Rasmussen: Romney up 2 in Ohio, 50/48

posted at 10:41 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Has the Ohio deadlock started to break apart?  Rasmussen’s latest survey in Ohio shows Mitt Romney taking a small edge over Barack Obama, 50/48, for his first lead in the Buckeye State:

The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided. …

The candidates have been locked in a very tight battle in Ohio since August. A week ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the Buckeye State with 48% support each. This is the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race.

Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote. The question of who wins Ohio may come down to whether enough Romney voters get to the polls on Election Day to overcome the president’s lead among early voters.

Let’s take a look at the internals — which aren’t entirely cheery for Romney.  Obama wins independent voters by four with leaners (50/46), and by seven without (46/39).  How could Romney take a lead under those circumstances?  The sample is a straight-up split of 38/38/24 after Republicans’ R+1 in the 2010 midterms, but Romney’s capturing slightly more Democrats (12%) than Obama captures Republicans (9%). What’s interesting about this result is that Romney has led among Ohio independents in most other polls, yet has either trailed or tied Obama.

Romney has better news in the gender gap.  With leaners, Romney’s advantage among men (+14 at 56/42) more than overcomes Obama’s advantage among women (+8 at 53/45).  It’s closer without leaners, going from a +6 Romney advantage to a +3, but either way Romney has neutralized Obama’s gender-gap advantage.

The age demographics are also interesting.  Obama wins by 17 among voters under 40, but Romney wins the middle-aged (55/43) and senior (53/45) by wide margins.  Those latter two demos are more likely to turn out than the former.  In Rasmussen’s sample, they make up 30% of the respondents, and that may be a little too much.

Finally, the big indicator of voter behavior in a race involving an incumbent is job approval.  Obama only gets a 46/51 job approval rating, with 44% strongly disapproving compared to 29% strongly approving.  It’s 50/50 among independents, but 19/39 among those who feel strongly.

Update: Team Romney sent out this memo on Ohio a few minutes ago:

The next-to-last weekend before the election produced fresh evidence of Mitt Romney’s momentum in Ohio and bolsters our belief that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are poised to win the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes.

The state of the race in Ohio shows a dead heat, with Romney tracking toward victory on Election Day. The daydream Chicago was having a few weeks ago about Ohio coming off the board has been replaced by their nightmare of Romney momentum fueled by our ticket’s performance, our goal-shattering ground game, and an unmistakable feeling among independent voters that Barack Obama has no plan for the next four years.

Team Romney Ohio knocked on 669,534 doors over the last two weeks, and the crowds at Romney’s rallies have just been massive. We aren’t doing anything differently to promote the events; people are just organically showing up to see the next leader of the free world. The crowds know what is happening here, and so does Chicago. We can’t print walk books fast enough for people who want to elect a real leader to the White House.

We see momentum in five key areas: polling, grassroots voter contact, newspaper endorsements, events, and early-voting statistics.

1.       Polling. On Sunday, the Ohio Newspaper Organization released a survey that appeared on several Ohio front pages showing the race in Ohio tied at 49 percent. In September, the same survey showed Obama leading by five points. Clearly, Romney continues to track in the right direction in Ohio. Inside the numbers, the Ohio Newspaper poll showed Romney leading on the most important issue in the race – the economy.

“On issues driving the election, Romney’s focus on economic issues appeared successful, as 51 percent of those surveyed said he would do the best job of handling the economy, versus 45 percent for Obama. Among independents, Romney led by 18 points.”

2.       Grassroots Voter Contact. The Romney Victory operation in Ohio continues to produce an enormous number of door knocks, which are the most valuable interactions in American politics. Last week, volunteers knocked on 376,593 doors to bring our General Election total to 2,132,690. We are heavily concentrating on our “get out the vote” universe and finding that Republicans are turning out at substantially higher rates than during the 2008 early voting period, in large part because of the personal interactions they are having with our volunteers.

3.       Early-Voting Statistics. Former Bush ’04 campaign voter contact guru Adrian Gray wrote a thoughtful and thorough piece for Politico this weekend titled “Obama’s Ohio fuzzy early vote math.” In the piece, Gray writes:

“But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”

Our view of early voting continues to be that Republicans are crippling Obama’s early vote margin, which was his key to victory in Ohio in 2008.

On top of that, we believe the Obama campaign is cannibalizing its Election Day voter list during the early-voting period. Consider Karl Rove’s assessment on Fox News Sunday:

“This is an important point. If you look at Ohio, for example, 57 percent of the absentee ballot requests come from Democrats who had voted in none, one or two of the last three elections, 72 percent of the Republican absentee ballot application come from people who didn’t vote — voted in none, one or two of the last elections. That is to say the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day turnout, the Republicans are the ones who are getting the new voters out.”

4.       Newspaper Endorsements. Several Ohio newspapers are concluding that Mitt Romney would be better equipped to lead the nation for the next four years. TheCincinnati Enquirer posted its endorsement this morning:

“The No.1 issue in our region and our nation today is how to recharge our economy and get more people working in good-paying jobs. President Barack Obama has had four years to overcome the job losses of the Great Recession he inherited, but the recovery has been too slow and too weak. It’s time for new leadership from Mitt Romney, a governor and business leader with a record of solving problems.”

In addition, the Lima News endorsed Romney-Ryan this week, as did theFindlay Courier. These endorsements follow last weekend’s thumbs up from theColumbus Dispatch.

5.       Events. The Romney-Ryan ticket continues to blitz the state, turning out huge crowds in places like North Canton and Defiance. On Sunday, the ticket spoke to packed houses in Celina, Findlay, and Marion. On Monday, Romney appears in Avon Lake, and on Tuesday, Romney will speak in Dayton and Lima. The ticket is barnstorming critical places in Ohio where pumping up the margin of victory is key to recapturing the state. Judging by the crowd sizes, there’s no lack of enthusiasm anywhere in Ohio for Romney and Ryan.

It’s not just us noticing Romney’s momentum on the ground in Ohio. CBS News Political Director John Dickerson said in a post titled“Romney leaves Obama campaign on defense” that “the race feels tied in every possible way,” and that crowds “go nuts” when Romney lays out his agenda for the future.

On Sunday, ABC’s George Stephanopoulos added his thoughts to the mix (as quoted in Playbook): “Can Obama’s swing state firewall stand up to Romney’s momentum? … [Ohio poll out today] shows Governor Romney coming on very strong in that state that matters so much. It looks like a real threat to [Obama's] firewall.”

Stephanopoulos is right. Every day, Barack Obama’s so-called Ohio firewall crumbles a little bit more because of Mitt Romney’s electric appearances, our campaign’s robust ground game, and Romney’s forward-looking message that lays out a serious and specific agenda for the future.

Our opponents continue to run a negative, divisive campaign that has completely undermined Obama’s ’08 brand (especially among young voters) and left independent voters to conclude that Obama has no plan for the future. Most people are looking for a ticket that has a plan to solve problems and restore America’s greatness. In 2012, there’s no doubt that’s Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

GumbyAndPokeMe hardest hit.

JimK on October 29, 2012 at 10:41 AM

gumme…gumme..gumme…gummee…!!!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

How can Romney lead big with independent nationally but lose them in Ohio?

mrscullen on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

You smell that? I think dumbyhoaxy just soiled himself.

Valkyriepundit on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Gumby will be here to set us straight momentarilly!

PetecminMd on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

YEAH finally.

brandozilla on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Guys, I hate to sound cocky, but I’m worried less about the election and more about finding a hotel for the inauguration? Oh, and having a jacket to suit the climate. Texas kinda has me spoiled on not needing 18 layers to go outside.

ellesar04 on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Dearest God: I know you don’t take sides in elections (or football games), but if it be your will, please let this election be over on November 6, 2012, and let Mitt Romney be the clear winner.

natasha333 on October 29, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Well, Gummee can certainly claim to be a blog hero.

JimK on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

There’s more than 20 leaks in the Ohio dam and Dutch Boy ain’t got no more fingers and toes.

Finbar on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Gotv Ohio

We need ya

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

As a relatively new Ohioan, all I can say is, YEAH BABY! It’s good to have my vote count for a change!

kscheuller on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

This poll illegitimate unless it shows 99% of Ohio voters already voting early for Obama.

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Dearest God: I know you don’t take sides in elections

Thats a Democrat lie!

Valkyriepundit on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I will eat a hat if both PA and OH fall to us early in the evening.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

gumpy is all in with another thread about the +1 obama politico poll

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Ohio is off the table for Obama.

Democrats know that they can’t waste anymore time and money on the losing battle in Ohio. The Obama campaign needs to worry about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin now.

Things aren’t looking so great for Obama, and it is no wonder that Democrat voter enthusiasm is so much lower than it was four years ago. Democrats just want this whole thing to be over.

Let’s see if the Democrats will show more respect to Pres. Romney than they did President Bush.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The “independents” in this poll seem very strange. Contrary to national trends, they support Obama by 4? And split on approval, 50-50? I don’t buy this one. Seems very fishy. And very odd that the overall result favors Romney when they almost went out of their way to get a group of indies very favorable to Obama?

jwolf on October 29, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The independent numbers make no sense. It looks like they’re undersampled, too, which makes me wonder if there are a lot more Dem leaning “independents” reflected here. 38/38/24 sounds pretty unlikely.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Still concerned about the early numbers…

Illinidiva on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Gumby will post here.

Electrongod on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Come on, Ohio, get on board for the big win.

Red Cloud on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

How can Romney lead big with independent nationally but lose them in Ohio?

mrscullen on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

It might be because Ras pushes indies to identify with a party. He had O up with indies in his last poll too.

Jon0815 on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Guys, I hate to sound cocky, but I’m worried less about the election and more about finding a hotel for the inauguration? Oh, and having a jacket to suit the climate. Texas kinda has me spoiled on not needing 18 layers to go outside.
ellesar04 on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I hear you. I’ve been worrying about the exact same thing. I’m having a hard time deciding whether I should stay an extra couple days in DC for sightseeing after Romney’s Inaugaration.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:49 AM

natasha333 on October 29, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Amen.
L

letget on October 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Obama captures Republicans (9%)

Who are these morons? Is there a decimal point missing?

0.9% would still be too high though.

mudskipper on October 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I will eat a hat if both PA and OH fall to us early in the evening.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Shades of Jetboy! (though you were careful to say “a hat” rather than “my hat” thus leaving some wiggle room to get out of this cheaply ;) )

jwolf on October 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Enough question marks Ed. . . decide and report your conclusions.

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Romney is willing indies by only 4 in this poll. Average of about 20 polls is Romney by 12.

So add another 2-3 points for Romney there.

Early voting is about 20% not 33% Add another half to 3/4 of a point to Romney there too.

And remember – Kerry won indies in OH by 19 points and still lost the state by 2.4 points.

Great shape!

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Ras has been screwy at times with some of his polls. This one seems like an outlier. Romney is dominating with indies everywhere(aside from solid blue states), so it seems very unlikely that Obama would do well with them in O-I-H-O. Any bump he’d get from the auto bailout would be more than undone by the assault on the coal industry.

It all comes down to turnout. If the partisan breakdown on Election Day is even like Ras predicts, then Obama cannot win O-I-H-O.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

“The sample is a straight-up split of 38/38/24 after Republicans’ R+1 in the 2010 midterms”

What’s changed since the midterms, troll? He’s hated more now than two years ago.

mudskipper on October 29, 2012 at 10:52 AM

I will eat a hat if both PA and OH fall to us early in the evening.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

JetBoy might have a recipe or two for ya?

hoosiermama on October 29, 2012 at 10:53 AM

“Dearest God: I know you don’t take sides in elections . . . ”

Thats a Democrat lie!

Valkyriepundit on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Perhaps, but my God is Jesus Christ. I’m pretty sure Dems worship at least two different gods, Obama and Gaia — with lipservice to Allah just to keep muslims happy.

natasha333 on October 29, 2012 at 10:53 AM

God loves us.

Oink on October 29, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Dearest God: I know you don’t take sides in elections (or football games), but if it be your will, please let this election be over on November 6, 2012, and let Mitt Romney be the clear winner.

natasha333 on October 29, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Amen.

Btw I never knew he didn’t take sides. That explains the NYJ game.

magicbeans on October 29, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The internals are *insane* in this poll.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Agree. Romney’s lead with independents is averaging 10-15 points in most Ohio polls, so Rasmussen clearly polled far too many Democrat leaning independents.

When properly adjusted for independents; Romney’s lead should 5-6 points.

Norwegian on October 29, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I will eat a hat if both PA and OH fall to us early in the evening.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Or, go ahead and order.

You know you want to.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Romney only wins indies by 4 in this poll. Average of all the polls is about 12.

Early voters oversampled by about 50% – which also helps Obama.

So it’s not insane in the way that helps you.

Not a good poll for you at all.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Yeah, we do. The internals seem to shift one way and then the other. Obama capturing that many Republican votes is silly, and the Independent numbers don’t make sense when compared to the national numbers, so I’d say that the numbers would look even better for Romney.

ShadowsPawn on October 29, 2012 at 10:56 AM

….and Gum-Gum clutches his Obama Bobblehead Talisman for good luck.

ziggyville on October 29, 2012 at 10:57 AM

“How come no polls have shown Romney leading in Ohio?”

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Early voting is a sham and should be shut the hell down.

Defenestratus on October 29, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I don’t know if I buy this one. Even split for party ID would be a hell of a thing for us to pull of in a presidential election. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I just think it’s more likely we’ll see a D+3 or so in Ohio.

But you never know. Rasmussen is one of the better pollsters so… maybe we’ve got a shot at Ohio after all.

If I lived in or near Ohio, I’d be volunteering to go door-to-door, phone bank, whatever it takes. This one will be a squeaker, folks.

Caiwyn on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Still concerned about the early numbers…

Illinidiva on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

As am I. I wonder if the 63% lefties are planning on voting at least once more on the day?

OldEnglish on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Yeah. Don’t concern yourself. But maybe you want to take a look at the Battlground Poll and get back to us.

:)

jazzmo on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I am here in Ohio and am very familiar with the early voting and how it plays into the overall vote. I can tell you with absolute certainty that Obama will not have nearly the advantage in early voting that he enjoyed in 2008. There are a lot of reasons for this-the improved GOP ground game, the fact that dems have lost 250,000+ registered voters in ohio(most of them in Cuyahoga County). I suspect that Obama goes into Nov 6 around a 70-80K advantage, whereas he had a 265K advantage in 2008. The fact that a lot more Republicans will vote on Election Day than in 2008 gives Romney a big advantage. I think Romney wins Ohio by similar margin as that of national vote 4-5%.

Ta111 on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Rasmussen has been strange in this election. It’s like they are trying to not upset liberals.

Romney is not down with independents. And several of the other numbers seem strange. Overall, I think the final number in Ohio will be Romney 51, Obama 49.

milcus on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

…it’s good to see that you are not too concerned lately!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM

All of the polls seem very strange this year. When was the last time this close to an election that one polling outfit had candidate Y up 4 with independents while every other poll shows candidate X up 10 with independents?

I have a feeling that this election may require a re-calibrating of how polling is done. Someone is going to be way off the mark come election-time and have to work hard to rebuild their reputation.

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Yes, I agree that the internals don’t make sense. but other polls also don’t make sense. How, for instance, is it possible for Obama to be up 1 in Ohio while losing independents by 10 and dead even on the gender gap? That is also insane.

I independents are +10 for Romney and the gender gap is roughly even, the only way Obama wins Ohio, or nationally, is if he has a Dem turnout meeting or exceeding 2008 while at the same time republicans have a turnout as low or lower than 2008. Possible, but not likely.

Monkeytoe on October 29, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Last night, the President ran spots that continue to charge that Romney will raise taxes on the middle class while giving tax breaks to high earners. With so many having watched the debates in which Romney very convincingly explained how his tax proposal would do no such thing, I think folks are seeing though the lies.

The 9% question? Sadly, it might be founded in religion to a great extent. A whole lot more folks here know that Romney is a Mormon than are aware that the President wears a ring committing himself to Allah. I don’t think the Mormon religion is very well understood in these parts and guess it would be a problem for some voters.

EconomicNeocon on October 29, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Romney up

Or, as the MSM calls it… ‘a toss up’

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 11:01 AM

How can Romney lead big with independent nationally but lose them in Ohio?

mrscullen on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

He’s winning indies big in every other Ohio poll except the screwy CNN. Not sure what’s up with Rasmussen this year, I still think he was burned by 2010 and doesn’t want to go far out on the ledge this time.

Guys, I hate to sound cocky, but I’m worried less about the election and more about finding a hotel for the inauguration? Oh, and having a jacket to suit the climate. Texas kinda has me spoiled on not needing 18 layers to go outside.

ellesar04 on October 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Come now, when I grew up in Texas we needed 18 layers to go outside when it was 60 :P.

jarodea on October 29, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I hear you. I’ve been worrying about the exact same thing. I’m having a hard time deciding whether I should stay an extra couple days in DC for sightseeing after Romney’s Inaugaration.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:49 AM

You could stay and help with the cleanup?

Cleombrotus on October 29, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Did the people celebrating this poll even read Ed’s writeup? The internals are *insane* in this poll. I mean, go with it I guess. But, this doesn’t concern me.

libfreeordie on October 29, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Weren’t you just recently making fun of people analyzing internals.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I hear you. I’ve been worrying about the exact same thing. I’m having a hard time deciding whether I should stay an extra couple days in DC for sightseeing after Romney’s Inaugaration.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Or do perimeter guard duty.

Cleombrotus on October 29, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Comzo, that actually looks good.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Most Halloween events were this weekend in OH.

Rasmussen missed a lot of people with kids, since trick/treat coincided around dinner times yesterday.

If the indie tilt changes back to Romney, you’ve got your answer.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Comzo, that actually looks good.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Tell me about it…I kept the recipe.

Ya’ never know when you will need a hat like that.

Are you reading jetboy?

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Yep, it’s over, we’re doomed. 0 is on the glide path to victory now. Give up! It’s over! Submit!

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I read somewhere (Politico I think), that even with O’s early vote advantage, he has 200,000 less votes in the bank than he did at the same time in ’08

Tater Salad on October 29, 2012 at 11:07 AM

The only [poll that matters is a week from now.

There is plenty of time for this thing to go south.

The crawl over broken glass to bring this thing home starts now.

No celebrating until Allahpundit unleashes the Hump Bot.

Bruno Strozek on October 29, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Obama captures Republicans (9%)

Who are these morons? Is there a decimal point missing?

0.9% would still be too high though.

mudskipper on October 29, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Most likely, they are mind fockers like me. Every time a poll calls, I say that I’m a dyed in the wool Latino Democrat who decided to go all-in for Romney this time.

Archivarix on October 29, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Why isn’t Rasmussen polling PA?

Tater Salad on October 29, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Defenestratus on October 29, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I don’t totally disagree…never understood the logic behind it myself, since in some ways it leads to more problems that it solves…especially in the way votes are tallied, both for polls and for the actual race itself.

BlaxPac on October 29, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I can see my shoe up Obama’s ass from here.

The Count on October 29, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Has Obama hit 50% in Ohio in months?

Baby this victory will be sweet. Just early voted, felt awesome. Totally different than the sucky feeling in 2008. This time I felt happy and proud throughout.

Let’s do this!

happytobehere on October 29, 2012 at 11:10 AM

An enchanting sound is calling to Obama……..

portlandon on October 29, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Most of Obama’s early voters are people who would have voted on election day anyway. They are not new voters. They voted early to defend Obama.

The GOTV early voting efforts from the Romney campaign targeted new voters and those who stayed home in 2008. Most of the Romney voters are waiting patiently for Nov 6.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I read somewhere (Politico I think), that even with O’s early vote advantage, he has 200,000 less votes in the bank than he did at the same time in ’08

Tater Salad on October 29, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Square that with the net change of 240,000 voter registration change since 2008 it makes sense. But this is only in the early votes and he’s down that much?

I was thinking Romney +3, now I think others may be right to say Romney +5 or +6. I’m sure there may be other factors I’m not considering, but I already called Ohio for Romney this weekend.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Shopping list for election night:

Bullitt bourbon……………………………………………………………check
Left over Halloween candy……………………………………………………..check
Chips………………………………………………………………………………………check
“Cry me a river” tissues for my Dem neighbors in Michigan…..check

All that is left is the voting, the Romney win and the inevitable rioting of Obama-phone owners here in the Detroit area. Thank God Halloween and Devils Night will have caused most of the abandoned homes in Detroit to already have been burned to the ground. Otherwise the fires may not be manageable with city cut backs this year.

mechkiller_k on October 29, 2012 at 11:11 AM

It’s not hard to explain the independent split. Repub-leaning independents are now calling themselves Republicans instead of independents. Thus, fewer independents which are more favorable to O, but more Republicans in the split. Looks like R is winning just enough Reagan Democrats to win Ohio. This shouldn’t be surprising. There are many white working class folks who are Dems, but still watch enough Fox to have heard about the Benghazi fiasco. Bailout or no bailout, these guys are not going to vote for a guy who left our boys in Benghazi hanging.

And before the libs start telling you that Rasmussen is R-leaning:
1) He’s been less favorable to R than Gallup has been this cycle.
2) PPP is what exactly? And you are still counting them?

xuyee on October 29, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I can see my shoe up Obama’s ass from here.

The Count on October 29, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Red Foreman could not be reached for comment.

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I will eat a hat if both PA and OH fall to us early in the evening.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I hope you don’t have to; but, if you do, JetBoy has a set of recipes for everything from Boiled Fedora to Hat Florentine.

massrighty on October 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM

OT: Y’all seen this? Next Tuesday will NOT be a repeat of ’08!

annoyinglittletwerp on October 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Can we get someone from Northwest Ohio in on this?

I’m from Southeast Ohio (coal country) and it is my honest impression that we are leaning heavily Romney. I can’t really judge the rest of the state. I really wonder what effect Obama’s GM rhetoric has had on the Northwest where they have auto parts factories.

Glenn Jericho on October 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots.

This number hasn’t changed in weeks and, more importantly, looks very fishy. There are 7.7 million registered voters in Ohio. If 32% of registered voters have already voted, then there should be 2.464 million ballots already received. As of 27 October 2012, only 1,006,398 have voted in person early or returned their absentee ballots. That’s only 13.1%.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

I think a lot of people are telling pollsters that they already voted to get them off of the phone.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:14 AM

natasha333 on October 29, 2012 at 10:53 AM

He may not “take sides” but He’s always intimately involved in EVERYTHING. We simply seldom know the how’s and the why’s.

This particular election’s got me going back and forth a lot. The outcome’s gonna settle a few things in my mind, I can tell you that.

Cleombrotus on October 29, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I should prepare for lung cancer. I will smoke many, many victory cigars in the night of Nov 6th…

Valkyriepundit on October 29, 2012 at 11:15 AM

What to watch for this week

Obama is supposed to be in Akron and Cincy on Halloween, Wednesday.

Both areas have cratered for him since ’08.

If he bails and blames Sandy, then he’s doing a 2010 and letting his surrogates hit the ground while he keeps distance.

IMO, he shows at one. I’m guessing Akron since it was an urban stronghold, and Romney has has been devouring the surrounding burbs.

But if he bails, NYC better be Waterworld, or everyone in OH will know why he jumped ship.

And Biden/Clinton in Youngstown is very telling about how weak his support is among the ‘burbs in that area. He’s trying to get Bill to cajole some whiteys into voting Barry again, but it’s too late.

Obama’s hope is pinned to college students and over-performance in urban areas.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 11:15 AM

9% of Republicans voted for Barry in this poll? The only way that could happen was some responders lied about their party ID.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I can see my shoe up Obama’s ass from here.

The Count on October 29, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Red Foreman could not be reached for comment.

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Will have to save this one for if WI goes R/R. LOL!

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Even the Rasmussen poll has way overstated early voting. 32% have already voted? How can that be when it’s only 17.4%? According to Rasmussen the early voting will surpass that of 2008 by over 200,000. There have been 1,006,398 early votes so far. In 2008 there were 1,635,676, for the early voting to be correct according to this poll than 1,847,608 will have to be cast.

I believe that Romney is actually up by 4 to 5 points since the early voting is massively overstated.

Capitalist Infidel on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Most stunning #s in Ras OH are from the issues: R +12 on economy, +8 jobs, +10 nat’l security, 8 energy. Inflated early voter #s saving O.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Ot:
Dear leader calling for secretary of business via drudge

Cripe

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

The best thing for Romney would for him to be ahead in Ras, PPP, IBD, GAllup and all the network polls. Lying to pollsters accomplishes the exact opposite.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:39 AM

portlandon on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

OT, but y’all MUST see Preezy’s answer to Mitt’s bizz experience !!!

GOD HELP US !!!
VOTE !!!!!!!

pambi on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

The funniest part is that Romney is BEHIND indies in most other polls and this poll isn’t counting those that already voted Obama of whome there are many. People don’t want a guy that puts a dog on the roof of his car, or anything else for that matter.

Romney “closing the gender gap” is another head-fake as R-3P0 has not yet figured out a way to transform himself into a women to “connect” with women voters while still remaining a man.

R3P0 is right to make ad buys in other states like PENN and WI, because Ohio is doubling down with Baracky.

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Can it be????Undecideds breaking for the challenger???I am looking way out there what do i see?? Could it be a big Conservative wave forming way out there ?I remember Carter Reagen .Sept Carter up by 7% or 8% Oct.real close then about 12 days before the election Reagen started moving up and by election day a big wave was here.

logman1 on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I like Rush’s statement—-Not momentum rather it’s Mittmentum!

Herb on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Ot:
Dear leader calling for secretary of business via drudge

Cripe

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Just what we need.

More government oversight.
/

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 11:19 AM

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Such great minds, and all that .. LOLOL

pambi on October 29, 2012 at 11:19 AM

9% of Republicans voted for Barry in this poll? The only way that could happen was some responders lied about their party ID.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Public Sector. Police/Fire/Teacher and/or spouses who usually vote R, but won’t because of Kasich/Pension/Stimulus. Job security.

I’m banking they’ll stay home in the end. Barry’s not counting on their support.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 11:19 AM

me thinks axelturf stood outside Rasmussen’s car when he came out to the parking lot with a tire iron and pointing at his knees

audiotom on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Somebody is lying about already voting. It’s either the SOS or the
respondents. The #s right now are 17% SOS to 32 to 35% for the respondents. My money is on the respondents lying , trying to get people to stop calling them and democrats actually claiming they have done something they haven’t done and never plan on doing. Who knew??
Remember when a respondent says he’s already voted that’s the end of the likely voters screen. So it’s the checks in the mail story!

rik on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Drunk at 11:18 AM.

nitzsche on October 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3