WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1

posted at 8:41 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of poll data to peruse today, but let’s start with the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll.  For the third straight day, it reports that Mitt Romney has a one-point lead over Barack Obama, 49/48 — but its internals tell a different story.  And one reason for that is its shifting sample, which has gotten significantly more Democratic.

The Post reports the topline numbers:

For the third consecutive day of the Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, a single — statistically insignificant — percentage point separates the two presidential contenders: 49 percent of likely voters back Republican Mitt Romney, and 48 percent support President Obama.

The parity in the contest shows up elsewhere as well: the two candidates are just two points apart when it comes to dealing with taxes, and they are three points apart on health care policy. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the sample of 1,278 likely voters.

Just outside the error margin — albeit barely — is Romney’s five-point edge on issue No. 1, solving the nation’s economic troubles. Romney’s advantage here peaked at nine points late last week (52 to 43 percent); now, the split is 50 for the former Massachusetts governor to 45 percent for the president.

Also at a slender five points, Obama ekes out an advantage on understanding people’s economic problems. This had been a point of regular advantage before Romney appeared to neutralize it earlier in the tracking poll. In the new Washington Post Virginia poll, Obama holds a 13-point lead in economic empathy, consistent with a mid-September Post poll in that key battleground state.

What’s not statistically insignificant is Mitt Romney’s lead among independents.  He wins those 55/40, an overwhelming advantage in a group that Obama won by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven-point win overall in a big Democratic turnout.  That’s a 23-point shift in the gap among roughly 30% of the electorate.

One more takeaway from this poll is the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama won the gender gap by 14 points, with a +13 among women and +1 among men.  In this tracking poll, Romney has a 2-point advantage in the gender gap, with a +10 among men and a -8 among women.

If Romney wins independents by 15, and the gender gap by 2, how can he only be leading by one overall? Simple — the Post/ABC sample has a declining number of Republicans in its sample.  Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout.  Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

The toplines are simply not credible in relation to the internals.  If Romney is winning independents outside the margin of error and has neutralized the gender gap, Obama can’t possibly be within one point overall.  Either the toplines or the internals are way off.  Even the Post’s Chris Cillizza wondered at the disconnect:

President Obama has a problem with independents. And it’s not a small problem.

In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points. …

So, what gives? Why is Obama — at least according to the Post-ABC data — having so much trouble with independents?

The answer lies in the fact that most independents are not, well, independent. Of all the likely voters who called themselves independents in nine days of the Post-ABC tracking poll, fully three-quarters (75 percent) — said they tend to lean toward one party or the other. (The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

And it’s among those shadow partisans that Obama is struggling. Ninety-two percent of Republican-leaning independents said they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.

Except, of course, that this dynamic has always applied to self-described independents, in every election.  The comparison cycle on cycle remains entirely valid, which is more than what one can say for the Post’s shifting sample.


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U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

New troll?

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:28 AM

No way, I want a full blown meltdown.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:16 AM

lol I agree! But you know what kind of reaction we will get after the RR landslide?

crickets, crickets, crickets :)

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I spent the last 4 days waving a Romney/Ryan sign on a busy corner near downtown Columbus, Ohio. I tood the Greyhound bus up here from Houston, Texas so I could volunteer a few days for the Team.

Mixed neighborhood: 50% thumbs up and honks for Mitt, 50% ‘F’ Yous and “O-ba-ma(s)” Had one guy try to run me over on the curb. Stood my ground. He swerved at the last minute.

LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!

ericdondero on October 29, 2012 at 8:57 AM

I applaud your effort! Thank you very much!

Night Owl on October 29, 2012 at 9:28 AM

9 minutes! Everyone give this special little guy a round of applause.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

golf clap…and a mighty guffaw.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:28 AM

9 minutes! Everyone give this special little guy a round of applause.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I think I’m starting to see this more clearly now. Gumby hates Mitt Romney, that’s what this is all about, nothing more and nothing less.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Gumby is not genuinely predicting anything. He is simply trying to spin any information available over and over in order to try to make people believe the lie that Obama still has a chance. It has reached the point of tragic comedy.

What is really sad is that Gumby gives false hope to the ever-diminishing bunch of Obama worshipers out there. It is cruel what he’s doing to them, and I hope he feels guilty when he sees how their hopes and dreams are dashed when Romney’s inevitable victory is reported. Gumby should be more honest to his fellow Obama voters.

The cold hard truth is that the Obama campaign is in a state of panic. Obama’s sagging favorability numbers, his dismal job approval rating, and his continued erosion of independent voter support make it impossible for Obama to pull off a win. It is time that we spoke realistically and acknowledged this fact.

Obama continues to do progressively worse by the day. It is just one bad poll for Obama after another. The more that Gumby predicts an Obama uptick in the polls, the worse Obama does. Call it the Gumby jinx.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Prediction : Romney 285 EV allowing for PA,WI,MI to go Obama. I don’t see OH going Obama. While I don’t see landslide for Mitt (would have been great), the thought that Mitt could snap up over 300 EV (305?) to me is just out of reach.

My eyes are on PA. I have them in Obama’s camp now, but if they flip can you spell L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E?

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:31 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Romney gets indies by 15…d+7 sample….enough said

runner on October 29, 2012 at 9:33 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Like those polls that had 45% of OH early voting, while the SoS site had less than 20% You fail.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:34 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Blatant lie. While Obama leads in early voting, I’m not seeing number NEAR 2008 levels for him.

He’s toast in Ohio.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I spent the last 4 days waving a Romney/Ryan sign on a busy corner near downtown Columbus, Ohio. I tood the Greyhound bus up here from Houston, Texas so I could volunteer a few days for the Team.

Mixed neighborhood: 50% thumbs up and honks for Mitt, 50% ‘F’ Yous and “O-ba-ma(s)” Had one guy try to run me over on the curb. Stood my ground. He swerved at the last minute.

LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!

ericdondero on October 29, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Wow, terrific! I’m taking election day off from work so I can be a poll watcher for the campaign.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 9:34 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Jerking off results in injury to the wrist. The arm, strange. Well, maybe anatomy, like math, is hard for leftie who does not know his ass from his elbow.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Gumby,

Obama is losing the suburbs in the Battleground poll by +10.

He’s getting killed in the rurals, which is offsetting his urban base.

He can’t win Ohio without the ‘burbs. I’ve been saying that for months.

That’s why he’s so focused on college campuses. He’s hoping to offset the ‘burbs with people they’re pulling out of the woodwork.

You’re not sincere about a damn thing you write.

Obvious trolls are obvious.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I also predict 285 for Romney.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Not only Romney wins in a landslide, but then I get to watch gumby get banned then into see James Bond on that Friday. It’s going to be a great week

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I think English is a fifth or sixth language to U2Denver.

That shite is incoherent.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The more that Gumby predicts an Obama uptick in the polls, the worse Obama does. Call it the Gumby jinx.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:31 AM

We call it “reverse Midas touch”.

Archivarix on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I also predict 285 for Romney.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Did you use the RCP map for that (as I did?). It’s a real useful tool. I kicked it around in all sorts of scenarios and the 285 EV was the most viable I could come up with.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Oh, look. There was a commenter on FreeRepublic.com years ago also named Gumbyandpokey. How funny, that commenter also liked to post nothing but negative comments about Republicans’ electoral chances. Definitely just a coincidence. Couldn’t be the same person because our Gumby has claimed to be a conservative, even though few believe him.

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:gumbyandpokey/index?tab=comments

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

President Obama up by one in GWU/Politico poll ,an upswing iof three points in last week up by 4 in President Obama up by 4 in Virginia from this weekend WPost poll, overall President still up by two in Ohio ,so who knows who will win but the Romney momentum thing is proven false

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Explain to me how this is English again? I can live with the typos but this is incoherent.

Bravesbill on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

We call it “reverse Midas touch”.

Archivarix on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

The modern incarnation of that is: “The 0bama touch”.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Right. Didn’t you say that Obama would be having huge momentum 500 times now? All lies. Give it up gumballs.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

AHEAD in Ohio: 50:48!

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Obama holds a 13-point lead in economic empathy

What the H-E-double hockey-sticks does that mean? That he puts on a sad face as he thinks of all the poor, out-of-work people that he helped put there, as he rides around in his limos?!

And what type of moron would actually think he would care?

Sterling Holobyte on October 29, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Give it up gumballs.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Can’t, he needs the minutes for his 0bamaphone.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Did you use the RCP map for that (as I did?). It’s a real useful tool. I kicked it around in all sorts of scenarios and the 285 EV was the most viable I could come up with.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I am using this map as a guide, considering how the elections went in the past two elections and factoring in the current polling in the swing states:

http://on.wsj.com/PWuhdH

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 9:40 AM

AHEAD in Ohio: 50:48!
Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Romney takes the lead in Ohio! Democrats are wasting their time in Ohio.

We all knew it was coming. But who knew the polls would show Romney pulling ahead this soon? It’s game over for Obama.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:41 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Go ahead and believe that Obama is up with indies in O-I-H-O even though he’s down by huge margins in every other swing state and nationally. I look forward to your disappearing act on November 6 when Romney’s declared the winner even before the Left Coast results come in.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:41 AM

HAY GUYS. I FOUND A POLL THAT HAS OBAMA UP 0.5% WITH REDHEADS IN VIRGINIA. ROMNEY’S DOOMED!!!

-gumby

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

It’s no surprise that democrat-leaning independants vote early, hence the +4 with independants you quoted earlier. However, that’s the rosiest scenario democrats will get in OH this election. It’s downhill from there. When you are getting AVERAGES from all polls showing Mitt +15 independants, it will only get ugly for the dems.

If I were conservative and saw numbers -15 against me, I’d be very concerned. However, cherry-pick to your heart’s content gumby, and tell Obama to pick up the phone when I call.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:42 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Rasmussen is helping the president in this poll by overestimating the early vote(I think anything over 30% is generous) and is one of the few pollsters seeing indys breaking for Obama. If Democratic turnout is higher than the poll predicts, it may be offset by these factors.

We all should be thrilled seeing an Ohio poll based in reality though….or did you prefer seeing the D+8 polls instead?

Zybalto on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

bayview ,I wouldn’t worry about your arm ,I would worry about your sick pathetic mind .Your comment shows you are need in of some mental health therapy . Mr . Romney would be embarrassed by your grossness ,but he would help you get some of that health insurance he helped create in Massachusetts ( the brother of Obamacare)

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

A warning sign about the OH poll is that Obama is +4 with Independents. And, of course, Romney is getting killed in early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:32 AM

No actually it’s a great sign. Mitt’s up with OH indies across all the polls by around 11-12 on average. So it’s on the low side.

And Rasmussen does the same thing everyone else does- oversample the early vote to somewhere in the 30s. It’s 20% as of last night.

If you took yesterday’s PPP poll and corrected their 36% EV back to 20% with their exact EV/ED margins, PPP had it Mitt 50/49

Awesome poll for Romney and shows the clear momentum in the final week.

Hopefully tomorrow will be better for you.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Wrong, weekend poll, Romney destroying in independents, it’s statiscal noise. Romeny is now ahead in Ohio

50- 48. You guys are toast your guy can’t break 50 no matter what. Incumbents under 50 are toast. James Carrillo your hero already said whatever the number is for Obama is what he is going to get in the election. None are at 50

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:44 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Stop drooling on yourself. You’re in public.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I spent the last 4 days waving a Romney/Ryan sign on a busy corner near downtown Columbus, Ohio. I tood the Greyhound bus up here from Houston, Texas so I could volunteer a few days for the Team.

Mixed neighborhood: 50% thumbs up and honks for Mitt, 50% ‘F’ Yous and “O-ba-ma(s)” Had one guy try to run me over on the curb. Stood my ground. He swerved at the last minute.

LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!

ericdondero on October 29, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Thank you for what you’re doing.

I spoke with my mother yesterday evening who lives in Amelia, Ohio. She had driven to Dayton on Saturday, back roads because she hates the interstate, she said she didn’t see one Obama sign, but did see dozens of Romney/Ryan signs.

btw, my mother is a registered Democrat who will be voting for Romney. Not because she particularly cares for Romney, but because of what that nice young man, Paul Ryan, said about protecting Social Security for his mother.

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:44 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

If you were a little bit more intelligent, you wouldn’t suck at being a troll so much.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Carville

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I use a stream of consciousness approach

Well, maybe that’s your problem. How on earth would an arm injury affect the way you think? Interesting. So if I type slowly, I will just start typing random crap? I would think it would be the opposite. Live and learn, huh?

Night Owl on October 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

He does every weekend.

If you’re clinging to weekend outliers that still have Romney up, I’m very worried for you.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Gumby – Did you actually breakdown the Ras OH poll?

It’s f*king abysmal for Obama.

What you’re banking on is the early votes are accurate and Ras is biased.

The first has been proven incorrect.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

bud fox ,… losing… Charlie Sheen called and he is embarrassed you are using his movie name ,you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

It’s pleasant to see the frenzied, desperate cheerleading every time some poll shows Romney with an imaginary lead.

Now for the cold, hard facts:
President Obama is on track to win the EC. He has multiple paths to victory and all the happy talk and Rasmussen polls in the world won’t change that.

President Obama will be re-elected next Tuesday.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

If Rasmussen does indeed put Romney up by 2 in Ohio then that is the lead in Ohio that Gumby has always denied would happen. It also shows increased momentum toward Mitt. Ohio is now reflecting this momentum albeit later than redder states like FL, VA and CO. I expect the same to occur this week in Nevada, WI, Iowa where Rasmussen up till now has the race tied. If so the election will be a land slide.
Re the Rasmussen poll that has Mitt at 49, Obama remains stuck at 46-7 and hasn’t budged. Which means Mitt’s true lead remins 4 to 5 once undecided voters are factored in.

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

He doesn’t care about his lies.

It’s hilarious how gumby claims to be a Santorum voter. If Rick was the nominee, gumby would still be pulling this crap.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

This is what I love.

Ras national number has tightened with Indies…

…but all we’ve been told for two weeks is state polls matter more.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

And you can’t even write coherently. You fail constantly, and epicly.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Why no mention of demographic changes from one election to the next?

I understand the oversampling of Dems and the history of national trends compared to Ohio trends – but you have to also account for the change in demographics every 4 years.

With the increase in population of races that tend to vote Dem and the decrease in races that tend to vote Repub, that is probably worth 2 percentage points in Ohio from 2008 to 2012.

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Prediction : Romney 285 EV allowing for PA,WI,MI to go Obama. I don’t see OH going Obama. While I don’t see landslide for Mitt (would have been great), the thought that Mitt could snap up over 300 EV (305?) to me is just out of reach.

My eyes are on PA. I have them in Obama’s camp now, but if they flip can you spell L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E?

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Have to wonder how this storm may impact PA…..if Philly is still recovering…..how does that change voter turnout in the eastern part of the state which could really change the final results. Will Obama whine that it is not fair?…..try to postpone the election?, (would that even be constitutional?) Also NY…..if NYC area is still recovering, and how that dominates the lib side of the state……how might that change things?

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

President Obama will be re-elected next Tuesday.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

In the alternate reality that you and Stephanie Cutter occupy.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM
Of the year? C’mon man, there have been some doosies.

I will go for incoherent comment of the year though.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I’ll concede the point if you quit picking on me. I’m … sensitive.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Wishing doesn’t make it true.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Romney has been over performing with Rasmussen over the last while since Rasmussen starting weighting their daily tracker at D+4 for the general….which is a fairly optimistic view of Democratic turnout. It’s at least reasonable though.

Zybalto on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Now for the cold, hard facts:
President Obama is on track to win the EC. He has multiple paths to victory and all the happy talk and Rasmussen polls in the world won’t change that.

President Obama will be re-elected next Tuesday.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

You realize none of those were facts, right?

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Karl Rove pointed out several times the early voters the Dems had garnered are high propensity Barry base voters who otherwise wait till election day to cast the same vote, whereas the Romney campaign was successful in getting low propensity voters who might not have voted.
The lead among early voters is a manufactured psy op mirage by Barry/Axelrod.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

My eyes are on PA. I have them in Obama’s camp now, but if they flip can you spell L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E?

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Go ahead and spell it, buddy. I’m putting all of my anonymous blog commenter credibility on the line. I believe Romney will win PA.

Night Owl on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

HAY GUYS. I FOUND A POLL THAT HAS OBAMA UP 0.5% WITH REDHEADS IN VIRGINIA. ROMNEY’S DOOMED!!!

-gumby

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:41 AM

It’s that damn redhead in the unemployment line. She’s voting for Obama.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

wargamer6 , your lack of intelligence is demonstrated by your inability to debate political points ,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Why no mention of demographic changes from one election to the next?

I understand the oversampling of Dems and the history of national trends compared to Ohio trends – but you have to also account for the change in demographics every 4 years.

With the increase in population of races that tend to vote Dem and the decrease in races that tend to vote Repub, that is probably worth 2 percentage points in Ohio from 2008 to 2012.

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

If anything, from voter registration trends to population changes…..the change in Oiho will tend to benefit republicans

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I’ll concede the point if you quit picking on me. I’m … sensitive.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Okay rotorhead hawkdriver, you got it.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Wow. The Trolls are agitated. They know.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Couldn’t be the same person because our Gumby has claimed to be a conservative, even though few believe him.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Actually pokeme set the record straight a few days ago by confiding his conservative credentials. He voted for Donald Reagan twice and he also owns one of those gun things.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

President Obama will be re-elected next Tuesday.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Then SHOW ME where and how Obama’s got all those EV’s wrapped up? I spent a lot of time trying to put Obama in a position where he tops out Romney in the election, and I’m not finding it unless the Ohio polls are way out of whack (they are, but in favor of Dems with D+7 samples and such).

The best scenario Obama has is to win Ohio, but as of last week, I’m convinced he doesn’t have that state. He’s going to have to get those EV’s somewhere else (FL? I don’t think so). I’m not finding them.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Polling reputations are on the line as we head into late this week and early next. They will have to normalize themselves toward reality. Already seeing it in the WaPo/ABC poll.

More adjustments soon to come. They will all be moving toward Rasmussen and Gallup spreads.

“Suddenly” Romney will have “new” momentum in the polling which of themselves will build momentum toward a November 6th landslide as the late-deciding voters choose to join the winning team. I’ll call it the “sporting effect”.

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

They do

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Axelrod must be really short on cash if he’s paying for trolls like this one.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Yes, everyday WAPO increases it’s Dem+ sample to keep Romney up only one. A few days ago the sample was D+4. Now it is D+7 and Romney STILL leads by 1.

The takeaway?

There is NO WAY NO HOW NOT POSSIBLE ON ANY PLANET a way for Obama to win re-election and lose indies by 15. Simply not possible.

This may be why GWU/Battleground Poll is CALLING THE RACE FOR ROMNEY 52/47:

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

mitchellvii on October 29, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Romney’s lead shrinks again in Rasmussen, now only up 2, 49-47. He’s lost a ton of ground with Independents over the weekend.

you like rasmussen now? ok then, he has Romney 50-48 in ohio. still like him? thought so.

runner on October 29, 2012 at 9:52 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Most stunning #s in Ras OH are from the issues: R +12 on economy, +8 jobs, +10 nat’l security, 8 energy. Inflated early voter #s saving O.

Romney is killing in the Ohio poll in all the categories that are important….and yes, the inflated early vote numbers are the only think stopping this from being a 3-4 point lead.

Zybalto on October 29, 2012 at 9:52 AM

wargamer6 , your lack of intelligence is demonstrated by your inability to debate political points ,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I wouldn’t go on about intelligence while you’re having so much difficulty getting a single coherent put together. I realize you said you’re missing an arm, but my God.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Axelrod must be really short on cash if he’s paying for trolls like this one.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:51 AM

The BoA money they needed to borrow came with government attached strings. They had to hire these guys.

Hoisted on their own petard…again.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:53 AM

400,000 names “purged” from Ohio voting rolls. GAME OVER….

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

bud fox ,… losing… Charlie Sheen called and he is embarrassed you are using his movie name ,you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

wargamer6 , your lack of intelligence is demonstrated by your inability to debate political points ,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:49 AM

You know, sometimes I almost feel bad that they make it so easy.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

bud fox ,… losing… Charlie Sheen called and he is embarrassed you are using his movie name ,you can’t debate the political points so you try to be clever with an insult but you failed …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

He said, with an insult.

I’m loving watching you guys meltdown.

To repeat: the Washington Post says Obama has to repeat his historic D+7 2008 turnout just to lose to Romney by 1.

If you take this poll and apply Gallup’s final voter ID of R+1, Romney would be up by 7 or 8.

Discuss.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I understand the oversampling of Dems and the history of national trends compared to Ohio trends – but you have to also account for the change in demographics every 4 years.

With the increase in population of races that tend to vote Dem and the decrease in races that tend to vote Repub, that is probably worth 2 percentage points in Ohio from 2008 to 2012.

michaelthomas on October 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Gallup suggests that demographic changes have been negligible since ’08…we’re only talking 4 years. And, for Ohio specifically, registration in Dem counties is down compared to ’08, which is further evidence that there’s not been an increase in the Dem population per se (or enough to really make that much of a difference).

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I miss Donald.

And his Flagemonics.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:55 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I would not worry about your mind because you are mindless. Gross? I had to stoop down to the level you inhabit and might understand, provided that your two neurons did not misfired.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:55 AM

New troll?

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Nope, tired, cranky, old and pathetic.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 9:55 AM

You know, sometimes I almost feel bad that they make it so easy.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Don’t, they are masochists and this is the closest they can cum to getting spanked by a woman.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:56 AM

cozmo ,once again you can’t debate the political points so like a mad three year old you resort to insult …not very clever ones though …

as for being a bad troll ,if trolling is meant to cause reaction then I must be a damn good troll because every time I post on here the insults (not political debate of course)start flying ,you folks just don’t have decent ignoring skills .I am not a legend like Gumby who has you folks eating out of his hand like monkeys but I do okay.
But in truth I am not a troll I registered on here because they had open registration and they don’t ask if you are a Democrat ,so obviously the owners want Democrats on here ,sorry talk to them ,not me .

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

U2Denver – Obvious. Trolls. Are. Obvious.

Wow. The Trolls are agitated. They know.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 9:50 AM

No. This is what we get because Ed and Jazz wanted to polish MorningJoe’s nob.

Ed wants to go on MSNBC, he should go like Krauthammer does; as a columnist, not a rep of of WaPo.

The Scarby arse-kissing is short-sighted.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Just got a polling call by a firm called Study America. Anybody ever heard of it?

Asked 4 questions

Gender – Age – If I had voted early – Who I will be voting for

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Almost forgot. Math is really really hard for the opposition. Explains the lack of a budget and the deficit spending. 0care can be explained away by SinglePayer. Well, math, too.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

U2denver

Bono you are not, Bozo you are.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Ras, the only poll Hotair posters seem to trust, has Obama only down by 2. Plus his approval ratings is up to 49 again with 51 disapproving. Suddenly the wapoabc poll doesn’t seem like such an outlier.

Ric on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

cozmo ,once again you can’t debate the political points so like a mad three year old you resort to insult …not very clever ones though …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You do know what “irony” is, right?

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Almost forgot. Math is really really hard for the opposition. Explains the lack of a budget and the deficit spending. 0care can be explained away by SinglePayer. Well, math, too.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

It’s definitely in the math… I know, math is hard.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Rasmussen ,President Obama picks up two points since last week …By Hot Air definition MOMENTUM: President Obama

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I did see that and read that. I think the Obama strategy is just to not get embarrasses and save as little face they have left so he is not an absolute loser. There is nothing left to do, he can’t break 50 and I believe right now they are shredding papers at the WH and getting ready to remove all the R’s of the keyboards

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

I’m not seeing the Ohio poll at Rasmussen

Capitalist Infidel on October 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ras, the only poll Hotair posters seem to trust, has Obama only down by 2. Plus his approval ratings is up to 49 again with 51 disapproving. Suddenly the wapoabc poll doesn’t seem like such an outlier.

Ric on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Weekend poll

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ras, the only poll Hotair posters seem to trust, has Obama only down by 2. Plus his approval ratings is up to 49 again with 51 disapproving. Suddenly the wapoabc poll doesn’t seem like such an outlier.

Ric on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

That was fast.

“Obama’s only down 2 in Ohio!”

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Two new polls out that are nationwide averages (not specific state polls) are the Rasmussen poll and the Washington Post-ABC News Poll

The Washington Post-ABC News Poll has Romney at 49, Obama 48. Here is the break down:

★ Democrats sampled – 35%
★ Republican sampled – 28%
★ Independents sampled – 34%

Rasmussen has Romney at 49% and Obama at 47% — nation wide average. I can never find the in-depth breakdown… I think you have to be a paying member to do so. At any rate, here is one of their articles in part:

———————————————-
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 11 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Nationally, Romney remains at the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll)
————————————

Its all about the swing states!

papa_giorgio on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Ras, the only poll Hotair posters seem to trust, has Obama only down by 2. Plus his approval ratings is up to 49 again with 51 disapproving. Suddenly the wapoabc poll doesn’t seem like such an outlier.

Ric on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Yeah, I nearly busted a gut laughing when RAS moved NC (my home state) back to toss-up. Still trying to figure out the D+5 sample they took of us last time, as well.

Too funny.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

“Ras, the only poll Hotair posters seem to trust, has Obama only down by 2. Plus his approval ratings is up to 49 again with 51 disapproving. Suddenly the wapoabc poll doesn’t seem like such an outlier.

Ric on October 29, 2012 at 9:58 AM”

Once that approval hits 50%, it’s automatic that the incumbent wins. Now it could be weekend noise, but it could also be a trend.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:01 AM

TIPP poll will be suspended due to Hurriance Sandy.

Gallup might do the same.

Rasmussen is shifiting his pollsters outside of NJ.

Lots of polling companies based in Jersey.

sentinelrules on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

cozmo ,once again you can’t debate the political points so like a mad three year old you resort to insult …not very clever ones though …

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You have yet to prove yourself worthy of anything more.

I reserve my talents for those a couple of step higher on the evolutionary ladder than you.

It gives you a goal to shoot for. Though I don’t think you are intellectually capable.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:43 AM

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Wonder Trolls! Powers Activate!

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:02 AM

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