Rasmussen: Romney up 2 in Ohio, 50/48

posted at 10:41 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Has the Ohio deadlock started to break apart?  Rasmussen’s latest survey in Ohio shows Mitt Romney taking a small edge over Barack Obama, 50/48, for his first lead in the Buckeye State:

The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided. …

The candidates have been locked in a very tight battle in Ohio since August. A week ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the Buckeye State with 48% support each. This is the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race.

Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote. The question of who wins Ohio may come down to whether enough Romney voters get to the polls on Election Day to overcome the president’s lead among early voters.

Let’s take a look at the internals — which aren’t entirely cheery for Romney.  Obama wins independent voters by four with leaners (50/46), and by seven without (46/39).  How could Romney take a lead under those circumstances?  The sample is a straight-up split of 38/38/24 after Republicans’ R+1 in the 2010 midterms, but Romney’s capturing slightly more Democrats (12%) than Obama captures Republicans (9%). What’s interesting about this result is that Romney has led among Ohio independents in most other polls, yet has either trailed or tied Obama.

Romney has better news in the gender gap.  With leaners, Romney’s advantage among men (+14 at 56/42) more than overcomes Obama’s advantage among women (+8 at 53/45).  It’s closer without leaners, going from a +6 Romney advantage to a +3, but either way Romney has neutralized Obama’s gender-gap advantage.

The age demographics are also interesting.  Obama wins by 17 among voters under 40, but Romney wins the middle-aged (55/43) and senior (53/45) by wide margins.  Those latter two demos are more likely to turn out than the former.  In Rasmussen’s sample, they make up 30% of the respondents, and that may be a little too much.

Finally, the big indicator of voter behavior in a race involving an incumbent is job approval.  Obama only gets a 46/51 job approval rating, with 44% strongly disapproving compared to 29% strongly approving.  It’s 50/50 among independents, but 19/39 among those who feel strongly.

Update: Team Romney sent out this memo on Ohio a few minutes ago:

The next-to-last weekend before the election produced fresh evidence of Mitt Romney’s momentum in Ohio and bolsters our belief that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are poised to win the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes.

The state of the race in Ohio shows a dead heat, with Romney tracking toward victory on Election Day. The daydream Chicago was having a few weeks ago about Ohio coming off the board has been replaced by their nightmare of Romney momentum fueled by our ticket’s performance, our goal-shattering ground game, and an unmistakable feeling among independent voters that Barack Obama has no plan for the next four years.

Team Romney Ohio knocked on 669,534 doors over the last two weeks, and the crowds at Romney’s rallies have just been massive. We aren’t doing anything differently to promote the events; people are just organically showing up to see the next leader of the free world. The crowds know what is happening here, and so does Chicago. We can’t print walk books fast enough for people who want to elect a real leader to the White House.

We see momentum in five key areas: polling, grassroots voter contact, newspaper endorsements, events, and early-voting statistics.

1.       Polling. On Sunday, the Ohio Newspaper Organization released a survey that appeared on several Ohio front pages showing the race in Ohio tied at 49 percent. In September, the same survey showed Obama leading by five points. Clearly, Romney continues to track in the right direction in Ohio. Inside the numbers, the Ohio Newspaper poll showed Romney leading on the most important issue in the race – the economy.

“On issues driving the election, Romney’s focus on economic issues appeared successful, as 51 percent of those surveyed said he would do the best job of handling the economy, versus 45 percent for Obama. Among independents, Romney led by 18 points.”

2.       Grassroots Voter Contact. The Romney Victory operation in Ohio continues to produce an enormous number of door knocks, which are the most valuable interactions in American politics. Last week, volunteers knocked on 376,593 doors to bring our General Election total to 2,132,690. We are heavily concentrating on our “get out the vote” universe and finding that Republicans are turning out at substantially higher rates than during the 2008 early voting period, in large part because of the personal interactions they are having with our volunteers.

3.       Early-Voting Statistics. Former Bush ’04 campaign voter contact guru Adrian Gray wrote a thoughtful and thorough piece for Politico this weekend titled “Obama’s Ohio fuzzy early vote math.” In the piece, Gray writes:

“But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”

Our view of early voting continues to be that Republicans are crippling Obama’s early vote margin, which was his key to victory in Ohio in 2008.

On top of that, we believe the Obama campaign is cannibalizing its Election Day voter list during the early-voting period. Consider Karl Rove’s assessment on Fox News Sunday:

“This is an important point. If you look at Ohio, for example, 57 percent of the absentee ballot requests come from Democrats who had voted in none, one or two of the last three elections, 72 percent of the Republican absentee ballot application come from people who didn’t vote — voted in none, one or two of the last elections. That is to say the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day turnout, the Republicans are the ones who are getting the new voters out.”

4.       Newspaper Endorsements. Several Ohio newspapers are concluding that Mitt Romney would be better equipped to lead the nation for the next four years. TheCincinnati Enquirer posted its endorsement this morning:

“The No.1 issue in our region and our nation today is how to recharge our economy and get more people working in good-paying jobs. President Barack Obama has had four years to overcome the job losses of the Great Recession he inherited, but the recovery has been too slow and too weak. It’s time for new leadership from Mitt Romney, a governor and business leader with a record of solving problems.”

In addition, the Lima News endorsed Romney-Ryan this week, as did theFindlay Courier. These endorsements follow last weekend’s thumbs up from theColumbus Dispatch.

5.       Events. The Romney-Ryan ticket continues to blitz the state, turning out huge crowds in places like North Canton and Defiance. On Sunday, the ticket spoke to packed houses in Celina, Findlay, and Marion. On Monday, Romney appears in Avon Lake, and on Tuesday, Romney will speak in Dayton and Lima. The ticket is barnstorming critical places in Ohio where pumping up the margin of victory is key to recapturing the state. Judging by the crowd sizes, there’s no lack of enthusiasm anywhere in Ohio for Romney and Ryan.

It’s not just us noticing Romney’s momentum on the ground in Ohio. CBS News Political Director John Dickerson said in a post titled“Romney leaves Obama campaign on defense” that “the race feels tied in every possible way,” and that crowds “go nuts” when Romney lays out his agenda for the future.

On Sunday, ABC’s George Stephanopoulos added his thoughts to the mix (as quoted in Playbook): “Can Obama’s swing state firewall stand up to Romney’s momentum? … [Ohio poll out today] shows Governor Romney coming on very strong in that state that matters so much. It looks like a real threat to [Obama's] firewall.”

Stephanopoulos is right. Every day, Barack Obama’s so-called Ohio firewall crumbles a little bit more because of Mitt Romney’s electric appearances, our campaign’s robust ground game, and Romney’s forward-looking message that lays out a serious and specific agenda for the future.

Our opponents continue to run a negative, divisive campaign that has completely undermined Obama’s ’08 brand (especially among young voters) and left independent voters to conclude that Obama has no plan for the future. Most people are looking for a ticket that has a plan to solve problems and restore America’s greatness. In 2012, there’s no doubt that’s Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.


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Do you think Obama has started smoking yet…or will that habit not return until election night?

jstanley54 on October 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM

ellesar04 on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I recommend silk long underwear (from someplace like Eddie Bauer, not Victoria’s secret). It won’t feel bulky under your clothes, and it will keep you much warmer than the old thermal, waffle-weave stuff. You’ll still need a real out-door coat (not the nice dress-wool kind). Hats, gloves, boots, eat-muffs are a must.

Laura in Maryland on October 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM

In other Rasmussen news..

…11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin…

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

ITguy on October 29, 2012 at 11:22 AM

rik on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Respondents. A lot of young adult voters think registering is voting.

It’s why Team Barry has buses and golf carts on campuses to drive cattle to the voting booths. Finding many people who think they were done.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Pambi :)

Oh yeah turtle

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:24 AM

OT, but y’all MUST see Preezy’s answer to Mitt’s bizz experience !!!

GOD HELP US !!!
VOTE !!!!!!!

pambi on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

The Amatuer.

jazzmo on October 29, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Can we get someone from Northwest Ohio in on this?

I’m from Southeast Ohio (coal country) and it is my honest impression that we are leaning heavily Romney. I can’t really judge the rest of the state. I really wonder what effect Obama’s GM rhetoric has had on the Northwest where they have auto parts factories.

Glenn Jericho on October 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I’m in the Akron area but drive around areas near the Cleveland GM plants. The early voting figures show Obama cratering in Summit County, I think it’s the county that has swung most to the Republicans in early voting though that means it’s still a slightly Democrat county. I was in Columbus for the 2008 election so I don’t know what it looked like around here but I’m surprised at how much Romney support I see around Summit County, more than I see Obama support. The only time I’ve seen large, though still not overwhelming like 2008, support for Obama was when I had to drive through part of the ghetto in Cleveland.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 11:26 AM

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Drunk at 11:18 AM.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

while sitting on the roof of a station wagon.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Although the Akron area might be biased a bit since it isn’t hardcore Democrat like Cleveland and the Cleveland-Akron media market had the highest ratings for the first debate IIRC. Other numbers indicate it hasn’t helped Obama around here.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 11:29 AM

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Drunk at 11:18 AM.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

while sitting on the roof of a station wagon.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Why you guys gotta be jealous?

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 11:30 AM

The most under-reported poll story that i see is that gallup and ras ran voter affiliation polls showing R+1 and R+3 when you include leaners. Yet every poll including ras uses D+3 or worse. I think they are afraid to show a sample with R+anything for fear of being criticized. But if the numbers are right, every poll understates romney’s advantage by about 4pts minimum. Don’t tell DummyandDopey.

phillysfinest on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Somebody is lying about already voting. It’s either the SOS or the
respondents. The #s right now are 17% SOS to 32 to 35% for the respondents. My money is on the respondents lying , trying to get people to stop calling them and democrats actually claiming they have done something they haven’t done and never plan on doing. Who knew??
Remember when a respondent says he’s already voted that’s the end of the likely voters screen. So it’s the checks in the mail story!

rik on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

It could be that they’ve either got an absentee ballot and haven’t sent it in yet but are still saying they’ve already voted, OR they’re counting the applications the OH Secretary of State, for some odd reason, decided to send to everyone.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

************* ALERT *****************

Live Feed

Video: Romney speaks in Ohio

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on October 29, 2012 at 11:36 AM

If this thread is any indication, should Romney win those of you that have a bet with RuPoll can forget about ever seeing your money.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:38 AM

OT, but y’all MUST see Preezy’s answer to Mitt’s bizz experience !!!

GOD HELP US !!!
VOTE !!!!!!!

pambi on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

The man is really SHAMELESS

CoffeeLover on October 29, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Just not enough sandbags to hold back the seas 0 lowered.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Ohio, By The Numbers (Updated 10.29)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I was just wondering about those numbers. Thanks! (Nice blog, by the way.)

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Just not enough sandbags to hold back the seas 0 lowered.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 11:42 AM

LOL, good catch Bmore.

“Obama Fails to Stop Super-storm With Superpowers!” Film at 11.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 11:47 AM

The most under-reported poll story that i see is that gallup and ras ran voter affiliation polls showing R+1 and R+3 when you include leaners. Yet every poll including ras uses D+3 or worse. I think they are afraid to show a sample with R+anything for fear of being criticized. But if the numbers are right, every poll understates romney’s advantage by about 4pts minimum. Don’t tell DummyandDopey.

phillysfinest on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I’ve mentioned this in a bunch of threads but I do think Rasmussen was burned by going over Republican in 2010. I suspect that despite his party ID polls indicating big leads for Romney, he’ll start allowing his polls to nudge out to an MoE Romney lead this week. If other pollsters follow suit he’ll allow Romney to move out more. He doesn’t want to be the only pollster showing Romney ahead if Obama ends up winning. The indications are getting stronger that there is a tiny chance of that happening so an MoE Romney lead is safe for now, after all it was in the MoE so he wasn’t saying Obama wasn’t going to win.

It could be that they’ve either got an absentee ballot and haven’t sent it in yet but are still saying they’ve already voted, OR they’re counting the applications the OH Secretary of State, for some odd reason, decided to send to everyone.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

There were I believe 1.6 million requests for absentee ballots. I could be wrong but it was around that total. If you assume every person with one say they have voted, then that would make them 27% of reasonable expected turnout or 20% of total registered voters. Even with that, 32-35% is still way too high. Given Obama’s huge margins with most of the early voter blocks in polls and early voting numbers indicating Obama does not have large margins with early voters, it makes sense that democrats are lying about early voting and getting past the likely voter screen they would otherwise fail.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Just not enough sandbags to hold back the seas 0 lowered.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 11:42 AM

sandbags sandybags

fixed

SparkPlug on October 29, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Agree with all comments about the 32% already voted number. A highly overstated number. 5.7M voted in 2008, which would make 1.8M saying they already have.

The last report from George Mason is 1.6M ballots have been sent out with 1.0M returned.

Too many are hoping that the calls will stop coming if they say they have already voted. And if they lie about voting early are they really going to vote at all?

Since we know it is fact that those being polled are telling falsehoods to this large of an extent, why should any of the polling be trusted at all? Rasmussen can’t address that issue head on without shedding light that even his polling is suspect given that people lie, lie, lie.

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 11:49 AM

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 11:46 AM

:-)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Later, speaking with reporters, Romney said he would likely accept the presidential salary of $400,000 annually but donate the money. While governor, Romney declined his $135,000 annual salary.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-05-29-426197623_x.htm

workingclass artist on October 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Later, speaking with reporters, Romney said he would likely accept the presidential salary of $400,000 annually but donate the money. While governor, Romney declined his $135,000 annual salary.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-05-29-426197623_x.htm

workingclass artist on October 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM

That’s from 5 years ago.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Let’s take a look at the internals — which aren’t entirely cheery for Romney. Obama wins independent voters by four with leaners (50/46), and by seven without (46/39).

I find this part troubling, simply because I don’t think it is true when you look at all the data. I think we are starting to see some Dems starting to identify as Independent to shift pollster conclusions on the sample.

I’ve been polled enough to make my head spin (I’m in PA) and I can tell you I can party-identify however I choose when they ask.

goflyers on October 29, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Romney super PAC goes up in Pa.

That’s the sign you only need to know :)

Conservative4ev on October 29, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Ohio, By The Numbers (Updated 10.29)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

..SUPERB RESOURCING, MADAM! MUST READ, FOLKS!

The War Planner on October 29, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Haven’t the trolls on here said all along that the national polls didn’t matter? That it was all about Ohio polling? Well there ya go children! Done!

Rockshine on October 29, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Good polling news from Ohio!

Can Jazz Shaw please comment and throw cold water on the whole idea? Thx…

Khun Joe on October 29, 2012 at 12:10 PM

The REAL losers in this campaign is going to be NBC/MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and all of the liberal newspaper rags.

What a time they chose to be on the wrong side of history … perhaps for a generation.

Our 20-something’s have been forced into the realities of life earlier than normal thereby expanding our ranks faster than they would have otherwise (via normal aging and wising).

We all saw what resulted from standing by and letting 2008 happen to us.

We will NEVER let it happen again. The silent majority has been awakened and we WILL turn out again in 2014, 2016, 2018 ….. until we are no more.

And on that note, mark your calendars for replacing these Senators in 2016:

Alaska Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado Mark Udall (D)
Delaware Chris Coons (D)
Illinois Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa Tom Harkin (D)
Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts John Kerry (D)
Michigan Carl Levin (D)
Minnesota Al Franken (D)
Montana Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D)
New Mexico Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island Jack Reed (D)
South Dakota Tim Johnson (D)
Virginia Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D)

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Indeed. I don’t want to give up on America. I really don’t. Voting today felt great. GOTV for Mitt!

happytobehere on October 29, 2012 at 12:20 PM

So Rasmussen is the only pollster getting the battleground state polls right in 2012 whereas everybody else is mistaken?? How likely would that be? Hint: Rasmussen badly overestimated the Republican share of the vote both in 2008 as well as in 2010…

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Please add Grahamnesty (SC) to the list.

conservative pilgrim on October 29, 2012 at 12:25 PM

That’s from 5 years ago.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 12:00 PM

It is true that the article was from 2007, but Romney likely will still be doing something similar.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Good lord. Another board I frequent is freaking out because the Kiplinger Letter today says the election is Obama’s unless he messes up this week. Anyone have any insight about Kiplinger?

JenWestin on October 29, 2012 at 12:32 PM

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Where do you come up with your falsehoods?

Rasmussen’s final 2010 projections were published in the Wall Street Journal projecting that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. The Republicans ended up with a gain of more than 60 House seats and 47 Senate seats.

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%.

In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:32 PM

RuPoll’s hardest hit.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Whoops. Got the year wrong for replacing the Senators. Make that 2014.

Can’t help but notice all the D’s from Red states. Gonna have some fun!

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:36 PM

So Rasmussen is the only pollster getting the battleground state polls right in 2012 whereas everybody else is mistaken?? How likely would that be? Hint: Rasmussen badly overestimated the Republican share of the vote both in 2008 as well as in 2010…

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Who’s Marcus?

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 12:36 PM

So Rasmussen is the only pollster getting the battleground state polls right in 2012 whereas everybody else is mistaken?? How likely would that be? Hint: Rasmussen badly overestimated the Republican share of the vote both in 2008 as well as in 2010…

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM

A) Rasumssen did not badly overestimate the GOP share in 08 or 10.

B) Yes, it is more than likely that Rasmussen is correct and the other polls incorrect. When you have polls showing Romney with a +10 with independents, no gender gap, and Obama up by 1? that makes no sense unless you are assuming a better turnout for dems than 08 and a worse turnout for republicans than 08 – both assumptions very, very unlikely.

But, if you are so confident, why do you feel the need to come here and attempt to depress our enthusiasm? Your true belief – that Obama is going to lose – is displayed by your actions – coming to conservative blogs to try and diminish conservative enthusiasm. If you thought Obama was going to win, you wouldn’t need to do that. You, gumby and the rest are pissing in the wind because you know you are going to lose, but you refuse to go down without fighting, which I suppose is admirable. But a losing effort nonetheless.

Monkeytoe on October 29, 2012 at 12:47 PM

I think it was Rasmussen that had 62% of people that have already voted…….have done so for Obama.

that’s not good.

PappyD61 on October 29, 2012 at 12:52 PM

I think it was Rasmussen that had 62% of people that have already voted…….have done so for Obama.

that’s not good.

PappyD61 on October 29, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Yu’re on crack. Link to that Ras assertion.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I think it was Rasmussen that had 62% of people that have already voted…….have done so for Obama.

that’s not good.

PappyD61 on October 29, 2012 at 12:52 PM

..for Obama. Read the thread, Pappy, THEN hyperventilate if you must.

The War Planner on October 29, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Alaska Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas Mark Pryor (D)
Colorado Mark Udall (D)
Delaware Chris Coons (D)
Illinois Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa Tom Harkin (D)
Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts John Kerry (D)
Michigan Carl Levin (D)
Minnesota Al Franken (D)
Montana Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D)
New Mexico Tom Udall (D)
North Carolina Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island Jack Reed (D)
South Dakota Tim Johnson (D)
Virginia Mark Warner (D)
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D)

Carnac on October 29, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Not a lot of likely pickup there.
Not sure about Arkansas, hopefully Minn. North Carolina, South Dakota and Virgina are probably the only states with the numbers to overcome in incumbent advantage

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 51% (+1)

Obama: 46% (-1)

R +5

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:02 PM

OT: Y’all seen this? Next Tuesday will NOT be a repeat of ’08!

annoyinglittletwerp on October 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM

In 2010 I did my part in trying to get that thing out but to no avail. I voted for Harrington. Lot’s of Dems looking for a free ride there. They have a serious numbers advantage in Broward. I’m still patiently waiting for my ballot (I’m currently overseas) but guess I will have to call and see what’s up. They did email me the ballot for the County election and mailed my new voter card. So they know where I am. I will just fax it in as I did before. Just hope they’re are monitors on the fax machine as well as the booths.
If that race is really that close, it’s big news.

Al Hall on October 29, 2012 at 1:02 PM

I think it was Rasmussen that had 62% of people that have already voted…….have done so for Obama.

that’s not good.

PappyD61 on October 29, 2012 at 12:52 PM

And btw, states like Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party
has the early voting edge.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Where’s Gumby???

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 1:05 PM

I’ve predicted all along that Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while Romney takes NC.

If I’m wrong on a state, it will be FL. OH is a 100% lock/firewall for Obama and VA is 90% locked up, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Noted and saved for future reference.

(hee hee hee)

GrannyDee on October 9, 2012 at 10:49 PM

GrannyDee on October 29, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Do you think Obama has started smoking yet…or will that habit not return until election night?

jstanley54 on October 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM

He’s still smoking. He never stopped.

long_cat on October 29, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Where’s Gumby???

Grace_is_sufficient on October 29, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Preparing his spin on this poll, or well, or awaiting the axelturd teleconference that gives them the talking points on tne Ras poll. Spinning is hard and a serious matter, you know :)…

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Re: RuPoll

I even called him out about his failure to make an appearance here on another thread.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:12 PM

This irrational, poll-denying nonsense is why I have to be here.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Go deny Rasmussen on that thread.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Do you think Obama has started smoking yet…or will that habit not return until election night?

jstanley54 on October 29, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Do you really believe he ever stopped?

Al Hall on October 29, 2012 at 1:19 PM

This is potentially huge, but let’s see if Rasmussen continues to stand alone in the RCP average of polls in Ohio, or if it’s simply the first of several polls to show it. The good news is that we’ll know shortly, one way or another since pollsters are going to be finishing up their final round of polling shortly before we take the poll that counts.

Stoic Patriot on October 29, 2012 at 1:21 PM

“Clean up on isle 5, would Gutme and Urbane Eatus please come to isle 5.”
“Gutme?”
“Urbane?”

Must be on a stroke break.

OkieDoc on October 29, 2012 at 1:21 PM

“I’ve predicted all along that Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while Romney takes NC.

If I’m wrong on a state, it will be FL. OH is a 100% lock/firewall for Obama and VA is 90% locked up, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Noted and saved for future reference.

(hee hee hee)

GrannyDee on October 9, 2012 at 10:49 PM

GrannyDee on October 29, 2012 at 1:06 PM”

I think my prediction looks right on the money still. And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Man, you gotta quit huffin the cleaning chems.

OkieDoc on October 29, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Moses Romney parts the Red Sea. Path is cleared to free his people from Pharoah Obama.

ardenenoch on October 29, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I think my prediction looks right on the money still. And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:22 PM

CNN had Kerry 50/46 2 days before the election, FYI.

I don’t want you to get your hopes up here.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 1:26 PM

In Ohio, that is.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 1:27 PM

I think my prediction looks right on the money still. And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Get out of here, human vomit. CNN poll hahahahahaha :)

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:27 PM

I think my prediction looks right on the money still. And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:22 PM

ROTFLMAO what are you smoking dude? i LIVE in florida and i can tell you i have seen all of like 3 obama signs etc within a 20 mile radius of my home. florida is mostly military and they are breaking HARD for Romney Ryan . well military and cubans and guess what? the Cubans love Romney and Ryan too.

katee bayer on October 29, 2012 at 1:28 PM

This irrational, poll-denying nonsense is why I have to be here.
gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:19 PM

You are an irrational puke. Now, go choke with your own somehwere else. People mock you here, have you not noticed?

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Not “momentum”; “Rasmussen”.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 1:36 PM

New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Good job Granny Dee!

keep holding the precious little cockroach quotes from earlier in the year- I know there are a few great posters here who regularly would school the Axelrod troll.

what is hilarious is a poll came out in Florida YESTERDAY showing romney up by 6 in the I-4 corridor, the most important bellwether in the state!

and here Gumby comes back and lauds a different CNN poll.. lmao..

i bet Gumby does not even read any of the comments in these threads, just comes in and posts some trash and runs away and then comes back later with some other outlying poll..

Gallup today: Romney 51 Obama 46
Rasmussen today: Romney 49 Obama 47
GWU Politico Battleground Election day: Romney 52 Obama 47
Rasmussen Ohio: romney 49 Obama 47

I remember hearing Gumby tutor us all on the reason Jimmy Carter lost- was because he was polling “at 47 for weeks and not at 49 like Obama always does!”

AirForceCane on October 29, 2012 at 1:41 PM

I love the smell of burning concern trolls in the morning…it smells like…VICTORY!
LOL

Strike Hornet on October 29, 2012 at 1:41 PM

New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Provide an example where a presidential candidate has won while losing the independent vote by 8 points since 1972.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:42 PM

New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Still, here, vomit? Still can’t accept that your boy is losing and continue to make up polls :)….

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Dude, wipe that milk mustache off your lip.

What? It’s not milk?

eeewwww

OkieDoc on October 29, 2012 at 1:44 PM

New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Romney wins a 47/47 tie, especially in a poll even Nate Silver says skews 3 points to the Democrats.

And Romney losing crossover to Obama is a clear outlier.

Gallup:
R 51
O 46

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Guys, I hate to sound cocky, but I’m worried less about the election and more about finding a hotel for the inauguration? Oh, and having a jacket to suit the climate. Texas kinda has me spoiled on not needing 18 layers to go outside.

ellesar04 on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Oh don’t be such a wimp. I grew up in South Florida. My Dad hated anything remotely resembling cold weather. He grew up in Baltimore and talked about the Winters there like it was North Dakota, which is why he moved us to the tropics. Then I find out that the 1930′s (when he was between the ages of 6 and 16, the bulk of his youth) was the warmest decade of the 20th Century, making his tall tales of frigid weather even more laughable.

I moved to New York City when I was 20. Been here for 30 years. I don’t love Winter, and I’d never move any further north than I am now (big difference between Western Long Island-Queens & Brooklyn-, which is like the top end of the Mid Atlantic, and the mainland-Bronx & Westhchester-which is more like New England….too cold and damp). But I love Fall and Spring. Love when it’s in the 40′s during the holiday season, and you can walk around bundled up and still be comfortable.

January in D.C. can be chilly. But all you need is a long sleeved shirt, a turtleneck sweater, a wool or down coat, and a pair of gloves, and maybe a hat. Forget the scarf and the long underwear. Also, a pair of substantial shoes (Timberlands are good) and sports socks. You’ll be fine.

Enjoy the party!

ardenenoch on October 29, 2012 at 1:45 PM

I think my prediction looks right on the money still. And the CNN poll of Florida pretty much seals the deal. If Mitt can’t nail down Florida this late in the game, he’s not going to get the necessary electoral votes to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:22 PM

It’s interesting that CNN didn’t ask about early voting in its Florida poll, especially since a greater percentage of Floridians have voted early than in Ohio and Romney appears to be beating Obama handily in EV.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:46 PM

“New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Still, here, vomit? Still can’t accept that your boy is losing and continue to make up polls :)….

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM”

Yep, that poll was just made up!

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:47 PM

From RuPoll’s link…

Pew: More Republican Likely Voters

Rep/Lean Rep:

Likely to vote: 76
Unlikely/not registered: 24

Dem/Lean Dem:

Likely to vote: 62
Unlikely/not registered: 38

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/10-29-2012-2/

Romney Has Gender Gap Advantage

Romney has +7 lead with men.

Obama has +6 lead with women.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/10-29-2012-fn/

Romney Has Added Substantially With White Vote

White Men: 2008 was R+16, 2012 is R+25 (+9)
White Women: 2008 was R+7, 2012 is R+15 (+8)

“New Pew poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47% each. Romney wins indies by 8%, but is losing quite a bit of GOP crossover support to Obama.

In 2008, 90% of Republicans voted for McCain and 9% voted for Obama. In 2012, according to Pew, 6% of Republicans are supporting Obama and 92% of Republicans are supporting Romney. Since when is 6% more than 9%?

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/10-29-2012-fn/

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 2:04 PM

ROTFLMAO what are you smoking dude? i LIVE in florida and i can tell you i have seen all of like 3 obama signs etc within a 20 mile radius of my home. florida is mostly military and they are breaking HARD for Romney Ryan . well military and cubans and guess what? the Cubans love Romney and Ryan too.

katee bayer on October 29, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If you live in FL you should know it is part old south, part New Cuba, part military, and largely South New York. 3 of those lean hard right, the remainder hard left, usually right prevails. That being said FL is an R +3 or so state so if Mitt is up a few points nationally then there is no way FL is at risk.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Romney Has Added Substantially With White Vote

White Men: 2008 was R+16, 2012 is R+25 (+9)
White Women: 2008 was R+7, 2012 is R+15 (+8)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Yo that’s just racist and ignant dawg, why you bring that here?

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

A whole lot of Republicans are gonna vote for 0, cause that’s what Republicans do.

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

It is a data point, just like the Hispanic and African-American vote blocs.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 2:16 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

You are an entirely made up cartoon character and caricature…and btw, did you even bother to read that poll, Vomit?? It basically says that Romey has an advantage over your boy king (a turnout edge), so why are you giving it as a example of a god thing for O, when it actually shows that Romney will handily beat your boy.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 2:16 PM

giving it as a example of a god thing for O,

Allah?

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

giving it as a example of a god thing for O,

Allah?

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

:) maybe :)…

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Don’t understand how Rasmussen can say that 62% of those who have voted have voted for Obama. Have those votes been counted and where are the results?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Don’t understand how Rasmussen can say that 62% of those who have voted have voted for Obama. Have those votes been counted and where are the results?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:11 PM

They have not been counted nor will they be until Election Day. All of the polls are based on what the respondents claim. The number of people claiming to have already voted is widely inflated compared to the number of people that have actually voted early in person and the number of absentee ballots that have been returned.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Don’t understand how Rasmussen can say that 62% of those who have voted have voted for Obama. Have those votes been counted and where are the results?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:11

Most puzzling, especially that in states like Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party has the early voting edge.so, it’s all noise at this point.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 3:17 PM

> A) Rasumssen did not badly overestimate the GOP share in 08 or 10.

For the House races in 2010, please read Nate Silver’s analysis.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

As for the Senate, you will find the final polls before the election here.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

Looking at the 16 competitive and/or open seats, we notice that Rasmussen overestimated the winning margin of the Republican candidate 14 times! In three cases (Buck, Angle, Miller), the Republican candidate actually lost despite Rasmussen’s predictions to the contrary.

To be fair, this does not automatically mean Ras’ prediction was automatically bad — in many cases other pollsters got it wrong as well. But it does indicate a systematic pro-Republican bias which means Romney probably will lose Ohio next week if Rasmussen is the only pollster that thinks he is in the lead there.

> When you have polls showing Romney with a +10 with
> independents, no gender gap, and Obama up by 1?

Party identification tends to be fluid. If the pollster tries to reach a demographically realistic set of likely voters and ends up with few Republicans but many Republican-leaning independents, this might indicate an actual shift in the electorate. We will see next week who is right … I note many Democrats where whining about pollsters oversampling Republicans in 2004 as well!

> But, if you are so confident, why do you feel the need to
> come here and attempt to depress our enthusiasm? Your true
> belief – that Obama is going to lose – is displayed by
> your actions – coming to conservative blogs to try and
> diminish conservative enthusiasm.

Aw, don’t be silly! The liberal trolls that are gloating here would be invisible if they anticipated an Obama loss next week. You see: the big problem (for Romney, that is) is that the state polling averages are usually right… If Mitt is trailing by two per cent or more in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada it most likely means he is losing, period. McCain, Obama, Bush and Kerry almost always won those states where the final polling average was >1%+ in their favor (the only upset was Indiana in 2008).

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 3:21 PM

I don’t see how Romney can be at 50% in the Rasmussen poll if a third of voters have already voted for Obama by 62%. Romney would have to carry 57% at least of the remaining voters to reach 50%. The only explanation is that Democrats are making a huge early voting push which has already mobilized 40% of their voters. Is this likely?

breffnian on October 29, 2012 at 3:26 PM

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%.

And if you check the RCP battleground state averages, you will notice that Rasmussen underestimated Obama’s margin of victory by an average of 2.5% (vs. 1.5% by all pollsters in the RCP database). Admittedly, this isn’t a big deal in most cases since it does not matter much if the Democrat wins by 14% rather than 11.5% as predicted by Rasmussen. But Ras also got Florida (=McCain was supposedly favored to win) and Ohio (candidates tied) wrong, in addition to North Carolina and Indiana which the other pollsters missed as well. So yeah — Rasmussen Reports do tend to exaggerate the performance of the Republican candidate.

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Aw, don’t be silly! The liberal trolls that are gloating here would be invisible if they anticipated an Obama loss next week. You see: the big problem (for Romney, that is) is that the state polling averages are usually right… If Mitt is trailing by two per cent or more in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada it most likely means he is losing, period. McCain, Obama, Bush and Kerry almost always won those states where the final polling average was >1%+ in their favor (the only upset was Indiana in 2008).

MARCU$

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 3:21 PM

Loool :) I guess you know a thing or two about the retarded liberal troll minsef. Get out of here with your idiotic posts. Evey single poll shows that Mitt is ahead and he has momentum on his side as well as a turnout edge. So troll some place else.

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Minset that is…

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Ok, third time is the charm…mindset :)..

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Evey single poll shows that Mitt is ahead and he has momentum on his side as well as a turnout edge.

“Every single poll”? This is going to be fun:-) See excerpts from the Republican leaning RCP website, only the most recent polls have been included:

(Most recent poll listed first)

=============================================
COLORADO (RCP Status: Romney’s lead has now completely vanished…)

ARG Romney +1
Purple Strategies Obama +1
PPP (D) Obama +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist Tie
=============================================

=============================================
FLORIDA (Status: Romney’s lead rapidly shrinking…)

CNN/Opinion Research Romney +1
PPP (D) Obama +1
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
Gravis Marketing Romney +1
=============================================

=============================================
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Status: Obama leading again as Romney’s post debate surge has waned)

PPP (D) Obama +2
New England College Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
=============================================

=============================================
VIRGINIA (Status: the candidates are tied again @ 47.8%, as Romney’s post debate surge has completely vanished)

Gravis Marketing Tie
Washington Post Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports Romney +2
Purple Strategies Tie
=============================================

As for the other states, Obama’s lead has grown in Iowa (currently +2.3%, up from 1.6% immediately after the first debate), Nevada (+4.0, up from +3.7). In Wisconsin, Mitt is still stuck at -2.3% the same deficit as after the first debate. And in Ohio, Obama’s lead is now 1.9% compared to 0.8% after the first debate.

So who has the big mo again?:-)

MARCU4

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

mlindroo on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

If the whole idea is you beatin’ it while looking at the only poll showing obama ahead , we got it. daily kos might be the right venue for you to do it publicly :)

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 4:44 PM

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