Virginia: Romney 50, Obama 48; Update: New Fox News poll also shows Romney by two

posted at 4:43 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

Fortunately, Virginia’s tilting the right way — barely. Romney’s led in seven of the nine polls taken there since the first debate, including each of the last five. If he comes through here and in Florida, where he’s led in 12 of the last 14 polls, then he’s got 248 EVs in the bank (by RCP’s estimate) with Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire all on the radar. The latest from Rasmussen:

Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April…

Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters.

Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

Ras also has a new poll of Pennsylvania today: Obama by five, with over 50 percent of the vote. Between that and Jon Ralston’s arguments for why O’s early-voting advantage in Nevada will be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, it looks for the moment like Iowa is the most plausible candidate among the supposed “Obama states” to surprise everyone on election night. Of the last five polls taken there, Obama leads in two, Romney leads in one, and two more are tied. And Romney’s giving the state plenty of attention: Remember, his big economic speech tomorrow will be delivered in Ames. If New Hampshire falls through, Iowa could replace it. Imagine The One winning squeakers in NH and Ohio but losing the presidency anyway as Iowa and Wisconsin come through for Romney. Awesome.

Just one little hitch in all of this via Brendan Loy: What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

I spoke this morning with my father, a retired elections bureaucrat in Connecticut, and he made the excellent point that the week before the election is a very busy for folks like him in his old job, and for registrars of voters, town clerks and the like. They’re testing voting machines, printing ballots or other critical papers, and doing all sorts of other mundane tasks that are critical to assuring a smooth Election Day. If the impact of the storm wipes out all or part of that critical “prep week,” then even if things are relatively “back to normal” by Election Day (by no means a given; see below), there would likely be an invisible storm impact in the form of additional chaos, “irregularities” and all manner of disruptions at the polls — failed voting machines, missing ballots, etc. — simply because the officials had to cut short their preparation, so more mistakes will inevitably happen…

Sandy is by no means equivalent to Katrina, but it could certainly lead to evacuation orders this weekend for coastal and flood-prone areas in its target zone, and it’s conceivable that those evacuation orders might not be lifted for some time after the storm if power outages, downed trees and power lines, inland flooding, etc. create a witch’s brew of unsafe conditions in the affected areas. If those areas happen to be located in a swing state, or a state with a major Senate race, it is easy to imagine decisions about when to lift evacuation orders becoming intensely politicized.

A nightmare scenario for Democrats would be an evacuation of portions of Philadelphia, which would not only endanger Bob Casey, but would take a state that Obama seems likely to win unless he’s losing swing states across the board (and thus the PA outcome doesn’t really matter), and turn it into a potentially decisive tipping-point state that could hand Romney the presidency even if he loses Ohio and most of the other swing states.

Loy also wonders what’ll happen if the power is still down in various polling places along the eastern seaboard on election day. One word, my friends: Thunderdome. Actually, two more words: Traffic goldmine. I won’t benefit since, as a New Yorker, I’ll apparently be underwater by then, but it’s nice to know that Ed, MKH, and Erika will have weeks of content from the unholy legal and political clusterfark in the aftermath.

Via the Daily Caller, here’s Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats who are considering not voting this year.

Update: Maybe Ralston spoke too soon about Nevada.

Update: Corroborating evidence: Fox also has Romney by two in Virginia, a nine-point swing since last month. Has any candidate ever helped himself as much at a debate as Romney did in that first one?


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Anyone else sick of all the polls. The one on November 6 is the ONLY one that matters. Also, Bishop.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

“Fear of God” and “Democrats” in the same sentence is an oxymoron.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

If for decades, the elections were decided by the “independents” why, with a double digit lead in those independents, do they think the race is so close?

right2bright on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I bet 0 is second guessing that Navy-bashing right about now.

Jackalope on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

First?

they lie on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Where the PPP poll for Va? Where the VA poll from my basement
gumbypoked?

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

Nothing like opening with a little Eeyoreism.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 4:47 PM

The plane, the plane

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 4:47 PM

I have been tossing around some storm-related scenarios, myself.
God only knows the nightmares involved if power is a problem, come Nov 6 !!

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Most if not all Romney/R downticket voters would float on a cushion in a tornado to go vote.

So… broken record time: Go vote, take your family and some friends. Never mind number crunching – the higher the tally the better as we are never quite sure how many of the dead and 120+ year olds will be voting.

kim roy on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Don’t say his name three times please.

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

you go Virginia! bring it home!

kelley in virginia on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

When do the riots begin to supress the votes. Dems. and Obama will do ANYTHING to keep their sorry asses in power. ANYTHING!!!Murder is not off the table.

they lie on October 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters.

Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

I don’t see how Obama wins Virginia with these kinds of numbers. And didn’t Suffolk already pull out of there a few weeks ago?

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney took the lead in the RCP Virginia average today, for the first time (I think):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

Missy on October 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

I bet 0 is second guessing that Navy-bashing right about now.

Jackalope on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Yep, and it will cost him votes in Wisconsin, too.

Mr. D on October 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

here’s Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats

Did they boo God in return?

HotAirian on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

“Anyone else sick of all the polls. The one on November 6 is the ONLY one that matters”

Thank you for the loser’s lament.

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Regarding polls: It’s quite telling that the only polls that show Obama up in swing states or nationally are virtually all polls that assume Obama will have as good as or better turnout than 2008…not happening folks.

Oh and for some laughs…check out the pathetic magazine RollingStone has become for years and their new BO interview…funny part is even on their own site Obama is getting slammed by the majority of comments. Funny stuff.

jaygatz33 on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Rendell is a Clintonista. I’m sure he’ll be able to feign disappointment if Obama loses.

Wethal on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I was going to buy some booze to celebrate Romney victory on election night. I think I’m going to need it to just get through the night. These numbers are maddening!

jennifernaz on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Obama’s probably done in VA. He’s pulled staff, and I’m betting that’s not because he thinks he’s got it in the bag.

Focus on WI, NH, IA, and especially OH the rest of the way, Mitt.

changer1701 on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Did they boo God in return?

HotAirian on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Heh.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

If this holds, it’s huge, huge, yuge news for Romney.

Robert_Paulson on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Brendan Loy made his bones predicting Katrina. Now, taking a page from Krugman, he’s predicted 9 out of the last 3 big storms. When all you have is a hammer….

Missy on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

You’re only fooling yourself. I think Romney wins this thing with 301 electoral college votes.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Just checked a reliable storm tracking site (www.crownweather.com) and they show the storm center rolling into NJ/PA area on Tuesday morning. Hmm.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Thank you for the loser’s lament.

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Not really. It just means that we’re sick of the endless polls and want these next 12 days to pass so we can vote this bum out of office.

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

Unless Hurricane Sandy destroys that part of the Constitution that very specifically states the date of the presidential election, I’d say the Dems are S.O.L.

If voting is reduced in New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC, we’re looking at an absolute rout.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Good Lord dude. Over at Huffpo THAT”S ALL THEY DO!! If I had a buck for every comment over there that says “the only poll that matters..” I could retire.

HotAirian on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Loy also wonders what’ll happen if the power is still down in various polling places along the eastern seaboard on election day. One word, my friends: Thunderdome. Actually, two more words: Traffic goldmine. I won’t benefit since, as a New Yorker, I’ll apparently be underwater by then, but it’s nice to know that Ed, MKH, and Erika will have weeks of content from the unholy legal and political clusterfark in the aftermath.

On another level, it’d be nice payback for all the liberal barking over Hurricane Isaac and the Republican Convention.

Spannerhead on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

“Fear of God” and “Democrats” in the same sentence is an oxymoron.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Exactly.

Most if not all Romney/R downticket voters would float on a cushion in a tornado to go vote.

kim roy on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

I agree. I doubt this will deter those voters.

INC on October 25, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I really wish Thunderdome had been in a better movie.

tomg51 on October 25, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

And if Romney loses Texas then we’d better by God win New York.

Come on AP, I understand Eeyorism is kinda your thing, but go read NumbersMuncher, Larry Schweikart, and Adrian Gray and keep it in line, man.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Here is a great ad, IMO, for those in SD!

http://nation.foxnews.com/political-ads/2012/10/25/best-attack-ad-year
L

letget on October 25, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Did they boo God in return?

HotAirian on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

If voting is reduced in New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC, we’re looking at an absolute rout.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

INC on October 25, 2012 at 4:57 PM

What does Rendell imply by “our voters are not nearly as reliable as the R’s are”?

Is he a racist? Does he believe the leftists to be dummer? What did you mean Ed Rendell? Inquiring minds want to know if this is PC.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Lovin’ the Sandy Snark, A-man. Keep it coming.

Loy’s a bit over-the-top, sometimes. But the basic gist of what he’s proposing is solid. Should the worst-case scenario come to be, then e-day is going to be a massive charlie foxtrot. And the Capital Weather Gang is now painting a 30% worst-case and a 75% major- to worst-case scenario.

It’s going to be fun around here for the next week or so. This is beginning to sound eerily like a last-days scenario for a societal collapse novel….

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 4:57 PM

We will win.

I was watching Fox News this AM, as I usually do, and I saw the weather lady who has been there for a few years.

I usually don’t buy into the doomsday predictions when a storm is days out, but after all the years of seeing her on TV, her face, tone, and hand gestures got my attention. I have never seen her so intense like that.

Guess we will see!

blatantblue on October 25, 2012 at 4:57 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I’m really trying to understand your purpose in life … I’ve mostly ignored you, as I’ve witnessed your poll droppings, but it strikes me that you have no other purpose than to incite pessimism here. You’re not urging people to volunteer, get out the vote, or providing any useful context for the race. You simply depress spirits intentionally.

It must suck to be you.

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

If voting is reduced in New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC, we’re looking at an absolute rout.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Remember…..Hurricanes are racist and stuff.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Nah, your side is all b-but Intrade and b-b-but Bodog.

I’d rather be looking forward to November 6 than putting all my hope that some foreign gamblers are on a lucky hunch.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

I like polls. I really do. After Ed has shown his skill at digging through all that tabular data, I’ve learned just how much has to go into a decent poll sample.

I think a few pollsters are going to have to go back to the drawing board after this one – especially the ones that keep oversampling Dems. What’s that? What do you mean you can’t control the dialog without spiking the polls?

Yeah… I thought so.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

How is Romney losing if 1 person on a blog says that? Epic fail..even for you.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Unless Hurricane Sandy destroys that part of the Constitution that very specifically delegates the date of the presidential election to Congress, I’d say the Dems are S.O.L.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Self-fixed for clarity. There’s not going to be a second bite at the apple. I’m sure Dems will beg for it, but it’s not happening.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats who are considering not voting this year.

I thought Pennsylvania voters already bitterly cling to religion…?

itsnotaboutme on October 25, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Did they boo God in return?

HotAirian on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Only if he made an appearance at an Eagles game.

nukemhill on October 25, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I’m really trying to understand your purpose in life … I’ve mostly ignored you, as I’ve witnessed your poll droppings, but it strikes me that you have no other purpose than to incite pessimism here. You’re not urging people to volunteer, get out the vote, or providing any useful context for the race. You simply depress spirits intentionally.

It must suck to be you.

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

What’s worse is that he does so on multiple blogs. But, he tends to be wrong (Walker’s a GONER), so he’s best ignored.

changer1701 on October 25, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

You also guaranteed Walker would lose, and you allegedly live in Wisconsin.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I have been tossing around some storm-related scenarios, myself.
God only knows the nightmares involved if power is a problem, come Nov 6 !!

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

It’s supposed to make landfall here in Delaware at about 2:00 AM on Tuesday morning. Perfect timing!

I don’t care if I have to wade through chest deep water to get to the polling place, I am going to vote this POS out of office.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

OT: A GOOD DAY TO DIE HARD – Official Trailer #2

AWESOMENESS!!!!

Yakko77 on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Ok, this storm (Sandy) is scheduled to hit (or not) this coming week Oct 30th-31st, the election is Nov 6th, tell me why all the teeth knashing over it effecting the election that is a week after?

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

So ONE person on a blog somewhere says something like that, and its proof positive to you that Obama is winning.

Please look up the word anecdotal, read the definition over and over and over and over until November 7th.

Random Commenter on Conservative Blog expresses concern about polls, the election is over! Its an ATOMIC BOMB for the Romney campaign!

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Obama’s probably done in VA. He’s pulled staff, and I’m betting that’s not because he thinks he’s got it in the bag.

Focus on WI, NH, IA, and especially OH the rest of the way, Mitt.

changer1701 on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

And CO.

I think Obama’s done in VA as well. I’ll be interested to see when he goes back to VA after today. Romney will be at 3 different rallies in VA on Sunday.

Missy on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Romney is losing if that phrase is uttered by one of his supporters. I can guarantee you no Obama partisans are spouting that crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Gumby, tell BHO to pick up the d^^^ed phone when I call him. He’s losing OIHO and doesn’t even know it.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Between that and Jon Ralston’s arguments for why O’s early-voting advantage in Nevada will be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, it looks for the moment like Iowa is the most plausible candidate among the supposed “Obama states” to surprise everyone on election night.

Everyone keeps acting like these early votes somehow are over and above any other votes. It’s the vote total. En early vote for Obama is one less vote on election day. Early voting does not matter one damn bit. Never has, never will. If Obama wins Nevada it will be on fundamentals at play in every other election, either the majority will vote for him or it won’t. There are some additional votes for either side added in early voting.

Unreal. Allahpundit, the original Gumby.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:02 PM

ALLREDREDHEAD EX WIFE atomic bomb goes fizzle……MAKES ROMNEY look like genius!!!

MSNBC hardest hit.

PappyD61 on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I think a few pollsters are going to have to go back to the drawing board after this one – especially the ones that keep oversampling Dems. What’s that? What do you mean you can’t control the dialog without spiking the polls?

Yeah… I thought so.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM

lol.

this noble tradition has been going on for decades…..and will continue until the jurassic media dies out completely.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I am so sick of seeing this claymation on every single thread spouting his crap. This is a person who lives to depress other people because he’s so miserable himself. Misery loves company. Take your misery somewhere else you overused piece of playdoh.

BeachBum on October 25, 2012 at 5:04 PM

RE: Update: Maybe Ralston spoke too soon about Nevada.

I have been pointing this out for weeks now. Numbers wise, there is no way the state breaks safely for GOP (1 Senate and 2 House seats, numbers have been supporting this for weeks now) and then somehow elects Hussein. Numbers wise and logic say “No way” to that.

Not saying its a done deal, but then I’d love someone in media explain to me how people who check off boxes for GOP seats in Congress then mysteriously check the box for the communist in WH.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I was watching Fox News this AM, as I usually do, and I saw the weather lady who has been there for a few years.

I usually don’t buy into the doomsday predictions when a storm is days out, but after all the years of seeing her on TV, her face, tone, and hand gestures got my attention. I have never seen her so intense like that.

Guess we will see!

blatantblue on October 25, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Janice Dean? Yeah, she usually has a pleasant disposition. When she gets that serious look, you know there’s going to be trouble.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

For some odd reason…., I don’t believe this will be a “”.. nail biter”. . “

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

WAPO – Romney lead expands to +3 over Obama!

50/47

BAMM!

Dem +4 sample. (Amazing how that has magically come down from D +9 isn’t it?)

mitchellvii on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Anyone else sick of all the polls. The one on November 6 is the ONLY one that matters. Also, Bishop.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

I LOVE polls! LOVE ‘EM! As long as they say what I want them to say.

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

this noble tradition has been going on for decades…..and will continue until the jurassic media dies out completely.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Too bad that our schools generate more of these communist zombies than their death rate. We need to clean out our school systems first.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Aaron Blake ‏@FixAaron
New Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47 http://wapo.st/S9T6Fz
Retweeted by John Podhoretz

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I want to clarify something here. I did not “express concern about polls.” I just said that I’m sick of them. I think that, if anything, the polls are understating Romney’s advantage across the board. I think he wins this thing in a cakewalk.

Gumby-the-Craptacular merely demonstrated his lack of reading comprehension by jumping to his fantasy conclusion that I was bemoaning the outcome of the poll. Instead, I was complaining about the sheer volume of polling data being spewed out in the last weeks of this race.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

For some odd reason…., I don’t believe this will be a “”.. nail biter”. . “

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Only for Team SCoAMF.

Except for Jim Messina. In his case, he won’t be biting his nails, he’ll be biting a pillow.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

For some odd reason…., I don’t believe this will be a “”.. nail biter”. . “

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

lol….me either….but let ‘em get it out of their systems.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Here is a great ad, IMO, for those in SD!

L

letget on October 25, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Better than the one where the dem senate candidate shot a copy of 0bamacre.

It doesn’t hurt that she is easy on the eyes.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

A nightmare scenario for Democrats would be an evacuation of portions of Philadelphia, which would not only endanger Bob Casey, but would take a state that Obama seems likely to win

Can anyone say “National Emergency”??? The calls in the media to delay the election would be as thunderous as the second coming.

MississippiMom on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Aaron Blake ‏@FixAaron
New Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47 http://wapo.st/S9T6Fz
Retweeted by John Podhoretz

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Great poll, gumby!

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Anyone else sick of all the polls…

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Apparently, some people need a reminder…

… One of the standing “Standard Drinking Game Rules” here at Hot Air is that if there is any mention of the word “poll” in a post, it’s time for a drinky poo.

That and “percent” and/or ” % “…

*clinky!*

:)

(now back to the thread…)

Seven Percent Solution on October 25, 2012 at 5:07 PM

It’s supposed to make landfall here in Delaware at about 2:00 AM on Tuesday morning. Perfect timing!

I don’t care if I have to wade through chest deep water to get to the polling place, I am going to vote this POS out of office.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

What’s funny is that most of the East Coast is Blue Land. Other than VA and maybe PA, this hurts Obama the most.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 5:07 PM

WAPO – Romney lead expands to +3 over Obama!

50/47

BAMM!

mitchellvii on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

And yet they still chose to endorse the loser.

UltimateBob on October 25, 2012 at 5:07 PM

There are (not) some (magical) additional votes for either side added in early voting. – sorry – showing my frustration with someone who goes over the top on this eeyore nonsense.

AP why do you look for any possible way that Romney could lose, rather than the very excellent fundamentals at play? What good does it do? Does it do anything other than suppress enthusiasm?

Really AP, what gives with this nonsense? Either your on-board for the win, or your with Gumby, which is it?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I LOVE polls! LOVE ‘EM! As long as they say what I want them to say.

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

lol….smartest thing said on this thread.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

What happened at RCP? They had Romney at 206–now it’s 191? NC is back to a swing state?

I was the optimistic one among friends and family reassuring them “we’ve got this”. And today for whatever reason–I’m NERVOUS. Must be all the eyeores I’m seeing today. Putting so much into Ohio as a MUST win. Now VA is a MUST win. What happened to everyone’s optimism? I want mine back.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

“Maybe Ralston spoke too soon about Nevada.”

Ralston is horribly partisan, but more than anything, he likes to be right and he knows Nevada politics better than anyone. If he says early voting is giving Obama the necessary cushion to win, believe it.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Not saying its a done deal, but then I’d love someone in media explain to me how people who check off boxes for GOP seats in Congress then mysteriously check the box for the communist in WH.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I was just in Nevada last week. Granted, I was in Mesquite, a smaller town just north of Las Vegas, but I also drove through Henderson and a few other places.

I saw NO Obama signs. And TONS of Romney/Ryan signs.

I can only imagine that hardcore Las Vegas will go for Obama. But everywhere else, I can’t see him winning. If the Vegas union goons put him over the top, however, it IS hard to imagine the GOP downticketers winning.

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Won’t it be great when Hussein gets that 47% of the vote on Nov 6th? Proving the point in the process.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Ralston is horribly partisan, but more than anything, he likes to be right and he knows Nevada politics better than anyone. If he says early voting is giving Obama the necessary cushion to win, believe it.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

HAHA

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 5:09 PM

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Flooding, roads blocked by trees, power outages can take a LONG time to be straightened out, which could deter the voters, or render machines inoperable… etc.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

There are (not) some (magical) additional votes for either side added in early voting. – sorry – showing my frustration with someone who goes over the top on this eeyore nonsense.

AP why do you look for any possible way that Romney could lose, rather than the very excellent fundamentals at play? What good does it do? Does it do anything other than suppress enthusiasm?

Really AP, what gives with this nonsense? Either your on-board for the win, or your with Gumby, which is it?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

It pushes his thread count up.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Again, Ras is oversampling Dems again. What they see is not what I see here on the ground.

NC is Romney/Ryan Territory. Now go get WI, OH, MI, CO, and whoever else is close out there.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

I’m just glad that eeyore AP is back, was starting to get worried.

opustx on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

You’re only fooling yourself. I think Romney wins this thing with 301 electoral college votes.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

..ignore him.

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Pat Moran picked the perfect time to go HARDCORE! \m/

Christien on October 25, 2012 at 5:11 PM

If Sandy shuts down voting in Philly, you can guarantee the dems will find judges to extend voting there by a week.

Nessuno on October 25, 2012 at 5:12 PM

If Hurricane Sandy came ashore near Washington DC, Obama might declare a national emergency and cancel the election. Maybe it would be better if Sandy missed the coast entirely.

Still, if it came ashore somewhere along the mid-Atlantic next week, there would still be a week to get things back on track. In PA, it would probably disrupt the eastern part of the state more than the west, suppressing turnout in Dem-heavy Philly while leaving the redder western part of the state unscathed.

Steve Z on October 25, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Flooding, roads blocked by trees, power outages can take a LONG time to be straightened out, which could deter the voters, or render machines inoperable… etc.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Romney doesn’t need God’s intervention with this.

God’s help as given enough voters the intelligence to see through 0bama.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

..ignore him.

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

..by that, I mean ignore the GuummedPoker; let him wither on the vine.

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

“Either your on-board for the win, or your with Gumby, which is it?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM”

The pessimism is firmly rooted in Ohio. If there was any kind of break for Romney there, and he took the lead in the polls, you would see incredible confidence among Conservatives, which would lead to more volunteers and boots on the ground. It would also be a real kick in the a** to the Dems and would thoroughly dis-spirit them.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

If Hurricane Sandy came ashore near Washington DC, Obama might declare a national emergency and cancel the election.

Steve Z on October 25, 2012 at 5:12 PM

No can do.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Ok, this storm (Sandy) is scheduled to hit (or not) this coming week Oct 30th-31st, the election is Nov 6th, tell me why all the teeth knashing over it effecting the election that is a week after?

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Here in Houston we’ve been through a hurricane or two, the last bad one being Ivan. Significant damage (flooding, power outages, lots of roofs torn off) but it’s hardly as if the city came to a screaming standstill that entire time. Within 3 – 5 days it was pretty much business as usual with some inconvenience. Methinks with a week between Sandy’s expected landfall and the election, there’s not likely to be much impact.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I want to clarify something here. I did not “express concern about polls.” I just said that I’m sick of them. I think that, if anything, the polls are understating Romney’s advantage across the board. I think he wins this thing in a cakewalk.

Gumby-the-Craptacular merely demonstrated his lack of reading comprehension by jumping to his fantasy conclusion that I was bemoaning the outcome of the poll. Instead, I was complaining about the sheer volume of polling data being spewed out in the last weeks of this race.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I’m sick of them as well. As for Gumby.. He so is on the OfA payroll as a troll working out of Mom’s basement.

Illinidiva on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Obama is going to lose in a landslide.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 5:14 PM

“Maybe Ralston spoke too soon about Nevada.”

Ralston is horribly partisan, but more than anything, he likes to be right and he knows Nevada politics better than anyone. If he says early voting is giving Obama the necessary cushion to win, believe it.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I’m hating myself for engaging you in conversation, but…

Ralston seems to think that Democrats have a silver bullet in the Nevada electorate with Latinos. His “proof” is 2010, when Harry Reid blew out Angle while Sandoval won big against Reid’s son. It’s not so cut and dried this time.

Also, every single poll out so far, in every state, has oversampled early voters, which is advantage Obama. Every single one. CAC at Ace’s site has used Secretary of State’s office numbers to prove, fairly convincingly, that polling overestimated early voting by 10% or more. You can’t fake the numbers of people who have already cast their ballots, but people can sure as hell lie to pollsters about it.

Ralston’s other big piece of evidence is a partisan Democrat poll ostensibly showing Obama ahead by a large margin. And I think anyone else can tell you how believable that is.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I want to clarify something here. I did not “express concern about polls.” I just said that I’m sick of them. I think that, if anything, the polls are understating Romney’s advantage across the board. I think he wins this thing in a cakewalk.

Gumby-the-Craptacular merely demonstrated his lack of reading comprehension by jumping to his fantasy conclusion that I was bemoaning the outcome of the poll. Instead, I was complaining about the sheer volume of polling data being spewed out in the last weeks of this race.

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Oh I know, I was looking at it from his twisted point of view.

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Here’s an article about Reid’s machine in NV … why the polls are stubborn in Obama’s favor despite economic armageddon in the state.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/us/politics/reids-machine-aims-to-push-obama-to-victory-in-nevada.html?hp&_r=1&

Nicole Coulter on October 25, 2012 at 5:15 PM

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