Romney hits 50 percent for first time in new ABC/WaPo tracking poll

posted at 6:41 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the last seven national polls taken, he leads five and is tied in another. Four of those polls now have him up by exactly three points, and three of them — Rasmussen, Gallup, and this one — now have the race precisely at 50/47. Consensus.

Second look at getting rid of the electoral college?

Romney does now boast a statistically — and substantively — important lead on the economy, which has long been the central issue of the race. When it comes to handling the nation’s struggling economy, 52 percent of likely voters say they trust Romney more, while 43 percent say they have more faith in the president…

Romney’s improvements on the economy — and on empathizing with the plight of those struggling financially — has been fueled by gains among political independents. Independents now side with Romney by campaign highs on both the economy (61 to 34 percent) and on understanding people’s problems (52 to 42 percent).

These advantages with independents undergird a sizable, 19 percentage-point Romney lead over Obama on the horse race. Should that advantage stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win. (Reagan won independent and other unaffiliated voters 63 to 36 percent, according to the exit poll). Obama won them by eight in 2008.

The curious thing about the ABC/WaPo tracker? As late as October 13, fully 10 days after Romney’s big debate win, they still had Obama up three points. The movement towards Mitt has come over the past 10 days, even though Obama supposedly “won” the last two debates. The obvious explanation is that fencesitters are tilting red as they think harder about O’s economic record; remember, while the insta-poll after the second debate had Obama ahead overall, it was Romney who scored big on the economy. That was what mattered. In fact, two of the four nights of interviews conducted for this poll came after Obama’s “victory” in the third debate, and yet Romney’s numbers are better now than they were on Monday, when he trailed by a point.

As for that mind-boggling lead among independents, the D+4 sample here is helping to neutralize it but it’s hard to imagine how Romney loses if he’s trending this way among indies and erasing the gender gap. I’m eager to see new polls from Ohio and Wisconsin next week; if there really is a 50/47 national consensus forming, it has to bleed into those states. Doesn’t it?

Meditate on that while you watch the greatest vice president in history in action.


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I’m eager to see new polls from Ohio and Wisconsin next week; if there really is a 50/47 national consensus forming, it has to bleed into those states. Doesn’t it?

You would think so. But for some strange reason, I think great lengths and unusual samples will be employed to keep the illusion alive of Obama winning in Ohio.

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Paging Gumby . . .

pianomomma on October 25, 2012 at 6:44 PM

…busy!…up to his azzhole in elbows!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 7:15 PM

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Aiming for the trick or treaters genre ??
;-)

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:08 PM

lol..
Aiming to add to the other creepy
Hall “O” ween decorations..

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Anyone see that new obama ad? Compares Voting to sex.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Here’s hoping they run that here in OIHO. It’ll turn off more voters.

buckichick1 on October 25, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Years from now we will recall the “Obama Years”. All 4 of them.

And we will warn our grandchildren so that Americans will never make this mistake again. Ever.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Just saw a vid of Obama voting and they asked to see his ID.

Damn it, the President is a busy man. Surely he can’t be expected to waste an additional 10 seconds of his time, can he?

The injustice of it all!

WisRich on October 25, 2012 at 7:18 PM

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/25/wisconsin-gop-campaign-worker-hospitalized-after-apparent-gay-bashing-assault/

Gay GOP campaign worker had the shizzat beaten out of him for being gay a GOP campaign worker

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 7:19 PM

I don’t think you can always compare mid-terms to Presidential races.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 7:03 PM

I think historical evidence would prove you correct, however, I believe there is so much hate toward the Blightbringer that the 2010 midterms/Obamacare opposition/Gov Walker recall/ChickFilA protests type of momentum we have seen past 24 mos. will result in a +7 R/R win…tsunami is a comin’

hillsoftx on October 25, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Come on angry mike, my Grannydee, cyncook..
get your peeps out! Do it for us!

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:19 PM

.

I’m eager to see new polls from Ohio and Wisconsin next week; if there really is a 50/47 national consensus forming, it has to bleed into those states. Doesn’t it?

I sure hope so.

Terrye on October 25, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Damn it, the President is a busy man. Surely he can’t be expected to waste an additional 10 seconds of his time, can he?

The injustice of it all!

WisRich on October 25, 2012 at 7:18 PM

he didn’t scream “Ya’ll are gonna disenfranchise me and make me lose mah mind!”

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 7:20 PM

You would think so. But for some strange reason, I think great lengths and unusual samples will be employed to keep the illusion alive of Obama winning in Ohio.

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Yep. They will hold out on Ohio until the end no matter what. Any appearance of Ohio going to Mitt could trigger the dreaded cascade.

It’ll be amazing if Mitt can pull this off against the full force of the media and all the double early voting.

forest on October 25, 2012 at 7:20 PM

PappyD61 on October 25, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Here’s the link to that ad:

http://www.therightscoop.com/disqusting-new-obama-ad-asks-who-would-you-rather-do-it-with-obama-or-romney/

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Voted today in North Dakota. Long lines for early voting. People are engaged.

TXMomof3 on October 25, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Anyone see that new obama ad? Compares Voting to sex.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Good lord, I hope they put that one on TV, if only so we can hear:

“I’m Barack Obama, and I uhhh… I uhhhh… David, are you sure this is a good idea? This ad isn’t running in Virginia or D.C. is it? If Sasha and Malia see this, Michelle will kill me. Alright… I’m Barack Obama, and I uhhhh– Jesus, I can’t believe its come to this– I’m Barack Obama, and, regretfully, I approve this message.”

Lawdawg86 on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Here it is.

Flange on October 25, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Man, it’s even worse the second time through with the sound off. You get to experience the facial expressions…that empty-headed early 20s combination of smugness + self-congratuation + fear + anger.

These are the people that would rule us?

Dirt McGirt on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Anyone see that new obama ad? Compares Voting to sex.
wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Yeah .. Levin just asked if O’s daughters have seen it !
LOL

Click at your own risk.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Lake-County-veteran-s-Mitt-Romney-signs-flags-torched-in-yard/-/1637132/17135018/-/14gkcooz/-/index.html

they are unhinged……

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Yeah..some bad shite in 2008 here as well.
One reason I put nothing out or on my car.

In 08..one mans car had swastikas sprayed on it..cig butts put out on it, used as a toilet…not to far from your post location.
Good times.
Loving and sweet libs..

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Lawdawg86 on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Thread Winner!!!

Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 7:27 PM

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Before I pass this around, help me be sure of the motivation .. he was beaten for being on the side of a gay Dem’s GOP opponent, yes ??

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:27 PM

I drive past the IBEW union hall everyday. For a long time, they only had a sign for the guy running against Paul Ryan for the House seat. It wasn’t until last week that they put out a pretty small 0bama sign, and an even smaller Tammy Baldwin sign. Just recently there has been an increase in 0bama signs in SE Wisconsin, but there are also lots of RR signs out.

Sasha List on October 25, 2012 at 7:28 PM

The plane, the plane

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Come on angry mike, my Grannydee, cyncook..
get your peeps out! Do it for us!

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Yeah, get after it like it was an Ohio State vs. Michigan game.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 7:31 PM

“Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action.”

More voting problems reported in Jamestown, Pleasant Garden
http://myfox8.com/2012/10/24/more-early-voting-issues-in-guilford-county/

GREENSBORO, N.C. — Once again, several voters in Guilford County are claiming the electronic voting machines are getting their votes wrong.

Now, some voters are concerned about polling locations in Jamestown and Pleasant Garden.

On Tuesday, voters who cast their ballots at the Bur-Mil Park polling location said when they attempted to vote for Mitt Romney the machine chose Barack Obama.

“I thought this might be a one-time glitch in the machine. I had no idea this might be happening somewhere else. This is when I called (FOX8) and said this needs to stop,” said Stum.

Guilford County Board of Elections Director George Gilbert says the problem is the machines needed to be re-calibrated.

Galt2009 on October 25, 2012 at 7:33 PM

knock

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Who’s there?

Mary in LA on October 25, 2012 at 7:34 PM

One can find logic in debate performance numbers, as in stacking sales numbers. After first debate Romney convinced 60% of undecideds. So if/when Obama “won” second debate- he convinced 50% of the 40% left after first debate, and then 50% of the last 50% off 40%. So in final numbers Romney got 60%, Oblammer got 25%, and the last 15% are brain dead, or far out commies/libertarians. And that is my analisys.

anikol on October 25, 2012 at 7:35 PM

The plane, the plane

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Thank you Schad..
I needed a good laugh.
aloha

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:35 PM

The pic shows an evil pair of eyes.

Good news. I am hoping for bigger lead.

vnohara on October 25, 2012 at 7:40 PM

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Who’s there?

Mary in LA on October 25, 2012 at 7:34 PM

A delirious B9. :)

bazil9 on October 25, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Galt2009 on October 25, 2012 at 7:33 PM

My CONSERVATIVE niece just FB’d that she just got her polling abserver assignment today.
She lives in Wimlington, NC.
Have asked her for any stories she hears of, or is party to.
She LOL’d when I asked her if she was given a light blue hard hat. ;-)

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:47 PM

lmao, biden vs biden, that was gold.

thinkagain on October 25, 2012 at 7:50 PM

This Allred play was not the October surprise. It was meant to be a distraction, nothing more, and if she’d gotten the gag order lifted, it would have sucked up a few news cycles, taking air time away from Benghazi.

The real October Surprise will be a phenomenal Jobs Report next week. Obama hopes that it will have the same effect on his campaign as the first debate did on Romney’s.

Rush, Hannity, Levin, Hewitt, Bruce, this site…anyone within earshot of a microphone or who writes for a blog needs to begin a preemptive blunting of a cooked jobs report.

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Todd Akin is going to be on Mark Levin’s radio show sometime in the third hour. His show runs from 6PM to 9PM in the EDT zone.

http://marklevinshow.com/home.asp

bluefox on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Todd Akin is going to be on Mark Levin’s radio show sometime in the third hour. His show runs from 6PM to 9PM in the EDT zone.

http://marklevinshow.com/home.asp

bluefox on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Any chance Missouri voters caught a little Romnesia and Akin have any chance at winning?

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 7:54 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/us-newyorktimes-results-idUSBRE89O0UF20121025

The New York Times Co (NYT.N) posted worse-than-expected results on Thursday as advertisers cut spending on both print and digital outlets, sending its shares down 22 percent.

also

The weak quarterly earnings came as a scandal is unfolding at Britain’s public broadcaster the BBC, whose former head Mark Thompson is due to take the helm at the New York Times Co as president and CEO on November 12.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Here’s the link to that ad:

http://www.therightscoop.com/disqusting-new-obama-ad-asks-who-would-you-rather-do-it-with-obama-or-romney/

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 7:21 PM

As bad as that ad is — and it is baaaad — it gets worse. The Zero team lifted the idea from…a Putin ad. I. Kid. You. Not.

The American president isn’t just running ads equating voting for him with having sex with him — he stole the idea from a Russkie dictator.

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Any chance Missouri voters caught a little Romnesia and Akin have any chance at winning?

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I’ve mentioned anecdotal evidence that there are a lot more yard signs for Akin around here than McCaskill, but just in the last week, it’s gotten so ridiculous that even I’m shocked. And I’m in North Saint Louis County which is a very blue section of the county.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 25, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Before I pass this around, help me be sure of the motivation .. he was beaten for being on the side of a gay Dem’s GOP opponent, yes ??

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:27 PM

From the article:

Wood said his attacker’s reference to a warning likely pointed to graffiti he found painted on his car last week. The vandalism included the phrases “house trained republican f@ggot,” “traitor,” and “ur like a jew 4 hitler.”

Unless he staged it all himself, it seems kind of cut and dry. The left in Wisconsin is quite violent.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 8:05 PM

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Ok, thanks.
That’s how I read it, but sure dinna want to be wrong.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 8:07 PM

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 7:57 PM

So the Gray Lady won’t be mistaken for a “lady” much longer?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Zero’s “voting for me is just like having sex with me” ad has gone viral. Should be pulled (no pun intended) within the hour. Epic disaster. Here’s a Twitter round-up of some hilarious reaction:

“OK, honey, show me on the doll where the President touched you.”

Obama’s going to make us pay for voter protection, isn’t he?

I’m just thankful that Obama ad didn’t end with Lena Dunham in bed with Big Bird.

And you thought Obama had lousy numbers with men BEFORE his campaign said voting for him was like having sex with him.

Looks like Obama team’s “First Time” video as gone viral. I told them this would happen if they didn’t use protection.

The only way that #lenadunhamvideo could have been any more crass is if Obama asked women for video of their “O” faces.

With Lena Dunham, they found the living embodiment of Julia. Submissive to and Dependent on a man who doesn’t really provide.

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 8:13 PM

This may be wishful thinking on my part—starting to wonder if Obama and his disgusting team are trying to throw this race.

The three debates totally exposed Obama for the fraud/liar that he is in front of 70M people.
His rediculous behavior on the campaign trail does nothing to help him win Independents/undecided only to fire up voters with the same adolescent mindset as his.

Does Obama and his team of liars really want to be in office when the truth about Benghazi hits the fan? Does he really want to be impeached in his second term, or get the blame for Iran getting a nuke, or all the other disasters to come?

Has Obama realized it’s not going to be as much fun to be a celebrity president the next four years?
He’s less likely to be prosecuted for the Benghazi coverup if he’s an ex-president.

Just a thought.

bailey24 on October 25, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Nothing is going to happen with bhegazi so no he’s not throwing it. Ohio needs to suck it up a little bit.

Conservative4ev on October 25, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Erick Ericson Tweets:

my few conservative friends who’d decided to stick with Obama to punish the GOP for nominating Mitt came back tonight w/ the virginity ad.

What a disaster for Zero. Imagine if a GOP candidate did this — imagine the feminazis going berserk over it!

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 8:21 PM

You know… These polls with D+5 or +8 or whatever… how many of them are crossing over to vote Romney? How many are D’s that woke up and said “that was a really bad idea in 2008!”

KCsecurity1976 on October 25, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

They tried a cooked jobs report already, and it did diddly squat. Voters do not typically change their perceptions of a candidate as being good or bad for the economy this late in their term.

In other words, if the Obama campaign was gonna try to do this, they would’ve needed to drastically cook job reports, nearly all year, on a regularly basis.

WolvenOne on October 25, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Maybe this is one reason people aren’t voting for Barky.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/8803335-another-new-record-disability-975-day-under-obama

Philly on October 25, 2012 at 8:45 PM

What a disaster for Zero. Imagine if a GOP candidate did this — imagine the feminazis going berserk over it!

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 8:21 PM

The double standard is so great they forget they need standards as well. That’s especially true with this ad. I’m an ex-lib and that ad is just… vomit inducing creepiness level.

MrX on October 25, 2012 at 8:49 PM

This Allred play was not the October surprise. It was meant to be a distraction, nothing more, and if she’d gotten the gag order lifted, it would have sucked up a few news cycles, taking air time away from Benghazi.

The real October Surprise will be a phenomenal Jobs Report next week. Obama hopes that it will have the same effect on his campaign as the first debate did on Romney’s.

Rush, Hannity, Levin, Hewitt, Bruce, this site…anyone within earshot of a microphone or who writes for a blog needs to begin a preemptive blunting of a cooked jobs report.

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Ace has a great post closing the door on the Allred story.

Yes jobs report will be cooked, as the last one was. What big state will be left off this time?

Other October surprises are in the works, bet on it. This crowd is much more malicious than simply being able to fake jobs reports.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 8:51 PM

This poll makes me feel all gooshy inside.

Norky on October 25, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Second look at getting rid of the electoral college?

Seriously???

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 25, 2012 at 8:55 PM

How disgusting is it that Joe Biden said this at the funeral to the Father of one of the Seals killed in Benghazi? ‘Did Your Son Always Have Balls the Size of Cue Balls?’
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/joe-biden-to-father-of-former-navy-seal-killed-in-benghazi-did-your-son-always-have-balls-the-size-of-cue-balls/

Conservalicious on October 25, 2012 at 8:58 PM

They tried a cooked jobs report already, and it did diddly squat. Voters do not typically change their perceptions of a candidate as being good or bad for the economy this late in their term.

In other words, if the Obama campaign was gonna try to do this, they would’ve needed to drastically cook job reports, nearly all year, on a regularly basis.

WolvenOne on October 25, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Obama never expected his reelection to be in jeopardy, or they might have very well cooked the books earlier on. For most ppl, a drop in unemployment to 7.5% will be seen for what it is, a cooked number based on dropping who-knows-how-many tens of thousands of ppl off the rolls of ppl seeking employment. But for some of the squishy middle and the last-minute undecideds, it could be enough to stick with Obama.

In any case, it is prudent to expect such an October Surprise, and act early to blunt its effect.

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Math is HARD!
Mitt up by 3 50 – 47

Mitt wins R’s say by 93%
Obam Wins D’s say by 93%
Mitt wins Indies by 10 and 27 average 19

Obama 93 + D+4 = 97
97 OBam – 93 Mitt = 4 Obam – 19 indies Mitt = +15 Mitt

So + 15 Mitt becomes Mitt + 3
Where did 12 go? Voter dead? D’s voting twice?Math is hard for Presstitutes and OBama

ConcealedKerry on October 25, 2012 at 9:01 PM

In the books yet to be written about this presidency, the Obama administration’s exceptional readings of reality will deserve an honored place, and a large one. One that should also acknowledge the fact that, in the end, the American people inevitably recognize the difference between lies and truth, illusion and the real thing.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Conservalicious on October 25, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I can go to the site, but can’t open the conversations on the iPad thingy.
Are you sure that isn’t a Glenn spoof ??

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 9:04 PM

There is no way this advantage will manifest itself everywhere except NH, OH, PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and NV.

Wigglesworth on October 25, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Pambi, Glenn talked to the Father on the phone on his show. It is not a spoof.

Conservalicious on October 25, 2012 at 9:06 PM

There is no way this advantage will manifest itself everywhere except NH, OH, PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and NV.

Wigglesworth on October 25, 2012 at 9:05 PM

We can only hope!

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I’m sure that Romney is already expecting a cooked Jobs report, and in his Economy speech tomorrow will allude to the number of ppl who are arbitrarily being subtracted from the rolls. And how the real unemployment figure is much larger than what is stated.

That he’s giving an economic speech on the Friday before the report comes out is no accident.

Godzilla on October 25, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Anyone see that new obama ad? Compares Voting to sex.
wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Yeah .. Levin just asked if O’s daughters have seen it !
LOL

Click at your own risk.

pambi on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Amazing. I’m 63 years old and never imagined that an American President would stoop this low. Unless there are a lot of college-aged sluts with tattoos, he just lost this election.

RedWinged Blackbird on October 25, 2012 at 9:11 PM

I’m a little stunned when I see these polls yet go to MSM sites and read articles that continue to say that they have little doubt that Obama wins this election because the electoral math still favors him. With these polls, where is this advantage I seem to be missing?

goflyers on October 25, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Second look at getting rid of the electoral college?

Seriously???

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 25, 2012 at 8:55 PM

My thoughts exactly, Omar.

Lanceman on October 25, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Rove says Romney will likely take Ohio…

MGardner on October 25, 2012 at 9:24 PM

This must be wrong. Nate Silver still has Obama at a 79 percent chance of winning. /

DavidW on October 25, 2012 at 9:37 PM

I’m a little stunned when I see these polls yet go to MSM sites and read articles that continue to say that they have little doubt that Obama wins this election because the electoral math still favors him. With these polls, where is this advantage I seem to be missing?

goflyers on October 25, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Wishful thinking.

ghostwriter on October 25, 2012 at 9:55 PM

For anyone who thinks early voting is going well for Romney…

From Ace’s site…

“2 Nevada early vote update:

A few things first:

Unlike in 2008, Washoe County (home of Reno +20% of state’s voters), never had a day where the GOP had more early voters than Dems. For the past three days, they did just that. Washoe also hasn’t been updating their absentees on a timely basis, though they skew Republian.

Also, Clark County (home to Las Vegas and 70% of state’s voters) has 151,292 early voters after five days, while in ’08 there was only 113171 after the 5th day. The Dems lead after four days is 28,707, while in ’08 the lead was 34552. While this is an improvement, early voting in ’08 was only 60%, while it will probably be around 70% this year. That means it is possible for the Dems to be in a better position with a smaller lead then in ’08, simply because there are even fewer voters left to vote. In ’08, iirc, the Dems actually did better than the GOP on election day voters.

Here are the percentages and comparison with ’08 & ’10.

Percent after 4th day of early voting + absentees:
R 37.3%, D 45.8%, I 16.9%

Dem early vote lead is at about 1½% above the Dem registration advantage of 7%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 51.8%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 40.2%, D 44.2%, I 15.7%.

***************

In Clark County (70% of state’s population including Las Vegas) early vote after 5th day:
R 31.7, D 50.6%, I 19.3%.

In 2008 after 3rd day:
R 26.7%, D 57.2%, I 16.0%.

Clark County Early votes + absentees:
R 33.0%, D 49.8%, I 17.2%

Dem early vote lead (including absentees) is about 2% above their registration advantage of 15%

Total in ’08: R 30.6%, D 52.0%, I 17.4%.
Total in ’10: R 37.4%, D 46.2%, I 16.4%

***************

In Washoe County (20% of state’s population and home of Reno) early voting after 5 day + absentees after 3rd day of voting.
R 41.1%, D 42.7%, I 16.1%.

Dem early vote lead is about 2½% above the even Dem/GOP registration

Total in ’08: R 35.3%, D 47.1%, I 17.5%.
Total in ’10: R 44.7%, D 40.3%, I 15.0%

***************

To summarize, not as bad as in ’08, but not nearly as good at ’10. The Democrats raw vote lead after ⅓ of early voting (and probably ¼ of the vote) is 22,877. Heller’s chances are dependant on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton Shelley Berkeley.
Posted by: The Political Hat at October 25, 2012 10:06 PM (sZTYJ)”

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You’re delusional. Why don’t you go hang around at a lefty site, where you all can convince yourselves that Obama can’t be beat?

ghostwriter on October 25, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Another interesting little tidbit
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/10/24/polls-with-large-voter-samples-all-favor-romney/

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Newt on fire tonight…

Says Romney is going over 300 EV’s…

Newt strikes as the kind of who makes solid predictions, he this basing on years and years of experience…

MGardner on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Another interesting little tidbit
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/10/24/polls-with-large-voter-samples-all-favor-romney/

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 PM

The most encouraging thing is that several of Romney’s leads are outside the margin of error, while all of Obama’s leads are statistically insignificant. Romney is clearly winning this race.

ghostwriter on October 25, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Newt on fire tonight…

Says Romney is going over 300 EV’s…

Newt strikes as the kind of who makes solid predictions, he this basing on years and years of experience…

MGardner on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I think Newt’s analysis is spot on. Obama under 50 percent in so many states means that he is in big trouble.

ghostwriter on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Tis lib on Greeta’s panel is annoying, and kind of stupid.

ghostwriter on October 25, 2012 at 10:56 PM

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Ohio Polls SEPT UP UNTIL First Debate:

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/30-10/1
51/43 Obama +8

PPP: 9/27-9/30
49/45 Obama +4

Columbus Dispatch: 9/19-9/29
51/42 Obama +9

Gravis Marketing: 9/21-9/22
45/44 Obama +1

Washington Post: 9/19-9/23
52/44 Obama +8

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: 9/18-9/24
53/43 Obama +10

Purple Strategies: 9/15-9/19
48/44 Obama +4

FOX News: 9/16-9/18
49/42 Obama +7

Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.: 9/13-9/18
51/46 Obama +5

Caddell/McLaughlin/SAN: 9/13-9/15
47/44 Obama +3

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/9-9/11
50/43 Obama +7

PPP: 9/7-9/9
50/45 Obama +5

Gravis: 9/7-9/8
47-43 Obama +4

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Ohio Polls AFTER First Debate:

Rasmussen: 10/23-10/23
48/48 Tie

Time: 10/22-10/23
49/44 Obama +5

SurveyUSA: 10/20-10/22
47/44 Obama +3

Suffolk: 10/18-10/21
47/47 Tie

PPP: 10/18-10/20
49/48 Obama +1

CBS News/Quinnipiac: 10/17-10/20
50/45 Obama +5

Gravis Marketing: 10/18-10/19
47/47 Tie

FOX News: 10/17-10/18
46/43 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports: 10/17-10/17
49/48 Obama +1

SurveyUSA: 10/12-10/15
45/42 Obama +3

PPP: 10/12-10/13
51/46 Obama +5

Rasmussen Reports: 10/10-10/10
48/47 Obama +1

Gravis Marketing: 10/6-10/10
45/46 Romney +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 10/7-10/9
51/45 Obama +6

ARG: 10/5-10/8
47/48 Romney +1

CNN/Opinion Research: 10/5-10/8
51/47 Obama +4

SurveyUSA: 10/5-10/8
45/44 Obama +1

WeAskAmerica: 10/4-10/4
46/47 Romney +1

Rasmussen Reports: 10/4-10/4
50/49 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/30-10/1
51/43 Obama +8

PPP: 9/27-9/30
49/45 Obama +4

Columbus Dispatch: 9/19-9/29
51/42 Obama +9

Gravis Marketing: 9/21-9/22
45/44 Obama +1

Washington Post: 9/19-9/23
52/44 Obama +8

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: 9/18-9/24
53/43 Obama +10

Purple Strategies: 9/15-9/19
48/44 Obama +4

FOX News: 9/16-9/18
49/42 Obama +7

Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.: 9/13-9/18
51/46 Obama +5

Caddell/McLaughlin/SAN (R): 9/13-9/15
47-44 Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports: 9/12-9/12
47-46 Obama +1

ARG: 9/10-9/12
48/47 Obama +1

NBC/WSJ/Marist: 9/9 – 9/11
50/43 Obama +7

Of course, in Gumbyworld, Claynoggin thinks going from behind a near constant 5-10 points to being a mere 1-3 points behind or even tied is NO MOVEMENT AT ALL.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Nevada may be the tease – it is the only state where Obama has played with 50% and we all know about the Reid machine. Still, Romney is closing, the question will be is it enough.

Everywhere else the walls are caving in. PPP and Marist are throwing out incredibly crazy polling – actually pretty much fradulent polling – to keep the RCP map from flipping and to keep working headlines. Ohio will not be D+5, and all the models are building in factually incorrect polling data on early voters which does not square with the reality on the ground.

As Nevada early voting is not as much better as we would hope, Ohio voting is substantially better for the GOP with Obama losing votes compared to 2008 and Romney gaining. I don’t believe indies will be +20 for Romney, but +10 will be a death wish, which is why Obama is starting to hit Philly.

I am guessing that Ohio will go 52-48 at a minimum for Romney. No gender gap, better early voting, and better enthusiasm and better indies – no way Obama is ahead. And we know everyone but Ras has their LV screens completely screwed up. Still too many RV in the models, suggesting a level of RV – ahem democrat – skew. And RCP pulling NC off because of a PPP garbage poll is a joke.

The media is going to keep challenging us to get down, because they know they must keep GOP voter enthusiasm down. Take solace that the NYT’s is facing labor trouble (just give them what they want cmon) and perhaps staring bankruptcy as ad revenue dries up, which besides the headwinds all newspapers face, plus their particularly bad circulation numbers on top of that, we may get to watch the death of an icon. I would love to see the Koch brothers buy it!!

Zomcon JEM on October 25, 2012 at 11:42 PM

Let me get this straight, Eric Erickson has a few conservative friends who were going to punish the GOP by voting for Obama. Unbelievable!

Robb on October 26, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Let me get this straight, Eric Erickson has a few conservative friends who were going to punish the GOP by voting for Obama. Unbelievable!

Robb on October 26, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Don’t laugh, there’s a few of them types posting here.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 12:42 AM

GALLUP ADMITS 3 POINTS LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PARTY AFFILIATION!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!

In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE shift. Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable.

Gallup is telling us the sample shoukd be R +3! If that is the case Romney is actually FAR ahead now and every single poll is wrong. We are looking at a Romney landslide.

mitchellvii on October 26, 2012 at 7:01 AM

GALLUP ADMITS 3 POINTS LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PARTY AFFILIATION!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!

In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE shift. Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable.

Oh, for goodness’ sake. It isn’t bogus or inexplicable. It’s the midpoint between 2004 and 2008 turnout models.

ghostwriter on October 26, 2012 at 8:20 AM

Let me get this straight, Eric Erickson has a few conservative friends who were going to punish the GOP by voting for Obama. Unbelievable!

Robb on October 26, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Don’t laugh, there’s a few of them types posting here.

slickwillie2001 on October 26, 2012 at 12:42 AM

Don’t laugh????????????????? They deserve to be ridiculed and shunned, for their willingness to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

ghostwriter on October 26, 2012 at 8:22 AM

Watching the Democratic meltdown makes me belive that we are going to see a new first in the White House – A lame duck President giving himself a pardon.

Uniblogger on October 26, 2012 at 9:44 AM

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