Virtual tie in … Minnesota?

posted at 10:41 am on October 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’d be the first to tell people that my state is a quadrennial sucker bet for Republicans.  In 2008, no one thought we had a prayer, but in 2000 and 2004, Republicans actually thought they had a chance to break the Democrats’ presidential winning streak, as the state last went to the GOP in 1972.  I’ve been hearing Republicans get optimistic here again, but I’ve been highly skeptical of the prospects for Mitt Romney to even get close here.

Until now:

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney’s support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.

Bear in mind that this is the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, which has a long and (un)glorious history of leftward tilt.  Mitch Berg has long documented this trend.  One has to wonder whether we’ll need to send paramedics to his house this morning after he reads Rachel Stassen=Berger’s report from the survey.

Snark aside, this looks like a relatively solid poll.  The sample is D+5, with a D/R/I of 38/33/29.  In 2008 when Obama won by 10 points, it was D+4 at 40/36/22, and I suspect that Republicans are going to be more motivated this time around. Obama wins the core counties in the Twin Cities, but only by a relatively weak 57/35.  Romney wins the Metro suburbs with a majority 51/39 and edges Obama 46/44 in the rest of the state.

In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women.  This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men.  Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%.  Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.

That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.

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oh, and another sign of a campaign in disarray and losing it, are quaint stories in nyt on how the collapse in campaign strategy is bill clinton’s fault…

runner on October 28, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

GWU/Politico will have Romney up 5 tomorrow according to Brit Hume this morning.

If that’s true on election day, you lose everything, including Ohio.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

If the voters don’t care about 4 americans asking for help, denied it and then slaughtered… I don’t know what to make out of the direction of the country.

What do YOU think btw… Should people care?

antisocial on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

“Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM”

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Wow, you two are funny. All of the polls show Romney ahead, suck on that for a few minuets, then allow reality to pop your glass eye out a skull phuck you. If Romney has a horrible ground game as you assert, and he is leading Obama nationally and in the swing states, then Obama must really suck donkey balls. By your own admissions… So which is it. Does Romney’s ground game suck, or does Obama suck even more…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Oh look they are bonding. Isn’t it cute.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Dodo birds of feather, flock together.

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:35 AM

PPP:

Romney leads the self-identified Independent vote by an astounding 16 points. Among this crucial group, Obama’s approval-to-disapproval is 33-60, and Romney’s favorability is 53-37.

While it is true that you can lose independents and still win reelection, as Bush did in 2004, one cannot lose them by anything more than a very narrow margin. John Kerry won 50% of the Independent vote in 2004 to Bush’s 48%. Romney has a substantially greater lead with Independents in both national and state polls. If Obama was losing Indies by 2-4%, consistently, he might be able to argue that his GOTV efforts to overcome the deficit. He can’t mathematically defeat a tidal wave of Enthusiastic Republicans + Massive Independents.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Yes, Obama has really been surging ever since the debate. I can see a huge groundswell for continued economic stagnation and dependency rising across the country! LOL!

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

You really should read the comments befor spouting off, it might save you from looking like an idiot.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer: “Dead Heat”

Columbus Dispatch: “Romney Closes Obama’s Lead To Split Ohio”

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

ROTFLMAO…. Absolutely nothing will save UE from looking like an idiot…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Morris is what you would call in the investing world a permabull. He always thinks Republicans will win big. He was talking like this in 2010 and he overshot the mark although it was still a historic election. We didn’t come close to taking back the Senate. He said Reid was toast because he was under 50% right before the election.

Wigglesworth on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

We also have the fun of the new Quinnipiac Ohio poll coming out today, which will show Obama up again in the most important battleground.

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

It was great when it all began
I was a regular Obama fan
But it was over when he had the plan
To start a-working on this Mittins man
Now the only that gives me hope
Is my love for a certain dope
Rose tints my world keeps me safe from my trouble and pain.

MaxSplinters on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

oh, and another sign of a campaign in disarray and losing it, are quaint stories in nyt on how the collapse in campaign strategy is bill clinton’s fault…

runner on October 28, 2012 at 11:33 AM

No, no, supergenius Obama is lulling Romney into a false sense of security before he springs his trap…

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

What’s your prediction nationally? Obama by 6?

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

You know when you’re a Democrat and the “Red” Star Tribune reports your opponent within the MoE, your campaign is in trouble.

The Count on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I’m sure it’s great to get some attention but there is a downside. All those ads and phone calls.

Cindy Munford on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

ROTFLMAO…. Nope… won’t be a long night at all, they’ll be calling it for Mitt before 10pm…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

It’s going to be a long night for you, but not in the way you thought. Better have plenty of ibuprofin and Maalox at your bedside.

The Count on October 28, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

You’re dreaming. Shouldn’t you be out working up on your top ten excuses why Obama lost? That would be a much better use of your time over the next ten days.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:40 AM

But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

If the voters don’t care about 4 americans asking for help, denied it and then slaughtered… I don’t know what to make out of the direction of the country.

What do YOU think btw… Should people care?

antisocial on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

The little clay boy is just whistling past the graveyard. Even PPP found that Obama’s favorables haven fallen like a rock in the past 5 days. There’s got to be a reason and as much as gumby and urban defeatist would like to deny it is because of Benghazi…

I was watching Fox, and some guy whose name I did not catch, was trying to explain why Obama is tanking in the polls. He said he could not for the life of him figure out why, unless it was the last debate, or maybe people’s anticipation that Obama would not handle the coming storm (Sandy) very well. The Fox person said, “Don’t bury the lead here. Do you think it might have something to do with his handling of Benghazi?” The guy then says, “Fair enough, that could very well be.” He must have just forgotten about that.

Night Owl on October 28, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

ROTFLMAO…. Nope… won’t be a long night at all, they’ll be calling it for Mitt before 10pm…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

When they call PA for Mitt, I’m cracking open the bubbly!

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

So are the Democrat tire slashers part of your GOTV, or are they a stand alone part of the campaign?

Cindy Munford on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Dick Morris caught the shift to Romney in this state weeks ago.

Varchild on October 28, 2012 at 11:42 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Okay, so let’s except that Americans don’t care about those deaths (wrong) has the economy improved?

Cindy Munford on October 28, 2012 at 11:43 AM

No, no, supergenius Obama is lulling Romney into a false sense of security before he springs his trap…

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

right , right, sometime on Nov 7, vulgar-pants will release the kraken

runner on October 28, 2012 at 11:43 AM

ROTFLMAO…. Nope… won’t be a long night at all, they’ll be calling it for Mitt before 10pm…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

It’s like you guys only have two speeds: whining and gloating. One of the things that makes me relatively confident is how little people like you actually seem to know about politics.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

When they call PA for Mitt, I’m cracking open the bubbly!

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I have a bottle tucked away just in case Obutthole loses California as I expect/hope he will… ;)

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Ok, patriots in MN, go gotv! ;)

MeatHeadinCA on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

The Obama ads coming over from Virginia are completely devoting themselves to “Romney will take away constitutional rights of women to make their own health care choices!” and “Romney insulted 47% of the country!”
It’s like spinning out in the snow, and flooring it in the hopes that that will somehow give you traction.

Count to 10 on October 28, 2012 at 11:45 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

It’s like you guys only have two speeds: whining and gloating. One of the things that makes me relatively confident is how little people like you actually seem to know about politics.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

BWAHAHAHAHAH…………….. Oh please…you’re killing me…..

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:45 AM

The little clay boy is just whistling past the graveyard. Even PPP found that Obama’s favorables haven fallen like a rock in the past 5 days. There’s got to be a reason and as much as gumby and urban defeatist would like to deny it is because of Benghazi…

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I think that Gumby might actually be onto something here. I don’t think that Obama’s favorability is falling because of Benghazi. I don’t think that the issue has gotten sufficient coverage, and Obama has done enough to obfuscate it. I think that Obama’s favorablity is falling, because the American electorate is fixing to vote him out…

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:46 AM

At this landslide pace, Blightbringer carries CA., NY, IL. and HI..

[hillsoftx on October 28, 2012 at 11:10 AM]

I’m betting Obama takes NYS by single digits. That, in itself, will be a mandate from NY for Mitt.

Dusty on October 28, 2012 at 11:46 AM

@rickklein

Biden headed to PA. MN tightening. So are OH & VA. Des Moines Register endorses Romney. Map tipping late in Mitt’s direction…

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:46 AM

ROTFLMAO…. Nope… won’t be a long night at all, they’ll be calling it for Mitt before 10pm…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:39 AM

SWalker: I could not agree with you more. Two words:

MASSIVE

LANDSLIDE

……no matter how many Somalis are bussed in.

Mutnodjmet on October 28, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Dick Morris caught the shift to Romney in this state weeks ago.

Varchild on October 28, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Please. Dick Morris predicted 8 of the last zero landslides.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Have you even looked at the numbers on early voting in Ohio? More importantly, have you even looked at WHO is voting in Ohio?

First, keep in mind that no one knows who for whom the early votes were cast. Yes, it is true that the overwhelming majority will track with party identity, but polls in Ohio show that more Democrats are supporting Romney than Republicans supporting Obama. So, do not assume that all Democratic early votes are for Obama and, likewise, do not assume all Republican early votes are for Romney. In-person early votes and absentee ballots are not counted until Election Day.

Second, the majority of Democrats, who have either voted in person or returned absentee ballots, have voted in the last 2 elections. Republicans are getting voters that haven’t voted in the last 2 elections to vote early in-person or by absentee ballot. Democrats are cannibalising their Election Day vote.

You jump up and down about the WaPo poll and scream about early voting in Ohio; yet, you fail to recognise the disconnect. Obama is getting slaughtered in early voting in VA. Is his lead still solid? According to your Ohio logic, evidently not.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

WOW, you really are optimistic!!!! Good for you!!!

Cindy Munford on October 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

It’s like you guys only have two speeds: whining and gloating. One of the things that makes me relatively confident is how little people like you actually seem to know about politics.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

This is the internet: whining and gloating constitute the vast majority of any communication on any site.
Less on Hot Air than elsewhere, though.

Count to 10 on October 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

That’s what happens when you spend to much time in the big city. You suck on carbon monoxide instead of oxygen which destroys brain cells.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I live in Minnesota and this is the state that elected Jesse ventura when it was pi$$ed off. It elected Franken and Dayton with the third party getting 15% and the winner getting 42%.

This is not a state that will march lockstep to the polls for either party if they don’t perform and Obama fits that bill. Don’t be surprised if they throw him out.

Conan on October 28, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Hope for my native state yet.

SteveInTexas on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

You want to know how we all know Romney is going to win in a landslide, because pundits on the left like Chris Mathews are having racial conniption fits.

bgibbs1000 on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

It’s like you guys only have two speeds: whining and gloating. One of the things that makes me relatively confident is how little people like you actually seem to know about politics.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I resent that. I have not been gloating; I have been taunting.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Well, someone’s on fire today!

Key West Reader on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Now, that’s funny…coming from a leftist lickspittle. Just because YOU don’t care about the murder of Americans by your boy’s best buds doesn’t mean everybody is that anti-American.

I have three neighbors…old-line democrats, lifetime union guys and none of them have ever voted for anyone other than a democrat.
HOWEVER…I have been printing out the web-news about Benghazi, so that they could see what the msm has suppressed and hidden from the public. and guess what, pokebutt……..
All three of those lifetime democrats are going to vote against lil barry — and FOR Romney — because d’ohbama is such a coward and a disgrace! Now, they’ll probably go dem on the downticket votes, but they’ll be voting AGAINST your boy — and that’s what counts.
And, by the by, they are all three sharing the information that I’ve given them with their union ‘brothers’; so I don’t think they’ll be the only three changing their voting habit this year.

Solaratov on October 28, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Great, so okay, this is a bit off subject, but, I just heard a Red Cross Representative on Fox News being interviewed about this “super storm” that is getting ready to happen on the East coast, and they were discussing that the electricity could be off through Election Day. So my question is, who do the dummy voters blame when they cannot get to the polls to vote, and what is our Leftist Socialist President going to do to try and make this an excuse to postpone election results etc. It frightens me to think what they might try to pull.

Susanboo on October 28, 2012 at 11:54 AM

That’s because I don’t agree with Obama’s policies or how he handled that situation. But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

i think it might affect votes on the margins and the election is down to the margins

gerrym51 on October 28, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Umm, unless there is something incredibly dramatic between now and Election Day the is no way that Obama can get over 47% of the popular vote. So I guess if you think that 5% of the vote is going the Green Party or some nonsense than it will not be a long night.

Romney is going to win, the only question is will he get over 52% of the vote.

happytobehere on October 28, 2012 at 11:54 AM

But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Now, that’s funny…coming from a leftist lickspittle. Just because YOU don’t care about the murder of Americans by your boy’s best buds doesn’t mean everybody is that anti-American.

I have three neighbors…old-line democrats, lifetime union guys and none of them have ever voted for anyone other than a democrat.
HOWEVER…I have been printing out the web-news about Benghazi, so that they could see what the msm has suppressed and hidden from the public. and guess what, pokebutt……..
All three of those lifetime democrats are going to vote against lil barry — and FOR Romney — because d’ohbama is such a coward and a disgrace! Now, they’ll probably go dem on the downticket votes, but they’ll be voting AGAINST your boy — and that’s what counts.
And, by the by, they are all three sharing the information that I’ve given them with their union ‘brothers’; so I don’t think they’ll be the only three changing their voting habit this year.

Solaratov on October 28, 2012 at 11:51 AM

This is exactly the kind of anecdotal evidence that I am hearing everywhere in Minnesota.

PleaseFlyOver on October 28, 2012 at 11:55 AM

I resent that. I have not been gloating; I have been taunting.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Taunting’s OK. Gloating is unseemly, though.

This is the internet: whining and gloating constitute the vast majority of any communication on any site.
Less on Hot Air than elsewhere, though.

Count to 10 on October 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

True enough. That’s why I prefer to troll here. Higher level of gloating and and whining.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:55 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:36 AM

That’s what happens when you spend to much time in the big city. You suck on carbon monoxide instead of oxygen which destroys brain cells.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 11:49 AM

That’s why I avoid them thar big city things… I live out in the rural countryside, where the air is still fresh, and at 1500 feet above seal level I get to look down on the big city… o_O

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Calm down.

The poll is fixed to get DFL faithful with low motivation to get to the polls and vote NO on the Marriage and Voter ID amendments.

Mittens might come within 5-6 %, but the state is Land of Sky Blue Waters blue.

Bruno Strozek on October 28, 2012 at 11:56 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

you have used this line multiple times over the last 3 weeks announcing what will happen in future polls.

you need new material

gerrym51 on October 28, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I love when liberals pretend to be confident about an Obama victory. It makes me laugh.

Jack_Burton on October 28, 2012 at 11:57 AM

True enough. That’s why I prefer to troll here. Higher level of gloating and and whining.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:55 AM

An honest response from UE. Somebody get a screenshot!

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Great, so okay, this is a bit off subject, but, I just heard a Red Cross Representative on Fox News being interviewed about this “super storm” that is getting ready to happen on the East coast, and they were discussing that the electricity could be off through Election Day. So my question is, who do the dummy voters blame when they cannot get to the polls to vote, and what is our Leftist Socialist President going to do to try and make this an excuse to postpone election results etc. It frightens me to think what they might try to pull.

Susanboo on October 28, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I think that they should be able to restore most of the power by Election Day. Besides, with the exception of Virginia and Pennsylvania most of the affected states (DE, NJ, NY, etc.) are likely Obama states, anyway.

I don’t think that they would have the guts to try postponing the election counts/results..

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I love when liberals pretend to be confident about an Obama victory. It makes me laugh.

Jack_Burton on October 28, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I don’t think that I went any further than “cautiously optimistic.”

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Gumby and Urban: Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumbass

wargamer6 on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

When they call PA for Mitt, I’m cracking open the bubbly!

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I’m going to have to restrain myself from jumping up and down on my desk with happiness and relief, as I have to work on election night.

But I’ll be poll watching for a couple hours during the day, and that’ll be good to experience. What’s been great to see with only a little over a week to go is that I’ve had several people still ask me where they can get Romney/Ryan yard signs. I either deliver them myself or I tell them the address and hours of our local GOP Victory Center so they can pick one up themselves.

The Victory Center is trying to get a cable connection going so they can watch the returns there — would love to be there instead of work, but oh, well.

PatriotGal2257 on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

A three point difference with a 3.5 MOE is NOT a virtual tie. Ed needs to learn a least a little bit about statistics before posting about polls.

BTW if those results are true Obama has about an 80% chance of winning MN.

red_herring on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. It isn’t 2008 anymore. It seems a lot of the people who didn’t realize what a moron Obama is, now do. It won’t ever be 2008 for Obama again.

Night Owl on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Well, someone’s on fire today!

Key West Reader on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 AM

It had to happen… ;) After drinking way to much Friday night, while attempting to not get shot by my niece and nephew and all of their cousins at the annual family Air Soft overnight War, Saturday was a huge bust because I was uber hungover but now that I am once again right as rain… o_O

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I love when liberals pretend to be confident about an Obama victory. It makes me laugh.

Jack_Burton on October 28, 2012 at 11:57 AM

It’s denial. It’ll be fun at first, but the wailing, whining, and conspiracy theories are going to be insufferable.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:01 PM

The amount of signage supporting traditional marriage is brutal, the billboards, yard signs and bumper stickers are everywhere.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Come to my neighborhood.

Orange NO signs in every yard.

I’m counting on you rubes in the boonies to make up for the DFL-bots that surround me.

It’s like the DFL Walking Dead around here.

Bruno Strozek on October 28, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Susanboo on October 28, 2012 at 11:54 AM

It is not a superstorm (that would be cat 5+). It is simply a Cat 1 (75 mph winds) Hurricane that will make landfall in densely populated areas. The land fall in a densely populated area is what makes it problematic. Check out the number of October Hurricanes that have made landfall on the east coast over the last 150 years in October. WUWT had it up yesterday.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 12:02 PM

I can just hear Garrison Keillor mumbling furiously about this.

86 on October 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

He must have finished his stash of Powdermilk Biscuits, in the big blue box.

22044 on October 28, 2012 at 12:03 PM

I don’t think that I went any further than “cautiously optimistic.”

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I think that you should probably go for “resigned stoicism.” Or even better, try being a good sport!

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:03 PM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

A bunch of libs consoled themselves with that in Wisconsin in the Walker recall vote – which he won by 7%.

I don’t mind you being so disconnected from your fellow American. You keep that going there, buddy.

beatcanvas on October 28, 2012 at 12:04 PM

could someone track down where Gumby stated categorically about a month ago that obamao would win Ohio, Florida and Virginia?

Mason-Dixon Polling Director: “Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida”

October 28, 2012 – 9:49 am

These are the types of polls I love. If the I-4 corridor is going to decide the outcome in Florida, why not do a poll of just the I-4 corridor? Well the Tampa bay Times did just that and Mitt Romney leads by 6 points in this all-important part of the state:

AirForceCane on October 28, 2012 at 12:04 PM

http://www.expandthemap.com

Throw a bone to the Romney campaign if you have one.

22044 on October 28, 2012 at 12:04 PM

An honest response from UE. Somebody get a screenshot!

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Dude: I could have used you this morning, I had to crawl under the sink and adjust the pipes coming out of the disposal. Once more reinforced my respect for competent plumbers. Your politics not so much, but your profession…..

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Obama=Tom Brady

Romney=Eli Manning.

Zaggs on October 28, 2012 at 12:05 PM

@PeterHambyCNN

Rubio office updates on daughter Amanda: “remains in fair condition” at Miami Children’s Hospital … “Her longterm prognosis is favorable.”

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 12:06 PM

It’s denial. It’ll be fun at first, but the wailing, whining, and conspiracy theories are going to be insufferable.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:01 PM

If you actually win it, like in 2004, that’s one thing. If you steal it, like in 2000, we will be cranky.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Where did you get that idea? Oh wait you got it from that esteemed authority on campaigning…Urbam Elitist. LOL

Actually the ground game is fine, at least in PA and OH. I tried to volunteer in PA and they put me on a list because they had too many people already. The same happened in two different parts of OH to family members. One did get to fill in for a day and the other three are still on waitng lists. But then hey, ground game doesn’t mean people, right?
As for OH, my own experience with political campaigns there(on both sides by the way) tells me Obama is closer to losing than winning. He is in the sme boat(no pun intended) as Kerry right now. Not a good thing as it turned out. Unless Obama can pull more from the SW part of the state, he’ll lose.

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 12:09 PM

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Still carping over 2000? Get over it, loser.

wargamer6 on October 28, 2012 at 12:09 PM

A three point difference with a 3.5 MOE is NOT a virtual tie. Ed needs to learn a least a little bit about statistics before posting about polls.

BTW if those results are true Obama has about an 80% chance of winning MN.

red_herring on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

You missed the part about Obama being at 47% He has to gain 3 points as the incumbent from the remaining voters who didn’t tell the pollster they were voting for him 9 days before the election.

47% for the incumbant is trouble and even the famous Chuck Todd said so on MSLSD. Trouble equals much less than 80% change to win.

Conan on October 28, 2012 at 12:10 PM

If you actually win it, like in 2004, that’s one thing. If you steal it, like in 2000, we will be cranky.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

ROFLOL. That meme was debuked a decade ago. But you still believe in that conspiracy theory don’t you? I bet you believe the Air Force is keeping aliens in Area 51.

Math is hard, science is harder and research is hardest of all.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Dude: I could have used you this morning, I had to crawl under the sink and adjust the pipes coming out of the disposal. Once more reinforced my respect for competent plumbers. Your politics not so much, but your profession…..

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:04 PM

I’m a plumber now? My wife just gave me the shocked face. Oh, and you should have just used the plunger (I’m sure you have a lot of experience with it). Kinda reminds me of the plunger joke.

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Girdeth your loins and get ready for November 6th early exit polls calling if OHIO and all other states for Obama.

“THE OBAMA SURGE”.

Meanwhile back to our emergency programming about CAT 15 Hurricanepocolypse Sandy.

PappyD61 on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Actually the ground game is fine, at least in PA and OH. I tried to volunteer in PA and they put me on a list because they had too many people already. The same happened in two different parts of OH to family members. One did get to fill in for a day and the other three are still on waitng lists. But then hey, ground game doesn’t mean people, right?

Just to be clear — as someone who did campaigns for a living and consulting with my son, who did hid first campaign at 17 and happens to be around this weekend — if a campaign can’t find something to do with a volunteer two weeks out, their ground game sucks.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Rove was on Fox giving the numbers for 2012 that outdid his ground game in Ohio that WON the 2004 election for Bush in Ohio.

There is a ground game in Ohio and I would add the Walker machine that thumped the Democrats in July in WI has been cranked up as it was always in place and is now motivated.

Conan on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Oh look they are bonding. Isn’t it cute.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Two lost, kindred, souls…reach out…and touch……

eeeewwww……………..

Solaratov on October 28, 2012 at 12:15 PM

I’m a plumber now? My wife just gave me the shocked face. Oh, and you should have just used the plunger (I’m sure you have a lot of experience with it). Kinda reminds me of the plunger joke.

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I’m sorry. I thought I recalled from a previous argument that you were a plumbing contractor. Not being being snarky here (for once).

The only plunger joke I know involves Helen Keller.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:15 PM

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Now the claim to expert status comes out. You do know what the definition of an expert is don’t you? The problem is that you will have a difficult time convincing any of us that you know more than we do.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Just to be clear — as someone who did campaigns for a living and consulting with my son, who did hid first campaign at 17 and happens to be around this weekend — if a campaign can’t find something to do with a volunteer two weeks out, their ground game sucks they’ve probably already won.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

FIFY.

bgibbs1000 on October 28, 2012 at 12:16 PM

If you actually win it, like in 2004, that’s one thing. If you steal it, like in 2000, we will be cranky.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Try not to be ridiculous. Gore lost. Get over it.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Boy, it sure seems like Obama just gets to that 47% in quite a lot of polls. Ironic, eh?

Sign of the Dollar on October 28, 2012 at 12:17 PM

when dems talk about gotv what the mean is this

runner on October 28, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Boy, it sure seems like Obama just gets to that 47% in quite a lot of polls. Ironic, eh?

Sign of the Dollar on October 28, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I’d call it poetic justice.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:20 PM

If you actually win it, like in 2004, that’s one thing. If you steal it, like in 2000, we will be cranky.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

You mean the way that the Democratic media suppressed Republican voter turnout in the panhandle by calling the Florida race before the polls closed?

Count to 10 on October 28, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I’m sorry. I thought I recalled from a previous argument that you were a plumbing contractor. Not being being snarky here (for once).

The only plunger joke I know involves Helen Keller.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Gay Plunger Joke: Two gay men were coming home from dinner, and wanted something different to do that day. So the first went to the fridge in their apartment, and grabbed a large carrot. “Take off your pants, and bend over. I’m going to stick something up your butt, and you have to tell me what it is.” He said to the second.
The second agreed, and bent over. The first man stuck the carrot up his butt, and the second man said “I know, that’s a large carrot.” “Impossible, you must have played this game before – how could you have known?” “I swear, I never have.”
So the first man went to the fridge again and got a large cucumber, and did the same. Again, the man knew what it was, and said that he’d never played the game before.
So the first man went to the washroom – and he grabbed that thing… you know, the thing with the handle that you unclog toilets with? (The person you’re telling it to should respond with “plunger”.) You’ve played this game before, haven’t you?

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:21 PM

when dems talk about gotv what the mean is this

runner on October 28, 2012 at 12:19 PM

The ends justify the means for the lefties.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Now the claim to expert status comes out. You do know what the definition of an expert is don’t you? The problem is that you will have a difficult time convincing any of us that you know more than we do.

chemman on October 28, 2012 at 12:16 PM

“Expert” may be a little much, but I’ve spent a lot of Octobers trying to get the vote out, and I know that any campaign that says they have too many bodies is lying or incompetent. I’m sure that you know more than me about many things, but I’m equally sure campaigning isn’t one of them.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I’d call it poetic justice.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Welfare
Food Stamps
obambiphones
free housing
*and on and on….

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:23 PM

You’ve played this game before, haven’t you?

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Haven’t. But you seem to have a certain affection for it.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Just to be clear — as someone who did campaigns for a living and consulting with my son, who did hid first campaign at 17 and happens to be around this weekend — if a campaign can’t find something to do with a volunteer two weeks out, their ground game sucks.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Nice try, but I’m number 47 on the list in my area so they will get to me eventually. They didn’t even need me to run errands and get coffee. Oh, and there are a lot of college volunteers too.

What campaigns did you work on by chance? Just curious. Been doing it since 1968, so I’ve pretty much covered at least 8 states. Some volunteering and also some paid in co-op with the unions, yeah I even worked for the Dems. Worked on Congressional and Presidential as well as as state and local.

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Still proud of being one of 537 (officially) that kept Algore outta the WH.

Dammit, I miss W.!

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Haven’t. But you seem to have a certain affection for it.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Well, You are the one with the plumbing problems.

VegasRick on October 28, 2012 at 12:25 PM

If you actually win it, like in 2004, that’s one thing. If you steal it, like in 2000, we will be cranky.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM

According to a massive months-long study commissioned by eight news organizations in 2001, George W. Bush probably still would have won even if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed a limited statewide recount to go forward as ordered by Florida’s highest court.

Bush also probably would have won had the state conducted the limited recount of only four heavily Democratic counties that Al Gore asked for, the study found.

On the other hand, the study also found that Gore probably would have won, by a range of 42 to 171 votes out of 6 million cast, had there been a broad recount of all disputed ballots statewide. However, Gore never asked for such a recount. The Florida Supreme Court ordered only a recount of so-called “undervotes,” about 62,000 ballots where voting machines didn’t detect any vote for a presidential candidate. http://www.factcheck.org/2008/01/the-florida-recount-of-2000/

But somehow, I think that you already knew that…

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Still proud of being one of 537 (officially) that kept Algore outta the WH.

Dammit, I miss W.!

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Nice work. I’m ashamed to say that I actually voted for Gore on an absentee ballot. That was the last time that I supported or will support a Democrat on a national ticket. In retrospect, I really wish I could have that vote back.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 12:27 PM

I wish. The popular vote will be within a point. It’s going to be a long night.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 AM

GWU/Politico will be Romney by 5 tomorrow according to Brit Hume.

I think you’re in for an unpleasant week. The polls are going into their final numbers and I haven’t seen one that hasn’t lowered their D party ID weighting.

Gallup has the final party ID 35/36/29 D/R/I. That’s R+1. Rasmussen has it R+2.6 as of September. It was D+7 in 2008. That means almost every poll is underreporting Romney’s lead.

Plus the traditional challenger surge has yet to happen. Kerry closed the gap by 2 points in the last 48 hours of the 2004 election.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

There are also a number of inner suburbs that are far left, but you got the generality down. I can’t believe it; I don’t see any Romney signs or bumper stickers. Not even close to as many Obama signs as 08, so maybe there’s real hope. I think the marriage amendment will help as well.

IR-MN on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I live in Woodbury, and I have seen plenty of Romney yard signs, but only one Obama sign, and it is no longer up.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 12:28 PM

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