Today’s dose of cold reality, courtesy of Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/

Summarizing: battleground state polls have a good track record in presidential elections. If a presidential candidate is trailing in a battleground state by more than 1% on election night or even ten days out, history suggests he will lose. In 2008, Obama managed to beat the odds in IN despite trailing by 1.4% in the RCP average while McCain managed to catch up in MO despite being down by 1.4% with ten days to go. Now, what does poor Mitt have to do? Obama’s lead in OH, WI, IA and NV is in the 2-2.4% range according to RealClearPolitics. Romney is trailing by less than a point in NH while the candidates are tied on CO, VA. That’s quite a lot of states that he needs to win despite currently being down in the polls.

Speaking about RealClearPolitics, have you guys checked the recent trend?:-)

10/22 New Hampshire Romney »»» Obama Obama 281 – Romney 257
10/26 Colorado Romney »»» Obama Obama 290 – Romney 248

Next on the list: Virginia… Obama has just erased Romney’s lead and the candidates are tied there again. Purple Strategies, JZ Analytics/Newsmax, Gravis and Zogby all claim the race is now an exact tie while Washington Post reports Obama is up by 4%.

MARCU$

If Todd Akin is elected to the Senate and Willard is elected President, and with a Republican Congress, Women will be forced to wear burkas, rape will be legal, and any woman that is raped will be stoned for being an adulteress.

Points out how stupid and delusional liberal crowd is, the one that claims (supposed) superiority in in education. Can’t imagine being an adult and actually believing this utter crap. And scientists still insist on theory of evolution?

Romney draws 12,000 in Defiance, Ohio Population 16,484

Barry BAMSTAHHHHHHH!!!!! YOU DA MANNNNNNNNNNN BAMMMMMMMY BABYYYY!!! LOVE YA BARRY OL BUDDY OL PALLLLLLL!!!!!! YAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

cat_ on October 5:03

cableguy615 on October 27, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Romney and Ryan drew 6,000 here in Henderson, NV during work hours. Hussein drew about 3,000 during evening Katy Perry concert while news media reported “13,000″ without any shred of proof (no photos, no videos, nothing but a claim). NV is more in play for R/R than media wants to admit.

In the end, commies never win…ever. You’d think they’d have learned that by now.
In their heart-of-heart’s, pinko’s don’t really think they deserve to win. Their innate “self-loathing” keeps them from believing they deserve anything but misery.

They only way they even get CLOSE to succeeding to “change the world” is to lie about who they really are and what they really want to do. Sooner or later, either they accidentally tell the truth about who they really are, or their self-loathing overtakes them.

History is littered with the corpses of the failed marxist regimes…

Strike Hornet on October 27, 2012 at 4:32 AM

Not to rain on your parade, but care to name one that failed? Save for some Eastern Europe states that used to be capitalist even under Soviet control (private property, private business, etc) that were, in effect, not really communist. But, sure, name one. Europe is rapidly moving through mild socialist to heavy socialist and on the road to communist states.

Problem is that it is much easier to convince people to get something for free on the backs of others who work for it rather than the other way around. 47% and all that. Actually, 47% and growing…

Barry BAMSTAHHHHHHH!!!!! YOU DA MANNNNNNNNNNN BAMMMMMMMY BABYYYY!!! LOVE YA BARRY OL BUDDY OL PALLLLLLL!!!!!! YAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

cat_ on October 5:03

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher With PPP tracking updated, Romney is up average .8 overall, leads indys by 10.8 and Democrat advantage is 4.6. Lining up nicely for Romney.

NumbersMuncher ‏

‏@NumbersMuncher Take out CNN and Rasmussen OH polls and Romney leads indys on avg by 13.4 and is down on avg 2.3 with a turnout that is 2.8 more than 08(!).

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher@JayCostTWS Exactly.. and I don’t know why everyone assumes this year is going to be better. Romney winning indys on avg by 10+ yet losing?!

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher PPP daily tracker stays tied at 48%, but sample moved from D+4 to D+6. As such, Romney grew his lead with independents from 10 to 12%.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher As I’ve said all along- if O can beat 08 turnout he will win, but he won’t. If turnout is halfway between 04 and 08 (even), Romney wins big.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher@baseballcrank Umm… I would think you’re right. His split in OH is 39R/38D/23I… so that makes a lot of sense.Wish that was broken down.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Great point from @baseballcrank re:Ras OH & indy. Ras has only 23% ind in OH, so he probably leans indys into Rs/Ds. Leaves CNN all alone..

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Polls in RCP avg of Ohio in 04 in same timeframe as now had Kerry +.7 and he lost by 2.1. And that’s without oversampling of early voters…

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher In current nat’l polls Romney is +10.6 with indys. In Ohio its R+10.4. If Ohio was going to be far off from nat’l, you’d see a drop w/indys.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@OrwellForce Yup. I’m nervous about Ohio, but everyone should be. I just don’t see how the polls can be right vs all other elements. R wins.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@DLoesch Incumbents at 45% do not usually end up so well either…

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@AndrewBoucher It’s definitely way more likely than Dems getting near their 2008 advantage. That’s what should scare Obama to no end.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher If you think that these national polls with Romney trending upward won’t translate to OH: Last 9 elections GOP outperforms nat’l vote in OH.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Only polls in last week w/ Obama tied/leading have Dems w/ 6+ turnout advantage (08 was 7). Gallup says it will be R+1. pic.twitter.com/NinTsKnl

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen swing state poll (7-day) has Romney +6, 51-45. Rom up 15 w/ independents. It’s Romney’s biggest lead (6%) and day (51%) yet.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Romney’s lead with independents in last seven national polls to give that indy #s: 15.4. Seems high, but trends keep moving up.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Updated chart of Romneys lead, lead w/ indies and Dem party ID advantage. Obama’s only leads w/ indies are two oldest. pic.twitter.com/eKJzEpTq

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen daily has Obama’s approval down to 47-52. Follows Gallup in dropping approval.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen has Romney up 4, 50-46 today. Romney up 23 points among independents. D+4 sample.

Another interesting look at what’s going on now in Ohio. I’d tell Gumby to read this, but it wouldn’t fit his narrative.

ShadowsPawn on October 27, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Yeah, someone (either Rational Thought or RWM) has posted the difference in numbers on here before and all gumby has to say is the standard lib talking point of Obama’s ground game is unprecedented and the auto bailout helped Obama in Ohio. Well I’ve debunked the last part at least 10 times to at least 3 different trolls and they either ignore it or they just go back to the other talking point.

The people who need to be really worried about Ohio are dems though. The sequestration is the huge elephant in the room that is Ohio. I don’t think they realize how big of a deal that is in Ohio. I mentioned Wright Patt, but I forgot to mention the Defense Supply Center Columbus. Military is a lot bigger of a deal than the auto industry.

Another interesting take on history of Ohio voting

http://electioninsight.biz/news.html

Animal60 on October 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Another interesting look at what’s going on now in Ohio. I’d tell Gumby to read this, but it wouldn’t fit his narrative.

http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html

http://electioninsight.biz/news.html

This is more or less a public service announcement to everyone freaking out about Ohio and listening to the trolls about how much the auto bailout helped Ohio.

The amount of auto industry jobs that GM and Chrysler provides in Ohio only accounts for one third of all of the auto industry jobs in the state. Honda and Ford provide the other two thirds. I really don’t think the workers of Honda and Ford or their family and friends are thanking Obama for anything.

The sequestration is a whole lot bigger of an issue for Obama in Ohio than the auto bailout ever could be. WPAFB (Wright Patterson Air Force Base) is the largest Air Force base in the country. Dayton’s economy is very dependent on it. Not just the base, but the surrounding companies also.

This is coming from someone with first hand knowledge. My hometown is Marysville which is where Honda and their supporting companies are and I went to Wright State University and as the name suggests it is right next to Wright Patterson.

Quit buying into the trolls idiotic talking points when they probably can’t name a city in the state outside of Cleveland let alone know anything else about the state. Listen to the people on the ground in the state. I no longer live in Ohio, but like I said, I still go back about every 3-4 months because both my wife and I have family that still live there. There are other posters here that are on the ground there and know what’s going on though.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 9:54 PM

MobileVideoEngineer…. thanks for giving me hope :-) Yes, outside of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus and Youngstown i do not know too many places in Ohio. I went to grad school in Western NY and after studying, working and living in the US for 9 plus years went back home in 2010.

I have no clue at this point as to how things are going to pan out in Ohio or for that matter in any other battleground state, but after reading your post, I am more hopeful. Thanks.

Obama War On Coal Key To Mitt Romney’s Ohio Hopes

– IBD

Romney needs to pull a magical trick to win 270 EV’s – in Ohio, he is betting on a certain few counties going for him big time – i am not saying that it wont happen . How ever there are two big assumptions that Romney’s strategy is based on

A)He is relying on Obama voters of 2008 not to come back and vote for Obama again.
– IMHO, this is not a good strategy.Sorry to say this, but there are many people in the US today who are of voting age but who have no business being inside a polling both – these are the freeloaders and unemployed grads who helped Obama win last time.

B)He is relying on McCain voters of 2008 to not vote for Obama even though Obama backed the auto bail out and has been hitting Romney HARD on this issue.
– This is probably the toughest for Romney.If enough Ohioans are appreciative of what Obama did when it comes to the bailouts then Romney is going to have no chance.

What Romney has done at this point is to make the race competitive – it was not looking that way about 3 weeks back. He still has a very steep hill to climb.

But here is the worst part of it all – he could win the popular vote at the national level and that may still not matter as he cannot crack the electoral college fortress that Obama has built for himself by using the black and Hispanic communities

looked on twitter and CAC and NumberCruncher are discounting it. I am not a poll wiz so I don’t know what to think. I just feel better that there is finally a poll showing Romney ahead.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Agreed.. Never heard of this polling company before and the results seem a bit skewed.

2004 made me freak out.. Big time. My main fear is that we’ll all be in happy places during the day, but get a rude awakening around 12 AM when Ohio and Wisconsin don’t flip. Even sadder is that it now seems likely that Mittens will win the popular vote.

Mittens should be parked in Ohio trying to flip that state and Ryan should be parked in WI for the next week.

They only way they even get CLOSE to succeeding to “change the world” is to lie about who they really are and what they really want to do. Sooner or later, either they accidentally tell the truth about who they really are, or their self-loathing overtakes them.

History is littered with the corpses of the failed marxist regimes…

To be reported as 49% R / 47% O. I wonder why they adjusted their sample…

What’s crazy is that it’s actually a 41% Dem / 35% Repub sample. They have Indys breaking to Romney by 12%, 52-40%. With a 41% base, Obama can only muster 48%, which is really bad news for him.

Now, 41% Dem is crazy, nothing like that will happen, but let’s assume they’re correct about the margin (which is unlikely) and adjust it down to the 2008 range. A 37%D/31%R/32%I turnout is a win for Romney.

At D+6%: 48.6% Romney vs 47.8% Obama
At D+5%: 49% Romney vs 47.4% Obama
At D+4%: 49.4% Romney vs 47% Obama
At D+3%: 49.8% Romney vs 46.6% Obama
(all assuming 32% I)

Remember the sinking feeling you felt when Walker won decisively after you declared on here that he was a “goner”?

Remember when there was no Big Bird bounce, no VP debate bounce, no 2nd or 3rd debate bounces, even though each time you predicted there would be one?

Remember when you gleefully declared that the jobs report would result in Obama pulling away in the polls? I believe you said it would be an “atomic bomb” that would detonate the Romney campaign in a matter of days.

Each and every time you have been wrong. Your wishful thinking was just that.

The sinking feeling you had each time you watched your Democrat candidates flounder will be how you will feel in 13 days. You should be used to the feeling by now. The worst part for you is that you’ll know that you wasted so much of your time posting comments on all these sites only to end up having to listen to Obama’s concession speech.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Ouch! You almost have me feeling sorry for old Gumby, dammit!

Almost.

Oh, you will be.

You will be.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Channeling Yoda are we, Chump?

He’s a muppet, you know.

“So, who are you voting for this year?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:24 PM”

Romney

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Lucking Fire.

I’m sure you won’t read the story. That’s ok. I’ll bet a lot of Ohio voters will.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I’m sure you had wished I didn’t read it.

Because it says this:

A Small Gaffe in the Grand Scheme of Things

As gaffes go, Romney’s probably doesn’t even make the top 10 list for this presidential campaign. In all likelihood, some staffer working quickly made a mistake, and Romney simply ran with it.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………….

“So, who are you voting for this year?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:24 PM”

Romney

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Lies make baby Jesus cry, you know.

Four more years? Sounds good to me!

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Why?

Do you not have to drive?
Do you not need money?
Do you not rely on consumers for a living?

Oh, you must work for the government!

Really, do you not understand that the bill for all of Obama’s waste starts coming due this next fiscal year? And this guy hasn’t floated a worthwhile budget–that has garnered a SINGLE supporting vote in the Senate–in over 3 years?

If President Petty-Cash-isn’t-enough-for-me wants any kind of successful legacy, he needs to hope for a Romney win that will allow Mitt to restore some better financial footing for our country.

Because if Barack wins, he will have a legacy alright, but it will be brief.