Halperin: Democrats now on defense in blue states

posted at 10:11 am on October 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Just how much has this race changed since the first debate in October?  At the time, Democrats thought they had a pretty good glide path to a narrower win in the Electoral College than in 2008, but a win nonetheless.  Almost four weeks later, the Obama campaign is having to buy air time in states previously considered safe, such as Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the only state that never voted for Ronald Reagan in the EC.  Mark Halperin tells Morning Joe that while one cannot claim to know how this race will turn out, there is no doubt now that the Democrats have gone onto the defensive in states that they absolutely cannot afford to lose:

For corroboration, here’s Chuck Todd noting that Team Obama has now begun buying ads in the Keystone State:

If Obama has to personally start campaigning in Pennsylvania, Halperin says, that’s a problem in another way.  “Every day they’re spending in Pennsylvania,” he notes, “is a day they’re not spending in Ohio.”  And Team Romney is starting to like the way the race is turning in Ohio, Byron York reports:

Jason admits he didn’t pay much attention to politics four years ago. Since then, though, he’s been repeatedly disappointed by Obama. He was leaning toward Romney but still undecided until the first debate in early October. That did it; like his wife, Jason is all in for Romney now.

Gloeckner has joined what appears to be a growing number of Ohio voters moving toward a vote for the Republican ticket. On Monday, pollster Scott Rasmussen released a new survey showing Romney leading Obama in Ohio 50 percent to 48 percent — the first poll to show the challenger in front. Over the weekend, a poll done for Ohio’s top newspapers showed the race dead even, with both candidates at 49 percent.

Of course, many polls have shown Obama with a slight lead in Ohio, but the newer surveys suggesting a tightening race have Romney forces confident that something is going on in the state. On Monday morning, the campaign sent out a new strategy memo from Scott Jennings, the Ohio campaign director, that used the word “momentum” six times. Team Romney sees it everywhere in Ohio: polls, endorsements, early voting.

We’ll see.  But if Obama has to start defending Pennsylvania, that speaks volumes about his traction in more-Republican Ohio.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Meanwhile Florida is trending back to Obama. All of the latest polls has it within the margin of error.

Ric on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM

After working in a room with paint fumes or having enough of a sugary drink I see the whole country going back to O.

IlikedAUH2O on October 30, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Meanwhile Florida is trending back to Obama. All of the latest polls has it within the margin of error.

Ric on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM

When it’s even, the challenger wins.

Schadenfreude on October 30, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Yea, this sounds good, but it’s such a sucker bet. It’s like the lotto. Yes, somebody wins it every week, but the odds are so bad, it just makes no sense to spend anymore than the bare minimum, to get in. Given the Dem propensity for voter fraud, it’s more productive to make sure you have a big enough victory in the important states, in order to over come the Legions of Democrat Deceased, Multiple(Union Paid) and Illegal Alien voters.
Addendum on the fight against the Obama enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Obama will not get more then 47%

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Have you ever been through a storm and had to spend the next week without electricity?

I have and let me tell you, nerves are so frayed that you hate everybody. It doesn’t matter that the government people are suffering as well or doing all that they can. They are the focus of your anger.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Plus, the area that seems to be most affected are pro-Obama areas anyway. You really think that somebody living in Kansas is going to have empathy that some spoiled liberal in NYC wasn’t able to get their Starbucks and had to walk to work because of subway problems?

Happy Nomad on October 30, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Tom Corbett talking about Romney hahaha

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:32 PM

“According to what poll?
gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:11 PM

According to every poll out this morning. I knew your guy would mess this up because, lets face it, he’s a coward and that’s what cowards do. Americans know a coward when they see one.

tommyboy on October 30, 2012 at 12:19 PM”

LOL! I love it. You can’t mention one single poll that supports your position.

And Obama has cancelled another day of campaigning on Wednesday and puts the pressure on Romney to do the same.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Corbett mentions the president 1 time then talked Romney

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM

“Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM”

Again, Romney is weak in his best battleground state.

He will lose VA and OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

True, but his approval rating had cratered by election time.

Obama’s approval will do nothing but go up now.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 11:45 AM

So this is another one of those
Atomic Bombs??

ToddPA on October 30, 2012 at 12:37 PM

“Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM”

Again, Romney is weak in his best battleground state.

He will lose VA and OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Dude your crazy off the edge lib bro. You are frothing out of the mouth, Romney is going to win. You have no idea what you are talking about. Will someone please ban this guy

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Atomic bomb # 4 yet hahahahaha

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:39 PM

…throw every donkey azz out!

KOOLAID2 on October 30, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Donkeys are the “cover” for the GOP.

As long as there are “donkeys” the GOP can keep blaming them for the state of our nation.

Once the donkeys are gone – the GOP has no one else to blame and would have to, for the first time ever, actually PRODUCE something.

Which is why the GOP Ayatollahs want you to keep at least a few donkeys around.

HondaV65 on October 30, 2012 at 12:42 PM

And Obama has cancelled another day of campaigning on Wednesday and puts the pressure on Romney to do the same.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM

A dog with a bone.

ShadowsPawn on October 30, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Again, Romney is weak in his best battleground state.

He will lose VA and OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Nobody cares.

Bitter Clinger on October 30, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Rasmussen has Romney up in Ohio and he’s likely to stay there

http://www.coachisright.com/rasmussen-has-romney-up-in-ohio-and-hes-likely-to-stay-there/

from Gallup yesterday that shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008),

GOP rout in absentee ballots in Pennsylvania

http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/

Your toast

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

“Again, Romney is weak in his best battleground state.

He will lose VA and OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Nobody cares.

Bitter Clinger on October 30, 2012 at 12:45 PM”

Oh, you’ll care next Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

“Meanwhile Florida is trending back to Obama. All of the latest polls has it within the margin of error.

Ric on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM”

Thank you for the accurate and realistic post.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Curtesy of Dr Demento who has Gumby pegged

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxOYm8En2ms

Gumby rode out of the west
with a poll on his chest
And he tried his best
to make it stay

In the heat of the fray
10 polls won’t stick to clay
But what the hay
he rode them anyway

It was Gumby
refrain: He was Gumby

It was a hell of a gun
but the hot midday sun
was a’burning dirty and mean
And it’s harder to shoot
when your gun’s hot to boot
in your hand’s custom green plasticene
like Gumby’s…

Yeah and the beat goes on but no one’s buying your caca.

AH_C on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Four dead in Ohio? Now it is four dear and Ohio!

I hope that the auto workers and their suppliers don’t find out about the 55 MPG Cafe standards that DOE has on the agenda.

That will kill demand for new cars faster that 25% interest rates.

Of course, given how screwed up the industry got while all they worried about was their arcane contracts and position at the trough, maybe they will just move FORWARD in the unemployment line with everyone else.

IlikedAUH2O on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Oh, you’ll care next Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

No you don’t understand. We don’t care about your opinion on the matter. Win lose, we don’t give a wit about your predictions.

ShadowsPawn on October 30, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Mason Dixon calling FL for Mitt Romney

http://www.wokv.com/news/news/local/mason-dixon-calling-fl-mitt-romney/nSrLj/

Conservative4ev on October 30, 2012 at 12:52 PM

The hurrican/superstorm is the best thing that could have happened for Obama. This morning, even Chris Christie was just drooling over the “outstanding” job Obama is doing dealing with the storm.

Sandy will do more to boost Obama than millions and millions of dollars in campaign ads.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:11 AM

People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I warned you about jumping the gun. I told you that Bush looked good at this point in Katrina. I told you that the real problems don’t surface until later.

Well, lookie here! The first problem and it’s a D’oh!

FEMA, White House send storm victims to Internet

When President Barack Obama urged Americans under siege from Hurricane Sandy to stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest, he left out something pretty important — where to turn if the electricity goes out.

Despite the heightened expectation of widespread power and cable television failures, everyone from the president to local newscasters seem to expect the public to rely entirely on the Internet and their TVs for vital news and instructions.

None of the major cable or local news channels put emergency phone numbers or key radio station frequencies on their screens. The only phone-related instructions on the homepage of ready.gov is how to get monthly disaster-prep text messages. The Federal Emergency Management Agency told the public via Twitter to use texts and social media outlets to stay informed.

TV and radio are still the primary methods of getting information about Hurricane Sandy to the public, but social media are increasingly important to those efforts, FEMA chief Craig Fugate said Monday.

“With these types of storms, you get a lot of this is going to be carried out through the traditional TV and radio media,” Fugate told reporters on a conference call. “But we’re using a lot more social media, we’re using everything from Facebook to Twitter. I think there’s a higher degree of awareness that people have of the storm is coming and what the impacts are going to be.”

A call to FEMA’s news desk, however, found even they didn’t have any non-Internet information readily available beyond suggestions that people call 911 in an emergency. When asked where folks should turn for information if they have no power, a FEMA worker said, “Well, those people who have a laptop with a little battery life on it can try that way. Otherwise, you’re right.”

Such blind spots are perilous to the public, experts say.

Resist We Much on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM

LOL! I love it. You can’t mention one single poll that supports your position.

I didn’t have to mention just one, I mentioned lots of them. LOL, watching the parasite class come unhinged is sooooo delicious. The thought of actually having to work for a living just makes them come unglued.

tommyboy on October 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM

BHO – Barack Has-Been Obama!

paulbriggs on October 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM

In 2000, George W. Bush bluffed at the end that he was going to make a play for California, and Dick Cheney did the same in Hawaii in 2004. Now Romney is pretending he’s got a shot in states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

If Romney has no chance, why is the Obama campaign spending time and money in these states? Who’s doing the pretending?
aunursa on October 30, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Better question. Who won in 2000 and 2004? God, I hope they are really using this kind of logic……..

Tenwheeler on October 30, 2012 at 12:58 PM

People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

What exactly did he do??

I watched the Governors of these states, mine included, who
dealt with it. He simply said to “listen to them”.

In other words he did what was EXPECTED OF HIM.

Dude, your Life must be effing miserable.

ToddPA on October 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM

But if Obama has to start defending Pennsylvania, that speaks volumes about his traction in more-Republican Ohio.

As a liberal, I just have to laugh at this stuff:-) To any thinking person, it should be obvious that a) Romney obviously has record amounts of cash to spend on attack ads from now on, so Obama is merely being prudent here. B) According to RCP, Obama’s lead in the PA polls is a very solid 4.7% (as opposed to e.g. 0.9% for Kerry in the final polls). C) McCain went all-in in Pennsylvania shortly before the election as well; was this a sign of strength or desperation?? [note that not a single opinion poll in PA predicts romney is winning there].

The “epistemic closure” is just staggering, really. But we will know seven days from now how was right won’t we?

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Obama really is The Messiah if he gets a hurricane droppped into his lap to deal with a week before the election. People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Your “Messiah” failed. He didn’t lower the sea levels like he promised in 2008. Just ask people in Manhattan that today. Michael Savage was right, liberalism is a mental disorder.

Decoski on October 30, 2012 at 1:36 PM

So one poll showing Romney ahead and all is well, huh?

Today or tomorrow, there will be polls in OH showing Obama with the typical 3 pt lead and that will be that.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Your faith is touching. Hilarious, but touching.

tom on October 30, 2012 at 1:53 PM

“Every day they’re spending in Pennsylvania is a day they’re not spending in Ohio.”

On behalf of virtually all Ohioans, thanks to the blue states for turning purple. I wonder how many of the “undecideds” will vote against the candidate who runs the most ads or makes the most robo calls in the next week?

EconomicNeocon on October 30, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Rombo, you magnificent bastid!

While Obozo bunkers down watching the weather channel, Mitt and Ann are shaking hands of supporters bringing donations to help the flood victims.

Optimal optics, I’d say.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 30, 2012 at 1:58 PM

As a liberal, I just have to laugh at this stuff:-)

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Your credibility ended right there.

GALLUP: OBAMA’S EARLY-VOTE LEAD DROPS 22 PTS FROM 2008…

Atomic?

ShadowsPawn on October 30, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Obama really is The Messiah if he gets a hurricane droppped into his lap to deal with a week before the election. People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

And the mask slips just a little more.

ShadowsPawn on October 30, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Oh, you’ll care next Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Then please come back when we do.

kim roy on October 30, 2012 at 2:15 PM

And Obama has cancelled another day of campaigning on Wednesday and puts the pressure on Romney to do the same.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM

How does that help Obama? He’s the one trailing, so he needs to campaign stops more than Romney. And Mitt turned the tables on Barry by turning his rallies into relief efforts. That looks 1000 times better to see the man who could be our next President actually assisting hurricane victims himself than just speaking before adoring crowds. Let’s see Obama take the time out of his schedule to do something like that.

Doughboy on October 30, 2012 at 2:25 PM

So one poll showing Romney ahead and all is well, huh?

Today or tomorrow, there will be polls in OH showing Obama with the typical 3 pt lead and that will be that.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:16 AM

STILL WAITING to see that Gallup bounce you told us about after the 3rd debate…
LOL

Strike Hornet on October 30, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Obama really is The Messiah if he gets a hurricane droppped into his lap to deal with a week before the election. People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Demented one, go back into your padded cell. And pray that your messiah will cure you if your mental disease, but don’t get your hopes too high.

jimver on October 30, 2012 at 3:10 PM

A lot of this started when Romney and company started visting the coal parts of swing states.

burt on October 30, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Demented one, go back into your padded cell. And pray that your messiah will cure you if your mental disease, but don’t get your hopes too high.

jimver on October 30, 2012 at 3:10 PM

gumpy is the Chip Diller of the obama campaign.

Animal60 on October 30, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Obama really is The Messiah if he gets a hurricane droppped into his lap to deal with a week before the election. People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

You people are disgusting. Yay! 39+ people died so Obama can act all Preezy.

May you suffer immeasurably for all time you reprobate.

tom daschle concerned on October 30, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Obama really is The Messiah if he gets a hurricane droppped into his lap to deal with a week before the election. People are not going to vote out a guy who dealt with a natural disaster so efficiently.

gumbyandpokey on October 30, 2012 at 10:34 AM

It’s like you actually think Obama in the situation room is the equal of him standing out on Ellis Island in a cloak with a staff above his head pushing the thing back.

He did only what was expected, and all it might do is keep his approval from slipping even further. Look who he’s helping and possibly impressing: Blue states.

Meanwhile Bengahzi is like giant undertow to his approval and handling Sandy exactly how he’s supposed to can’t overcome that.

You can point to all the polls you want, but the turnout is going to be much, much closer to 2010 than 2008, if not exact. As many people have pointed out: “what has happened since 2010 to make the people that turned 2010 to suddenly not vote.”

PastorJon on October 30, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Every day people are without power, heat, water, they become more and more angry at “GOVERNMENT”…the fact that estimates have people going without power, heat and water for upwards of a week to two weeks is not a good thing for Barky and BiteMe…
What good is an Obama-Phone if you can’t call anyone?

Strike Hornet on October 30, 2012 at 8:11 PM

mika is NOT pleased.
Which pleases me so!

LOL!

Handel on October 30, 2012 at 11:59 PM

Meanwhile Florida is trending back to Obama. All of the latest polls has it within the margin of error.

Ric on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM

In the last 2 days, I’ve seen on a 5-mile stretch of divided-highway median in South Florida, 8 Romney-Ryan yard signs, 3 for Allen West. That’s just on the public land mind, not counting those in front of houses or businesses. I’ve seen exactly zero Obama signs, anywhere. I’ve also seen no signs for the Democrat US House candidate (sorry, I forgot his name – I haven’t seen or heard an ad for him since the start of October). Let me repeat – that’s South Florida, which might as well be an outpost colony of NYC. It’s within the MoE in FL and the trend is pointing back towards Barry-O? Pull the other one, it’s got bells on it.

Blacksmith on October 31, 2012 at 1:10 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3