WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1

posted at 8:41 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of poll data to peruse today, but let’s start with the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll.  For the third straight day, it reports that Mitt Romney has a one-point lead over Barack Obama, 49/48 — but its internals tell a different story.  And one reason for that is its shifting sample, which has gotten significantly more Democratic.

The Post reports the topline numbers:

For the third consecutive day of the Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, a single — statistically insignificant — percentage point separates the two presidential contenders: 49 percent of likely voters back Republican Mitt Romney, and 48 percent support President Obama.

The parity in the contest shows up elsewhere as well: the two candidates are just two points apart when it comes to dealing with taxes, and they are three points apart on health care policy. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the sample of 1,278 likely voters.

Just outside the error margin — albeit barely — is Romney’s five-point edge on issue No. 1, solving the nation’s economic troubles. Romney’s advantage here peaked at nine points late last week (52 to 43 percent); now, the split is 50 for the former Massachusetts governor to 45 percent for the president.

Also at a slender five points, Obama ekes out an advantage on understanding people’s economic problems. This had been a point of regular advantage before Romney appeared to neutralize it earlier in the tracking poll. In the new Washington Post Virginia poll, Obama holds a 13-point lead in economic empathy, consistent with a mid-September Post poll in that key battleground state.

What’s not statistically insignificant is Mitt Romney’s lead among independents.  He wins those 55/40, an overwhelming advantage in a group that Obama won by eight in 2008 on his way to a seven-point win overall in a big Democratic turnout.  That’s a 23-point shift in the gap among roughly 30% of the electorate.

One more takeaway from this poll is the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama won the gender gap by 14 points, with a +13 among women and +1 among men.  In this tracking poll, Romney has a 2-point advantage in the gender gap, with a +10 among men and a -8 among women.

If Romney wins independents by 15, and the gender gap by 2, how can he only be leading by one overall? Simple — the Post/ABC sample has a declining number of Republicans in its sample.  Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout.  Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

The toplines are simply not credible in relation to the internals.  If Romney is winning independents outside the margin of error and has neutralized the gender gap, Obama can’t possibly be within one point overall.  Either the toplines or the internals are way off.  Even the Post’s Chris Cillizza wondered at the disconnect:

President Obama has a problem with independents. And it’s not a small problem.

In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points. …

So, what gives? Why is Obama — at least according to the Post-ABC data — having so much trouble with independents?

The answer lies in the fact that most independents are not, well, independent. Of all the likely voters who called themselves independents in nine days of the Post-ABC tracking poll, fully three-quarters (75 percent) — said they tend to lean toward one party or the other. (The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

And it’s among those shadow partisans that Obama is struggling. Ninety-two percent of Republican-leaning independents said they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.

Except, of course, that this dynamic has always applied to self-described independents, in every election.  The comparison cycle on cycle remains entirely valid, which is more than what one can say for the Post’s shifting sample.


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BISHOP!

Firecracker729 on October 29, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Gumby!

Electrongod on October 29, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Look, Obama. Tomorrow there is going to be a tidal wave hitting the East Coast. Next Tuesday, there will be another.

Batten down your hatches and polish your bayonet. Your ship is going underwater.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Simple — the Post/ABC sample has a declining number of Republicans in its sample.

ALSO, somehow WaPo has found GOP’ers under motivated relative to Dems, the first time I’ve seen this.

gonnjos on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM

What about the new battleground poll that has the race at Mitt 52 Obama 47? http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

kerrhome on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout. Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

Another invalid poll. They can’t even build a sample that passes a simple laugh test to get Obama above water. Maybe he has too many bayonets in his cargo pocket, weighing him down.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Why not go all out and just give President Obama a 7 point lead? Wooo! Comeback!

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Prepare for Gumby’s counter to this poll: the new Politico/Battleground poll. So easy to predict.

Bravesbill on October 29, 2012 at 8:47 AM

If these ultra left wing rags have Romney up by “1″ then he probably leads by significantly more.

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Oh haaaaaayyy, yo.

Ol’ ted c just voted this am! Booya! Bayonets and boats and all that.

Put that in your choom pipe and smoke it, liberals.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I spent my second weekend in Reno with a hundred California volunteers going door-to-door for the Romney campaign. We contacted thousands of Nevada Republicans and independents asking them to vote (and early if possible). Sen. Kelly Ayoute (NH) met with us Sunday morning.

I missed seeing my Giants clinch the World Series, as we were on the bus coming home … but I did get to hear the final out on the radio. We’re planning to attend the parade on Wednesday with a million other fans.

aunursa on October 29, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Sen. Kelly Ayotte

aunursa on October 29, 2012 at 8:49 AM

The 17-member crew of the HMS Bounty has abandoned ship off the coast of North Carolina. Yes, apparently, the HMS Bounty.

More news in a bit.

Ed** I just lifted this from Ace’s …….

If this isn’t prophetic, I don’t know what is.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Let’s not confuse the WaPo with an actual source of reliable information. It is an ageent of the leftist agenda, pretending now and then for cover purposes, to be objective. It cannot afford objectivity now, at the pinnacle of media deceit-the election to dismantle America for good.

Don L on October 29, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Another invalid poll. They can’t even build a sample that passes a simple laugh test to get Obama above water. Maybe he has too many bayonets in his cargo pocket, weighing him down.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM

They’re getting into the CYA mode. They will show Romney +1 regardless of how bad it gets for Obama so they can say it’s “tied” now, but later say they were “right” about Romney winning the popular vote.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 8:50 AM

I love that screencap.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Sample schmample

Obama is ahead
-lsm

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout. Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

Pretty obvious that they’re trying to keep Obama within the MOE so his base doesn’t lose all hope. They’re doing the same crap in O-I-H-O. Turnout will be close to even on Election Day and the Democrat/media complex knows it.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 8:50 AM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2224706/Crew-HMS-Bounty-forced-abandon-ship-Hurricane-Sandy-approaches.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Meanwhile, off the coast of NC, home of the DNC Convention where they have great BBQ I hear, the crew of the HMS Bounty have had to abandon ship.

Yes, you read that correctly, the crew of a Hollywood ship have had to abandon it….off the coast of North Carolina….. 1 wk before the election…..

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:51 AM

But +15 with independents?

Most polls seem gauges of something other than the candidates’ relative standings.

Akzed on October 29, 2012 at 8:51 AM

“What about the new battleground poll that has the race at Mitt 52 Obama 47? http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

kerrhome on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM”

The problem is that the actual poll has Obama +1. That’s a projection taken from part of the poll. But Obama is ahead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 8:51 AM

What’s laughable is they’re trying to keep it close to energize their voters, but it’s actually energizing their opposition. What they fail to realize is their base voters are lazy and not really interested in casting a ballot since this is not a “historic” election. Whether it’s close or a blowout, cousin pookie is staying on the couch this year.

Lost in Jersey on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

President Obama up by one in GWU/Politico poll ,an upswing iof three points in last week up by 4 in President Obama up by 4 in Virginia from this weekend WPost poll, overall President still up by two in Ohio ,so who knows who will win but the Romney momentum thing is proven false

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

aunursa on October 29, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Congrats to you, on both points ! :-)

pambi on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

New Projection: Romney 52, Obama 47
5:00 AM, Oct 29, 2012 • By FRED BARNES
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:54 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Can you put that in English please?

Bravesbill on October 29, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Um, no. Sorry. The trolls here say we’re just deluding ourselves and HotAir = the last days in Hilter’s bunker. /

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 8:55 AM

President Obama up by 4 in Virginia from this weekend WPost poll

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Try to keep up. This was already debunked in the Green Room section over the weekend:

WaPo: Obama leading in VA if …
Oct 28, 2012, 10:15am | Ed Morrissey

… Republicans have the worst turnout ever. Their likely voter sample is only 27% Republican; even in the D+6 2008 election, the electorate was 33% Republican. In 2009, when Bob McDonnell won the gubernatorial election, the D/R/I was 33/37/30 for an R+4. Has the electorate in VA swung eight points in the gap away from the GOP since McDonnell’s election? Today’s VA model of 31/27/35 is rather laughable, and confidence in the topline of an Obama lead at 51/47 should hardly be high.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM

What about the new battleground poll that has the race at Mitt 52 Obama 47? http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

kerrhome on October 29, 2012 at 8:46 AM

That’s a projection of the final results which is included in the new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll, which shows Obama ahead of Romney 49 to 48 percent.

Naturally that’s the headline the media is running with this morning – not the projection.

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I spent the last 4 days waving a Romney/Ryan sign on a busy corner near downtown Columbus, Ohio. I tood the Greyhound bus up here from Houston, Texas so I could volunteer a few days for the Team.

Mixed neighborhood: 50% thumbs up and honks for Mitt, 50% ‘F’ Yous and “O-ba-ma(s)” Had one guy try to run me over on the curb. Stood my ground. He swerved at the last minute.

LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!

ericdondero on October 29, 2012 at 8:57 AM

And Obama’s approval in the Battleground poll is 50%. An incumbent does not lose with this number.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 8:58 AM

I do like the fact the truth about so called independents not usually actually being independent is discussed in this blog,focus groups of supposed independents shown on tv especially during debates always show at least some of the participants being exposed as shams

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 8:58 AM

>Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Exactly. If that’s election day (52/47) I’ll take it!

kerrhome on October 29, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Whatever happened to pollsters getting more serious in the last couple of weeks to save face?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 8:59 AM

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/10/28/the-obama-ground-game-myth/#more-809352

The problem with this simplistic argument is easily illustrated. There are far fewer GOP field offices, but that’s because as even Kevin Drum, a writer for the left-wing Mother Jones, wrote on Friday, Republicans are operating on a different paradigm:

There’s been a disconnect in the ground games of the major parties for some time. Democrats tend to rely on paid, professional operations, while Republicans rely more on volunteer efforts, largely from evangelical churches. This is something that actually works in the Republicans’ favor, since volunteer efforts from friends and neighbors tend to be more effective at switching votes than professional phone banks. (Also cheaper.)

The other reason why Republicans are not as obsessed with turnout is that their base tends to be more highly motivated and, as a rule, are already registered rather than having to be schlepped out to the polls with great difficulty. They are instead working on convincing independents to give Romney a second look, an effort that has borne fruits as polls show their candidate gaining ground among centrists.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:00 AM

There isn’t any poll that will dampen enthusiasm, or keep Romney voters from the polls. We see light at the end of the tunnel. Now, Obama voters on the other hand, will probably roll over and go back to sleep on Nov. 6.

BettyRuth on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Whatever happened to pollsters getting more serious in the last couple of weeks to save face?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 8:59 AM

They have never had an Obama to “protect” before.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Obama is losing. Another day, another bad poll for Obama.

Democrat voters are already coming to terms with the fact that Obama will lose. They just want this whole thing to be over. They don’t have the same enthusiasm to vote this year as they did four years ago. You can’t really blame them.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

“Naturally that’s the headline the media is running with this morning – not the projection.

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM”

The media is reporting the poll result, lol.

This is one of the funnier things of the campaign. All of the Romney partisans were licking their chops and bragging when Brit Hume got confused and said the poll showed Romney +5, and kept waiting and waiting for this poll and then it drops late last night and is a total dud.

I have been right all along. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

“Obama is losing. Another day, another bad poll for Obama.”

Yeah, it’s terrible! Being up 49-48 and having an approval rating of 50%, just freaking awful.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:02 AM

doughboy ,just keep on debunking debunking ,debunking ,all it will do is debunk The President into the White House ,Virginia this weekend Washington Post President Obama 51 Romney 47,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:02 AM

There isn’t any poll that will dampen enthusiasm, or keep Romney voters from the polls. We see light at the end of the tunnel. Now, Obama voters on the other hand, will probably roll over and go back to sleep on Nov. 6.
BettyRuth on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

This is exactly right. Democrat voters reading this would agree. They know Obama is a loser, and most are ready to move on.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I have been right all along. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Bwahahahahahahahahahaha!

Tell us about how right you were in Wisconsin again.

You crack me up.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:03 AM

“Whatever happened to pollsters getting more serious in the last couple of weeks to save face?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 8:59 AM”

They are. Romney is losing.

Don’t know what you guys are going to do when the final OH polls keep showing Mitt losing. Remember back in 04, the final week is when Bush went ahead of Kerry in OH. That’s not happening this year with hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I have been right all along. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

You haven’t been right about anything all year.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Yeah, it’s terrible! Being up 49-48 and having an approval rating of 50%, just freaking awful.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:02 AM

For a Messiah..
The Won..
The God with that crease in his pants..

Yeah…it’s bad.

Electrongod on October 29, 2012 at 9:05 AM

“There isn’t any poll that will dampen enthusiasm”

McCain partisans said the same thing in 08. And the losing side always is left to spout meaningless platitudes like this.

What a fun week this is going to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:06 AM

doughboy ,just keep on debunking debunking ,debunking ,all it will do is debunk The President into the White House ,Virginia this weekend Washington Post President Obama 51 Romney 47,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:02 AM

And you keep believing that turnout on Election Day will be higher for Dems and lower for Republicans than in 2008.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:06 AM

By the end of the week WaPo will sample only Democrats and have Obama up by 1.

cajunpatriot on October 29, 2012 at 9:06 AM

An incumbent doesn’t win with an incredibly shrinking electoral map.

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 9:07 AM

The problem is that the actual poll has Obama +1. That’s a projection taken from part of the poll. But Obama is ahead.

gumbypoked on October 29, 2012 at 8:51 AM

You are too much of an imbecile to know what a MOE of 3.1 means.
And

Romney, though, is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent.

And this poll was conducted between 10/22 and 25, before the revelation of denial of calls for help three times by Barry and his gang. Something that may have resulted in a 7 points drop in Barry’s job approval rating at Gallup.

So gumby, you can go poke yourself.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Poo flinger shows up on a poll thread. Wow.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:07 AM

The Trolls are desperate. 8 days to go, Presidential Photo Ops for Sandy, and avolidance of benghazigate will not help your fallen messiah, children.

The Sleeping Giant is awake. And, torqued off.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

“Yeah…it’s bad.

Electrongod on October 29, 2012 at 9:05 AM”

Obama is leading in the poll. His approval rating is at 50%, which guarantees victory. This is getting funnier by the minute. You guys are so desperate that you’ll cling to narrowly losing as some sort of great sign.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Today’s rolling three-day average has a D/R/I of 35/28/34, which would put Republicans at seven points below their 2010 turnout and five points below their 2008 turnout.

Two days ago, the sample was D+4 at 34/30, but now it’s D+7.

Completely not credible. But maybe these Libs are just going to keep oversampling Dems until the very end because they don’t care about their credibility this time.

Besides the traitorous media is only focused right now on one thing……….their potential inconvenience because of SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNDDDDDDDDYYYYYY.

Ah the horror of it all. Matt Lauer might have to wait to get somewhere? Diane Sawyer might find her favorite cafe closed?

It’s ARMAGEDDON in the Big Apple.

PappyD61 on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

OT, but curious to know –

Is anyone here participating in Project Orca on election day for Romney?

BacaDog on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

And Obama’s approval in the Battleground poll is 50%. An incumbent does not lose with this number.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Romney, though, is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent.

And the economy threatens to derail the president as much as ever: 54 percent overall disapprove of how he’s handled the most overwhelmingly important issue in the campaign. That’s the highest level since August. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the president is handling the budget and spending. And 56 percent believe the country is on the wrong track — 48 percent strongly so.

Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of his job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent.

Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.

[snip]

Romney’s personal favorability has also continued to grow in the wake of the debates. He’s now viewed positively by 52 percent of respondents, up from 47 percent at the start of the month. Only 43 percent view him unfavorably, the lowest number since the primaries.

While Obama’s overall favorability is roughly the same, 51 percent, he finds himself underwater in the suburbs. Only 44 percent of suburban voters view Obama positively, compared to 54 percent who see him unfavorably. It’s a significantly bigger spread in rural America, but it’s offset by his 65 percent favorability in urban areas.

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:09 AM

“And this poll was conducted between 10/22 and 25, before the revelation of denial of calls for help three times by Barry and his gang. Something that may have resulted in a 7 points drop in Barry’s job approval rating at Gallup.

So gumby, you can go poke yourself.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 9:07 AM”

Nobody cares about Benghazi. And with the hurricane and the great photo ops and MSM fawning to come for Obama…

This is the end game, folks, and it’s not going well for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Obama is losing. Another day, another bad poll for Obama.

Democrat voters are already coming to terms with the fact that Obama will lose. They just want this whole thing to be over. They don’t have the same enthusiasm to vote this year as they did four years ago. You can’t really blame them.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I think that there is a effort to keep the polls close, because if it is a given that “the one” is going to lose, close downstream races in blue states and western states could really be “waved”

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 9:10 AM

avolidance of benghazigate will not help your fallen messiah, children.

The Sleeping Giant is awake. And, torqued off.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I’ll be avolidancing on the table after TFGRP loses.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Any poll that shows Romney tied or behind by 2-3, I automatically assume he is ahead by 3-5…

PatriotRider on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

They are. Romney is losing.

Don’t know what you guys are going to do when the final OH polls keep showing Mitt losing. Remember back in 04, the final week is when Bush went ahead of Kerry in OH. That’s not happening this year with hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I think it’s hilarious that you’re forced to defend a +D8 advantage. Good luck with that on November 6th!

This is going to be a fun week.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Poke your gums = Stephanie Cutter.

portlandon on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

You know what people – IGNORE IT

Seriously it’s going to to pull out all the stops to try to piss you off. Don’t let it.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Either we’re once again seeing how polling over a weekend generally grabs more Dems, or they’re purposely skewing the sample just to keep Obama within the MOE. The gender gap is nonexistent, Romney leads by 15(!) with indies…there’s no way Romney’s only up one with numbers like that. Unless, of course, you’re assuming historically low GOP turnout, which metric after metric says just isn’t happening.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

This is the end game, folks, and it’s not going well for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Look, guys, it’s starting to shout incoherently. Time for an intervention?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Nobody cares about Benghazi. And with the hurricane and the great photo ops and MSM fawning to come for Obama…

This is the end game, folks, and it’s not going well for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:10 AM

If nobody cares about Benghazi, then why have Obama’s numbers on foreign policy gone down? What do some polls actually show Romney now ahead on that issue? And the MSM is already fawning over Obama every chance they get, so I don’t see how that’ll change anything in the remaining 8 days.

You’ve been wrong on every single prediction you’ve made going back to the WI recall election. And the reason is because none of your assertions are based in reality, just what you want to see happen. If Obama is losing horribly in every poll with independent voters and Republican intensity is higher than it is for the Dems, Obama cannot win this election.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

Only problem is there is an even D/R split in the poll, which is a very optimistic scenario for Republicans.

But it’s something…

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

It is very understandable why Democrat voters have so much less enthusiasm to vote this year. Not only do they know that Obama is going to lose the election, but deep down many of them know that Romney will make an excellent president.

Republican voters, however, will walk across hot coals to ensure that Obama is removed from office.

Everyone knows that Obama is getting killed when it comes to independent voter support. For some reason, independent voters do not like Obama but do like Romney. There is really no way for Obama to win, when you consider the fact that independent voters have a strong distaste for him. What’s more, the gender gap favors Mitt.

Unless you are a proud liberal, you won’t be that excited about voting for Obama this year. And it’s not hard to see why.

This can’t be an easy time for Obama. Poll after poll has brought him almost nothing but bad news.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 9:14 AM

You know what people – IGNORE IT

Seriously it’s going to to pull out all the stops to try to piss you off. Don’t let it.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I agree…stop responding to the poll troll. I’m sick and tired of it disrupting every single poll-related thread (and the rather obvious trolling OUGHT to be ban-worthy), but no reason to feed it.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Obama is leading in the poll. His approval rating is at 50%, which guarantees victory. This is getting funnier by the minute. You guys are so desperate that you’ll cling to narrowly losing as some sort of great sign.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Know what’s even funnier little clay boy?

You claiming the boy king is going to win because his approval is up in one poll – yet you completely ignore that the same poll projects Romney winning.

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Obama is leading in the poll. His approval rating is at 50%, which guarantees victory. This is getting funnier by the minute. You guys are so desperate that you’ll cling to narrowly losing as some sort of great sign.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Wow. Talk about delusional. What poll does Romney lead in? What poll puts his approval at 50%? the only possibility for that is polls with republican participation below 2008 and democratic participation at or above 2008. Any poll with reality mixed in shows Romney winning. And even the polls set up to keep dems hopes up show it a tie. You are becoming more and more psychotic as the time goes on.

Obama is behind by 10 points with independents. Obama can’t win. It’s over gumby. I’m glad you admit that the media is biased though. First honest thing you have ever posted.

Monkeytoe on October 29, 2012 at 9:16 AM

IGNORE IT

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Sorry, its like Lay’s potato chips. Ya’ can’t just bash it once.

Not PO’ed…happy to bash the nutball.

Time for an intervention?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

No way, I want a full blown meltdown.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

Only problem is there is an even D/R split in the poll, which is a very optimistic scenario for Republicans.

But it’s something…

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Why is that optimistic? The breakdown in 2010 was R+1. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Republicans are just as eager to turn out this time(I’d argue they’ll be more so since Obama’s on the ballot) while the Dems are only slightly more motivated(again because Obama’s on the ballot).

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Gumbypokey-

I’ll ask you what I ask all of the DNC paid lefty trolls. Doesn’t it ever bother you that you must lie to make an argument? If your philosophy really were the right one, wouldn’t you be able to be honest and engage with facts instead of constant lies? Doesn’t it ever occur to you that the fact that you and all other lefties can never engage honestly in debate about your beliefs and policy preferences demonstrate to you that you are in the wrong?

I’d find it hard to support a philosophy that actively required me to lie all of the time. I don’t know how you do it. How do you tell yourself that you are with the good guys when all you do is lie?

Monkeytoe on October 29, 2012 at 9:19 AM

@ShannonBream

Amanda Rubio now home – “Her condition has stabilized and should improve in the coming days … she is expected to make a full recovery.”

Flora Duh on October 29, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

Only problem is there is an even D/R split in the poll, which is a very optimistic scenario for Republicans.

But it’s something…

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

You really are an idiot. You post the same crap on multiple blogs and websites. No one cares what you think.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Please stop acknowledging this troll.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 9:20 AM

This is the end game, folks, and it’s not going well for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:10 AM

WaPo had to crank up the voter ID another D+3 in 48 hours.

Obama now has to turn out like 2008 just to lose by one.

Yes, Mitt’s just doing awful.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Wasn’t Rasmussen’s OIHO poll last week a tie, with an R+1 sample? Looks like movement toward Romney to me.

Bravesbill on October 29, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Benghazi Barry and his ship of fools is sinking. The only way Team DumbO wins now is through fraud.

FirstBoot on October 29, 2012 at 9:22 AM

By Friday, we are going to see D +15 polls. This is so sad that these liberal pollsters have to manipulate the polls to show a close race instead of doing their jobs.

But, in their defense, at least 2 people that know nothing about polls, Nate Silver and Gumby, will always believe the non-sense that these biased polls show.

milcus on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

IMHO:

The skewed polls will cement the conservatives to go to the polls (the “skewers” are risking rallying the conservative vote)

AND

Liberals will stay home because the polls are showing Obama winning (so eh, he dont need my vote)

LANDSLIDE Romney/Ryan 2012

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

And Obama’s approval in the Battleground poll is 50%. An incumbent does not lose with this number.

er, no. lets look at the real numbers

“Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).”
that about covers every substantial segment.

I am glad michelle won’t be bummed when they lose, I hate riots

runner on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Batten down your hatches and polish your bayonet. Your ship is going underwater.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 8:44 AM

If you remember that old Obama’s speech Breitbart crew posted shortly after Andrew’s demise, Obama is very good at polishing his bayonet.

Archivarix on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

The only way Team DumbO wins now is through fraud.

FirstBoot on October 29, 2012 at 9:22 AM

And they are fine with that.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

doughboy ,just keep on debunking debunking ,debunking ,all it will do is debunk The President into the White House ,Virginia this weekend Washington Post President Obama 51 Romney 47,

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Are you okay? You don’t sound okay.

You’re saying this here, where we’re discussing the ridiculous weighing of polls that don’t reflect voter identification for 2012 which look a lot more like 2004 than 2008 in a lot of ways.

What is so hard to understand about the fact that those polls are weighted too heavily in favor of President Obama and in most cases still have him statistically tied (within the margin of error) or losing?

If this is trolling it’s a piss-poor attempt.

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 9:23 AM

that was thebattleground poll btw, not abc/wapo

runner on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

Only problem is there is an even D/R split in the poll, which is a very optimistic scenario for Republicans.

But it’s something…

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Nice try. I know you’d prefer D+10 samples but a 39/39 (E) party id is far more realistic.

And with that… Obama’s last hope goes down in flames.

FL, NC, VA, CO – gone.

Now Ohio. Say goodbye to the prizzy.

Obama/Biden now forced to defend PA, WI, MN… LOL!

kevinkristy on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

bravesbill ,can you learn to read? or debate with some kind coherent reasoning ?rather than respond to my point you try to be clever and you failed ,I type very slow because of a arm injury so I use a stream of consciousness approach which is above your pay level obviously …

So since I am sympathetic to your reading comprehension problems Bravesbill, let me repeat my political points slowly for you . It is ….. clear that nobody … at this point… knows who will … win .. …but the recent polls … show beyond … the shadow of a doubt …that the Romney momentum thing …. The GOP is pushing…. is fake …false …not true … non existent …. kaput …now Bravesbill is that …slow enough for you to …..understand …?

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

Only problem is there is an even D/R split in the poll, which is a very optimistic scenario for Republicans.

But it’s something…

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Lets get this straight. We don’t need you to give us news, we are fully capable of reading polls and their results without your so called predictions and self serving commentary.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I have been right all along. Romney is toast.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Quick… someone save it for post election! :)

dominigan on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I traveled through three states yesterday. Lots of Romney signs.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

That poll must be REALLY bad for them to come up with Romney +1. Wonder what the REAL numbers are.

GarandFan on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

U2denver on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Ironic comment of the year.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Quick… someone save it for post election! :)

dominigan on October 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Please. You think this troll is gonna show up ever again after 10PM EST on 11/6?

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Folks, we have a new record for the shortest period of time a gumby prediction has gone down in flames:

Don’t know what you guys are going to do when the final OH polls keep showing Mitt losing. Remember back in 04, the final week is when Bush went ahead of Kerry in OH. That’s not happening this year with hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I think I’ll give you guys some news you will be happy with. Rasmussen will show today in Ohio…

Romney 50%
Obama 48%

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 9:13 AM

9 minutes! Everyone give this special little guy a round of applause.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Ironic comment of the year.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Of the year? C’mon man, there have been some doosies.

I will go for incoherent comment of the year though.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

(The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

Who knows this? If I call Gallup or Rasmussen and ask them for the “pure” independent definition, they’ll know what I’m talking about..right?

The MSM still doing the best it can to pin Obama’s failure on somebody else..in this case, partisan independents.

BobMbx on October 29, 2012 at 9:27 AM

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