Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

posted at 4:41 pm on October 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is the first time Romney’s been at least even with O in any Wisconsin poll since August, when he led by a point. The state’s not technically a must-win, but it’s mighty close: If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line. And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat. If he doesn’t, then Wisconsin is a must.

Ten days to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided…

A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

He leads by six on the economy, another good sign. The bad news this afternoon? CNN’s new poll of Ohio has O up 50/46. And there aren’t a lot of undecideds left:

CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends. E.g.:

Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too: The campaign is telling wealthy donors that they’ve been holding off on a blast of ad spending in key states until the final week of the campaign to maximize effect. All of that is reason for hope. The wrinkle is that, of the last 11 polls taken in Ohio, Romney has led in exactly none of them. He’s tied in three and trails O in the other eight. Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days. If, hypothetically, he doesn’t win either Ohio or Wisconsin, then we’re in longshot territory even if he ekes it out in Colorado. He’d need to win either Iowa + Nevada + New Hampshire, or he’d have to pull a major upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s a tall order if the vote is tipping against him narrowly in more hotly contested states like OH or WI. Luckily, it’s not tipping against him in Wisconsin right now. Virginia + Colorado + Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa wins him the presidency, with or without Ohio.

Via Breitbart, here’s Scarborough wondering how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win. As Geraghty says, it seems increasingly likely that Romney’s going to win the popular vote, which almost always means winning the presidency. If he doesn’t, it’d be thanks to a herculean feat by Obama’s organization to drag apathetic liberals out to the polls.

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