New FL poll shows Romney up 5, 51/46

posted at 2:01 pm on October 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’m actually a little torn on whether to rely much on the new Sunshine State News poll coming out of Florida today.  They have a decent track record in their own state, and as they report, their poll matches up with most other polling in Florida over the last week or two.  However, their cross-tab report was published in a text format, which makes it all but unusable, so it’s difficult to analyze the methodology or demographics outside of their own published report.  Who uses a raw text format in 2012 to publish results, anyway?

Still, it’s Friday, and we want to hear all the good news we can going into the weekend:

Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama.

Only 12 percent said the recent debates had any sway on their opinion, with 40 percent of those individuals saying they switched from Obama to Romney and just 22 percent going the other way. ..

The results run similar to many other recent polls for Florida conducted by:

  • Rasmussen, 52 percent to 46 percent for Romney;
  • CNN, 49 percent to 48 percent for Romney;
  • PPP, 48 percent to 47 percent for Romney;
  • Gravis Marketing, 50 percent to 49 percent.
  • Newsmax poll put the contest at 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama.

The RCP average for Florida has Romney up 2.1%, but that includes this poll.  In surveys conducted since October 17th, only Survey USA has Obama up at all — and only by one, 47/46, a hardly comforting number for an incumbent President with less than two weeks to go before the election.

SSN reports that Republicans have around a 50,000-ballot lead in early voting, which is pretty good news for the GOP, as Democrats usually do better on early voting and the GOP does better on Election Day.  They also show Romney winning men by a whopping 15 points, far outstripping Obama’s 5-point lead among women.  No word on how independents are breaking, but assuming that this poll is at all reliable, it’s looking pretty good for Romney in Florida.

In fact, it may be looking so good that Team Romney can start spending money in … Minnesota?

Mitt Romney will be running television ads in Minnesota over the weekend, The Associated Press is reporting.

The investment is described as a small buy that Democrats suggest is simply intended to generate media coverage and force President Barack Obama’s campaign to invest there as well,” the AP said.

Minnesota appears to be safely in Obama’s column at this point. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, he leads there by more than 7 percentage points, although polling is sparse because few believe it to be up for grabs.

Don’t read too much into this, at least not for Minnesota.  We’re no closer to going red than we were in 2004, when John Kerry beat George Bush by almost 4 points.  Our big media markets in Duluth and the Twin Cities have plenty of range into western Wisconsin, though, and I’d bet that Team Romney’s ad money will be aimed at getting their message out in that area.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Who uses a raw text format in 2012 to publish results, anyway?

Publications catering to an audience with a mean age of 72…

JohnGalt23 on October 26, 2012 at 2:02 PM

SSN reports that Republicans have around a 50,000-ballot lead in early voting, which is pretty good news for the GOP, as Democrats usually do better on early voting and the GOP does better on Election Day.

I think in Florida the GOP has usually had the early voting lead.

ninjapirate on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Don’t read too much into this, at least not for Minnesota. We’re no closer to going red than we were in 2004, when John Kerry beat George Bush by almost 4 points. Our big media markets in Duluth and the Twin Cities have plenty of range into western Wisconsin, though, and I’d bet that Team Romney’s ad money will be aimed at getting their message out in that area.

There is no possible way it can hurt to have ads going in the Twin Cities and Duluth. You reach basically all of Western Wisconsin AND the major population centers of Minnesota at the same time.

Red Cloud on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Joe Pounder ‏@PounderFile

CNN: Top Obama advisers “privately say it does look more likely that Romney will eke out a Virginia win” http://is.gd/xTQ3a9

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

How do you spell landslide in Floridian?

faraway on October 26, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Obama up by 2 in Ohio in a D+9 poll. Its over. Ohio is RED.

El_Terrible on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Joe Pounder ‏@PounderFile

CNN: Top Obama advisers “privately say it does look more likely that Romney will eke out a Virginia win” http://is.gd/xTQ3a9

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

It ain’t so private when it’s leaked to CNN.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I don’t understand how this is possible when PPP told me very reliably that North Carolina is dead even. I don’t know what’s going on here, but I’m sure there’s a whole lot of racism involved somehow.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Great polls today and HUGE news from Gallup that they believe party ID will be R+3.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Joe Pounder ‏@PounderFile

CNN: Top Obama advisers “privately say it does look more likely that Romney will eke out a Virginia win” http://is.gd/xTQ3a9

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

It ain’t so private when it’s leaked to CNN.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

You have to read between the lines to catch the private part. “Eke out” was leaked to CNN. Privately, it was “we won’t come within 5 and Kaine is done too.”

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Minnesota? What about PA?

anotherJoe on October 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Obama up by 2 in Ohio in a D+9 poll. Its over. Ohio is RED.

El_Terrible on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

It is terrible to tease. What poll is that? The voting virgins poll?

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Garrett Haake ‏@GarrettNBCNews

Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom says he believes race in MN is tied, which is why they’re going up with ads in Minneapolis.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Is this to protect WI or MN? #BlueWall RT @RealClearScott Breaking: Obama campaign is going up with TV ads in…Minnesota.

My leg is tingling.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Our big media markets in Duluth and the Twin Cities have plenty of range into western Wisconsin, though, and I’d bet that Team Romney’s ad money will be aimed at getting their message out in that area.

Ads run in Duluth might also be seen by voters in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 2:10 PM

http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2012/10/26/video-biden-accuses-romney-500-trillion-tax-cut

Biden Accuses Romney-Ryan Of $500 TRILLION TAX CUT!

Math , hard it is.

the_nile on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

If they can make it somewhat close in the Blue States like Minn, then the election can look like a clear mandate…

phreshone on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

It ain’t so private when it’s leaked to CNN.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

They don’t want to go on the record.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

CRUSH THEM.

greggriffith on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Isn’t this the bad omen democrats wished on the RNC? And salivated over?

Obama fundraiser in Miami shut down after power knocked out by Hurricane Sandy

Speakup on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Minnesota? What about PA?

anotherJoe on October 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

If it’s tied in MN, PA will be a lock more than likely. The Obama campaign is honestly just trying to keep up, let alone being in the lead.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

320 or bust!

Lost in Jersey on October 26, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Obama up by 2 in Ohio in a D+9 poll. Its over. Ohio is RED.

El_Terrible on October 26, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Agree. OH will go Romney with a larger margin than Bush won it.
Of course, that won’t stop polls with D+9 sampling just to show a minimal Obama lead. Next week, the sample will be D+12 or more.

There is tons of evidence that OH will be much redder than 2012. Here’s a nugget from the Canton, OH newspaper:

“Just talking to people, I’m just not feeling it,” said Stark Democratic Vice Chairman Deametrious St. John, the Ohio Democratic Party’s former director of African-American outreach.

“In 2008, everybody cared. Everybody was interested. It was exciting. Now, people aren’t excited,” said St. John, adding that many black residents are unemployed or have had their pay cut. “They think, ‘It don’t affect me, so why should I vote?’ ”

Romney will win OH, and it won’t be particularly close either.

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 2:13 PM

CRUSH THEM.

greggriffith on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

and hear the lamentations of their women. Oh wait… never mind.

faraway on October 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

ARG has Obama up 2 in OH, 49-47. Romney up 21 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). D+9 is just not going to happen.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Isn’t this the bad omen democrats wished on the RNC? And salivated over?

Obama fundraiser in Miami shut down after power knocked out by Hurricane Sandy

Speakup on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I think the Almighty just did Obama a favor. He ain’t winning Florida so he may as well hop on his plane and go to a more realistic swing state.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Another tailor-made thread for gumby to ruin in 5…4…3…

Liam on October 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM

It is terrible to tease. What poll is that?

earlgrey133 on October 26, 2012 at 2:08 PM

ARG for OH
600 LV
Barry 49 Romney 47 MOE +/-4
Party ID
D 43 R 34 Indie 23 D+9 (no kidding)
Among Indies
Barry 36 Romney 57 Romney by 21

bayview on October 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Math , hard it is.

the_nile on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Biden is a disgrace. Did you see what he said to the father of one the SEALs slain in Benghazi? Beyond the pale inappropriate.

If MN is within a few points, you make a small play for it while also hitting WI. Win-win. I do wonder why we’re not hearing about major buys in MI or PA though.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Minnesota? What about PA?

anotherJoe on October 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

If it’s tied in MN, PA will be a lock more than likely. The Obama campaign is honestly just trying to keep up, let alone being in the lead.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

PA doesn’t have early voting, so Romney may be waiting to make a final push there very late. MN doesn’t either though, but doing this now may be for added affect just before Romney’s visit to WI, or possibly to test the waters to see if a late push really is worth it.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

In fact, it may be looking so good that Team Romney can start spending money in … Minnesota?

I personally think that Romney should be spending money in every state where Obama is below at least a five percent lead. Sure, it’d probably be a waste of money in most cases, but what if it worked?

joekenha on October 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Ed, I agree that the Minnesota ad buy is probably about western Wisconsin, but it’s worth remembering that a Twin Cities media buy is useful throughout the state of Minnesota, since most of the cable companies outstate carry the Twin Cities television stations and the stations in places like Alexandria and Bemidji are mostly translator stations for the Twin Cities stations. You get a lot of bang for your buck with a Twin Cities media buy.

If the race is close at all here, it could help a lot. And Obama hasn’t been on the air here.

Mr. D on October 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Blitzkrieg

SparkPlug on October 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Has Gumby been around today or will we be seeing timely poll updates from him in the Green Room?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Look up the miracle of 1980. Will make great reading over the week-end.

dhugh on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

While you, your family members or your friends have been unemployed, this is how Obama has been living on our money:

President Obama has spent far more lavishly on White House state dinners than previous chief executives, including nearly $1 million on a 2010 dinner for Mexico’s president, according to documents obtained by The Washington Examiner. . . .

Gary Walters, who ran presidential household operations for 21 years during Democratic and Republican administrations, before retiring in 2007, told The Examiner the costs reflected in the documents were “excessive. They are high.”

The chief usher of the White House from the Reagan to George W. Bush presidencies, Walters consulted a former White House colleague and said neither of them could recall entertainment costs anywhere near those revealed in the documents provided to The Examiner.

“The highest [cost] event we could remember was $190,000 to $200,000 range, and that was for a very large dinner outside that was probably somewhere in the vicinity of 500 people with two different tents,” Walters said, noting that the event was held under President Clinton.

INC on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

PA doesn’t have early voting, so Romney may be waiting to make a final push there very late. MN doesn’t either though, but doing this now may be for added affect just before Romney’s visit to WI, or possibly to test the waters to see if a late push really is worth it.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Good point on PA…I had forgotten the early voting angle. A late push does make more sense there.

I wonder about MI…Romney’s team seemed to feel that was more likely than PA. Is there early voting there?

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

ARG has Obama up 2 in OH, 49-47. Romney up 21 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). D+9 is just not going to happen.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Nate Silver will give this a weight of 5.0.

milcus on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

ARG has Obama up 2 in OH, 49-47. Romney up 21 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). D+9 is just not going to happen.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Ohio is showing almost exactly the indy share of high teens/ low 20s for Romney.

If this holds, Romney will beat Obama by more than Obama beat McCain.

Chuck Schick on October 26, 2012 at 2:20 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Wow. Will the VA/CO rumors will come true next? RT @TheRickWilson Told ya: Obama pulling field operations from Florida. http://bit.ly/WOngB5

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

ABC/WaPo tracking tightens to Romney up 1, 49-48. But his lead among indys went up to 20. Yes, 20 point lead with indys.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

@ms1818 I think D+3 is the ceiling for democrats. Probably closer to even… D+1 maybe?

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen swing state poll has Romney up 4 again, 50-46. Romney up 11 w/ indys.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gravis marketing NC poll has Romney up 8, 53-45. Romney up 28 among indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04)

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gravis Iowa poll has Obama +4, 50-46. Romney up by 12 w/ indys. Sample is D+6 (was D+1 in 08, R+4 in 2010). If R takes indys by 12 he wins.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gravis NV poll has Obama up 1, 50-49. Romney up 35 w/ indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+8 in 08, D+2 in 2010).

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

This man speaks truth. –> RT @PatrickRuffini Romney +20 among indies is what a president who has ceded the middle ground looks like.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Minnesota? What about PA?

anotherJoe on October 26, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I can actually understand the strategy (although I disagree; Mitt should be in PA full force). PA is exceptionally expensive to advertise in, as the Philly market services in large part So NJ and No DE, neither of which are close to being competitive. MN may be a bit farther leap, but at least the ad dollars you spend also go into W WI.

Even so… You’ve got a friend in PA, Mitt Romney!

JohnGalt23 on October 26, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Saw a Romney Ryan yard sign in front of an organic market in Delaware today. My thought is either it’s a portent of a coming apocalypse or Romney will win.

talkingpoints on October 26, 2012 at 2:24 PM

INC on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Barry XVI and Moochelle Antoinette.

bayview on October 26, 2012 at 2:24 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I have a real bag of popcorn in my hands. I’m waiting for Gumby. I have another bag ready to pop. I also have a whoopie cushion, and an old bicycle horn for sound effects. I love old vaudeville acts – it should be entertaining.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:27 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

They are losing big and they know it. They are just trying to get in as many jabs as possible.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 26, 2012 at 2:28 PM

How long until the next “Bill and Hillary screwed us” excuses are published? I’m hoping Obama will go after Uncle Joe too.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Thanks for the roundup. Numbers like those make me a little giddy.

Lost in Jersey on October 26, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Polls doing their best to depress GOP turnout in Ohio. It’s the Marxist only chance.

bgibbs1000 on October 26, 2012 at 2:30 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

SMALLer and smaller and….

AubieJon on October 26, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Thanks for the roundup. Numbers like those make me a little giddy.

Lost in Jersey on October 26, 2012 at 2:29 PM

You’re welcome. Keep in mind that Obama won the Indy vote by 8.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:30 PM

So according to Romney’s campaign they think MN might be tied. Do I dare hope for a rally?

gophergirl on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

They’re going after the youth vote. And by “youth”, I mean grade schoolers.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Good point on PA…I had forgotten the early voting angle. A late push does make more sense there.

I wonder about MI…Romney’s team seemed to feel that was more likely than PA. Is there early voting there?

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

No early voting in Michigan either. Maybe PA and MN is a head-fake, getting Barky to commit his resources and then the Romney bus heads up there in November.

Or maybe they’re playing for the whole Midwest. If Gallup and Rasmussen are right about this election being R+3 turnout then the whole thing is going to Romney. And Oregon and 3/4s of Maine.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 PM

For Gumby lovers everywhere! Check this out.

DrStock on October 26, 2012 at 2:32 PM

They’re going after the youth vote. And by “youth”, I mean grade schoolers.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 PM

“First-timers”?

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Good news. Candy Crowley getting readt to sing.

50sGuy on October 26, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Barry XVI and Moochelle Antoinette.

bayview on October 26, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I could not believe those numbers.

INC on October 26, 2012 at 2:34 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

This is just pathetic. Obama, through one of his surrogates, could not go to his usual move and unseal records to disqualify an opponent, so now he is resorting to stuff like this. Pathetic.

milcus on October 26, 2012 at 2:34 PM

INC on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I posted that link in the 3rdQuarter GDP thread.

Further down in the article there is mention of a guy named Walsh who is partners with an outside events coordinator who was hired for some of these lavish parties. Walsh is employed by the Obama administration in the State Department’s Office of Protocol.

Of course, his name is never on any of the contracts.

Corrupt from start to finish is this administration.

Jvette on October 26, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Gallup has Romney up by 5% again in likely voters.
plus Obama’s job approval down by a net 6%

breffnian on October 26, 2012 at 2:36 PM

For Gumby lovers everywhere! Check this out.

DrStock on October 26, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Thanks Doc….funny. Even Gumby would probably chuckle.

Drudge has a link to the NBA commish saying Obama isn’t that good at Basketball either…..

Good times….

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:36 PM

OT

Hey! Where’s the column about the October Bomb coming from Fox News about Benghazi?

pos4thst on October 26, 2012 at 2:37 PM

You wonder if Obama is trying to lose…”Bullsheeiter”, “First-timer”, “Dunce”.

Seems to me if you are trying to get Women and Independents, this is the wrong way to go.

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:38 PM

ED,

Who uses a raw text format in 2012 to publish results, anyway?


from a programmer here – text is way easier to parse and extract info from than formatted output (like Excel spreadsheets)….you just need to hire yourselves a good old-school programmer is all…..

BTW, nice job on Morning Joe today…i would have liked to see you go toe-to-toe with Eugene Robinson a bit more, but Mika and Joe tend to suck all the air (HotAir or otherwise) out of the room…

powerpickle on October 26, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Good info! Are you purposely trying to piss of the Gumby?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Meanwhile, Obama’s “single, best decision” is out running around accusing Romney of wanting to give 175,000 families a $500 TRILLION tax cut.

**eyeroll**

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Good info! Are you purposely trying to piss of the Gumby?

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:40 PM

If Gumby was Chris Matthews, I would be his Poison Ivy, not his leg tingle.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:42 PM

.you just need to hire yourselves a good old-school programmer is all…..

From your lips to God’s ears…..

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I do wonder why we’re not hearing about major buys in MI or PA though.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

PA is very expensive to advertise in and something like 1/4 to 1/3 of the people seeing adds will be in deep blue states (NY, NJ, and MD), and southeast PA for that matter. Also, if Romne is down in PA by 5 to shift it he would need something like 150-200,000 people changing their minds.

Compare that to MN which is comparable to advertising in western PA alone and the ads bleed into WI and possibly part of MI and IA. As far as voters Romney, if Romney is down 7 he would only need 100,000 voters to shift it red.

As for MI, I’m not sure but it may have to do with it being a much bigger blue state than PA, MN, or WI. Sure Romney’s father was a popular governor way back when but then that’s the state to most benefit from the auto bailout. Romney has western MI in his pocket (it was red even in 2008 and has been doing quite well, the economic issues in MI are entirely in the eastern part), but Detroit is an expensive media market to reach a handful of persuadables in the suburbs and rural areas. Total cost would be equivalent to eastern PA and would need to sway 100,000 voters.

In summary:

PA – extremely expensive and would have to switch 200,000 voters
MI – somewhat expensive, would have to switch 100,000 voters
MN – the cheapest option, would only have to switch 75,000 and helps in WI.

Also don’t forget that WI+MN = PA > MI

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 2:43 PM

I don’t think MN is in play. I think this is all a clever head fake on the part of the Romney campaign to force Obama to waste resources in the state. As Romney has a big cash on hand advantage this is to further stretch Obama’s remaining funds.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 2:45 PM

I do wonder why we’re not hearing about major buys in MI or PA though.

changer1701 on October 26, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I think because both of the states are expensive and they are both LATE voters, which mean they can go on air at the last minute and still have a big impact.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 2:47 PM

The polls have been used for months to suppress Republican enthusiasm and paint Turdboy as unbeatable. Romney is fighting back by spending ad money in hopeless and hapless MN and giving a positive boost to that enthusiasm. The message is clear: If we are competitive in MN, we are golden almost everywhere else. Chin up, folks, no time to quite but you have a right to be optimistic.

swinia sutki on October 26, 2012 at 2:48 PM

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Keeping an incomplete but growing list:

1. Sad mopey fundraising e-mail. (I don’t want to lose.)
2. Romney a bullshi–er to Rolling Stone.
3. Dirty voting=sex campaign ad featuring a tattooed off-putting feminist.
4. Romney portray as a “Dunce” on Obama’s tumblr.

How many more different ways is this campaign going to crack before election day. They’re losing it. Set aside all of the polling, all of the polling analysis, all of the early voter number crunching. This is a losing campaign. It’s that obvious. When sex-related campaign ads turn up outside of Russia, and 4th grade playground name-calling comes into effect, that’s a clear sign of a campaign out of ideas.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Obama fundraiser in Miami shut down after power knocked out by Hurricane Sandy

Speakup on October 26, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Your first fundraiser should be Obama’s.
–Sandy

Barnestormer on October 26, 2012 at 2:52 PM

PROMINENT OBAMA ADVISOR URGES OUTSOURCING TO MEXICO…

http://freebeacon.com/obamas-outsourcer/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Visualize Obama’s concession speech.

Both Democrats and Republicans will agree it’s the best one, EVER!

NoDonkey on October 26, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 2:10 PM
http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2012/10/26/video-biden-accuses-romney-500-trillion-tax-cut

Biden Accuses Romney-Ryan Of $500 TRILLION TAX CUT!
Math , hard it is.

the_nile on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

…does he seem to be getting worse…to anybody?
…it’s almost as if he has a medical problem.

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 2:55 PM

The polls have been used for months to suppress Republican enthusiasm and paint Turdboy as unbeatable.

swinia sutki on October 26, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Yup, but they are loosing that battle. When you have to skew battleground polls to double the Dem Advantage of 2008 just to shown a 1-2 point Obama lead, you know it is a lost cause.

The only thing the Left has left to pretend that their Messiah has a chance is Nate Silver & InTrade. Silver can just make stuff up by selectively ignoring unfavorable polls, and InTrade is a joke:

http://crookedtimber.org/2011/11/05/my-adventures-on-intrade/

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 2:58 PM

50.9% was the messiah’s vote take in 2008 in the height of Obamamania.

The One was SHELLACKED and rebuked in 2010- albeit a mid-term.

The question fr 2012 is – just much percentage of the vote has he lost since 2008. Its easy that its 2-3% loss. probably a given.

A loss of 5-6% (which requires only 3% of a swing vote change) is totally reasonable- regardless of polling.

FlaMurph on October 26, 2012 at 3:01 PM

1. Sad mopey fundraising e-mail. (I don’t want to lose.)
2. Romney a bullshi–er to Rolling Stone.
3. Dirty voting=sex campaign ad featuring a tattooed off-putting feminist.
4. Romney portray as a “Dunce” on Obama’s tumblr.

How many more different ways is this campaign going to crack before election day. They’re losing it. Set aside all of the polling, all of the polling analysis, all of the early voter number crunching. This is a losing campaign. It’s that obvious. When sex-related campaign ads turn up outside of Russia, and 4th grade playground name-calling comes into effect, that’s a clear sign of a campaign out of ideas.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Bayonets
Big Bird
Women in Binders
Romnesia-3rd Stage

And now even Paul Ryan has Romnesia

Biden Diagnoses “Poor” Paul Ryan With “Romnesia”…

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 2:10 PM
http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2012/10/26/video-biden-accuses-romney-500-trillion-tax-cut

Biden Accuses Romney-Ryan Of $500 TRILLION TAX CUT!
Math , hard it is.

the_nile on October 26, 2012 at 2:11 PM

…does he seem to be getting worse…to anybody?
…it’s almost as if he has a medical problem.

KOOLAID2 on October 26, 2012 at 2:55 PM

According to a former aide of his, both him and Obama are financial illiterates. I know, shocking news. That can be seen with Biden especially because he constantly forgets how many zeroes are behind numbers. In the VP debate he referred to Ryan’s “$5 trillion tax cut” as, IIRC, $500,000, $5 billion, $500 billion, and $5 trillion. Pretty much every time he mentioned it he used a different number, which is a tell tale sign of a financial illiterate (though not that it was needed in this case).

I don’t think MN is in play. I think this is all a clever head fake on the part of the Romney campaign to force Obama to waste resources in the state. As Romney has a big cash on hand advantage this is to further stretch Obama’s remaining funds.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 2:45 PM

It’s working, but yeah this is what campaigns that are pulling ahead do late. They find states that are in striking distance that they don’t expect to win and spend some of their cash surplus in them. Obama did this with GA, MT, and some others in 2008. Maybe you flip them, but even if it doesn’t it helps your popular vote total, the candidates down ticket, and the future prospects of you party in that state.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Biden : What should I be talking about ?

Axelrod : Anything but Libya. Anything !

Biden : Got it. I’ll get their attention.

Jabberwock on October 26, 2012 at 3:04 PM

We are in the midst of the Preference Cascade

Texas Fluke on October 26, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Romney is a “Dunce”.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Next week, Obama’s gonna be stumping with “Romney’s mama’s so fat…”

You heard it here first.

RepubChica on October 26, 2012 at 3:06 PM

IBD/Tipp daily has O+2 again today, 47-45. Romney leads indys by 10. Sample is D+7 (same turnout as 2008).

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 3:06 PM

320 or bust!

Lost in Jersey on October 26, 2012 at 2:13 PM

I was a bit skeptical of the CO Univ computer model back in August, but their 330 for Romney is beginning to look real.

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Newest Rasmussen Florida poll shows Romney up 50%-48% (down from a 5 point lead last week. He’s also losing independents by 6 which is weird. Also Civtas, a Republican pollster, only shows Romney in the lead by 1 (49-48) but Gravis shows Romney up 8 (53-45). What the hey is going on with these polls.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:10 PM

.you just need to hire yourselves a good old-school programmer is all…..

From your lips to God’s ears…..

oldroy on October 26, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I’d be happy to do this for free.

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Corrupt from start to finish is this administration.

Jvette on October 26, 2012 at 2:34 PM

I haven’t looked at that thread so I missed your link. I did notice that partnership, and I agree. Corruption, power and money is what it’s been all about.

INC on October 26, 2012 at 3:11 PM

From the GREEN ROOM………….

GAME OVER.

The Meat Loaf Endorsement……

“Hope” -ing Obummer is gone like a BAT OUT OF HELL – NOV 7th

FlaMurph on October 26, 2012 at 3:11 PM

No early voting in Michigan either. Maybe PA and MN is a head-fake, getting Barky to commit his resources and then the Romney bus heads up there in November.

Or maybe they’re playing for the whole Midwest. If Gallup and Rasmussen are right about this election being R+3 turnout then the whole thing is going to Romney. And Oregon and 3/4s of Maine.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Yeah, I read somewhere today that no one really knows what’s going to happen in Michigan and PA, with no early voting to look at. Could be status quo, could be a blow out. Clearly, Romney is going to be running ads in both places as we get closer to election day.

Visualize Obama’s concession speech.

Both Democrats and Republicans will agree it’s the best one, EVER!

NoDonkey on October 26, 2012 at 2:55 PM

I know exactly what he’s going to say. He’ll say he just called Gov. Romney to congratulate him, and then he’ll say something along the lines of “Now, I want my supporters to stay calm…” which is Zero-speak for “burn the mother down.” He’ll want his riots, and he’ll do whatever he can to get them. Despots are like that.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Ras went to a D+6 sample today.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 3:18 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

.
Sure Hopey

Thats why Super Mitt never succeeded in business….

and floundered with a3.97GPA with dual Harvard advanced degrees…..

Oh BTW – WHERE ARE YOUR TRANSCRIPTS AGAIN?, Mr. 7th GRADE MATH WIZ??

FlaMurph on October 26, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Ras went to a D+6 sample today.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Why? Ras said himself he expects at best a D+3 or 4 turnout on Election Day.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple poll has a tie in VA at 47%. Romney leads indys by 3. Sample is D+5 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04)

27m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple Poll has Obama up 1 in CO, 47-46. Tied w/ indys. Sample is D+1 (was R+1 in 2008)

28m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple Poll has Obama up 2 in Ohio, 46-44. Romney leads indys by 2. Sample is D+7 (D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010)

Not good news here. The Eeyore in me is starting to come out.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Visualize Obama’s concession speech.

Both Democrats and Republicans will agree it’s the best one, EVER!

NoDonkey on October 26, 2012 at 2:55 PM

I know exactly what he’s going to say. He’ll say he just called Gov. Romney to congratulate him, and then he’ll say something along the lines of “Now, I want my supporters to stay calm…” which is Zero-speak for “burn the mother down.” He’ll want his riots, and he’ll do whatever he can to get them. Despots are like that.

Rational Thought on October 26, 2012 at 3:12 PM

I can’t actually visualize Obama giving a concession speech. At all.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

the damn is about break!

carson53 on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

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