From Generation Hopenchange to Generation Disenchanted?

posted at 3:21 pm on October 25, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

One of the key Hopenchange-influenced demographics that boosted Barack Obama’s path to victory in 2008 was, of course, the starry-eyed youth vote, and part of Team Obama’s strategy still relies upon urging the youth vote to vote again/vote early/get their undecided friends to vote, especially in swing states, is still very much a part of their projected path to victory. As Byron York points out:

…[T]op Obama campaign aide Jim Messina discussed strategy on a conference call with reporters, and it was clear that Obama’s path to victory in Ohio relies completely, totally, and absolutely on early voting among constituencies friendly to the president.  At times, Messina seemed less a strategist than a walking, talking encyclopedia of every, black, Latino, female, and young voter who has already or might soon cast an early ballot in Ohio.

“We’re winning the early vote in the battleground states that will decide this election,” Messina said.  “The Romney campaign has bet that young people and minorities won’t turn out. The early vote numbers are already proving the folly of that gamble, and the wisdom of our plan.”

Er, I highly doubt that Team Romney’s plan rests more upon convincing young people not to turn out than on getting them to sit up and realize that they’re the ones who will have to live with the outcome of this election the longest. Under President Obama, the youth unemployment rate has hovered around 17 percent and that their share of public debt has skyrocketed while unsustainable entitlement programs go unreformed — a message that, it seems, is sinking in to at least some degree. The NJ reports that the erstwhile enchanted-with-Obama youths are feeling increasingly disenchanted with the results of his policies and and politics of late:

The trends appear to be worsening for millennials. Data from Gallup and the Public Religion Research Institute indicate that fewer young people plan to vote in the upcoming election. Gallup found that just 58 percent of young voters say they will “definitely vote” this fall, down from 81 percent in October 2004 and 78 percent in October 2008.

Meanwhile, a Pew Research Center survey shows that young voters are generally less engaged in politics than they were in 2008. The proportion of young voters expressing increased interest in politics this year has plummeted: At this time in 2008, 69 percent of voters under 30 said they were more interested in politics than four years prior, while today, just 52 percent of that age group expressed an increased interest.

“The millennial generation is characterized by a pessimism about the future and a mistrust of government institutions,” says Trey Grayson, director of Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. Since so many young voters have grown up in a society riddled with political dysfunction, he adds, such apathy should come as no surprise. “For young voters, there is a third candidate in this race,” Grayson says, “and it’s ‘stay home.’ ”

That declining enthusiasm poses huge concerns for President Obama, who turned out young voters in abnormally high numbers in 2008, then won overwhelmingly among them.

There may be other factors at play here (I’ve often wondered if the ease of information-sharing, with Twitter and smartphones and whatnot, has actually made us more inclined to an attention-deficit-aided shying away from critical thinking, or maybe just our constant exposure to it is making us all more jaded), but the extended partisan gridlock and poor economic news are not to be ignored, and I don’t think throwing them a few meager bones about helping out with student debt (which will, in the long run, actually keep making tuition and loans more expensive) will be enough to re-infatuate them with President Obama in the same numbers of 2008.


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Umm….. What??

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 3:24 PM

How the HE11 does this clown get into the 40′s?

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Oh, they’ll vote alright.

As thousands of parents drag them out of the basement and force them to vote for Romney.

BacaDog on October 25, 2012 at 3:25 PM

The millennial generation is characterized by a pessimism about the future and a mistrust of government institutions This Nation. Me…...

FIFY Erika.

I could’ve also used “Chicago” “Basketball” or “Food Stamp”

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Well…. I’m sorry.. What was I saying?….

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Our Dummy in Chief, aka cornered snake, thinks that Colorado is in China.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 3:26 PM

This disenchantment is nothing new. The same thing happened to the Boomers who thought that they were going to remake the world in the late 60′s. By the mid 70′s disillusionment had set in, hand in hand with the responsibilities of raising young families, paying mortgages and taxes, and trying to keep a job and perhaps earn some advancement in a poor employment market.

thatsafactjack on October 25, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Re-Elections have consequences also.

FlaMurph on October 25, 2012 at 3:28 PM

I might add that relief for the young Boomers who were disillusioned with the utopian dream of progressives came in the form of Ronald Reagan.

thatsafactjack on October 25, 2012 at 3:29 PM

That declining enthusiasm poses huge concerns for President Obama, who turned out young voters in abnormally high numbers in 2008, then won overwhelmingly among them.

they see Obama as yesterday’s news….he’s a thug, a punk, a crybaby and a loser. they know that you can’t live your life like that—well mostly, i think.

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 3:29 PM

the youth unemployment rate has hovered around 17 percent

Slight tangent: I know some of that 17% of ‘youth’ is represented by that OWS idiot who said he would not settle for a first job at less than $90k a year. Liberal arts grad with zero skills.

There is actually work for those kids. Certainly in oil and gas, and increasingly in the skilled trades in construction.

But its hard work especially at the beginning and doesn’t seem to leverage your degree in 13th Century Lesbian Comic Book History. So screw it – Mom’s basement, Xbox, and Benefits it is!

These are the Kunta’s of the future. Although at least Kunta is a teacher’s assistant at a community college.

CorporatePiggy on October 25, 2012 at 3:30 PM

When I was a kid I thought home schooling was for religious types…And only… But now… Hmmm…..
We need to change of direction before it is too late.. Let’s think about that for 12 or 13 days…

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 3:31 PM

And despite empirical evidence to the contrary pouring in every day from all corners of the nation, pollsters (including Rasmussen and Gallup) insist on factoring Dem +4 samples into their polling.

The tale of the tape is in Independent voters. In poll after poll, Romney win +12 to +15 with Independent voters. Obama simply cannot win while losing Independents by double digits. In addition, Romney is winning the crossover vote as well as the gender gap vote. Add to this that Dem advantages are down dramatically in early voting and it all becomes clear – an easy Romney win.

P.S., For those who wish to cite polls showing huge early voting and Obama winning by 30 points, don’t even start. Polls testing early voting differ wildly from actual numbers provided by states. The CNN poll of OH has 30% already voting with Obama winning 60/30. In reality, only 15% of OH voters have cast their ballots, down dramatically from this time in 2008. While Dem advantages were 14 points in 2008 they are only 6 points now. Republicans always win OH election day voting and even did so in 2008.

mitchellvii on October 25, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Future…

Child: “Grandpa, do you remember the first african-american president, Barack Obama?”

Grandfather: “Sure do .. he was the first president I voted for after high school. So did most of my friends. He was so breathtaking…full of Hope and Change…..and we were so young…”

Child: “My teacher says he wasn’t reelected… why not?”

Grandfather: “We grew up.”

AverageJoe on October 25, 2012 at 3:33 PM

The more I think about what I’m seeing, the more it seems that the enthusiasm simply isn’t there.

The enthusiasm was huge in 2008. 2004 was big too, people here (CA) were excited to kick Bush out of office. People waited for hours in the cold to vote for Kerry. I don’t see any excitement this year.

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Going from ‘We are the ones we are waiting for’ to we’re disappointed in who we are in just 4 short years!

Going from ‘Yes, we can!’ to ‘No, you didn’t’ in just 4 short years!

Welcome to the School of Hard Knocks.

If you want a better future, you have to work for it on your own and NOT look to government to do it for you.

ajacksonian on October 25, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Well, it started out as BS and ended up as BS. At least he is consistent. He has actually called his own platform BS. Really.

bloggless on October 25, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I don’t see any excitement this year.

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 3:34 PM

…on the left.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:37 PM

kids need money and mommy and daddy are running on empty

Conservative4ev on October 25, 2012 at 3:39 PM

For all of you young voters….

You owe $45,000 because of Obama’s deficit spending. And he wants you to owe another $15,000 if you give him another 4 years.

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 3:41 PM

The Obama campaign is about ideology. Period. That’s what drives them and led them to demonize Mr. Romney or any opponent for that matters. It’s their sine qua non in the electoral process.

So to quote Mr. Obama. Bullsh*t.

I am convinced the Clinton’s see themselves as some type of Party saviors (no not that kind of party nitwit). In the sense that Obama’s ways of running things will tar Democrats forever and cost them dearly in trust (which I believe is true). It will destroy something bigger for years- their Party.

This is one of the reasons winning this election is so imperative. It will give us an incredible amount of goodwill with which to work.

Democrats will rightly remain pariahs for the roughshod way they overrode voters since 2008 and the egregious pursuit of purely political goals that is obvious to almost every voter.

Let’s hope we are up to the task and deserving of the people’s trust.

Marcus Traianus on October 25, 2012 at 3:41 PM

…on the left.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Yes, that’s what I meant. I don’t see liberals excited to vote.

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Our trolls aren’t even excited about Obama. They’re not excited about any new policies, programs, or changing the world.

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 3:42 PM

CorporatePiggy on October 25, 2012 at 3:30 PM

My undergrad degree is in International Politics. There’s not much of a market for that outside of academia.

Fortunately, I also have an honorable discharge.

Between simply HAVING a degree and having served, I was able to work my way up, starting as a temp, then getting hired onto a contract, then into the government. (Yes, I’m one of those ‘leeches’ despised by so many here.)

The point is, I had to WORK, and work hard to get where I am. My degree field has no bearing on my job.

Washington Nearsider on October 25, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Josh Mandel admitted today that Obama has MORE OFFICES on the ground.in Ohio.

……and the polls show people love the BSer in Chief.

PappyD61 on October 25, 2012 at 3:44 PM

From Generation Hopenchange to Generation Disenchanted We Have To Pay Back How Much?

A slight correction…for accuracy.

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Nowadays, critical thinker=RACIST H8R!

Christien on October 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Future…

Child: “Grandpa, do you remember the first african-american president, Barack Obama?”

Grandfather: “Sure do .. he was the first president I voted for after high school. So did most of my friends. He was so breathtaking…full of Hope and Change…..and we were so young…”

Child: “My teacher says he wasn’t reelected… why not?”

Grandfather: “We grew up.”

AverageJoe on October 25, 2012 at 3:33 PM

This.

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 3:45 PM

How the HE11 does this clown get into the 40′s?

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Fraud? Sure would explain a lot of things, wouldn’t it?

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Youth follows youth and whatever seems to be the latest thing holds a great deal of appeal. So Obama — skinny, graying with a sallow complexion, deep facial lines, and who increasingly comes across as a bitter, cranky old man spouting the same old-same old — is bound to lose a chunk of the youth vote (and deservedly so).

Of all the constituencies he is courting, the young have the most to fear from him if he succeeds.

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Maybe this is why… http://agendadocumentary.com/

UnderstandingisPower on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

4 years ago, Obama held a rally in Denver with over 100,000 people. Yesterday, his Colorado rally had about 16,000.

El_Terrible on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Conspiracy to suppress youth vote — Halo 4 drops Nov. 6.

NoVAHockey on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

“Grandpa, why can’t I have my allowance to buy candy”

“Kid, there is no more candy, and we signed you up for the Obama PaymentPlan”

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Also, wasn’t President HopeandChange supposed to be able to control the sea levels? Why doesn’t he just call off Hurricane Sandy? I’m so confused.

UnderstandingisPower on October 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Conspiracy to suppress youth vote — Halo 4 drops Nov. 6.

NoVAHockey on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Heh. Funny. Isn’t Halo exclusively for the Microsoft Xbox? Doubtful that Gates would let that fly…

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Foodstamp President.

Tim_CA on October 25, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Conspiracy to suppress youth vote — Halo 4 drops Nov. 6.

NoVAHockey on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

So the basement-dwelling libs won’t make it to the polls.

Too bad.

Washington Nearsider on October 25, 2012 at 3:50 PM

OT
http://news.yahoo.com/ny-times-misses-third-quarter-revenue-expectations-stock-134849528–finance.html

(Reuters) – The New York Times Co reported worse-than-expected results on Thursday as advertisers cut spending on both print and digital outlets, sending shares down 16 percent.

Dived $2.42 (-22.7%) in the last trade, not quite 16% when the article was published.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Isn’t Halo exclusively for the Microsoft Xbox?

Yep.

So the basement-dwelling libs won’t make it to the polls.

I was thinking out of their dorm rooms. either way.

NoVAHockey on October 25, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Under Obama (Economic Super Genius) today’s twenty somethings are not employed, employed at menial jobs, employed at two menial jobs, owe tens of thousands in college loans, live with their parents, know that everything is more expensive, that wages are plummeting, and do not see anything positive in their or their friend’s future. This will be the first generation to be worse off than their parents. This is what a semi fundamentally changed America is to them.

jukin3 on October 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM

For all of you young voters….

You owe $45,000 because of Obama’s deficit spending. And he wants you to owe another $15,000 if you give him another 4 years.

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Ha!!.. Are you a conservative/.. :-)

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Barack Hussein Obama — the proud adoptive DaDDy who one day years ago promised all of his precious little snowflakes a trip to the utopia of Disneyland — and ended up taking the ungrateful bastards who actually expected him to keep his promise on a years long joy-ride through Obamaville eventually taking a detour to Joe’s Mini Golf and Arcade just to get them to shut up about Disneyland.

FlatFoot on October 25, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Oh, they’ll vote alright.

As thousands of parents drag them out of the basement and force them to vote for Romney.

BacaDog on October 25, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Get out of my head and out of my basement! Boomerang son is voting Romney but we’re in Illinois, so I doubt if it will be enough to get the state to turn from dark to light blue.

Fallon on October 25, 2012 at 4:00 PM

These are the Kunta’s of the future. Although at least Kunta is a teacher’s assistant at a community college.

CorporatePiggy on October 25, 2012 at 3:30 PM

We should create a communist test site, somewhere in the desert SW or on one of our more stable island possessions, where anyone who would like can be transported free of charge and set up a life for themselves within that community. Free to make their own rules, order their society as they see fit, etc.

A couple of caveats, though….

1) No weapons of any kind. (The capitalist pigs will defend your workers paradise, from a non-interfering distance)

2) No outside supports or subsidies. Open trade is encouraged, as long as its fair.

3) At the start, all life sustaining services will be in place and stocked to last for a set period, say 2 years, after which you’re on your own.

4) The enclave will start with no debt.

5) 911 service will not be available from outside the enclave (it only works for the proletariat anyway, right?)

6) Outside influences (e.g.; Voice of America) will be present, but not in an extraordinary manner (you get what Cuba and the USSR got)

7) US Citizenship will be maintained; US taxes will not be levied.

and so on and so forth.

I would give it 5 years before all thats left is a smoldering garbage pile. And it would, of course, be Bush’s fault.

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Those 2008 college students who voted for Obama were 18-22 then, and are 22-26 now. They are trying to find jobs at a time when the Employment-population ratio is lower now (58.7%) than it was during the Jimmy Carter administration (average 59.1% from January 1977- December 1980).

This is absolutely the worst economy they’ve seen in their lifetimes.

The media told them to “Blame Bush” in 2008, and they believed it.

Now, 4 years later, they are getting tired of the “Blame Bush” rhetoric of what Obama supposedly “inherited”, and they want results. They want jobs.

Some are even waking up to the fact that Barack Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. on January 3, 2005, Obama’s party took majority control of Washinton, D.C. on January 3, 2007, and the economy that House Speaker Pelosi, Senate majority leader Reid, and Senators Obama, Biden, and Clinton “inherited” on January 3, 2007 was actually a GOOD economy. Unemployment was 4.4%and the Employmnet-population ratio was 63,4% when Democrats took over.

Democrats turned a recovery into a recession (some would say a depression).

TRUTH.

ITguy on October 25, 2012 at 4:02 PM

PappyD61 on October 25, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Go ahead and give up. The rest of us will keep on fighting.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Get out of my head and out of my basement! Boomerang son is voting Romney but we’re in Illinois, so I doubt if it will be enough to get the state to turn from dark to light blue.

Fallon on October 25, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Dude, just get on any SEIU bus and get ready to vote…everywhere! Just sling on a purple T-shirt and vote as many times as you can…for Romney….while singing

“mmmmmm……mmmmmmm……mmmmmmm…Barack Hussein Obama…..”

BobMbx on October 25, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Breaking: Facebook shows if Obama had a son, he’d look just like NJ suspect

New Black Panther issues bounty in 4… 3… 2…

Terp Mole on October 25, 2012 at 4:07 PM

So the basement-dwelling libs won’t make it to the polls.

Too bad.

Washington Nearsider on October 25, 2012 at 3:50 PM

I’m a basement dweller… as in I work in my basement home office, and I’m miffed they’re releasing it that day. I really enjoy the Halo series, but I also really enjoy politics. Election day is one of my favorite days.

Usually Halo games come out in September and Call of Duty games come out in November and I’m not sure why they changed it this year. Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 is out a week later, on 11/13.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Terp Mole on October 25, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Go find a dark corner and starve yourself.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Heh. Funny. Isn’t Halo exclusively for the Microsoft Xbox? Doubtful that Gates would let that fly…

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Gates blames marketing for the bad decision.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

my nineteen year old first time voter

used to love Obama 4 years ago
he knew of my disdain and I occasionally brought up certain topics

I would watch O”Reilly and sometimes overbearing Hannity, now the Five

he pops into the room, sits down, takes it in, and even brings up discussions with his friends about how they could be so clueless
Fast and what? Ben who? 16 trillion – that’s not so bad

nearly all of them are totally in the tank for Obama but are not even registered to vote

my son will crawl over broken glass to vote,
and that’s in Louisiana which is solid red

he wishes he was in a swing state so he could see all the ads
I show him some from hotair and the various web ad sites

looks like we will be winning down ticket as well

audiotom on October 25, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Gates blames marketing for the bad decision.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

The “Obama response”

It was a video…It was faulty intellgence….It was the State Department.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:13 PM

natasha333 on October 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

And I’m sure some of the youth will vote RR cuz Ryan is sooo hawt and he works out to PX90!
Hey, we’ll take what we can get:)

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 4:15 PM

If you live in the corrupted inner cities, long dominated by democratics, not-voting means a vote for little Bammie. The democratics working in the precincts go over the rolls late in the day looking for those that haven’t voted, and then vote ‘for them’.

If poll workers are criminals, all the voter-ID in the world won’t stop the cheating.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM

strictnein whined: Go find a dark corner

What? Is that a dog whistle?

The girl’s body was found Monday night in a recycling container next to the brothers’ home.

Beer summit time?

Terp Mole on October 25, 2012 at 4:17 PM

If you live in the corrupted inner cities, long dominated by democratics, not-voting means a vote for little Bammie. The democratics working in the precincts go over the rolls late in the day looking for those that haven’t voted, and then vote ‘for them’.

If poll workers are criminals, all the voter-ID in the world won’t stop the cheating.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM

It only takes one person to make a difference if that is in fact the case. See James O’keefe.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:22 PM

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Hey, how about a heads up to the poll watchers about that? Couldnt hurt:)

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Ohio:

2008:

Absentee ballots requested: 1,354,044
AB returned: 705,237
Democrats returned: 445,985 (63.2%)
Republicans returned: 259,252 (36.8%)

In 2008, 52.1% of ballots requested were returned. 63.2% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 36.8% of Republicans did.

2012 (so far):

Absentee ballots requested: 1,132,163
AB returned: 582,310
Democrats have returned: 326,220 (56%)
Republicans returned: 256,090 (44%)

So far, 51.4% of ballots requested have been returned. 56% of those returned have come from registered Democrats. 44% from registered Republicans.

Democrats are down 11.392%.
Republicans are up 19.565%.

That’s a swing of 30.957%.

It is incredibly important to remember that for all of the hype about the much-vaunted Obama GOTV machine in Ohio, fewer votes were cast in 2008 than in 2004. In 2004, 5,627,903 (50.8/48.7/0.3/0.2) total votes, including those for third parties, were cast in Ohio. In 2008, only 5,268,507 ( 51.2/47.2/0.7/0.3) total votes were cast. That’s actually a DECREASE of 6.4%. The fall in voter participation came from Republicans. So, yes, Obama might have a good ground game, but he isn’t running against John McCain and a demoralised and depressed Republican base this year.

Further, Obama’s crutch counties, with the exception of Lake, have seen a decrease in the number of registered voters after ineligible voters, duplicate registrations, and movers were struck from the rolls earlier this year. With the exodus of thousands from the urban areas to the suburbs and exurbs, the Democratic strongholds in urban areas have lost considerable numbers of votes and Democratic votes that have moved are diluted by the overwhelming Republican advantage in those areas.

If Millenials do not turnout for Obama, he cannot overcome the 16-point swing in Independents, the increase in men against him, and the decrease if the women’s gap.

Lastly, it is also of note that support and enthusiasm for the GOP has increased by 20 points in the last month, according to Pew, and is now at 73% — the highest ever. Polls using 2008 or better turnout models are not only optimistic, they are delusional.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

That declining enthusiasm poses huge concerns for President Obama, who turned out young voters in abnormally high numbers in 2008, then won overwhelmingly among them.

Thus his strategy of sitting down with Rolling Stone and showing the kiddies that he can cuss just like one of them!

KS Rex on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM It only takes one person to make a difference if that is in fact the case. See James O’keefe.

weaselyone on October 25, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Heck, call James O’Keefe!

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 4:26 PM

churchill –

if you are twenty and not a liberal you don’t have a heart

if you are thirty and not a conservative you don’t have a brain

I think Obama just move the conservative cutoff down to 23-24

audiotom on October 25, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Washington Nearsider on October 25, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Congrats – you did build that.

What boils my p*** is people who simply choose not to and believe in the HopenChange farce.

CorporatePiggy on October 25, 2012 at 4:36 PM

The enthusiasm for Obama in ’08, reminded me of when Ross Perot ran for president and a lot of young people were very hopeful that he would change the status quo. Then when the next election came around, people were like, WTF was I thinking? One big difference in ’08 is that it wasn’t a three way race. I think a lot of new voters cut their teeth on Obama, but the taste was not so sweet. Hear that giant sucking sound?…that’s Obama.

Norky on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Enjoy your third world lifestyle ,juicboxers.
You voted it in with enthusiasm.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

If for decades, the elections were decided by the “independents”, why , with a double digit lead in those independents, do they think the race is so close?

right2bright on October 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

audiotom on October 25, 2012 at 4:13 PM

My sons were 19 and 22 in 2008. Both voted for McCain /Palin. They probably did so in large part because they were raised in a conservative household and taught to think for themselves, but they were both pretty much mocked by their friends for not voting for mssr. Hopenchange. Now,these two will not only be voting enthusiastically for Romney, they are working their tushies off to make sure their friends understand how much each of their contemporaries owe to the Fed. BTW, my oldest now has a child and knows exactly what that little one owes to the feds, too!

Chewy the Lab on October 25, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Democrats have returned: 326,220 (56%)
Republicans returned: 256,090 (44%)

So far, 51.4% of ballots requested have been returned. 56% of those returned have come from registered Democrats. 44% from registered Republicans.

Democrats are down 11.392%.
Republicans are up 19.565%.

That’s a swing of 30.957%.

*snip*

Polls using 2008 or better turnout models are not only optimistic, they are delusional.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 4:25 PM

.
Excellent post, as usual, RWM. There is another aspect people need to keep in mind. A certain percentage of registered Democrats are likely to NOT vote for Obama.

Shocking but true.

PolAgnostic on October 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

The plane, the plane

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

How the HE11 does this clown get into the 40′s?

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 3:24 PM

.
There is always bias on the part of anyone compiling numbers from which they are going to generate statistical results.

If Gallup polls a group of people and the first pass at the nnumbers indicated LV’s were only at 37% for Obama …

… the numbers would be massaged until they “fall in line” with historical voting patterns.

The problem with political polling is outliers are NOT welcome and are thrown aside.

If you did that in any other field based on statistics – the lawyers would eventually sue your firm into oblivion for fitting the data to the desired outcome.

Gsllup was threatened for numbers the SCOAMF administration didn’t like – a wonderful display of anti-science and thuggery combined.

PolAgnostic on October 25, 2012 at 5:02 PM

(I’ve often wondered if the ease of information-sharing, with Twitter and smartphones and whatnot, has actually made us more inclined to an attention-deficit-aided shying away from critical thinking, or maybe just our constant exposure to it is making us all more jaded)

Not really. It’s just enabled a lot of stupid people; who in the past would have kept their mouths shut (or been ignored), to have a forum to spew their ignorance.

GarandFan on October 25, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Not really. It’s just enabled a lot of stupid people; who in the past would have kept their mouths shut (or been ignored), to have a forum to spew their ignorance.

GarandFan on October 25, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I’ll agree with that.

Unfortunately, my last experience in which I was attacked by website employees (no profiles attached to their names), cursed out and by a huge host of pro-Obama posters……..was on OpenSecrets.org.

Apparently, they aren’t as non-partisan as they claim, and I called them to say so.

One poster even champion socialism. It was really quite ugly.

avagreen on October 25, 2012 at 5:33 PM

More like Generation Phillips…because we’re SCREWED.

MelonCollie on October 25, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Getting sick of all these “auto-start video ads” unexpectedly blasting through my speakers at work.

If it keeps up I’ll have to find another political news site.

Oxymoron on October 25, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Well, I hate to disagree with you, but as far as I can see, Twitter is allowing more info into the public conversation and thus, increasing critical thinking, by giving weight to arguments, the Obama Jihadi media, refuses to give to the public. The crux of your article does make perfect sense, in that, the Millennials are disenchanted by their decision to vote for the Marxist Messiah. In true Millennial fashion, they don’t want to take responsibility for another bad decision like that one again.
Update on how to take on the Obama Jihadi media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 25, 2012 at 7:20 PM