Let me get this straight, Eric Erickson has a few conservative friends who were going to punish the GOP by voting for Obama. Unbelievable!

Robb on October 26, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Don’t laugh, there’s a few of them types posting here.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 12:42 AM

Don’t laugh????????????????? They deserve to be ridiculed and shunned, for their willingness to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

GALLUP ADMITS 3 POINTS LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PARTY AFFILIATION!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!

In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE shift. Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable.

Oh, for goodness’ sake. It isn’t bogus or inexplicable. It’s the midpoint between 2004 and 2008 turnout models.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!

In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE shift. Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable.

Gallup is telling us the sample shoukd be R +3! If that is the case Romney is actually FAR ahead now and every single poll is wrong. We are looking at a Romney landslide.

Let me get this straight, Eric Erickson has a few conservative friends who were going to punish the GOP by voting for Obama. Unbelievable!

Robb on October 26, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Don’t laugh, there’s a few of them types posting here.

Everywhere else the walls are caving in. PPP and Marist are throwing out incredibly crazy polling – actually pretty much fradulent polling – to keep the RCP map from flipping and to keep working headlines. Ohio will not be D+5, and all the models are building in factually incorrect polling data on early voters which does not square with the reality on the ground.

As Nevada early voting is not as much better as we would hope, Ohio voting is substantially better for the GOP with Obama losing votes compared to 2008 and Romney gaining. I don’t believe indies will be +20 for Romney, but +10 will be a death wish, which is why Obama is starting to hit Philly.

I am guessing that Ohio will go 52-48 at a minimum for Romney. No gender gap, better early voting, and better enthusiasm and better indies – no way Obama is ahead. And we know everyone but Ras has their LV screens completely screwed up. Still too many RV in the models, suggesting a level of RV – ahem democrat – skew. And RCP pulling NC off because of a PPP garbage poll is a joke.

The media is going to keep challenging us to get down, because they know they must keep GOP voter enthusiasm down. Take solace that the NYT’s is facing labor trouble (just give them what they want cmon) and perhaps staring bankruptcy as ad revenue dries up, which besides the headwinds all newspapers face, plus their particularly bad circulation numbers on top of that, we may get to watch the death of an icon. I would love to see the Koch brothers buy it!!

Rasmussen: 10/23-10/23
48/48 Tie

Time: 10/22-10/23
49/44 Obama +5

SurveyUSA: 10/20-10/22
47/44 Obama +3

Suffolk: 10/18-10/21
47/47 Tie

PPP: 10/18-10/20
49/48 Obama +1

CBS News/Quinnipiac: 10/17-10/20
50/45 Obama +5

Gravis Marketing: 10/18-10/19
47/47 Tie

FOX News: 10/17-10/18
46/43 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports: 10/17-10/17
49/48 Obama +1

SurveyUSA: 10/12-10/15
45/42 Obama +3

PPP: 10/12-10/13
51/46 Obama +5

Rasmussen Reports: 10/10-10/10
48/47 Obama +1

Gravis Marketing: 10/6-10/10
45/46 Romney +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 10/7-10/9
51/45 Obama +6

ARG: 10/5-10/8
47/48 Romney +1

CNN/Opinion Research: 10/5-10/8
51/47 Obama +4

SurveyUSA: 10/5-10/8
45/44 Obama +1

WeAskAmerica: 10/4-10/4
46/47 Romney +1

Rasmussen Reports: 10/4-10/4
50/49 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/30-10/1
51/43 Obama +8

PPP: 9/27-9/30
49/45 Obama +4

Columbus Dispatch: 9/19-9/29
51/42 Obama +9

Gravis Marketing: 9/21-9/22
45/44 Obama +1

Washington Post: 9/19-9/23
52/44 Obama +8

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: 9/18-9/24
53/43 Obama +10

Purple Strategies: 9/15-9/19
48/44 Obama +4

FOX News: 9/16-9/18
49/42 Obama +7

Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.: 9/13-9/18
51/46 Obama +5

Caddell/McLaughlin/SAN (R): 9/13-9/15
47-44 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports: 9/12-9/12
47-46 Obama +1

ARG: 9/10-9/12
48/47 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/9 – 9/11
50/43 Obama +7

Of course, in Gumbyworld, Claynoggin thinks going from behind a near constant 5-10 points to being a mere 1-3 points behind or even tied is NO MOVEMENT AT ALL.

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Ohio Polls SEPT UP UNTIL First Debate:

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/30-10/1
51/43 Obama +8

PPP: 9/27-9/30
49/45 Obama +4

Columbus Dispatch: 9/19-9/29
51/42 Obama +9

Gravis Marketing: 9/21-9/22
45/44 Obama +1

Washington Post: 9/19-9/23
52/44 Obama +8

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: 9/18-9/24
53/43 Obama +10

Purple Strategies: 9/15-9/19
48/44 Obama +4

FOX News: 9/16-9/18
49/42 Obama +7

Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.: 9/13-9/18
51/46 Obama +5

Caddell/McLaughlin/SAN: 9/13-9/15
47/44 Obama +3

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/9-9/11
50/43 Obama +7

PPP: 9/7-9/9
50/45 Obama +5

Gravis: 9/7-9/8
47-43 Obama +4

Newt on fire tonight…

Says Romney is going over 300 EV’s…

Newt strikes as the kind of who makes solid predictions, he this basing on years and years of experience…

MGardner on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I think Newt’s analysis is spot on. Obama under 50 percent in so many states means that he is in big trouble.

Another interesting little tidbit
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/10/24/polls-with-large-voter-samples-all-favor-romney/

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 PM

The most encouraging thing is that several of Romney’s leads are outside the margin of error, while all of Obama’s leads are statistically insignificant. Romney is clearly winning this race.

Says Romney is going over 300 EV’s…

Newt strikes as the kind of who makes solid predictions, he this basing on years and years of experience…

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You’re delusional. Why don’t you go hang around at a lefty site, where you all can convince yourselves that Obama can’t be beat?

From Ace’s site…

“2 Nevada early vote update:

A few things first:

Unlike in 2008, Washoe County (home of Reno +20% of state’s voters), never had a day where the GOP had more early voters than Dems. For the past three days, they did just that. Washoe also hasn’t been updating their absentees on a timely basis, though they skew Republian.

Also, Clark County (home to Las Vegas and 70% of state’s voters) has 151,292 early voters after five days, while in ’08 there was only 113171 after the 5th day. The Dems lead after four days is 28,707, while in ’08 the lead was 34552. While this is an improvement, early voting in ’08 was only 60%, while it will probably be around 70% this year. That means it is possible for the Dems to be in a better position with a smaller lead then in ’08, simply because there are even fewer voters left to vote. In ’08, iirc, the Dems actually did better than the GOP on election day voters.

Here are the percentages and comparison with ’08 & ’10.

Percent after 4th day of early voting + absentees:
R 37.3%, D 45.8%, I 16.9%

Dem early vote lead is at about 1½% above the Dem registration advantage of 7%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 51.8%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 40.2%, D 44.2%, I 15.7%.

***************

In Clark County (70% of state’s population including Las Vegas) early vote after 5th day:
R 31.7, D 50.6%, I 19.3%.

In 2008 after 3rd day:
R 26.7%, D 57.2%, I 16.0%.

Clark County Early votes + absentees:
R 33.0%, D 49.8%, I 17.2%

Dem early vote lead (including absentees) is about 2% above their registration advantage of 15%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 52.0%, I 17.4%.
Total in ’10: R 37.4%, D 46.2%, I 16.4%

***************

In Washoe County (20% of state’s population and home of Reno) early voting after 5 day + absentees after 3rd day of voting.
R 41.1%, D 42.7%, I 16.1%.

Dem early vote lead is about 2½% above the even Dem/GOP registration

Total in ’08: R 35.3%, D 47.1%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 44.7%, D 40.3%, I 15.0%

***************

To summarize, not as bad as in ’08, but not nearly as good at ’10. The Democrats raw vote lead after ⅓ of early voting (and probably ¼ of the vote) is 22,877. Heller’s chances are dependant on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton Shelley Berkeley.
Posted by: The Political Hat at October 25, 2012 10:06 PM (sZTYJ)”

I’m a little stunned when I see these polls yet go to MSM sites and read articles that continue to say that they have little doubt that Obama wins this election because the electoral math still favors him. With these polls, where is this advantage I seem to be missing?

goflyers on October 25, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Wishful thinking.

Second look at getting rid of the electoral college?

Seriously???

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 25, 2012 at 8:55 PM

My thoughts exactly, Omar.

Anyone see that new obama ad? Compares Voting to sex.
wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Yeah .. Levin just asked if O’s daughters have seen it !
LOL

Click at your own risk.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Amazing. I’m 63 years old and never imagined that an American President would stoop this low. Unless there are a lot of college-aged sluts with tattoos, he just lost this election.

That he’s giving an economic speech on the Friday before the report comes out is no accident.

There is no way this advantage will manifest itself everywhere except NH, OH, PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and NV.

Wigglesworth on October 25, 2012 at 9:05 PM

We can only hope!