Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49
posted at 4:41 pm on October 26, 2012 by Allahpundit
This is the first time Romney’s been at least even with O in any Wisconsin poll since August, when he led by a point. The state’s not technically a must-win, but it’s mighty close: If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line. And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat. If he doesn’t, then Wisconsin is a must.
Ten days to go:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided…
A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.
Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.
He leads by six on the economy, another good sign. The bad news this afternoon? CNN’s new poll of Ohio has O up 50/46. And there aren’t a lot of undecideds left:
CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends. E.g.:
Of the last 17 OH polls, O has led indys in only 3 of them. Two of those three are from CNN/ORC. The other is Rasmussen twitter.com/NumbersMuncher…
— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 26, 2012
Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too: The campaign is telling wealthy donors that they’ve been holding off on a blast of ad spending in key states until the final week of the campaign to maximize effect. All of that is reason for hope. The wrinkle is that, of the last 11 polls taken in Ohio, Romney has led in exactly none of them. He’s tied in three and trails O in the other eight. Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days. If, hypothetically, he doesn’t win either Ohio or Wisconsin, then we’re in longshot territory even if he ekes it out in Colorado. He’d need to win either Iowa + Nevada + New Hampshire, or he’d have to pull a major upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s a tall order if the vote is tipping against him narrowly in more hotly contested states like OH or WI. Luckily, it’s not tipping against him in Wisconsin right now. Virginia + Colorado + Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa wins him the presidency, with or without Ohio.
Via Breitbart, here’s Scarborough wondering how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win. As Geraghty says, it seems increasingly likely that Romney’s going to win the popular vote, which almost always means winning the presidency. If he doesn’t, it’d be thanks to a herculean feat by Obama’s organization to drag apathetic liberals out to the polls.
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So, who are you voting for this year?
Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:24 PM
Why are people arguing about an italian auto company?
tom daschle concerned on October 26, 2012 at 9:25 PM
Stop acting like you’re a barometer for ‘average people’. You’re not, and its annoying. Every time you pull that nonsense, you end up being wrong. Find another routine.
joejm65 on October 26, 2012 at 9:28 PM
Can’t deny the factual basis of the story, can you?
Romney’s lies will not win him Ohio. They will contribute to his defeat.
chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:28 PM
O/T: a new Ohio poll Romney 50%- Obama 47%
It is definitely an encouraging poll out of OH.
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:28 PM
I’m a Bohunk? Cool! Never heard that one before.
JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 9:30 PM
Deflect much? Answer my questions.
JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 9:31 PM
And Obama’s lies just result in the deaths of more and more Americans.
Care to share that authentic blood comrade? I’d like to smear a bit on my face too.
tom daschle concerned on October 26, 2012 at 9:31 PM
I saw a new poll showing Romney up 3 50%-47% which has encouraged me a bit. But I remain eeyorish about OH, mainly because it is the only state that has yet to show Romney with a lead. All the other swing states have swung towards us, but OH remains defiant and stubborn. I don’t want to be like I was in 2008, crushed, on Election night.
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:31 PM
Bob Woodward says that an Independent Counsel is needed for Benghazi.
Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:32 PM
Finally a semi-realistic poll. Even split. Indies are a little more toward Obama than most others show, but breaking to Romney 51-46 isn’t ridiculous.
Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 9:32 PM
Still not sure make to make of any of this – Just too close to call. Beginning to think that we could see a popular/electoral split in favor of the president. Romney’s surging, but I’m worried that it may be too late, especially in Ohio with the ridiculous early voting system they have.
Keeping my hopes up, but right know I just really don’t know what to expect anymore.
JFS61 on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM
“So, who are you voting for this year?
Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:24 PM”
Romney
gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM
I don’t know the facts of the story. Frankly, I care more about what happened in Benghazi. People DIED and people in the WH LIED.
Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM
Welcome to all the trolls now infesting this thread, we left some cookies and warm milk on the counter for you guys and gals!
Play nice!
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM
Oh, you will be.
You will be.
chumpThreads on October 26, 2012 at 9:34 PM
Nice try!!! hahahahahahahahaha
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM
Liar.
JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 9:36 PM
Awwww. How sweet of you.
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:36 PM
Raquel, remember 2004 instead, when the left tried their hardest to demoralize us. John Kerry even thought he had won. In the end we got to laugh in all their faces.
It’s not going to be 2008. It’s going to be 2004. Only it’s probably not really going to be all that close…
Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 9:37 PM
The natives seem to regard this with some skepticism.
Gee I wonder why.
Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 9:38 PM
I looked on twitter and CAC and NumberCruncher are discounting it. I am not a poll wiz so I don’t know what to think. I just feel better that there is finally a poll showing Romney ahead.
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:38 PM
yes I was too young to vote, but I remember watching the results as they came in. My dad was horrified because of the “exit polls.” But it turned out as a pleasant surprise when Kerry conceded.
Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 9:40 PM
Steeler Nation, you say? What happened the last time the two teams met? :-)
Steve Eggleston on October 26, 2012 at 9:44 PM
How are things at Morse Science High these days?
-2
Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 9:45 PM
LONG before MN will.
WryTrvllr on October 26, 2012 at 9:48 PM
here’s something for your little brain to ponder: no one who is polling 50 and over in gallup consistently mid October lost an election, an incumbent who cannot crack 50 for this long is in a hole so deep he really has no wiggle room and is likely to lose, and a challenger who is beating the incumbent by mid to high teens with independents, who is killing with major demographic portions of this country, and is ahead on all issues that matter to the majority is very likely to win. no amount of trolling will change that. so go ahead, waste hotgas bandwidth.
runner on October 26, 2012 at 9:50 PM
This is more or less a public service announcement to everyone freaking out about Ohio and listening to the trolls about how much the auto bailout helped Ohio.
The amount of auto industry jobs that GM and Chrysler provides in Ohio only accounts for one third of all of the auto industry jobs in the state. Honda and Ford provide the other two thirds. I really don’t think the workers of Honda and Ford or their family and friends are thanking Obama for anything.
The sequestration is a whole lot bigger of an issue for Obama in Ohio than the auto bailout ever could be. WPAFB (Wright Patterson Air Force Base) is the largest Air Force base in the country. Dayton’s economy is very dependent on it. Not just the base, but the surrounding companies also.
This is coming from someone with first hand knowledge. My hometown is Marysville which is where Honda and their supporting companies are and I went to Wright State University and as the name suggests it is right next to Wright Patterson.
Quit buying into the trolls idiotic talking points when they probably can’t name a city in the state outside of Cleveland let alone know anything else about the state. Listen to the people on the ground in the state. I no longer live in Ohio, but like I said, I still go back about every 3-4 months because both my wife and I have family that still live there. There are other posters here that are on the ground there and know what’s going on though.
MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 9:54 PM
“Romney
gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:33 PM
The natives seem to regard this with some skepticism.
Gee I wonder why.
Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 9:38 PM”
It’s always better to be realistic/pessimistic, expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised, then to get naive hopes up and be crestfallen.
gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 9:54 PM
Impressive Resume.
/
-2
Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 10:29 PM
Anyone that is sitting on GM stock is a fool.
slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 10:32 PM
FIFY
Nicole Coulter on October 26, 2012 at 10:45 PM
like the current administration….
rwenger43 on October 26, 2012 at 11:12 PM
These people amaze me.
They really must believe in God, because they certainly don’t believe in natural selection. If they did, they would adapt to survive.
I have never ever ever ever seen any group of people attempt to use a single tool–mockery–to accomplish so much, and to fail to recognize when it has stopped working.
Like they say, if your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. But when the nail adapts itself to resist the hammer, what do you swing then, Brilliant One?
The Democratic Party deserves to go extinct, just like they have determined that reasoned discourse should be extinct. Just ask Sheriff Joe. And President Petty.
rwenger43 on October 26, 2012 at 11:23 PM
Why?
Do you not have to drive?
Do you not need money?
Do you not rely on consumers for a living?
Oh, you must work for the government!
Really, do you not understand that the bill for all of Obama’s waste starts coming due this next fiscal year? And this guy hasn’t floated a worthwhile budget–that has garnered a SINGLE supporting vote in the Senate–in over 3 years?
If President Petty-Cash-isn’t-enough-for-me wants any kind of successful legacy, he needs to hope for a Romney win that will allow Mitt to restore some better financial footing for our country.
Because if Barack wins, he will have a legacy alright, but it will be brief.
rwenger43 on October 26, 2012 at 11:33 PM
Lies make baby Jesus cry, you know.
Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 11:49 PM
I’m sure you had wished I didn’t read it.
Because it says this:
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………….
Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 11:54 PM
Lucking Fire.
hawkdriver on October 27, 2012 at 12:53 AM
Channeling Yoda are we, Chump?
He’s a muppet, you know.
Sterling Holobyte on October 27, 2012 at 2:12 AM
Ouch! You almost have me feeling sorry for old Gumby, dammit!
Almost.
Sterling Holobyte on October 27, 2012 at 2:20 AM
In other polling news:
PPP released their Wed-Friday national poll (PDF).
Still 48-48% with a D+6 sample. Previously it was D+4% and tied at 48-48%. If they would have kept the same differential this poll would have yielded:
Romney 48.8% vs Obama 47.2%
To be reported as 49% R / 47% O. I wonder why they adjusted their sample…
What’s crazy is that it’s actually a 41% Dem / 35% Repub sample. They have Indys breaking to Romney by 12%, 52-40%. With a 41% base, Obama can only muster 48%, which is really bad news for him.
Now, 41% Dem is crazy, nothing like that will happen, but let’s assume they’re correct about the margin (which is unlikely) and adjust it down to the 2008 range. A 37%D/31%R/32%I turnout is a win for Romney.
At D+6%: 48.6% Romney vs 47.8% Obama
At D+5%: 49% Romney vs 47.4% Obama
At D+4%: 49.4% Romney vs 47% Obama
At D+3%: 49.8% Romney vs 46.6% Obama
(all assuming 32% I)
strictnein on October 27, 2012 at 2:40 AM
Only 9 more days to go guys. Keep the faith. Good will prevail over evil in the end.
tkyang99 on October 27, 2012 at 3:59 AM
In the end, commies never win…ever. You’d think they’d have learned that by now.
In their heart-of-heart’s, pinko’s don’t really think they deserve to win. Their innate “self-loathing” keeps them from believing they deserve anything but misery.
They only way they even get CLOSE to succeeding to “change the world” is to lie about who they really are and what they really want to do. Sooner or later, either they accidentally tell the truth about who they really are, or their self-loathing overtakes them.
History is littered with the corpses of the failed marxist regimes…
Strike Hornet on October 27, 2012 at 4:32 AM
Agreed.. Never heard of this polling company before and the results seem a bit skewed.
2004 made me freak out.. Big time. My main fear is that we’ll all be in happy places during the day, but get a rude awakening around 12 AM when Ohio and Wisconsin don’t flip. Even sadder is that it now seems likely that Mittens will win the popular vote.
Mittens should be parked in Ohio trying to flip that state and Ryan should be parked in WI for the next week.
Illinidiva on October 27, 2012 at 7:30 AM
– IBD
Romney needs to pull a magical trick to win 270 EV’s – in Ohio, he is betting on a certain few counties going for him big time – i am not saying that it wont happen . How ever there are two big assumptions that Romney’s strategy is based on
A)He is relying on Obama voters of 2008 not to come back and vote for Obama again.
– IMHO, this is not a good strategy.Sorry to say this, but there are many people in the US today who are of voting age but who have no business being inside a polling both – these are the freeloaders and unemployed grads who helped Obama win last time.
B)He is relying on McCain voters of 2008 to not vote for Obama even though Obama backed the auto bail out and has been hitting Romney HARD on this issue.
– This is probably the toughest for Romney.If enough Ohioans are appreciative of what Obama did when it comes to the bailouts then Romney is going to have no chance.
What Romney has done at this point is to make the race competitive – it was not looking that way about 3 weeks back. He still has a very steep hill to climb.
But here is the worst part of it all – he could win the popular vote at the national level and that may still not matter as he cannot crack the electoral college fortress that Obama has built for himself by using the black and Hispanic communities
nagee76 on October 27, 2012 at 9:04 AM
MobileVideoEngineer…. thanks for giving me hope :-) Yes, outside of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus and Youngstown i do not know too many places in Ohio. I went to grad school in Western NY and after studying, working and living in the US for 9 plus years went back home in 2010.
I have no clue at this point as to how things are going to pan out in Ohio or for that matter in any other battleground state, but after reading your post, I am more hopeful. Thanks.
nagee76 on October 27, 2012 at 9:16 AM
Another interesting take on history of Ohio voting
http://electioninsight.biz/news.html
Animal60 on October 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM
And for the poll trolls that depend on the RCP average……there is this gem
http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html
Animal60 on October 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM
Another interesting look at what’s going on now in Ohio. I’d tell Gumby to read this, but it wouldn’t fit his narrative.
ShadowsPawn on October 27, 2012 at 11:53 AM
Yeah, someone (either Rational Thought or RWM) has posted the difference in numbers on here before and all gumby has to say is the standard lib talking point of Obama’s ground game is unprecedented and the auto bailout helped Obama in Ohio. Well I’ve debunked the last part at least 10 times to at least 3 different trolls and they either ignore it or they just go back to the other talking point.
The people who need to be really worried about Ohio are dems though. The sequestration is the huge elephant in the room that is Ohio. I don’t think they realize how big of a deal that is in Ohio. I mentioned Wright Patt, but I forgot to mention the Defense Supply Center Columbus. Military is a lot bigger of a deal than the auto industry.
MobileVideoEngineer on October 27, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 12:48 PM
Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 12:48 PM
Romney draws 12,000 in Defiance, Ohio Population 16,484
Barry BAMSTAHHHHHHH!!!!! YOU DA MANNNNNNNNNNN BAMMMMMMMY BABYYYY!!! LOVE YA BARRY OL BUDDY OL PALLLLLLL!!!!!! YAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
cat_ on October 5:03
cableguy615 on October 27, 2012 at 1:05 PM
Not to rain on your parade, but care to name one that failed? Save for some Eastern Europe states that used to be capitalist even under Soviet control (private property, private business, etc) that were, in effect, not really communist. But, sure, name one. Europe is rapidly moving through mild socialist to heavy socialist and on the road to communist states.
Problem is that it is much easier to convince people to get something for free on the backs of others who work for it rather than the other way around. 47% and all that. Actually, 47% and growing…
riddick on October 27, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Romney and Ryan drew 6,000 here in Henderson, NV during work hours. Hussein drew about 3,000 during evening Katy Perry concert while news media reported “13,000″ without any shred of proof (no photos, no videos, nothing but a claim). NV is more in play for R/R than media wants to admit.
riddick on October 27, 2012 at 3:16 PM
Commenter from a poll link on Akin race today, pretty much sums up why communism is not losing, by a wide mile:
If Todd Akin is elected to the Senate and Willard is elected President, and with a Republican Congress, Women will be forced to wear burkas, rape will be legal, and any woman that is raped will be stoned for being an adulteress.
Points out how stupid and delusional liberal crowd is, the one that claims (supposed) superiority in in education. Can’t imagine being an adult and actually believing this utter crap. And scientists still insist on theory of evolution?
riddick on October 27, 2012 at 3:22 PM
Go Romney!! No Apologies
Dollayo on October 28, 2012 at 5:50 AM
Most HotAir readers will be very surprised and angry on November 6 when they figure out Obama will stay in office until 2017:-)
Today’s dose of cold reality, courtesy of Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
Summarizing: battleground state polls have a good track record in presidential elections. If a presidential candidate is trailing in a battleground state by more than 1% on election night or even ten days out, history suggests he will lose. In 2008, Obama managed to beat the odds in IN despite trailing by 1.4% in the RCP average while McCain managed to catch up in MO despite being down by 1.4% with ten days to go. Now, what does poor Mitt have to do? Obama’s lead in OH, WI, IA and NV is in the 2-2.4% range according to RealClearPolitics. Romney is trailing by less than a point in NH while the candidates are tied on CO, VA. That’s quite a lot of states that he needs to win despite currently being down in the polls.
Speaking about RealClearPolitics, have you guys checked the recent trend?:-)
10/22 New Hampshire Romney »»» Obama Obama 281 – Romney 257
10/26 Colorado Romney »»» Obama Obama 290 – Romney 248
Next on the list: Virginia… Obama has just erased Romney’s lead and the candidates are tied there again. Purple Strategies, JZ Analytics/Newsmax, Gravis and Zogby all claim the race is now an exact tie while Washington Post reports Obama is up by 4%.
MARCU$
mlindroo on October 28, 2012 at 6:27 PM
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