This thing may not be over on 11/6

posted at 1:46 pm on October 28, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

I suppose I should feel a little bit guilty for saying it, particularly on the pages of a politically oriented publication, but I’m pretty tired of this election. It’s been going on roughly since Christmas of 2008 – or at least it feels that way. The GOP primary was actually pretty good this year and it revved up both my interest and enthusiasm far more than the parade of munchkins on both sides four years earlier. But once it was done, the whole thing began to feel like one, long tedious slog through the summer and an exhausting swamp march to just get it all over with. But now we’re only about ten days from the finish line and – hopefully – the beginning of Mitt Romney’s turn to see if we can’t turn this country around and get everyone back to work. So one week from this Tuesday night we can all breath a sigh of relief and just get back to our lives, right?

Maybe not, at least according to Alex Roraty. In addition to possible – though unlikely – recount scenarios, provisional ballots could tie things up in knots.

A court ruled that Pennsylvania’s strict new voter-ID law can’t take effect until after the election, for instance. Restrictions on groups that register voters in Florida were reversed, and Colorado’s secretary of state largely backed off a plan to force suspected noncitizens to provide proof of eligibility.

But several battlegrounds are notable exceptions. Virginia now requires voters to provide some kind of proof of identification, whether a driver’s license or utility bill. That’s a broader range of acceptable forms than most proposed voter-ID laws, but voters could still show up at the polls without any identification on hand. In that case, they’ll have to cast a provisional ballot and prove their identity later — a headache if officials are trying to determine the winner of a close race in their state.

Even more so than Virgina, Doug Mataconis notes that Ohio may have a huge and lengthy sorting process for absentee and provisional ballots.

The state where there could be a big Provisional Ballot problem, though, is Ohio where Secretary of State Jon Husted sent an application for an Absentee ballot to every registered voter in the state. According to his office, some 1.4 million voters returned the application and were mailed an Absentee Ballot. That number may increase since voters have until November 3rd to request an Absentee Ballot. So far, about 620,000 of those Absentee ballots have been returned and, under Ohio law, they must be postmarked no later than November 5th and received no later than ten days after Election Day in order to be counted. Here’s where things get complicated though. Under the law, if someone who has requested an Absentee Ballot shows up at their polling place on Election Day, they are required to cast a Provisional Ballot. The reasons for this are rather obvious,, of course. Once it’s been noted in a person’s voting record that they have requested an Absentee Ballot, there’s no way for the people at the poling place to know if they had already cast that ballot, or if it had been placed in the U.S. Mail prior to Election Day. The Provisional Ballot is intended to make sure that someone isn’t improperly voting twice, and it makes sense. Under the law, though, those Provisional Ballots cannot be counted before November 17th. So, if Ohio ends up being so close that the margin between the candidates is less than the number of Provisional Ballots cast (not to mention the unknown number of Absentee Ballots postmarked by November 5th and received by November 16th), then we may not actually know who won Ohio for at least ten days after the Election. Since many analysts see Ohio as the key to an Electoral College victory, that means it’s possible that we wouldn’t know who the next President is until some time just before Thanksgiving.

I tend to agree that recounts in most of the battleground states, while certainly possible, probably wouldn’t hold up a decision. The only time that’s going to happen is if one of the states in question is locking up enough electoral college votes to stop both candidates from getting to 270. And I think we’re at a reasonable level of certainty that we won’t see a 269-269 tie either. (The third scenario brought up by Roraty.) But the one state with the combination of many EC votes and lots of paper ballots to count is certainly Ohio. I saw yet another poll this morning showing the Buckeye State tied up at 49% each. If it plays out closely enough that the provisional and absentee ballots will carry the day, we’re in for a long wait full of hyperbolic screaming. And as much as I despise the idea, Obama and Romney truly are running to be President of Ohio at this point. There are almost no scenarios where either man gets a clear, well defined victory on the evening of November 6th without carrying that state.

So stock up on coffee aspirin. We may have a ways further to go than we thought.


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Fun, isn’t it…?

Seven Percent Solution on October 28, 2012 at 3:17 PM

The former, and it’s no fun.

Schadenfreude on October 28, 2012 at 3:19 PM

gosh jazz, this is kooky. nate silver says obama wins 320 EVs or something. and he has a computer program and all, ya know? how could he be wrong?

t8stlikchkn on October 28, 2012 at 3:21 PM

What if… This thing isn’t over on the 6th?

This should be a call to arms. And by arms I mean the arms that are attached to your hands that you use to take that pen and mark the ballot with. Let’s not get complacent yet. We haven’t won yet. Remember that. And remember the fear you feel when you imagine what America will look like under 4 more years(or more) of Obama and his socialist minions.
And then use it!

Sterling Holobyte on October 28, 2012 at 3:21 PM

It’s not going to be as close as they are telling us.

Obama has a History of garnering the Low End of the Margin of error going back to his Illinois State elections.

That is to say if he Polls 47 percent and the Margin of error is 4 he’ll get 43 percent.

I’m of the opinion that a lot of talking heads are going to be as (if not more) bewildered as they were in 1980.

jaydee_007 on October 28, 2012 at 3:21 PM

I’m of the opinion that a lot of talking heads are going to be as (if not more) bewildered as they were in 1980.

jaydee_007 on October 28, 2012 at 3:21 PM

May God and the electorate make it so!

Schadenfreude on October 28, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Obama suspended his campaign “to watch the storm”. He watched the Benghazi attack in the situation room. Now he watches storms. He knows he’s cooked, unless they cheat.

Schadenfreude on October 28, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Actually if you read the article that’s a deliberately misleading headline. It says he cancelled in the storm’s path and left DC but is still attending rallies in Florida and Ohio.

And it says this…

White House emphasizes that during natural disasters, all decisions about preparedness and evacuations are made by local officials, not by the federal government

Funny they never said that about Bush and Katrina.

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 3:25 PM

In 2008 New Mexico took a month to officially count our votes.

Rancher on October 28, 2012 at 3:28 PM

http://twitchy.com/2012/10/28/fired-up-pics-show-massive-romney-crowd-in-pensacola-fla-form-flag-chant-10-more-days/
And

The Pensacola, FL News Journal endorses Romney – endorsed Obama in ’08. Editorial here: pnj.com/article/201210…—
Ted Newton (@Ted_Newton) October 28, 2012

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Funny they never said that about Bush and Katrina.

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Indeed, thee and me are totally different. Get with the program, rubes.

Schadenfreude on October 28, 2012 at 3:29 PM

To quote someone else on an earlier thread (sorry – forgot who):
Dear God, Romney landslide, please. Amen.

KS Rex on October 28, 2012 at 3:32 PM

http://twitchy.com/2012/10/28/fired-up-pics-show-massive-romney-crowd-in-pensacola-fla-form-flag-chant-10-more-days/
And

The Pensacola, FL News Journal endorses Romney – endorsed Obama in ’08. Editorial here: pnj.com/article/201210…—
Ted Newton (@Ted_Newton) October 28, 2012

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 3:28 PM

……and yet…….the polls tell us Obama is essentially tied (or MOE) in poll after poll in the swing state.

Must be the new 17 million strong OBAMAPHONE Demographic.

PappyD61 on October 28, 2012 at 3:32 PM

phoning it in aren’t you Jazz? Yesterday the electoral college – today what if it’s too close – maybe tomorrow you can write up a great “What if Bill Buckner had stopped that ball?”

batterup on October 28, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Jazz: quit playing ‘Chicken Little’… it is unbecoming of you…

Khun Joe on October 28, 2012 at 3:36 PM

It will over on 11/6 and it will be decisive.
I predict they will call it early.

rollthedice on October 28, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Hannity is a fool…
Schadenfreude on October 28, 2012 at 3:15 PM

You could have stopped there.

rrpjr on October 28, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Uhm no.

Here is the thing, for months now I have been watching the Black vote, the Jewish vote, and very much the Catholic voting block in swing states. It just is not going to add up to some sort of long night, or drawn out ordeal. On top of this is Obama being below 48% approval rating. He drops 7 points in 3 days!!!!!!! And, as much as I cannot stand lil Billy Kristol from the Weeker Standard, even he said he believed folks across the fruited plains were keenly aware of the Libya clusterfark. And the rotten eggs rolling out from that heart breaking ordeal are still rolling out of the Regime’s basket.

Just for fun, I highly suggest folks look at this:

http://difpolls.blogspot.com

Dave in Florida has been using killer math skills on polling data, and read on down to his Senate analysis. He has been saying for weeks that we have Ohio in the bag, and they know it! Besides, there is chatter that Oregon is in play, and IMHO if Oregon and Minnesota are in play, then PA is a goner for Mitt.

BUT MONKEY ALERT- However, I will say this, this Regime cheats, steals, and are thugs like no other. They will stop at nothing, as seen by Somalians being bused in to vote, when it comes to trying to win by any means necessary. Republicans, Reagan Democrats, and all others must vote like they mean it, and if you are in a grocery line, visiting with family and friends, or chatting over the fence to the neighbors, we have to get the word out to go Mitt. I firmly believe voter enthusiasm for our side trumps even Dem 2008 Chicago Jesus worship. As Jazz mentioned, our anger has been burning since the coronation. Love for America beats Manchild worship every dang day because it is not built on sand!!!! But even so… I expect to hear of major crimes and zero misdemeanors from now until it is over considering the people we are up against were willing to watch Americans being murdered live on their tv monitors.

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 3:47 PM

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 3:47 PM

…good post my friend!

KOOLAID2 on October 28, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Some people get so wrapped up in the excitement of the horse race they forget that nail-biting election finishes rarely happen. Since the birth of the GOP, only Hayes-Tilden, Kennedy-Nixon, & Bush-Gore went down to the recounting wire. Truman-Dewey was a surprise result, but not even close.

Mataconis announced he is voting for Gary Johnson, which proves conclusively he is a blithering idiot and fit only to be ignored.

Adjoran on October 28, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Mataconis announced he is voting for Gary Johnson, which proves conclusively he is a blithering idiot and fit only to be ignored.

Adjoran on October 28, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Like steveangell and StoicPatriot?

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Hannity is a fool…an annoyingly repetitious, talking-point-reciting, yapping little lapdog dimwit otherwise known as the “Simpleton’s Rush Limbaugh.”

FIFY

How Levin tolerates this nattering nimrod is beyond my comprehension.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:08 PM

cane_loader on October 28, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Get a grip. What good does it do to sit around and focus on this ‘foul play’ you’re talking about?

Do you seriously think none of this occurred in any of the last several elections?

None of this is new.

What good can possibly come of scaring yourself witless positing doom and gloom scenarios? Will it change the election results one iota? Suddenly make the MSM unbiased? Stop voter fraud?

We go forth with courage and if there is some nefarious shenanigans, and we can prove it, we fight that battle when it comes. Not before.

thatsafactjack on October 28, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Jazz,
IMHO 11/7 will come and we will see a transfer of power. The legal part of that won’t happen until Jan, but it will happen none the less. In the mean time we must remain vigilant in that no less than are very precious liberties and the Republic we love are at stake, period! It will happen because the ruling class has become afraid, not of the mob, (aka the 47%) but the 3% whom they know have always defended this Republic. They fear for their political and material comfort and they know that we have had enough. Were power not to change, the backlash would cost them all their jobs and they know it. It will take some time after this, but eventually they will all be replaced, and hopefully the political ruling class will for the most part go. They all have miscalculated, and they have paid no heed to the quote “Beware the fury of the patient Man”. It will not be quick it will not be painless, but we will eventually become the Republic we were once intended to be, of that I have no doubt.

MarshFox on October 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

How Levin tolerates this nattering nimrod is beyond my comprehension.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Hannity understands repetition. Something the leftists have used for decades to indoctrinate.

His early voting love is idiotic, but to dismiss him out of hand ain’t right.

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 4:15 PM

1. Any delay in finalizing the election will benefit the Left. Democrats lie, cheat, steal, and violate the Constitution with joy and enthusiasm. The Republicans are ball-less wonders who stand flat footed and twitter pated as the Democrats do this.

2. There will be violence in at least several major cities as Obama’s adherents either “celebrate” his win by riots, or “avenge” his loss the same way. If it stays in the center cities, it may burn itself out. If it moves into Middle Class/Republican/Suburban territory, it will be met with violence.

3. Given the data we have now, figuring past the media spin; an Obama win will almost surely be by fraud and cheating. Thus, his government will not be legitimate; with all that implies.

4. Having gotten away with it once, semi-honest elections will be a thing of the past. Don’t expect them in 2014 or 2016.

5. Pray, but do not expect, that the election will be won beyond the margin of cheating on November 6. And realize that the Constitution will not be even moderately secure until Buraq Hussein Obama is no longer president; regardless of the date.

Subotai Bahadur

Subotai Bahadur on October 28, 2012 at 4:17 PM

It’s not going to be as close as they are telling us.

Obama has a History of garnering the Low End of the Margin of error going back to his Illinois State elections.

That is to say if he Polls 47 percent and the Margin of error is 4 he’ll get 43 percent.

I’m of the opinion that a lot of talking heads are going to be as (if not more) bewildered as they were in 1980.

jaydee_007 on October 28, 2012 at 3:21 PM

I agree. Democrats are always over-stated in polls. With Romney up to 50 for days and days in a row in both Gallup and Ras, this thing’s over. And now with Zero pulling the old “suspending his campaign for the storm” business, it tells me he knows it’s over, too.

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Ha.

Doesn’t HotAir.com already have one Eeyore ?

Two is — two too many.

Romney’s going to win this in a landslide. There will be no recount and Ohio’s ‘huge and lengthy sorting process’ of their provisional and absentee ballots won’t make a squirt of difference to that fact.

HotAir.com — Guaranteed Soft & Squishy™ Or Your Money Back

FlatFoot on October 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

How Levin tolerates this nattering nimrod is beyond my comprehension.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Hannity strokes Levin’s ego by calling him “The Great One.” LOL

Deanna on October 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Hannity understands repetition. Something the leftists have used for decades to indoctrinate.

His early voting love is idiotic, but to dismiss him out of hand ain’t right.

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Yeah, yeah. Better on our side than theirs. But he still annoys the hell out of me.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

I suppose I should shouldn’t feel a little bit guilty for saying it, particularly on the pages of a politically oriented publication, but I’m pretty tired of this election administration. It’s been going on roughly since Christmas of 2008 – or at least it feels that way.

That’s more like it.

Cleombrotus on October 28, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Yeah, yeah. Better on our side than theirs. But he still annoys the hell out of me.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

I gots no great love for Hannity.

But he’s effective, like it or not.

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 4:28 PM

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Okay, so I have been out of the loop some here at HA, and not read all of the comments, is that you? The real ManlyRash? OMG! If this is you, SO GLAD TO SEE YOU HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All is right in the world if you are back at HA. And mega, major dittos to Hannity remarks. LMAO!

Wishing you much safety with Sandy headed in your direction if this is the real ManlyRash. If you are a fake ManlyRash, and still living in the Sandy impacted areas, I still wish you well, but do not fake being the real ManlyRash. He is most awesome, and cannot be replicated. :)

———–

KOOLAID2 on October 28, 2012 at 3:54 PM

You are welcome. Thanks for the compliment.

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 4:30 PM

There are almost no scenarios where either man gets a clear, well defined victory on the evening of November 6th without carrying that state.

Not if Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa and/or New Hampshire which is now a real possibility.

I predict that Romney will carry Wisconsin and Iowa. I think we’re in for a couple of unexpected surprises on election night. The story of the 2012 cycle will end up being: How did the polls got it so wrong?

Sheya on October 28, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Okay, so I have been out of the loop some here at HA, and not read all of the comments, is that you? The real ManlyRash? OMG! If this is you, SO GLAD TO SEE YOU HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All is right in the world if you are back at HA. And mega, major dittos to Hannity remarks. LMAO!

Wishing you much safety with Sandy headed in your direction if this is the real ManlyRash. If you are a fake ManlyRash, and still living in the Sandy impacted areas, I still wish you well, but do not fake being the real ManlyRash. He is most awesome, and cannot be replicated. :)

Yes, this is the real Manly Rash. And yes, I expect to be totally f**ked when Sandy plows through the Garden State in the next 24 hours.

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:40 PM

It will over on 11/6 and it will be decisive.
I predict they will call it early.

rollthedice on October 28, 2012 at 3:36 PM

If true, I will be glued to MSNBC to watch Chrissy’s brain finally do the full “Mars Attacks.”

cane_loader on October 28, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Just heard that idiot Jehmu Green say that huuricane Sandy is unfair to Democrats. It would seem that they don’t turn out in bad weather.

katy the mean old lady on October 28, 2012 at 4:47 PM

So, just to change the subject,

I am curious what the overseas reaction in places like the U.K and France will be if 0bama loses. Will we be subjected to a barrage of articles on how once again America proved that it cannot shed its racist past?

cane_loader on October 28, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Both countries have more issues and investigation of racism in 1 Day of professional league soccer than America in a year.

Odie1941 on October 28, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Oh, stop it.

Pork-Chop on October 28, 2012 at 4:51 PM

They need to stop this BS once and for all. They need to enact federal voter ID laws for federal elections. Either vote by absentee ballot or vote at the polling place and that’s it.

Any dead people or felons voting would have their names and ID checked via national database. End this madness already.

RedbonePro on October 28, 2012 at 5:07 PM

ManlyRash on October 28, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Oh I hope, and pray not Manly!

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Romney blowout. The electorate will finally get to unleash their frustration on the empty suit.

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 5:15 PM

If it’s not decided on 11/6 we all know how it will end up.

forest on October 28, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Yep. See Florida 2000 for a historical perspective.

IamDA on October 28, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Yes, the way things are going I may have to break down and put PMSNBC back on my channel list so I can check in with them on Election Night. How sweet their tears will be!

Like steveangell and StoicPatriot?

Lanceman on October 28, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Precisely. A vote for Johnson is a vote for Obama.

Adjoran on October 28, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Libertarians breaking for Mitt in a major way:

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/poll-shows-romney-winning-high-water-mark-for-libertarian-vote/

Interesting info in great detail on Catholics in swing states:

http://www.completecatholicism.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1479#1

Jewish voting information:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/gallup-obama-loses-jewish/2012/06/10/id/441803
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/12/Obama-losing-black-jewish-support
http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-losing-ground-among-jewish-voters/article/1212586#.UGS3abRkg20
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/09/10/poll-shows-obama-getting-lowest-jewish-support-since-jimmy-carter-vote/

And how the pollsters got it wrong in 2010:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/how-well-did-the-pollsters-do-predicting-party-turnout-in-2010/article/2509064?custom_click=rss#.UGNcEbRkg21

Etc:

http://www.aei.org/article/politics-and-public-opinion/elections/2012-campaign-very-different-than-kerry-vs-bush/

http://www.firstthings.com/article/2009/02/005-bwhat-happened-to-the-values-voterb-19

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/230874/55-percent-likely-voters-find-socialist-accurate-label-obama

http://thehill.com/polls/236627-hill-poll-majority-feel-obama-has-changed-country-for-worse

Here is the deal, “Broken Glass Conservatives” are going widely overlooked because they did not turn out for McCain. Value voters who balked in 2008 have no choice but to turn out this time.

It is hard for someone to over look just how many people hate Obamacare, and actually, truly believe he is a socialist. Word. Up. Amazing.

I just do not see this being close. At last I heard there were over 1,200 Black churches openly preaching what a danger Chicago Jesus is to them, and the nation. 19% of the Black vote is turning against the One, and it could go higher. The most GW got was 12%. Even them staying at home hurts his chances.

Sorry to post so many links, but I felt like I needed to back up why I disagree with Jazz, and why others need to not be so negative, or down and out about this election.

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 5:22 PM

IrishEyes on October 28, 2012 at 2:23 PM

And what are the chances that someone too stupid to bring ID with them would have the gumption to bring it back later?

Night Owl on October 28, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Just heard that idiot Jehmu Green say that huuricane Sandy is unfair to Democrats. It would seem that they don’t turn out in bad weather.

katy the mean old lady on October 28, 2012 at 4:47 PM

LOL! Why does that not surprise me?

Night Owl on October 28, 2012 at 5:33 PM

54-46 for Romney.

he may get 370 plus EC votes.

bgibbs1000 on October 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Oh please God, no.

ConservativeLA on October 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM

after 2 yrs of obama we had record turnovers.
now we’ve had 4 yrs and even more people out of work.
I say romney will have well over 300 EV’s.

dmacleo on October 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Just heard that idiot Jehmu Green say that huuricane Sandy is unfair to Democrats. It would seem that they don’t turn out in bad weather.

katy the mean old lady on October 28, 2012 at 4:47 PM

You mean there’s another hurricane coming on 11/6, or is Sandy supposed to hang around for more than a week? :)

scalleywag on October 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM

We have been through this before in 2000. No big deal. At the end of the day, if forced to, Congress will select the President. Guess who they will pick….

percysunshine on October 28, 2012 at 5:44 PM

New PPP poll of NH shows Obama +2, 49-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:48 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Gravis marketing Ohio poll has Obama up 1, 50-49. Romney leads indies by 12. Sample is D+8 (was D+5 in 08, R+5 in 04).
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Thanks to the lame efforts by the Romney ‘independent’ splinter magnets, aka.’bench warmers’, we are certain to keep hope alive in the Democrat camp through election day.

To them I offer a great thanks for contributing not a thing to the effort of kicking out the commie-n-chief.

DannoJyd on October 28, 2012 at 6:06 PM

After the way the Benghazi attack went with the Won watching from afar, this storm may turn out to be even worse then predicted, since he’s sitting in front of the TV again. Will he take responsibility for our safety since FEMA is part of his regime, too?

Kissmygrits on October 28, 2012 at 6:09 PM

OT
Will we be getting a Walking Dead thread tonight?

Michonne and Andrea are meeting the Governor in Woodbury
‘The Walking Dead’ leaves the prison for the ‘nirvana’ of Woodbury

TigerPaw on October 28, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Agreed. I’m sick of this election.

BillCarson on October 28, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Election night is going to be fascinating. It seems like both sides think it will be a blowout in their favor. The lefties are looking at the toplines of all these state polls and they think it’s all over. We think Romney is in great position because of the underlying numbers. The fact that Romney is up double digits with independents in every poll is a terrific sign. I’d rather be Romney right now. But it’s going to be an amazing night. One side is going to have a total meltdown.

RepublicanInMA on October 28, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Another day, more bad OH polls for Romney…

PPP Poll

Obama 51
Romney 47

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Romney blowout. The electorate will finally get to unleash their frustration on the empty suit.

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 5:15 PM

With a vengeance.

rrpjr on October 28, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Another day, more bad OH polls for Romney…

PPP Poll

Obama 51
Romney 47

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:39 PM

You mean the organization that works for DailyKos and HCAN that embarrassingly claimed last week that the race was simultaneously tied both nationally and in North Carolina?

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Romney/Ryan are doing much better than they polls say, they are put out by media. To save face and integrity, they will be more accurate by Wednesday.

Romney will win decisively and they’ll call it early. I will put on MSNBC to watch their heads exploding!
They are trying to diminish our energy to vote for Romney. I will enthusiastically cast my vote this year!

Jazz, wake up and please do not put things like this on the front page, It should not be anywhere except on left wing websites.
I have to double check things before I post, Macs have a tendency to change my words into words I did not intend to write.

carolt2 on October 28, 2012 at 6:46 PM

“Another day, more bad OH polls for Romney…

PPP Poll

Obama 51
Romney 47

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:39 PM

You mean the organization that works for DailyKos and HCAN that embarrassingly claimed last week that the race was simultaneously tied both nationally and in North Carolina?

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 6:44 PM:

This was not one of the ridiculous push-polls for HCAN. You guys have to face reality. Romney is never going to lead in any polls in OH from here on out. And you know why? Because he’s losing. Either it’s all the early money Obama poured into the state in ads or the auto bailout, but there’s nothing Romney can do anymore to move the numbers there.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Probably OT.. but interesting family note.. we are Ohioans.. Niece at college in OH sent in absentee ballot… no problem.. nephew in college in NY.. took absentee ballot to post office.. lady at post office window started ranting to him about being “one of those problem Ohio people”.. obviously none of her damn business.. Their parents, my brother and sister in law, both have connections .. one is elected, one works for another elected official.. their daughter’s absentee ballot has been received.. their son’s … no sign of it… still have time of course, but I have encouraged, and they are planning, on some questioning if his ballot doesn’t arrive… she needs to be reported.. regardless if she did anything “untoward” with his ballot..

vamp57mw on October 28, 2012 at 6:53 PM

This was not one of the ridiculous push-polls for HCAN. You guys have to face reality. Romney is never going to lead in any polls in OH from here on out. And you know why? Because he’s losing. Either it’s all the early money Obama poured into the state in ads or the auto bailout, but there’s nothing Romney can do anymore to move the numbers there.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM

But ignoring the fact that Romney has had a lead in the Gallup national tracking poll every day since 10/10 is also somehow “facing reality?”

Or are you arguing that Romney will somehow win a significant popular vote majority and lose the electoral vote due to turnout in Ohio 5 points more Democratic than will be the case nationally?

You like to quote NumbersMuncher’s twitter selectively, and often to the detriment of the case you are attempting to make. Why not go read his articles over at NRO for once. Look at the facts on the ground before you embarrass yourself trying to tell others to “face reality.”

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 6:54 PM

“Or are you arguing that Romney will somehow win a significant popular vote majority and lose the electoral vote due to turnout in Ohio 5 points more Democratic than will be the case nationally?”

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the EC. If OH was in doubt, there would be some polls showing Obama ahead and some showing Romney ahead. But Romney is almost always the loser (at best tied).

And if you look back to 04, it was at this time that Bush started to lead in the OH polls vs Kerry, when he had trailed the previous few weeks (but did lead in a few). If today is any indication, there is zero movement to Romney in OH, and maybe some to Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:59 PM

I suppose I should feel a little bit guilty for saying it, particularly on the pages of a politically oriented publication, but I’m pretty tired of this election.

Traitor! HEATHEN! CHOCOLATE-CHIP COOKIE EATER!

As for what you said, yeah, me too. I was basically out of it as soon as Rick Santorum conceded, but I’ll vote for Virgil Goode just to make a statement. My only amusement thus far has been seeing the Mittwits struggling to explain away why their guy, rather than easily running away with it on the grounds that he’s “electable,” looks instead like he’s going to lose by coming up short in Ohio.

The polls before the primaries somehow proved that he was a surefire winner, but now, the polls are all evil and biased. Gotta love the logic there. Live by the polls, die by the polls.

Stoic Patriot on October 28, 2012 at 7:03 PM

I find it highly amusing that poll trolls come out so hot, and heavy when other poll evidence is offered up refuting their insanity.

Here is the thing though, all their professing we are going to lose only fires up more of our folks to turn out to nuke their little dreams of communism not going down in one giant ball of Constitution fire.

No matter how many times PPP wishes and dreams, they never refute or argue with the numbers regarding Republican voter enthusiasm. They never touch it with a ten foot pole. LOL!

And here is another little tidbit for poll trolls to freak out over, at least 4 million professed “Christians” have registered to vote in this election. GB had a million Catholics sign up, and Ralph Reed said that at least 3 million, or so he believed from his end had been registered. Approximately 4% of what we call, “value voters” did not support McCain. I believe Bush had 80%, and McCain had 76%. I do not think that is going to be the case with Romney, and on top of it will be new registered, “value voters” to add to the mix.

Sooooo, Kos Kiddies and PPP wishing on a star people, it is you folks who are going to be crying in your Cheerios, not us. Unless of course voter fraud ends up being so epic folks end up in jail. LOL!

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I would add here too that to believe PPP is to ignore what the voters said in the Citizens United deal said. Pat Caddell and the guys spoke strictly with voters who voted for Obama that were mostly Democrats, and Independents. A few, very few were Conservatives. In any case, most of these people were in no way shape, or form going to support Dear Leader. And the hoot to all this was where these folks lived, not in red states, but in swing states. These people were passionate about how they felt, and they have friends, and family members.

Just saying.

:) :) :)

freeus on October 28, 2012 at 7:45 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

PPP Ohio poll has 36% early voters w/ Obama up 27 among them. Right now at most about 20% have voted early. That will skew results big time

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

PPP(D) Ohio poll has Obama up 4, 51-47. Romney up 4 w/indy. Sample is D+8 (was D+5 in 2008, R+5 in 2004). Again, needs better than 08 to win

Ellen Carmichael ‏@ellencarmichael

Regarding PPP polls, worth noting: last poll they ran on Walker recall said “race tightening” w/ Walker leading only by 3. He won by 7.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 7:49 PM

My only amusement thus far has been seeing the Mittwits struggling to explain away why their guy, rather than easily running away with it on the grounds that he’s “electable,” looks instead like he’s going to lose by coming up short in Ohio.

When did electable mean easily running away with it? When you need a strawman to argue against apparently. Obama is electable, but he’s not going to easily run away with it.

The polls before the primaries somehow proved that he was a surefire winner, but now, the polls are all evil and biased. Gotta love the logic there. Live by the polls, die by the polls.

Stoic Patriot

Yeah, except they didn’t, and pretty much the only people I’ve seen make that argument are pouters like you.

xblade on October 28, 2012 at 7:58 PM

“Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 7:49 PM”

Even if the early vote percentage is all screwed up and much higher than it should be, all the polls show Obama cleaning Romney’s clock with those voters.

The Romney early voting/GOTV is pathetic. Not as bad as McCain’s non-effort, but still inexcusably bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 8:06 PM

When did electable mean easily running away with it? When you need a strawman to argue against apparently. Obama is electable, but he’s not going to easily run away with it.

It meant it since the Mittwits have been saying that Romney will crush Obama — which they’ve been saying all along.

The polls before the primaries somehow proved that he was a surefire winner, but now, the polls are all evil and biased. Gotta love the logic there. Live by the polls, die by the polls.

Stoic Patriot

Yeah, except they didn’t, and pretty much the only people I’ve seen make that argument are pouters like you.

xblade on October 28, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Except that they did. We were supposed to go with Romney because he was performing best against Obama in head-to-head matchups in early polling. That was the argument of electability that consumed so much of the Republican primaries, and the counter-charge that no one else could possibly win (which was funny when Santorum for a short while was doing better than Romney head-to-head against Obama).

Stoic Patriot on October 28, 2012 at 8:08 PM

We Buckeyes have to keep things out of the Margin of Democrat Fraud™. I’m a poll observer. Bring it, Zombie Democrats.

OhioCoastie on October 28, 2012 at 8:11 PM

This was not one of the ridiculous push-polls for HCAN. You guys have to face reality. Romney is never going to lead in any polls in OH from here on out. And you know why? Because he’s losing. Either it’s all the early money Obama poured into the state in ads or the auto bailout, but there’s nothing Romney can do anymore to move the numbers there.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Extra-super-duper-DU trolling powers activate!

C’mon……activate! *tap tap*

Activate?

*sigh*

98ZJUSMC on October 28, 2012 at 8:15 PM

The idiot lying troll obviously hasn’t seen the latest Ohio poll show a tie. Romney is going to clean Obama’s clock, it will be a massive repudiation of The One.

Adjoran on October 28, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Heck just the clean up a mass funerals from the riots alone are going to take a lot of time.

I suspect there will be riots regardless of the election results.

If Obama wins it will just be celebratory rioting and looting.

esnap on October 28, 2012 at 8:17 PM

God forbid.

natasha333 on October 28, 2012 at 8:19 PM

“Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 7:49 PM”

Even if the early vote percentage is all screwed up and much higher than it should be, all the polls show Obama cleaning Romney’s clock with those voters.

The Romney early voting/GOTV is pathetic. Not as bad as McCain’s non-effort, but still inexcusably bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 8:06 PM

This, of course, before DUtroll heard about Independents.

How do they work, again?

Sticking to D+~

98ZJUSMC on October 28, 2012 at 8:19 PM

“The idiot lying troll obviously hasn’t seen the latest Ohio poll show a tie. Romney is going to clean Obama’s clock, it will be a massive repudiation of The One.

Adjoran on October 28, 2012 at 8:16 PM”

There have been 3 polls out the last two days. One showed a tie, one showed Obama +1 and one showed Obama +4.

Romney is losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 8:23 PM

So stock up on coffee aspirin

If the peeps are zombied enough to need recounts on this one then by all means let them recount until 2028. The one and only reason elections in the last 12 years have been squeekers is because of manipulation. The system isn’t broken, it is pulverized.

Limerick on October 28, 2012 at 8:34 PM

But maybe it may be wise to pick up the tiny size bottle of Gentleman Jack or Crown or something.

Nov. 6 is going to be hella streesful.

cane_loader on October 28, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Pick up some Knob Creek, or, (if you can find it,) Green Spot Irish Whiskey.

massrighty on October 28, 2012 at 8:37 PM

RepublicanInMA on October 28, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Where in MA? If you don’t mind answering – be as vague as you wish…

massrighty on October 28, 2012 at 8:46 PM

It won’t be over for a while in the sense that there will be depressed Obots jumping out of windows for weeks as reality sets in, but the election will be decisive Nov 6th.

Southernblogger on October 28, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Hmmm. Sounds like ‘shovel-ready jobs’.

Solaratov on October 28, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Watch the way the Obama campaign behaves. All they’re trying to do is keep their own base enthused enough to go to the polls. My take is that it’s a losing battle. 300+ Romney.

claudius on October 28, 2012 at 9:32 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Bottom line of PPPs OH, FL, NH polls: If Obama gets much better turnout than 08, he will win by less than he did in 08. Think about that.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 9:44 PM

IT’S OVER, ROVER!

(or maybe not; who’s to say?)

Oh, ME?

It.

Is.

Over.

hillbillyjim on October 28, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Mitt should get his own Cairo Speech ready.

Everything Obama said, reverse it.

profitsbeard on October 28, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Well, that woud be his Jerusalem speech :)

jimver on October 28, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Still not optimistic about Ohio (especially the early voting prior to Romney’s resurgence), but I’m keeping my hopes up. Still think it it’s too close to call.

JFS61 on October 28, 2012 at 10:25 PM

It only wont’ be over if Obama and his supporters rebel against the election results.

If they do, it is the duty of the American Citizen to dispatch them.

wildcat72 on October 28, 2012 at 10:41 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 5:48 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:04 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:39 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 6:59 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 8:06 PM
gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 8:23 PM

I just don’t see the point of you.
Everyone knows who you are, and you’re not swaying a single vote or discouraging anyone.
Believe me, there are at least two liberal sites/Twitterers that know me, and I’m giddily posting once or twice a week and will happily return and gloat with President Elect Romney. I don’t sit all day and troll, nor will I return after the election and troll for hours.

You think we’ll forget you if Obama is re-elected (hardy har)?

Marcus on October 28, 2012 at 11:14 PM

Landslide.

Ronnie on October 28, 2012 at 11:38 PM

“I just don’t see the point of you.
Everyone knows who you are, and you’re not swaying a single vote or discouraging anyone.
Believe me, there are at least two liberal sites/Twitterers that know me, and I’m giddily posting once or twice a week and will happily return and gloat with President Elect Romney. I don’t sit all day and troll, nor will I return after the election and troll for hours.

You think we’ll forget you if Obama is re-elected (hardy har)?

Marcus on October 28, 2012 at 11:14 PM”

Not trying to sway any votes or change any minds.

Just telling you guys what reality is in this election.

And I will deserve kudos from every single one of you if I’ve been right all along.

One of the big stories following the Obama victory will be how Josh Jordan (NumbersMuncher) was proven to be a fraudulent spin machine…same with Adrian Gray and D.M. Hawkins. If the GOP ever wants to win a Presidential election again, you will need legit, honest, reality-based analysis. Any time a good Obama poll comes out, they immediately dismiss it and say it’s illegitimate.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:53 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Fine! See you on November 7th!

(And if Romney wins, Nate Silver will be proven a libbie hack on crack)

Marcus on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 PM

‘Fine! See you on November 7th!

(And if Romney wins, Nate Silver will be proven a libbie hack on crack)

Marcus on October 28, 2012 at 11:59 PM”

You are absolutely correct. Silver will be exposed as partisan hack if Romney wins.

There is no middle ground now. Silver has it a lock for Obama. Josh Jordan (NumbersMuncher) says all the OH polls are wrong and Romney will not only win that, but also NH, CO and probably WI and IA.

IMO, the early vote is burying Romney in OH, IA and NV, and his totals on election day won’t be enough to overcome the banked numbers Obama already has.

It’s interesting here in WI there is very little energy in early voting on either side. In fact,there is very little energy for anything connected with the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:08 AM

It’s interesting here in WI there is very little energy in early voting on either side. In fact,there is very little energy for anything connected with the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:08 AM

How interesting. No Obamamania? I’ve noticed here in Texas that since early voting has started there have been winding lines, at least there were when I voted Saturday, and the parking lot of the courthouse has been over-flow daily. But you know we loathe your guy, and this is our first chance for a direct vote against his agenda. Now explain again how early voting everywhere else is “burying” Romney.

Marcus on October 29, 2012 at 12:36 AM

“It’s interesting here in WI there is very little energy in early voting on either side. In fact,there is very little energy for anything connected with the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:08 AM

How interesting. No Obamamania? I’ve noticed here in Texas that since early voting has started there have been winding lines, at least there were when I voted Saturday, and the parking lot of the courthouse has been over-flow daily. But you know we loathe your guy, and this is our first chance for a direct vote against his agenda. Now explain again how early voting everywhere else is “burying” Romney.

Marcus on October 29, 2012 at 12:36 AM”

I think the recall took the energy out of both parties in WI for this election. At the UW football game on Saturday, I didn’t see a single button for Obama or Romney. In 08, there were a ton of people wearing Obama buttons/stickers and quite a few McCain/Palin buttons, as well.

In the end, Obama will win WI by 2 pts, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 29, 2012 at 12:43 AM

If the GOP ever wants to win a Presidential election again, you will need legit, honest, reality-based analysis. Any time a good Obama poll comes out, they immediately dismiss it and say it’s illegitimate.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:53 PM

So I’m guessing you think OBama is somehow reality based?
I’m thinking you may not be based in reality.

I think Americans are tired of being lied to & many of the easily fooled, who are good people, just ignorant & without a clue, voted for Obama bcs they wanted others to think well of them & perhaps truly thought a half black man sold to them as a savior could somehow fix America’s socialist problems.
Instead they let the devil in the front door.
Polls are things used to manipulate public opinion.
So in that sense, they can affect things.
But I believe, based on my experiences in real time, that people want a real leader. And now that they know Obama is not one, only the hard left is in the tank for him.
The rest are fleeing to Romney bcs no one wants to side with a loser.

Badger40 on October 29, 2012 at 12:44 AM

Not trying to sway any votes or change any minds.

gumbyandpokey on October 28, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Why do you like socialism, which is communism?

Badger40 on October 29, 2012 at 12:46 AM

eeyore=pagehits+ad$=bs

sablegsd on October 29, 2012 at 12:51 AM

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