Magic gone in Ohio?

posted at 1:21 pm on October 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In 2008, Barack Obama campaigned like a rock star, especially in places hard hit by the economy, like Ohio — which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout.  Four years later, the rock-star vibe has utterly faded, and the campaign has turned into a grind for Team Obama as they dig up every vote they can find to try to hold off a resurgent Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State.  Byron York describes it as “the magic is gone”:

Messina is particularly focused on what are called low-propensity or sporadic voters — that is, voters who can’t be relied on to show up at the polls regularly, who might or might not make it to vote on Election Day.  If Obama can bank their votes early, he won’t have to worry about them on November 6.  “Sporadic voters matter,” Messina explained.  “It can’t just be about getting your traditional Democrats to vote early. If that were the case, then we’d be wasting our time and money.  This is about increasing the overall share of people who may be drop-off voters…”

So far, there are indications the Obama/Messina plan is making progress.  In the latest Rasmussen poll, released Wednesday, which showed the race in Ohio locked in a 48-48 tie, Obama led among early voters by ten percentage points.  The problem is, that’s less of a lead than Obama had among early voters in 2008.  So now, the president is frantically pursuing all those sporadic voters out there, begging them to cast a ballot early.

That’s the essence of the Obama re-election effort less than two weeks from Election Day.  Team Obama knows the campaign doesn’t have the magic it had in 2008.  Crowds are enthusiastic, but not over-the-top enthusiastic.  Obama’s strategy is to make up the excitement gap by just grinding it out, doing the organizational work of getting the people most likely to support the president — blacks, Latinos, women, the young — to vote early.  By doing so, he hopes to build up a sufficient bank of votes to prevail over Romney on November 6.  It’s the no-magic campaign.

But it’s not all magic, as York reminds us.  Obama may have done poorly in the debates, and step on his message in extemporaneous conversations, but on the stump Obama is formidable:

One fact that seems sometimes lost in the obsession with early voting and the ground game is that Obama remains a very, very good campaigner.  Certainly at Triangle Park he delivered what could only be called an extraordinarily polished performance. In recent days the Romney campaign has characterized the president’s stump speeches as “increasingly desperate.”  Perhaps that’s true, but the fact is, Obama is still an impressively effective campaigner when it comes to delivering speeches at old-fashioned political rallies. Comparing Romney and Obama on the stump is no contest.  Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Yesterday, Time Magazine released a poll in Ohio showing Obama up by 5, 49/44, but the sample was D+9, with lower Republican turnout than in 2008.  No one took it seriously, including Chuck Todd — and as he reports, neither of the campaigns did either:

Let’s take a look at a poll that went largely unremarked yesterday.  Survey USA polled 609 likely and actual voters (those who have already cast ballots) in Ohio and found the race in a virtual tie, 47/44 for Obama, and found the same in the Senate race, with Republican challenger Josh Mandel just one point behind Sherrod Brown, 42/43.  The sample is also a little suspect at D+7 (39/32/25), but the internals are interesting in the presidential race:

  • Gender gap is Obama +5 overall (-7 among men, +12 among women).  In 2008, Obama was +11 in the gender gap (+3 men, +8 women).
  • Romney leads among independents by 8.  In 2008, Obama won them by 8 — a 16-point flip in the gap.  Furthermore, Obama only gets to 39% in this demo.  Late breaking deciders usually go for the challenger, especially in poor economic conditions, which means Romney has a pretty good chance of getting a double-digit advantage among independents.
  • Obama beats Romney 2-1 among 18-34YOs (58/29), but Romney wins two of the three other demos and ties among 50-64YOs at 46%.  Again, late deciders will probably break toward Romney, but the younger voters seem to be somewhat oversampled here too, although the exit polling doesn’t exactly line up with Survey USA’s categories.  Voters 44 and under accounted for 41% of the Ohio vote in 2008, but voters 49 and below account for 49% of Survey USA’s respondents.

It’s a razor-close race in Ohio, but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.


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How can you disenfranchise someone in a poll?

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

How can MSNBC still be on the air?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 4:17 PM

How can you disenfranchise someone in a poll?

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Look, I’m not saying I agree with MSNBC’s Alternate Universe Logic, I’m just saying…

GadsdenRattlers on October 25, 2012 at 4:17 PM

You mean we should not place too much stock on this Yahoo News article :

Mitt Romney still hasn’t given up on Ohio

?

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Mitt Romney still hasn’t given up on Ohio

That’s just typical Yahoo snark. Someone from the left probably insisted on it. I think Obama is back to his “we’re going to announce that we’re coming back so that all the Repub’s get sad and don’t show up to vote”. (I’m sorry but this is the level of this guys game- very lame)

BettyRuth on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

The other day Obama came up with a new slogan, “Trust Matters.”

INC on October 25, 2012 at 1:43 PM

And instantly lost 2 points in major polls.

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

I love how Ed calls a 3 point lead a virtual tie.

I really hope that if O wins Ed will give up poll interpretation for good. He’s one of the original “unskewers.”

red_herring on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Hey Guys! Another worthless troll has come online!

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Either I misunderstood or you misunderstood. I took blatantblue to be a liberal based on username. But if that is incorrect, I apologize to both of you.

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Every body is still polling to sway the election.
I think the media knows this is their last gasp

tarpon on October 25, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Few in Michigan regard the auto bailout as a major voting decision. We recognize they circumvented the normal bk process. They screwed the bond holders and handed the companies to the union using taxpayer money to fully fund the union pensions but screwed the non-union workers out of their pensions. Also more jobs were lost than saved when you consider all of the forced dealership closings when franchise agreements were voided in the bk.. Many of those dealerships were in their third generation of ownership and poof, overnight they were wiped out with dozens of lost jobs at each dealership.

Just heard Lunz on Hannity. He thinks Obama takes WI and OH because he continues to lead in the polls. Guess he doesn’t care about the poll internals.

karenhasfreedom on October 25, 2012 at 4:30 PM

How can you disenfranchise someone in a poll?

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Because racism. Obviously.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Ohio:

2008:

Absentee ballots requested: 1,354,044
AB returned: 705,237
Democrats returned: 445,985 (63.2%)
Republicans returned: 259,252 (36.8%)

In 2008, 52.1% of ballots requested were returned. 63.2% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 36.8% of Republicans did.

2012 (so far):

Absentee ballots requested: 1,132,163
AB returned: 582,310
Democrats have returned: 326,220 (56%)
Republicans returned: 256,090 (44%)

So far, 51.4% of ballots requested have been returned. 56% of those returned have come from registered Democrats. 44% from registered Republicans.

Democrats are down 11.392%.
Republicans are up 19.565%.

That’s a swing of 30.957%.

It is incredibly important to remember that for all of the hype about the much-vaunted Obama GOTV machine in Ohio, fewer votes were cast in 2008 than in 2004. In 2004, 5,627,903 (50.8/48.7/0.3/0.2) total votes, including those for third parties, were cast in Ohio. In 2008, only 5,268,507 ( 51.2/47.2/0.7/0.3) total votes were cast. That’s actually a DECREASE of 6.4%. The fall in voter participation came from Republicans. So, yes, Obama might have a good ground game, but he isn’t running against John McCain and a demoralised and depressed Republican base this year.

Further, Obama’s crutch counties, with the exception of Lake, have seen a decrease in the number of registered voters after ineligible voters, duplicate registrations, and movers were struck from the rolls earlier this year. With the exodus of thousands from the urban areas to the suburbs and exurbs, the Democratic strongholds in urban areas have lost considerable numbers of votes and Democratic votes that have moved are diluted by the overwhelming Republican advantage in those areas.

If Millenials do not turnout for Obama, he cannot overcome the 16-point swing in Independents, the increase in men against him, and the decrease if the women’s gap.

Lastly, it is also of note that support and enthusiasm for the GOP has increased by 20 points in the last month, according to Pew, and is now at 73% — the highest ever. Polls using 2008 or better turnout models are not only optimistic, they are delusional.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:32 PM

“Just heard Lunz on Hannity. He thinks Obama takes WI and OH because he continues to lead in the polls. Guess he doesn’t care about the poll internals.

karenhasfreedom on October 25, 2012 at 4:30 PM”

Did you happen to listen to Limbaugh today? It sounded like it could have been a show from 08. Rush said the e-mails were pessimistic and he sounded defeated.

And all it would take to rev up the GOP’ers would be a good poll out of Ohio. But it will never come.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Obama may have done poorly in the debates, and step on his message in extemporaneous conversations, but on the stump Obama is formidable

Child, please. On the stump, Obama is a spastic chimp, barking inanities and insulting his opponent like the partisan twit he is. And who, exactly, is witnessing this juvenile stump act? Why…his true believers and no one else.

His stump junk won’t buy him a single vote…it’s all for the base turnout.

Jaibones on October 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM

How can you disenfranchise someone in a poll?

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

By telling them they will actually have to vote…

Seven Percent Solution on October 25, 2012 at 4:38 PM

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Blatentblue is a Conservative. He’s been here a long time.

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 4:38 PM

We recognize they circumvented the normal bk process. They screwed the bond holders and handed the companies to the union using taxpayer money to fully fund the union pensions but screwed the non-union workers out of their pensions.

Correct. Just ask Delphi workers.

The suppliers were hit hard by Obama giving away money to the Unions.

They won’t forget.

GadsdenRattlers on October 25, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Did you happen to listen to Limbaugh today? It sounded like it could have been a show from 08. Rush said the e-mails were pessimistic and he sounded defeated.

And all it would take to rev up the GOP’ers would be a good poll out of Ohio. But it will never come.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

I don’t know what show you were listening to. Rush was upbeat and optimistic. As are all of us.

Romney Will Win.

Joe Mama on October 25, 2012 at 4:39 PM

“So far, 51.4% of ballots requested have been returned. 56% of those returned have come from registered Democrats. 44% from registered Republicans.”

That’s still a rotten number for Romney.

If he truly has a good GOTV operation in OH, why isnt’ he at parity with Obama’s early vote totals?

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation why he’s so far behind (if improved from McCain) if his GOTV is so effective. And door knocks, which was mentioned in the new Romney memo about Ohio, is lame to the extreme and 100% ineffective and meaningless.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Obama is the “better performer“… who cannot perform.

Not the job, at least.

profitsbeard on October 25, 2012 at 4:42 PM

And all it would take to rev up the GOP’ers would be a good poll out of Ohio. But it will never come.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

It has come. It is clear that Romney is going to win Ohio. Obama can’t overcome the independents deficit with a fake +5 D poll or fake 25% early voting. You are pretty delusional.

But, I would love to have your job. How much does the DNC pay people to troll these days? I’d be willing to do it. I wonder if the GOP is paying people to troll the lefty websites? That would be a fun job.

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:42 PM

“I don’t know what show you were listening to. Rush was upbeat and optimistic. As are all of us.

Romney Will Win.

Joe Mama on October 25, 2012 at 4:39 PM”

He devoted an entire segment after his first caller about all the negative (I’d call them realistic) e-mails he’s getting from people thinking Romney can’t/won’t win.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Herp Derp gumby still stupid.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I love how Ed calls a 3 point lead a virtual tie.

I really hope that if O wins Ed will give up poll interpretation for good. He’s one of the original “unskewers.”

red_herring on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Umm, it’s pretty common to call a poll result that is within the poll’s margin of error a virtual tie. When a poll admits it’s margin of error is +/- 4%, a poll result showing one party ahead but within the margin of error is considered a virtual tie.

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:44 PM

“It has come. It is clear that Romney is going to win Ohio. Obama can’t overcome the independents deficit with a fake +5 D poll or fake 25% early voting. You are pretty delusional.”

Even Frank Luntz, who polls and focus groups for a living, said Ohio is lost. I suppose he has no clue what he’s talking about, either.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

He devoted an entire segment after his first caller about all the negative (I’d call them realistic) e-mails he’s getting from people thinking Romney can’t/won’t win.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

If you believed Obama was going to win you wouldn’t spend your time here trying to dissuade us from believing Romney will win.

It’s your actions, not your words, that reveal what you truly believe.

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Even Frank Luntz, who polls and focus groups for a living, said Ohio is lost. I suppose he has no clue what he’s talking about, either.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

We will see on election day. Until then, you are the one who feels it is necessary to come here and try and bring down our enthusiasm, meaning you are the one who is worried. Why is that?

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:32 PM

What’s also noteworthy there is the simple difference in raw numbers. 186,733 ballot difference in 2008, compared to 70,130 this year.

The Democrats are currently losing 116,603 votes coming right out the gate. That’s 44% of their 2008 margin of victory just gone, even before the vast majority of voters head to the polls on election day and the shift in Indies are taken into account.

Campaign strategists were saying that Obama needs to run up a gap of 100,000 ballots in Iowa early voting in order to take that state. They don’t even have that here in a state with 4 times the voters….

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Hey, RuPoll, before I answer any of your questions, let’s hear you explain your erroneous projections…ONCE AGAIN. I refer to:

1.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Rasmussen Today:

Romney: 50

Obama: 47

No change

2.

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 50
Obama: 47

No change.

Obama approval -2
Obama disapproval +2

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Campaign strategists were saying that Obama needs to run up a gap of 100,000 ballots in Iowa early voting in order to take that state. They don’t even have that here in a state with 4 times the voters….

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

While I was gathering data for my post, Ohio, By The Numbers, I stumbled across these numbers:

* Registered Republicans: 622,176 (2 Oct)

* Registered Democrats: 611,284 (2 Oct)

* Registered “No Party”: 675,171 (2 Oct)

* There were 576,000 Registered Republicans in 2008.

* Republicans are now up +46,176.

* There were 698,839 Registered Democrats in November 2008.

* Democrats are now down -87,555.

* Obama beat McCain in Iowa by 146,000 votes.

* Since 2011, 77,800 Democrats have disappeared from the Iowa registration rolls with 48,800 of them coming since the beginning of 2012.

* In 2004, there were 85,000 more Democrats registered, but Bush beat Kerry by 10,000.

The key for Iowa is going to be turnout in the suburbs and in the eastern part of the state. Independents are also more likely to tip in favour of Romney, according to the DMR, because of immigration issues. There are 44,000 registered Hispanic voters in the Des Moines area.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

“Gallup Today:

Romney: 50
Obama: 47

No change.”

Yep, was wrong about Gallup and Ras today.

Now, please answer my question as to if Romney’s GOTV was doing well, that he’s still way behind in early voting? Why can’t he equal Obama in early voting?

Is it lack of enthusiasm? Poor campaign work? Too busy pointlessly knocking on doors so they can brag about “voter contacts” that don’t translate into votes?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:55 PM

What’s also noteworthy there is the simple difference in raw numbers. 186,733 ballot difference in 2008, compared to 70,130 this year.

The Democrats are currently losing 116,603 votes coming right out the gate. That’s 44% of their 2008 margin of victory just gone, even before the vast majority of voters head to the polls on election day and the shift in Indies are taken into account.

Yep. The Republicans have greatly improved their absentee ballot request and return numbers. In contrast, Democrats are underperforming in a substantial numbers of counties compared to their effort in 2008. McCain actually won Ohio on Election Day; nevertheless, Obama won the state and its electoral votes because of the votes he had already banked through early voting. It is quite apparent from the data gathered from the Secretary of State’s office and local election boards that his bank will not be nearly as full as it was 4 years ago.

Cuyahoga County gave Obama a 258,542 vote victory margin. Of that 258,542, 130,000 votes came from absentee ballots. Cuyahoga was critical to Obama’s victory. As of today, he is running at 61.5% of what he did in Cuyahoga in 2008 (Democrats — have returned 130,175 absentee ballots, the Republicans have returned 50,667, and the differential is 79,508). Obama cannot afford to be 80,000 votes off in Cuyahoga County this year because he is getting killed in other counties where some roles have reversed in addition to Democrats being off 50%.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:56 PM

The plane, the plane

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 4:59 PM

It is incredibly important to remember that for all of the hype about the much-vaunted Obama GOTV machine in Ohio, fewer votes were cast in 2008 than in 2004. In 2004, 5,627,903 (50.8/48.7/0.3/0.2) total votes, including those for third parties, were cast in Ohio. In 2008, only 5,268,507 ( 51.2/47.2/0.7/0.3) total votes were cast. That’s actually a DECREASE of 6.4%. The fall in voter participation came from Republicans. So, yes, Obama might have a good ground game, but he isn’t running against John McCain and a demoralised and depressed Republican base this year.

Where are you getting those numbers? Obama and McCain combined received 5,617,864 votes, per Wikipedia.

Ohio in 2008

JenWestin on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Now, please answer my question as to if Romney’s GOTV was doing well, that he’s still way behind in early voting? Why can’t he equal Obama in early voting?

Is it lack of enthusiasm? Poor campaign work? Too busy pointlessly knocking on doors so they can brag about “voter contacts” that don’t translate into votes?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day. They have greatly increased their early voting, but you put too much stock in it. If Republicans turnout in their 2004 numbers, Obama is in serious trouble, if not defeated easily. Using 2008 turnout numbers is asinine.

As I have repeatedly said on this site, I am neither a Republican nor a Conservative. I am not even a Romney fan. I am a libertarian and registered independent, who lives in a very deep blue state; yet, I can’t wait to vote against Barack Obama on 6 November 2012. In fact, I will crawl over broken glass to do it.

Underestimate the laserlike-focus and determination of people like me at your own peril. You do not have to worry about us getting drunk at a frat party the night before the election. We will be there bright and early and wait in line all day, if necessary. We, literally, can’t wait.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Close enough for them to steal it, though. Bank on boxes of ballots turning up in ‘unexpected’ places until they have enough to win it.

Midas on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

“Obama won the state and its electoral votes because of the votes he had already banked through early voting. It is quite apparent from the data gathered from the Secretary of State’s office and local election boards that his bank will not be nearly as full as it was 4 years ago.”

What a pile of nonsense, lol.

So what if the margin isn’t as great as 08. He’s still destroying Romney in early voting/GOTV not just in Ohio, but in Nevada and Iowa, as well.

If there was truly a big enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP this year, you would see Romney leading, or at least tied, with Obama in early voting.

You are spinning your wheels as badly as that awful Romney memo released today trying to sugarcoat the bad early results.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Obama and McCain combined received 5,617,864 votes, per Wikipedia.

JenWestin on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

USA Today citing the Ohio Secretary of State’s office.

Did you know that Rush Limbaugh died?

Did you know that Tony Blair covered his bedroom walls with posters of Hitler as a teenager?

Did you know that David Beckham was a Chinese goalkeeper in the 18th century?

Did you know that singer, Robbie Williams, earns his millions eating pet hamsters?

Did you know that former Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, made surprise visits to Ilford instead of Iraq?

Did you know that Teddy Kennedy died at the inauguration luncheon and it was his doppleganger that was buried in Arlington National Cemetery?

Did you know that Robert Byrd, after saying goodbye to his friend, Teddy Kennedy, collapsed and died in the Capitol Rotunda following the inauguration luncheon?

Did you know that John Seigenthaler Sr., who was the assistant to Attorney General Robert Kennedy in the early 1960′s, was thought to have been directly involved in the Kennedy assassinations of both John, and his brother, Bobby?

The above are just a few of the more egregious errors that have been on wiki pages.

In 2007, the New York Times had a big article about how error-laden wikipedia is and how college professors refuse to allow it as a source. Citing wikipedia is the sign of a lazy researcher.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Either I misunderstood or you misunderstood. I took blatantblue to be a liberal based on username. But if that is incorrect, I apologize to both of you.

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 4:27 PM

BB is young and a musician/artist.

You’d think he’d be a liberal, but it just goes to show you they ain’t all stupid.

Lanceman on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

What a pile of nonsense, lol.

So what if the margin isn’t as great as 08. He’s still destroying Romney in early voting/GOTV not just in Ohio, but in Nevada and Iowa, as well.

If there was truly a big enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP this year, you would see Romney leading, or at least tied, with Obama in early voting.

You are spinning your wheels as badly as that awful Romney memo released today trying to sugarcoat the bad early results.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

We are talking about Ohio. McCain beat Obama on election day with a depressed electorate. It was Obama’s banked votes that ultimately carried Ohio for him. Are you honestly going to argue that he can go into election day, safely, with a significantly reduced margin?

Thus far, 574,331 Democrats and Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 56% (322,647) of the returned ballots came from Democrats and 44% (251,684) have come from Republicans. That’s a 70,963 differential, which is substantially lower, as of today, than it was in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day. They have greatly increased their early voting, but you put too much stock in it. If Republicans turnout in their 2004 numbers, Obama is in serious trouble, if not defeated easily. Using 2008 turnout numbers is asinine.

As I have repeatedly said on this site, I am neither a Republican nor a Conservative. I am not even a Romney fan. I am a libertarian and registered independent, who lives in a very deep blue state; yet, I can’t wait to vote against Barack Obama on 6 November 2012. In fact, I will crawl over broken glass to do it.

Underestimate the laserlike-focus and determination of people like me at your own peril. You do not have to worry about us getting drunk at a frat party the night before the election. We will be there bright and early and wait in line all day, if necessary. We, literally, can’t wait.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Yea, you got that right! Do not underestimate ABO (Anybody But Obama) vote and it is dedicated.

Mark

mailmars on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Even Frank Luntz, who polls and focus groups for a living, said Ohio is lost. I suppose he has no clue what he’s talking about, either.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Funny, I was listening to him on Hannity and he didn’t say that Ohio was lost.

Nor did Rush sound depressed today.

Keep spinning, Moby.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Good info. I had read of the shift in Iowa’s registrations, so it’s good to see the numbers laid out like that. Adds up to more than 90% of Barry’s 2008 margin of victory. That’s not a lot of breathing room for him to relax and hope the Indies don’t break too hard.

Gray says all signs show Iowa looking like 2004. Even playing it as ridiculously safe as possible, the numbers add up to Romney taking a few thousand vote squeaker.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Resist We Much, stop feeding the trolls. it’s not good for their digestive system. The truth hurts!

WV. Paul on October 25, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Close enough for them to steal it, though. Bank on boxes of ballots turning up in ‘unexpected’ places until they have enough to win it.

Midas on October 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Fortunatley the Dems no long have Jennifer Brunner in the Sec of State office to do it. She was part of the Dem strategy in 2006 to focus on swing state Sec of State’s since they run elections. Like Stalin said, it doesn’t matter who votes but who counts the votes.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 5:21 PM

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation why he’s so far behind (if improved from McCain) if his GOTV is so effective. And door knocks, which was mentioned in the new Romney memo about Ohio, is lame to the extreme and 100% ineffective and meaningless.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:41 PM

You harped about this with Walker too. You were wrong. By the way, did you ever answer all of wargamer6′s questions about all your failed predictions? Nope, I didn’t think so.

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Funny, I was listening to him on Hannity and he didn’t say that Ohio was lost.

Nor did Rush sound depressed today.

Keep spinning, Moby.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Yeah all Rush was saying is that he doesn’t want to sound too optimistic because he doesn’t want anyone to get over confident.

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:25 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Funny, I was listening to him on Hannity and he didn’t say that Ohio was lost.

Nor did Rush sound depressed today.

Keep spinning, Moby.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:10 PM

So gumbypoked lied. What else is new?

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 5:34 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:32 PM

We have certainly heard your prediction over and over and over again. Too bad self-fulfilling prophecies don’t work for elections.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 5:36 PM

If there was truly a big enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP this year, you would see Romney leading, or at least tied, with Obama in early voting.

gumbyandpokey

Just because you insist on making assumptions with no basis in reality doesn’t make them true.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

when I hear about the Democrat ground game or early voting it reminds of the GOP in 2006, this supposedly awesome GOTV machine would blunt the Dem Wave, it never happened and here is the secret. Great ground games are a reflection of energy, they don’t cause the energy. IN this election the juice is on our side.

rob verdi on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Interesting internal from the ABC/Wash Post tracker…

==only 83% of Conservatives support Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:44 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:32 PM

He said that Romney would win the popular vote and that he was watching Ohio and Wisconsin. He said that Obama has an edge based on 2008, but that it is not in the bag for him and that a lot will depend upon turnout. He doesn’t expect Obama to replicate 2008 turnout or for Republicans to have depressed turnout as they did in 2008. He said that it will be very close and could go either way at this point.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Just because you insist on making assumptions with no basis in reality doesn’t make them true.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Interesting how he turns an increase in Republican absentees and a decrease in Democratic absentees into a negative for Romney.

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation why he’s so far behind (if improved from McCain) if his GOTV is so effective.

One would think that effectiveness would include turning out more absentee ballots than the previous election. I for one, would call that effective.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Interesting internal from the ABC/Wash Post tracker…

==only 83% of Conservatives support Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Tell me something,and actually answer rather than scurrying off into your little rat hole.

Polls come out all the time that favor Romney, both over all in the internals, you never post those and point out how well Romney is doing.

Why would that be, do you think? Could it be because you have an agenda? Do you think we don’t see that?

ShadowsPawn on October 25, 2012 at 5:54 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:32 PM

“I hear voices…”

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:55 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey

Was that Luntz or the voices in your head?

By the way, Obama WILL win Wisconsin. But then, he’s supposed to win Wisconsin. The fact that it’s even close there is a testament to how sorry Obama is. As sorry as he is though, it won’t be enough to give the state to a republican presidential candidate.

Ohio on the other hand, is up for grabs. It can go either way at this point. If Romney carries Ohio, he’ll be the next president. If he doesn’t, it’s 4 more years of Obama, and things are pretty much over for this country.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 5:58 PM

“I hear voices…”

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Good. It’s not just me then….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Joe Mama on October 25, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Maybe gumby was listening to Hannity instead of Rush. Sean sounded worried especially about Ohio. He brought me down- couldn’t listen to him.

wolverinefan on October 25, 2012 at 6:00 PM

“Interesting internal from the ABC/Wash Post tracker…”

D+4

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?

Obama: 43 (-1)

Romney: 52 (+2)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling international affairs?

Obama: 48 (-1)

Romney: 47 (+1)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job advancing the interests of the middle class?

Obama: 50 (-3)

Romney: 45 (+7)

Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having?

Obama: 48 (-2)

Romney: 48 (+2)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

Somewhat Approve: 18 (-3)

Somewhat Disapprove: 9 (-1)

Strongly Approve: 30 (+1)

Strongly Disapprove: 41 (+3)

Oh, and let’s look at early voting stats since RuPoll says that they mean the game:

Do you think you’ll (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?

Vote in person: 62
Early voting/in person: 29
Already voted: 8
No opinion: 1

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121024.html

You’ll notice that they do NOT break down voters into conservatives, liberals, libertarians, and moderates.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Romney can’t/won’t win

.
gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM
If you believed Obama was going to win you wouldn’t spend your time here trying to dissuade us from believing Romney will win.
It’s your actions, not your words, that reveal what you truly believe.
Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Of course Romney has the edge in Ohio and elsewhere.. That is why liberals like GumbyandPokey are so worried and spend so much time trying to convince us not to vote. GumbyandPokey did the same thing on FreeRepublic and on Ace’s site. In fact, apparently he was already banned from Ace’s site and a few other places. Just google his screen name to see his long history of attempting to demoralize Republicans on these sites. Yes, he totally lied about Luntz and Rush. Of course neither said anything remotely like what Gumby described. The sinking feeling Gumbyandpokey had when he watched Walker win the WI recall election is going to be exactly how he’ll feel the night of November 6. Imagine how he’ll feel when he realizes that all those many hours

bluegill on October 25, 2012 at 6:02 PM

…(continued from above) of his life that he spent bashing Romney on here were all for naught. Poor guy. He needs to get a new hobby or maybe just get a life.

bluegill on October 25, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I was watching Fox and they showed the Obama people busing the Ohio State University students to the polls! The bus was full-of course it could have only been one bus but I doubt it. I hope the GOP is doing the same.

wolverinefan on October 25, 2012 at 6:06 PM

So nobody else heard Luntz say Obama would win OH and WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Listened to the whole interview. He NEVER said that or anything like that. Voices in your head, maybe? Wish-casting? Desperation? You’re lying. Haven’t you heard? “Trust matters.”

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Interesting how he turns an increase in Republican absentees and a decrease in Democratic absentees into a negative for Romney.

weaselyone

And the reality is his premise is just wrong. Democrats in Ohio vote early while Republicans prefer election day voting, so there’s nothing unusual about there being more democrat early votes. If Romney were tied or leading in early voting as gumbo insists he should be, Romney would be on his way to enjoying possibly the most lopsided, landslide victory in Ohio election history. No one is expecting that, and furthermore, it’s not necessary.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Ha ha ha. After this WaPo/ABC earthquake of a poll dropped, John Podhoretz tweets:

And Nate Silver switches back to state polls.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:25 PM

I was watching Fox and they showed the Obama people busing the Ohio State University students to the polls! The bus was full-of course it could have only been one bus but I doubt it. I hope the GOP is doing the same.

wolverinefan on October 25, 2012 at 6:06 PM

They do that every year. I did see a story a few weeks ago about how the dems weren’t having the success they had in 2008. That may have changed in the last couple weeks but either way the complete madness over Obama at OSU isn’t there. I was attending OSU at the time, whenever Obama showed up it was like being in North Korea when Dear Leader makes an appearance. I hope to never see that again in this country.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 6:25 PM

I listened to the whole Luntz interview and he NEVER said Ohio is lost!!!!!LOL…LIAR,LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE!!!!hahahahahahah@gumbyandpokey

sweet92169 on October 25, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Umm, it’s pretty common to call a poll result that is within the poll’s margin of error a virtual tie. When a poll admits it’s margin of error is +/- 4%, a poll result showing one party ahead but within the margin of error is considered a virtual tie.
Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 4:44 PM

that doesn’t mean it’s correct. A 3% lead with a 4%MOE = 77% chance of winning.

red_herring on October 25, 2012 at 6:35 PM

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 6:25 PM

You’re right-Fox just showed the OSU campus and interviewed some students. They are aware the jobs won’t be there when they graduate. Hopefully that will be enough of an incentive to vote Romney!

wolverinefan on October 25, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Anyone need a ride to the polls on Nov 6? Because Gumby said that Obama’s awesome GOTV effort will be giving rides that day.

Mitsouko on October 25, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Forgive me if I’m repeating someone, but could this just all be bogus? All we hear about from the media right now is Ohio! Ohio! Ohio!

But with such a high oversampling of Dems (by how many polls?) couldn’t this just be the media trying to get Romney to play for a single state rather than branching out on the battle map?

roopster217 on October 25, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012

Question re: Early ballot #s v.s. vote counts (since we won’t know votes till election night).

Could Ohio have enough registered Dems who bought into the hype in 2008 but are now voting early for R&R? Is that a factor at all? If EV Dems are being polled, they may not want to admit they voted R&R.
(??)

darlus on October 25, 2012 at 6:38 PM

So since Obama will be routing for Detroit in the series, should Romney route for Ohio State?

What do you say wolverinefan?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Anyone need a ride to the polls on Nov 6? Because Gumby said that Obama’s awesome GOTV effort will be giving rides that day.

Mitsouko on October 25, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Sure I could.

I’m a voter in NY, so I expect Obama’s team will be more than happy to send me to Ohio, provided they don’t notice my party registration.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 6:40 PM

In fact wouldn’t be best for Romney to be seen sporting an Ohio State t-shirt and say something like: “Go whoop that Michigan team.” ?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Question re: Early ballot #s v.s. vote counts (since we won’t know votes till election night).

Could Ohio have enough registered Dems who bought into the hype in 2008 but are now voting early for R&R? Is that a factor at all? If EV Dems are being polled, they may not want to admit they voted R&R.
(??)

darlus on October 25, 2012 at 6:38 PM

What if 100% of Dems who are going to vote vote early? Will it change the total? The total is the total is the total. No votes are added because of early voting, there just early.

What if 100% of Republicans that are going to vote, vote on Nov. 6? If there are more in total then we win. They don’t count for more if they are early, they don’t count for less if they are on election day.

You can make a case that convenience might drive up turnout, but why wouldn’t it drive up turnout both ways?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I guess Gumby didn’t listen to the caller on Rush’s show named Gina. She was incredibly excited and it was very contagious. She went on at length about attending the Red Rocks rally in Colorado and how folks had to hike 2.5 miles uphill to get to the amphitheater and she saw lots of elderly folks there who did it. She also said the highway was a parking lot for miles with folks trying to get there who couldn’t. The twitter pics on the internet confirmed the size of the crowd.

txmomof6 on October 25, 2012 at 7:13 PM

The lying trolls are out to ruin your threads, Hot Air.

If you’re not going to do anything about it, there ARE other websites.

Adjoran on October 25, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Did you happen to listen to Limbaugh today? It sounded like it could have been a show from 08. Rush said the e-mails were pessimistic and he sounded defeated.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Gumbo, you really expect anyone to believe that you listened to Rush today? Seriously?

BigAlSouth on October 25, 2012 at 8:12 PM

… more jobs were lost than saved when you consider all of the forced dealership closings when franchise agreements were voided in the bk.. Many of those dealerships were in their third generation of ownership and poof, overnight they were wiped out with dozens of lost jobs at each dealership. …

karenhasfreedom on October 25, 2012 at 4:30 PM

You just described the landscape of southern California. Most of those dealerships are still boarded up with weeds growing out of the cracks in the parking lot and graffiti on the sides of the buildings.

A few are being redeveloped as mini-malls — yeah, like we need any more of those! Most of the existing mini-malls around here have at least one or two boarded-up storefronts, and a few have shut down altogether. I’m not a fan of mini-malls in general, but I respect anyone who has the gumption to run a small business.

And every time I drive past one of those sad corpses of dead businesses, I damn Obama to Hell with a heart full of fury. (May God forgive me…)

Mary in LA on October 25, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Sorry Gum ball, Luntz never, ever declared Ohio for Obama. If you’re going to straight out lie, you really should be banned. We here enough of the lies from the current administration, don’t need to come here to a conservative website and listen to your desperate drivel.

Obama hasn’t budged from 47% and Romney continues good momentum EVERYWHERE. Simply put, if this holds until 11/6, we’re sending Obama on a boat to Hawaii.

UpTheCreek on October 25, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Oops, here=hear!

UpTheCreek on October 25, 2012 at 8:32 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:41 PM

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

avagreen on October 25, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Mary in LA on October 25, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Glad that I’m not the only one.

Womens are fearful when angry. He’d better watch out…
(͡๏̯͡๏

avagreen on October 25, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Thus far, 574,331 Democrats and Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 56% (322,647) of the returned ballots came from Democrats and 44% (251,684) have come from Republicans. That’s a 70,963 differential, which is substantially lower, as of today, than it was in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Not only that, but there is much more reason to suppose that Democrat voters will cross over and vote for Romney than Republican voters will cross over for Obama. The opposite of 2008, thanks to how the spirit of Hope’n Change has now morphed into Hope’e Leaves.

Lily on October 25, 2012 at 9:27 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Republicans are largely traditionalists and traditionalists go to the polls on Election Day. If the Democrats ever aren’t killing in early voting then they’re in serious trouble.

alchemist19 on October 25, 2012 at 9:30 PM

To gumby and pokey
We kicked Strickland out (Democrats broke for Kasich)
We’re going to do the same to BO. You don’t know how pissed off we truly are.

elclynn on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Could Ohio have enough registered Dems who bought into the hype in 2008 but are now voting early for R&R? Is that a factor at all? If EV Dems are being polled, they may not want to admit they voted R&R.
(??)

darlus on October 25, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Like I said to gumbyandpokey, “you don’t know how pi**ed some of the Dems are”.

elclynn on October 25, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Like I said to gumbyandpokey, “you don’t know how pi**ed some of the Dems are”.

elclynn on October 25, 2012 at 11:11 PM

That’s exactly what I was trying to figure out (hoping for) with my earlier questions. I’ll call it, ‘The pi**ed off factor‘. Would be interesting (to me) to know since each side assumes the EVing benefits them.

darlus on October 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM

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