AP poll: Romney up 2 at 47/45, gender gap gone

posted at 10:01 am on October 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Mitt Romney continues his momentum in a poll conducted both before and after the final presidential debate, taking the lead for the first time among likely voters in the AP/GfK poll at 47/45.  Not only are respondents starting to question Barack Obama’s chances of winning the election, but Obama’s gender gap advantage has disappeared:

What gender gap?

Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama’s 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll’s margin of sampling error, the survey shows.

After a commanding first debate performance and a generally good month, Romney has gained ground with Americans on a number of important fronts, including their confidence in how he would handle the economy and their impressions of his ability to understand their problems.

At the same time, expectations that Obama will be re-elected have slipped: Half of voters now expect the president to win a second term, down from 55 percent a month earlier.

A month ago, this series had Obama up one among likely voters, 47/46, although tied without leaners at 44.  Now Romney leads without leaners by three points, 45/42 — and a firm number of 42% for a incumbent is a disaster 12 days out from the election.  When the “could change mind” voters are taken out, it’s even worse — 43/41 for Romney, with the incumbent barely above four out of ten voters.

Let’s check the sample.  The D/R/I 34/30/27 among likely voters for a D+4 advantage, which presumes a lower Republican turnout than either 2008 or 2010, along with a Democratic turnout about even with the midterms.  I suspect that’s a little optimistic for Democrats, and that we’re likely to see an even-up turnout in the exit polling.

There is more bad news in the data for Obama.  While he’s still seen as relatively favorable among likely voters (51/45, +6), Romney now has a +10 favorability rating at 52/42.  Romney has a seven-point lead on trust on the economy (51/44) and eight points on the deficit (51/43).  Romney now has a one-point edge on protecting the country at 47/46, a big change from last month’s six-point advantage for Obama at 51/45.  That has to be the Benghazi effect.

The AP/GFK topline report does not have the crosstab info by demographic, but the AP reports on a couple of key points:

Romney’s pitch to women has been focused squarely on the economy, making the case that what women want most is to ensure their families and their country are on a solid financial footing. The poll shows that message appears to be taking root.

A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

Similarly, Obama’s lead among women as the candidate who better understands the people’s problems has narrowed considerably, from a 58-36 Obama advantage last month to a 50-43 Obama edge now.

We’ve been seeing the gender gap disappear for several weeks in other polling.  If Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast.


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Romney leading by 2 points with a D+4 sample? Yeah, Obama’s done.

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 10:04 AM

What is wrong with people? Even in skewed sample polling, Obama should be circling the drain. It blows my mind that this is still a close race.

dczombie on October 25, 2012 at 10:04 AM

A little too close for comfort for me. I will breathe again when the spread is closer to 5 points.

bopbottle on October 25, 2012 at 10:04 AM

If Obama can’t reverse that in the next 12 days, he’s toast.

Racist!

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I like toast.

MontanaMmmm on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

…the hell?

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

First Gallup, then Rasmussen, then ABC/Wash Post, and now AP/GfK.

The word “cascade” suggests itself.

Dextrous on October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM

gumbypokey hardest hit.

NCPatriot75 on October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Even with these tight 47/45 polls, the underlying numbers all point to a pretty major Romney victory.

milcus on October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM

“What is wrong with people? Even in skewed sample polling, Obama should be circling the drain. It blows my mind that this is still a close race.

dczombie on October 25, 2012 at 10:04 AM”

You’re unhappy with this poll?

IMO, if this survey was correct, Romney would win.

Obama is very personally popular incumbent. He’s not going to get blown out in a landslide.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Romney leading by 2 points with a D+4 sample? Yeah, Obama’s done.

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Even a slightly skewed sample can yield uncanny results. If you skew in your favor and the other guy is winning, then yeah I have to agree – Obama’s toast.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

“First Gallup,”

Gallup is trending Obama’ way.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

He’s acting like he knows he’s toast, so….

suzyque on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

…the hell?

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Weirdly, not part of Ed’s post……

libfreeordie on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.
…the hell?

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

It was that binder thing and the Honey Boo Boo endorsement that made the difference.

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

He’s toast. Best two words I’ve heard today.

parteagirl on October 25, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Paging Richard Mourdock….

Verloc on October 25, 2012 at 10:10 AM

One lesson to remember from this article, for future elections:

A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

The lesson is that ten point swings are possible in one month.

And further, it means that most polls taken over the summer are virtually meaningless.

Dextrous on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Toast. Obama’s desperation is a better measurement at this point than polls.

cartooner on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

OT: These video ads in the sidebar are driving me nuts! They won’t pause or turn down or off. Help!

parteagirl on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Even with these tight 47/45 polls, the underlying numbers all point to a pretty major Romney victory.

milcus on October 25, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Let’s not think that way. We need to play it like we’re a couple touchdowns down through Election Day.

That being said, the Romney campaign is operating like they are winning. The Obama campaign is operating like they’ve already lost and are just waiting for the long slog to be over.

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

It appears thatthe debates introduced low info Americans to the real Mitt Romney and the real Barack Hussein Obama. they were please with the former and appalled at the later.

Yep. Obama’s toast.

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

According to polls outside the USA, Obama is a big hit around the world 50-9. The rest are voting for Putin.

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaa, ‘Bama!

Liam on October 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.

…the hell?

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Really. Gotta wonder how they cooked the numbers to accomplish that.

ElectricPhase on October 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

IMO, if this survey was correct, Romney would win.

Obama is very personally popular incumbent. He’s not going to get blown out in a landslide.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The next stage of grief: bargaining

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Weirdly, not part of Ed’s post……

libfreeordie on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

You explain it then, numbnuts.

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:15 AM

From the AP article:

A month ago, Romney’s advantage among men was 13 percentage points. Now, it’s down to 5 points, with most of the shift toward Obama coming among unmarried men.

I’m highly suspect of this, it seems to be going against the trend. I hope Ed explores this further and gives his opinion on it.

Cavalry on October 25, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Really. Gotta wonder how they cooked the numbers to accomplish that.

ElectricPhase on October 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM

It kind of goes hand-in-hand with that “Obama won the debates” vs. “Romney wins on internals” doesn’t it?

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Gallup is trending Obama’ way.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Thank you, Mr. Silver.

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:16 AM

But mitt is a bull$h!tter
-dear leader

cmsinaz on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

“The next stage of grief: bargaining

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

Not really. Always give realistic appraisal of polls…

BTW, big polls of CO and NV coming this afternoon from NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist. Should be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Romney now up on “protecting the country,” too.

So sorry, Gumbo.

BigAlSouth on October 25, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Must remember to buy cigars in the duty-free shop. Ill need some early November!

Valkyriepundit on October 25, 2012 at 10:18 AM

See, this is why polls are garbage. Let’s look at the internals: 82% of the people they randomly contacted said they were registered to vote. Since only about 70% of adults actually are registered to vote, right out of the gate we know their sample is either skewed, lying or both.

Then we learn that 75% of all respondents voted in 2008. That’s already way too high–actual turnout was 62% of registered voters. But that’s 75% of all respondents, of whom only 82% even claimed to be registered. So of registered voters, that’s 91% turnout. Even Australia only gets 80% turnout, and voting in Australia is mandatory–you’re actually punished in court if you fail to vote.

Next, 72% of all respondents are “completely certain” to vote, meaning we can expect 88% turnout come Election Day. Whoo! Looks like long lines, folks–better show up early.

In all, 839 people make it through the AP’s “likely” voter screen, for an expected turnout of 70%. Again: In 2008, with teeming hordes of first-time voters rushing to the polls to pull the lever for The Lightbringer, turnout was 62%.

All. Polls. Are. Garbage. Even those like this one that show Romney kicking Obama’s raggedy Communist a$$.

Fabozz on October 25, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Gallup is trending Obama’ way.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Yes it is. Next poll will provide a D+12 sample to show Obama leading in all demographics and to get his favorability rating just past 50%….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Weirdly, not part of Ed’s post……

libfreeordie on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Because Romney is winning men by 9 on average per Nate Silver.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:19 AM

And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men.
…the hell?

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Really. Gotta wonder how they cooked the numbers to accomplish that.

ElectricPhase on October 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Over sampled minority and gay men?

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Voted early in Texas yesterday. It’s a fine day when an American can go to the polls and vote against worthless Democrats and for responsible Republicans.

Had to wait 20 minutes to vote and we have early voting up until the election, including weekends. I live in a very Republican area so it’s a good sign.

NoDonkey on October 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

BTW, big polls of CO and NV coming this afternoon from NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist. Should be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Big polls from Rasmussen today in Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Are we having fun yet?

sentinelrules on October 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Not really. Always give realistic appraisal of polls…

BTW, big polls of CO and NV coming this afternoon from NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist. Should be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Gotta give you credit for your “glass half-full” optimism. Sorry it won’t help you come Nov. 6th.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 10:19 AM

The Kal Penn/Reggie Love Survey Company?

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

It is kinda refreshing to see the cartoon character twist himself around and finally admit that his messiah won’t lose in a landslide. He did infer that the won would lose however. That right there needs to be capture for future reference.

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:21 AM

“In a recent Daily Kos poll, Obama is ahead 98% vs 2%.

Those two-percenters have been banned from the site.”

Liam on October 25, 2012 at 10:21 AM

BTW, big polls of CO and NV coming this afternoon from NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist. Should be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Sorry, but nothing from NBC/WSJ/Marist is worth the attention at this point. Their poll samples are laughable.

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 10:22 AM

BTW, big polls of CO and NV coming this afternoon from NBC/Wall St Journal/Marist. Should be fun!

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Fun-ny I think you meant.

Even PPP was tweeting guffaws at Marist’s state polls last Thursday.

Michigan: 47/47

FMWB is a Democrat polling firm, FYI.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Release the D+25s!

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Time for uterus, version 2.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Let’s not think that way. We need to play it like we’re a couple touchdowns down through Election Day.

That being said, the Romney campaign is operating like they are winning. The Obama campaign is operating like they’ve already lost and are just waiting for the long slog to be over.

Happy Nomad on October 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I have said all along that Romney will win by at least 4 with over 300 EV’s. However, I have cautioned all along that Republicans should all go out and vote, as though this is a close election. Not so much for Romney, but because it will win the Senate seats for the Republican candidates in PA, WI, OH, VA, FL, CT, ME, NV, and even MO.

milcus on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Folks, forget the polls even those favoring us… Romney is going to win the elections…

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Obama down 2 and at 45 in a freaking D+4 Associated Press poll 12 days before the election.

The fat lady wants breakfast, gumby.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Release the D+25s!

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Quite frankly, I’m amazed some “reputable” pollster hasn’t tried it already….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Release the D+25s!

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Ain’t that the truth. Anything to try and save teh one.
Smells like desperation.

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

“Well, that’s a bullshitter, I can tell.”’”

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 10:27 AM

“Michigan: 47/47

FMWB is a Democrat polling firm, FYI.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:22 AM”

If Obama or Romney thought that was even close to what was going on, both candidates would be there ASAP.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Time for uterus, version 2.

bayview on October 25, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Since that seems played out now, I kind of expect them to go back to the class warfare or play the race card. Funny how they can’t come up with anything new.

Bitter Clinger on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Obama is very personally popular incumbent. He’s not going to get blown out in a landslide.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

yeah…no. mitt’s leading on favorables, women, economy, handling of deficit and protecting country.

Gallup is trending Obama’ way.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

yeah…no. mitt’s been steady at or above 50 gallup consustently, 0 hasn’t been able to crack 50 – devastating for an incumbent at this stage in the game; past week’s 40 natl surveys mitts is at or above 50% in 11…barry ? one, just one poll.

runner on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

*** Question for Ed:

I’ve read here and elsewhere that the best predictor for the result of a Presidential Election is the incumbent’s job approval.

O seems pretty solid lately at 49+ %. Have we been ignoring this lately? Should Romney enthusiasm be tempered?

carson53 on October 25, 2012 at 10:29 AM

It’ll be a relief once the election is over and the DNC stops paying Pokey to post here. I’m sure he can’t wait ether.

WisRich on October 25, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I’d say some of these polls will become more and more freaky in the next few days. At some point they will go a bridge too far and pollsters will jump ship, and Dems will start the circular firing squad. Let’s hope they turn on the media for not carrying enough of their water.

I’m sure Chuckie Todd doesn’t have much of an appetite this morning.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:30 AM

If Obama or Romney thought that was even close to what was going on, both candidates would be there ASAP.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Give it time, you said the same thing about Wisconsin several days ago.

sentinelrules on October 25, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Still waiting for Obama’s October surprise…

Khun Joe on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 AM

After seeing the last D+9 poll for Ohio, I’m thinking pollsters are just trying to get RCP to paint Ohio blue or make it appear more “in play” than it truly is.

At one point I really thought Ohio was in contention. Now I think it is going Romney/Ryan. Makes me wonder about WI, PA, and MI at this point.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 AM

If Obama or Romney thought that was even close to what was going on, both candidates would be there ASAP.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Why don’t we see what happens.

12 days left buddy.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012

…you were bullied and beat up a lot as a kid weren’t you?
I can see why!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

“O seems pretty solid lately at 49+ %. Have we been ignoring this lately? Should Romney enthusiasm be tempered?

carson53 on October 25, 2012 at 10:29 AM”

A very good, realistic question, which I hope people try to answer.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I’m waiting to see a faceless Julia at a Romney rally. Should be soon…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

*** Question for Ed:

I’ve read here and elsewhere that the best predictor for the result of a Presidential Election is the incumbent’s job approval.

O seems pretty solid lately at 49+ %. Have we been ignoring this lately? Should Romney enthusiasm be tempered?

carson53 on October 25, 2012 at 10:29 AM

49+ from the same D++++++++++ polls? Why isn’t he getting 49 and 50% “vote” from likely voters then?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

He’s not going to get blown out in a landslide.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Someone save this comment for after the election!

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Not really. Always give realistic appraisal of polls…

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:17 AM

What a laugh. You’re a pathetic hack.

Red Cloud on October 25, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Gallup is trending Obama’ way.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM

While Rasmussen, the most accurate 2008 pollster, is widening. In fact, Rasmussen and Gallup are starting to nearly mirror each other. They also both use enormous samples.

The Count on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Big polls from Rasmussen today in Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Are we having fun yet?

sentinelrules on October 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Haven’t seen them yet, but Rasmussen’s Swing State tracker says Romney leads 50-46. Since that sample includes PA and MI, it’s possible that the gap is closing in those states, and OH might be turning red. IMHO, Romney has already won NC, but VA and PA will be interesting.

Steve Z on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Mitt will win over 300 EC. Mitt will win Michigan, Ohio, PA, NC, Florida, VA, WI, NH, Iowa,and Nevada.

BroncosRock on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

ohio is 50/50; late breakers break for challenger- statistical fact; ohio is giving barry and his lame bitter clinger supporters lots of indigestion, that’s for sure.

runner on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Ignore claymation thread jacker.

hawkdriver on October 25, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Someone save this comment for after the election!

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Done.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:35 AM

“O seems pretty solid lately at 49+ %. Have we been ignoring this lately? Should Romney enthusiasm be tempered?

carson53 on October 25, 2012 at 10:29 AM”

A very good, realistic question, which I hope people try to answer.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

You were coming across last night as pretty smug, expecting accolades on Nov. 6. You’re the one who needs some tempering.

Again, my replica gladius remains available for you to throw yourself upon on Election Day if you lose.

Liam on October 25, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

They did… Biden was in Ohio yesterday!

(When I think of the Kraken, I think of a monster so incredibly indiscriminately destructive that it doesn’t matter what “side” you’re on… both sides want to avoid it!)

dominigan on October 25, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Folks, forget the polls even those favoring us… Romney is going to win the elections…

mnjg on October 25, 2012 at 10:26 AM

After all these weeks, haven’t you learned yet that the word “election” in this case is singular, not plural? Please pay attention.

Dextrous on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

A very good, realistic question, which I hope people try to answer.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Yes, why don’t you guys ignore all the LV polls that you don’t like and focus on the RV polls that you do.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

At one point I really thought Ohio was in contention. Now I think it is going Romney/Ryan. Makes me wonder about WI, PA, and MI at this point.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 AM

…don’t worry about Michigan…next to California, New York, and Mass….there is a lot of heavy brain cell damage in this state due to the atmosphere or something…whereas PA, WI and MN…seem to be clearing the air!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Ignore claymation thread jacker.

hawkdriver on October 25, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I prefer to beat him about the head and shoulders mercilessly with a thorny stick.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Call me for current rates…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

After seeing the last D+9 poll for Ohio, I’m thinking pollsters are just trying to get RCP to paint Ohio blue or make it appear more “in play” than it truly is.

At one point I really thought Ohio was in contention. Now I think it is going Romney/Ryan. Makes me wonder about WI, PA, and MI at this point.

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:31 AM

That is all that is going on. Keep stuff in play. Save face for a day or two. Hope for a miracle.

As the Dems are borrowing money now, I hope they borrow a few hundred million and blow it on keeping Ohio in “play”. No trend looks good for them. No intenal split looks good for them. No turnout model looks good for them. It’s over, Romney will win, let’s just hope the Dems spend themselves into so much campaign debt that they will be behind on money for the next generation.

I guarantee that the Obama campaign isn’t looking at poll “results” anymore. They are looking at internals and turnouts, and they know it’s bad for Obama.

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

“Mitt will win over 300 EC. Mitt will win Michigan, Ohio, PA, NC, Florida, VA, WI, NH, Iowa,and Nevada.

BroncosRock on October 25, 2012 at 10:34 AM”

That unrealistic nonsense is why I have to be here.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

I understand. I did that to the verbose one yesterday. It felt good.

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

A very good, realistic question, which I hope people try to answer.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:32 AM

There’s no way to accurately answer it because there are too many polls out there with skewed samples. And someone who knows better will have to answer this for me, but is Gallup’s approval rating based on adults or actual voters(likely or registered)?

Plus it’s far more relevant to look at how Obama is rated on specific issues such as the economy. I think his race and supposed likeability will always keep him in the mid-to-high 40′s in approval no matter how big of a SCOAMF he is.

Doughboy on October 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

That unrealistic nonsense is why I have to be here.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

That and no job prospects.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Visualize Obama’s concession speech.

NoDonkey on October 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

No. You don’t have to be here, as you did not have to be at Free Republican and Ace’s, either.

kingsjester on October 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

… and focus on the RV polls that you do.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

gumby has been reduced to grasping at any Eeyore or moby comment that comes this way.

Eeyores and mobys are only too happy to oblige.

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 10:39 AM

…don’t worry about Michigan…next to California, New York, and Mass….there is a lot of heavy brain cell damage in this state due to the atmosphere or something…whereas PA, WI and MN…seem to be clearing the air!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

MN? Now that IS interesting considering their presidential voting history… (sorry Ed).

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:40 AM

That unrealistic nonsense is why I have to be here.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Oh, you’re a public servant now?

Fine.

Go get me a cup of coffee.

Liam on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Call me for current rates…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

You’ll be busy. Do you give discounts for volume?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

MSNBC: “Women are racist”

/

faraway on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

That unrealistic nonsense is why I have to be here.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:38 AM

…you’re sitting there in just your socks… in moms basement… whacking…and plugging up her drains!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

“Michigan: 47/47

FMWB is a Democrat polling firm, FYI.

Chuck Schick on October 25, 2012 at 10:22 AM”

If Obama or Romney thought that was even close to what was going on, both candidates would be there ASAP.

gumbyandpokey on October 25, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Nope, Michigan is meaningless…..if Romney wins Michigan, it means he has already won in Ohio, likely WI and and possibly Pa. i.e. the race is over and the blow out is on a roll.

If Obama carries Michigan, it simply means the blow out will not be as embarrassing.

Once again the gumpy analysis,is 100% in error.

Animal60 on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Release the Kraken!

D-fusit on October 25, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Call me for current rates…

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:37 AM

When Gov. Scott won re-election, I put the Kraken on YouTube and cranked the speakers waayyyyyy up.

Neighbors ran out of their houses, dogs barked in the street.

*sigh* Good times….

Turtle317 on October 25, 2012 at 10:43 AM

You’ll be busy. Do you give discounts for volume?

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

In this market, ya have to, especially if you want repeat business.

Uh, tie up the virgin with Velcro, please. Those knots are annoying when you have multiple bookings.

Kraken on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

…you’re sitting there in just your socks… in moms basement… whacking…and plugging up her drains!

KOOLAID2 on October 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

You write something like that again, and I’m going to send you the bill for my brain bleach. ~S~

Liam on October 25, 2012 at 10:44 AM

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