Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

posted at 4:41 pm on October 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is the first time Romney’s been at least even with O in any Wisconsin poll since August, when he led by a point. The state’s not technically a must-win, but it’s mighty close: If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line. And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat. If he doesn’t, then Wisconsin is a must.

Ten days to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided…

A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

He leads by six on the economy, another good sign. The bad news this afternoon? CNN’s new poll of Ohio has O up 50/46. And there aren’t a lot of undecideds left:

CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends. E.g.:

Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too: The campaign is telling wealthy donors that they’ve been holding off on a blast of ad spending in key states until the final week of the campaign to maximize effect. All of that is reason for hope. The wrinkle is that, of the last 11 polls taken in Ohio, Romney has led in exactly none of them. He’s tied in three and trails O in the other eight. Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days. If, hypothetically, he doesn’t win either Ohio or Wisconsin, then we’re in longshot territory even if he ekes it out in Colorado. He’d need to win either Iowa + Nevada + New Hampshire, or he’d have to pull a major upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s a tall order if the vote is tipping against him narrowly in more hotly contested states like OH or WI. Luckily, it’s not tipping against him in Wisconsin right now. Virginia + Colorado + Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa wins him the presidency, with or without Ohio.

Via Breitbart, here’s Scarborough wondering how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win. As Geraghty says, it seems increasingly likely that Romney’s going to win the popular vote, which almost always means winning the presidency. If he doesn’t, it’d be thanks to a herculean feat by Obama’s organization to drag apathetic liberals out to the polls.

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If there was this great shift to the GOP, it would be reflected in at least some of the polls. And, yet, Obama always leads now.

I remember the same kind of justification on election day 08 in trying to buck up the troops and say McCain was doing really well.

If there was any enthusiasm for Romney in OH, he would be even with Obama in early voting, and he’s far from it. Each early vote is a sign of enthusiasm, and Romney is way behind.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I asked you specific questions, RuPoll.

I’ll bet you any amount of money (and I actually have it) that you won’t find me saying that McCain was going to win going into the 2008 election. I KNEW he wasn’t going to win.

As for EV, you proved how definitive that is with your posts concerning Walker.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 6:55 PM

RuPoll, if Obama loses, will you eat this in one sitting?

It’ll take the meaning of “comfort food” to a whole new level.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Do you think we’ll be lucky enough that it leaves?

gophergirl on October 26, 2012 at 6:55 PM

No, he will need days to call all of us racists for not voting for the King and that we were not worthy of his greatness.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:01 PM

“I’ll bet you any amount of money (and I actually have it) that you won’t find me saying that McCain was going to win going into the 2008 election. I KNEW he wasn’t going to win.”

I didn’t say you specifically. I distinctly remember Ace and Hugh Hewitt on election day (and long before)using all sorts of stats, facts, figures, “inside” info, reports from on the ground, etc, to say why McCain was neck and neck with Obama in Ohio and stood a good chance of winning. And now we know that it was all just a lie…an intentional lie, not mistake…to motivate the partisans.

That’s what is going on this very day by people like numbersmuncher and DB Hawkins on twitter, tying themselves in a million knots to explain why the bad polls are really good polls.

I honestly feel bad for anyone who buys into the spin, when the obvious facts are there in every single poll now showing Romney losing. You should not play with people’s emotions and then have them crestfallen on election night when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Politicians come and go, the cesspool wastepit disaster-land known as Wisconsin is forever.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Name one thing that Minnesota has ever accomplished?

- Wisconsin
Discovered vitamin D
Discovered Warfarin
WiCell was awarded the NIH contract to develop the first National Stem Cell Bank (NSCB).

Birthplace of the Republican party (Ripon, WI)

Birthplace of the progressive movement (La-Follette)
First place to have collective bargaining for PEU
the first effective workplace injury compensation law

Wisconsin is home to the world’s oldest operational racetrack
Wisconsin is home to the nation’s oldest operating velodrome

Wisconsin produces about a quarter of America’s cheese, leading the nation in cheese production

nation’s first comprehensive statewide primary election system

First regimen of troops for the Civil war.

We still have Paul Bunyan’s axe.

Green_Bay_Packers on October 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Is Wisconsin even part of the U.S. anymore, and if so…why?

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Not to make excuses or say whether Romney will or will not win Ohio, but there are some necessary truths that need to be told about these 3 polls:

ARG-D+9 sample. No chance the Ohio electorate is even half that titled for Dems. Yet even with that sample, the President can only muster a 2 point advantage.

Purple Strategies- D+6 sample. The best the President can do is have a 2 point advantage with this one as well, falling 4 points short of 50%.

CNN-This one is the most interesting and shows the problem with trying to account for early voting. It has a sample of D+3, which seems reasonable. Yet… the President leads by mid single digits with Independents? I find that suspect, especially when you see how Indies are breaking for Romney in almost every other poll. In addition, as I eluded to, there seems to be a constant problem with polls trying to account for early voting, and this poll is no exception. Note the following:

“Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

https://twitter.com/NumbersMun

Here’s the math:

O: 826K + 1,936K = 2.762 million

R: 532K + 2,244K = 2.776 million”

Yet somehow the President leads in this poll. In addition, less than 1 million people have voted early according to the elections website for the state of Ohio, yet this poll is stating that 1.4 million have.

Look… at the end of the day I am not sure who will win Ohio. I would literally not be surprise by EITHER result. However, if we are going to look at polls, we need to call them what they tend to be about 80% of the time: garbage.

Indy82 on October 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Name one thing that Minnesota has ever accomplished?

Green_Bay_Packers on October 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

1) Didn’t allow itself to become a national embarrassment like Wisconsin.

2) See #1

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

For many elections, the dems have said the independents are the key, without independents you can’t win, and they were right…now Mitt holds a double digit lead in the independents…how can the dems possibly win?

right2bright on October 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Boy I really hope Obama pulls this out. I hate to see him in office for another 4 years but I’ll LOVE seeing Crybaby Boehner and Mitch McConnell resign their leadership posts in Congress.

They’ll do it too – with no establishment Ayatollah in the White House, the Tea Party Republicans will finally find their balls and put real men in those positions who will uphold the constitution.

HondaV65 on October 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

it’s going to a looong twelve days…

equanimous on October 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

1) Didn’t allow itself to become a national embarrassment like Wisconsin.

2) See #1

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:09 PM

1. Al Franken

2. Jesse Ventura

3. See #1

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM

That’s what is going on this very day by people like numbersmuncher and DB Hawkins on twitter, tying themselves in a million knots to explain why the bad polls are really good polls.

I honestly feel bad for anyone who buys into the spin, when the obvious facts are there in every single poll now showing Romney losing. You should not play with people’s emotions and then have them crestfallen on election night when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Wait, what??? RuPoll, you are trashing Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher? LOL. I had never heard of the guy until you started praising him….this was back when Obama was winning and was a sure thing. Then, I started following him and looking into his work. I’ll have to add him to your MiniTru post.

RuPoll, The Obama Poll-Troll (revision in progress)

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Here in New Mexico, we brought you the Bomb and Green Chile – beat that.

Who needs cheese or Badgers, or Gophers.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:14 PM

“Politico’s Adrian Gray demolishes O’bamna’s Ohio early voting “math”…

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 7:05 PM”

He’s a GOP partisan. You won’t get the truth from him and he’ll be saying how great the turnout is on election day and how Romney is meeting all his goals/benchmarks, and then when the polls close and Ohio is called for Obama, it will be evident you were lied to.

This is the 08 crap all over again.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:15 PM

I honestly feel bad for anyone who buys into the spin, when the obvious facts are there in every single poll now showing Romney losing. You should not play with people’s emotions and then have them crestfallen on election night when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:03 PM

From Del’s link that you no doubt read.

Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

12. More. Days.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Here’s the math:

O: 826K + 1,936K = 2.762 million

R: 532K + 2,244K = 2.776 million”

Yet somehow the President leads in this poll. In addition, less than 1 million people have voted early according to the elections website for the state of Ohio, yet this poll is stating that 1.4 million have.

Look… at the end of the day I am not sure who will win Ohio. I would literally not be surprise by EITHER result. However, if we are going to look at polls, we need to call them what they tend to be about 80% of the time: garbage.

Indy82 on October 26, 2012 at 7:06 PM

The CNN poll had 36% claim to have already voted and they went 59-38. That works out to 2.1 million early voters and a 200,000 vote lead for Obama which works with their topline number.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Here’s a dumb question:

If someone votes early by mail, what prevents them from voting again on election day in person? And will their votes be counted right away from the absentee AND precinct?

I’ve never voted absentee before and I’m not sure how that works. (I am not trying to vote twice!) :)

Nicole Coulter on October 26, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Now, got the guts to accept the bet? And if you want to make it higher/lower, just name the amount. I will enjoy taking whatever money you will wager. I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

Name the amount.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I believe that placing bets with other commenter’s may be a violation of the TOS here at HA.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Gumbey’s entire sorry and trollish existence is a violation of the human decency rules.

jimver on October 26, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Quote not strike….

jimver on October 26, 2012 at 7:19 PM

1. Al Franken

2. Jesse Ventura

3. See #1

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Like Feingold in WI, Ventura has exited the scene and, Gaia willing, Franken will soon follow.

But Wisconsin, the fount of all evil, will continue.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:19 PM

“Wait, what??? RuPoll, you are trashing Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher? LOL. I had never heard of the guy until you started praising him….this was back when Obama was winning and was a sure thing. Then, I started following him and looking into his work. I’ll have to add him to your MiniTru post.

RuPoll, The Obama Poll-Troll (revision in progress)

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM”

I never praised him, I put his stuff here since he’s often the first to report a poll.

But when every single Ohio poll he reports on is flawed in some way according to his analysis, you know he’s a partisan hack trying to spin bad news as good. The partisan sample, early voting margin/total, etc, is always so screwed up that Romney is really ahead in all the polls. Sorry, but that’s not reality.

And if it turned out to be true, then ALL the pollsters should be on trial for fraud since ALL the pollsters now say Obama will win Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Here’s a dumb question:

If someone votes early by mail, what prevents them from voting again on election day in person? And will their votes be counted right away from the absentee AND precinct?

I’ve never voted absentee before and I’m not sure how that works. (I am not trying to vote twice!) :)

Nicole Coulter on October 26, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I’m not sure how other states do it, but in Ohio just before the election they print off a list of voters in that precint with those whose absentee ballot already arrived essentially crossed off to indicate they already voted. They could drop an absentee ballot in the mail on election day and then vote, but absentee ballots that arrive after election day are cross checked with who voted on election day.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Can anyone explain why The Atlantic magazine is filled with predictions that Obama is going to win and trounce Romney? Just look at their website. Want to weep….

chai on October 26, 2012 at 7:21 PM

But Wisconsin, the fount of all evil, will continue.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Sounds like you have an axe to grind. Or at least would if they gave Paul Bunyan’s axe back….

I don’t know for sure. Maybe you have other axes and are grinding those?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:22 PM

The pro-Obama trolls like GumbyandPokey are in a frenzy today.

They know the end is near for their guy Obama.

Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin. Count on it.

Let’s keep working to make sure Romney’s margin of victory is as big as possible.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Can anyone explain why The Atlantic magazine is filled with predictions that Obama is going to win and trounce Romney? Just look at their website. Want to weep….

chai on October 26, 2012 at 7:21 PM

It’s been shown that people are influenced by predictions; stupid as it sounds there are people who vote for a candidate in part because they expect that candidate to win and they themselves want to support a winner. The Atlantic is trying to affect the will of voters, not reflect it.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

The pro-Obama trolls like GumbyandPokey are in a frenzy today.

They know the end is near for their guy Obama.

Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin. Count on it.

Let’s keep working to make sure Romney’s margin of victory is as big as possible.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:22 PM

What are the trolls going to do for money after the election?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Sounds like you have an axe to grind. Or at least would if they gave Paul Bunyan’s axe back….

I don’t know for sure. Maybe you have other axes and are grinding those?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:22 PM

All this axe talk reminds me of Ed Gein, he was from Wisconsin, right? Well I suppose WI needs to be famous for something, might as well be Ed Gein.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Obama has been campaigning for 3.5 years. His record of having campaigned longer and partied harder and played more golf than any president in history will surely win him the election. Oh yea, and he personally shot Osama Bin Laden in the face and dumped him in the Ocean and his Hollywood cronies made a film about his heroic actions. Oh, and has he mentioned that he’s created FIVE MILLION JOBS and that women can get free mammograms from Planned Parenthood and Sandra Fluke has been saved from ever having to purchase another condom for as long as she lives? Who could beat this astonishing record! /

scalleywag on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

But Wisconsin, the fount of all evil, will continue.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Still wating for that Vikings superbowl victory eh?

Green_Bay_Packers on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Still wating for that Vikings superbowl victory eh?

Green_Bay_Packers on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Ouch. That one is going to leave a mark.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:26 PM

And if it turned out to be true, then ALL the pollsters should be on trial for fraud since ALL the pollsters now say Obama will win Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Really? Please produce the links of ALL the pollsters saying that Obama will win Ohio.

And, you did praise him.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:26 PM

“Who could beat this astonishing record! /

scalleywag on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM”

Probably anyone but Mitt Romney.

I’m sure Santorum could have actually run a decent early GOTV effort so he had a fighting chance in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Still wating for that Vikings superbowl victory eh?

Green_Bay_Packers on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

You need to come around on Sunday more often:

Steelers 49 – Enemy 3

Bishop on October 21, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I don’t understand why everyone is so worried. The news on the ground is bad for Obama. He is behind in every metric we could possibly quantify and his lead has been maintained by heavy D+ splits that won’t happen. VA and FL are already gone. Wis is turning as we speak. Penn will be competitive and we might get it.

Its over. Let’s go get Minnesota just for fun. Just to rub it in.

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 7:28 PM

“Really? Please produce the links of ALL the pollsters saying that Obama will win Ohio.”

Rasmussen, Survey USA, Purple Poll, ARG, CNN, Fox News all show Obama ahead. I don’t know of a single pollster in the last week who has Romney ahead.

This is beyond insanity to think ROmney isn’t losing.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:29 PM

From Del’s link that you no doubt read.

Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:17 PM

I challenge anyone who lives here on Planet Earth to prove that the above statement by Adrian Gray is “partisan hackery”. All he is doing is citing hard numbers, and those hard numbers do not bode well for the incumbent.

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 7:29 PM

How many rings? So many I lose count.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 7:30 PM

And if it turned out to be true, then ALL the pollsters should be on trial for fraud since ALL the pollsters now say Obama will win Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:20 PM

The last Rasmussen poll in Ohio is tied. When did Scott Rasmussen say that Obama WILL WIN OHIO?

And, there is no case for fraud. Polling is more of an art than a science. If you are betting money based on the polls, you deserve to lose…like Thomas Dewey.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:30 PM

New Nate silver #’s out. Obama at 550%! Elections over guys

cjv209 on October 26, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Oh and the bad news I was referencing was Ohio. Obama isn’t going to win there either.

Go vote – and then abuse a liberal just for fun. Just like they want to abuse you.

Being a liberal means you can be a jerk and no one will blame you for it. And being a democrat means believing in nothing but power and graft.

And if this Benghazi garbage turns out to be as bad as it seems to be moving I hope these yahoos all get the proper reward that is coming to them. Disgrace and a fall from power.

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Final Score: Resist We Much 72, gumbyandpokey 0. Thanks for playing…

Decoski on October 26, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Really? Please produce the links of ALL the pollsters saying that Obama will win Ohio.

And, you did praise him.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I’ve never seen a poll done nearly 2 weeks before an election that has predicted the result that would happen 12 days later.

No, today’s numbers reflect what the numbers are today, 12 days before the election.

And the 3 latest numbers all show the Ohio race is a statistical tie.

CNN must really be proud of that 8.5% margin of error in their Ohio Joke Poll today.

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Rasmussen, Survey USA, Purple Poll, ARG, CNN, Fox News all show Obama ahead. I don’t know of a single pollster in the last week who has Romney ahead.

This is beyond insanity to think ROmney isn’t losing.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:29 PM

1. So, I ask you to produce links to back up your claim that “ALL the pollsters now say Obama will win Ohio” and you reply that all polls show Obama ahead. None of the pollsters have said that Obama WILL win Ohio, but most of their current polls have Obama with a lead.

IOW, you lied.

2. Rasmussen’s last poll does not show Obama ahead in Ohio. It shows him tied with Romney.

IOW, you lied…once again.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:34 PM

This is beyond insanity to think ROmney isn’t losing.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I’m puzzled why you think polls are ‘the truth’ as opposed to a best estimate. Even pollsters will tell you there are some assumptions they base their polls on, with turnout being a major factor.

There is no way Dems will match Republican turnout.

Mitsouko on October 26, 2012 at 7:34 PM

What are the trolls going to do for money after the election?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:24 PM

These people don’t have much to do in their lives. GumbyandPokey, an admitted Obama voter who has admitted that he’s a loner in real life and enjoys tweaking conservatives on sites like this and Ace of Spades, Freerepublic, etc. Just Google his name and you’ll see his long history.

People like this aren’t getting paid to post. They do this on their own. After Obama loses I’m sure we’ll still see GumbyandPokey, if he isn’t banned first (as he was at Ace of Spades) for dishonest, disruptive, off-topic spam. This is what GumbyandPokey does in his free time. During 2014 election he’ll be back doing the same thing, trying to demoralize Republicans.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I challenge anyone who lives here on Planet Earth to prove that the above statement by Adrian Gray is “partisan hackery”. All he is doing is citing hard numbers, and those hard numbers do not bode well for the incumbent.

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Funny how Gumby ignored both of us!

12.More.Days.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:35 PM

RuPoll:

Hint:

Polls: Inanimate objects

Pollsters: Human beings

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Time to grill.

Be happy everyone. We have every reason to be positive and enthused – all the numbers point our way. The gender gap, the crossovers, the independent splits, voter enthusiam – everything is in our favor. And it isn’t even Nov. 1st.

Obama is doing his part to help: “Bullshiiteer”, “First Time”, “Dunce” – Benghazi doesn’t reach low info voters, but these sure do.

The other side has only “Hope”.

Smile. Relax.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I’m puzzled why you think polls are ‘the truth’ as opposed to a best estimate. Even pollsters will tell you there are some assumptions they base their polls on, with turnout being a major factor.

There is no way Dems will match Republican turnout.

Mitsouko on October 26, 2012 at 7:34 PM

You are addressing GumbyandPokey under the assumption that he is being honest in his comments.

GumbyandPokey is simply an Obama voter who is trying to spin the news in Obama’s favor. He doesn’t actually believe what he is saying. It’s just partisan spin.

You haven’t figured that out by now?

There is no honest discussion to be had with people like that.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:39 PM

IOW, you lied…once again.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:34 PM

That’s all he does. He also doesn’t own up to all the times he was WRONG.

ShadowsPawn on October 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

“There is no honest discussion to be had with people like that.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:39 PM”

We’ll see who was being honest on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

RuPoll:

Hint:

Polls: Inanimate objects

Pollsters: Human beings

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I suggest you look up the definition of a psychopath before you continue your attempts to reason with this one. It thinks it is smarter than you and will lie and cheat without conscience or compunction in order to “win”. The attention you pay to it only reinforces its own sense of self-importance and superiority.

Added bonus: when it is proven to be wrong, it will be convinced that is only because you cheated.

You make lots of good points, and should continue to do so. However, you might want to consider doing so without reference to you-know-who.

HTL on October 26, 2012 at 7:46 PM

“There is no honest discussion to be had with people like that.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:39 PM”

We’ll see who was being honest on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

You are incapable of a single truthful thought or sentence you are a giant walking lie. So you can go fluke yourself , the sooner, the better. No need to wait till the election night.

jimver on October 26, 2012 at 7:47 PM

The whole gumbypokey thing is a fascinating look at professional agitating. Corproations employ people to do stuff like this all the time, it’s a form of corporate espionage where professional agitators are hired to troll message boards of competing companies and fake concern, outrage or just outright promote lies about the competitors product. Often times with multiple accounts, creating the image of a tiny grassroots movement against a company or product. You see this all the time with amazon review pages, etc. gumbypokey is essentially doing the same thing for the Obama campaign, or some sort corproate interest with ties to it. If you notice, his posts are nothing but reaffirming the msm/ obama election narrative “obama wins cause ohio!”. This isn’t the only blog he trolls…

1984 in real life on October 26, 2012 at 7:48 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Remember the sinking feeling you felt when Walker won decisively after you declared on here that he was a “goner”?

Remember when there was no Big Bird bounce, no VP debate bounce, no 2nd or 3rd debate bounces, even though each time you predicted there would be one?

Remember when you gleefully declared that the jobs report would result in Obama pulling away in the polls? I believe you said it would be an “atomic bomb” that would detonate the Romney campaign in a matter of days.

Each and every time you have been wrong. Your wishful thinking was just that.

The sinking feeling you had each time you watched your Democrat candidates flounder will be how you will feel in 13 days. You should be used to the feeling by now. The worst part for you is that you’ll know that you wasted so much of your time posting comments on all these sites only to end up having to listen to Obama’s concession speech.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:50 PM

We’ll see who was being honest on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Well, it’s certainly not you nor King Obama.

Why don’t you come and join the conversation in this new thread AP posted?

Video: Obama ducks questions on why help wasn’t sent to Benghazi

We would like your opinion and watch you defend this. O.K.?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:51 PM

1984 in real life on October 26, 2012 at 7:48 PM

This could well be true but I can’t help feeling like he’s that guy all the neighbors say is just quiet and harmless and then turns out to be a psycho serial killer.

BeachBum on October 26, 2012 at 7:51 PM

“Why don’t you come and join the conversation in this new thread AP posted?

Video: Obama ducks questions on why help wasn’t sent to Benghazi

We would like your opinion and watch you defend this. O.K.?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 7:51 PM”

The American public doesn’t care about it, which is all that matters in an election season. It’s not moving the needle at all.

And I’m not going to defend someone or something I don’t agree with.

Obama very well may be the Devil, but the Devil is winning.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM

BeachBum on October 26, 2012 at 7:51 PM

No doubt it takes a certain kind of sociopath to make money doing what he’s doing.

1984 in real life on October 26, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Obama very well may be the Devil, but the Devil is winning.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM

He’s probably ahead but I wouldn’t be too comfortable if I was him. Kerry was ahead in Ohio at this time eight years ago, too.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 7:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Funny, yet again you ignore ALL those posts right up above asking you to address all the times you’ve been so wrong, when you thought you were SO right.

Shove your predictions, even IF you turned out to be right on election night, not a single person here will offer you an ounce of respect.

ShadowsPawn on October 26, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Obama very well may be the Devil, but the Devil is winning.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM
He’s probably ahead but I wouldn’t be too comfortable if I was him. Kerry was ahead in Ohio at this time eight years ago, too.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 7:58 PM

That’s his biggest problem (other than not owning up to his past mistakes), he can’t look at the big picture, all he sees are polls and believes that they are gospel. Well, the ones that fit his narrative at least.

ShadowsPawn on October 26, 2012 at 8:03 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Chicken Sh!t. That is what you are.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 8:03 PM

“He’s probably ahead but I wouldn’t be too comfortable if I was him. Kerry was ahead in Ohio at this time eight years ago, too.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 7:58 PM”

Well, if Romney is going to go ahead, he has to do it in the next few days, since that’s what Bush did…

RCP Average | 10/25-11/1
-
-
48.8
46.7
Off Ballot
Bush +2.1
Zogby | 10/29-11/1
601 LV
4.1
49
43
-
Bush +6
FOX News | 10/30-31
700 LV
3.0
50
47
-
Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31
816 LV
3.5
49
47
-
Bush +2
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31
801 LV
3.0
48
46
-
Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31
1111 LV
4.0
46
50
-
Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31
877LV
3.3
50.1
49.2
-
Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29
625 LV
4.0
48
46
-
Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31
600 LV
4.0
50
46
-
Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28
1500 LV
2.6
48
45
-
Bush +3
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27
801 LV
3.0
48
47
-
Bush +1
Colmbus Dispatch* | 10/20-29
2880 LV
2.0
50
50
-
TIE
Survey USA| 10/23-10/25
831 LV
3.5
47
50
-
Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25
600 LV
4.0
47
49
-
Kerry +2
LA Times | 10/22-10/26
585 LV
4.0
44
50
-
Kerry +6

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:04 PM

“gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Chicken Sh!t. That is what you are.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 8:03 PM”

Nope, just realistic.

Average people don’t care about Benghazi.

All your outrage won’t make it an issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

How about the Live Free or Die state of New Hampshire??

You don’t need to have car insurance, don’t have to wear a helment on a motorcycle, no state income tax, no sales tax, and it’s the first state I’ve ever lived in that has a really good shot at going red in November and this actually part of New England which like The Great One says is almost like one big East Germany at times!

LevinFan on October 26, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Average people don’t care about Benghazi.

All your outrage won’t make it an issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

People are paying attention and you will see it on Election night when the boy king goes down in flames because of it.

King Obama is a coward and a liar, just like you, douchbag.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Average people LSM don’t care about Benghazi.

All your outrage won’t makeThey don’t want to make it an issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

bgibbs1000 on October 26, 2012 at 8:21 PM

“Average people don’t care about Benghazi.

All your outrage won’t make it an issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

People are paying attention and you will see it on Election night when the boy king goes down in flames because of it.

King Obama is a coward and a liar, just like you, douchbag.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 8:16 PM”

If people were paying any attention to Benghazi or cared about it in the least, Obama would be down an average of 3-5 pts nationally, and would certainly be losing Ohio.

But keep the outrage alive, pal. I hope you can deal with election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:22 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Exactly. RCP is calculating the current state of the race in Ohio using polls from 10/17 to 10/25. Use polls from the same time frame in Ohio and Kerry was ahead but Bush closed in the last two weeks and carried the state by two points. I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that the 2004 election was on November 2nd and this years is on November 6th so Bush overtook Kerry in a shorter timeframe than Mitt has left to close on Obama. That said I think the odds are still in Obama’s favor but this thing is far from over. Disagree with me at your own peril.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM

But keep the outrage alive, pal. I hope you can deal with election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:22 PM

You might want to go and take a look at all of the comments posted on this news story by Jake Tapper. You know, all those American’s who just don’t care.

President Obama Begs Off Answering Whether Americans in Benghazi Were Denied Requests for Help

Go and read it, you creep. And I can deal with anything, I grew up in a Communist country. You’d be squealing after a week if you had to live like I did.

Oh yeah genius, could you please learn how to block quotes and format properly?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 8:31 PM

“Average people don’t care about Benghazi.

All your outrage won’t make it an issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Waterboarding three known terrorists, who were responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans, was outrageous and treasonable, according to the MSM, the Left and many “average people,” but a President refusing to aid Americans under assault and leaving them behind on the battlefield is no biggie???

Seriously???

Spoken like a true Obama Firster.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Mitt Romney is finished. He told a whopping big lie about Jeep jobs going to China, and Chrysler called him out on it. Romney tells lies with breath-taking alacrity and he’s still going to lose.

President Obama will win Ohio and he’ll win Wisconsin and probably Nevada.

Four more years? Sounds good to me!

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 8:38 PM

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 8:38 PM

The ramblings of a deeply disturbed person.

ShadowsPawn on October 26, 2012 at 8:41 PM

“Waterboarding three known terrorists, who were responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans, was outrageous and treasonable, according to the MSM, the Left and many “average people,” but a President refusing to aid Americans under assault and leaving them behind on the battlefield is no biggie???

Seriously???

Spoken like a true Obama Firster.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 8:36 PM”

Never said it wasn’t a very important issue. I said the American public doesn’t care about it. Right and wrong have very little to do with who wins and loses in politics. Obama’s cynical hyper-attacking campaign is winning the day. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an incumbent President who can win re-election by doing nothing but attacking his opponent and talking about abortion, birth control, binders, and big bird, but Obama is doing just that.

I think it speaks more to just how inept and rotten a candidate Romney is.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I think it speaks more to just how inept and rotten a candidate Romney is stupid half the American electorate is.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:42 PM

FIFY

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Never said it wasn’t a very important issue. I said the American public doesn’t care about it. Right and wrong have very little to do with who wins and loses in politics. Obama’s cynical hyper-attacking campaign is winning the day. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an incumbent President who can win re-election by doing nothing but attacking his opponent and talking about abortion, birth control, binders, and big bird, but Obama is doing just that.

I think it speaks more to just how inept and rotten a candidate Romney is.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Yes, we trust the deep personal insight of someone that has been so wrong, so often. Because you get the pulse of the nation from your basement.

ShadowsPawn on October 26, 2012 at 8:47 PM

What is the overall average of all other pollsters in total vote? You know, who’s actually winning and losing in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Why would that matter if they are using bogus assumptions?

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 8:49 PM

That’s what is going on this very day by people like numbersmuncher and DB Hawkins on twitter, tying themselves in a million knots to explain why the bad polls are really good polls.

I honestly feel bad for anyone who buys into the spin, when the obvious facts are there in every single poll now showing Romney losing. You should not play with people’s emotions and then have them crestfallen on election night when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 7:03 PM

You quote numbersmuncher constantly.

Now you don’t like them?

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 8:50 PM

You quote numbersmuncher constantly.

Now you don’t like them?

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 8:50 PM

When numbersmuncher talks about how pollsters are taking shots in the dark about how to weight people who’ve already voted and how that could be skewing things in Obama’s favor, painting a rosier picture for him than what the reality on Election Day is going to be then that doesn’t fit the narrative so it’s much more comfortable to just ignore it and move on.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 8:57 PM

You haven’t figured that out by now?

There is no honest discussion to be had with people like that.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Of course I have figured it out. I’m not a fool.

Mitsouko on October 26, 2012 at 9:00 PM

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Obama told a whopper on Benghazi…in fact, he told many.

Obama told a whopper about sequestration.

Obama told a whopper about Planned Parenthood and mammograms.

Obama told a whopper about leaving troops in Iraq, which he wanted to do.

Obama told a whopper about bayonets.

Obama told a whopper about “ships that go underwater.”

Obama told a whopper about Romney’s position on managed bankruptcies for GM & Chrysler, as well as financing guarantees.

Obama told a whopper about Selma.

Obama told a whopper about his mum’s health insurance company trying to deny her claims.

Obama told a whopper about cutting the deficit in half.

Obama told a whopper about FY 2009 spending being the result of “Bush’s FY 2009 budget” – there was no Bush FY 2009 budget.

Shall I continue?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:00 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Among current Ohio RCP polls: Obama up 2.3, but Romney up 10.4 with independents and Dem turnout better than 08 by 1.5.

Simple match, gumby. I want you to know why I firmly believe Romney will win Ohio based on all the polling information.

Romney is 10.4 with independents (and this includes both nonsense CNN polls where Obama is up. Take those out and Romney is up by 11.4 with independents)

Obama won Ohio indies by 8

2008 Ohio partisan split was 37.5% Democrats, 32.5% Republicans, and 30% Independents

If Romney just flips Obama’s +8 with indies, he takes 8 x .3 = 2.4 from Obama’s side and adds 2.4 to his side.

That’s a 4.8 point shift

Obama beat McCain by 4.6.

But the indy average is Romney +10.4

So subtract 2.4 from Obama and add 3.1 to Romney.

Romney is up .9

And that’s all assuming Obama gets his huge turnout and Romney gets McCain’s lousy turnout.

None of this is borne out by the polls.

Romney wins Ohio by the numbers we have as of today.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Something to keep in mind when considering current polling. Every single pollster right now is still oversampling democrat turnout by 7 or more points if you believe Gallups new R +3 electorate estimates.

This means that races which appear tied are actually comfortable Romney wins. We are looking at a wave election that will rival though not beat 1980 – there are some states that Republicans will just never win. Just watch the polls now until Tuesday. By Tuesday Gallup and Rasmussen will have Romney ahead 6 to 8 points nationally.

mitchellvii on October 26, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Never said it wasn’t a very important issue. I said the American public doesn’t care about it.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Those that have been following it DO care. Unfortunately, the MSM doesn’t seem to believe that it is a story. Instead, Murdock’s consistency on life beginning at conception, a position that his Democratic opponent happens to share, is supposedly he more important. Murdock never condoned rape. All that he said was that, if one believes that life is sacred and begins at conception, then it matters not how it was conceived. One doesn’t have to agree with Murdock or Donnelly on the issue of abortion or even when life begins, but the former is being consistent and what he said was not outrageous and certainly not Akin-esque. Yet, that’s what the MSM is focused on while we learn more and more about the absolute outrageous behaviour of the President.

So, are you going to vote for Obama?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:00 PM

But President Obama didn’t tell auto workers in Ohio they were going to lose their jobs because production was moving to China.

Ohio voters now have fresh proof that Romney is a bald-faced liar. That’s not going to help him win the state.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Funny I should just type that but this tweet came in right after:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

As I’ve said all along- if O can beat 08 turnout he will win, but he won’t. If turnout is halfway between 04 and 08 (even), Romney wins big.

Obama has to turn out like 2008 just to tie, as his indy advantage is gone and is even larger on Romney’s side.

Nationally he is up around 20, WaPo included.

Unless Obama repeats 2008 turnout, he will lose huge.

No spin, just math.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 9:10 PM

But President Obama didn’t tell auto workers in Ohio they were going to lose their jobs because production was moving to China.

Ohio voters now have fresh proof that Romney is a bald-faced liar. That’s not going to help him win the state.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:09 PM

None of this is true, and you know that well.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Folks, Romney is going to win Ohio for the following reasons. All what it takes is for only 3% of Obama 2008 voters in Ohio to stay home in 2012 combined with only 7% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 to switch to Romney in 2012 and Obama is certain to lose Ohio… I am absolutley convinced that at least 3% of Obama 2008 voters in Ohio are staying home in 2012 and that at least 7% of Obama 2008 “White Voters” in Ohio are going to switch to Romney in 2012…

mnjg on October 26, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Of course I have figured it out. I’m not a fool.
Mitsouko on October 26, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Ok, sorry. I apologize.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 9:17 PM

None of this is true, and you know that well.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Even the extreme leftie David Letterboy admitted that little Bammie lied about Governor Romney’s plan for GM and Chrysler.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 9:18 PM

None of this is true, and you know that well.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 9:10 PM

No Mr. Romney, Jeep Is Not Moving All Its Factories to China

I’m sure you won’t read the story. That’s ok. I’ll bet a lot of Ohio voters will.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 5:27 PM

To confirm your take on Colorado:

I have been doing politics actively for literally half a century here in Colorado.

There are things that are carved in stone, and if Democrats believed in a Deity; they would be part of their state 10 Commandments.

There are 3 counties in Colorado that verily will be Democrat, unto the ends of the world, until the Communists take over completely, or til the world runs out of money to support the 47%.

I. First amongst these is the People’s Republic of Boulder; where the true Marxist-Leninist faith prevails. There they mourn the fall of the Soviet Union, and have literally declared themselves a no nuclear weapons zone. They chose Dushambe [formerly Stalinibad], Tajikistan, USSR as their sister city specifically knowing that it was the home of the Soviet SDI research.

II. Second amongst these is the Democrat City and County of Denver, where ethnicity rules. Democrat-ruled for a century by different ethnic machines; first and longest Irish, then shortly Hispanic, and now Black. Verily, nought will be accomplished, except upon payments to the official and unofficial enablers of stuff. The counting of ballots there is an exercise in creative arithmetic.

III. Third amongst these is the County of El Pueblo. Hispanic in population, but ruled for the last century by Labor Union Democrats; first Irish, then Italian and “Bohunk” [Bohemian and Slovak]; power was centered around Colorado Fuel and Iron and its successor and supplying companies [CF&I was driven out of business by the unions, bought after being closed over 10 years, by Rocky Mountain Steel. The unions struck RMS at the first contract renewal before the plant had made its first profit after being modernized and reopened. They were locked out and the union was thrown out. Later it was bought by a Russian company now running it. Union strength has plummeted; however the local Democrats were taken over by the La Raza Unida Hispanic separatists. Many of their elected officials were the ones planting bombs for LRU in Denver in the 1970's.

These are the building blocks for any Democrat campaign here.

We knew that Obama was not popular there, both because of a 28% unemployment rate [hell, in my county we are at 20%], but also because Hispanics here are not too fond of Blacks. We knew that at the State Fair in Pueblo, the Democrat booth was mostly empty and the Republican booth was constantly packed [and we were fair amazed].

The local newspaper is the Pueblo Chieftain. They are hard core pro-Union, anti-employer, pro-Socialist, and worshiped at the altar of Obama.

Sunday, they released their formal endorsements. I ran into someone who saw them, who passed them on to me. I did not believe it and checked them online when I got home.

THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN HAS ENDORSED EVERY REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE RUNNING ON THE BALLOT THERE EXCEPT FOR ONE [OUT OF 6] STATE HOUSE RACES. The whole ballot, from Romney on down.

The Chieftain is saying that Pueblo county is a “toss-up”.

Democrats cannot win in Colorado unless they get good turnout from ALL their strongholds, plus take part of the middle.

I have never seen anything like this before in Pueblo. Count our 10 electoral votes for Romney, and we may get the legislature back and roll back some taxes.

Subotai Bahadur

Subotai Bahadur on October 26, 2012 at 9:20 PM

“So, are you going to vote for Obama?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:08 PM”

No, and I didn’t vote for him in 08, either.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I’m sure you won’t read the story. That’s ok. I’ll bet a lot of Ohio voters will.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:18 PM

How long has your boy king been lying about what happened in Benghazi?

How about that whopper he told in the last debate about sequestration?

And that other big lie about Planned Parenthood offering mammograms?

How about that big faux pas on bayonets?

I’ll wait.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 9:23 PM

But President Obama didn’t tell auto workers in Ohio they were going to lose their jobs because production was moving to China.

Ohio voters now have fresh proof that Romney is a bald-faced liar. That’s not going to help him win the state.

chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:09 PM

President Obama told many, many more Americans, who work for defence contractors, that they weren’t going to lose their jobs. Remember, when he said that sequestration wasn’t going to happen during the debate? The very next day, in an interview with the Des Moines Register, he told the editorial board that sequestration would be in place, i.e., defence cuts would take effect.

There are a lot of defence-related jobs in Ohio.

Obama is a bald-faced liar.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:24 PM

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