WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1

posted at 8:41 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of poll data to peruse today, but let’s start with the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll.  For the third straight day, it reports that Mitt Romney has a one-point lead over Barack Obama, 49/48 — but its internals tell a different story.  And one reason for that is its shifting sample, which has gotten significantly more Democratic.

The Post reports the topline numbers:

For the third consecutive day of the Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, a single — statistically insignificant — percentage point separates the two presidential contenders: 49 percent of likely voters back Republican Mitt Romney, and 48 percent support President Obama.

The parity in the contest shows up elsewhere as well: the two candidates are just two points apart when it comes to dealing with taxes, and they are three points apart on health care policy. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the sample of 1,278 likely voters.

Just outside the error margin — albeit barely — is Romney’s five-point edge on issue No. 1, solving the nation’s economic troubles. Romney’s advantage here peaked at nine points late last week (52 to 43 percent); now, the split is 50 for the former Massachusetts governor to 45 percent for the president.

Also at a slender five points, Obama ekes out an advantage on understanding people’s economic problems. This had been a point of regular advantage before Romney appeared to neutralize it earlier in the tracking poll. In the new Washington Post Virginia poll, Obama holds a 13-point lead in economic empathy, consistent with a mid-September Post poll in that key battleground state.

What’s not statistically insignificant is Mitt Romney’s lead among independents.  He wins those 55/40, an overwhelming advantage in a group that Obama won by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven-point win overall in a big Democratic turnout.  That’s a 23-point shift in the gap among roughly 30% of the electorate.

One more takeaway from this poll is the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama won the gender gap by 14 points, with a +13 among women and +1 among men.  In this tracking poll, Romney has a 2-point advantage in the gender gap, with a +10 among men and a -8 among women.

If Romney wins independents by 15, and the gender gap by 2, how can he only be leading by one overall? Simple — the Post/ABC sample has a declining number of Republicans in its sample.  Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout.  Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

The toplines are simply not credible in relation to the internals.  If Romney is winning independents outside the margin of error and has neutralized the gender gap, Obama can’t possibly be within one point overall.  Either the toplines or the internals are way off.  Even the Post’s Chris Cillizza wondered at the disconnect:

President Obama has a problem with independents. And it’s not a small problem.

In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points. …

So, what gives? Why is Obama — at least according to the Post-ABC data — having so much trouble with independents?

The answer lies in the fact that most independents are not, well, independent. Of all the likely voters who called themselves independents in nine days of the Post-ABC tracking poll, fully three-quarters (75 percent) — said they tend to lean toward one party or the other. (The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

And it’s among those shadow partisans that Obama is struggling. Ninety-two percent of Republican-leaning independents said they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.

Except, of course, that this dynamic has always applied to self-described independents, in every election.  The comparison cycle on cycle remains entirely valid, which is more than what one can say for the Post’s shifting sample.


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you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

cozmo ,once again you can’t debate the political points so like a mad three year old you resort to insult …not very clever ones though …

as for being a bad troll ,if trolling is meant to cause reaction then I must be a damn good troll because every time I post on here the insults (not political debate of course)start flying
U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Ok…now it’s getting out of hand.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

No it isn’t.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

“Its all about the swing states!

papa_giorgio on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM”

Your swing state info is from yesterday.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Romney up big in ABC News, Rasmussen and Politico Swing State Tracking polls.

sentinelrules on October 29, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Then SHOW ME where and how Obama’s got all those EV’s wrapped up? I spent a lot of time trying to put Obama in a position where he tops out Romney in the election, and I’m not finding it unless the Ohio polls are way out of whack (they are, but in favor of Dems with D+7 samples and such).

The best scenario Obama has is to win Ohio, but as of last week, I’m convinced he doesn’t have that state. He’s going to have to get those EV’s somewhere else (FL? I don’t think so). I’m not finding them.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Obama loses O-I-H-O, then he has to hold onto all of the following: New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Doable, but a long shot.

If Romney loses O-I-H-O, then he can still get to 270 EVs by taking Colorado, Wisconsin, and any one of the remaining swing states. Again doable, but a long shot.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Rasmussen ,President Obama picks up two points since last week …By Hot Air definition MOMENTUM: President Obama

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Rasmussen, Romney 50-48 in ohio. by hot air definition, firewall on fire.

runner on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Your swing state info is from yesterday.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

This is what freefall looks like, folks.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

In your world perhaps. Stop operating in absolutes man, its really sad.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Suppress and steal is all they have left on the DimoRats side. Which is why GummyP is in such a tither again and will continue to be in such a tither here to try and bring you down with bad info.

The stealing part concerns me more then supressing. Everyone I know cannot wait to go do their part to throw JugEars out on his arse next Tuesday.

Rockshine on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

This is perfect for you.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

What I don’t understand is why skew the percentage of respondents? If the polls are actually this far off, wouldn’t it destroy their credibility (not that they have much) and leave them with egg on their face when they end up being so wrong.

I want to believe that most of these polls are off, but it makes me nervous. We just can’t afford going FORWARD! any longer.

bopbottle on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

It’s not, and if you think sandy is going to do that your kidding yourself. We are in the middle of it right now and it’s a joke

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Sell me your nic. As Bishop has pointed out, you really havn’t cracked the code on the whole trolling thing. Good trolls never leave such easy openings for the rest of us to exploit. Sell me your nic, I’ll teach you how it’s done.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Regarding Politico:

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Politico poll: Tied nationally. Romney goes from +2 in battleground states to +10 today. And from -2 with independents to +10 today.

Larry Schweikart ‏@LSchweikart

@NumbersMuncher @flynn1776 @adrian_gray Wow! Battleground tracking poll has Zero @ 8% adv with early voters–he just lost OH by 6!

2008 Battleground EV margin for Obama was 20. This is an erosion of 12 points.

He cannot win with that, espcially since he’s just frontloading election day votes and Romney will already dominate.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Gumby’s an idiot. He’s the guy who claimed last month’s job data would be an ATOM BOMB on romney.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

bopbottle on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I’ve wondered this too. People keep saying the polling gets more accurate the closer we get, but we aren’t seeing it. The enemedia is all in for the 0.

txhsmom on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

It has also been said that anyone under 50 in Gallup this late in the election cycle can’t win.

So what, does that cause some kind of cosmic anomaly in the world of Gumby? Did your entire universe just tear itself apart?

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Gallup suggests that demographic changes have been negligible since ’08…we’re only talking 4 years. And, for Ohio specifically, registration in Dem counties is down compared to ’08, which is further evidence that there’s not been an increase in the Dem population per se (or enough to really make that much of a difference).

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

The outlier in OH numbers is because 2010 saw an uptick in black voters from 2008, from 11 -14, IIRC.

Some are attributing it to OFA working on behalf of Strickland.

Its a massive anomaly number, because if accurate…

Kasich still won, which means…

OH’s higher-than-national-average white population either abandoned the Dems….

…Or the known Repub voters who sat out ’08 came back in droves…

…or a combination.

So, Obama would need to have a return to higher white voter turnout…

…but you can’t do that while losing the ‘burbs.

And Kasich v Strickland – 49/47.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

It’s not, and if you think sandy is going to do that your kidding yourself. We are in the middle of it right now and it’s a joke

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Where are you located?

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Larry Schweikart ‏@LSchweikart

@NumbersMuncher @flynn1776 @adrian_gray Wow! Battleground tracking poll has Zero @ 8% adv with early voters–he just lost OH by 6!

That confirms what I said earlier about Ohio. There’s NO WAY Obama will get his EV’s there. He’s got to get them elsewhere and I can’t find them.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Bayview ,I have to go, but since of all the fools on here today you were the most clever ( it was just amazing how you changed the N in the word to a Z to make a funny insult ,simply amazing … shock and awe )… I will respond to you last

you also won in the most mentally sick and pathetic category congratulations
finally you won in the category of what Hot Airer would Mr.Romney be most embarrassed by and who he would reject the support of, like he did Rep. Akin

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins. Now it could be weekend noise, but it could also be a trend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

So you are saying that Obama hit 50%, so it’s automatic that he wins, except if it is weekend noise, then it’s not automatic? What does the word automatic mean to you?

Night Owl on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Drudge report:

OHIO: R 50% O 48%… Developing…

Obama is all done and has been for some time.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

It’s not, and if you think sandy is going to do that your kidding yourself. We are in the middle of it right now and it’s a joke

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Where are you located?

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

My mother is in North Cape May and her house is fine, she is on the bay side. I live in Burlington county, and we have rain and wind. We have good sewage here, so there is really nothing going on here but playing games with the kids

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Adios mo__.

It was a pleasure smackin’ you around.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Hush now, the adults are talking.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

What does the word automatic mean to you?

Night Owl on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Whatever he needs it to be at the time.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

My mother is staying with us so she is making spaghetti and meatballs :) hot sausage, stuffed artichokes its great :)

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

My friend Julia says to tell you. Bless your little heart. Now sell me your nic.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

It’s not, and if you think sandy is going to do that your kidding yourself. We are in the middle of it right now and it’s a joke

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Well it’s not too funny up here in New England. I drove to work this morning and had a white knuckle ride straight home again. The storm hasn’t even really landed yet.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Is your mommy yelling at you?

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Bottom line. Romney voters are mostly quietly waiting for Nov 6 to pull the lever. Most of the polls are based on cell phone users and the percentage of respondents has fallen 80%. The storm is coming.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

How would a loser all his life know when someone else wins something?

And you have to go? Well, Oliver Cromwell to you.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Well it’s not too funny up here in New England. I drove to work this morning and had a white knuckle ride straight home again. The storm hasn’t even really landed yet.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

We getting before you, the surf is up and rough on the barrier islands, I think the current is heading to you though

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

My mother is in North Cape May and her house is fine, she is on the bay side. I live in Burlington county, and we have rain and wind. We have good sewage here, so there is really nothing going on here but playing games with the kids

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Don’t get too comfortable just yet. You are only feeling the outer rain band at this point. The center of circulation is forecast to pass directly over or near you, that is when things are the most dangerous. You are far enough inland that you need not fear the tidal surge, but wind and tornadoes caused by the high winds near the center will be a real problem. The storm seems to be holding together at the moment.

Then your issue will be power. Depending on how widespread the damage is, you could be without power for up to a week. After Hurricane Rita and Ike , we were without power for a month.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Following is quoted from the story on Drudge about Dems fearing Sandy could quell turnout. Tell me what is wrong with this picture???


After attending a church service in Washington as usual on Sunday morning, the president headed to the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a briefing on storm assistance preparations.

Chewy the Lab on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

And, imbecile loser like you blends in perfectly with the typical Barry voter.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Don’t get cocky….gotv folks

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Yea power is the issue but no worries, gas fire place :)

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Yes. I think I just experienced a small sample of what’s incoming.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2012 at 10:22 AM

you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Bayview ,I have to go, but since of all the fools on here today you were the most clever
you also won in the most mentally sick and pathetic category congratulations

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I haven’t had it so easy since the heady days of Sarah Palin fever.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Don’t get cocky….gotv folks

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

I don’t think that’ll be a problem. BTW, who on here has already voted? The wife and I went on Saturday.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Bottom line. 1.Romney voters are mostly quietly waiting for Nov 6 to pull the lever. 2.Most of the polls are based on cell phone users and the percentage of respondents has fallen 80%. 3.The storm is coming.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM

1. Correct: Romney voters are not the bloviating, shrill, libtards. They will deliver a smackdown that the libs were never expecting.

2. What??!! My Obama phone done been cut off!!!

3. Referendum!!

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I’ve wondered this too. People keep saying the polling gets more accurate the closer we get, but we aren’t seeing it. The enemedia is all in for the 0.

txhsmom on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

\

I try and give all pollster some benefit of doubt, and attribute the low response reception and mobile change to the noise factor.

But, You’ve always got to take the fear factor into account.

Last week, no one wanted to be the guy showing Romney with any kind of lead in OH.

They sat out, waited for the last paper endorsements the Columbus Dispatch poll.

So with CBUS saying it’s 49/49 and Ras 50 for Romney…

…OH started tilting Romney last week.

Which is why Kasich openly acknowledge that on MTP yesterday.

If anyone has been following Kasich, he and Romney were keeping a football field between them until Sept, when Kasich started polling in the 50′s…

…and after he signed the pension reform into place.

And that’s been the real question mark in OH; will the normally R public sector voters come back after SB5, or not?

I think most had not and that’s why Obama held his lead for so long. But, now we’re seeing a shift that indicates SCM worker households must be splitting votes; one guy Obama, one goes Romney.

Same thing that happen in 2K. Whereas in ’04 and ’08, both went in one direction.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

OHIO: R 50% O 48%… Developing…

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Following is quoted from the story on Drudge about Dems fearing Sandy could quell turnout. Tell me what is wrong with this picture???

After attending a church service in Washington as usual on Sunday morning, the president headed to the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a briefing on storm assistance preparations.

Chewy the Lab on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

After attending a church service in Washington as usual

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:29 AM

When Romney wins independents by double digits, and Obama only gets 37-39% of the white vote (which will make up about 70%) of the voters on Election Day, Obama is going to be re-elected how?

I mean, these Axelrod trolls are ridiculous.

eyedoc on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I’ve already voted doughboy

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

After attending a church service in Washington as usual…

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Awwwww….Reverend wright must be in town

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Rasmussen: OHIO

R: 50%

O: 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

RuPoll, you were saying something about Romney losing ground in Ohio?

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

BTW, who on here has already voted? The wife and I went on Saturday.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I have. Voted absentee.

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 10:34 AM

BTW, who on here has already voted? The wife and I went on Saturday.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Last week, the first day of early voting in Texas. Wife made it there on Wednesday.

It won’t make much of a difference for the Texas result, but it sure felt good.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Wishing what? I asked a simple question about demographics. Can you not discern an honest question from an assertion? You label me an Obama supporter for posing a valid question.

Missing any critical thinking skills?

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Rasmussen: OHIO

R: 50%

O: 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

RuPoll, you were saying something about Romney losing ground in Ohio?

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Uh Oh. His worlds are colliding!

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Most stunning #s in Ras OH are from the issues: R +12 on economy, +8 jobs, +10 nat’l security, 8 energy. Inflated early voter #s saving O.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen national tightens to 2, Romney up 49-47. Romney doing better with crossovers, but independents have tightened over weekend

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Rasmussen: OHIO

R: 50%

O: 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

RuPoll, you were saying something about Romney losing ground in Ohio?

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Well, looks like 0 has this thing all wrapped up. Time for him to just coast to an easy victory. We’re doomed! Assume the fetal position, it’s over!

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 10:54 AM

RuPoll, you were saying something about Romney losing ground in Ohio?
Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

The name RuPoll is great. Kudos to the person who came up with that. :-)

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:57 AM

ABC decided against the D+25?

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 11:04 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Why is it that so many liberals appear so illiterate in their comments? Are sentences that difficult? Did this one fail English? And if it did fail, was it middle school or high school?

Curious minds want to know…

dominigan on October 29, 2012 at 11:30 AM

The name RuPoll is great. Kudos to the person who came up with that. :-)

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Thanks.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:36 AM

There isn’t any poll that will dampen enthusiasm, or keep Romney voters from the polls. We see light at the end of the tunnel. Now, Obama voters on the other hand, will probably roll over and go back to sleep on Nov. 6.

BettyRuth on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I agree. Actually I think the attempts at suppression with these really close polls will end up backfiring because I say to myself, well then we really need to get out there and push Romney over the top. Just think how many wouldn’t show up if we thought it was in the bag?

GeorgiaBuckeye on October 29, 2012 at 11:37 AM

cozmo ,once again you can’t debate the political points so like a mad three year old you resort to insult …not very clever ones though …

as for being a bad troll ,if trolling is meant to cause reaction then I must be a damn good troll because every time I post on here the insults (not political debate of course)start flying
U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You are the most idiotic poster here, the last comment I read from you on another thread was half illiterate, half retarded. So don’t flatter yourself about being a good troll, you’re not, you’re just a liberal imbecile. One among millions, nothing special about you.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 12:26 PM

After attending a church service in Washington as usual…

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:29 AM

‘As usual’ loool :)…

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 12:27 PM

It seems to me as if the state polls provide a better indication of who is winning. E.g. if we look at the three most recent elections, we note that Bush was leading by 3.2% in the final national polls before election night in 2000 ( http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/29/wapoabc-tracking-poll-has-romney-up-1/ ) despite actually losing the popular vote. In 2004, Kerry was trailing by 1.5% and lost by 2.4% in the end ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html ). And in 2008, Obama won by 7.3% after leading by 7.6% in the final polls ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html ).

All things considered I would rather be in the position where Obama is now, with the recent polls in OH, WI, IA and NV indicating he is leading by 2% or more… If you look at the RCP state averages in 2004 and 2008, there were very few surprises on election night apart from Indiana in 2008 (where the polls predicted McCain was leading by 1.4%).

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Sorry, wrong link for the 2000 elections.

E.g. if we look at the three most recent elections, we note that Bush was leading by 3.2% in the final national polls before election night in 2000 ( http://web.archive.org/web/200012070127/http://realclearpolitics.com/polls.html ) despite actually losing the popular vote.

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 1:01 PM

In 2008, Obama won the gender gap by 14 points, with a +13 among women and +1 among men.

This is a gender gap of 12. A gap is the difference between A and B, not A and B added together. If one boxer is 6’2″ and the other is 6’0″, the height gap is 2″, not 12’2″.

VorDaj on October 29, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Something tells me Ed got a lot higher on his Verbal SAT than on his Math SAT. Good thing he became a journalist rather than a pharmacist.

VorDaj on October 29, 2012 at 3:33 PM

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