New FL poll shows Romney up 5, 51/46

posted at 2:01 pm on October 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’m actually a little torn on whether to rely much on the new Sunshine State News poll coming out of Florida today.  They have a decent track record in their own state, and as they report, their poll matches up with most other polling in Florida over the last week or two.  However, their cross-tab report was published in a text format, which makes it all but unusable, so it’s difficult to analyze the methodology or demographics outside of their own published report.  Who uses a raw text format in 2012 to publish results, anyway?

Still, it’s Friday, and we want to hear all the good news we can going into the weekend:

Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama.

Only 12 percent said the recent debates had any sway on their opinion, with 40 percent of those individuals saying they switched from Obama to Romney and just 22 percent going the other way. ..

The results run similar to many other recent polls for Florida conducted by:

  • Rasmussen, 52 percent to 46 percent for Romney;
  • CNN, 49 percent to 48 percent for Romney;
  • PPP, 48 percent to 47 percent for Romney;
  • Gravis Marketing, 50 percent to 49 percent.
  • Newsmax poll put the contest at 48 percent to 42 percent for Obama.

The RCP average for Florida has Romney up 2.1%, but that includes this poll.  In surveys conducted since October 17th, only Survey USA has Obama up at all — and only by one, 47/46, a hardly comforting number for an incumbent President with less than two weeks to go before the election.

SSN reports that Republicans have around a 50,000-ballot lead in early voting, which is pretty good news for the GOP, as Democrats usually do better on early voting and the GOP does better on Election Day.  They also show Romney winning men by a whopping 15 points, far outstripping Obama’s 5-point lead among women.  No word on how independents are breaking, but assuming that this poll is at all reliable, it’s looking pretty good for Romney in Florida.

In fact, it may be looking so good that Team Romney can start spending money in … Minnesota?

Mitt Romney will be running television ads in Minnesota over the weekend, The Associated Press is reporting.

The investment is described as a small buy that Democrats suggest is simply intended to generate media coverage and force President Barack Obama’s campaign to invest there as well,” the AP said.

Minnesota appears to be safely in Obama’s column at this point. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, he leads there by more than 7 percentage points, although polling is sparse because few believe it to be up for grabs.

Don’t read too much into this, at least not for Minnesota.  We’re no closer to going red than we were in 2004, when John Kerry beat George Bush by almost 4 points.  Our big media markets in Duluth and the Twin Cities have plenty of range into western Wisconsin, though, and I’d bet that Team Romney’s ad money will be aimed at getting their message out in that area.


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I doubt we can pull off Minnesota, but gay marriage being on the ballot and Obama’s position on the issue is probably not something Barack can ignore. He has to at least play a little defense.

It’s worth noting, Dubya nearly won the state twice, if Romney outperforms Dubya by around 1.5%, he can take the state. That’s not exactly a high hurdle, especially considering Romney is a much better fir for the state than George W. Bush.

I absolutely believe though Wisconsin is in play though and will likely be ours, but Romney has to make the investment.

I don’t want all of our eggs in Ohio’s basket, just too risky and I think the point of saturation has been reached.

BradTank on October 26, 2012 at 3:21 PM

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Ras went to a D+6 for his national poll (which prevented Romney from gaining about 2 points), not for his FL poll though.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:21 PM

INC on October 26, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I’d like to know the lobster bill alone for little Bammie’s White House. Moochie has to have eaten hundreds all by herself.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 3:23 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple poll has a tie in VA at 47%. Romney leads indys by 3. Sample is D+5 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04)

27m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple Poll has Obama up 1 in CO, 47-46. Tied w/ indys. Sample is D+1 (was R+1 in 2008)

28m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Purple Poll has Obama up 2 in Ohio, 46-44. Romney leads indys by 2. Sample is D+7 (D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010)

Not good news here. The Eeyore in me is starting to come out.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

C’mon. Look at those polling samples. Seriously? Ohio with a D+7? And you think VA & CO will poll anywhere close to their ’08 samples? This is a red wave election. Relax.

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Gallup Demographics of Likely Voters

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012

I checked out the link Ed provided above, and the headline is very misleading “2012 Electorate like 2008 electorate”. While Gallup’s anticipated electorate in 2012 is similarly divided by age and by race as that of 2008, the partisan composition has shifted dramatically.

In 2008, Gallup estimated the electorate as 39 D / 29 R / 31 I, or 54 D / 42 R with Leaners.

Now, Gallup estimates the electorate as 35 D / 36 R / 29 I, or 46 D / 49 R with Leaners.

Obama won the popular vote by 7% in 2008 with a D+10 electorate, or D+12 with Leaners.

If this year’s electorate is tilted slightly Republican (R+1 or R+3 with Leaners), and Romney is winning Indies by 5-15 points in most polls, Romney should probably win the popular vote by 4-6 points.

Is it possible that even Rasmussen, who is now showing ties in Ohio and Wisconsin, is over-weighting Democrats or under-weighting Republicans, and Romney will win both states? If that happens, and Romney hangs on to FL and VA, Romney will be President.

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Gallup:
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008
Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same
by Jeffrey M. JonesPRINCETON, NJ — The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama’s electoral coalition, such as racial minorities, women, young adults, and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008.

There’s a lot here, and I can’t cut and paste the data, but the takeaway is:

2004 2008 2012
Democrat 37 39 35
Independent 24 31 29
Republican 39 29 36
Democrat/Lean Dem 48 54 46
Republican/Lean Rep 48 42 49

Let’s see. Dems down 4, Indy’s down 2, Repubs up 7.
Lean Dems down 8, lean Reps 7.
How is that remotely “Looks like 2008″??

And I realize 2010 was an outlier and not a Presidential election,
but not even a mention?

Tenwheeler on October 26, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Still no word from Gumby?

Man, I’m getting worried/

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Z-Man, you beat me, but I came to the same conclusion.

Tenwheeler on October 26, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Not good news here. The Eeyore in me is starting to come out.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

I’ve been reading some posts over on the Bengazi page.
More than your Eeyore is showing…

Tenwheeler on October 26, 2012 at 3:27 PM

If Romney were to win Minnesota, he would be the first Republican to win any State wide race since Pawlenty won the Governors race 6 years ago and the first Republican Presidential candidate to do it since Nixon in 1972.

jpmn on October 26, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 26, 2012 at 3:23 PM

I’m a Braves and a Bills fan. What do you expect? Excruciating disappointment is practically in my DNA.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Is it possible that even Rasmussen, who is now showing ties in Ohio and Wisconsin, is over-weighting Democrats or under-weighting Republicans, and Romney will win both states? If that happens, and Romney hangs on to FL and VA, Romney will be President.

Steve Z on October 26, 2012 at 3:24 PM

thats exactly whats been goiong on the last 10-14 days. mostly D+3/D+2s (wonder wy no more D+11s?). we’re looking at R+1-R+3 then all the bets are off. we really are looking at electoral landslide. the battles will be PA, MI, OR, NM. the southern 3 go romney by 6. WI/IA/NH/OH/CO all go romney by 2-3. obama barely breaks 180 EVs. fireworks go off before 11pm.

t8stlikchkn on October 26, 2012 at 3:30 PM

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Yep. The “Squirrel!” incidents are a bit of a separate thing though. That’s just the strategy of a campaign with no record, and has been for months. These past few days though show a campaign at a new low. A Chicago office full of men completely crapping their pants and – for lack of better ideas – just flinging that crap at the public.

As far as that goes “Romnesia” is definitely one for the list. Can’t believe I forgot it. Shades of the “Obamneycare” line just before T-Paw farted out in Iowa and gave up his bid, and one of the first signs Obama was running a desperate campaign. I’m putting it right at the top.

1. “Romnesia”
2. Sad mopey fundraising e-mail. (I don’t want to lose.)
3. Romney a bullshi–er to Rolling Stone.
4. Dirty voting=sex campaign ad featuring a tattooed off-putting feminist.
5. Romney portrayed as a “Dunce” on Obama’s tumblr.

Gingotts on October 26, 2012 at 3:32 PM

The reason you can’t compare this election with 2004, is because the media spent Bush’s 1st term doing everything in their power to tear him down, save for a few short months at the beginning of both the Afghan and Iraqi Wars, when the likes of Tony Blair were agreeing with him, as well as some prominent Democrats.

So the polls took into account every bit of bad news and dirt that the media put on Page 1 of every major newspaper and the lead story of every major network news show, in order to make Bush look bad.

In 2012, we have the exact opposite taking place. We have a POTUS that
has been coddled and protected by the media, like no other POTUS before him.

So for Romney to be in the position that he’s in right now in the polls, with leads in Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, ties, or near ties, in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada, and Obama narrowly leading in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, I think all this talk that the election is going to hinge on a few counties on Ohio is hogwash.

ardenenoch on October 26, 2012 at 3:33 PM

So for Romney to be in the position that he’s in right now in the polls, with leads in Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, ties, or near ties, in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada, and Obama narrowly leading in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, I think all this talk that the election is going to hinge on a few counties on Ohio is hogwash.

ardenenoch on October 26, 2012 at 3:33 PM

subtract the media picks that have been set, and obama is sub-carter, high 30s. which is where the rare black swan dem potus naturally end up (in the last 50 years we only elect dem potus in a black swan event year). other than the clinton abberation, which had the GOP congress to shield him.

t8stlikchkn on October 26, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Tenwheeler on October 26, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Look, as I said before, no ground troops was a good decision based on intelligence and logistical issues. Air strikes, drone strikes, missile strikes from naval ships should have occurred. Most people have absolutely no idea how military operations work. That said, that’s the only decision I’ll actually defend. The whole clusterfark happened because of the egregious lack of security, not the response. Plus, the whole coverup is borderline criminal.

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:43 PM

King Obama has yet again reached a new low.

Romney is a Dunce.

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 2:26 PM

This sounds like Jimmy Carter in ’80 when he tried to tie Reagan to John Wilkes Booth because “they were both actors!!!”

Benedict Nelson on October 26, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Just talked to my coworker who is heavily involved in MN State Politics.

She said they are positively giddy over the internals – it’s within 1 or basically a tie.

gophergirl on October 26, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama increases to a 2.15:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1

The odds of an Obama victory increased for the third day in a row. The electoral college tells the story. Obama has two pathways to a second term:

Path #1: Obama wins Ohio
Path #2: Obama wins Wis, Iowa, Nev, Colorado, & NH

Ohio outlook ticked up for Obama overnight. For path #2, the only state that Obama was the underdog (Colorado) tightened up from a Romney edge to a toss-up today. Predictive markets missed the electoral college vote by 1 in 2008, and they were perfect in 2000.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 3:59 PM

President Dunce strikes again. The King can’t even operate a voting machine.

Video: Obama Befuddled By Ordinary Voting Machine…

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Joe Pounder ‏@PounderFile

CNN: Top Obama advisers “privately say it does look more likely that Romney will eke out a Virginia win” http://is.gd/xTQ3a9

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:03 PM

In Obama speak, “eke out a Virginia win” means win by 6 points.

eyedoc on October 26, 2012 at 4:07 PM

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Is this the new Gumby? If not your schtick has already been done, and done better.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Why? Ras said himself he expects at best a D+3 or 4 turnout on Election Day.

Doughboy on October 26, 2012 at 3:20 PM

I don’t know. Josh Jordan at NumbersMuncher and some other were speculating that he wanted to keep the national at R +3.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

@ConArtCritic Rasmussen today is D+6. Unless he states more definitively otherwise. Check my timeline – he upped it today.

Of interest…

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gallup party ID study has got to put more fear into Team Obama than Romney’s leads in national polls. R+1 when they had D+10 in 08 (was D+7)

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Tenwheeler on October 26, 2012 at 3:25 PM

The demographics look like 2008, i.e., gender, education, etc, but the D/R/I more resembles 2004.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:21 PM

I was referring to his national poll.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Still no word from Gumby?

Man, I’m getting worried/

JPeterman on October 26, 2012 at 3:26 PM

He’s probably rehearsing his new pole/stripping routine, I heard he’s doing a coreographed duet with Lena :)…either that or his mom cut his access to internet coz he’s lagging behind in school…

jimver on October 26, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Is this the new Gumby? If not your schtick has already been done, and done better.

jarodea on October 26, 2012 at 4:12 PM

OK..you want more analysis. No problem. I appreciate the constructive criticism. One correction…predictive markets were prefect in 2004 NOT 2000 as I stated above. Now, in order of likelihood based upon current odds:

Nevada (most likely for President Obama)
Wisconsin
Ohio
Iowa
New Hampshire

Obama favored above/Romney favored below

Colorado
Virginia
Florida (most likely for Candidate Romney)

If Romney climbs up the ladder and grabs NH and Iowa, he is still short in electoral votes and cannot win unless he wins Ohio. It’s all about Ohio.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Gravis marketing NC poll has Romney up 8, 53-45. Romney up 28 among indys. Sample is D+9 (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04)
NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 2:22 PM

.
So , did I miss the point where someone pointed out RCP has taken North Carolina out of Romney’s column and moved it back to a toss up?

Or did RCP get a call about a possible Department of Justice investigation?

;->

PolAgnostic on October 26, 2012 at 4:29 PM

In Tampa Bay, Romney signs outnumber Obama signs at least 10 or 12 to one… Some neighborhoods are positively littered with Romney signs. There are also “Fire Obama” signs around, too…

PointnClick on October 26, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Boot…
Neck….
Squish
..

REPEAT.

hillsoftx on October 26, 2012 at 4:31 PM

So , did I miss the point where someone pointed out RCP has taken North Carolina out of Romney’s column and moved it back to a toss up?

Not sure about rest of state cause I am not local, but have been in Wilmington for 8 days—ONE Obama sign.

hillsoftx on October 26, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Bravesbill on October 26, 2012 at 3:21 PM

I was referring to his national poll.

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Are there still undecided in Ohio? Andvwhat percentage would they be as of now?

jimver on October 26, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Nevada (most likely for President Obama)

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Hey, moron. You obviously don’t live and believe that same communist news of America crap. That said I believe all of you communist scum live in your fantasy world far, far away and have no basis in reality in every day life…

ALL 3 GOP candidates for Congress here in Clark County are doing WELL. BEYOND WELL, actually. No way that people voting for them will somehow then check off Hussein’s box in the process. Unless its a camera cell box he is now more than entitled to judging by latest news from Benghazi.

Keep on dreaming.

Judging by latest numbers, FL, VA and now OH are all red this year. PA is on the table and likely to go red when even Rendell now admits that, I am sure he knows way better than your little brain can grasp. That leaves nothing on the table for Hussein, and I actually think that WI will also go red, will be a nice touch to finish this nightmare for most of us.

47%

How prophetic…

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

The odds of an Obama victory increased for the third day in a row.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Wow, Play-D’OH! has a new friend.

What has O’bamna done this week to merit him getting such a gain?

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Gallup:
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same
by Jeffrey M. JonesPRINCETON, NJ — The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama’s electoral coalition, such as racial minorities, women, young adults, and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008.

In other words, if the composition of the electorate doesn’t change, the turnout doesn’t change. If the composition of a deck of cards doesn’t change, you’ll be dealt the same poker hand every time.

RedWinged Blackbird on October 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Minnesota ad buys:
1. A war of attrition – Romney has $100 million more than Obama and can bleed him dry in a million different directions; and
2. Wisconsin, UP of Michigan, and Iowa (perhaps)

Roxeanne de Luca on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

What has O’bamna done this week to merit him getting such a gain?

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Simple…his lead in Ohio has not gone down. It’s all about Electoral College math. Obama is running out the clock. If Mitt does not see the numbers improve in Ohio, it’s all over.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Simple…his lead in Ohio has not gone down. It’s all about Electoral College math. Obama is running out the clock. If Mitt does not see the numbers improve in Ohio, it’s all over.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Thanks for not answering my question.

Wow, lots of new Axelrod Sleep Cells popping up on this thread!

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Simple…his lead in Ohio has not gone down. It’s all about Electoral College math. Obama is running out the clock. If Mitt does not see the numbers improve in Ohio, it’s all over.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Ohio polls from 2004 for the 10/17 to 10/25 window currently used to calculate the RCP average (from oldest to latest):

Kerry +1, Kerry +4, Bush +2, Bush +4, Kerry +6, Kerry +2, Kerry +3, Tie, Bush +1. Two of the three Bush leads were from Republican-affiliated polling company Strategic Vision, the other was Rasmussen. The Kerry leads were in the LA Times, Gallup, Survey USA, ARG and Scripps.

You’re 100% confident because…….

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Ohio polls from 2004 for the 10/17 to 10/25 window currently used to calculate the RCP average (from oldest to latest):

Kerry +1, Kerry +4, Bush +2, Bush +4, Kerry +6, Kerry +2, Kerry +3, Tie, Bush +1. Two of the three Bush leads were from Republican-affiliated polling company Strategic Vision, the other was Rasmussen. The Kerry leads were in the LA Times, Gallup, Survey USA, ARG and Scripps.

You’re 100% confident because…….

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 5:35 PM

The odds of an Obama victory are not wholly based on polls. Polls are only one data point among many others. Polls are not accurate as you have helped provide evidence. The major problem in polling is that you currently are only counting the opinions of people who have land lines and answer calls from strangers in the night. Polls today are worse than they were 4 years ago. 100% of the predictive markets have Obama as a heavy favorite. In 2008, by the night before, Obama was a massive 10:1 favorite. He is now only a 2.15:1 favorite.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 6:09 PM

What has O’bamna done this week to merit him getting such a gain?

Del Dolemonte on October 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Bathhouse visit, he was back in Chicago to vote.

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Strange – odds that go up normally mean that your chance of winning is going down?

Anyway – Ohio is gone for Obama – oh it will still be ground central because it is – but indies and gender are gone for Obama, early voting is in Romney’s favor compared against 2008, registraton numbers are in favor of Romney compared to Obama, catholics – especially white catholics are gone for Obama.

In addition – most pollers with maybe the exception of Ras have their LV screens set much to low -which favors dems – and all of them are using flawed exit polling for early voters which is in conflict with what the S of S is actually reporting.

Still have to keep it going – but I would say Ohio is gone.

The only state I’m really worried about – Nevada, Obama has gotten to 50 in some polling and while ROmney is closing Obama hasn’t lost as much of his early voting advantage there as he has almost everywhere else. The SEIU minions are strong. For us it won’t matter – by the time Nevada reports it will be over.

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I am trying to keep myself a little grounded -I cannot see indies for Romney over +15. So these are also just bad polling I think. Heck +15 indies is a win for Romney and it won’t be close. And anyone polling in a real swing state worse than D+2 is just lying.

Zomcon JEM on October 26, 2012 at 6:27 PM

The odds of an Obama victory are not wholly based on polls. Polls are only one data point among many others. Polls are not accurate as you have helped provide evidence. The major problem in polling is that you currently are only counting the opinions of people who have land lines and answer calls from strangers in the night. Polls today are worse than they were 4 years ago. 100% of the predictive markets have Obama as a heavy favorite. In 2008, by the night before, Obama was a massive 10:1 favorite. He is now only a 2.15:1 favorite.

ZippyZ on October 26, 2012 at 6:09 PM

You go from citing polling data to claiming it’s not all about polls. That’s quite the turnaround. I hope you enjoy becoming a millionaire off the Obama Intrade stock while it’s still only around 60. Lots of free money out there if it’s a sure bet.

alchemist19 on October 26, 2012 at 6:58 PM


New FL poll shows Romney up 5, 51/46

The Benghazi effect, and it’ll only get worse for Obama as more damning reports leak out. Obama can kiss Virginia goodbye as well, another state that has a strong military presence.

And there are tens of millions of veterans that ARE keeping abreast of Benghazi, in spite of the MSM downplaying it.

Godzilla on October 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM

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