Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

posted at 4:41 pm on October 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is the first time Romney’s been at least even with O in any Wisconsin poll since August, when he led by a point. The state’s not technically a must-win, but it’s mighty close: If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line. And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat. If he doesn’t, then Wisconsin is a must.

Ten days to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided…

A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

He leads by six on the economy, another good sign. The bad news this afternoon? CNN’s new poll of Ohio has O up 50/46. And there aren’t a lot of undecideds left:

CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends. E.g.:

Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too: The campaign is telling wealthy donors that they’ve been holding off on a blast of ad spending in key states until the final week of the campaign to maximize effect. All of that is reason for hope. The wrinkle is that, of the last 11 polls taken in Ohio, Romney has led in exactly none of them. He’s tied in three and trails O in the other eight. Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days. If, hypothetically, he doesn’t win either Ohio or Wisconsin, then we’re in longshot territory even if he ekes it out in Colorado. He’d need to win either Iowa + Nevada + New Hampshire, or he’d have to pull a major upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s a tall order if the vote is tipping against him narrowly in more hotly contested states like OH or WI. Luckily, it’s not tipping against him in Wisconsin right now. Virginia + Colorado + Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa wins him the presidency, with or without Ohio.

Via Breitbart, here’s Scarborough wondering how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win. As Geraghty says, it seems increasingly likely that Romney’s going to win the popular vote, which almost always means winning the presidency. If he doesn’t, it’d be thanks to a herculean feat by Obama’s organization to drag apathetic liberals out to the polls.

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gummeandpokeme has run out of sperm!

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Winning.

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Running out of time, Dog Man.

spiritof61 on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

…does Sesame Street poll?

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Ohio will be a red state.

El_Terrible on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

“Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too…”

I hope “Who ordered the “Stand Down” in Benghazi?” makes the list…

Seven Percent Solution on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Ambassador Stevens does not consider the phrase, “Dead Heat” to be an optimal phrase…

SWalker on October 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Will Wisconsin do something worthwhile for the first time in its history?

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I have a feeling that I’m going to go to bed with a smile on my face on November 6th.

Unlike the worried look I must have had on my face on election night 2008.

UltimateBob on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

…gummeandpokeme has run out of sperm!

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Yes… but she knows where to get lots more… o_O

SWalker on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

the left will not allow any poll that shows Romney winning Ohio, its all they have left.

rob verdi on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

But but Intrade!

Ah, Wisconsin is a bunch of poopyhead racists anyway!

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win

or Romney lead so massively with independents and lose

runner on October 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Would be funny if Romney lent his campaign a stupid amount of money, say 50-100m, and did a 50 state positive ad blitz. I have a feeling that the blue states have ice-thin support for Obama – it might take just a nominal effort to collapse that support. Imagine the panic it would cause on the Obama side. We need a Reagan style landslide.

ebrawer on October 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

THat CNN poll is bad.

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

I meant the CNN poll is bad news, the split isn’t too bad. could independents in OH, just not like Romney, but indies in other states do?

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Do you have the D/R/I of Rasmussen’s sample in Wisconsin?

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

OH polls are bunk. None are using a correct turnout model.

None of the polls are assuming the Rasmussen R+2 national advantage or the Gallup R+1 nationally. OH is usually always more Republican than national #’s. Taking into account that Romney is up w/ indies in 14/17 of the polls in OH and you have a victory.

jaygatz33 on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

That’s the only poll showing O winning indys in Ohio. Other have him losing them by big margins.

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

CNN’s final Ohio poll in 2004 had Kerry winning 50%-46%. CNN polls always seem to find 3%-4% extra Democrats out of thin air.

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

This is what’s driving Mittens media buy in the Twin Cities. Western Cheeseheadlanders get their media from the Mpls/St. Paul stations.

No way is the Peoples Republic of Minnesnowta in play.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days.

No! Not the pollsters! The truthseekers? How can it be so?

With the independant spreads escaping the “truth monitors” at the offices of our pollsters, is it any wonder I do not doubt the outcome of the Ohio vote?

Color me surprised if Romney (gasps) takes Ohio….

/MAJOR Sarc

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

If he isn’t dead yet, then the speak no ill of the dead rule isn’t in effect yet… And By God I hope he dies in a fiery car crash…

SWalker on October 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Amen !

burrata on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

I hope he’s okay.

I don’t want anything screwing with the narrative into the election and I definitely don’t want Chuck Schumer becoming Senate Majority Leader.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I meant the CNN poll is bad news, the split isn’t too bad. could independents in OH, just not like Romney, but indies in other states do?

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

It’s an outlier. As the tweet above indicates Obama only leads independents in 3 Ohio polls, two of them were CNN polls. Take those away and the closest result was PPP(D) poll that had Romney winning indy’s by 5%.

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Will Wisconsin do something worthwhile for the first time in its history?

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 4:46 PM

As opposed to your miserable state? Oh, that’s right, you gave us Al Freaking Franken. Now that’s something to be proud of, eh?

chewmeister on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

In WI our ground game is second to none thanks to the (failed) attempts to oust Governor Walker. We’ve had more than enough practice & we’ve already hit the ground running. Romney/Ryan will win this state.

fatigue on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Romney hasn’t led in Ohio since forever. It is highly unlikely he will win that state. He’s more likely to win Wisconsin than Ohio.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

The D+3 sample is ok I suppose(I think it’ll be closer to the 2010 turnout), but any poll that says Obama is leading with indies by 5 is a joke. O-I-H-O ain’t California or New York. He’s not going to win independent voters there.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Oh and early voting errors are messing w/ a lot of these polls in OH as well. Check this out compared to 2008 when D’s won OH w/ D+5 (Allah was wrong about that again up above).

@adrian_gray
OHIO in one tweet: 220k fewer Dems have voted vs 2008, 30k more GOP. That’s net 250k. Obama won by 260k in ’08. Now 11 days left.

jaygatz33 on October 26, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Still within the MoF.

Mr. D on October 26, 2012 at 4:55 PM

If Romney gets 50% of the popular vote, I can’t see how he loses the electoral college.

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

CNN’s final Ohio poll in 2004 had Kerry winning 50%-46%. CNN polls always seem to find 3%-4% extra Democrats out of thin air.

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Funny – comments on their site are suggesting that they have a long history of always getting the polls correct for the outcome…

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends.

There is your first clue that this is a junk poll.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Ask Al Gore.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

In WI our ground game is second to none thanks to the (failed) attempts to oust Governor Walker. We’ve had more than enough practice & we’ve already hit the ground running. Romney/Ryan will win this state.

fatigue on October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

~Hangin’ out, down the street~
~It’s the same ol’ thing, we did last week~
~No-thing to do, but TALK to you~
~It’s all alright! It’s all alright!~

Hello Wisconsin!

Dang… I’m loving that state… can I move there?

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

THat CNN poll is bad.

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

It’s not great, BUT:

@adrian_gray

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

356/182 Romney EV, 55/44 popular.
55/45 R Senate
HOR picks up 17 more Rs, maybe even my idiot congress woman, yeah!!

jukin3 on October 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Why spread doom and gloom?

Romney is going to win. I can’t see any way he wins the popular vote by at least 3 points and lose the EC. It won’t be close.

cat_owner on October 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Romney hasn’t led in Ohio since forever. It is highly unlikely he will win that state. He’s more likely to win Wisconsin than Ohio.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Tune in on the night of Nov. 6th and find out how wrong you are.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Another great tweet:

@NumbersMuncher
Of the 14 most recent non-CNN polls in Ohio, Romney leads indys by 11.4. In the two CNN polls Obama leads indys by 4.5, a 15.9pt difference.

QED

CNN sucks.

strictnein on October 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

that cnn poll seems odd…

but i’m sure wolfie will be touting it every half hour…

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

There is your first clue that this is a junk poll.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I saw this a few minutes ago:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Of the 14 most recent non-CNN polls in Ohio, Romney leads indys by 11.4. In the two CNN polls Obama leads indys by 4.5, a 15.9pt difference.

INC on October 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

OT: via Drudge:

Dirty Harry Reid rushed to hospital after car accident on Freeway

portlandon on October 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

There is your first clue that this is a junk poll.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Second is that they have mixed Adult, Registered and Likely together.

How exactly do you measure a preference for someone not registered, or someone not planning to vote??

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

OT

Breaking News: Harry Reid involved in multi-car accident. Injured but not life threatening.

AubieJon on October 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Ask Al Gore.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I think Al Gore got around 48%. I think the only time anyone got over 50% of the popular vote and lost was in 1876, which Democrats conceded the election as a compromise to end reconstruction.

midgeorgian on October 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

I’m getting 50.2 Romney. I know, math is hard….

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Serious question to all.

How exactly do they know how people voted in the early voting. Just because someone is either a registered Democrat or Republican, how do they know the nature of their votes?

Can’t a registered Dem vote for Mitt and vice versa?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

INC on October 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Yep. Which leads to the following excellent conclusion:

CNN sucks.

strictnein on October 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Romney draws 12,000 in Defiance, Ohio Population 16,484

Barry draws 12,000 in Cleveland.

Romney will be the next President.

cat_owner on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Romney won’t win ohio. He will win Wisconsin and NH. I believe!

mrscullen on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

There is your first clue that this is a junk poll.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Yup, AP just about every poll of OH has Romney leading indies and typically by large margins like he is nationally. Another clue it is a junk poll is if you do the math 37% of respondants said they already voted and Obama is winning them by 21 points. The first number is way off the mark and the second number is likely so as well given then partisan breakdown of early voting.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Serious question to all.

How exactly do they know how people voted in the early voting. Just because someone is either a registered Democrat or Republican, how do they know the nature of their votes?

Can’t a registered Dem vote for Mitt and vice versa?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Exactly.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

If you missed it in the other poll thread, this one is for Gumby.

DrStock on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

OT: Update on Harry Reid, Adam Nagourney of NYT saying he’s okay. Walked his way into the emergency room.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

If you missed it in the other poll thread, this one is for Gumby.

DrStock on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Hilarious!!!

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 5:05 PM

OT: Harry Reid hospitalized after crash in Las Vegas

joekenha on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Karma.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 26, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Then why is he misusing emergency medical care?

IlikedAUH2O on October 26, 2012 at 5:06 PM

It’s not great, BUT:

@adrian_gray

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Very close win for Romney. I’m not very good at math though.

Nick_Angel on October 26, 2012 at 5:07 PM

breaking news about reid on cnn

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 5:07 PM

gutmeandpokeme!

Lanceman on October 26, 2012 at 5:07 PM

None of the polls are assuming the Rasmussen R+2 national advantage or the Gallup R+1 nationally. OH is usually always more Republican than national #’s. Taking into account that Romney is up w/ indies in 14/17 of the polls in OH and you have a victory.

jaygatz33 on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Good point.

2008:

McCain in OH: 46.9%
McCain nationally: 45.7%

2004:

Bush in OH: 50.8%
Bush nationally: 50.7%

The final result OH is extremely likely to mirror the nationally figure, but with a strong tendency for the GOP to overperform.

Romney wins OH by 4-5 points.

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 5:07 PM

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

excellent question JP…we won’t know until election day….

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 5:08 PM

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Serious question to all.

How exactly do they know how people voted in the early voting. Just because someone is either a registered Democrat or Republican, how do they know the nature of their votes?

Can’t a registered Dem vote for Mitt and vice versa?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

In this case it’s based on the CNN poll that had 278 or so “early voters”. In the real world it is true a dem could vote Romney and and a republican vote Obama but the typically the republican will will win republicans by 90 points and the dem will win dems by 80-85 points, but for symmetry you can use 90 as well.

Absentee ballots form the bulk of early voting and many states keep track of if they go to republicans or dems and how many were returned. Using that you can get a rough idea of how early voting is going. I don’t think Ohio keeps track of party registration but uses country numbers instead. So doing it for Ohio requires a little more guesswork based on how the counties usually vote.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

:)

INC on October 26, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Very close win for Romney. I’m not very good at math though.

Nick_Angel on October 26, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Esp. when you consider the early voters skew dem. As Clint Eastwood put it, “Conservatives play it a little closer to the vest, and don’t go hot-dogging it.”

Ohio is a prime example.

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Serious question to all.

How exactly do they know how people voted in the early voting. Just because someone is either a registered Democrat or Republican, how do they know the nature of their votes?

Can’t a registered Dem vote for Mitt and vice versa?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Sure, but I believe both are capturing the same % of their base so it’s probably fair to assume that the votes Dems are banking are very much for Obama.

The important thing for Romney is to keep the early vote margin small enough so that he can overcome it on election day. Among those planning to vote then, even according to that CNN poll, Romney leads by 7.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Obama doesn’t care about the popular vote, he only cares about winning OH, even if by the skin of his teeth.

To me, as I’ve said for weeks, I can easily see Romney with popular vote but losing the election due to OH going to Obama. In fact I see this as likely.

Obama bought Ohio with the auto-bailout, and it made them immune to the economic disaster he brought to the rest of the country. That was the plan all along.

goflyers on October 26, 2012 at 5:13 PM

The <strong>Bradley effect is real.

FlaMurph on October 26, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Then why is he misusing emergency medical care?

IlikedAUH2O on October 26, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Because Obamacare doesn’t apply to him?

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 5:14 PM

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

If those figures remain through election day:

Rommney 47.86%
Obama 47.61%

BUT, this is way underestimating Romney’s final number because:

1. 5% undecided voters will vote, and a majority of them for Romney
2. Poll conducted by CNN way oversamples Dem Leaning independents

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 5:16 PM

If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line.

If it’s this close in Wisconsin, then Ohio ain’t falling through. Ohio is not a separate country. Obama won freakin’ INDIANA last time around. So now, in addition to getting killed in Indiana and losing NC handily, he’s gonna lose Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and has a good chance of losing Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada, and you’re telling me that the people of Ohio are gonna say “hey, I don’t know what all you people are complaining about, but here in Ohio everything is just great, no complaints”?

That’s just eeyore foolishness.

ardenenoch on October 26, 2012 at 5:16 PM

OT: Harry Reid hospitalized after crash in Las Vegas

joekenha on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

So, the word’s out that Harry Reid hasn’t paid any medical bills for 10 years. Let him prove that he has paid his medical bills because he hasn’t.

Stoic Patriot on October 26, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Like I said before, Romney doesn’t want to win. If he did, OH would be blanketed with ads about Benghazi, etc. He’d be going full warrior. Instead, milquetoast-ville.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

It’s not great, BUT:

@adrian_gray

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

According to the CNN poll 2.1 million have already voted leaving about 3.7 million to vote. So using their numbers Obama has a 200,000 vote lead with 250,000 undecided. This would result in an Obama win by 1-2%.

Using accurate early voting numbers along with their probably borked poll results you end up with Romney 15,000 votes ahead with 250,000 undecideds. This would result in a Romney win of 2-3%.

I know whose shoes I’d rather be in.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

So, the word’s out that Harry Reid hasn’t paid any medical bills for 10 years. Let him prove that he has paid his medical bills because he hasn’t.

Stoic Patriot on October 26, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I heard from multiple and reliable Democrat sources that he was driving drunk while simultaneously servicing his Guatemalan pool boy..prove it wrong Harry.

HumpBot Salvation on October 26, 2012 at 5:19 PM

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

1.4 million that may vote early. I don’t think there has actually been that many early votes yet has there? From what I can see there aren’t many more than a million requests. In addition the requests for early voting are up for R, down for D – so much so that there is a +250,000 vote difference for Republican early voting alone compared to 2008.

And yet they show this “mixed” sample as 59%-38% among those who voted early – going to Obama, and Obama +2 overall.

You can’t hide the truth. -250,000 Dem just in early voting from the getgo. Something is badly bogus. Either CNN who was wildly wrong in 2004 when predicting against Bush, is wrong again, or their London based polling outfit knows more about Ohio than all of the other polls do.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Absentee ballots form the bulk of early voting and many states keep track of if they go to republicans or dems and how many were returned. Using that you can get a rough idea of how early voting is going. I don’t think Ohio keeps track of party registration but uses country numbers instead. So doing it for Ohio requires a little more guesswork based on how the counties usually vote.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Thanks for an answer. I met many people last weekend when I was working GOTV in Nevada who said they were Democrats who were voting for Romney. But then again, they may have lied like people lie to pollsters.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:19 PM

OT: Harry Reid hospitalized after crash in Las Vegas

joekenha on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

How are the young boys he reportedly had stashed in the trunk?

lorien1973 on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Esp. when you consider the early voters skew dem. As Clint Eastwood put it, “Conservatives play it a little closer to the vest, and don’t go hot-dogging it.”

Ohio is a prime example.

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 5:10 PM

This is funny because as someone who was born and raised in Ohio I said that Ohioans like to play it close to the vest. Gumby laughs, but as an Ohioan for 26 of my 29 years I would think I know how the average Ohioan works.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

If Romney loses, the whole strategy of campaigning solely for Independents will be proven to be a disaster.

And Romney is losing every single OH poll coming out now. ARG and Purple Poll also have Obama winning in new polls out today.

I’m looking forward to collecting my 100.00

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

@adrian_gray

CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 4:58

Obama: (1.4 million x.59)+ (4.4 million x .44)=2,762,000
Romney: (1.4 million x.38)+ (4.4 million x .51)=2,776,000

DrStock on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Oh, and ABC/Wash Post tracking has romney’s lead down to 1pt from the 3 pts yesterday.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Like I said before, Romney doesn’t want to win. If he did, OH would be blanketed with ads about Benghazi, etc. He’d be going full warrior. Instead, milquetoast-ville.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

And like it was pointed out before, you don’t run for 6 years if you don’t want to win. Crikey. There’s eeyorism, then there’s just out and out bedwetting.

Using accurate early voting numbers along with their probably borked poll results you end up with Romney 15,000 votes ahead with 250,000 undecideds. This would result in a Romney win of 2-3%.

I know whose shoes I’d rather be in.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Yep. He’s just gotta keep that early vote margin down.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

According to the CNN poll 2.1 million have already voted leaving about 3.7 million to vote. So using their numbers Obama has a 200,000 vote lead with 250,000 undecided. This would result in an Obama win by 1-2%.

Using accurate early voting numbers along with their probably borked poll results you end up with Romney 15,000 votes ahead with 250,000 undecideds. This would result in a Romney win of 2-3%.

I know whose shoes I’d rather be in.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

2.1 million have already voted? Anybody got a non CNN link to let us know how many have voted?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Obama bought Ohio with the auto-bailout, and it made them immune to the economic disaster he brought to the rest of the country. That was the plan all along.

goflyers on October 26, 2012 at 5:13 PM

No he didn’t, and while the economy is doing pretty well here most polls I’ve looked at in the last month show Ohioans starting to give credit to where credit is due, John Kasich. His approval numbers which were fairly low a year ago have recovered and he regularly tops Obama, and blows him away in the approval spread. Also if the auto bailout was the end all be all to winning big auto big union states then Obama wouldn’t be down 10-15 points in MI right now.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Like I said before, Romney doesn’t want to win. If he did, OH would be blanketed with ads about Benghazi, etc. He’d be going full warrior. Instead, milquetoast-ville.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

What exactly are you prepared to do about it except to whine? Want some cheese?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Obama doesn’t care about the popular vote, he only cares about winning OH, even if by the skin of his teeth.

To me, as I’ve said for weeks, I can easily see Romney with popular vote but losing the election due to OH going to Obama. In fact I see this as likely.

Obama bought Ohio with the auto-bailout, and it made them immune to the economic disaster he brought to the rest of the country. That was the plan all along.

goflyers on October 26, 2012 at 5:13 PM

If the auto bailout was such a big factor, then why is Michigan even a possible player as a swing state? And why isn’t Indiana doing hand springs for Obama? The auto industry in Dayton, Ohio is 100% dead. GM and Delphi are all gone. He didn’t save it there.

What economic gains there have been in Ohio have come about since Kasich and the GOP legislature were elected in 2010. But the coal regions and the fracking regions have to know Obama is their enemy.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I look foward to laughing at everyone who placed any shred of credibility in the LSM rigged polls.

CNN oversampled dem’s by more than just +3 (think dem leaners, they also are using bogus party early vote numbers to inflate Obummer’s top line.

As usual feel free to keep this because I plan to sure as hell cut and paste this and several other posts on Nov 7th and LMAO

Skwor on October 26, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I’m getting 50.2 Romney. I know, math is hard….

Turtle317 on October 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I got a similar result. Conclusion: Too close to call.

22044 on October 26, 2012 at 5:24 PM

No way is the Peoples Republic of Minnesnowta in play.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

moose, wolves and walleyes get to vote there so you are probably right…guess they haven’t received the news on McGovern’s passing yet (the dog sled should be arriving soon with the paper they share…good thing they don’t have page 3 girls there…bad thing might be the demise of the Sears Roebuck catelog) and the WSJ article he wrote saying he was sorry for being a liberal.

don’t get me wrong…the “soda crackers” pay a lot of school taxes here and they took the majority of a certain ethnic group that decided Wisconsin was not a nice place to live for their kind. and M/SP mangaged to steal the “San Francisco of the north” title from Madison (although Madison is fighting hard to get it back).

teejk on October 26, 2012 at 5:24 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

True, but Gallup jumped back to 5 from 3 yesterday.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Like I said before, Romney doesn’t want to win. If he did, OH would be blanketed with ads about Benghazi, etc. He’d be going full warrior. Instead, milquetoast-ville.

andy85719 on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Sorry scooter..yammering about Benghazi isn’t what is going to turn the undecided voters out. Sad fact of the matter..majority of folks outside conservative blogs have no idea what is going on..and you can’t explain it in a 30 second spot.

HumpBot Salvation on October 26, 2012 at 5:25 PM

And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat.

LOL

Yeah if using a PPP (D) poll + a NBC Marist poll; both of which oversampled Dems by nearly a huge margin, predicting 2012 will be much better for Obama in CO than 2008.

Not. Going. To. Happen. Just look at the early voting for one, huge change from 2008 in GOP’s favor.

Romney wins CO by 6-8 points.

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Thanks for an answer. I met many people last weekend when I was working GOTV in Nevada who said they were Democrats who were voting for Romney. But then again, they may have lied like people lie to pollsters.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Yeah, of course it happens. For that and other reasons analyzing early voting isn’t all that useful. Another being IIRC the dems did almost as well in early voting in 2010 as they had in 2008. It’s all we have in the way of actual votes right now though, and it does show republicans, or republican counties, doing much better than in 2008. So for whatever that is worth.

According to the CNN poll 2.1 million have already voted leaving about 3.7 million to vote. So using their numbers Obama has a 200,000 vote lead with 250,000 undecided. This would result in an Obama win by 1-2%.

Using accurate early voting numbers along with their probably borked poll results you end up with Romney 15,000 votes ahead with 250,000 undecideds. This would result in a Romney win of 2-3%.

I know whose shoes I’d rather be in.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:18 PM

2.1 million have already voted? Anybody got a non CNN link to let us know how many have voted?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Should be 1.4 million, or at least that many absentee balllots were requested.

Just to note the 2.1 million figure comes from CNN’s MoE of their early voting results. It works out to 36% which basically matches the results of the rest of the poll.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 5:28 PM

OT: Harry Reid hospitalized after crash in Las Vegas

joekenha on October 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

One could hope…

And most hilarious of the links on that same page: HUNDREDS showed up to see Moochelle. Reid’s 4 car team would have beefed up that number substantially.

Even communist media can’t hide the facts anymore. They got caught with the lie that 13K showed up to see Hussein and Katy Perry, with no proof they usually provide like video or photos, and yet locals who know reported no more than 3K people (a way more realistic number by any measure). Same time that R/R had 6000 show up during WORK HOURS just a day earlier (with no singer to prop up the rally).

NV should go to R/R judging by the numbers for other Congress races that are safely for GOP for weeks now. Anywhere from 5-11% leads for Congress seats. How is R/R team supposed to miss out on that?

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 5:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:21 PM

You also that that Obama had momentum in Gallup and Ras, which didn’t happen.

You also said that Crist would be the next FL senator, and that the Dems were getting momentum in 2010. Didn’t happen.

Why are you wrong all the time? I don’t expect you to answer that, seeing as you are a coward.

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Gallup and Ras both that the electorate R+ 1-3. If that happens, all these polls are crap.

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Newt’s PAC just got $10M from Adelsons and reserved more than $17M worth of TV spots in battle ground states.

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 5:33 PM

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