Virtual tie in … Minnesota?

posted at 10:41 am on October 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’d be the first to tell people that my state is a quadrennial sucker bet for Republicans.  In 2008, no one thought we had a prayer, but in 2000 and 2004, Republicans actually thought they had a chance to break the Democrats’ presidential winning streak, as the state last went to the GOP in 1972.  I’ve been hearing Republicans get optimistic here again, but I’ve been highly skeptical of the prospects for Mitt Romney to even get close here.

Until now:

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney’s support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.

Bear in mind that this is the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, which has a long and (un)glorious history of leftward tilt.  Mitch Berg has long documented this trend.  One has to wonder whether we’ll need to send paramedics to his house this morning after he reads Rachel Stassen=Berger’s report from the survey.

Snark aside, this looks like a relatively solid poll.  The sample is D+5, with a D/R/I of 38/33/29.  In 2008 when Obama won by 10 points, it was D+4 at 40/36/22, and I suspect that Republicans are going to be more motivated this time around. Obama wins the core counties in the Twin Cities, but only by a relatively weak 57/35.  Romney wins the Metro suburbs with a majority 51/39 and edges Obama 46/44 in the rest of the state.

In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women.  This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men.  Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%.  Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.

That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.

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Obama is cratering….

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 10:44 AM

GOTV MINNESOTA

We need ya

cmsinaz on October 28, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Hee Hee!

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Dont worry, this will cause Obama’s odds of winning in Nate Silver’s “model” to go up to 99%.

But in the real world, yes, Obama is in deep trouble, even if skewed polls are hiding that fact. Obama will lose by at least 4, and Romney will get over 300 electoral votes.

milcus on October 28, 2012 at 10:47 AM

OT

Apparently, the word “democrat’ is now derisive according to this CNN political producer.

When pledging to be bipartisan, Romney uses derisive term for the opposing party. “I’m going to meet regularly with ‘Democrat’ leaders.”

Rachel Streitfeld (@streitfeldcnn) October 28, 2012

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 10:47 AM

…and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.

How much, Cap’n? What percentage of ads that you see are presidential campaign ads? And is there any tilt to 0 or Romney?

Inquiring minds, doncha know…

JohnGalt23 on October 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

According to my friend who is heavily involved in MN GOP politics – internals are even better than this poll.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The problem in MN are three cities Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth all of which vote about 70 percent Democrat. The rest of the state had to be really strong Republican to overcome that.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It’s MN. Romney is not far enough ahead to counter the fraud that is sure to happen. Obama will still take MN.

Pelosi delende est on October 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM

When even the crazy geeks in Minnesota are seeing the light you know you’re in trouble.

Still, we need to sell Minnesota to Cambodia because all Minnesotans are aholes.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Ok Minnesota,

Time for some redemption after electing Jesse Ventura…….

Come back to the Right and do the Right thing.

R&R 2012

Its ok.

RealMc on October 28, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I would not hold out much hope for MN. They have these crazies like Ed up there.

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Word has it Brit Hume said on Fox News this morning around 630 EDT that GWU/Politico will have Romney up 5 tomorrow nationally.

Did anyone see that?

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Franken’ites will find the votes for 0bama…

OmahaConservative on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

When even the crazy geeks in Minnesota are seeing the light you know you’re in trouble.

Still, we need to sell Minnesota to Cambodia because all Minnesotans are aholes.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I am sure Ed appreciates that. ALL is a pretty strong generalization.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

The problem in MN are three cities Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth all of which vote about 70 percent Democrat. The rest of the state had to be really strong Republican to overcome that.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I saw Romney/Ryan signs yesterday in Minneapolis – that’s unbelievable.

We need a good snow storm on the Iron Range the day of the election though.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

There are also a number of inner suburbs that are far left, but you got the generality down. I can’t believe it; I don’t see any Romney signs or bumper stickers. Not even close to as many Obama signs as 08, so maybe there’s real hope. I think the marriage amendment will help as well.

IR-MN on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I am sure Ed appreciates that. ALL is a pretty strong generalization.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

First Bishop is from Minnesota. Second he’s kidding.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I can just hear Garrison Keillor mumbling furiously about this.

86 on October 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

According to my friend who is heavily involved in MN GOP politics – internals are even better than this poll.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

How much Romney advertising are you seeing, as opposed to Team Liar? Have you had any calls from either campaign, or any door knockers or lit drops?

JohnGalt23 on October 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

“Obama is cratering….

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 10:44 AM”

Sure he is. That’s why he gained a point in Rasmussen today and the ABC/Wash Post track is only a one point margin.

And, btw, Obama is solidly ahead in VA, according to the new Wash Post poll.

We also have the fun of the new Quinnipiac Ohio poll coming out today, which will show Obama up again in the most important battleground.

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I am sure Ed appreciates that. ALL is a pretty strong generalization.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I stand by my statement. I have met a few Minnesotans and every one has been a first-class moron.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

The problem in MN are three cities Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth all of which vote about 70 percent Democrat. The rest of the state had to be really strong Republican to overcome that.

Dasher on October 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Don’t forget the enthusiasm gap. A lot of Barry’s 2008 voters may be staying home this year. Many may vote for Romney because Obama has pegged their BS meter too many times.

swinia sutki on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Wondered where you were…

OmahaConservative on October 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM

If we take MN, I’ll eat an edible facsimile of a hat. There is no way. Not since Nixon?

hawkdriver on October 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I live in Minnesota. I don’t believe Romney will win MN. Might be close (within 3 points), but I don’t think it’ll happen. Nice to dream though…

Othniel on October 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Isn’t it strange that pokeme only shows up on threads discussing poll numbers but curiously disappears on the Benghazi threads?

Why, it’s almost as if his only purpose here is to muddy the waters until election day and won’t suddenly disappear when it’s over. Crazy, I know.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 10:57 AM

How much Romney advertising are you seeing, as opposed to Team Liar? Have you had any calls from either campaign, or any door knockers or lit drops?

JohnGalt23 on October 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I personally have not seen the “official” Romney ads yet but I’ve been seeing a ton of American Future Fund ads for the past couple of weeks. Have had one lit drop from them as well.

No Barry or PAC ads for months. No lit drops either.

I am in a secure apartment building so door knockers are not going to come my way.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I live in Minnesota. I don’t believe Romney will win MN. Might be close (within 3 points), but I don’t think it’ll happen. Nice to dream though…

Othniel on October 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Dreaming is fun. It’s going to be a nice distraction until the 6th. Besides anything that freaks out the Obama campaign is a plus.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

“There is a new poll coming out of OH tomorrow.Raquel Pinkbullet

on October 27, 2012 at 9:37 PM”

Good, more fun tomorrow!

Gonna be great fun to rub your noses in the rancid stench of the dying Romney campaign in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 27, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Do you remember what happened the last time that you predicted you would have fun the next day?

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Gallup returned to a Romney 5-point lead.

Rasmussen went to a Romney 4-point lead.

Good, more fun tomorrow!

Another day, another swing state disaster poll for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 27, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Guess what, RuPoll? It’s tomorrow! The poll was just released. Rather than being “another swing state disaster poll for Mitt, it’s tied. As the newspaper observes, “This is a major change from a similar poll a month ago, when Obama held a 51-46 percent lead over Romney. The reason may be shifts in key parts of the electorate.”

You must be into masochism because you have the strangest definition of “fun” that I have ever seen.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Not a MN that gave us Jesse Ventura, Wellstone and Al Franken.

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I’m not going to quote the troll, but I’ll respond to the thread in general.

WaPo doesn’t have the resources to do proper polling. Good polling is expensive. Start reading Numbers Cruncher, you might learn something.

Romney will destroy in VA, it won’t even be close. Minnesota? I dunno, it’s possible. Sure are a lotta libs up there.

happytobehere on October 28, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play —

…what?…you mean they don’t have their head up the cow’s azz… all the time?

KOOLAID2 on October 28, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I blame gophergirl….

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Guess what, RuPoll? It’s tomorrow! The poll was just released. Rather than being “another swing state disaster poll for Mitt, it’s tied. As the newspaper observes, “This is a major change from a similar poll a month ago, when Obama held a 51-46 percent lead over Romney. The reason may be shifts in key parts of the electorate.”

You must be into masochism because you have the strangest definition of “fun” that I have ever seen.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Ok that made me spit out my coffee!!! Thanks RWM

CoffeeLover on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

320 or bust!!

except Minnesota is still a sucker bet. sorry Ed.

Lost in Jersey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

It’s going to be fun!
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Somehow you have gone from being comic relief to becoming a tragic figure. You’ve been saying the same garbage for weeks now, and things have only gotten progressively worse for your guy, Obama. Maybe you are jinxing him, ever think of that? It’s time to pack it in, Gumbo. You know it, we all know it. It’s over. Independents and women have been fleeing Obama in droves.

The end is near for Barack Obama.

bluegill on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I don’t think Romney will win Minnesota, but with polling numbers like this up there, it means he’s surging strongly, and will win most of the swing states, and all of the important ones.

Woot!

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

“Isn’t it strange that pokeme only shows up on threads discussing poll numbers but curiously disappears on the Benghazi threads?”

That’s because I don’t agree with Obama’s policies or how he handled that situation. But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I blame gophergirl….

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I have been doing my part :)

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:04 AM

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

OK, now you’re self-parodying.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I don’t know what the Dems were thinking yapping about the Electoral College. It’s going to be a landslide popular vote for Mitt. The only chance Barry’s got is the EC and it’s a vestige of one at that.

Dusty on October 28, 2012 at 11:04 AM

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

…so your hands are not stiff today?

KOOLAID2 on October 28, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Ouch, that is going to leave a mark.

I wonder if he’s having fun yet.

bluegill on October 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM

That’s because I don’t agree with Obama’s policies or how he handled that situation. But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Obama’s JA is cratering, FYI.

Link

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM

The ultimate irony in this election is that Obama will likely garner 47% of the vote. He can’t break that ceiling in any poll that has a sample at or less Democratic than ’08.

BKeyser on October 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Sure he is. That’s why he gained a point in Rasmussen today and the ABC/Wash Post track is only a one point margin.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Did you happen to see the part where WaPo/ABC had to shift from a D+4 model to a D+6 model on Friday in order to get Zero up by…one?

Cuz, you know, 2012 is gonna be a democrat wave election…

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Everyone chides Dick Morris, and Minnesota is the one state I’ll use to say “Oh Morris, you’re crazy.”

I’m glad he picked it. Because I want Romney to win all the others.

Marcus on October 28, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Word has it Brit Hume said on Fox News this morning around 630 EDT that GWU/Politico will have Romney up 5 tomorrow nationally.

Did anyone see that?

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

It was the Battleground Poll, maybe GWU/Politico sponsor it, but yes, I saw it.
I also think, given the Strib’s reputation, that they would love to have Romney waste some campaign money in the state. If, however, this is true, I still firmly believe this race ain’t as tight as it seems. I won’t be surprised to see some of Obama’s “firewall” states break for Mitt and that includes Ohio.

cartooner on October 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

CORRECTION:

over the last four years

True, but also true over the last forty.

SoRight on October 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Well if it’s a tie then they go into sudden death.

Mitt will win the coin flip and elect to receive. He will hit Ryan on a post pattern for 6.

Game over.

SparkPlug on October 28, 2012 at 11:09 AM

At this landslide pace, Blightbringer carries CA., NY, IL. and HI..

hillsoftx on October 28, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Republican strategist just said “Minnesota” on Fox.

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:10 AM

It will be so rewarding if Obama gets 47% of the vote.

Grunt on October 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Republican strategist just said “Minnesota” on Fox.

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Hee hee

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Kasich said he doesn’t believe Ohio will be as close a people speak.

Ryan’s talking about how a mandate is more important than a win. Their internals must be off the charts.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Sure he is. That’s why he gained a point in Rasmussen today and the ABC/Wash Post track is only a one point margin.

And, btw, Obama is solidly ahead in VA, according to the new Wash Post poll.

We also have the fun of the new Quinnipiac Ohio poll coming out today, which will show Obama up again in the most important battleground.

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:43 PM

The Cleveland Plain Dealer: “Dead Heat”

Columbus Dispatch: “Romney Closes Obama’s Lead To Split Ohio”

@NumbersMuncher: Romney up 1 in PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with indies. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

It will be so rewarding if Obama gets 47% of the vote.

Grunt on October 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I know. The sharia media will be screaming “Report it as 47.1! For God’s sake don’t say ’47 percent’!”

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Gay marriage is on the ballot in Minnesota. Turn out will not be typical. Just sayin’

txmomof6 on October 28, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Ed: Minnesota goes a long way in washing off the stink of Al Franken if Romney wins there…

If not, LUTEFISKE for everyone!! A double helping!!

Khun Joe on October 28, 2012 at 11:15 AM

That’s because I don’t agree with Obama’s policies or how he handled that situation. But I’m also realistic enough to know that the issue doesn’t matter one single bit to most average American voters. You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Thanks for affirming what I said, that your only apparent purpose here is to stir things up on the poll threads, and even then you STILL get your ass handed to you on a plate.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Gumby is rooting for an impeached President.
FORWARD!

Electrongod on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I keep saying that no poll can measure the pent up anger and frustration against Obama and that every election since Scott Brown showed the electorate mopping the floor with Obama surrogates.

On November sixth the electorate will finally get to express all that pent up anger against the man himself.

How many drubbings did the thugs in WI get clobbered? Do any of you think the people of WI, NH and Maine are any less motivated and fired up now than they have already shown themselves to be?

This will be an EPIC defeat for the dems. Keep pouring it on people!

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

A three point difference with a 3.5 MOE is NOT a virtual tie. Ed needs to learn a least a little bit about statistics before posting about polls.

BTW if those results are true Obama has about an 80% chance of winning MN.

red_herring on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

So the odds aren’t great that Romney takes Minn., but if it makes obama have to spend money and defend there, that’s good

sandee on October 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Gay marriage is on the ballot in Minnesota. Turn out will not be typical. Just sayin’

txmomof6 on October 28, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The amount of signage supporting traditional marriage is brutal, the billboards, yard signs and bumper stickers are everywhere.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:04 AM

;-)

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

and even then you STILL get your ass handed to you on a plate.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Every time. There is a term for people who repeat the same action and expect different results…

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I live in Minnesota and know many people who voted for Obama in ’08. This year I know two that will vote for Obama, my in-laws. All the others (about 20) will be voting for Romney or not voting. I spent yesterday baiting my in-laws about O trying to make this election about birth control and abortion and even they can’t believe it. Romney has a shot here and the election will be a blowout!!!

PleaseFlyOver on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Hee hee

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Another dolt from the state that gave us Ellison, thanks for chiming-in.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Obutthead’s problem is that he has peaked. Yes, he will get 47% as predicted in a growing number of polls. But Romney is climbing. Not at the expense of Obutthead’s 47%. Obutthead cannot win the popular or electoral vote with 47%, especially when Romney will get 52%.

Dummyandpokeme says that the average voter is not paying attention to Benghazi. Perhaps that is true, as the “average” voter is pretty low information. But they are laser focused on the economy, and Obutthead loses on the economy–he has utterly failed and the proof is staring the “average” voter right in the face. As politically incorrect Romney’s 47% comment may have been, it is the spot on truth. 47% of the electorate is feverishly sucking the teat of the government. These are the 47% who will vote to keep the teat full. The lucid and realistic 52% will kick Obutthead out.

NOMOBO on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

So the odds aren’t great that Romney takes Minn., but if it makes obama have to spend money and defend there, that’s good

sandee on October 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

And he’s spending tons on ads aimed at NH also, which are a huge waste of resources.

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

BWAHAHAHAHAH……….. Ed you’re crazy as a loon… Minnesota has even less of a chance of going over to Romney than California does… Only slightly more than half of Californian’s are batsh!t crazy, everybody in Minnesota is…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

So Romney is spending money for ads in MN while saying it’s for Wisconsin as it reached parts of it. I think Romney is doing this just in case MN really is that close, but mostly to get WI. Still, great strategy if he’s trying to make Obama spend more money. I mean, if Obama has to spend money in the last week in MN, that messed up right there.

MrX on October 28, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Another dolt from the state that gave us Ellison, thanks for chiming-in.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I’m there for ya.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:23 AM

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

OK, who ordered a clown?

KCB on October 28, 2012 at 11:23 AM

You guys can pontificate all you want about it, but it’s not going to make people care.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

You sure about that?

New Poll A From Left-Leaning Firm Is Pretty Brutal For Obama

[snip]

Obama’s approval-to-disapproval rating sits at just 44-52, which is actually worse than Gallup’s tracking on Saturday.

Obama is losing the favorability battle, which has been a key strength for him throughout the campaign. His favorable-to-unfavorable rating sits underwater at 46-50.

Romney’s favorable rating, on the other hand, is a positive 49-45.

Romney leads the self-identified Independent vote by an astounding 16 points. Among this crucial group, Obama’s approval-to-disapproval is 33-60, and Romney’s favorability is 53-37.

These numbers are not a drastic one-day change from Saturday — Obama has been losing Independents by double digits for the past five days of PPP tracking, and his approval with them has been well underwater, too.

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:23 AM

BWAHAHAHAHAH……….. Ed you’re crazy as a loon… Minnesota has even less of a chance of going over to Romney than California does… Only slightly more than half of Californian’s are batsh!t crazy, everybody in Minnesota is…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

You know that’s not true. While I doubt Minn. will go for Romney, Minnesotans aren’t nearly as crazy as Californians.I should know since I’ve lived in Ca. all my life.That’s not to say I’m nuts,or that nuts, but a lot of the “folks” here are full tilt looney…

sandee on October 28, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Only slightly more than half of Californian’s are batsh!t crazy, everybody in Minnesota is…

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

You got that right, they are all insane.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

The amount of signage supporting traditional marriage is brutal, the billboards, yard signs and bumper stickers are everywhere.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

No one in MN wants a Vote Yes sign in their yard…They are the silent majority, “be nice and don’t wear your values on your sleeve or you might offend someone types”. Every yard with a Republican candidate sign, every yard with a Democratic candidate sign and not a Vote No sign, will vote Yes for both voter ID and the Marriage Amendment. Both will pass.

PleaseFlyOver on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

We also have the fun of the new Quinnipiac Ohio poll coming out today, which will show Obama up again in the most important battleground.

It’s going to be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

You know it’s going to be fun without even seeing the results because it’s a propaganda poll. PA is +4 Romney according to a conservative poll. I’m not deluding myself, but you can if you want.

forest on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

The right/wrong track number is 43-50 in this poll, which is also good news as to the late deciders.

That Obama has to even defend a state that hasn’t voted R for president in 40 years tells me that Romney’s going to win more than enough swing states to easily win over 270 EVs.

TXUS on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

At this landslide pace, Blightbringer carries CA., NY, IL. and HI..

hillsoftx on October 28, 2012 at 11:10 AM

From your keyboard to God`s ears. I`ve been saying for a while now that Barry & Co. have been spending ad money for TV spots here on Long Island….WHY would they do this? I think the whole darned Country is in play, guess we all find out in a bit.

NY Conservative on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

My understanding is that the advertising in MN is being done to reach out to WI markets. Still, it really would be something if Mitt carried MN… If MN is on the bubble, then NJ and OR also might be interesting to watch on election night. And if NJ is called forRomney, I’m cracking open the champagne!

I really, really want to see a complete, thorough, and broad-based of rejection Obamism on Election Day.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

You got that right, they are all insane.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

It’s the cold – it does something to our minds.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I know I’m reiterating here but we’re talking about a state that almost gave the election win to Franken.(Which was unfortunately within the margin of fraud.) I mean countless people voted for a guy who clearly hates you.(He did move away for 40+ years and didn’t come back until he decided he wanted your senate seat. What else can you read into that except he hates you guys.) Ever since then I’ve said that people in the state shouldn’t be described as “Minnesota Nice”, instead they should be described as “Minnesota Crazy”.

Dave_d on October 28, 2012 at 11:26 AM

A three point difference with a 3.5 MOE is NOT a virtual tie. Ed needs to learn a least a little bit about statistics before posting about polls.

BTW if those results are true Obama has about an 80% chance of winning MN.

red_herring on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

But that assumes that the undecideds will break at the same rate as the decideds. History tells us that is unlikely. The question is by how much the differential is.

I’ll grant you, the numbers still favor Team Liar by a sizable margin. But organization (which I suspect Team Mitt does not have in MN), and money (which we now know Team Mitt has a sizable edge in) can move those numbers.

JohnGalt23 on October 28, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate…

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Who won the debates?

Gallup:

Romney: 46%

Obama: 44%

Rasmussen:

Romney: 49%

Obama: 41%

Obama’s approval rating has dropped 7 points in 3 days. Maybe, his approval rating peaked last week!

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 11:28 AM

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

You got that right, they are all insane.

Bishop on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

And even worse… Every Minnesotan I every met, had TWO Hollow legs when it came beer drinking time… It’s like they were all breast fed straight from a Pabst Keg or something… o_O

SWalker on October 28, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

What’s your prediction nationally? Obama by 6?

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Rumor has it that battleground poll(natl) coming monday will have mitt lead over vulgar-pants by 5; poor poor zero supporters, finding that one poll to show how zero is “gaining” is becoming quite a Sisyphus task; spinning the data, cherry picking polls, yeah all sign of a winning trajectory. the writing is on the wall, but vulgar-pants has to keep his deadenders occupied, somehow.

runner on October 28, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The Des Moinse Register endorsed Romney–the first time it backed a Republican since 1972.

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:29 AM

“Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM”

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

From your keyboard to God`s ears. I`ve been saying for a while now that Barry & Co. have been spending ad money for TV spots here on Long Island….WHY would they do this? I think the whole darned Country is in play, guess we all find out in a bit.

NY Conservative on October 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

It’s probably a national buy….

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

You really should read the comments befor spouting off, it might save you from looking like an idiot.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer: “Dead Heat”

Columbus Dispatch: “Romney Closes Obama’s Lead To Split Ohio”

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Flora Duh on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

“Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM”

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Well. You would know about being a loser, wouldn’t you?

ghostwriter on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

“Romney peaked last week. He looked like a dazed punk in the last debate, and his polls are sliding just enough. He has no ground game and he’s going to lose Ohio. Obama will win Minnesota 54-46.

But have fun while you can.

urban elitist on October 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM”

I agree that the Romney GOTV ground game is ridiculously bad. That wouldn’t matter so much if it was a Romney blowout, but in a close state like Ohio, it dooms him to defeat.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Oh look they are bonding. Isn’t it cute.

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Ryan’s talking about how a mandate is more important than a win. Their internals must be off the charts.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I’m hoping there are some unexpected states that go to R/R since they can use that to argue the “mandate” point in the msm.

That being said…….who knew there were so many Nordic racists up north?

PappyD61 on October 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Obama can’t get it above 50% in MN?

And has a negative delta from an 8% lead to within a MOE at 3%? A 5% drop in a month? 1% per week with just a bit over a week left and underwater at 47%.

Yeah, MN is MN and all that stuff… but what is going on there?

It isn’t the snapshot poll that counts, but where it sits in the series of polls going on… and that one month delta is huge.

ajacksonian on October 28, 2012 at 11:33 AM

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