Men/Women:

2004: 46/54
2008: 47/53
2012: 48/52

Men: Change from 8 to 12: +1
Women: -1

Non-Hispanic White 2004/2008/2012: 82/78/78 (no change)

Non-white: 15/19/20 (+1)

Black: 8/12/11 (-1)

Hispanic: 6/6/7 (+1)

18-29 years: 13/14/13 (-1)

30-49: 38/35/34 (-1)

50-64: 26/30/31 (+1)

65+: 24/21/22 (+1)

East: 23/22/23 (+1)

Midwest: 23/22/23 (+1)

South: 33/33/33 (no change)

West: 22/23/22 (-1)

HS or less: 32/33/31 (-2)

Some college: 33/30/31 (+1)

Coll. Grad: 15/20/20 (no change)

Postgrad: 20/16/17 (+1)

Democrat: 37/39/35 (-4)

Independent: 24/31/29 (-2)

Republican: 39/29/36 (+7)

Democrat/Lean Democrat: 48/54/46 (-8)

Republican/Lean Republican: 48/42/49 (+7)

I can attest to the battle of the ads in Ohio! While getting ready for work this morning I heard back to back Romney ads. One batch of ads. lasted 3-4 minutes! They are really hitting the airwaves heavily :)

wolverinefan on October 26, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I’ve seen that as well, during last weeks football games there were several commercial breaks that went Romney ad, Mandel ad (or Renacci ad, the rep around here), general republican anti-Obama ad, Romney ad. Every commercial break had at least 1 of those ads as well.

Whoa, that caught me off guard. Brown has been pummeling Mandel with negative ads and I have yet to see an ad from Mandel. I assumed he was a goner.

Norky on October 26, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I’ve seen lots ads for Mandel, mostly during football or baseball games but then that’s all I watch on broadcast TV. Last night I actually saw a Mandel commercial on cable TV, highlighted how Obama’s anti-business and anti-oil policies are hurting small businesses in Youngstown. Youngstown has been somewhat reborn doing oil related manufacturing so it’s a double whammy for businesses there.

As for Brown he used to have that ridiculous “auto bailout saved 800,000 jobs in Ohio” ad (really? without the auto bailout 1 in 7 jobs would have been lost?) that ran constantly. I rarely see his ads anymore though. Same with Obama but they may have figured out sports watchers aren’t their best source of votes and moved to comedy central, BET, MTV, lifetime, bravo and so forth.

R: 51% (+1)

O: 46% (-1)

R +5

DENVER — Election Day is still more than a week away according to the calendar, but nearly 10 percent of Colorado voters have already cast their ballots, and the Republicans are leading.

Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler’s office reports 325,810 residents have already cast ballots. With about 3.6 million people registered in Colorado, that means more than 8.9 percent of the state’s electorate has voted with 13 days to go before polls even open. The state’s mail-in ballots went out Oct. 15, and in-person early voting began Monday.

Republicans are outstripping Democrats in early voting with 126,539 ballots cast compared to 120,965 from Democrats, according to Gessler’s office.

http://watchdog.org/60346/co-early-voting-shows-gop-in-lead/

Poll #1: Ohio Votes/NBC Channel 4 (Columbus) Poll: Brown 43, Mandel 42
MTF on October 26, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Whoa, that caught me off guard. Brown has been pummeling Mandel with negative ads and I have yet to see an ad from Mandel. I assumed he was a goner.

“Poll #1: Ohio Votes/NBC Channel 4 (Columbus) Poll: Brown 43, Mandel 42

Poll #2: Mandel’s internal poll by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies has him up 1 over Sherrod Brown, 45-44%.

Mandel holds a 9 point lead among Independents, 45-36%.”

These numbers are based upon a D+5 sample. If Gallup is correct about the national demo, and if Ohio bears any sort of resemblance to that demo, we could be seeing a substantially better result for Mandel and, by extension, for Romney.

IBD/Tipp (D+7):

Obama: 47 (-1)

Romney: 46

O +1

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 12:16 PM

That’s not good… for Obama.

Obama: 47 (-1)

Romney: 46

O +1

Gumb – now you are disecting them too….

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Oh, he only dissects them looking for data to cherrypick. Yesterday, he came here screaming about the WaPo poll: “Only 73% of Conservatives support Romney!!!”

What he neglected to say was that the poll showed that Romney was doing better with Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals than McCain did and Obama is doing worse with Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals than he did 4 years ago.

The walls around the Obama fortress continue to crumble. Now he is getting to in a figurative sense the problem of trapped desparate people wishing for help and none is coming. Seems kind of fitting, don’t you think?

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Heck, just the fact that the media and Obama are clinging to a single state like Ohio is proof enough that it’s over. It was supposed to be inevitable that he would win (although I never thought so), this was the media meme no matter how far outside of reality it actually was, but now they have been forced to hanging on as tight as they possibly can to a single state. That’s not the sign of a winning campaign.

A couple of things to say – Obama isn’t going to win Independents. A D+5 in Wisconsin or any other swing state (not to mention higher D splits) also isn’t going to happen.

The walls around the Obama fortress continue to crumble. Now he is getting to in a figurative sense the problem of trapped desparate people wishing for help and none is coming. Seems kind of fitting, don’t you think?

10.10.12

Number of Registered Voters in Ohio is Down ~400,000 From 2008

Right now, there are about 7.9 million registered voters in Ohio. That compares to 8.3 million who were registered four years ago, the last presidential election year.

http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/number-of-registered-voters-statewide-is-down-from-four-years-ago

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Well a couple of months ago there was a story about how Ohio purged over 400,000 names from the voter rolls because of them moving out of state or no longer being alive. I moved out of Ohio in 2009, I’m now in Missouri.

So you’d unload a guy like that on their profession? Why do you hate monkey cage cleaners?

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 11:36 AM

cause I’m a meany mean ol conservative…

:P

Number of Registered Voters in Ohio is Down ~400,000 From 2008

Right now, there are about 7.9 million registered voters in Ohio. That compares to 8.3 million who were registered four years ago, the last presidential election year.

http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/number-of-registered-voters-statewide-is-down-from-four-years-ago

With a demo like that we can accomplish a lot! Now we just need to make it real.

I’m following Hawk’s lead on this.. I’m simply going to ignore him.. he’s not stealing anymore threads.. two lines are enough for him. Just to say… uh huh…

as if he’s ever been right,.. on anything.

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:33 AM

He’s just an annoyance, pretty much a fetishist for his precious polls. He holds tight to what is basically nothing, being a pest.

I rarely address liberals directly, and Hawk’s view is the right course in this instance. I can handle an ‘honest’ liberal who will say to me, “I believe in X because…” and give me a solid reason for holding that particular view. Then we can maybe have a discussion.

Gumby, on the other hand, is going to be a mess Nov. 7 no matter who wins.

I’m not a he.

Here’s the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Please don’t rely on my numbers. Do you own math everyday. I’m sure that you don’t need me to save you the time.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Nice spreadsheet. Shame they wouldn’t cough up the 2008 data for Butler, Warren or Clermont counties, would’ve been very interesting, I think.

I love a good teacher.. but guys like him, are unfit to clean monkey cages..

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:29 AM

So you’d unload a guy like that on their profession? Why do you hate monkey cage cleaners?

That same year, my daughter was in the 4th grade, and her flamboutyantly gay teacher, (purple pants, flowered shirts)..

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Oh, God, that’s so funny! In 1971, I had a male teacher who dressed like that. He even wore purple shoes! And he wasn’t gay (far as I know).