Obama up 1 in Politico/GWU poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama has taken a one-point lead, with a three-day, three-point swing in his favor, in today’s Politico/GWU Battleground tracking poll – but once again, the internals tell a different tale.  Eight days out from the election, independents still favor Mitt Romney, and the gender gap is still neutralized.  James Hohmann reports on the topline:

With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.

But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.

The sample in this case is a little better than the earlier WaPo/ABC tracking poll, but still questionable.  The D/R/I is 35/31/33 for a D+4, an arguable case, but one which considers a lower Republican turnout than even 2008.  The topline looks even more odd when looking at the internals, however.

For instance, Romney wins independents by 10 points, 50/40.  When broken down into soft/hard partisan and ticket-splitter categories, Romney’s lead increases to 16 among ticket-splitters, 50/34.  Romney also has neutralized the gender gap in this poll, winning men by 12 (55/43) while losing women by 11 (43/54).

There’s something interesting in the age demos, too. Romney wins all of the age demos above 34 years of age by majorities, albeit thin until one gets to seniors (55/42).  But the sample of likely voters has more respondents below 34 years of age (218) than seniors (217).  That did happen in 2008, according to exit polls, but it’s not likely to happen this time around, not with the enthusiasm levels rising among seniors and dropping among younger voters all year long.

Ed Goeas gives a cheerful prediction of a five-point Romney win based on this data:

In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.  These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education.  In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%.  While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.

If Romney wins independents by 10 and keeps a virtual tie in the gender gap — a consistent finding in all of these polls — then that’s what I see coming, too.


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Well gee, I guess it’s all over!

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Katie bar the door.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:05 AM

try as you might to paper over it, pollsters, Obama loses no matter how you slice it.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

There’s something interesting in the age demos, too. Romney wins all of the age demos above 34 years of age by majorities, albeit thin until one gets to seniors (55/42). But the sample of likely voters has more respondents below 34 years of age (218) than seniors (217). That did happen in 2008, according to exit polls, but it’s not likely to happen this time around, not with the enthusiasm levels rising among seniors and dropping among younger voters all year long.

So again we have a poll skewed toward a 2008-style turnout in order to keep Obama competitive. At least this time they got a little more creative and used the age gap instead of oversampling Dems to put Obama up 1.

Bottom line, Romney has this in the bag if we show up to vote.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

A poll the 0bamatrolls will like. They can’t read very well, but their supervisor explains the headline to them.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:06 AM

gumpy prematurely ejaculates once again.

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I voted today!

BAM!

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

But the sample of likely voters has more respondents below 34 years of age (218) than seniors (217).

Oh yeah, that ratio is going hold up on election day.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

OHIO: R 50% O 48%… Developing…

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Drudge has a developing headline with Romney leading in Ohio 50 to 48. We’ll have to see what the internals look like. Being a former Ohioan with family still there I’m not concerned, but we’ll have to see if the trolls will acknowledge it or if they’ll dismiss it just because of the split not being D+8.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

So Obama is surging in Rasmussen and Battleground, good to know.

And Ed Goeas is a Republican trying to spin a bad poll and make gold out of it.

Mr Hume was misleading at best when he said the poll showed Romney +5. It does no such thing.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I guess I should just vote for Obama then?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I expect to see as many lib polls as possible try and drive the comeback meme of Obama to try and suppress and influence the low info people who may want to just go with the perceived winner to be. Get ready for this. It’s going to be a loooong week!

Rockshine on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Katie bar the door.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I haven’t heard that saying in years. My Grandma used to say that all the time.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Is five points enough to overcome the inevitable Dem cheating?

I suspect, this time, it may not be.

Siddhartha Vicious on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

They’re hinging it all on 2008 turnout numbers? ROFL…I don’t think the ‘rats understand just how motivated people are to get to the voting booth this year.

I would wade through pokeme’s pile of dirty laundry to vote if I had to, and from what I understand that is considered worse than having a picnic at Fukushima.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

obamamentum, eleventy 11!!1

runner on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

Whoa!! At this stage, “extremely likelies” or “10′s” are your likely voter model. If someone, a week out from E-Day, has any doubt of whether they are voting… they are not voting.

This points to landslide…

JohnGalt23 on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

“I expect to see as many lib polls as possible try and drive the comeback meme of Obama to try and suppress and influence the low info people who may want to just go with the perceived winner to be. Get ready for this. It’s going to be a loooong week!

Rockshine on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM”

So now Battleground is a liberal poll, lol? Oh yeah, it’s got Obama ahead now.

It used to be one of the favs around here!

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

my uncle used to say that too, hawk..

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Gumby, serious question. If President Obama loses the popular vote by 2 points or more will you admit your analysis was wrong?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

won’t be close

DanMan on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

He can’t help it, he’s old.

Sorry hawkdriver, old habits die hard and I forgot.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

So Obama is surging in Rasmussen and Battleground, good to know.

And Ed Goeas is a Republican trying to spin a bad poll and make gold out of it.

Mr Hume was misleading at best when he said the poll showed Romney +5. It does no such thing.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Trailing by 2 in Rasmussen is surging? And he’s been down in that poll for over a week now.

As for the Battleground poll, did you even read Ed’s breakdown? Obama is losing by double-digits with indies. And this poll also assumes a D+4 turnout which isn’t impossible, but is unlikely. So essentially Obama can barely win the election if young people show up in droves and older voters don’t which no one is projecting this time around.

We’re gonna miss you, jame gumb, once these next 8 days are over.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

“They’re hinging it all on 2008 turnout numbers? ROFL…I don’t think the ‘rats understand just how motivated people are to get to the voting booth this year.”

This poll doesn’t use the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Look for the leftest to increase Barry’s “lead” right up to the election. But don’t look for the poll internals. They’ll stop posting those.

GarandFan on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

+1 in a poll with a MOE of 3.1 is not a lead. A +10 for Romney among Indies is significant.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Mr Hume was misleading at best when he said the poll showed Romney +5. It does no such thing.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

52/47 is the projection and it’s reasonable.

Considering Gallup’s party ID of R+1 and Rasmussen’s R+2.6 nationally, split the difference at 1.8 and add it to Politico’s D+4 with Romney down 1 and you get a Romney 5 point win.

Q.E.D.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:12 AM

So Obama is surging in Rasmussen and Battleground, good to know.

And Ed Goeas is a Republican trying to spin a bad poll and make gold out of it.

Mr Hume was misleading at best when he said the poll showed Romney +5. It does no such thing.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I guess I should just vote for Obama then?

er, not exactly. Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners is a Democrat. so i guess she is spinning as well….lolz!

runner on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Mistah Scowly Face

scary to the wimminses voters.

looks mean.

looks Chicago.

looks basketball.

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

52-47 sounds about right.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

If the country is evenly split, as it has been for decades…how, with a double digit lead in independents, can Romney not be leading in every poll?

No democrat has answered that question…all we have heard the past 30 years, independents will decide the election…except when the polls don’t support what they “feel”…

right2bright on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

So Obama is surging in Rasmussen and Battleground, good to know.
gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I thought you were a Romney fan? You know “big social con,” “wanted Santorum.”

Dirt McGirt on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

“They’re hinging it all on 2008 turnout numbers? ROFL…I don’t think the ‘rats understand just how motivated people are to get to the voting booth this year.”

This poll doesn’t use the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

But the sample of likely voters has more respondents below 34 years of age (218) than seniors (217). That did happen in 2008, according to exit polls, but it’s not likely to happen this time around, not with the enthusiasm levels rising among seniors and dropping among younger voters all year long.

It does use the 2008 model in terms of the age breakdown. Nice try though.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

*crossing fingers*

Go Mitt

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

This poll doesn’t use the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Nor does it use the 2012 turnout model, which would have Romney winning.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

“As for the Battleground poll, did you even read Ed’s breakdown?”

Did I read his trying to bury the topline number, the one where someone wins and someone loses? Yeah, I read it, and think it’s more partisan spinning.

Face the FACTS. Romney lost ground in this poll and lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

“They’re hinging it all on 2008 turnout numbers? ROFL…I don’t think the ‘rats understand just how motivated people are to get to the voting booth this year.”

This poll doesn’t use the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

What about D+4 did you not understand?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Romney is +10 in the Battleground states in this poll.

sentinelrules on October 29, 2012 at 10:15 AM

gumpy prematurely ejaculates once again.

Animal60 on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM

…started ‘coming’ at 10:08 AM…10:10 AM…and 10:11 AM…that’s not premature…or excessive yet…

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I would wade through pokeme’s pile of dirty laundry to vote if I had to, and from what I understand that is considered worse than having a picnic at Fukushima.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Heck I’d even give Al Franken a hug if that is what it took for me to be able to vote.

That should say it all.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

It has been said many times before:

We need to make sure that we don’t simply win; we need to make sure it is a knockout!

Let’s make sure that our margin of victory over Obama is outside the MOC a.k.a. margin of cheating. I don’t trust the Democrats one bit. Let’s kick Obama out with a humiliating, deafening blow that will be heard around the world.

Obama deserves nothing less.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

““They’re hinging it all on 2008 turnout numbers? ROFL…I don’t think the ‘rats understand just how motivated people are to get to the voting booth this year.”

This poll doesn’t use the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

What about D+4 did you not understand?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

D+4 is not the 2008 turnout model.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

gumby wins the coveted bagdad bob award for today, an it’s only 10 am. awesome.

runner on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

…started ‘coming’ at 10:08 AM…10:10 AM…and 10:11 AM…that’s not premature…or excessive yet…

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM

…opps!…and 10:14 AM…start snaking the drains in moms basement!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

He can’t help it, he’s old.

Sorry hawkdriver, old habits die hard and I forgot.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

It brought back great memories.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Gumby, serious question. If President Obama loses the popular vote by 2 points or more will you admit your analysis was wrong?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Serious question…Do you really care?

That poster is a joke, he/she is wrong on most every issue, and when finally confronted with facts, runs and hides until they can post on another thread…

A foolish little poster she is, and not too bright…if you ask a “serious” question of her, that puts you in the same category as her.

She is here to laugh at, to make fun of, she’s our jester, clown, and no one takes her serious.

right2bright on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Face the FACTS. Romney lost ground in this poll and lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Nope.

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Politico: Obama favorability ratings down, including going from +9 with independents to -12 today. In battleground states: from +2 to -6.

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Politico poll: Tied nationally. Romney goes from +2 in battleground states to +10 today. And from -2 with independents to +10 today.

Just more poll shenanigans to eek out a 1 pt Obama lead. Obama lost a ton of ground here.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

So now Battleground is a liberal poll, lol? Oh yeah, it’s got Obama ahead now.
It used to be one of the favs around here!

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Battleground poll: Romney 52, Obama 47

I’m feeling bad again.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Hey, can we get a story on the Battleground poll that has Romney up 52-47?

Rockshine on October 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Obama cratering:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Expand the Map… RT @jmartpolitico Romney SuperPAC going up tmrw across PA w $2.1M buy, including Phila market http://www.politico.com

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

right2bright on October 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM

…started ‘coming’ at 10:08 AM…10:10 AM…and 10:11 AM…that’s not premature…or excessive yet…

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM
…opps!…and 10:14 AM…start snaking the drains in moms basement!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

…10:17 AM…there’s sperm everywhere!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM

OHIO: R 50% O 48%… Developing…

ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:07 AM


YEAH!

22044 on October 29, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama settles in on a 2.25:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Sun: 2.25:1
Mon: 2.25:1

The odds of an Obama victory holds steady. The electoral college tells the story. Obama has two pathways to a second term:

Path #1: Obama wins Ohio
Path #2: Obama wins 33 electoral vottes from the following swing states: Wis (10), Iowa (6), Nev (6), Colorado(9), NH (4), & VA (13)

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://www.cm-life.com/2012/10/28/prediction-markets-see-obama-as-moderate-favorite/

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Heck I’d even give Al Franken a hug if that is what it took for me to be able to vote.

That should say it all.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Yuck! Having that dirtbag with his hands all over you?

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Yuck! Having that dirtbag with his hands all over you?

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

If it was between that and voting – I’d suffer.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM

What, historically, has the record been on poll accuracy AFTER the election? Are they a realistic measure going in?

Cleombrotus on October 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM

It brought back great memories.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Dangit woman!

You were supposed to strike that first part.

I told the rotorhead hawkdriver that I would stop pickin on him.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:22 AM

‘Just more poll shenanigans to eek out a 1 pt Obama lead. Obama lost a ton of ground here.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:18 AM”

What shenanigans? People were asked who they would vote for and they answered. The split was D+4, which is a point higher than I think the final result will be, but it’s not way out of whack.

What was dishonest about this Battleground poll? They have never been known to push poll or do anything that isn’t above board before.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM
ted c on October 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I picked it up from an Apache Pilot friend who on our missions, would use that saying with a target rich environment. After a while, he had the Blackhawk CEs and DGs saying it and then everyone was saying it.

hawkdriver on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…

jnelchef on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Path #1: Obama wins Ohio
Path #2: Obama wins 33 electoral vottes from the following swing states: Wis (10), Iowa (6), Nev (6), Colorado(9), NH (4), & VA (13)

No to #1, I’m convinced of that as of last week. No to #2 as well. I would concede Nevada and Wisconsin at best to Obama, but all six? Snowball’s chance….

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:24 AM

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Good for you zippy, you stick with that.

If you are really sure, bet the farm on it.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

“Must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…

jnelchef on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM”

So now even Battleground is part of the polling conspiracy?

Yep, Obama is winning.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…must keep pushing the RCP average to the left…

jnelchef on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

LOL! Yes, I see that as well.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

A sports betting site. Your final hope? HA HA HA.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 10:26 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

SANTORUM!!!

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 10:27 AM

OHIO: R 50% O 48%… Developing…

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

We don’t have the ability to think for ourselves, that’s what government is for, silly goose; thanks for the advice though.

Bishop on October 29, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Face the FACTS. Romney lost ground in this poll and lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Might as well not even show up to vote, then!

Good Lt on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

The “Politico/GWU” poll you say . . . give me a break. Those two entities lean so far to the left that the knuckles on their left hands drag the ground.

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

You forgot to mention that Obama is leading in the tea leaf reading and chicken entrails reading markets as well.

ROFLMAO…you’re a idiot.

HumpBot Salvation on October 29, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Did Obama really fire a General who tried to send help to Ambassador Stevens?

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

No, debunked already. Do not spread bad rumors.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Might as well not even show up to vote, then!

Good Lt on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Heck we might as well pledge our undying love to our liberal overlords while we’re at it.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Rasmussen: OHIO

R: 50%

O: 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

RuPoll, you were saying something about Romney losing ground in Ohio?

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Yep, Obama is winning.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

So WaPo’s lying?

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Barky must have found the keys to the GWBush Hurricane Machine ™, the one W used to destroy New Orleans, because it seems to me that’s the only thing that might save his sorry azz. Watch our dynamic young president leap into action providing more federal relief to more federal victims in the next week than you would have thought possible. Watch the “independent” vote melt away. Scares the willies out of me.

bofh on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Face the FACTS. Romney lost ground in this poll and lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

And you have obviously lost your ability to reason. If these two left wing entities can only produce a 1 point Advantage then he is finished.

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM

gumbey never had the ability to reason.

Keep up man.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Think for yourselves

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Obot can think? Talk about oxymoron.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Obama carried Ohio by a 51% to 47% margin in 2008, but just 46% of the state’s voters now approve of the job he is doing. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 29% and Strong Disapproval from 44%, giving the president a slightly worse job approval rating in Ohio than he earns nationally.

Now, how is Obama going to win this state again?

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://www.cm-life.com/2012/10/28/prediction-markets-see-obama-as-moderate-favorite/

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Let me see…you say think for yourself, and you link a left wing campus rag, and two betting sites as your “research”?

Really? Really? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

right2bright on October 29, 2012 at 10:36 AM

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:30 AM

No, debunked already. Do not spread bad rumors.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Can you prove that?

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

See that car wreck? Obama MEANT to do that!

Lourdes on October 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Good for you zippy, you stick with that.

If you are really sure, bet the farm on it.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:25 AM

You do not bet on who you root for, you bet on the best return on your investment. It’s a rational decision. That’s why predictive markets work. The best wagering opportunity came right before the first debate. At that time, you could bet on the spread of the popular vote. For 1/2 day, Obama was favored by 3%. I bet on Romney that day so I am getting Romney + 3%.

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Gumby, serious question. If President Obama loses the popular vote by 2 points or more will you admit your analysis was wrong?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Analysis? gumbypoked? Talk about two things whose paths never cross.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 10:38 AM

“Face the FACTS. Romney lost ground in this poll and lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:14 AM

And you have obviously lost your ability to reason. If these two left wing entities can only produce a 1 point Advantage then he is finished.

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM”

Really?

Those “two left wing entities” just showed Romney ahead by 2 in their previous poll. How did that happen?

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:39 AM

er, not exactly. Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners is a Democrat. so i guess she is spinning as well….lolz!

runner on October 29, 2012 at 10:13 AM

So let me get this straight, Lake and Goeas did this poll together, but Goeas is the only one who’s a partisan spinner?

OK, I get it.

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Those “two left wing entities” just showed Romney ahead by 2 in their previous poll. How did that happen?

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:39 AM

As mentioned before by another HA poster, it’s simply CYA.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

What was dishonest about this Battleground poll? They have never been known to push poll or do anything that isn’t above board before.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

From Politico’s poll a week ago:

Obama dropped 21 ib favorability with indies overall
Dropped 8 favability with BG indies

Romney went from +2 in BG states
Romney gained 12 points with indies

Yet lost 2 points overall? Sure thing, gummy.

This is a garbage poll. And it’s already 4 days old.

Chuck Schick on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

You do not bet on who you root for, you bet on the best return on your investment. It’s a rational decision. That’s why predictive markets work. The best wagering opportunity came right before the first debate. At that time, you could bet on the spread of the popular vote. For 1/2 day, Obama was favored by 3%. I bet on Romney that day so I am getting Romney + 3%.

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:38 AM

There is nothing rational about betting, betting is not an investment return strategy, it’s an adrenalin strategy.

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Can you prove that?

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Sigh, debated here on the QOTD thread Saturday.

Ace has pictures of the general still performing his duties later in September.

Don’t go in for the Admiral getting relieved either. The Stennis was no where Libya at the time.

JE Dyer covered it yesterday. It would have been really useful here.

Still waiting on Blackfive.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

rplat on October 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM
gumbey never had the ability to reason.

Keep up man.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:34 AM

…oh gawd…now gumme is getting it all over the walls!

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 10:41 AM

ZippyZ on October 29, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Yes dear, head over to intrade and go all in then.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I think, based on where everything stands today, that it is better than even odds that Romney wins. However, with that said, I want to get people’s thoughts on the following:

One thing I want to say before the election – I think Romney has run a pretty bad campaign. Win or lose, he was far, far too cautious. He took no risks, had no grand theme, and did not really make a stark contrast between liberalism and conservatism.

Now, I like Romney (although still believe he is more of a centrist pragmatist than a conservative) and hope he wins. But, his entire campaign has been sitting back and hoping that Obama loses rather than pushing hard for the win. (Something I predicted during the primaries, btw).

Why is this important? B/c the race is closer than it should be with the economy the way it is and with Obama’s policies being as unpopular as they are. And, because the race is so close, we will not see the gains in the Senate and local and state elections we could have obtained.

And don’t argue about Obama’s personal likeability factor. that could have been dealt with by spending more time and effort in defining him as a hard-core leftist partisan that he is, instead of the tact Romney took – simple disappointment with Obama. That allowed Obama’s likeability to remain high. Another lost opportunity.

Think about it. Romney only started doing well in the polls because of a terrible performance by Obama at the first debate. That was pure luck on Romney’s part. Yes, I don’t believe Obama is a good debater or off-the-cuff speaker. Romney was always going to do well against Obama. But, nobody could have predicted the abysmal performance of Obama in the first debate.

Romney put on a horrible, horrible convention – receiving no bounce. In fact, the disaster of the convention alone should cause future candidates to avoid Romney’s team. (I’m using disaster in the sense of blown opportunities. I don’t think the convention was “bad” – just that it failed to accomplish anything, to have a theme, to sell anyone on Romney).

If Romney wins, people will claim he had a smart campaign. I disagree. If Romney wins it is because the facts on the ground are against Obama. Romney ran the entire campaign as not making any waves, taking no chances, hoping that the economy alone would doom Obama.

The only risk Romney took was picking Ryan as VP, and that really wasn’t as much of a risk as people make it out to be- Ryan is compelling, smart, and serious. And popular with the base while, despite lefty arguments otherwise, not scary to the middle.

Like I said, I want Romney to win – but, if he does, I hope people don’t get the silly illusion that he ran a good campaign. He ran a cautious campaign designed not to make mistakes and sit back and hope Obama loses on the economy. While it may ultimately win, that decision ensured it would be a close race w/o any coat-tails when the opportunity was there for a landslide in our favor. And, if Romney manages to lose, it is entirely his own fault b/c he did not run to win, he ran hoping Obama would lose.

Has Romney done some good things? Of course. He has been a very good debater, money raiser, and it sounds like he has a good ground game set up. He hasn’t been terrible or even as bad as McCain in terms of not fighting back against Obama claims and negative ads. But, again, the issue is whether he did things to expand the map, to increase potential gains. He has done nothing on that front. He has been more than happy to sit and play a game of wait it out in the hopes that the bad economy sinks Obama. That to me is disappointing in that there was a great opportunity here to really define democrats and their party and make this a big issue campaign – something Romney decidedly did not do.

Now, before the usual suspects start accusing me of being to “extreme” and wanting a “red-meat” campaign – that is not what I am arguing. Romney could have had a much more forceful campaign with a big theme and attacked Obama harder without having to go far-right-wing. B/c Obama and his cabinet is so far left, you could easily have attacked him hard from right-of-center, which is where America is. So, it would not have to be a conservative wet-dream campaign to be a better campaign. It just required someone with some vision, some belief, and some guts.

Monkeytoe on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

What was dishonest about this Battleground poll? They have never been known to push poll or do anything that isn’t above board before.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I agree. I don’t have a problem with Battleground.

But, you lack the ability to read if you can’t see how Politico framed the information to be pro-Obama.

Example. They mention how Romney is winning the ‘burbs…

…and then move onto how Obama is getting decimated in the rural/exurbs, but then claim how that’s offset by his urban stronghold.

Now, let’s meet Reality.

2008 – Urban was strong. Obama carried the ‘burbs. Rural stayed home.

So the BG info actually shows –

1. Obama has lost the burbs

2. Obama is relying on his urban voters

3. Romney has galvanized the rural vote to offset the urban.

As I’ve pointed out for a month re: Ohio.

Rural and Urban negate each other, making this suburban warfare.

…and as BG shows, Romney is carrying the suburbs. Which is why PA is in tight.

And Romney being locked into OH since Friday because of Sandy, is a blessing in disguise. His turnout has been 10K+ every stop.

budfox on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

This isn’t an election; it is an, I.Q. Test.
Romney/Ryan 2012

nimrod on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Can you prove that?

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Sigh, debated here on the QOTD thread Saturday.

Ace has pictures of the general still performing his duties later in September.

Don’t go in for the Admiral getting relieved either. The Stennis was no where Libya at the time.

JE Dyer covered it yesterday. It would have been really useful here.

Still waiting on Blackfive.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 10:40 AM

So, in other words, NO, you cannot. All you can do, is post opinionated assertions. Thank you, you may sit down now.

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM

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