Newest states in play: Pennsylvania and Minnesota? Update: Romney by one in Colorado

posted at 4:01 pm on October 29, 2012 by Allahpundit

I’m trying to maintain a healthy eeyorish skepticism here but it’s getting harder. Yesterday the AP reported that Biden was headed to Scranton and that Romney — maybe — was headed to Minnesota. Today? Reports of a $2 million ad buy by Mitt’s Super PAC across Pennsylvania, including Philly, and a hastily arranged visit by the Big Dog to Minnesota as part of his midwestern swing on O’s behalf:

As the presidential race narrows in Minnesota, former President Bill Clinton is planning to visit here this week to shore up support for President Barack Obama.

Details of the Tuesday visit are still being worked out. The former president’s visit is part of a Midwest swing that includes Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, the Obama campaign said. All year, the six other states have been considered battleground areas in the presidential race…

The sudden attention comes as both campaigns have started buying advertising time in Minnesota, which had been lacking until last week.

Question for campaign pros: Is there any reason Biden or Clinton would spend a minute in these states if they weren’t legitimately in play, albeit still likely to go for O? I can understand Romney spending a bit of time and money there for strategic reasons, even if he thought he had no real chance, as an attempt to bluff Obama into spending resources to defend them. But it’s harder for me to imagine Team O being suckered by that bluff if their own internal polls had them comfortably ahead. There’s no way they’d be buying ads in Minnesota with money that could be better spent trying to win Florida or Virginia unless they really felt they needed to, right? And if we’re suddenly seeing enough movement towards Romney in the midwest and Rust Belt to make Minnesota and Pennsylvania kinda sorta competitive, then what’s going on in Wisconsin and Ohio, where Team Mitt is pouring in time and money? You already know what Rasmussen says about the latter; he also had the former tied as of a few days ago, but his is the only poll of Wisconsin in the past 12 days. Note to pollsters: Time to fix that, ASAP.

As for the national polls, they’re all over the map suddenly. Pew has the race tied, Rasmussen has Romney by two, and both Gallup and the Battleground Poll have Romney by five. Even Pew sees cause for optimism, though. Exit quotation: “When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches… Indeed, surveys over the past month have found Republicans becoming much more upbeat about the race and about Mitt Romney himself.”

Update: CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!). ARG had Romney ahead earlier by the same margin. The last six polls in the state have gone R+1, R+1, O+1, O+4, Tie, R+4.


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GUMME…GUMME…GUMME

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

The firewall does nothing!

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

New ARG national poll has a tied race at 48%. Romney leads independents by 13. Sample is D+6 (was D+7 in 08, even in 04/2010)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

…gumme…gumme…gumme

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Ay, my head, she is hurtin’.

Knott Buyinit on October 29, 2012 at 4:05 PM

From Josh Jordon – National Review

While Team Obama loudly declares that Gallup has to be an outlier, there is one other poll that has been tracking party affiliation every day as well: Rasmussen. Just like Gallup, Rasmussen runs a daily tracking poll with about 1,500 respondents included in the partisan-affiliation breakdown. In 2008, Rasmussen found Democrats with a 7.1 percentage point advantage in turnout, which was a perfect prediction of the Democratic-turnout margin on Election Day. In September of 2012, Rasmussen has Republicans now edging Democrats by 2.6 points, with a split of 34 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. Keep in mind that September was a brutal month for Romney — between enduring Obama’s post-DNC bounce, the 47 percent video, and the media reaction to his Egypt-embassy statement. This means that October, given the debates, could be even stronger than September was for the GOP.

Regardless, taking the Rasmussen partisan breakdown of 2008 and 2012 numbers and plugging them into the actual results gives Obama a 7-point win in 2008 and Romney a half-point victory in 2012. Taking the same scenario as Gallup and moving the independent results to match the current polling average changes Romney’s half-point victory into a 5.7-point victory. (As with Gallup, I’m assuming the Republican and Democrat voting margins stay the same as they were in 2008.)

My R/R 285 EV may be out of date, it could very well be R/R 305.

Turtle317 on October 29, 2012 at 4:05 PM

PA GOP leads in absentee ballots by 18.82%

In 2008 only led absentee ballots cast by 1.92%

http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/

reddevil on October 29, 2012 at 4:06 PM

I’m trying to maintain a healthy eeyorish skepticism here

**facepalm**

burrata on October 29, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Pew has the race tied, Rasmussen has Romney by two, and both Gallup and the Battleground Poll have Romney by five.

Actually the Battleground Poll has Obama +1. The Battleground projection model has Romney by 5. See RCP for and Battleground’s memo here: http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/goeasbattlegroundmemooct28.html

Missy on October 29, 2012 at 4:06 PM

If were Obama, I would blame Twitter.

Oil Can on October 29, 2012 at 4:07 PM

And if we’re suddenly seeing enough movement towards Romney in the midwest and Rust Belt to make Minnesota and Pennsylvania kinda sorta competitive, then what’s going on in Wisconsin and Ohio, where Team Mitt is pouring in time and money? You already know what Rasmussen says about the latter; he also had the former tied as of a few days ago, but his is the only poll of Wisconsin in the past 12 days. Note to pollsters: Time to fix that, ASAP.

It means that the traditional swing states are gonna go for Mitt. Or at least enough of them that 270 is forgone conclusion. PA and MN would be gravy. Gallup and Ras are both predicting the breakdown to be R+1. If that’s the case, I don’t see how Obama can win.

CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!).

I wouldn’t put stock in any CNN poll after their pathetic track record this election. They’re consistently one of the worst when it comes to Democrat-skewed samples.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 4:08 PM

…gumme…gumme…gumme

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 4:05 PM

pokey …pokey…pokey

burrata on October 29, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Obama is counting entirely on big Democrat turnout, which ain’t gonna happen.

John the Libertarian on October 29, 2012 at 4:08 PM

See RCP for and Battleground’s memo here

See RCP for the link to the Battleground poll, that is. The projection model numbers can be found in the memo I linked.

This caused some confusion around the webs this morning…

Missy on October 29, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Sums it up – only fools will vote for Obama. Get over yourselves – you were snookered.

Clint Eastwood nailed it. In his now-famous speech to the invisible Obama and the empty chair, he said: “We own this country. When someone isn’t doing the job, we’ve got to let (him) go.”

That is The Great Disappointment of the Barack Obama era. Had he fulfilled his promises, he might have been somebody very special. Instead, he’s become an empty chair, a blank spot where a president used to be.

Schadenfreude on October 29, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Thank God Obama won’t get to sully Red Rocks this fall. I have too many great memories to protect.

patman77 on October 29, 2012 at 4:11 PM

and then there is also, The Bradley Effect.

Coming Soon, to a precinct near you.

FlaMurph on October 29, 2012 at 4:11 PM

I simply do not understand how any poll can have O up with Independents. That’s just crazy talk.

nukemhill on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

I walked the dogs this weekend in my neighborhood.:

0 Obama signs.
5 Romney signs.
5 empty chairs next to those romney signs.

None of the 2008 obama voters have signs out. To find an obama sign, I have to venture into other neighborhoods and they are extremely rare there too.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Update: CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!). ARG had Romney ahead earlier by the same margin. The last six polls in the state have gone R+1, R+1, O+1, O+4, Tie, R+4.

Indies by 8 for 0?

Bullsh**. Obamas going to lose Colorado.

jawkneemusic on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Obama is counting entirely on big Democrat turnout, which ain’t gonna happen.

John the Libertarian on October 29, 2012 at 4:08 PM

He is screwed 12 ways from Tuesday. Not only was 2008 a banner year for Dem turnout, but it was also an unusually low turnout year for Republicans. It will not be a 32% year for Republicans this time around. And with a clear independent advantage for Romney is most polling there is no conceivable way Obama can turnout enough Dems to win this.

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:13 PM

One reason Pew swung back to a tie was the switch to a Dem sample.

And I’m not sure what to make of PA and MN. It’s been so difficult for Romney to get over the hump in OH, the cw would say that he certainly wouldn’t in much bluer states. But, obviously both campaigns see SOMETHING happening there; no way Obama would risk the ‘you mean they have to defend PA and MN too’ coverage unless he had to.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Indies by 8 for 0?

Bullsh**. Obamas going to lose Colorado.

jawkneemusic on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

It’s CNN. Just ignore them. A few months ago they were still polling adults.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 4:13 PM

…GUMME…GUMME…GUMME

KOOLAID2 on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Don’t summon him.

portlandon on October 29, 2012 at 4:13 PM

So why is North Carolina all of a sudden “tied” again according to Public Policy Polling? Eh? Anyone?

SouthernGent on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Enjoy this article from the San Francisco Chronicle

San Francisco liberals anxious, sleepless, panicking over possibility that Obama will lose the election. Nervous Democrats check daily with Nate Silver for reassurance.

There are no documented cases of actual bedwetting.

Yet.

aunursa on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Hmmmm. The Green One has failed to come out and play.

Has he been on any threads today?

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I’m trying to maintain a healthy eeyorish skepticism here but it’s getting harder.

Sounds like you need a Winnie-the-Pooh fix. Watch the one about Eeyore’s house getting knocked down, or the one about losing his tail.

Marcola on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I expect them to be sending cardboard cutouts of JFK to New York state by Thursday.

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 4:16 PM

I’m trying to maintain a healthy eeyorish skepticism here but it’s getting harder.

Let me help you AP:

Romney stays close in OH, PA, WI, IA, MN, CO but loses them all on the 6th, by very tight margins.

This is, I fear, what happens.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Question for campaign pros: Is there any reason Biden or Clinton would spend a minute in these states if they weren’t legitimately in play, albeit still likely to go for O? -Allahpundit

Erm…yeah…it’s the last week in a very close presidential election campaign. The wise candidate takes nothing for granted.

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

So why is North Carolina all of a sudden “tied” again according to Public Policy Polling? Eh? Anyone?

SouthernGent on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Trying desperately to change the narrative of King Obama as the come back kid?

JPeterman on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I CAN NOT WAIT TILL THE ELECTION and get on HA and every site, blog, and not see bho’s nasty face again! Just look at the snotty pout of the picture here and the one at the left! Gads am I sick of this worthless, well you know!

BTW, to heck with polls, the one WE want is how bad bho got his skinny rear kicked by American voters?
L

letget on October 29, 2012 at 4:18 PM

The firewall does nothing!

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

At the moment, it seems to be combusting rather well. Zero can read the polls late at night by the light from the flames.

2ndMAW68 on October 29, 2012 at 4:18 PM

The polls don’t matter…

… due to the storm, Obomwa will cancel the elections until all the damage is repaired, and every single piece of wind blown trash is accounted for and disposed of properly.

It should take about ten years…

/

Seven Percent Solution on October 29, 2012 at 4:18 PM

What’s a firewall?

vboscaino on October 29, 2012 at 4:19 PM

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

You know where Bush didn’t go in 2004? Oklahoma.

Cuz MN is a lot like OK in a normal election.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 4:19 PM

So why is North Carolina all of a sudden “tied” again according to Public Policy Polling? Eh? Anyone?

SouthernGent on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Let them sell their base on that BS. Every dollar Obama wastes in NC only helps Romney.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 4:19 PM

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

CHORTLE!!!

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Indies by 8 for 0?

Bullsh**. Obamas going to lose Colorado.

jawkneemusic on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

It’s CNN. Just ignore them. A few months ago they were still polling adults.

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 4:13 PM

I miss getalife…

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 4:21 PM

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

You really need to put down the pipe, kid.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 4:22 PM

The firewall does nothing!

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

They used a Benghazi firewall

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 4:22 PM

PA GOP leads in absentee ballots by 18.82%

In 2008 only led absentee ballots cast by 1.92%

reddevil on October 29, 2012 at 4:06 PM

By the way, the PA voter ID provisions as to absentee ballots were not postponed by the Commonwealth Court judge.

Wethal on October 29, 2012 at 4:23 PM

I’m trying to maintain a healthy eeyorish skepticism here

That’s okay, Allah,I’ve taken on that mantle for you. I guess it was finally time for there to be an election about which you were more optimistic than me. Here’s hoping you’re right.

Physics Geek on October 29, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Update: CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!). ARG had Romney ahead earlier by the same margin. The last six polls in the state have gone R+1, R+1, O+1, O+4, Tie, R+4.

Spin this, gumbeyandpokey.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Buy Depends, diapers and lots of Kleenex.

Schadenfreude on October 29, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

It was on several threads this morning. Then, someone mentioned trying to get it banned, and it vanished.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 4:24 PM

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Your hero Gore lost his own home state of Tennessee in 2000. Had he won that state, he would never have needed to win Florida to become President.

You still must be so proud of that achievement.

PS, it would have also helped Gore to have won West Virginia, which had gone D since the days of Fred Flintstone, and also to have won his Boss’ state of Arkansas.

But he didn’t even want the incumbent to campaign with him. Talk about efficient and thorough!

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Minnesota hats off to thee
To our colors true we shall ever be
Firm and Strong United Are We
Rah Rah Rah for Ski U Mah
Rah for Romney in Minnesota

This is making me happy. If he gets it or not – it’s still making me happy.

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Obama`s firewall seems constructed of napalm soaked hay…works for me :-)

NY Conservative on October 29, 2012 at 4:26 PM

R+1 with sample with IND:O+8 means CO is off the table.

EddieC on October 29, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

It was on several threads this morning. Then, someone mentioned trying to get it banned, and it vanished.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 4:24 PM

It was even on threads that had nothing to do with polling, which is a new tactic.

Don’t think it vanished because of the banning talk, as that kind of talk has happened here before and it hasn’t scared Play-D’OH yet…

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 4:27 PM

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Efficient campaign hahaha :) the only efficiency they had was with libtards such as yourself, but then they had the stupid vote locked long time ago :)….if they were efficient they would ave been ahead at this point, annot in dead heat, with the turnout edge and momenm on Romney’s side……

jimver on October 29, 2012 at 4:27 PM

It was on several threads this morning. Then, someone mentioned trying to get it banned, and it vanished.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Sometimes he’s like the Black Knight.
And sometimes he’s like Brave Sir Robin.

22044 on October 29, 2012 at 4:27 PM

I think we will know by Sunday who is going to win and by how much. My current bet, Romney +4, and @ 300 Electoral votes

ConservativePartyNow on October 29, 2012 at 4:28 PM

despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!).

You know, I’m starting to suspect that some poll savvy Democrats may be identifying themselves as Independents to pollsters.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Erm…yeah…it’s the last week in a very close presidential election campaign. The wise candidate takes nothing for granted.

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

We don’t see Romney scheduling stops for surrogates in comfortably red states, do we? There’s a reason for that, champ. A trip by Biden to PA the last week of the campaign would be akin to one by Ryan to AZ, and I very much doubt you’d see the latter as Romney just taking nothing for granted.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Obama is counting entirely on big Democrat turnout, which ain’t gonna happen.

John the Libertarian on October 29, 2012 at 4:08 PM

It`ll ALL be Sandy`s fault…count on it.

NY Conservative on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

I still have a very good feeling about next Tuesday.

kingsjester on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

O/T: Frum is on Medved right now talking about how there is high turnout for early in-person voting and this is positive for Obama (He must be referring to those busloads of Somalis). He also said he doesn’t understand why there would be a preference difference between registered voters and likely voters.

Someone’s is scared about their boyfriend’s prospects.

Kataklysmic on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

If Romney wins this thing, AP will have to run the humpbot round the clock for 3 days.

flipflop on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Hmmmm. The Green One has failed to come out and play.

Has he been on any threads today?

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I think he is doing lines rather than threads today.

Aviator on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

GUMBYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

gerrym51 on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Apparently Obama’s speech about trust is having a marked effect. Shame it didn’t work out quite the way he hoped.

a capella on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Someone‘s

fixed

Kataklysmic on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

I really can’t stomach watching MSNBC for more than five minutes at a time, but I have a feeling, on November 7th, I’m going to watch that channel all day long!

Oracleforhire on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

There is no freakin’ way Minnesota is play.

Zip.

None.

The DFL Walking Dead Zombies in the Twin Cities and Duluth will do whatever it takes to keep Minny blue.

Mittens would have to win by 3% points in the Real Vote to win by .5% in the Fraud Margin Vote, and no way is he three points up.

Never happen.

Even if Bishop posts that Mittens has a shot it means he’s drunk that kool aid, trust me, a Red Minny ain’t happening.

Bruno Strozek on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

I just got back from early voting in Kenosha WI, and had to wait at least 30 minutes to do so. The line was even longer when I was leaving. Saw cars supporting 0dumbo, and heard one guy ask his female companion, “I vote for 0dumbo and who else???”
But also heard people in line talking about how to vote for Romney.

Sasha List on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Thing is…Obama’s campaign has been anything but thorough (except for the degree of pettiness to which it has descended in order to shore up the unhinged base) and everything but efficient (except for the manifold ways it has fallen over itself to chip away at Romney’s ever-expanding lead).

Time for a bubble-bursting dose of reality, chump: the Man Child is on the ropes and the clock is winding down. Tick-tock…tick tock.

ManlyRash on October 29, 2012 at 4:31 PM

He also said he doesn’t understand why there would be a preference difference between registered voters and likely voters.Someone’s is scared about their boyfriend’s prospects.

Kataklysmic on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Heh.

a capella on October 29, 2012 at 4:32 PM

but I have a feeling, on November 7th, I’m going to watch that channel all day long!

Oracleforhire on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

That of course is assuming they stay on the air all day long. Having the entire talking head crew go all Heavens Gate might affect that possibility. o_O

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 4:32 PM

None of the 2008 obama voters have signs out. To find an obama sign, I have to venture into other neighborhoods and they are extremely rare there too.
lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 4:12 PM

There were two Obama signs on a long route near my home. They did not even last 6 days TG.

HellCat on October 29, 2012 at 4:32 PM

If Romney wins this thing, AP will have to run the humpbot round the clock for 3 days.

flipflop on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

And…. the melting, chocolate bunny.

Cody1991 on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!).

Trust me, CO is not even close. Romney by 6-8 points, and that is conservative.

Look at early voting and absentee requests and compare to 2008.

Norwegian on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

MN in play? I hope so – it will be a HUGE help on amendments here. Nothing definite but if Romney or Ryan come to MN, the noise will shake the rafters, wherever they hold their meeting. People will bend over backwards to see this.

And it would be SO sweet to KNOW that MN went red. All the 10,000s of volunteer hours would be incredible. Rs have struggled here for a long time but this glimmer of hope – heck, let’s go for it.

MN J on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

CNN becomes the second outfit today to find Romney up by one thin point in Colorado — despite Obama leading among independents by eight(!). ARG had Romney ahead earlier by the same margin. The last six polls in the state have gone R+1, R+1, O+1, O+4, Tie, R+4.

Realisation is finally beginning to set in… The end is near..

Al Hall on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Did a bunch of trolls signup for accounts a while back and now just start using them? I swear there’s a new troll almost daily around here.

strictnein on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Its better than what you are beatin’.

cozmo on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

O/T: Frum is on Medved right now talking about how there is high turnout for early in-person voting and this is positive for Obama (He must be referring to those busloads of Somalis). He also said he doesn’t understand why there would be a preference difference between registered voters and likely voters.

Someone’s is scared about their boyfriend’s prospects.

Kataklysmic on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

He seriously doesn’t understand older voters are more likely to vote, and they tend to skew Republican (hence the preference difference when comparing with registered voter samples)?

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 4:34 PM

But of course, when the President runs an efficient and thorough campaign, that’s obviously a sign of weakness.

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Yes because spending $200+ million dollars all summer long to paint Romney as the boogeyman and having it all go poof on October 3rd is sooooo efficient.

JPeterman on October 29, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Colorado poll: Romney 48% – Obama 47%

There’s that number again. 47% one week out for incumbent just ain’t going to get it done.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Realisation is finally beginning to set in… The end is near..

Al Hall on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

Na, when the realization finally hits them that their messiah got thrown out of office, they will go all mass suicide cult live on the air…

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

So it turns out Zero’s vaunted firewall was actually quite flammable, as if it were made of… straw

Ah, the irony

thurman on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Did a bunch of trolls signup for accounts a while back and now just start using them? I swear there’s a new troll almost daily around here.

strictnein on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

No, this one is a regular.

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

So hey, shake those pom-poms faster!

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I’m sure there are some of those “teabagger” types around somewhere who would be OK with shaking their “pom-poms” in your face.

Aviator on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Could Delaware be next?

Geez Louise, there are a lot of 0bamatards here. I would love to watch their heads explode one by one on election day as the state went for Romney.

UltimateBob on October 29, 2012 at 4:35 PM

So why is North Carolina all of a sudden “tied” again according to Public Policy Polling? Eh? Anyone?

SouthernGent on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

You are talking about the poll by Elon University with a +7 D overweight.

bayview on October 29, 2012 at 4:36 PM

trust me, a Red Minny ain’t happening.

Bruno Strozek on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Of all the states under discussion, it is probably the safest for Barry. But, it’s kind of fun to make Axelrod sweat a little more.

a capella on October 29, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Romney will take this going home. Should win PA

What with the power out after Sandy throughout NJ, PA, NY, CT etc,
the Obama voters will be looting rather than voting next Tuesday.

They know their Obamaphones will be gone, so have to provide for themselves.

Maybe pick up Senate seats in both PA and CT with reduced libtard voting.

txdoc on October 29, 2012 at 4:37 PM

He also said he doesn’t understand why there would be a preference difference between registered voters and likely voters.

Kataklysmic on October 29, 2012 at 4:29 PM

What a Fluking ignoramus. It amazes me this fool expects anyone to take him seriously.

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:37 PM

From the article:

As of Friday, (Nate) Silver predicted that Obama had a 74 percent chance of winning.

Heh, heh. Heh, heh, heh, heh.

SailorMark on October 29, 2012 at 4:38 PM

aunursa on October 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

This…is one of the most hilarious things I have ever read.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 4:38 PM

OT…

Maryland Governor cancels early voting for today and tomorrow. Let the hand wringing begin.

JPeterman on October 29, 2012 at 4:38 PM

I really can’t stomach watching MSNBC for more than five minutes at a time, but I have a feeling, on November 7th, I’m going to watch that channel all day long!

Oracleforhire on October 29, 2012 at 4:30 PM

You would do well to switch over to MSNBC after FOX News projects Romney to be the winner. For added fun, start a betting pool on the following:

1. How long Chris Mathews and company are in denial
2. How many veins appear in Matthews’ forehead
3. How much spittle Matthews spews
4. How many times Matthews utters the word “racist”
5. At what point during Romney’s acceptance speech Chris Matthews commits suicide

ManlyRash on October 29, 2012 at 4:39 PM

The firewall does nothing!

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

It’s like one of those thin walls in the cartoons where someone smashes through leaving a hole shaped like their outline.

There’s a cartoon idea for someone.

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2012 at 4:39 PM

chumpThreads on October 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Did a bunch of trolls signup for accounts a while back and now just start using them? I swear there’s a new troll almost daily around here.

strictnein on October 29, 2012 at 4:33 PM

Chumpy is an old one. He shows up every time he can scrape up enough coin to buy a bottle of lotion and a fresh box of tissues.

Aviator on October 29, 2012 at 4:40 PM

It’s like one of those thin walls in the cartoons where someone smashes through leaving a hole shaped like their outline.

There’s a cartoon idea for someone.

slickwillie2001 on October 29, 2012 at 4:39 PM

That cartoon picture always works perfectly for 9/11 conspiracy debunking.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 4:40 PM

5. At what point during Romney’s acceptance speech Chris Matthews commits suicide

ManlyRash on October 29, 2012 at 4:39 PM

BWAHAHAHAH… I personally wouldn’t bet one single penny on Chrissy Tingleleg making it that far…

SWalker on October 29, 2012 at 4:40 PM

There’s no way they’d be buying ads in Minnesota with money that could be better spent trying to win Florida or Virginia unless they really felt they needed to, right? And if we’re suddenly seeing enough movement towards Romney in the midwest and Rust Belt to make Minnesota and Pennsylvania kinda sorta competitive, then what’s going on in Wisconsin and Ohio, where Team Mitt is pouring in time and money?

.
Said it back in May – still true today:

If you want to know what is going on in a campaign, just look at where and what they spend their money on.

There is no such thing as having too much money this campaign year. The SCOAMF campaign has never moved past the “motivating your base” level of campaigning. What may be remarked on in the post-mortem analysis is Obama’s wading into the muck and never being able to rise above it.

This week decides whether Romney wins by 4% or 7% or more.

Everything else (see below) is a distraction. What!!! More SQUIRREL?!?

This “base” level campaigning also proves the lie in the “Obama leading with independents” meme being pushed this week. Does anyone believe that after 6 months and $ 400+ million in negative campaigning, Obama’s freefall in the polls throughout October & Romney’s increasing likeability/favorability ratings – suddenly the negative campaigning is winning over independents?

Why it’s almost as if the SCOAMF’s campaign and the LSM were marching in unison, isn’t it?

Side note: Winner of the “Late Kool-Aid Drinking” award is:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331865/obamas-big-reason-going-small-stanley-kurtz#

Seriously??? They are going to pull off a MASSIVE Liberal Wave Election????

PolAgnostic on October 29, 2012 at 4:41 PM

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