012 at 9:17 PM

The number doesn’t mean a thing as long as people aren’t seeing it in their own lives.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

It could be “texted” to them on their ObamaPhone..
no?

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:17 PM

It’s the only thing I can think of that could make Obama confident enough to bail on his Ohio appearances tomorrow, and probably push them until the weekend.

budfox on October 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Confident, no their internals tell them what we already know.

I took the 6th as a vacation day and volunteered with both parties to drive to the polls.

GOTV

seesalrun2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Don’t they have to release a revised jobs report from the last month that left out California? What is the revised (“accuarte”) number?

Firefly_76 on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

The problem is, the jobs numbers for last month may not include the numbers from the Atlantic/East coast due to the hurricane. And, it’s that area, in particular, that has higher unemployment than the rest of the country, hence the BLS’s rush to get the numbers out….

TXUS on October 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Sandy won’t affect the jobs report because the surveys were taken mid-month. Even the jobless claims that should be out on Thursday won’t include the effects of Sandy as the reporting week ended this past Saturday.

Steve Eggleston on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

…of course it will be good news…until they correct it next week wednesday or thursday…oh wait!

KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Which means to me it won’t be a complete disaster. Want to bet it ISN’T over 8% (to be adjusted later)?

michaelo on October 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I think it’s going up. They shot their wad so to speak with the last report.

gophergirl on October 30, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I’d agree, but every time I think things can’t get more absurd and corrupt, they do.

I guess I’m one of Kaus’s “paranoids”. A kook who questions things that everyone knows to be true. Unquestionable truths like the fact that reconciliation can only used on budget bills and SCOTUS never ever leaks and cannot be lobbied or intimidated.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Correct number: 8.2%
Reported number: 7.6%

22044 on October 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Don’t they have to release a revised jobs report from the last month that left out California? What is the revised (“accuarte”) number?

Firefly_76 on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Shut up, that’s what… o_O

SWalker on October 30, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Which states will be left out this time? New York and New Jersey? That’s just too easy.

slickwillie2001 on October 30, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Will California being playing this month?

Cindy Munford on October 30, 2012 at 9:20 PM

o/t

“Dont know if you’ve heard, but ‘Don’t Ask-Don’t Tell’ is back. It’s Obama’s new policy on Benghazi–Don’t Ask me and I won’t tell you.”

- Jay Leno

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Don’t they have to release a revised jobs report from the last month that left out California? What is the revised (“accuarte”) number?

Firefly_76 on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

…anybody here… hear?

KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:21 PM

This report is only targeted for those that are undecided…

I don’t think that group is strong today..or Friday..

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Don’t they have to release a revised jobs report from the last month that left out California?

Firefly_76 on October 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

IIRC, that was a weekly report on new unemployment claims, not the monthly jobs report. The next week’s report had a big jump (because it included the California numbers that should have been in the week before), but it was promptly ignored by the media because it didn’t help Obama.

malclave on October 30, 2012 at 9:23 PM

YES!!!1

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

…you like the spotted goat the best?

KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Obama prayed millions more dropped from the labor pool.

CW on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

This means it’s “good”. Probably “only” 300k new UI filings.

Who is John Galt on October 30, 2012 at 9:26 PM

The next week’s report had a big jump (because it included the California numbers that should have been in the week before), but it was promptly ignored by the media because it didn’t help Obama.

malclave on October 30, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Thanks, didn’t realize that; of course they ignored it. So do you know what the # with California actually was? How can they claim a “trend” if the previous bogus report was revised upwards?

Firefly_76 on October 30, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Who cares? The BLS’s “statistics” are BS anyway.

VorDaj on October 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Prediction: Every state but North Dakota will not be present on the next jobs report.

nobar on October 30, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Obamaphone salesmen reporting 1780% increase.

patman77 on October 30, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Obama prayed millions more dropped from the labor pool.

CW on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

He got 4 off it in Benghazi.

VorDaj on October 30, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Business is up! ///

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 9:29 PM

YES!!!1

akaniku on October 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Meg Ryan?

Bmore on October 30, 2012 at 9:30 PM

He got 4 off it in Benghazi.

VorDaj on October 30, 2012 at 9:28 PM

He could have got more..
If it wasn’t for those two American Heroes…

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Kids these days should apply the Obama Rule ® to their testing. The teachers should drop some of the answers their students get wrong and thus the denominator would be reduced. Like magic things look better. Congrats kiddies.

Obama tested/Obama approved.

CW on October 30, 2012 at 9:36 PM

He got 4 off it in Benghazi.

VorDaj on October 30, 2012 at 9:28 PM

He could have got more..
If it wasn’t for those two American Heroes…

Electrongod on October 30, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Yep, without those SEALs, he could’ve had 30 or more out of the workforce. God Bless these heroes.

TXUS on October 30, 2012 at 9:38 PM

The folks at BLS looked at the election tea leaves and decided they wanted to still have a BLS around to employ them in some capacity after 20 January 2013.

Dusty on October 30, 2012 at 9:40 PM

The recipe calls for something below a 8%. Doubt if they dare to fudge it to less than 7.8.

bayview on October 30, 2012 at 9:41 PM

As long as you all are lauding Gallup, he accurately polled the drop to 7.8. He has been down to about 7.3 all this month. Its going down. That and this photo op storm for Obama is not good for our chances.

Robb on October 30, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Facebook censored Seals that dared to challenge Obama on Benghazi.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/10/30/Facebook-Censors-Navy-SEALS-To-Protect-Obama-on-Benghazi-Gate

CW on October 30, 2012 at 9:46 PM

The number doesn’t mean a thing as long as people aren’t seeing it in their own lives.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

^^THIS^^

GrannyDee on October 30, 2012 at 9:47 PM

This place is a chamber of conspiracy theorists.

rjl1999 on October 30, 2012 at 9:50 PM

It doesn’t matter, this election is done but the voting formality. Romney has too much momentum at this point, everyoll shows him continuing to stretch his lead, people have made up their minds.

Ellis on October 30, 2012 at 9:57 PM

As long as you all are lauding Gallup, he accurately polled the drop to 7.8. He has been down to about 7.3 all this month. Its going down.
Robb on October 30, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Link?

Mitsouko on October 30, 2012 at 9:59 PM

The report was found behind a stack of old Whitewater documents sitting in a broom closet.

Bishop on October 30, 2012 at 8:57 PM

..hey! That was my line! Check the posts back a few days ago! (Where’s rogerb when you really need him?)

The War Planner on October 30, 2012 at 10:03 PM

i don’t doubt that the UI rate will go down yet again. But if this were Booooosh every night the lead story we would here is that full-time workers are basically flat for the year. The increases have been in p/t workers plus state/local hires.

but if you are a leftist, that’s fine. you’ve got barry.care, disability, food stamps..or a sweet government job where you don’t have to do much or know anything…well, as long as you know someone.

that is the european model.

r keller on October 30, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Idiot. Half the country is ALREADY suspicious about their reports.

rayra on October 30, 2012 at 10:09 PM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadjusted-unemployment-mid-october.aspx

here’s the gallup link. Seasonal hiring. On an adjusted basis it is 7.7

underemployment is at 9.0

r keller on October 30, 2012 at 10:12 PM

The hurricane won’t affect the numbers and states don’t “report in” for the monthly unemployment figure. It’s based on a survey that was completed before any bad weather began and it’s not done on a state by state basis anyway.

jdp629 on October 30, 2012 at 10:18 PM

It will be 7.9%. 8.0 is the magic number to possibly decide the election.

reddevil on October 30, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Facebook censored Seals that dared to challenge Obama on Benghazi.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/10/30/Facebook-Censors-Navy-SEALS-To-Protect-Obama-on-Benghazi-Gate

CW on October 30, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Facebook is part of the progressive old media, no different in that respect from Politiho or Google or al New York Times. They will do what they can to protect Jesus Choomer al Chitcago.

slickwillie2001 on October 30, 2012 at 10:22 PM

They’re oversampling employed people!

Nah, just kidding, they are just making this s*** up.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 10:51 PM

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