The last-minute battle of the ad-bulge

posted at 10:01 am on October 26, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

It’s a strange and tricky business, these campaign-ad wars, and not merely because of the content of the advertising (in a desperate bid to cling to the diminishing gender gap, for instance, many of Team Obama’s ads are doing their darndest to convince the ladies that the singular most crucial issue of this election is, in fact, “women’s health” a.k.a. abortion and that conservatives want to “limit access” to contraception, or something).

Word on the street is that Team Romney has been holding back somewhat on their advertising buys and waiting for the opportune moment to unleash a deluge onto the airwaves, particularly in swing-states — a contrast from the Obama campaign’s modus operandi of buying and airing ads steadily all along. Seems like a risky strategy at its face, but the way things have played out, I’m wondering if it will turn out to be the masterstroke.

The debates revealed to America a capable, collected, and kind Mitt Romney that looked nothing like the Mitt Romney they’d been directed to hate and fear by the barrage of negative ads from Team O, and now, all of the momentum and optimism is on Mitt Romney’s side. If people aren’t already too weary of political ads, building on their new awareness of and receptiveness to the Republican candidate at this crucial juncture could be the key to bringing this thing home. Politico reports:

Romney and the Republican National Committee came into October sitting on $146 million, more than the $100 million Obama and the Democratic National Committee had. And as of Oct. 17, with three weeks to go, Romney and the RNC still had about $120 million in the bank.

… They say this was the Republican strategy all along: to wait as close to Election Day as possible to hit the airwaves in swing media markets with a barrage of Romney ads — a stark contrast to the Obama campaign’s strategy, which has been to spend heavily on advertising consistently, making many of the buys in advance when it could negotiate a better price and airtime. …

Another point for comforting Romney supporters is early voting trends. It was no doubt a key factor for Obama’s campaign in spending heavily on advertising in early October, but it wasn’t for the GOP because Democrats are more likely to vote early than Republicans.

The National Journal has more on the opening floodgates:

This week alone, Republican groups are combining to spend $59 million across 13 states. Obama and two other Democratic groups are spending a comparatively paltry $36 million across 10 states. Collectively, the Republican side has spent $115 million more than the Democratic side — $539 million versus $424 million, according to sources watching the advertising market.

Romney and his Republican allies are outspending Obama in every battleground state, the data show. In some states, the disparity is only minor; the GOP is spending just over $600,000 more in New Hampshire than Obama’s side. In other states, the Republican advantage runs into the seven figures — Republicans are outspending Democrats by more than $5 million in Florida, $4 million in Ohio, $3.3 million in Wisconsin, and $2 million each in Iowa and Virginia. …

All told, the two sides have spent almost $200 million on advertising in Ohio and Florida, and another $152 million on the Virginia airwaves. The breakneck pace of spending has only increased — this week, the two sides are spending a combined $17.8 million in Florida, $15.4 million in Virginia, and an incredible $21 million in Ohio.

The Obama campaign has been steadily advertising and purchasing their spots in advance, investing a lot of money and effort into constructing a particular image of Mitt Romney — that was all but shattered in practically a single debate. I detect the hint of the successful businessman in Team R’s strategy: If you’re willing to wait it out and maybe pay a little more, you can measure conditions closer to the main event, and now they have the resources on hand to potentially close this deal. We’ll see if it pays off.


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Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed.

Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Romney is finishing strong. Obama peaked a long time ago. The Bill Clinton convention speech bounce was Obama’s zenith.

It’s over for Obama. But let’s not just go for a win; let’s go for a huge knockout!

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Well if Romney can manage to hold steady with Obama’s ad spending in the swing states, he should be able to maintain this 50-47 lead and get a respectable win.

Otherwise if Obama is able to outpace Romney in distributing some of the ads he’s released lately, then it will definitely be a Romney landslide.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 10:07 AM

If they’re sitting on that much cash, how are they not flooding MI and PA, too?

You also have to wonder about diminishing returns. People have been inundated with ads for weeks. If it works, though, I tip my hat to them.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Pay attention. It wasn’t the captain.

If you’re willing to wait it out and maybe pay a little more, you can measure conditions closer to the main event, and now they have the resources on hand to potentially close this deal. We’ll see if it pays off.

Not so sure about that one. If the election is close, you may be right. But, as in 1980, 1994, 2010 and Chick-fil-A, it wouldn’t matter.

cozmo on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed.
Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.
MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

This is what a confident campaign looks like. I feel so much better than I did four years ago with McCain.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I do not like prevent defense. My preference is to be aggressive right up to the buzzer. Team Romney has elected to glide a bit too much for my taste. Romney will still win. The question remains as to by how much.

Bmore on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM

VRWC… RICH.. EVIL…BIG Money.. Outside Groups…

antisocial on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed. er… Erika

Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Sorry, it’s still a little early here.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Gallup now saying Rs have the edge in party ID…

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Obama Campaign…

Birth Control
Big Bird
Binders
Bayonets
Bullshitter

“Solid B”

nitzsche on October 26, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Otherwise if Obama is able to outpace Romney in distributing some of the ads he’s released lately, then it will definitely be a Romney landslide.
Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I like what you did there.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Drudge has developing headline: WI–R 49% O 49%.

Also from the WAPO/ABC poll: 7 swing states– R 52% O 46%

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed.

Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

YEAH!!!!

gophergirl on October 26, 2012 at 10:16 AM

It’s sad how many young women are believing and repeating this “conservatives want to limit acces to birth control” lie.

They should run an ad that has two “feminists” talking. One saying “I can’t believe they want to take away birth control pills.” The other could explain that, because she believes in true equality for women, she doesn’t think the government or any other benevolent patriarchy should provide her necessities like contraception. A truly independent woman gets them own her own.

gatsbysgirlontheside on October 26, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Obama Campaign…

Birth Control
Big Bird
Binders
Bayonets
Bullshitter

“Solid B”

nitzsche on October 26, 2012 at 10:09 AM

LOL!

themediansib on October 26, 2012 at 10:20 AM

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Thatnks.

I guess there is a good reason to keep a HA link after all.

cozmo on October 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

It’s sad how many young women are believing and repeating this “conservatives want to limit acces to birth control” lie.

gatsbysgirlontheside on October 26, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Of the four men on the two tickets, only one – Joe Biden – has ever cast a vote in favor of a Constitutional amendment overturning Roe v. Wade.

Washington Nearsider on October 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I hope that GOTV efforts are fully funded if they are playing head fake strategery games

ChrisL on October 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed.

Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Romney is probably not really after Minnesota, which even Ronald Reagan could not win. But TV ads in the Twin Cities and Duluth could reach voters in western and northern Wisconsin, who are probably their true target.

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Is that an ad-bulge in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?

Flange on October 26, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Is that an ad-bulge in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?

Flange on October 26, 2012 at 10:25 AM

LOL.

I thought this was going to be another “vote for Obama..he’s so dreamy” article.

HumpBot Salvation on October 26, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Since I have been an adult I have almost exclusively voted for Republicans. I’m now supposed to believe that, what, it was just dumb luck that I’ve managed to take care of my own health that entire time without the assistance of the federal government? What exactly has changed that I should now vote for a Democrat as if my “lady parts” (an offensive phrase if there ever was one) depended on it?

natasha333 on October 26, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Ha, I was looking for a place to post this. Perfect timing Ed.

Romney places TV ads in Minnesota

This is like what Bush did in California. It means Romney is winning and he knows it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:04 AM

As long Romney’s also running ads in WI, PA, MI, NH, IA, and NV. Those are far more likely pickups than MN. I don’t want a repeat of Bush in California in 2000. That was a pipe dream that diverted funds from states like Florida. Had he not done that, the recount may have never been necessary.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 10:27 AM

What is the different between the Green Room and the Headlines?

Oil Can on October 26, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Romney is probably not really after Minnesota, which even Ronald Reagan could not win. But TV ads in the Twin Cities and Duluth could reach voters in western and northern Wisconsin, who are probably their true target.

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 10:21 AM

True, but it’s not like Bush was really expecting to get California either. He may have been going after Arizon and Nevada, but just having the headlines read that a Republican is putting money into a traditionally Democrat stronghold is certainly a way to scare the crap out of the other side.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Romney is on the air in Northern Michigan, 1st time I’ve seen ads in the Presidential race here this cycle.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:29 AM

What is the different between the Green Room and the Headlines?

Oil Can on October 26, 2012 at 10:28 AM

It’s format suggests it is copying the corner at national review. Ed/AP/etal talk amongst themselves.

lorien1973 on October 26, 2012 at 10:30 AM

While we all would have liked to have seen Romney bludgeon JugEars upside the head (verbally of course, not literally) and it would have mad us all feel great, Romney has played it correctly as shown by the movement of women to his side from where it was. No need to change course now. Just continue to fire everyone up on the trail in the swing states!

Hemmer was just on Fox News saying that 1million jobs have been lost this year because of the looming fiscal cliff, and that 6 million more jobs will be lost by 2014 because of it, with the unemployment rate reaching 12%. by then. THAT needs to be a Romney campaign add nationally.

Rockshine on October 26, 2012 at 10:31 AM

The key here is to ignore…IGNORE the fake polls and media trying to tell us the Obama still holds a lead in blah, blah, blah.

They know that the only thing Obama has going for him is that his re-election once felt inevitable (mostly to fools, but whatever.)

As soon as folks see that it’s okay not to drink the Obama Kool-Aid… buh-bye soft support. This is a 54-46 Romney win if we don’t get lazy or distracted.

Oh, and know that the lie they will hang on to the longest is that O is still up in Ohio. He’s not. They know it. But they don’t want you to.

Sugar Land on October 26, 2012 at 10:31 AM

What is the difference between the Green Room and the Headlines?

Oil Can on October 26, 2012 at 10:28 AM

You can’t post in the “new” Green Room.

Fallon on October 26, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Thank heavens I am in Texas. The only ads here are for local races — and I mean local local. I have not even seen one ad for Ted Cruz for the Senate race. Not that I’d mind seeing Romney ads, but being spared the beady-eyed, hissing, hectoring Obama ads is a real blessing. As for Obama bumper stickers and yard signs? I’ve seen exactly 10. In Houston. And I drive around a lot.

natasha333 on October 26, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Romney up 4 on CERTAIN to vote, 51-47 in Wisc…

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Obama peaked a long time ago. The Bill Clinton convention speech bounce was Obama’s zenith.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Obama supports women who peak with Bill Clinton bounce.

Archivarix on October 26, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Is Team Romney still gonna produce/run that closing 30-minute campaign infomercial? I think this is a brilliant idea…and a very practical way to burn those extra millions as the election winds down.

I can’t wait to see it.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Romney is on the air in Northern Michigan, 1st time I’ve seen ads in the Presidential race here this cycle.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Wow, Minnesota and Northern Michigan? Maybe they really are making a final push for Wisconsin.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Drudge has developing headline: WI–R 49% O 49%.

Also from the WAPO/ABC poll: 7 swing states– R 52% O 46%

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:15 AM

I think the trend is still very slow, but also very steady and very clear, RC. I’m here in Clarksville TN for a few months with a contract. Not many politcal signs at all up until a week ago and then they seemed to be mostly “MITT” bumper stickers and Romney/Ryan yardsigns. Less for the OPFOR. Heading to Ft. Campbell yesterday though, I did see a single car literally covered on the back end with stickers for obama. “Obama/Biden”, “TN Democrat” and more. Seems a metaphor for me. Not as many supporters as last time but the Donk base is still solidly behind this guy.

When I got my “MITT” sticker in the mail from Mrs. Hawkdriver (not her real name). I put it on in the evening and then the next day got a lot of nice waves and a horn honk or two with thumbs up. Then turning from University to Madison to go to a bike shop there, I thought a lady was going to have an accident trying to get around my truck and get into position to give me a single finger salute.

We’re getting there.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 10:36 AM

s Team Romney still gonna produce/run that closing 30-minute campaign infomercial? I think this is a brilliant idea…and a very practical way to burn those extra millions as the election winds down.

I can’t wait to see it.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I think multiple long run 2 minute commercials would be more effective.

lorien1973 on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Since I have been an adult I have almost exclusively voted for Republicans. I’m now supposed to believe that, what, it was just dumb luck that I’ve managed to take care of my own health that entire time without the assistance of the federal government? What exactly has changed that I should now vote for a Democrat as if my “lady parts” (an offensive phrase if there ever was one) depended on it?

natasha333 on October 26, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Maybe people think that now that the government is meddling in healthcare, there’s a chance those evil Republicans will finagle their way in and take away all the care women have ever had.

Democrats created Obamacare, which regulates treatment, so they can forever run ads claiming that Republicans want to regulate treatment. Crazy.

gatsbysgirlontheside on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

It sure is hard sugar land when you’re bombarded with Obama has the advantage
.
Mitt is evil and doesn’t connect he cant win in Ohio

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 10:38 AM

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I have to disagree. With attention spans being what they are in the populace today. My take is that the only folks who will bother to watch are the folks already voting Romney Ryan. 60 , 30 second spots targeted in swing states would be a much more effective media purchase.

Bmore on October 26, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Wow, Minnesota and Northern Michigan? Maybe they really are making a final push for Wisconsin.

My area of northern Michigan wouldn’t involve WI. I’m in the northern Lower Peninsula, so it would be a MI only play. TV Market is Traverse City/Cadillac/Alpena.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Team Obama’s ads are doing their darndest to convince the ladies that the singular most crucial issue of this election is, in fact, “women’s health” a.k.a. abortion and that conservatives want to “limit access” to contraception, or something).

…what’s next?…that if you vote for Romney…if he wins he will take your children and force them to work in sweat shops?

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Fourth day IN A ROW that Ras has it 50-47 for Romney. Zero CANNOT get above 47. That is his absolute ceiling. 47…47…47…where have I heard that number?

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Maybe people think that now that the government is meddling in healthcare, there’s a chance those evil Republicans will finagle their way in and take away all the care women have ever had.

Democrats created Obamacare, which regulates treatment, so they can forever run ads claiming that Republicans want to regulate treatment. Crazy.

gatsbysgirlontheside on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

That’s it! Ironic – and it’s a crime that the monster created by the Democrats is being used against Republicans and conservatives.

natasha333 on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Keep on trucking Hawkdriver
:)

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

In economic hard time, we have Barry XVI and Moochelle Antoinette.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/spending-on-white-house-dinners-soars-under-obama/article/2511758#.UIqe6meAPbq

President Obama has spent far more lavishly on White House state dinners than previous chief executives, including nearly $1 million on a 2010 dinner for Mexico’s president, according to documents obtained by The Washington Examiner.

And fracking Barry cannot just mail his absentee ballot in or vote on Election Day in Chicago, but he has to fly in to Chicago on Air Force One on our dime for a photo-op.

bayview on October 26, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Fourth day IN A ROW that Ras has it 50-47 for Romney. Zero CANNOT get above 47. That is his absolute ceiling. 47…47…47…where have I heard that number?

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I think it would be just awesomely sweet if that is what percentage Obama ends up with.

gophergirl on October 26, 2012 at 10:42 AM

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Sa w your comments on Ed’s appearrence this a.m. Sounds like he did a bang up job. I have emailed him in an attempt to have him post it. Fingers crossed. There are only a few times when I regret owning no tv’s. This qualifies as one. Thanks for your comments. ; )

Bmore on October 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM

My area of northern Michigan wouldn’t involve WI. I’m in the northern Lower Peninsula, so it would be a MI only play. TV Market is Traverse City/Cadillac/Alpena.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

That’s even better then. People were saying the Minnesota ads were targeted at Wisconsin so I figured if he was running ads in the Upper Peninsula that it would also be for Wisconsin.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
As teased by Drudge, Rasmussen poll shows a tie in Wisconsin @ 49%. Romney up 4 on CERTAIN to vote, 51-47.

WI, CO & NH gets us to 271 w/o Ohio, so there are 2 paths to victory.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM

When I got my “MITT” sticker in the mail from Mrs. Hawkdriver (not her real name). I put it on in the evening and then the next day got a lot of nice waves and a horn honk or two with thumbs up. Then turning from University to Madison to go to a bike shop there, I thought a lady was going to have an accident trying to get around my truck and get into position to give me a single finger salute.

We’re getting there.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 10:36 AM

lOl…my best to the Mrs., Hawk. My fiance refuses to place a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker on his car–he works in the Newark, NJ financial district (that punk :).

I’m waiting on Romney/Ryan yard signs and rally posters ordered over two weeks ago. You can’t even get through to the MITT store–VM filled up and a recording says they’re trying to get merchandise out ASAP working around the clock. That’s very telling if you ask me, indicative of serious Mittmentum.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I have yet to see a Romney ad on any of the cable stations I watch. What’s he waiting for–a cross-town bus? I wish Mitt’s team would flood the airwaves so I can enjoy an ad for once instead of flipping off my TV whenever one of Obama’s comes on.

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 10:48 AM

That’s even better then. People were saying the Minnesota ads were targeted at Wisconsin so I figured if he was running ads in the Upper Peninsula that it would also be for Wisconsin.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM

It didn’t get much play around the interwebs but there was a fairly large MI poll (1100 voters I believe) a day or so ago showing a dead heat here in MI.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:48 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
As teased by Drudge, Rasmussen poll shows a tie in Wisconsin @ 49%. Romney up 4 on CERTAIN to vote, 51-47.

WI, CO & NH gets us to 271 w/o Ohio, so there are 2 paths to victory.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Nice! And how tired do those Wisconsin dems have to be of losing one election after another? Their vote will be epically depressed Nov. 6. They just don’t have it in them anymore.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Bambi was the ultimate brand. The problem is he was marketed by hardcore libs, who think that Americans are just sheep who put as much value in their vote as they do in “$19.99, if you call in the next 20 minutes”.

Then they came up against a real businessman…

FruitedPlain on October 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I think multiple long run 2 minute commercials would be more effective.

lorien1973 on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

You and Bmore have a point re attention deficit and small being more effective, but if the infomercial is produced really well, they can use entertainment (perhaps narrated by Eastwood?) to inform the swing state voter. If it’s sucky boring, don’t bother.

If just to drown out the MSM and Obama the last remaining week of the election.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Oh, and know that the lie they will hang on to the longest is that O is still up in Ohio. He’s not. They know it. But they don’t want you to.

Sugar Land on October 26, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Sugar, I’m glad you brought that up about Ohio. Seems to me from my many years of watching politics that Ohio is traditionally a Republican state. I know O has the kids all fired up, but I have always had a hard time believing the polls that are skewed Democrat. I continue to believe based on history that Romney has Ohio. When he wins Ohio, the race is over for Obama.

COgirl on October 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You’re welcome Bmore….. hopefully he’ll post it…..
:)

cmsinaz on October 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Before any of you get too excited about the Rasmussen WI poll, you should know that the partisan split is R+3 and that Obama wins Independents in the poll.

The best the breakdown will be on election day is even.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM

COgirl on October 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Shhhh! Any talk about that state next to NY will bring out gumbyandpokey! Then the neighborhood goes to hell. Shhh!

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Crap…Too late…

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM

WI, CO & NH gets us to 271 w/o Ohio, so there are 2 paths to victory.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM

There always has been. The notion that Ohio is a must-win for Romney was always simply false. Historically that has been the case, but this year that is not true. .

Ohio is actually more of a must-win for Obama than Romney.

Only clueless trolls like Gumby and Nate Silver (who might be the same person) think that Romney cant win unless he wins Ohio.

milcus on October 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Crap…Too late…

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM

We just ignore him/her/it. Not worth our time.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Then turning from University to Madison to go to a bike shop there, I thought a lady was going to have an accident trying to get around my truck and get into position to give me a single finger salute.

We’re getting there.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 10:36 AM

The Obama ads are constant here in central Ohio..

and yard signs are rare, dispite the enthusuasm, because nobody wants their cars and yards vandalized.. it has completely gotten that bad..

Yesterday, my 11 year old nice heard me speaking to her aunt about Mitt’s chances.. and unasked.. she blurted out..

“RONMEY SUCKS…. he wants to ban motherhood”….

Stunned I asked where she heard THAT piece of nonsense..

“oh.. stupid teachers won’t stop talking about him.”.

I dodged a bullet last time with my daughter, these libs and their teachers unions are what’s driving the homeschooling movement… when they propagandize an 11 year old.. are they simply loud and uncaring what the kids hear?

or is it completely a cynical attempt to brainwash our kids?..

I’m really tired of not only fighting the culture to raise mine.. but fighting the schools too?..

I agree we’re getting there..

and when, Please Lord, please… I’d very much hope we work to reign in these commissar teachers and their party indoctrination efforts..

Here in Ohio isn’t as bad as a deep blue state.. maybe one teacher out of ten is that cynical.. but it’s enough to make me think the home schoolers are right.. the public schools are a bad joke anymore.. they fail academically, but demand ever more money, then insult you by attempting to make your kids doctrinaire liberals with no regard to what the parent wants… or the academic failures of their system.

We have GOT to win..

but even then.. the hard work is only just starting.. so much to fix.

a ps..

I cannot remember back as a child, ever even knowing how my teachers voted..

what ever happened to that?

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:00 AM

From @numbersmuncher:

If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46

Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.

and

Gravis marketing NC poll has Romney up 8, 53-45. Romney up 28 among indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04)

and

Gallup party ID study has got to put more fear into Team Obama than Romney’s leads in national polls. R+1 when they had D+10 in 08 (was D+7)

and

Gravis Iowa poll has Obama +4, 50-46. Romney up by 12 w/ indys. Sample is D+6 (was D+1 in 08, R+4 in 2010). If R takes indys by 12 he wins.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Ohio, By The Numbers (Updated 10.26)

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Would you knock it off with your “Ohio votes fell 6.4% in 2008 from 2004″. Wikipedia is correct on this as confirmed by the Ohio Sec of State. 5.774 million votes were cast in Ohio in 2008 up from 5.722 million in 2004. The canvass of ballots post-election found about 5.7 million votes as well (looks like about 75,000 absentee and provisional ballots were rejected). In 2004 5.63 million votes were good, so still an increase in 2008. Now most other statewide races did see aroun 5.1-5.4 million votes cast but then there’s an obvious reason why.

Don’t make do what you do to gumby and post this in every thread where you incorrectly claim the number of votes cast in Ohio fell by 6.4%.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Wow. New Gallup survey has self-identified or leaning R’s at record levels, surpassing ’04 levels. Big drop off for Dems from 2008. I mean BIG.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 11:05 AM

From @numbersmuncher:

If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46

Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.

and

Gravis marketing NC poll has Romney up 8, 53-45. Romney up 28 among indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04)

and

Gallup party ID study has got to put more fear into Team Obama than Romney’s leads in national polls. R+1 when they had D+10 in 08 (was D+7)

and

Gravis Iowa poll has Obama +4, 50-46. Romney up by 12 w/ indys. Sample is D+6 (was D+1 in 08, R+4 in 2010). If R takes indys by 12 he wins.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Atomic Bomb. I knew Iowa was lost for the Bambster and I know Ohio is as well.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Those techers are all over mark81. Here in a normally red state near the home of the airborne, Ft. Bragg, a Fayetteville teacher busted on a girl whose father was an NCO in the 82ND.

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/11/06/child-abuser-obama-supporting-teacher-bullies-soldiers-daughter/

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I think one thing that makes Obama’s ads somewhat ineffective, is the fact that he has been campaigning for four years and many people have become numb to his voice, it’s like listening to a dial tone. On the rare occasions that the wife doesn’t tell me to mute his ads, all I hear is a blathering drone, as much as I do try to listen to what he’s saying.

Norky on October 26, 2012 at 11:07 AM

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I know exactly how you feel, when the school system propagandizes children. Especially today, when liberalism is crazy as an ideology can get. “Ban motherhood”? I have no idea where these liberals come up with stuff like that. I mean, really–abortion is kind of a way of ‘banning’ motherhood, isn’t it?

The only thing that might be remotely considered ‘political’ during my school years was after Kennedy was shot. But it wasn’t politics, no one tried saying the Russians or Castro or the Republicans did it. It was simply a matter that the President was shot and killed.

We live in some awful times, I believe.

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Wow. New Gallup survey has self-identified or leaning R’s at record levels, surpassing ’04 levels. Big drop off for Dems from 2008. I mean BIG.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 11:05 AM

There was a poll like that last month, where the republicans who self identified was higher than the democrats for the first time since the 1920′s..

all that.. and the democrats tell us,.. the numbers are looking good for them?

Obama has done something we had never expected, his savagely nasty division tactics have so depressed the blue dogs and moderate democrats.. a large number are switching parties..

Something Brokaw and Brian William’s will NEVER address.

Except to act stunned.. STUNNED that the country is completely rejecting Obama.

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:10 AM

“Would you knock it off with your “Ohio votes fell 6.4% in 2008 from 2004″. Wikipedia is correct on this as confirmed by the Ohio Sec of State. 5.774 million votes were cast in Ohio in 2008 up from 5.722 million in 2004. The canvass of ballots post-election found about 5.7 million votes as well (looks like about 75,000 absentee and provisional ballots were rejected). In 2004 5.63 million votes were good, so still an increase in 2008. Now most other statewide races did see aroun 5.1-5.4 million votes cast but then there’s an obvious reason why.

Don’t make do what you do to gumby and post this in every thread where you incorrectly claim the number of votes cast in Ohio fell by 6.4%.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:03 AM”

And his Ohio update isn’t even good news for Romney. Iowa, Nevada and Ohio are all evidence that Romney’s early vote operation is floundering, if he’s even really trying.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 11:11 AM

My area of northern Michigan wouldn’t involve WI. I’m in the northern Lower Peninsula, so it would be a MI only play. TV Market is Traverse City/Cadillac/Alpena.

Northwoods on October 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I hope so, the upper Great Lakes were represented by 4 dems in congress until 2010, now it’s 4 republicans. That is an area that by no means should be voting democrat and we will need to turn it red to offset GOP losses in the southwest.

There always has been. The notion that Ohio is a must-win for Romney was always simply false. Historically that has been the case, but this year that is not true. .

Ohio is actually more of a must-win for Obama than Romney.

Only clueless trolls like Gumby and Nate Silver (who might be the same person) think that Romney cant win unless he wins Ohio.

milcus on October 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The only time that has been true for a republican is 2000 and 2004. But in 2000 that was true of every close state Bush won, and in 2008 it was true of several of them as well.

The main reason Ohio is used is because it is a great proxy, Romney and every other other republican is very unlikely to win IA, CO, or WI while losing Ohio and it is virtually impossible for a republican to win MI and PA while losing Ohio. So while Romney can certainly win without Ohio it simply extremely unlikely, hence the continued focus on Ohio.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I’m waiting on Romney/Ryan yard signs and rally posters ordered over two weeks ago. You can’t even get through to the MITT store–VM filled up and a recording says they’re trying to get merchandise out ASAP working around the clock. That’s very telling if you ask me, indicative of serious Mittmentum.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I placed an order for Romney merchandise over a month ago and just yesterday finally got a notice that my order has shipped.

Last night was Trick or Treat in my area (don’t ask, I don’t know why it’s a tradition to have it here on the last Thursday in October instead of October 31, I think it’s silly) and on my block there are several homes with Romney signs. I heard several people, from kids to grandparents, mention how exciting it was to see so many Romney signs. Interestingly, I’m in Ohio, but the fine print on the sign says it is paid for by the North Carolina Republican party.

JenWestin on October 26, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Would you knock it off with your “Ohio votes fell 6.4% in 2008 from 2004″. Wikipedia is correct on this as confirmed by the Ohio Sec of State. 5.774 million votes were cast in Ohio in 2008 up from 5.722 million in 2004. The canvass of ballots post-election found about 5.7 million votes as well (looks like about 75,000 absentee and provisional ballots were rejected). In 2004 5.63 million votes were good, so still an increase in 2008. Now most other statewide races did see aroun 5.1-5.4 million votes cast but then there’s an obvious reason why.

Don’t make do what you do to gumby and post this in every thread where you incorrectly claim the number of votes cast in Ohio fell by 6.4%.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I got my numbers from USA Today, which cited the Ohio Secretary of State’s office. I didn’t make them up nor did I get them from some dubious website.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

“Ohio, By The Numbers (Updated 10.26)

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 10:37 AM”

You’re doing what people did in 08…try to make crap numbers look like gold. It’s not nice to mislead people who desperately want to hear good news.

Obama’s bank of early votes isn’t as strong as vs McCain, but that bank has enough votes to win Ohio again in 2012.

Strangely, in WI, the early voting is much better for the GOP than in 08.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Didn’t mean CO above, meant NH.

And his Ohio update isn’t even good news for Romney. Iowa, Nevada and Ohio are all evidence that Romney’s early vote operation is floundering, if he’s even really trying.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Other than NV the early voting numbers look great for Romney, and the only reason OH is still close is the media has shifted their skews from around D+5 to D+8 but even then Obama still fell from +6 to +2. Anyways, I’ll leave you to the tender mercies of Resist We Much, provided he uses correct voting numbers for Ohio.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I got my numbers from USA Today, which cited the Ohio Secretary of State’s office. I didn’t make them up nor did I get them from some dubious website.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

I would question the use of USA Today and not dubious. Anyhow no reason to use an incorrect MSM outlet when the Ohio Sec of State office exists.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Before any of you get too excited about the Rasmussen WI poll, you should know that the partisan split is R+3 and that Obama wins Independents in the poll.

The best the breakdown will be on election day is even.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Poll envy?

Keep telling yourself that size doesn’t matter. It is only going to get worse.

STL_Vet on October 26, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I’m in Ohio, but the fine print on the sign says it is paid for by the North Carolina Republican party.

JenWestin on October 26, 2012 at 11:13 AM

That’s because NC doesn’t need them any more.

Norky on October 26, 2012 at 11:17 AM

You’re doing what people did in 08…try to make crap numbers look like gold. It’s not nice to mislead people who desperately want to hear good news.

Obama’s bank of early votes isn’t as strong as vs McCain, but that bank has enough votes to win Ohio again in 2012.

Strangely, in WI, the early voting is much better for the GOP than in 08.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

I’m not doing anything, RuPoll, but reporting the returns in the most important counties in OHIO.

Once again, you attempt to deflect by bringing up another state. Yesterday, when I posted the update, you brought up Nevada. Today, it is Wisconsin.

As for Obama’s bank, you’d better hope that turnout in Ohio looks like 2008. If it doesn’t, then he is in deep shyt.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Ras has Wi. at:Obama 49%, Romney 49%

Norky on October 26, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Obama has done something we had never expected, his savagely nasty division tactics have so depressed the blue dogs and moderate democrats.. a large number are switching parties..

Something Brokaw and Brian William’s will NEVER address.

Except to act stunned.. STUNNED that the country is completely rejecting Obama.

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:10 AM

So true. Many good conservative writers will explain the total destruction Zero has done to the democrat brand — likely for a generation — but the obamamedia will never touch that. Zero did what I always hoped a democrat president would inadvertently do — he told the truth about his Marxist intentions. And Americans said, “No.”

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Anyways, I’ll leave you to the tender mercies of Resist We Much, provided he uses correct voting numbers for Ohio.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM

I’m not a he.

Here’s the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Please don’t rely on my numbers. Do you own math everyday. I’m sure that you don’t need me to save you the time.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM

What is Gumby going to do after the election, when there are no more polls to cite?

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Peggy Noonan just woke up. What an empty-headed ninny!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204530504578079232194509700.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Sorry, Peg, but Palin was way ahead of you on the learning curve.

onlineanalyst on October 26, 2012 at 11:22 AM

That’s because NC doesn’t need them any more.

Norky on October 26, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Perhaps, but I got this sign more than a month ago from my local victory office, when North Carolina was most definitely still in play.

JenWestin on October 26, 2012 at 11:22 AM

For folks not familiar with jarodea’s comments, please don’t start in with the troll comments. He’s solid conservative if a bit abbrasive in his delivery. When he posts a point of order about numbers, I always read them.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I don’t want a repeat of Bush in California in 2000. That was a pipe dream that diverted funds from states like Florida. Had he not done that, the recount may have never been necessary.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The recount wouldn’t have been necessary if the media didn’t call Florida while the panhandle was still voting. That cost Bush tens of thousands of votes (which of course was the whole point of the media doing it. I doubt spending more money in FL would have had much of an effect.

eyedoc on October 26, 2012 at 11:23 AM

From @numbersmuncher:

If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46

Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Rasmussen is either trying to be in with the in crowd or he’s trying to be ironic at keeping Obama at 47.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Perhaps, but I got this sign more than a month ago from my local victory office, when North Carolina was most definitely still in play.

JenWestin on October 26, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Realistically NC stopped being in play after their definition of marriage ammendment passed.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

From @numbersmuncher:

But if you have nat’l polls showing D+6 or even D+4 and it ends up R+1 like Gallup or R+2 like Ras, thats a blowout

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’m not a he.

Here’s the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Please don’t rely on my numbers. Do you own math everyday. I’m sure that you don’t need me to save you the time.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM

It was unknown, now it’s not.

Anyhow, I don’t doubt your early voting numbers. I’ve done some looking myself and seen the same thing so I’m aware Romney is doing quite well in early voting. Just referring to the 6.4% drop is all.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Gumby’s prognostications are like trying to say the center fielder in a baseball game will miss the catch before the ball is even pitched.

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Those techers are all over mark81. Here in a normally red state near the home of the airborne, Ft. Bragg, a Fayetteville teacher busted on a girl whose father was an NCO in the 82ND.

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/11/06/child-abuser-obama-supporting-teacher-bullies-soldiers-daughter/

hawkdriver on October 26, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Hawk.. I remember that..

That same year, my daughter was in the 4th grade, and her flamboutyantly gay teacher, (purple pants, flowered shirts).. plastered his classroom with Obama posters and bling of every kind. Mandy wore my veterans ballcap one day for “hat” day.. still had a McCain Plain button on it.. and he did a pretty close imitation of that ignorant O worshiper in the class you mention. He tried to bully her, browbeat her, and make her go along with his.. your dad’s some kind of bigot.. just a redneck conservative..

and the school stood behind him, even though he was noted by many parents as an unprofessional jerk, who ruled his classroom like Stalin purging a village.

The teachers unions need to be broken, shattered and their ashes buried at sea beneath the hulk of a sunken Iranian warship.. their destroyers are small..

but they’ll do.

I love a good teacher.. but guys like him, are unfit to clean monkey cages..

mark81150 on October 26, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Realistically NC stopped being in play after their definition of marriage ammendment passed.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’d argue it ceased being in play soon after Obama was inaugerated given that a tiny shift against him was all it would take to flip NC red. I think the dems wasting so many resources trying to hold onto it will be seen as one of the stupidest political campaign decisions ever made.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Before any of you get too excited about the Rasmussen WI poll, you should know that the partisan split is R+3 and that Obama wins Independents in the poll.

The best the breakdown will be on election day is even.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Am I gonna have to follow you around for the next week just to expose every one of your lies?

From Ras’s article about this poll:

Both candidates earn strong support from voters in their respective parties. They’re tied among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties at 47%.

And then there’s this:

Romney is viewed favorably by 52% of Badger State voters and unfavorably by 47%. This includes 39% with a Very Favorable opinion of him and 34% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Forty-nine percent (49%) now approve of the job the president is doing, while 50% disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 32% and Strong Disapproval from 40%.

Zero is in big, big trouble is WI. But, of course, you know that.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

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