Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote. The question of who wins Ohio may come down to whether enough Romney voters get to the polls on Election Day to overcome the president’s lead among early voters.

Wrong – the question of who wins Ohio is entirely dependent on this SCAM that is called early voting – vote early and vote often is a Democrat strategy… the same people who voted for Obama in early voting are going to come and vote again on November 6th – how are you going to catch these crooks ? they will start crying that they are being disenfranchised if you dont let them vote on november 6th again.

To depend on the honesty of liberals and Obama voters is like depending on the fox to guard the henhouse. How the GOP has failed to counter this is beyond me.

The polls that I listed were the MOST RECENT ONES that go into the Real Clear Politics averages. No exceptions, no omissions, no bias (except maybe courtesy of Tom Bevan and John McIntyre … I do think RCP unfairly excludes some good left-of-center pollsters but at least this means any Democrat who manages to stay on top should be favored to win!)

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 4:56 PM

In florida, let’s take the CNN poll.

Here is the trend: Aug26 Obama +4, Oct18 Romney +1, Oct28 Romney +1 @ 50%.

So scratch that one for Obama.
Next one is PPP. I don’t even have to look at it. If PPP doesn’t show Obama +5, he’s doomed.
But I went and looked at it. It says that Romney leads slightly with Hispanics and by a huge margin with independents. Yet Obama is up???
Romney also leads on the economy and foreign policy.
DRI split is 43/38/19. It’s completely ridiculous. In 2008, it was 37/34/29. So Romney is going to do worse than McCain in Florida? And Dems are going to surge to well over 40% of the partisan split.

I could go down the entire list of your polls and it paints a bleak picture for Obama. Go look for yourself.

And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey

Rasmussen

Romney 50
Obama 48

This Rasmussen poll from Ohio pretty much seals the deal. If Obama can’t nail down Ohio this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

Hello?
The polls that I listed were the MOST RECENT ONES that go into the Real Clear Politics averages. No exceptions, no omissions, no bias (except maybe courtesy of Tom Bevan and John McIntyre … I do think RCP unfairly excludes some good left-of-center pollsters but at least this means any Democrat who manages to stay on top should be favored to win!)

MARCU$

If the whole idea is you beatin’ it while looking at the only poll showing obama ahead , we got it. daily kos might be the right venue for you to do it publicly :)

“Every single poll”? This is going to be fun:-) See excerpts from the Republican leaning RCP website, only the most recent polls have been included:

(Most recent poll listed first)

=============================================
COLORADO (RCP Status: Romney’s lead has now completely vanished…)

ARG Romney +1
Purple Strategies Obama +1
PPP (D) Obama +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist Tie
=============================================

=============================================
FLORIDA (Status: Romney’s lead rapidly shrinking…)

CNN/Opinion Research Romney +1
PPP (D) Obama +1
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
Gravis Marketing Romney +1
=============================================

=============================================
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Status: Obama leading again as Romney’s post debate surge has waned)

PPP (D) Obama +2
New England College Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
=============================================

=============================================
VIRGINIA (Status: the candidates are tied again @ 47.8%, as Romney’s post debate surge has completely vanished)

Gravis Marketing Tie
Washington Post Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
Purple Strategies Tie
=============================================

As for the other states, Obama’s lead has grown in Iowa (currently +2.3%, up from 1.6% immediately after the first debate), Nevada (+4.0, up from +3.7). In Wisconsin, Mitt is still stuck at -2.3% the same deficit as after the first debate. And in Ohio, Obama’s lead is now 1.9% compared to 0.8% after the first debate.

So who has the big mo again?:-)

MARCU4

Aw, don’t be silly! The liberal trolls that are gloating here would be invisible if they anticipated an Obama loss next week. You see: the big problem (for Romney, that is) is that the state polling averages are usually right… If Mitt is trailing by two per cent or more in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada it most likely means he is losing, period. McCain, Obama, Bush and Kerry almost always won those states where the final polling average was >1%+ in their favor (the only upset was Indiana in 2008).

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 3:21 PM

Loool :) I guess you know a thing or two about the retarded liberal troll minsef. Get out of here with your idiotic posts. Evey single poll shows that Mitt is ahead and he has momentum on his side as well as a turnout edge. So troll some place else.

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%.

And if you check the RCP battleground state averages, you will notice that Rasmussen underestimated Obama’s margin of victory by an average of 2.5% (vs. 1.5% by all pollsters in the RCP database). Admittedly, this isn’t a big deal in most cases since it does not matter much if the Democrat wins by 14% rather than 11.5% as predicted by Rasmussen. But Ras also got Florida (=McCain was supposedly favored to win) and Ohio (candidates tied) wrong, in addition to North Carolina and Indiana which the other pollsters missed as well. So yeah — Rasmussen Reports do tend to exaggerate the performance of the Republican candidate.

MARCU$

For the House races in 2010, please read Nate Silver’s analysis.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

As for the Senate, you will find the final polls before the election here.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

Looking at the 16 competitive and/or open seats, we notice that Rasmussen overestimated the winning margin of the Republican candidate 14 times! In three cases (Buck, Angle, Miller), the Republican candidate actually lost despite Rasmussen’s predictions to the contrary.

To be fair, this does not automatically mean Ras’ prediction was automatically bad — in many cases other pollsters got it wrong as well. But it does indicate a systematic pro-Republican bias which means Romney probably will lose Ohio next week if Rasmussen is the only pollster that thinks he is in the lead there.

> When you have polls showing Romney with a +10 with
> independents, no gender gap, and Obama up by 1?

Party identification tends to be fluid. If the pollster tries to reach a demographically realistic set of likely voters and ends up with few Republicans but many Republican-leaning independents, this might indicate an actual shift in the electorate. We will see next week who is right … I note many Democrats where whining about pollsters oversampling Republicans in 2004 as well!

> But, if you are so confident, why do you feel the need to
> come here and attempt to depress our enthusiasm? Your true
> belief – that Obama is going to lose – is displayed by
> your actions – coming to conservative blogs to try and
> diminish conservative enthusiasm.

Aw, don’t be silly! The liberal trolls that are gloating here would be invisible if they anticipated an Obama loss next week. You see: the big problem (for Romney, that is) is that the state polling averages are usually right… If Mitt is trailing by two per cent or more in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada it most likely means he is losing, period. McCain, Obama, Bush and Kerry almost always won those states where the final polling average was >1%+ in their favor (the only upset was Indiana in 2008).

MARCU$

Don’t understand how Rasmussen can say that 62% of those who have voted have voted for Obama. Have those votes been counted and where are the results?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:11

Most puzzling, especially that in states like Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party has the early voting edge.so, it’s all noise at this point.

Don’t understand how Rasmussen can say that 62% of those who have voted have voted for Obama. Have those votes been counted and where are the results?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:11 PM

They have not been counted nor will they be until Election Day. All of the polls are based on what the respondents claim. The number of people claiming to have already voted is widely inflated compared to the number of people that have actually voted early in person and the number of absentee ballots that have been returned.

giving it as a example of a god thing for O,

Allah?

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

:) maybe :)…

giving it as a example of a god thing for O,

Allah?

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

You are an entirely made up cartoon character and caricature…and btw, did you even bother to read that poll, Vomit?? It basically says that Romey has an advantage over your boy king (a turnout edge), so why are you giving it as a example of a god thing for O, when it actually shows that Romney will handily beat your boy.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

It is a data point, just like the Hispanic and African-American vote blocs.

Romney Has Added Substantially With White Vote

White Men: 2008 was R+16, 2012 is R+25 (+9)
White Women: 2008 was R+7, 2012 is R+15 (+8)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Yo that’s just racist and ignant dawg, why you bring that here?

ROTFLMAO what are you smoking dude? i LIVE in florida and i can tell you i have seen all of like 3 obama signs etc within a 20 mile radius of my home. florida is mostly military and they are breaking HARD for Romney Ryan . well military and cubans and guess what? the Cubans love Romney and Ryan too.

katee bayer on October 29, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If you live in FL you should know it is part old south, part New Cuba, part military, and largely South New York. 3 of those lean hard right, the remainder hard left, usually right prevails. That being said FL is an R +3 or so state so if Mitt is up a few points nationally then there is no way FL is at risk.