Virginia: Romney 50, Obama 48; Update: New Fox News poll also shows Romney by two

posted at 4:43 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

Fortunately, Virginia’s tilting the right way — barely. Romney’s led in seven of the nine polls taken there since the first debate, including each of the last five. If he comes through here and in Florida, where he’s led in 12 of the last 14 polls, then he’s got 248 EVs in the bank (by RCP’s estimate) with Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire all on the radar. The latest from Rasmussen:

Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April…

Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters.

Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

Ras also has a new poll of Pennsylvania today: Obama by five, with over 50 percent of the vote. Between that and Jon Ralston’s arguments for why O’s early-voting advantage in Nevada will be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, it looks for the moment like Iowa is the most plausible candidate among the supposed “Obama states” to surprise everyone on election night. Of the last five polls taken there, Obama leads in two, Romney leads in one, and two more are tied. And Romney’s giving the state plenty of attention: Remember, his big economic speech tomorrow will be delivered in Ames. If New Hampshire falls through, Iowa could replace it. Imagine The One winning squeakers in NH and Ohio but losing the presidency anyway as Iowa and Wisconsin come through for Romney. Awesome.

Just one little hitch in all of this via Brendan Loy: What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

I spoke this morning with my father, a retired elections bureaucrat in Connecticut, and he made the excellent point that the week before the election is a very busy for folks like him in his old job, and for registrars of voters, town clerks and the like. They’re testing voting machines, printing ballots or other critical papers, and doing all sorts of other mundane tasks that are critical to assuring a smooth Election Day. If the impact of the storm wipes out all or part of that critical “prep week,” then even if things are relatively “back to normal” by Election Day (by no means a given; see below), there would likely be an invisible storm impact in the form of additional chaos, “irregularities” and all manner of disruptions at the polls — failed voting machines, missing ballots, etc. — simply because the officials had to cut short their preparation, so more mistakes will inevitably happen…

Sandy is by no means equivalent to Katrina, but it could certainly lead to evacuation orders this weekend for coastal and flood-prone areas in its target zone, and it’s conceivable that those evacuation orders might not be lifted for some time after the storm if power outages, downed trees and power lines, inland flooding, etc. create a witch’s brew of unsafe conditions in the affected areas. If those areas happen to be located in a swing state, or a state with a major Senate race, it is easy to imagine decisions about when to lift evacuation orders becoming intensely politicized.

A nightmare scenario for Democrats would be an evacuation of portions of Philadelphia, which would not only endanger Bob Casey, but would take a state that Obama seems likely to win unless he’s losing swing states across the board (and thus the PA outcome doesn’t really matter), and turn it into a potentially decisive tipping-point state that could hand Romney the presidency even if he loses Ohio and most of the other swing states.

Loy also wonders what’ll happen if the power is still down in various polling places along the eastern seaboard on election day. One word, my friends: Thunderdome. Actually, two more words: Traffic goldmine. I won’t benefit since, as a New Yorker, I’ll apparently be underwater by then, but it’s nice to know that Ed, MKH, and Erika will have weeks of content from the unholy legal and political clusterfark in the aftermath.

Via the Daily Caller, here’s Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats who are considering not voting this year.

Update: Maybe Ralston spoke too soon about Nevada.

Update: Corroborating evidence: Fox also has Romney by two in Virginia, a nine-point swing since last month. Has any candidate ever helped himself as much at a debate as Romney did in that first one?


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The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio. If there was any kind of break for Romney there, and he took the lead in the polls, you would see incredible confidence among Conservatives, which would lead to more volunteers and boots on the ground. It would also be a real kick in the a** to the Dems and would thoroughly dis-spirit them.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Yep… the Rs are totally dispirited. That is why Romney raised $111 million dollars in about two weeks and has Obama sized crowds at his rallies.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Perhaps I should make a modification to my prior post. This is Texas. We don’t sit around and whine – we get back up, dust ourselves off and get back to work after a major storm. I’m not sure that the same would be true of northeastern metropolitan areas.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Flooding, roads blocked by trees, power outages can take a LONG time to be straightened out, which could deter the voters, or render machines inoperable… etc.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

That’s what I was going to say.

Depending on where it hits and how hard, cleanup could be massive. When we lived in NH a heavy rainstorm would flood areas in MA. Power outages happen at the drop of a hat. If there is heavy flooding and trees down, it will take a while to recover.

INC on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Thanks for the clarification, though I knew what you meant. Normally, I would ignore him, I was just surprised that any rational person could have interpreted my comment the way he did. But then, I’ve seen no evidence that Gumby fits into that category.

Plus, it was my first “first post” post. Couldn’t let Gumby go sullying it like that. ;)

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Ok, this storm (Sandy) is scheduled to hit (or not) this coming week Oct 30th-31st, the election is Nov 6th, tell me why all the teeth knashing over it effecting the election that is a week after?

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Because a worst-case scenario puts a huge portion of the East Coast in crisis-mode for what could be more than a week. Basically, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and portions of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia (with peripheral but potentially significant impact on NY/New England, or the Carolinas, depending on landfall) will be in recovery mode, and large swaths of the population will be without power for a significant amount of time.

One of the reasons this particular scenario is so bad is because there could be over a foot of wrap-around snow in Western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Eastern Ohio. If that happens, then those utility crews that would normally be coming to help us in the Mid-Atlantic will be busy picking up the pieces from their own disaster. A foot of snow with leaves still on the trees, combined with significant winds, means massive power outages.

Sooo … all that help that usually descends on hurricane ravaged areas will be unavailable. Or it’ll be coming from even further away than normal. It’s going to be a massive regional recovery effort.

And that ain’t happening within a week. So, imagine what happens if significant chunks of the mid-Atlantic are still without power on the 6th. How do people vote? Will people even want to vote? Loy actually spends quite a bit of space discussing it. It’s not an unreasonable scenario to examine, if the worst-case situation occurs. That is, of course, the premise of this whole naval gazing exercise.

By the way–I’ve not seen any discussion of this particular wrinkle wrt outside help with utility recovery efforts. I don’t think anyone’s picked up on the magnitude of the problem yet. Again, it is worst-case, and we don’t have a solid grip on the likelihood. But I’m really surprised that nobody’s discussing it.

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 5:16 PM

As for Gumby.. He so is on the OfA payroll as a troll working out of Mom’s basement.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

lmao.

We’ll be enjoying gumby quotes for a good 3 months after the Romney win.

I get the feeling though….the troll itself will be long gone.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Seeing Mitt on Sunday here in VA, can’t wait!

hollygolightly on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Heh, from the liberal reporter

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

That ABC News/Wash Post poll shows a six point swing in less than two weeks. Crazy.

ABC News/Wash Post 10/21 – 10/24 1386 LV 3.0 50 47 Romney +3

ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 – 10/13 923 LV 3.5 46 49 Obama +3

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

“Ralston is horribly partisan, but more than anything, he likes to be right and he knows Nevada politics better than anyone. If he says early voting is giving Obama the necessary cushion to win, believe it.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

HAHA

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM”

Did you follow Ralston during the Reid/Angle race? When you had polls coming out showing Reid in trouble (one from Ras, who pooped his pants in 2010), he gave exact internal numbers showing Reid was comfortably ahead, and where his winning margin would come from.

And he was 100% correct.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

I’ve said it before, if Dear Leader is polling 47-48 in a state this late in the game, he is losing in that state right now.

KCB on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio. If there was any kind of break for Romney there, and he took the lead in the polls, you would see incredible confidence among Conservatives, which would lead to more volunteers and boots on the ground. It would also be a real kick in the a** to the Dems and would thoroughly dis-spirit them.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

This is why you fail. We are conservatives, and we ARE excited. We aren’t tied to your narrow view point that is formulated by picking apart and harping on any piece of data that suits your trolling purposes.

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

I can only imagine that hardcore Las Vegas will go for Obama. But everywhere else, I can’t see him winning. If the Vegas union goons put him over the top, however, it IS hard to imagine the GOP downticketers winning.

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Hardcore Vegans are mostly Republican (don’t forget that mafia had as much love for unions as any hard working person these days and once settled here are more Republican in numbers). Communist scum here have either moved recently from CA, state they destroyed beyond comprehension, or union scum comprised of many illegals.

There are a few Hussein signs we’ve seen, but for the most part its R/R signs and bumper stickers. One big issue here is pothead communists, aka “libertarians”, who have completely usurped GOP and insist they represent “people’s choice”, which is way apart from reality. A good number of them will vote for Hussein. At least I don’t have to see “Herr Doktor” sign on his now ex office along I215 in Henderson.

Early voting shows liberals roughly 20K ahead, we all know that GOP voters usually vote late. And as I keep on pointing out, Congress seats seem to be safely in GOP hands, numbers wise, polls wise, whatever wise. Main reason I think that media manipulate the numbers here to create an illusion their Idiot in Chief is winning. Same as they seem to be doing in OH now.

Desperation. All they got.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:18 PM

That ABC News/Wash Post poll shows a six point swing in less than two weeks. Crazy.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Not crazy, reality.

They have to adjust their sample to reflect the population before the actual election to have some credibility for the next election.

Now they are reporting instead of shaping.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Enough of this…
It won’t be close..
Less than two weeks from now…
The truth will be known..

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Obama is going to lose in a landslide.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Obama is going to end up with 47% of the vote… BTW, apparently Romney is now at 50% in the ABC News tracking poll. Third poll that has him hitting the magic 50% threshold. Still would like to see a flip in either WI or OH, but I’m actually feeling confident. The best idea would probably be to park Ryan in WI and tell him to win it.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I’m not sure that the same would be true of northeastern metropolitan areas.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

They do get back to work, but it’s a small area geographically and heavily populated. And if you’re not in a city in NE, then you’ll generally find yourself surrounded by trees and mountains. They’re also used to snow storms, not hurricanes. I shudder to think of the huge number of trees that could come down.

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 5:16 PM

There won’t be enough power crews for New England. Even an ice storm stretches them to days of recovery.

INC on October 25, 2012 at 5:21 PM

“Yep… the Rs are totally dispirited. That is why Romney raised $111 million dollars in about two weeks and has Obama sized crowds at his rallies.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM”

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

And since Romney is not going to win NV or WI, the only way to win the election goes through Ohio.

I can easily see Obama winning by a 270-268 EV margin. He would lose CO, NH and IA, but win WI and NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Again, Ras is oversampling Dems again. What they see is not what I see here on the ground.

NC is Romney/Ryan Territory. Now go get WI, OH, MI, CO, and whoever else is close out there.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

I hadn’t seen a new poll for NC—what was the sample?

I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.

I’m in TX and already early voted.

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

There is actually one good thing about hurricanes, and that is that people have time to prepare.

There is still time to absentee vote in areas that allow it and may be impacted by the storm. And there’s time to vote early.

I live in one of those areas, and I’m voting tomorrow.

We can get it done.

Cody1991 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Obama is going to end up with 47% of the vote… BTW, apparently Romney is now at 50% in the ABC News tracking poll. Third poll that has him hitting the magic 50% threshold. Still would like to see a flip in either WI or OH, but I’m actually feeling confident. The best idea would probably be to park Ryan in WI and tell him to win it.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I think as these last days go on, and the sheer level of despicable desperation that is being shown by the Preezy, at the last minute people are going to break hard for Romney. It is time that we restore dignity and respect to the Office of POTUS.

/Can’t wait to see Moocherella sneer @ Romney’s inauguration.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

has Obama sized crowds at his rallies.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Hussein only wishes he could have Romney size crowds these days. 6000 people showed up in Henderson during WORK HOURS. more than 20,000 showed up in CO with many turned away due to lack of room.

What is Hussein doing in LV to be able to speak to a nice size crowd? Yep, he crashes a concert, otherwise his rally will look like no rally at all.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

“I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.”

Luntz is a smart man.

Brutal hairpiece, but a smart man.

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Philly’s power company is notoriously terrible about getting power back on after big storms. I guarantee there is a war room in City Hall right now working on this.

If the snow hits anywhere it will be bad. We had a Halloween snowstorm last year and it was horrible. I lost 4 entire tress and parts of 4 more. Took weeks to clean up. Power lines were down everywhere.

rockmom on October 25, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Now they are reporting instead of shaping.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

They are still trying to shape, just on a smaller scale now.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I wonder who Rasmussen is talking to in PA. Nobody in my neighborhood, where Romney signs outnumber 0bama signs about 7-8 to 1.

CurtZHP on October 25, 2012 at 5:27 PM

I don’t think anyone’s picked up on the magnitude of the problem yet. Again, it is worst-case, and we don’t have a solid grip on the likelihood. But I’m really surprised that nobody’s discussing it.

No one’s discussing it because when people do discuss it, and it fails to come to pass, they get subject to scorn and derision.

Fabozz on October 25, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Luntz is a smart man.

Brutal hairpiece, but a smart man.

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Funny, I’ve always kind of gotten a Jerry Springfield crossed with every one of the co-hosts of The View vibe when watching him, whether 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 or 2010. I think I’d call him self-inflated, not smart.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Pfft. Villagers walk barefooted for a week through the Himalayan foothills, where mountains up to 19,000 feet are called “hills,” to reach the nearest paved road and polling station.

THAT’S hardcore.

Christien on October 25, 2012 at 5:28 PM

They are still trying to shape, just on a smaller scale now.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Well heck, if they turned on a dime it would be noticed.

1980 baby, 1980…

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Election night is going to be brutal for you.

Blind pessisimism from you on Romney’s chances tells the whole story.

There is nothing optimistic about Obama. There is no reason for independents and late deciders to vote for Obama. There is only the hope of convincing people to not vote for Romney. That is your mission. You are failing.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Springfield=Springer

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:29 PM

“I was listening to Hannity while I was waiting for kids to get out of school and he had on Frank Luntz who was saying he thought Obama was going to win. Whaaat? His whole thing was that Romney NEEDED Ohio or WI, and that Obama was up by 5 in both. Seriously, I’m going to stop listening to the radio.”

Luntz is a smart man.

Brutal hairpiece, but a smart man.

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I already voted. So it’s not like you are going to discourage me and get me to stay home. Sorry.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:30 PM

I would love to see him steal Penn, Michigan, Oh, WIs, Nev, Iowa — one and all — all breaking hard the last day or two towards him. The shock would be good for the country.

WashingtonsWake on October 25, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Obama is going to lose in a landslide.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 5:14 PM

May it be so.

Stay strong and fight, fight, fight.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 5:30 PM

I wonder who Rasmussen is talking to in PA. Nobody in my neighborhood, where Romney signs outnumber 0bama signs about 7-8 to 1.

CurtZHP on October 25, 2012 at 5:27 PM

I think Ras is a better pollster than many others because he’s not corrupt like them, but with that said…he doesn’t across as that intelligent to me.

jaygatz33 on October 25, 2012 at 5:31 PM

There is nothing optimistic about Obama. There is no reason for independents and late deciders to vote for Obama. There is only the hope of convincing people to not vote for Romney. That is your mission. You are failing.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 5:29 PM

No – he’s pretty much got Allahpundit convinced.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:31 PM

What is Hussein doing in LV to be able to speak to a nice size crowd? Yep, he crashes a concert, otherwise his rally will look like no rally at all.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Katie Perry? A safe bet most of those kids will be playing the new Halo on Nov. 6….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I am in a very sweet spot in Virginia where Romney signs and stickers absolutely dominate Obama. In fact, the few Obama signs I have seen are scattered off the road, as if one volunteer just got nutty one night. Romney signs are planted in front yards. The big 5-foot Romney yard billboard signs are here too, I have seen several of those in larger yards.

Rockygold on October 25, 2012 at 5:31 PM

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I love when The Anti-Nostradamus makes definitive statements. If you ever want to win in Vegas, take him along and bet the opposite of what he suggests.

Yesterday:

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Rasmussen Today:

Romney: 50

Obama: 47

No change

Yesterday:

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 50
Obama: 47

No change…except for:

Obama approval -2

Obama disapproval +2

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:33 PM

No – he’s pretty much got Allahpundit convinced.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I don’t know about convincing AP, he is the notorious Eeyore.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 5:33 PM

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Luntz is not very bright if he’s bought into that nutty CNN/Time poll that had Obama +5 in Ohio. Not even F. Chuck Todd was buying that.

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 5:34 PM

And he’s right on the money about OH and WI.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Luntz NEVER said that Ohio was gone and Rush wasn’t depressed. Instead of getting your talking points from Axelfraud and John Wayne Messina, maybe, you should actually listen.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I’m in Prince William County, a swing county. Knocking on doors for Romney again on Saturday and (Sandy permitting) going to see Romney in Haymarket on Sunday. Hubby and I are also both volunteering for the taskforce on election day.

Turtledove on October 25, 2012 at 5:37 PM

At best 0 takes 18 states. At best 45 %.

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

…John Wayne Messina…
Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

That’s pretty insulting to folks of a certain age. How ’bout reconsidering for future use.

And it wouldn’t be a good idea to attach “Elvis” to any of this lot,

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Register and sign in at Mitt.com whatever, and click on Events and States and see you can have the kind of fun GINA had in Red Rock…almost, ok, she says Red Rock is special to her…Paul, Mitt at different locations working down to the election in Charlottesville in Richmond and even down at the Beach where it all started.

Up in MA, I am so jealous.

Fleuries on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

If Rasmussen has PA at 51-46 with a 4.5% margin of error, I don’t think Obama is probably all that comfortable with it. Isn’t PA a state that went to Obama by over 10 points even with McCain making a last minute push? If it’s at +5 with a 4.5% margin of error, that is not a good poll for Bamby.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Sorry for OT, but I didn’t want anyone to miss this .. be sure to read it all.
Mitt, backstage at CO rally.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

At best 0 takes 18 states. At best 45 %.

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I’m not expecting R/R to hit 300 EV, but I think you’re close.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:40 PM

…John Wayne Messina…

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

That’s pretty insulting to folks of a certain age. How ’bout reconsidering for future use.

And it wouldn’t be a good idea to attach “Elvis” to any of this lot,

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I call Messina “Kenny Loggins”.

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 5:40 PM

That’s pretty insulting to folks of a certain age. How ’bout reconsidering for future use.

And it wouldn’t be a good idea to attach “Elvis” to any of this lot,

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

John Wayne GACY

Pic of the Day: Jim Messina: “Kids Love Free Candy”

M2RB: Bozo the Clown

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I live in VA.

It’s NOT going to Obama this year.

Vyce on October 25, 2012 at 5:43 PM

In 2008 I felt what would happen.. And I was right….
In 2010 I felt, and knew what would happen.. And I was right…
In 2012 I also feel it.. and smell it.. This won’t be close.. I suspect I will be right..

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 5:43 PM

John Wayne GACY

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:42 PM

No Ess Sherlock. That ain’t what comes to mind for 99.9% of those who recognize the name though.

Stick with that and insult, or think of another perv.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:44 PM

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The thing to keep in mind here in NC, is that Obama won by .4 (that’s point four percentage points when he was rock star/messiah in 2008. We’ve had the Bev Purdue (D) governor and Dem scandals pretty much rock this state.

Sorry, but I’m going to say for Obama, this state is a lost cause for him.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:45 PM

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Ahahahahaha, says the same idiot who knows so little about Ohio that he thinks the auto bailout actually helps Obama in Ohio. Ah, the sweet smell of pure panic, desperation, and flailing about hoping to do anything to depress voter turnout. Sorry, but I think people are even more po’d than they were in 2010. Each individual person would have to be struck by lighting to get people on our side to not vote.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 25, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Umm.. Yeah.. Obama isn’t ahead in OH or WI by more than a point. I sense that OH is probably tied and moving toward Mittens. WI is down by a point; however, if Ryan pulls his usual totals in the 1st Congressional District, then I’m not sure how they lose.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:47 PM

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Thanks for the read. Very inspiring. Hard not to contrast that with the Greek Columns and this.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Here’s food for thought: On November 6, the Postman and a registered Republican voter have to brave fierce weather to do their civic duty.

Who would you bet on?

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Who would you bet on?

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Me.

I went with FedEx and it is already there.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:47 PM

You’re welcome .. oh, the obscenity of the comparisons ! ..
chin in the air, halo pix, Office of the Prez-elect, etc.

Pride comes before the fall, and I sure am hoping for a WHOPPER of a fall Nov 6th.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:51 PM

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

And since Romney is not going to win NV or WI, the only way to win the election goes through Ohio.

I can easily see Obama winning by a 270-268 EV margin. He would lose CO, NH and IA, but win WI and NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Except that the polls are still moving toward Romney. Obama has already lost Ohio. All the polls there are over skewed toward Dems who are dispirited and won’t vote this time around. Obama can’t without Ohio. He’s campaigning in NH where it absolutely won’t help him. So why is he there? To stop Romney from winning with WI. That means Obama himself knows that WI is likely to go to Romney. Obama has even gone to WI. Why would he do that in a blue state?

So if Obama loses CO, NH and IA, he’s definitely not winning WI or NV. The trend will be too strong against it.

I love your posts BTW. They are so demoralizing for Dems and so uplifting for Republicans because you’re notions are so ridiculous, you’d have to live in a bubble to believe them. Seriously, you claim that Obama can lose countless swing states and still win with these two blue states, YAY!!! HAHAHAHA

MrX on October 25, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Stick with that and insult, or think of another perv.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:44 PM

You ever get a good look at Messina? The reference sure as hell wasn’t lost on me.

Dude looks like he’s going to have a lot of fun with the little kids on Halloween this year.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Sorry for OT, but I didn’t want anyone to miss this .. be sure to read it all.
Mitt, backstage at CO rally.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

awesome….thanks Pambi for sharing that. I watched the event on Cspan and you could see how touched both R and R were. This write up is special.

CoffeeLover on October 25, 2012 at 5:55 PM

You ever get a good look at Messina?

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Yes, and I would think of Jeffery Dahmer before I thought of John Wayne.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Seriously, you claim that Obama can lose countless swing states and still win with these two blue states, YAY!!! HAHAHAHA

MrX on October 25, 2012 at 5:53 PM

How soon people clay figures forget…Gore would never have needed the swing state of Florida to win in 2000, if he hadn’t been rejected by the voters of his own home state.

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Dude looks like he’s going to have a lot of fun with the little kids on Halloween this year.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I’m no fan of Jim Messina, and I know that this has become an internet meme, but this kind of personal, vicious attack is something I expect from the left and from basement-dwelling 4channers. We should not stoop so low.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:57 PM

If Rasmussen has PA at 51-46 with a 4.5% margin of error, I don’t think Obama is probably all that comfortable with it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Especially since Rasmussen has PA certain to vote at a tie.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Obama is going to lose in a landslide.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 5:14 PM

;-)

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 6:00 PM

If one follows Rasmussen now, one will see Romney leading nationally and in swing states by 2% AND achieved 50%. So, the point about Rasmussen is well taken. He also predicted Obamas win in 2008. His numbers also say Obama loses in ’12. So, yes, Rasmussen is generally right.

Read ‘em and weep.

DevilsPrinciple on October 25, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Sorry for OT, but I didn’t want anyone to miss this .. be sure to read it all.
Mitt, backstage at CO rally.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

That made me cry. Thank you for sharing that.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Read ‘em and weep.

DevilsPrinciple on October 25, 2012 at 6:03 PM

A critical point here is that this is the challenger achieving 50%.

I don’t see how an incumbent president can win with these numbers against him.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 6:07 PM

At best 0 takes 18 states. At best 45 %.

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 5:38 PM

If Barky is only getting 45% of the popular vote, then he’ll be lucky if Oregon hangs on to give him 13 states.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Number one, cool off.

Number two, some people are unfortunate enough to look like John Wayne Gacy. It’s funny, that’s all. I don’t mean to imply that Messina is a pederast, merely that he looks like someone who was.

Number three, I have a long, long way to go before I even approach the threshold of the left’s dirtbaggery just so far this month.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Sorry for OT, but I didn’t want anyone to miss this .. be sure to read it all.
Mitt, backstage at CO rally.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

That made me cry. Thank you for sharing that.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Me too. Took me by surprise.

Jackalope on October 25, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Team Romney must keep pushing ahead like they are 5 points behind!!..:)

Dire Straits on October 25, 2012 at 6:10 PM

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Q: Private polls more favorable than to candidate? A: Yes, private ones made public are, bad ones stay private. (D poll: Obama at 46 in OH)

INC on October 25, 2012 at 6:11 PM

The list of polls on Drudge is awesome. 3 polls one after another all settling at R 50& O 47%. The polls are starting to stabilize and it’s not looking good for Obama.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 25, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Luntz NEVER said that Ohio was gone and Rush wasn’t depressed. Instead of getting your talking points from Axelfraud and John Wayne Messina, maybe, you should actually listen.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I heard Luntz, too. And he NEVER said Zero was going to take OH and WI. NEVER said that. And Rush today took a call from a woman from Texas who has gone to VA to campaign for Romney and she was sort of chastising Rush for being “too optimistic.” She was worried that Romney optimism will depress the Romney vote on election day. Rush just said, “Sorry. I’m optimistic. Can’t help it.”

When O-bots like poke-me have to LIE like he always does, what does that tell one about where he really believes the state of the race is. And I happen to think that guy is a paid OFA useful idiot, so he has probably seen Zero’s campaign melting down for two weeks now.

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Vyce on October 25, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I live in VA too and I’m amazed at the number of Romney/Ryan for the Valley signs have popped up in the last few weeks.

scalleywag on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Number one, I’m cool as a cucumber.

Number two, you said Jim Messina looks like “he’s going to have a lot of fun with the little kids on Halloween this year.” You may have meant that he looks like another person who would have fun with little kids, but that’s not what you said.

Number three, I’ve never been much impressed by the argument, “yeah, but the other side is so much worse, so my behavior should be excused.”

Do I think what you said was the worst thing ever? No. But it was an inappropriate personal attack on a guy because of his appearance. You can tap-dance around that if you like, but I’m not going to ignore it just because we likely share many of the same political views.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

My family though is in CO. Most voting Romney. Two stubborn brothers and a SIL that are Obama voters. I think my mom may have talked one brother out of voting for Obama. But he says he’s not going to vote at all now. Oh well. At least Obama lost one CO vote. :)

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The thing to keep in mind here in NC, is that Obama won by .4 (that’s point four percentage points when he was rock star/messiah in 2008. We’ve had the Bev Purdue (D) governor and Dem scandals pretty much rock this state.

Sorry, but I’m going to say for Obama, this state is a lost cause for him.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:45 PM”

Ya, I was kind of surprised RCP had it back as a swing state. I have a friend in NC and she said the same thing–that enthusiasm is for Romney.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Me too. Took me by surprise.

Jackalope on October 25, 2012 at 6:09 PM

He is a good man. That just reinforced it.

That story should be a main thread – inspiration for all.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 6:16 PM

OT .. dirt on Uncle Joe, and more

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Lies are all the Trolls have left. Their messiah has fallen.

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Number two, some people are unfortunate enough to look like John Wayne Gacy.
KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 6:08 PM

I don’t get the similarity.

Messina, from RWM

Gacy

Dahmer, especially the dateline pic.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 6:18 PM

And Rush today took a call from a woman from Texas who has gone to VA to campaign for Romney and she was sort of chastising Rush for being “too optimistic.” She was worried that Romney optimism will depress the Romney vote on election day. Rush just said, “Sorry. I’m optimistic. Can’t help it.”

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

That woman on Rush’s show was quite the hand wringer, wasn’t she?

I think if you go back and look at Lunz’s success rate, you’ll see that it’s not that good. Me, I can’t stand him- I think he really likes the sound of his own voice, and that damn toupe just makes me shudder.

BettyRuth on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Romney will win Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. Obama is underperforming in all of these states.

Clued-in Dems are very scared as Dem campaign strategists are already starting to make excuses and point fingers at each other. Some have even been attempting to blame Bill Clinton for Obama’s impending defeat.

bluegill on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Ya, I was kind of surprised RCP had it back as a swing state. I have a friend in NC and she said the same thing–that enthusiasm is for Romney.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

RCP average has Romney at +5. Apparently that is a tossup….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Team Romney must keep pushing ahead like they are 5 points behind!!..:)

Dire Straits on October 25, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Yep. Where you been Dire? Missed ya!

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

From that WaPo/ABC poll, via Ace:

Should [Romney's 19 point lead with independents] stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win.

Landslide? Did WaPo/ABC just say “landslide” in relation to the upcoming election? Oh, my…

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Pelosi and Reid sure have been quiet lately.

scalleywag on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Sorry man, but Messina put that pic out there.

And in all honesty, I ain’t puttin’ any kid anywhere near that guy.

He pegs the creep meter.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 6:21 PM

RCP average has Romney at +5. Apparently that is a tossup….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

That’s odd. If Barry is +1, does that make it blue?

BettyRuth on October 25, 2012 at 6:22 PM

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 6:18 PM

You’re right. From a physical appearance standpoint, he’s certainly more similar to Dahmer than to Gacy.

People made the Gacy ties more because they think he LOOKS like a creepy child molester in that unfortunate Obama messages-on-hands ad and Gacy IS a creepy child molester.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Landslide? Did WaPo/ABC just say “landslide” in relation to the upcoming election? Oh, my…

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Same can be said of the Dem crossovers, the Gender gap, etc. etc. etc. etc.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Fair enough. I don’t think what I said was over the line. You apparently do.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 6:23 PM

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

That’s odd. If Barry is +1, does that make it blue?

BettyRuth on October 25, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Check their map. 5% is their cutoff point. At least it was the other day when I was checking them.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Apparently there is a new Connecticut poll from Mason-Dixon that shows Obama below 50%, 49-42. McMahon and Murphy tied at 44.

Mark1971 on October 25, 2012 at 6:24 PM

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