Magic gone in Ohio?

posted at 1:21 pm on October 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In 2008, Barack Obama campaigned like a rock star, especially in places hard hit by the economy, like Ohio — which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout.  Four years later, the rock-star vibe has utterly faded, and the campaign has turned into a grind for Team Obama as they dig up every vote they can find to try to hold off a resurgent Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State.  Byron York describes it as “the magic is gone”:

Messina is particularly focused on what are called low-propensity or sporadic voters — that is, voters who can’t be relied on to show up at the polls regularly, who might or might not make it to vote on Election Day.  If Obama can bank their votes early, he won’t have to worry about them on November 6.  “Sporadic voters matter,” Messina explained.  “It can’t just be about getting your traditional Democrats to vote early. If that were the case, then we’d be wasting our time and money.  This is about increasing the overall share of people who may be drop-off voters…”

So far, there are indications the Obama/Messina plan is making progress.  In the latest Rasmussen poll, released Wednesday, which showed the race in Ohio locked in a 48-48 tie, Obama led among early voters by ten percentage points.  The problem is, that’s less of a lead than Obama had among early voters in 2008.  So now, the president is frantically pursuing all those sporadic voters out there, begging them to cast a ballot early.

That’s the essence of the Obama re-election effort less than two weeks from Election Day.  Team Obama knows the campaign doesn’t have the magic it had in 2008.  Crowds are enthusiastic, but not over-the-top enthusiastic.  Obama’s strategy is to make up the excitement gap by just grinding it out, doing the organizational work of getting the people most likely to support the president — blacks, Latinos, women, the young — to vote early.  By doing so, he hopes to build up a sufficient bank of votes to prevail over Romney on November 6.  It’s the no-magic campaign.

But it’s not all magic, as York reminds us.  Obama may have done poorly in the debates, and step on his message in extemporaneous conversations, but on the stump Obama is formidable:

One fact that seems sometimes lost in the obsession with early voting and the ground game is that Obama remains a very, very good campaigner.  Certainly at Triangle Park he delivered what could only be called an extraordinarily polished performance. In recent days the Romney campaign has characterized the president’s stump speeches as “increasingly desperate.”  Perhaps that’s true, but the fact is, Obama is still an impressively effective campaigner when it comes to delivering speeches at old-fashioned political rallies. Comparing Romney and Obama on the stump is no contest.  Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Yesterday, Time Magazine released a poll in Ohio showing Obama up by 5, 49/44, but the sample was D+9, with lower Republican turnout than in 2008.  No one took it seriously, including Chuck Todd — and as he reports, neither of the campaigns did either:

Let’s take a look at a poll that went largely unremarked yesterday.  Survey USA polled 609 likely and actual voters (those who have already cast ballots) in Ohio and found the race in a virtual tie, 47/44 for Obama, and found the same in the Senate race, with Republican challenger Josh Mandel just one point behind Sherrod Brown, 42/43.  The sample is also a little suspect at D+7 (39/32/25), but the internals are interesting in the presidential race:

  • Gender gap is Obama +5 overall (-7 among men, +12 among women).  In 2008, Obama was +11 in the gender gap (+3 men, +8 women).
  • Romney leads among independents by 8.  In 2008, Obama won them by 8 — a 16-point flip in the gap.  Furthermore, Obama only gets to 39% in this demo.  Late breaking deciders usually go for the challenger, especially in poor economic conditions, which means Romney has a pretty good chance of getting a double-digit advantage among independents.
  • Obama beats Romney 2-1 among 18-34YOs (58/29), but Romney wins two of the three other demos and ties among 50-64YOs at 46%.  Again, late deciders will probably break toward Romney, but the younger voters seem to be somewhat oversampled here too, although the exit polling doesn’t exactly line up with Survey USA’s categories.  Voters 44 and under accounted for 41% of the Ohio vote in 2008, but voters 49 and below account for 49% of Survey USA’s respondents.

It’s a razor-close race in Ohio, but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Can’t see the Chuck Todd video where I am but if its the one from yesterdays Moaning Joe that was an eye opener. Made my morning even.

Anybody catch Rush’s absolute takedown of the media yesterday re: Benghazi? “This is like Woodward and Bernstein burying the Watergate story”.

DanMan on October 25, 2012 at 1:58 PM

OT, but good news: the NYT Company, propagandists to the stars, reported declining revenues, declining ads, declining operating profits, bigger loss and lots of other really excellent negative stuff today.

If the President loses, that’s good. If the GOP takes the Seante, that’s going to be really good. But if the NYT goes beneath the waves for the third time, that’s going to be outstanding.

MTF on October 25, 2012 at 1:55 PM

“All the news we can no longer print”

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Well shoot I had a great post with all sorts of pictures that went bye-bye.

Needless to say Romney’s magic was alive and well.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Obama on Mourdock: Male politicians shouldn’t make abortion decisions

So what else should “MALE” politicians not decide?


How stupid are we that this man has polled over 25%?

PappyD61 on October 25, 2012 at 1:59 PM

And, in Toledo, the prospect of General Motors/Chrysler/Fiat…recipient of a huge bailout, and a regular backdrop for Obama to tout his “saving” the auto industry, is looking to move Jeep production to China .

After all of Obama’s visits to Toledo (Biden, too) and their extolling the virtues of unions and bailouts and condemning all who would send jobs overseas…

Well…Mr. Obama…got anything to say?

Well, got anything relevant to say?

Putz.

coldwarrior on October 25, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Obama is running a limp pen!s campaign. He can get it up for a speech, but can’t perform over the long haul.

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 2:00 PM

OT, but good news: the NYT Company, propagandists to the stars, reported declining revenues, declining ads, declining operating profits, bigger loss and lots of other really excellent negative stuff today.

If the President loses, that’s good. If the GOP takes the Seante, that’s going to be really good. But if the NYT goes beneath the waves for the third time, that’s going to be outstanding.

MTF on October 25, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Did they blame it on Bush?

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 2:00 PM

DKossers are still claiming that Obama will win Virginia, they are playing the same numbers games as we are and saying the same “the polls don’t matter” thing. I wonder if they are simply delusional or is it a conscious effort to not deflate their base.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Thanks…. i knew provisional couldn’t be counted until afterwards but didn’t known about absentee in Ohio

cmsinaz on October 25, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Ed, you’re killing me. Missed it by that much.

Magic gone in Ohio? = The thrill is gone.

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 2:02 PM

TarheelBen on October 25, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Excellent post.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 2:03 PM

People across the Nation would be aghast at what we Pennsylvanians
call the Life forms from the Buckeye State.

Yeah, I knew a girl from there once….so Fugly, she scared
Amish People….AND their horses.

ToddPA on October 25, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Nah, you’re mistaken. Michelle isn’t from there, she’s just been campaigning there a lot with her husband.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Damn good response! This buckeye salutes you!

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Is that you, Nigel?

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 1:52 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH……. ROTFLMAO… I knew turning it up to eleven would give the whole gig away… ;p

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

IBD/TIPP (D+7): Obama +3

BBL. :-)

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 1:40 PM

TIPP just dropped back to O+2% and they’re still Dem +7%.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Poor Mika sure did look all butthurt when she threw it to Upchuck.

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I wonder if they are simply delusional or is it a conscious effort to not deflate their base.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:01 PM

They just can’t do math.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I’m lovin’ it. The Trolls must be on a conference call with “The Rod”.
Man the Lifeboats! Aaahooogha!

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

DKossers are still claiming that Obama will win Virginia, they are playing the same numbers games as we are and saying the same “the polls don’t matter” thing. I wonder if they are simply delusional or is it a conscious effort to not deflate their base.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:01 PM

I wouldn’t know as Donald Trump couldn’t go on Youtube and dare me wth enough money to log onto that site, but what is their rationale for saying the polls are crap?

The numbers are what they are. Decreased absentee counts that Democrats need. Increased turnout in Republican areas in VA and CO. The consistent break of independents toward Romney. There is a fair case that the turnout will be far less Democrat than what the polls are trying to argue. How does one take a tie in a D+7 poll and argue that it’s overstating Romney?

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

The rest of Ohio is gradually figuring out that “Joe the Plumber” was right.

listens2glenn on October 25, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Well shoot I had a great post with all sorts of pictures that went bye-bye.

Needless to say Romney’s magic was alive and well.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Might I suggest for the future you consider Lazarus for Firefox…

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Well shoot I had a great post with all sorts of pictures that went bye-bye.

Needless to say Romney’s magic was alive and well.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 1:59 PM

They showed up at the end of the first page.

Thanks picture lady, they were great!

JPeterman on October 25, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Cuyahoga is probably the most likely to have wide-spread cheating in the vote tallying. GOP will be watching it closely.

Bitter Clinger

Hopefully they get good poll watchers. If they do, they’ll spot it out and be able to alert Romney HQ ASAP without even leaving the polling place.

Zaggs on October 25, 2012 at 2:10 PM

we will win NH, OH, NC, VA, CO, and MI

blatantblue on October 25, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Don’t forget FL!

changer1701 on October 25, 2012 at 2:11 PM

BREAKING:

Alec Baldwin fires real estate agent in France, contacts leading realty agency in Singapore; reports say looking for a quick close.

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 1:35 PM


..and, as we all know, he knows all about the real estate business, doesn’t he.

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Ohio is scaring the crap out of me. I won’t deny it.

lorien1973 on October 25, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Well, from the heart of Ohio, I have to tell you that all the momentum is behind Romney. While I doubted his strategy in the last two debates, I have to admit that I think its been working just as well as the first debate did. The negative ads of Obama have stopped registering and people have become numb to them. The positive message that Romney presents is what is winning. There are a lot of people who are hungry to jumpstart the economy, and are just waiting for the winds to finally change.

Yes, it will probably be close as they report it… but I don’t think the results will be close enough to dispute… and Romney will take Ohio.

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Hopefully they get good poll watchers. If they do, they’ll spot it out and be able to alert Romney HQ ASAP without even leaving the polling place.

Zaggs on October 25, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Its not that hard to spot buses pulling up to voting places, especially with IL license plates.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Well, waddya know.
The price of gas has plunged dramatically in the election’s most important state, just in time for November.
What a coincidence.

http://www.ohiogasprices.com/Retail_Price_Chart.aspx

itsnotaboutme on October 25, 2012 at 2:13 PM

They just can’t do math.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Neither can their messiah. On Leno last night Barky admits math after the seventh grade level then he is pretty lost

And this man is our President, sheeeesh!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 2:13 PM

we will win NH, OH, NC, VA, CO, and MI

blatantblue on October 25, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Hey guys! Another comment to save for after the election! Someone grab it now!

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:14 PM

The heavy juicing of the democrat party is to keep the bottom of the democrat base from falling out and not republican suppression as most think.

If Obama were doing well anywhere, the local and federal democrat party members running for office would be up on the stage with him.

jukin3 on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Gingotts,
Here’s what Kos is saying about Virginia early voting:

In reality, the number of ballots from Democratic areas are actually up from 2008, from 145,673 to 152,084. Does that sound like a drop in Democratic intensity?

At the same time, Republicans areas are up from 80,881 to 95,744. That’s a bigger increase, percentage-wise (hence Wasserman’s constant refrains about Democrats being “down”, when they’re actually not), but the difference, in raw votes, is just 8,000 votes or so. Given that Obama won the state in 2008 by about 230,000 votes, Republicans are going to have to do much better than that.

And it should be obvious that 152,084 is quite a bit more than 95,744. There’s one side winning, and it isn’t the one lagging by 57,000 votes.

Do you think it makes sense? Or are they full of it? It seems to be the same argument we’re using for the Ohio numbers.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Chuck’s probably trying to jockey for a new gig on CNN or Fox.

Oink on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Messina is particularly focused on what are called low-propensity or sporadic voters — that is, voters who can’t be relied on to show up at the polls regularly, who might or might not make it to vote on Election Day. If Obama can bank their votes early, he won’t have to worry about them on November 6.

“All you’ve gotta do is show up and for vote Obama, and you’ll receive a check for $100 and a new i-Phone.”

Dopenstrange on October 25, 2012 at 2:17 PM

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Hey Guys! Another worthless troll has come online!

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Another thing to consider for all the hand wringers worried about voter fraud. In 2000 and 2008 we had a republican secretary of state, Ken Blackwell. Good guy. Bush won. In 2008 we had democrat tool Jennifer Brunner- massive fraud- Obama wins. We have a great republican secretary of state now- John Husted. Good guy. Voter rolls have been cleaned up and they are actively looking for fraud. This cannot be discounted. Jennifer Brunner didn’t even run again. She was a complete fraud herself put there with Soros’s campaign to get democrat control of SOS. Do not be eeyores!!!!

1nolibgal on October 25, 2012 at 2:18 PM

ep. It would be especially sweet if Pennsylvania got called early for Romney. In fact, if Pennsylvania takes a long time to be called, there will be a wide-spread panic on their faces and in their voices.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Pennsylvania:

Obama 51%-Romney 46% (Rasmussen); D+7

Worth a shot.

Bravesbill on October 25, 2012 at 2:19 PM

The ‘Survey’ poll that was D+7 had the Cincinnati region at 45/40 FOR Obama. Really? I would agree that if Obama carries that region it is over. Difficult to believe this will be true.

The ‘Time’ poll was D+9 with a female+6 participation. But then the Toledo AND the Cleveland regions were female+12. Really? Females are going to comprise 56% of the electorate in NE and NW Ohio? Have they been selectively aborting their male babies in those areas?

Carnac on October 25, 2012 at 2:19 PM

They showed up at the end of the first page.

Thanks picture lady, they were great!

JPeterman on October 25, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Oh good – thanks for letting me know.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Byron York sure is a perfect example of the kind of glad-handing, minimize-our-own-side, deferential Beltway GOP establishment type so many of us our so tired of.

Go have a pop with Mitch McConnell at the Capital Grille, Byron. Or, better yet, go find a competent barber.

Right Mover on October 25, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Really? Females are going to comprise 56% of the electorate in NE and NW Ohio? Have they been selectively aborting their male babies in those areas?

Carnac on October 25, 2012 at 2:19 PM

No.

They’ve been imprisoning them.

JohnGalt23 on October 25, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Ohio is being used to create uneasiness in the Republicans and dispirit them in other states. All we have heard in the last few presidential elections is that no Republican has won the WH without winning in Ohio.

They stupidly/blindly/wrongly think that people in other states will not go to the polls if they think Ohio is unwinnable therefore, Romney cannot win, so why bother.

Jvette on October 25, 2012 at 2:28 PM

In 2008, Barack Obama campaigned like a rock star, especially in places hard hit by the economy, like Ohio — which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout.

Obama will not get D+8 in Ohio this time. And he will not win the state. In my opinion the “enthusiasm gap” has swung a 180… Seems to be under reported in my opinion. Obama will lose Ohio.. And the election.
I could write five or more paragraphs on why this will be, but I’m sure most of us already know why. So I won’t tire your eyes..

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 2:28 PM

The ‘Survey’ poll that was D+7 had the Cincinnati region at 45/40 FOR Obama. Really? I would agree that if Obama carries that region it is over. Difficult to believe this will be true.

The ‘Time’ poll was D+9 with a female+6 participation. But then the Toledo AND the Cleveland regions were female+12. Really? Females are going to comprise 56% of the electorate in NE and NW Ohio? Have they been selectively aborting their male babies in those areas?

Carnac on October 25, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Women answer the phone more often? So you can ignore men?

What is the usual male/female turnout?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Hopefully they get good poll watchers. If they do, they’ll spot it out and be able to alert Romney HQ ASAP without even leaving the polling place.

Zaggs on October 25, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Looks like y’all will have some extra ones since Texas will jail them if they try it it that backwards state.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 2:31 PM

The ‘Survey’ poll that was D+7 had the Cincinnati region at 45/40 FOR Obama. Really? I would agree that if Obama carries that region it is over. Difficult to believe this will be true.
Carnac on October 25, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Well, they must be referring to voters that are inside city limits. Cincinnati was once a very conservative city and still is, in many ways, even though most conservatives have left the city. The combined outlying areas dwarf the city and population. If they are including the entire metro area, those numbers would need to be flipped, imo.

Norky on October 25, 2012 at 2:32 PM

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

So going by their numbers, out of 250,000 votes cast so far, we’re up about 15k and they’re up about 6.5k. That’s a margin of 8500 voters, or about a 3.5% difference in the vote just from the assumed partisan makeup of the electorate. Even just inflating that trend to the general electorate, Obama’s margin of victory is cut in half.

But of course doing so would be stupid, as it only takes into account the ballot count from various areas in relation to which way they went in 2008. It ignores the swing in Independent support, which is important in all areas. It ignores that wealthy suburbanites are breaking back to Romney – that means NoVa. As such it also ignores the fact that Obama areas in 2008 aren’t necessarily going to be Obama areas in 2012… damned swing districts huh? Early voting is a time where Democrats need to run up the score, so that the GOP can’t catch up, and even there the news is well off from what they pulled in 2008 – even if you spot them that 57,000 vote gap they think they have when they don’t.

So thanks for the info. If that’s all they have it’s pretty thin and makes me more confident about VA. They aren’t even trying to address the polling there or elsewhere, which only shows Obama tied or within the MoE most anyplace significant, despite sample sizes skewed to represent an even more lopsided turnout than 2008?

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Mr. York earns his place today at liberal elite cocktail party in DC…

Seriously folks, have you seen more cowardly, wed betters, than the so called conservative media inside Washington DC? Who the f*** are these people?

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Do you think it makes sense? Or are they full of it? It seems to be the same argument we’re using for the Ohio numbers.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Others that have looked at the VA early numbers think they bode well for Republicans, because the bottom line is Dem areas in NOVA are down from ’08, while GOP areas are way up. Romney will win election day voting here, so that gap Kos is talking up really isn’t that significant.

changer1701 on October 25, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Obama banked a lot of votes during early voting last time, with People who said, OBAMA’S GONNA PAY FOR MY GAS. … I won’t have to worry about putting gas in my car. I won’t have to worry about my mortgage, they took them right to early voting while they were enthralled.

So, if they don’t show up at the arena, they are not going to vote?

Fleuries on October 25, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Neither can their messiah. On Leno last night Barky admits math after the seventh grade level then he is pretty lost

Watched the video. Drudge should have it posted front and center. He admits he is an idiot. Somehow the video will be buried unless it gets out there quickly.

Anyone remember during the 08 campaign when he said his desk was always a mess and that he was totally unorganized. Try to find that clip.

Strike Twice on October 25, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Byron York sure is a perfect example of the kind of glad-handing, minimize-our-own-side, deferential Beltway GOP establishment type so many of us our so tired of.

Go have a pop with Mitch McConnell at the Capital Grille, Byron. Or, better yet, go find a competent barber.

Right Mover on October 25, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Incredible… They simply are too wimpy and cowardly to point out that Obama is in so much trouble… They really believe what liberals say… That is how stupid they are…

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:37 PM

i’m probably going to be a nervous nelly until ohio is called…

cmsinaz on October 25, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Good thing Rather isn’t around anymore or you’d be nervous until a few minutes before Romney is inaugerated.

Ok, someone explain to me how you just “drop out of the employment pool”.

If you’re one those persons, what do you do when you wake up in the morning? Look in the mirror and say to yourself “Damn…I should have dropped out years ago….this is cool.”

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 1:38 PM

It means when the BLS calls you and asks have you looked for work in the last month you said no. Nothing more, nothing less. If you include these people back in the labor market then you end up with an unemployment rate for Ohio of around 9% and somewhere around 10.5% for the nation.

Either way in the last 2 years Ohio has at worst added jobs at the national rate which it’s been a long time since that could be said. The labor force has dropped 1.3% in that time, though Ohio seems to have some extreme variability issues with that (and with job numbers) that no other state I looked at has, and the nation’s labor force only grew 0.7% in that time.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Mr. York earns his place today at liberal elite cocktail party in DC…

Seriously folks, have you seen more cowardly, wed betters, than the so called conservative media inside Washington DC? Who the f*** are these people?

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:33 PM

And that should be bed wetters… :)

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:38 PM

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Is that you, Nigel?

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 1:52 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH……. ROTFLMAO… I knew turning it up to eleven would give the whole gig away… ;p

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Talking about a hero of his

And don’t forget another Nigel…

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 2:39 PM

BREAKING:

Alec Baldwin fires real estate agent in France, contacts leading realty agency in Singapore; reports say looking for a quick close.

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Isn’t that the guy that accused us (USA) of slaughtering helpless Panamanian civilians with secret weapons during Operation Just Cause? What a loon..

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Do you think it makes sense? Or are they full of it? It seems to be the same argument we’re using for the Ohio numbers.

tkyang99 on October 25, 2012 at 2:15 PM

KOS is a delusinal idiot like most liberals… Do not believe a word this idiot says…

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:41 PM

:) Jaro

cmsinaz on October 25, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Poor Mika is starting to look constipated. The polls are scaring her.

Kenz on October 25, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Cuyahoga is probably the most likely to have wide-spread cheating in the vote tallying. GOP will be watching it closely.

Bitter Clinger

Hopefully they get good poll watchers. If they do, they’ll spot it out and be able to alert Romney HQ ASAP without even leaving the polling place.

Zaggs on October 25, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Good thing is that Cuyahoga is a steadily dwindling share of the state’s electorate.

Bad thing is, where did they go? I know some out here in the suburban Northeast Ohio counties, and good grief. They’re about the only people I’d ask to not move a county or two south but please go a state or 2 south.

Another thing to consider for all the hand wringers worried about voter fraud. In 2000 and 2008 we had a republican secretary of state, Ken Blackwell. Good guy. Bush won. In 2008 we had democrat tool Jennifer Brunner- massive fraud- Obama wins. We have a great republican secretary of state now- John Husted. Good guy. Voter rolls have been cleaned up and they are actively looking for fraud. This cannot be discounted. Jennifer Brunner didn’t even run again. She was a complete fraud herself put there with Soros’s campaign to get democrat control of SOS. Do not be eeyores!!!!

1nolibgal on October 25, 2012 at 2:18 PM

I was reading the post-2010 all Republican government here purged the voter rolls of nearly half a million dead, ineligible, and inactive voters. Fascinating that Democrat requests for absentee ballots fell so much. Wonder if it’s not just the magic being gone…

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Regaring the SurveyUSA poll, it says in reality that it is over for Obama… No incumbet a 47% is going to win a state even if he is ahead of his challenger, in this case by a 3 points and in a poll with unrealistic D+7 party ID advantage…

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 2:47 PM

The other day Obama came up with a new slogan, “Trust Matters.”

INC on October 25, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Ain’t that rich?

Benghazi, sequestration, the auto bailout, etc.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 2:48 PM

It would be especially sweet if Pennsylvania got called early for Romney. In fact, if Pennsylvania takes a long time to be called, there will be a wide-spread panic on their faces and in their voices.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Pennsylvania is out? Pennsylvania is out?!

Washington Nearsider on October 25, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Bleh, just started two comments with “Good thing”. Such poor writing style.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Good thing Rather isn’t around anymore or you’d be nervous until a few minutes before Romney is inaugerated.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 2:38 PM

If you ask me, I think Rather and Brokaw and “Tempter Tantrum” Jennings were playing kid games compared to the sort of ridiculous blatant bias and water-carrying the media is doing today. I think all signs point to a Romney win, but I’m not going to be completely comfortable until the plane leaves D.C. with Barry aboard and Moochelle in the cargo hold.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 2:51 PM

So when is Messina going to start working on getting out the “dead” vote?

GarandFan on October 25, 2012 at 2:51 PM

It would be especially sweet if Pennsylvania got called early for Romney. In fact, if Pennsylvania takes a long time to be called, there will be a wide-spread panic on their faces and in their voices.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 1:46 PM

It would be, but not going to happen. If Pennsylvania is close enough that they can’t call it until late at night then FL, VA, CO, and OH will already have been called (in that order is my guess) and we’ll just be waiting for those oh so huge and juicy cherries called PA, MI, and WI to top off the night, or not.

jarodea on October 25, 2012 at 2:52 PM

…like Ohio — which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout

Ohio Vote by Party ID has been all over the place over the years:

2004 R+5
2006 D+3
2008 D+8
2010 R+1

I assume the wide variation between pollsters is due to Party ID assumptions.

Does anyone know Rasmussen’s assumptions that gave him a Tie in his poll? How about Time’s Obama+5 poll?

topdog on October 25, 2012 at 2:53 PM

There is a fair case that the turnout will be far less Democrat than what the polls are trying to argue. How does one take a tie in a D+7 poll and argue that it’s overstating Romney?

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

..like others, I am concerned about OIHO as well — and became more so with Brit Hume’s sobering revelation that Romney has NEVER led in ANY poll of that state’s voters. But I accept the closing momentum argument and the “overly-skewed” samples, etc. I would also add — that while not a media conspiracy — they may be pushing this for any ratings they can get as well as for whatever promotional hype it might bring to Obama’s flagging campaign. I mean, if Romney starts forging ahead in OIHO, then there might be a massive tune-out and a concomitant turn-out decline for the Dems.

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 2:57 PM

but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.

This is what I do not understand in this poll (and others like it). Romney is winning with men and losing slightly with women. Romney is winning with independents. Romney is winning huge with republicans. Even if dems make up 40% of the electorate, Romney is winning a vast majority of the other 60%. How can he not be at least tied if not ahead?

MississippiMom on October 25, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Fox news has a feature on their web page where you can try to arrange the states for each candidate and the electoral votes and count them up.

I love doing it and leaving out Ohio, it’s empowerment.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-race-predictions

Click on the tiny not very obvious box marked MAKE YOUR PICKS.

Fleuries on October 25, 2012 at 3:02 PM

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Thanks for the pics.

Jvette on October 25, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Some M/F tournout math:

Seems that Women turn out more than men by 5% or so. Seems that the Gender gap is somewhere around 10% for Romney with men, somewhere around +5 for Obama, although that is suspect.

So do the math and give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

Women turnout 54%, men 46%. Give Romney the +10 for men, give Obama +6 for women.

Romney up by 1.3% being generous to Obama.

Now, some of the polls have been showing different gender numbers, but always a significant positive overall gender gap towards Romney.. And the trend has been that the + gap for Obama among women is going away.

Another thing to think about with these d++++ polls. Not only does it distort the result of the poll, it distorts the splits. As you go towards unrealistic d+ turnouts, the internal splits get distorted too.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 3:04 PM

So with all these absentee ballots…. does ohio pop the ballots in the reader when they return or hold them till election day or post?

I know provisional ballots do not get counted until the next day

cmsinaz on October 25, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I’m in Ohio and have not only been elected to office but also have been campaign manager for other candidates.

In Ohio absentee ballots remain sealed until the polls close on election night in each county. The absentees are then opened, counted and reported. Later, as each county’s polling locations return their ballots to the election boards, those ballots are then reported and numbers combined with absentees.

Those involved in elections in Cuyahoga County always say, “As the absentees go, so goes the election.” This was especially true when Ohio only allowed absentee voting with a legitimate excuse. Now that anyone can vote absentee in Ohio (no excuse necessary) the above quote seems to hold true about 75% of the time.

I’m fully expecting Cuyahoga County and Cleveland especially to go for Obama, given that it’s a Democrat stronghold.

However, I have noticed that in the suburbs there is a huge lack of Obama yard signs. In 2008 almost every house on every street was plastered with Obama signs. This year only a few on each street in my area.

Additionally, we have a large circle of Dem friends and acquaintances, many of whom are union members. Every one of them and their spouses and children, with the exception of two people, are all disgusted with Obama and voting R&R.

FWIW.

GrannyDee on October 25, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Well shoot I had a great post with all sorts of pictures that went bye-bye.

Needless to say Romney’s magic was alive and well.

gophergirl on October 25, 2012 at 1:59 PM

.
Might I suggest for the future you consider Lazarus for Firefox…

SWalker
on October 25, 2012 at 2:06 PM

.
gophergirl‘s not the only one who has suffered that terrible fate.
I’d never heard of ‘Lazarus’ (for FireFox) before, so thanks MUCH SWalker.

I just installed it . . . : )

listens2glenn on October 25, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Of course Obama is great on the stump. He is a populist demagogue and enjoys slipping into folksy posturing. Plus, he doesn’t have to worry about anyone challenging him. It’s one reason among many that he is truly a dangerous man.

UnrepentantCurmudgeon on October 25, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Don’t worry, libtards. Should Romney win the Presidency due to a razor thin margin in Ohio, ballots will be found to keep Obama in the White House.

Decoski on October 25, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Biden v. Biden

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 3:15 PM

I just installed it . . . : )

listens2glenn on October 25, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Somebody (sadly I don’t remember who) here turned me on to it last year, been addicted to it every since. ;)

SWalker on October 25, 2012 at 3:20 PM

FoxNews just said Time’s Obama+5 in Ohio is outside the margin of error.
Nonsense!
Margin of error only applies to random variation. Statistical bias is something else entirely. Margin of error will not reflect whether one has made a lot of wrong asumptions. One cannot measure turnout that hasn’t yet occurred, and one can only guess what that turnout might be.
It is unreasonable to assume voter id will be the same as 2008, but what is reasonable? “Margin of error” tells us nothing about this.

topdog on October 25, 2012 at 3:21 PM

By all means, Ohio voters, cast your vote for the better “performer” on the stump. That’ll surely guarantee another four years of stunning “performance” as in “acting like I’m president, but not actually doing the job.”

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Some M/F tournout math:

Seems that Women turn out more than men by 5% or so. Seems that the Gender gap is somewhere around 10% for Romney with men, somewhere around +5 for Obama, although that is suspect.

So do the math and give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

Women turnout 54%, men 46%. Give Romney the +10 for men, give Obama +6 for women.

Romney up by 1.3% being generous to Obama.

Now, some of the polls have been showing different gender numbers, but always a significant positive overall gender gap towards Romney.. And the trend has been that the + gap for Obama among women is going away.

Another thing to think about with these d++++ polls. Not only does it distort the result of the poll, it distorts the splits. As you go towards unrealistic d+ turnouts, the internal splits get distorted too.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 3:04 PM

It is not just gender makeup of the polls, but also age and ethnics. Missing those targets just amplifies the error.

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 3:35 PM

lol @ f chuck. That picture, in this context, is priceless.

Greek Fire on October 25, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Performer?

Sheesh, these men are not supposed to be entertainers.

Terrye on October 25, 2012 at 3:37 PM

My concern is that the Romney campaign is calling it a dead heat but they have momentum. Doesn’t sound like they think they are really ahead.

SAZMD on October 25, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Yes, it will probably be close as they report it… but I don’t think the results will be close enough to dispute… and Romney will take Ohio.

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Whew… you have made my day! Uhmm… how sure are you? On a scale of 1-10?

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 3:42 PM

I am in Cuyahoga County and from whit i’ve been told this is where alot of cheating happens…especially at vote counting time

justonevictory on October 25, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Cuyahoga is probably the most likely to have wide-spread cheating in the vote tallying. GOP will be watching it closely.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 1:41 PM

What usually happens is that around 6pm they throw out the Republican observers. At 8pm a judge rules that they have to be allowed back in. By then it’s too late, the scam has already been executed.

Ditto East St. Louis, Philadelphia, Chicago, Madison, etc, etc.

We have to win big enough to overcome the democratics usual margin of vote theft.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Additionally, we have a large circle of Dem friends and acquaintances, many of whom are union members. Every one of them and their spouses and children, with the exception of two people, are all disgusted with Obama and voting R&R.

FWIW.

GrannyDee on October 25, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Wooo hooo!! More good news! Thank you Granny:)

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Colorado is in China

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM

It is not just gender makeup of the polls, but also age and ethnics. Missing those targets just amplifies the error.

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 3:35 PM

I’m sure any and all of those targets for Obama are not looking as good as the were. According to some of our commenters, population in Ohio is moving into the Burbs/Sticks or pretty much out of Ohio. I’d speculate one of the strongest indicators would be Urban vs. Rural and that isn’t in Obama’s favor as a trend. Lay the voter registration numbers etc. etc over the top and you get several “dimensions” that all end up in the same place: With unrealistically high Female and Dem turnout, Romney is ahead.

When things get realistic in the next few days he won’t be just a point or two ahead. It will be 3 or 4% lead for Romney. It’s over and I think both campaign’s know it. Maybe the Obama campaign is sitting around and thinking “yeah, but what happens if this or that miracle happens…”

I think the “magic” idea is exactly right. That is all there was to Obama. People really believed he was something very different and above us all. Now that he has been found out, nothing can bring that back, not even for those that were once true believers.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

I think the “magic” idea is exactly right. That is all there was to Obama. People really believed he was something very different and above us all. Now that he has been found out, nothing can bring that back, not even for those that were once true believers.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Interesting observation, but why are there still so many die-hards that are spewing the same platitudes about Obama this go round? I understand that the number is far fewer, but there are still some who think Obama walks on water. I just don’t get it.

Here’s a thought provoking question. Many of us were die-hard McCain supporters because we knew what an Obama Presidency would look like. After the election, we were free to admit that McCain was a terrible candidate. After Obama loses, what will all those diehards be saying about him? Will they simply just direct all their anger at Romney and not look at why their candidate lost?

I think that anyone who is still head over heels in their support of Obama at this point is too far gone to have any sense of introspection after he loses. In a round about way, it may be how we arrive at Obama’s core 47%.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM

I’ve noticed, for the most part, when Obama is here in “Oiho”, he spends his time at college campuses. I reckon he knows the people that have had to deal with this economy the last four years could care less about what he says, and instead he talks to those that don’t know.

sadatoni on October 25, 2012 at 3:57 PM

I think that anyone who is still head over heels in their support of Obama at this point is too far gone to have any sense of introspection after he loses. In a round about way, it may be how we arrive at Obama’s core 47%.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Liberalism is a mental disease? Whoodathunkit…

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 4:01 PM

NYT down 22% after earnings release today! Woohooo, bankruptcy getting closer and closer. Put Goebles….err Sulzberger out of a job!

WV. Paul on October 25, 2012 at 4:03 PM

I think that anyone who is still head over heels in their support of Obama at this point is too far gone to have any sense of introspection after he loses. In a round about way, it may be how we arrive at Obama’s core 47%.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Wouldn’t it be absolutely delicious if Obama’s total was 47%?

Something like Mitt 51, Barry 47, Googly Eyed Gary and others 2%?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 4:04 PM

So when is Messina going to start working on getting out the “dead” vote?

GarandFan on October 25, 2012 at 2:51 PM

I believe that’s already covered, as part of “the base”.

bofh on October 25, 2012 at 4:07 PM

The War Planner on October 25, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Undoubtedly. For the past couple of months, and especially the past few weeks as Romney has pulled ahead in FL, VA, CO, the media has been screaming “Ohio” every day. If there is one bit of information those low-information voters have, it is that this race depends on Ohio.

After that, there’s no way they can admit Ohio is anything other than too close to call. If they show Romney ahead there, marching along as he did in VA and FL, then that’s the same as telling those low-info voters that the race is over. It wouldn’t matter what polls say in Wisconsin, or even if Barky came back in Virginia or something.

Ohio is the ballgame, and if they admit Romney is ahead or could be ahead now, then all of those low-info Dems start walking out in the 8th inning to beat the traffic.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Four years ago today, Obama was beating McCain by 17 points in Michigan. 54% – 37%

His lead is only 4 now. 48% – 44%

So, using MSNBC methodology, 7% of the population of Michigan turned Racist and the rest are being disenfranchised by Tea Party Extremists.

GadsdenRattlers on October 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Four years ago today, Obama was beating McCain by 17 points in Michigan. 54% – 37%

His lead is only 4 now. 48% – 44%

So, using MSNBC methodology, 7% of the population of Michigan turned Racist and the rest are being disenfranchised by Tea Party Extremists.

GadsdenRattlers on October 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

How can you disenfranchise someone in a poll?

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Four years ago today, Obama was beating McCain by 17 points in Michigan. 54% – 37%

His lead is only 4 now. 48% – 44%

So, using MSNBC methodology, 7% of the population of Michigan turned Racist and the rest are being disenfranchised by Tea Party Extremists.

GadsdenRattlers on October 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

That’s another thing. All of the folks running around saying “But Ohio is Obama’s because of the bailout.” But wouldn’t Michigan be even more Obama’s because of that “popular” bailout? And what are the real indicators?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3