AP poll: Romney up 2 at 47/45, gender gap gone

posted at 10:01 am on October 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Mitt Romney continues his momentum in a poll conducted both before and after the final presidential debate, taking the lead for the first time among likely voters in the AP/GfK poll at 47/45.  Not only are respondents starting to question Barack Obama’s chances of winning the election, but Obama’s gender gap advantage has disappeared:

What gender gap?

Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama’s 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll’s margin of sampling error, the survey shows.

After a commanding first debate performance and a generally good month, Romney has gained ground with Americans on a number of important fronts, including their confidence in how he would handle the economy and their impressions of his ability to understand their problems.

At the same time, expectations that Obama will be re-elected have slipped: Half of voters now expect the president to win a second term, down from 55 percent a month earlier.

A month ago, this series had Obama up one among likely voters, 47/46, although tied without leaners at 44.  Now Romney leads without leaners by three points, 45/42 — and a firm number of 42% for a incumbent is a disaster 12 days out from the election.  When the “could change mind” voters are taken out, it’s even worse — 43/41 for Romney, with the incumbent barely above four out of ten voters.

Let’s check the sample.  The D/R/I 34/30/27 among likely voters for a D+4 advantage, which presumes a lower Republican turnout than either 2008 or 2010, along with a Democratic turnout about even with the midterms.  I suspect that’s a little optimistic for Democrats, and that we’re likely to see an even-up turnout in the exit polling.

There is more bad news in the data for Obama.  While he’s still seen as relatively favorable among likely voters (51/45, +6), Romney now has a +10 favorability rating at 52/42.  Romney has a seven-point lead on trust on the economy (51/44) and eight points on the deficit (51/43).  Romney now has a one-point edge on protecting the country at 47/46, a big change from last month’s six-point advantage for Obama at 51/45.  That has to be the Benghazi effect.

The AP/GFK topline report does not have the crosstab info by demographic, but the AP reports on a couple of key points:

Romney’s pitch to women has been focused squarely on the economy, making the case that what women want most is to ensure their families and their country are on a solid financial footing. The poll shows that message appears to be taking root.

A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

Similarly, Obama’s lead among women as the candidate who better understands the people’s problems has narrowed considerably, from a 58-36 Obama advantage last month to a 50-43 Obama edge now.

We’ve been seeing the gender gap disappear for several weeks in other polling.  If Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast.


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“O seems pretty solid lately at 49+ %. Have we been ignoring this lately? Should Romney enthusiasm be tempered?

carson53 on October 25, 2012 at 10:29 AM”

A very good, realistic question, which I hope people try to answer.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

It’s a simple answer, but one you will fail to accept because it does not conform to your narrative.

First, job approval isn’t the best predictor, but assuming that it is – it, like favorability rating, is considered an indicator of an incumbent’s ceiling. Meaning, an incumbent won’t get more of a percentage of the vote than that number, but that it is possible for an incumbent to get less than that number.

So, Obama can’t break 50% in polls that may be too heavily dem sampled by 2-4%. That does not bode well for Obama.

It does, however, mean there is unlikely to be a landslide for Romney b/c Obama has somehow managed keep his approval rating from collapsing completely.

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Hilarious! What is it, two days since Nate Silver wrote his ridiculous piece on Obama’s gender advantage?

Fate keeps smacking his arguments down, like one big whack-a-mole game, and yet the President is a bigger favorite today in Nate-World than he was at the beginning of this month.

MTF on October 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Boom! h/t Weazel Zippers

Wow: Romney Campaign Raises $111.8 Million In First Half Of October…

Hell yeah!

Andrea Saul

@andreamsaul

BOOM: In first half of October alone, @MittRomney effort raised $111.8 million. #RomneyRyan2012
25 Oct 12

MontanaMmmm on October 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Uh, tie up the virgin with Velcro, please. Those knots are annoying when you have multiple bookings.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

The velcro is the easy part… the virgin on the other hand, not so musch….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

When Gov. Scott won re-election, I put the Kraken on YouTube and cranked the speakers waayyyyyy up.

Neighbors ran out of their houses, dogs barked in the street.

*sigh* Good times….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:43 AM

D@mn YouTube freebies…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Barack Obama’s chances of winning this election are about as good as Justin Verlander striking out Pablo Sandoval.

Rovin on October 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

…don’t worry about Michigan…next to California, New York, and Mass….there is a lot of heavy brain cell damage in this state due to the atmosphere or something…whereas PA, WI and MN…seem to be clearing the air!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Don’t write off Michigan yet. The Democrat turn out machine is Detroit is not what it used to be. The former mayor and friend of Obama is going through a huge corruption trial. The Wayne County Exec is under scrutiny as well. The Governor and both chambers moved as well as the State SC moved back to the red side in 2010. There is still hope

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I guarantee that the Obama campaign isn’t looking at poll “results” anymore. They are looking at internals and turnouts, and they know it’s bad for Obama.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I think that they are too delusional and they do not want to know the truth… They are conducting internal polls that would show them the results that they and their leader want… If Obama does not want to hear the bad news then they are not going to conduct honest and realistic internal polls that would prove his utter and certain defeat on November 6 2012… Obama and his people are the worst bunch of liars, incompetent, and delusional people this Republic has ever known.

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

rogerb has his work cut out for him on Election Night :)

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Michigan: 47/47

FMWB is a Democrat polling firm, FYI.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:22 AM

If Obama or Romney thought that was even close to what was going on, both candidates would be there ASAP.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

What for? Romney believes that the dynamics of his momentum will carry him over the finish line. And Obama’s handlers understand that the moment they admit that Michigan is truly in play, their campaign is officially over.

Archivarix on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast bacon.

tomg51 on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The velcro is the easy part… the virgin on the other hand, not so musch….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Make it a squealer, and I’m good.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Mike Bergen ‏@BergenCapital

Rumors of a US credit rating downgrade by Fitch making the rounds.
Retweeted by Adrian Gray

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I telling you know, Democrats are going to be absolutely stunned when Romney wins this thing.

Why? We’ll I just took a quick look at CNN, ABC, CBS and they have nothing, NOTHING on the polls and that Obama is losing.

As far as their readers are concerned, everything is hunky dory.

WisRich on October 25, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Make it a squealer, and I’m good.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

*Mtn Dew on Computer screen moment* You’re on! LOL!

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:50 AM

So, Obama can’t break 50% in polls that may be too heavily dem sampled by 2-4%. That does not bode well for Obama.

It does, however, mean there is unlikely to be a landslide for Romney b/c Obama has somehow managed keep his approval rating from collapsing completely.

Monkeytoe on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I think this has to do with the “I’m not racist but I’m not voting for him” thing. His “approval” has always been shown higher than what it really is, just as Bush’s approval was shown lower than what it really was. Billions of dollars of free media publicity and he steps out on stage in the first debate and the whole thing fell apart. Talk about the Emperor’s Golden Clothes….wow.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Make it a squealer, and I’m good.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Axlerod or Messina?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM

These polling outfits slay me. Their turnout projections (D+4, D+5, D+7, D+9) aren’t “rosy” or “overly optimistic.” They are downright delusional. Not only do they fail to take into account the fact that Republicans were demoralised and depressed in 2008 and the energy that has been generated at the grass roots level since then, they ignore the fact that Democrat registration is actually DOWN. For example, in Iowa, there are 87,555 fewer registered Democrats than there were in 2008 and 46,176 more registered Republicans.

The polling companies remind me of the Obama administration and its projections. Remember, if we passed the Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Stimulus Act of 2009, unemployment would be 5% in October, 2012. Obama’s budgets have assumed at GDP between 3.5% and 4.0%. That’s why he was going to be able to “cut the deficit in half” even with all of his enormous spending (his 17.9% increase in spending was the highest single-year percentage spending increase since the Korean War*). He assumed an enormous growth in the GDP rate. What has it been in reality?

2009: 0.4%
2010: 2.5%
2011: 2.0%
2012: 1.6%

If pollsters base their projections on a 2008 turnout model, they are understating Republican turnout and likely overstating Democrat turnout, especially with regard to Millennials.

* There was NO Bush FY 2009 budget.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 10:52 AM

rogerb has his work cut out for him on Election Night :)

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I get the sense from rogerb that it is a labor of love.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 10:52 AM

While I was gathering data for the piece below, I stumbled across these numbers:

* Registered Republicans: 622,176 (2 Oct)

* Registered Democrats: 611,284 (2 Oct)

* Registered “No Party”: 675,171 (2 Oct)

* There were 576,000 Registered Republicans in 2008. Republicans are now +46,176.

* There were 698,839 Registered Democrats in November 2008. Democrats are now -87,555.

* Obama beat McCain in Iowa by 146,000 votes.

* Since 2011, 77,800 Democrats have disappeared from the Iowa registration rolls with 48,800 of them coming since the beginning of 2012.

* In 2004, there were 85,000 more Democrats registered, but Bush beat Kerry by 10,000.

The key for Iowa is going to be turnout in the suburbs and in the eastern part of the state. Independents are also more likely to tip in favour of Romney, according to the DMR, because of immigration issues. There are 44,000 registered Hispanic voters in the Des Moines area.

Ohio, By The Numbers (updated)

M2RB: Van Halen

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Make it a squealer, and I’m good.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Cutter?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Axlerod or Messina?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Intriguing. My contract specifies females, but the novelty here may be too good to pass up.

What the Hades: you pay Charon, and I’ll do the gig!

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Cutter?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:54 AM

No.

Uh…

No. A titan has standards, you know.

Sheez, the things I’m asked to eat…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Intriguing. My contract specifies females, but the novelty here may be too good to pass up.

What the Hades: you pay Charon, and I’ll do the gig!

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Either way, the good ship “Obama 2012″ headed for Davy Jones locker?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Don’t write off Michigan yet. The Democrat turn out machine is Detroit is not what it used to be.

People existing in a Mad Max Thunderdome don’t vote.

NoDonkey on October 25, 2012 at 10:59 AM

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:57 AM

She was never a good ship.

A papier mache’ dingy that claimed to be a 44 gun frigate.

Sailed only to the left and yielded to all.

Not a good ship.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 11:03 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

So Obama appeals to the mom-jeans-wearing, girl-bike-riding, wife-controls-his-testosterone-level, tenured faculty member. Who knew?

AubieJon on October 25, 2012 at 11:06 AM

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Not so sure about that. Not even sure Gumby is a dude. I thought there was serious speculation that Gumby is actually Stephanie Cutter.

Right Mover on October 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM

MN? Now that IS interesting considering their presidential voting history… (sorry Ed).

Turtle317

Don’t get your hopes up. MN is the state that voted for Al Franken, Jesse Ventura, and Barack Obama, but didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan. MN is not in play.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Don’t write off Michigan yet…… There is still hope

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Much as I would like to say otherwise, MI is not going to turn red. Stabenow is cruising to a very safe reelection over Pete Hoekstra and the rat-eared wonder doesn’t have to sweat it after paying off the UAW.

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Don’t get your hopes up. MN is the state that voted for Al Franken, Jesse Ventura, and Barack Obama, but didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan. MN is not in play.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM

But have you factored in the lizard people votes? Might well be the spoiler for Obama ;0

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Barry reminds every sensible woman of the disastrous ex-boyfriend or ex-husband who was not anything he pretended to be at the courtship phase of the relationship.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 11:14 AM

She was never a good ship.

A papier mache’ dingy that claimed to be a 44 gun frigate.

Sailed only to the left and yielded to all.

Not a good ship.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Paper Mache’ you say? So she will be dissolving into the “Sea of Reality” and her contents relinquished to the Deep?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 11:15 AM

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 11:15 AM

They are bailing feverishly as we write.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Rasmussen Today

Who won the debates?

Romney 49
Obama 41

BOOM!

bgibbs1000 on October 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM

If Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast.

Obama is toast. I just don’t see him getting numbers even close to 2008 and I strongly believe the R numbers will be larger than then.
I remember after the 2010 “shellacking” the Left kept saying the reason for their being trounced wasn’t because of their policies and ideology, but messaging. Basically saying that us stupid Americans didn’t understand what they were trying to do.
I smiled when I kept hearing that theme.. Knowing they will get smacked again in ’12 if they stick with that.
Well, we will know soon enough.

Al Hall on October 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Rasmussen Today

Who won the debates?

Romney 49
Obama 41

BOOM!

bgibbs1000 on October 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Oof. That has to hurt. At least he had the consolation that he was a good debater when he wanted to show up. Now he has nothing.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 11:19 AM

If Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast.

you meant a “Won Term Proposition” …/

ted c on October 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

0 will win no more then 18 states, 43% of the vote. 45% tops.

That ain’t no bullshit.

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Breaking
The Devolve Patrick appointed judge unsealed the record of the divorce case of Stembergs from 25 years ago.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Ohio, By The Numbers (updated)

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Nice article. Lots of interesting data.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Don’t get your hopes up. MN is the state that voted for Al Franken, Jesse Ventura, and Barack Obama, but didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan. MN is not in play.

xblade on October 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Close enough to true. But that it has been clearly demonstrated that Franken won through voter fraud, i.e. the votes of felons, cannot be repeated enough.

M240H on October 25, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The Devolve Patrick appointed judge unsealed the record of the divorce case of Stembergs from 25 years ago.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Yes, but AllRED and her client still aren’t allowed to comment about it. The judge didn’t lift the gag order against her, because the brilliant attorney neglected to file a motion for it to be lifted herself.

Flora Duh on October 25, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Flora Duh on October 25, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Don’t ya’ just love it when a bottom feeder like Allred is hoisted on their own petard.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Breaking The Devolve [sic] Patrick appointed judge unsealed the record of the divorce case of Stembergs from 25 years ago.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Scott Brown should do whatever it takes to get a reporter to induce the Harvard professor into commenting on that decision.

M240H on October 25, 2012 at 11:33 AM

This election season Obama revealed his true self and as a result has caused permanent damage to his legacy as people change how they feel about him. Instead of growing and maturing in office, Obama has become small, petty and arrogant. He’s made a mockery of the office by appearing on Pimp with a limp. Obama has shrank in office because he’s in over his head. He’s been a giant mistake.

OxyCon on October 25, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Place no faith in these polls.

Do not trust any media outlet data.

Beware irrational optimism, especially when driven by the MSM.

Bruno Strozek on October 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Yay women!!!!

Makes me want to hear Women Def Leppard

magicbeans on October 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

From Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher:

Why Romney Doesn’t Need a Poll Lead in Ohio

M2RB: Iggy Pop

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Much as I would like to say otherwise, MI is not going to turn red. Stabenow is cruising to a very safe reelection over Pete Hoekstra and the rat-eared wonder doesn’t have to sweat it after paying off the UAW.

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 11:11 AM

There are a lot of ticket splitters here.
In the past, there have been splits between the Gov, SoS, and AG.

For the life of me, I do not understand the “attraction” of Stabenow

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Don’t ya’ just love it when a bottom feeder like Allred is hoisted on their own petard.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 11:32 AM

You betcha!

Now Gloria has to rely on the Globe to do her Mitt bashing for her and her client. I’m sure they’ll do their best to do them proud.

Flora Duh on October 25, 2012 at 11:42 AM

From Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher:

Why Romney Doesn’t Need a Poll Lead in Ohio

M2RB: Iggy Pop

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I have to wonder if the goal of some of these weighted polls is simply to keep “the one” above water in the RCP averages.

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 11:43 AM

New Rasmussen Virginia Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 48%

Romney leads with Independents by 6%

sentinelrules on October 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Rasmussen Today

Who won the debates?

Romney 49
Obama 41

BOOM!

bgibbs1000 on October 25, 2012 at 11:17 AM


‘Toon of the Day: Dems: Obama Destroyed Romney In The Last Two Debates! He Won! Just Wait For That Huge Bounce!
(yesterday)

Today:

‘Toons of the Day: Pathological

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Nice article. Lots of interesting data.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Thanks. I will try to update it daily. :-)

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM

…you were bullied and beat up a lot as a kid weren’t you?
I can see why!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

She’s still there.

slickwillie2001 on October 25, 2012 at 11:52 AM

New Rasmussen Virginia Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 48%

Romney leads with Independents by 6%

sentinelrules on October 25, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Obama at 48%. That means Obama is winning because Romney +2 doesn’t mean anything…. /

What this means with I+6 for Romney is that the skew has to be D+7 at least, even with even Dem crossovers vs. Republican. With a reasonable couple percent more Dem crossovers for Romney were talking D+9….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Romney’s pitch to women has been focused squarely on the economy, making the case that what women want most is to ensure their families and their country are on a solid financial footing. The poll shows that message appears to be taking root.

A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

Similarly, Obama’s lead among women as the candidate who better understands the people’s problems has narrowed considerably, from a 58-36 Obama advantage last month to a 50-43 Obama edge now.

AP is the latest to discover the White Recession Wives who will determine this election.

Bart DePalma on October 25, 2012 at 12:14 PM

You’ll be busy. Do you give discounts for volume?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM
In this market, ya have to, especially if you want repeat business.

Uh, tie up the virgin with Velcro, please. Those knots are annoying when you have multiple bookings.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

ROFL…perfect Kraken is perfect…

mrsknightley on October 25, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Next week is going to be butt-hurt time. Rather than the turnout reality gap built in to these polls narrowing, the samples are going farther D+ – probably to avoid legal action by Eric Holder. And even then Romney is widening his lead.

D+9 in Virginia. D+9 in Ohio. Rasmussen doesn’t release totals by state, but just take the I+6 for Romney and open a spreadsheet. Call it even crossovers R to D and back. D+7 is where you end up to get Romney +2. It works out D/R/I at 37/30/33 with even crossover. Change the crossover to favor Romney and you have to go up a percent or two.

Next week the pollsters will change to real samples, the “Justice Dept.” be damned. There is going to be weeping and wailing and nashing of teeth. The first blame has already been cast towards Bill Clinton. Not a wise move.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Odds of a Obama win increasing today from a 1.9 to 1 favorite yesterday to a 2.1 to 1 favorite today. Ha ha ha…Romney is running out of time and can’t figure out how to beat the electoral college map. More money moving to Obama. Hot Air readers bitterly clinging to schizophrenic daily polls. The free market tells you who is going to win!!!!

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1451382/Next-Presidential-US-Election.html

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Just wait until that “he’s a bullshiiiter” comment sinks in. that won’t play well with womenses IMO. It’s a shame that this is more important and more well understood than Benghazi, but whatever.

Maybe you have to get to the basest indicators of who Obama is before people really pay attention.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 12:23 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Fail. Nice try fool.

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Obama is very personally popular incumbent.

Play-D’OH! on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Provably False.

This very same “poll” (AP) shows O’bamna’s Favorability at just 51%. That is almost a 10 point drop in the span of just 5 months. And all the other “polls” have O’s Favorability at right around 50%.

http://pollingreport.com/obama_fav.htm

At the time he left office, Bill Clinton’s Favorability was almost 10 points higher. Then immediately plunged into the 40s.

You’re not very good at this. Back to “ignore” with you.

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Obama is very personally popular incumbent.

Play-D’OH! on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

He has lower favourables than Romney, according to RCP.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Ras Virginia

R 50
O 47

bgibbs1000 on October 25, 2012 at 12:36 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

LOL, you’re judging from Bodog? Let me tell you something about gambling: making money at it relies upon a bunch of wrong-headed people going in and throwing their cash at their false perceptions. When it comes to college football, those are people who read the stats wrong, people who don’t follow close enough and just read the Feist books, and outright homers that have deluded themselves into the idea that somehow their 2-6 favorite team is going to turn it around and grab a bowl game.

You and the cronies that bet on this political crap are all three in one. You read the stats wrong, ignoring the polling sample bias that’s everywhere. You just read the misleading information, supplied to you not by Jim Feist but by a mainstream media knowingly in the tank for Obama. All of it means that you see an Obama campaign and can’t even recognize that they aren’t there for a winning season. Ever see

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Facts are useless on trolls. They just love them some cool preezy!

wargamer6 on October 25, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Ever see

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Ever see a winning campaign crack in front of the media and call their opponents bulls—-ers? Didn’t think so.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Rasmussen:

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 50%, Berkley (D) 45%

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Odds of a Obama win increasing today from a 1.9 to 1 favorite yesterday to a 2.1 to 1 favorite today. Ha ha ha…Romney is running out of time and can’t figure out how to beat the electoral college map. More money moving to Obama. Hot Air readers bitterly clinging to schizophrenic daily polls. The free market tells you who is going to win!!!!

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1451382/Next-Presidential-US-Election.html

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Haha, Romney raised over 100 millions since the debates alone, idiot, it’s called Mittmentum :), that’s wat Obama doesn’t have right now…check the other thread…Romney is sitting on a pile of money right now which allows him to have a plan B C D E, the alphabet is yours to figure it out :)… He can expand his game in every swing dtate, obama had to pull out already from 3 states due to money constraints…soo, nice try, but epic fail!!! :)

jimver on October 25, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Rasmussen:

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 50%, Berkley (D) 45%

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Yesss!!

jimver on October 25, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Not so sure about that. Not even sure Gumby is a dude. I thought there was serious speculation that Gumby is actually Stephanie Cutter.

Right Mover on October 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM

…DWS…is more likely!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 12:46 PM

PREDICTION: Obama wins electoral vote by winning Ohio on a razor thin margin. Romney graciously concedes. Days later, absentee votes come in making Romney the winner. Next, Obama orders a recount and votes are pulled out of trucks, making Obama the “winner.” Two years later, after a lengthy investigation, Obama is thrown kicking-and-screaming out of office from the Benghazi incident. President Bite Me oversees the completion of the destruction of the USA economy. Hillary runs in 2016, promising the clean up the mess she says was caused by Bush. A RINO wins the candidacy for the Republicans. Disillusioned, Tea Party Conservatives flee the Republican party, and vote for a third or fourth party candidate, thus splitting the votes and making Hillary the winner with only 30% of the popular vote. The Republican party goes the way of the Whigs.

Decoski on October 25, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Story about Gloria Allred , concerning the participants in the divorce case mentioned, in Legal Insurrection,

“It appears that the Judge didn’t lift the gag order because Allred had not actually filed a motion to lift the gag order. The only motion was by The Boston Globe for access to the transcript.

So maybe Allred isn’t one of the best lawyers in America. But this never was about the law, it was about Allred seeking publicity, and The Globe doing Obama’s dirty work.”

WV. Paul on October 25, 2012 at 12:49 PM

The Globe doing Obama’s dirty work.”

WV. Paul on October 25, 2012 at 12:49 PM

They’re experienced at that kind of thing. They did Gigolo Thurston’s dirty work for him when he ran for President in 2004.

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Gallup steady at 50-47

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:01 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM

If it’s a sure thing you’ve put a significant portion of your own assets into this, right? I mean, otherwise you’re just throwing money away.

strictnein on October 25, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Gallup steady at 50-47

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Obama approval down 2%, Obama disapproval up 2%.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 50%

Obama: 47%

Obama approval -2

Obama disapproval +2

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Poking the (gummy)bear?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Obama is very personally popular incumbent.

Play-D’OH! on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

He is a despicable human being, and 70 million viewers got to see that nasty, petulant personality on display in three debates.

Right Mover on October 25, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Pew Poll: GOP Enthusiasm For Presidential Race At All-Time High…

In the latest poll – of 1,005 people conducted Oct. 18-21 – Pew found that 73 percent of Republicans said the campaign is interesting, up 23 points since early September.

JPeterman on October 25, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Obama approval down 2%, Obama disapproval up 2%.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Yep.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Gallup note: Obama’s drop of 4 in approval would indicate yesterday not nearly as good for Obama as previous two days. Hard to know for sure

As he’s said other times, the approval rating is of adults, so it’s going to shift more and be steadily higher for Obama than the LV screen. It still trickles through a bit though. Obama had a good Monday in the polling is the likeliest guess, plus two extra-strong Romney days cycled out. Truth seems to be around Romney +3 or 4. About where all the polls have met in the middle. Romney gets 50%. Barry seems to have a hard ceiling of 47%.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:26 PM

The polls published since the 3rd and final debate:

Associated Press/GfK (D+4): Romney +2

Rasmussen Reports (D+3): Romney +3

Gallup (I’m told that it is D+4, but we’ll see): Romney +3

ABC News/Wash Post (D+4): Romney +1

IBD/TIPP (D+7): Obama +3

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 1:27 PM

The polls published since the 3rd and final debate:

Associated Press/GfK (D+4): Romney +2

Rasmussen Reports (D+3): Romney +3

Gallup (I’m told that it is D+4, but we’ll see): Romney +3

ABC News/Wash Post (D+4): Romney +1

IBD/TIPP (D+7): Obama +3

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 1:27 PM

So, what do you think the odds are of a Romney win? I’d say they are pretty decent. But, if I was Nate Silver, I’d say they were roughly double that of a Bob Kerry win in NE.

besser tot als rot on October 25, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Gallup steady at 50-47

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Interesting. Although the 7-day rolling average MoE for Gallup is 2%, the MoE for each daily sample is 5%. What that means is that there is a 16% chance that a given day’s results can be out of “true” from the underlying population by 2.5% or more. If a Romney outlier day dropped out and an Obama outlier day took its place, that would account for most of the shift that Gallup has shown over the past few days.

The fact that today’s 7-day average did not change would tend to support the idea that this is more statistical noise than an actual trend. In which case the Gallup results now contain an Obama outlier day, which will disappear in about 6 days. Obviously events between now and then may change the trajectory in one way or another, but in any case there is a bit of a statistical hurdle coming up for Obama over the next week.

HTL on October 25, 2012 at 1:41 PM

O’bamna’s “Gallup Bouce” was Hugh and Series.

Approval (-2) overnight and disapproval (+2) overnight.

Del Dolemonte on October 25, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Oh wow, did anyone else just hear the caller on Rush’s show that went to the Red Rock rally? Amazing and so exciting to hear the enthusiasm!!

txmomof6 on October 25, 2012 at 1:49 PM

LOL, you’re judging from Bodog?

No… I am judging by the free market value placed by independent wagers by individuals making an informed decision and risking their own wealth.

You and the cronies that bet on this political crap are all three in one. You read the stats wrong, ignoring the polling sample bias that’s everywhere. You just read the misleading information, supplied to you not by Jim Feist but by a mainstream media knowingly in the tank for Obama. All of it means that you see an Obama campaign and can’t even recognize that they aren’t there for a winning season. Ever see

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 12:36 PM

The gambling favorite has won every election that I could research. Its called “predictive markets” and they are more accurate than polls. The stock market and capitalism is based on this BTW. I hope you realize polls are only one data point among many. Oh well…live in your fantasyland. I am only providing a public service so that the day after the election Hot Air readers do not wake up and are surprised by the result. Obama has been the odds on favorite from day one and nothing has changed and the odds on favorite at this point has won 100% of the time. The only surprising result at this point is if Romney won. It could happen…just very unlikely.

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 2:32 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Oh, the concern. The dear touching concern… I’m willing to bet you aren’t going to be on here the night of November 6 to take your own medicine, person I’ve never even seen on this blog before.

Are you also aware that this political prop is off-limits to American bettors? Hell, even getting money on Bodog for regular sports wagers is a pain and a half since the anti-gambling legislation passed in 2006. So, yeah, I’m really afraid to hear that European bettors are still in love with Obama.

Oh, by the way, not to contest these numbers that you give by way of hearsay, but you know who definitely has won the election from this point forward? The guy who hits 50% in the Gallup poll. But who’s to trust a 76 year old trend when there are a bunch of Brits throwing £20 wagers at this?

So thank you for your public service there gum… uh Zippy is it with this sock puppet? But the only surprise here would be if you could actually face reality and see that this President is a disaster who is on his way out. It could happen…. just very, ah hell it won’t happen. Enjoy being a troll.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Rep. Heck here in NV was just reported as 50% in polls versus his liberal opponent at 40%. Not only, and more of a key to me, Heck leads his liberal opponent in UNION households at 47% to 46%.

Add in Tarkanian leading in double digits and Heller as well, even with the supposed “small” lead on Rass of 5% today and I still can’t figure out how Hussein is supposed to take NV on Nov 6th. Numbers just do not bear it out.

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Are you also aware that this political prop is off-limits to American bettors? Hell, even getting money on Bodog for regular sports wagers is a pain and a half since the anti-gambling legislation passed in 2006. So, yeah, I’m really afraid to hear that European bettors are still in love with Obama.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 3:08 PM

The vast majority of bets are underground with bookies anyway. It is true that Bush took our freedom to bet on the internet away in 2006. 100% of the predictive markets are for Obama. Don’t shoot the messenger. Predictive markets work best when “insider information” exists. You betcha there is insider information right now.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 4:10 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Great, just one more communist scum shows his face here. Care to tell us how that VERY ACCURATE and PROVEN Colorado State University prediction model shows your communist drug block organizer’s chances next month? Everything else is nothing but last ditch attempt to stem the tide. What’s the word, DESPERATION?

riddick on October 25, 2012 at 4:32 PM

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 4:10 PM

And guess who doesn’t have major Internet websites reporting their action? If you guessed “underground bookies,” you aren’t quite as thick as your posts make you out to be.

But sure, insider information and all. I expect you were talking to a high level campaign strategist just this morning. BTW, where was all that insider information when Hillary was wagered to be the 2008 Democratic nominee? No? How about when Tom Barrett was scheduled to win the Wisconsin recall according to Intrade?

Funny how selective that insider information is, huh? But go on ahead, go be dead money for the bookies. Smart bettors love you guys.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Barry seems to have a hard ceiling of 47%.

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Ironic little number… dont you think? I hope its floating around in Barrys little mind CONSTANTLY!

kcd on October 25, 2012 at 5:00 PM

And guess who doesn’t have major Internet websites reporting their action? If you guessed “underground bookies,” you aren’t quite as thick as your posts make you out to be.

Bookie odds are like the price of oil…it’s an international price that finds its level. Bookies will offload their bets to other people to lower their risk if it becomes one-sided. There is no “local” market.

But sure, insider information and all. I expect you were talking to a high level campaign strategist just this morning.

I have no insider information, but someone does, and they are betting on Obama.

BTW, where was all that insider information when Hillary was wagered to be the 2008 Democratic nominee? No? How about when Tom Barrett was scheduled to win the Wisconsin recall according to Intrade?

Predictive markets are not perfect, just better than polls and any other method. Intrade predicted the electoral college count perfectly in 2004, and it was 1 vote off in 2008. Mitt is the dog in this race, and he is getting the points. I hope he is enjoying the ride on the roof. Woof! Woof!

ZippyZ on October 25, 2012 at 5:43 PM

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