Best he rely on his own internals

WryTrvllr on October 29, 2012 at 1:59 AM

Good advice, but I’m sure he is already doing that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/28/minnesota-poll-shows-romney-within-margin-of-error/

It’s still a long shot, but it is possible….

LL

The problem in MN are three cities Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth all of which vote about 70 percent Democrat. The rest of the state had to be really strong Republican to overcome that.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The Duluth New Tribune endorses…..

http://www.looktruenorth.com/elections/education-presidential/20514-duluth-news-tribune-endorses-mitt-romney.html

Yes, you read that right – the Duluth News Tribune endorsed Mitt Romney.

LL

Always surprising how much more competent the anti-war party is at waging war when it’s necessary.
urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:46 PM

OMG if you had any idea how much the majority of the military hates obama.

Hubris = irony.

why do you assume the strib wouldn’t deliberately skew the results to lure Romney into spending money there? He probably should anyway, but everything from the MSM must be taken with a grain of salt.

Best he rely on his own internals

WryTrvllr on October 29, 2012 at 1:59 AM

I think this is excellent advice.

I am a born and raised Minnesotan, and as much as I would like to believe the Red Star‘s poll showing Romney within the margin of error on Soetoro, I just can’t accept it as truth.

The social democratic ethos of Scandinavia and Germany runs very deep in Minnesota, and as a result there are way too many otherwise sensible people there who believe there is no problem in society that cannot, and should not, be solved with a government program funded by the taxpayers. (My ancestors hailed from Norway for the most part, but my family ditched the statist/collectivist part of the Scandinavian sense of social responsibility several generations ago.)

Until I see reliable polling data that shows otherwise, I see the Strib poll as a trap, designed to siphon GOP money away from places where it can actually make a difference in the Electoral College.

Best he rely on his own internals

I have been detailing these polls for some time… checking the sample rate veraciously. Here is one post (with a couple added) from my FB that started quite a discussion with my liberal nemesis:

The Ohio poll that has the 49% vs. the 49% close race, is a great example of what I have been talking about here-and-there about the disparity of proper representation of Party affiliates in these polls. For instance, in the poll used by many to show the tie, here is the breakdown:

★ The party breakdown of the randomly selected respondents: 47 percent Democrats, 44 percent Republicans, 10 percent
independents.

We know that Independents are tracking more with the Republicans this year, about 54 percent (R/R) to 40 percent (O/B). And of course the difference is obvious in Democrat/Republican, as shown above. If there were a more even sampling between all three… Romney would be up, and by a few percentage points!

Likewise, the Minnesota poll that shows a statistical dead-heat is broke down thusly:

★ The poll comes as more Minnesotans identify as Republicans, which could add to Romney’s support. A month ago, the poll’s sample was 41 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 31 percent independent or other. In this survey, 38 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrat, 33 percent Republican and 29 percent independent or other.

[....]

Okay, the Gravis Marketing Poll (Ohio) which has Obama up 1 in Ohio ~ 50 Obama, 49 Romney… Dems are sampled 8% more (also remember Independents are going for Romney in larger numbers). Here is how the poll breaks down:

✔ Democrat – 40
✔ Republican – 32
✔ Independent or in another party – 28

[....]

PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago. How does this newest poll break down?

✔ Democrat – 43%
✔ Republican – 35%
✔ Independent/Other – 21%

Gumby and Ras and ARG have Romney ahead. ES.

CW on October 28, 2012 at 7:37 PM

In Minnesota?

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 6:24 PM

You and me both!

And only had to shift party ID six points bluer to get it.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 6:23 PM

He never acknowledges that.

Via @numbersmuncher:

DEVELOPING: Senior Romney national campaign official tells MN GOP a visit to MN by Romney and/or Ryan for campaign rallies being considered.

Their internals must be…SPECTACULAR!

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 5:17 PM

If it happens….Please let it be a day I can get off of work. Please let it be a day I can get off of work.

New PPP poll in NH shows Obama +2, 49-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:38 PM

And only had to shift party ID six points bluer to get it.

New PPP poll in NH shows Obama +2, 49-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:38 PM

In other words, Romney’s ahead. Got it, friend.

New PPP poll in NH shows Obama +2, 49-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:38 PM

My condolences to Obama.

New PPP Daily Kos poll in NH shows Obama +2, 49-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:38 PM

FIFY.

Your Troll Fu is very weak.

And the poll I’ve taken all week, at work and at church, shows that your messiah is toast.