Rasmussen: All tied in Ohio

posted at 9:21 am on October 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Did the final presidential debate move the numbers in Ohio, perhaps the most critical of the swing states to both campaigns?  Rasmussen polled likely voters in the Buckeye State and found that the answer was … no, not really.  What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates. Only one percent (1%) of Democrats fall into that category, along with 12% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Last week  and for most of the last month, the president has held a one-point advantage in the state. The Obama campaign has a very strong ground game in the Buckeye State. Ohio allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, the president has a 10-point lead. But that’s a smaller advantage than he had a week ago.

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand.  The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.  That’s worth keeping in mind as indies break slightly toward Obama, both without leaners (43/40) and with leaners (45/43).  However, having an incumbent at 45% among independents with 13 days to go is not a good sign for re-election, especially when independents trust Romney a little more on the economy (47/41) and on energy policy (52/42) in the coal-rich region.  Romney has neutered the gender gap; he leads among men (50/44) by the same amount as Obama leads among women (51/45).

Overall, there are a few key indicators.  Romney has a slight edge on favorability at +6 (51/46) while Obama’s at zero (49/49).  Romney is up seven for trust on the economy (51/44), with the exact same numbers on energy.  Obama has a slight edge on national security at 50/46, but that’s within the margin of error — a big problem for an incumbent President.  More people say that the economy is getting worse rather than better (41/35), and they are more pessimistic about a second Obama term than a first Romney term in that regard.  If Obama gets re-elected, slightly more people expect the economy to worsen rather than improve (37/40), but Romney optimism prevails by 10 points (46/36).

I’d say that this state looks ready to break narrowly into Romney’s column.  Voters are clearly not sold on Obamanomics, and a final push by Team Romney on the issues of the economy and energy policy could win the state this week and next.  One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

Post Debate Media Depression

By Larry Johnson on October 23, 2012 at 8:30 PM in Current Affairs

* Bumped Up *

I am on a plane that departed Fort Lauderdale 10 minutes ago (seat 11a for any of you media mavens on board and using GoGo) and am surrounded by a legion of the mainstream media. I anticipated there might be one or two Washington press or political types on the plane. Boy was I wrong. They are all here.

I was standing behind Chris Matthews in the security line. He is looking very unhappy this morning. Having been on his show several times in 2001 and 2002, I know his happy face and I know when he is in a major funk. He was very funky today.

Immediately to my right (on the other side of the security line) was F. Chuck Todd, oblivious to all around him, talking on the phone. I heard him say, “Yeah, Obama’s numbers are collapsing.”

Once through security I spied David Corn, Howard Feinstein, Major Garret and Candy Crowley. This looks like a frigging press charter plane for the Obama campaign. The average American really cannot appreciate the level of incest that is the so-called mainstream media. They are their own echo chamber. The vast majority are the geeks who were tortured in high school. That’s why they hate Mitt Romney so. He reminds them of the popular, successful kids they were not.

Link

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 12:57 PM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

You’re the racist.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 12:58 PM

He wins NH by 2, he certainly wins OH.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Here in NH we fired nearly all of our Democrats in 2010, an Inconvenient Truth that the Democrats at WMUR and UNH are desperately trying to ignore. Their “polling” here on this race has been an absolute joke.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM

A friend of mine in Ohio volunteering for Romney pointed out why Ryan skipped over to PA over the weekend.

25% of eastern Ohio Democrats are voting for Romney according to their internal polls.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Romney’s lead in Gallup down to 3. Obama seems to have gotten a bump from the 3rd debate.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Romney’s lead in Gallup down to 3. Obama seems to have gotten a bump from the 3rd debate.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Big Romney day rolled off today too. Sundays and Tuesdays are big Obama days like clockwork. Nothing to panic about.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Gallup:

R 50
O 47

R +3

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Post Debate Media Depression

By Larry Johnson

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I remember Larry. He became infamous in 2001, when just a couple of months before the 9/11 attacks he wrote:

Judging from news reports and the portrayal of villains in our popular entertainment, Americans are bedeviled by fantasies about terrorism. They seem to believe that terrorism is the greatest threat to the United States and that it is becoming more widespread and lethal. They are likely to think that the United States is the most popular target of terrorists. And they almost certainly have the impression that extremist Islamic groups cause most terrorism…. None of these beliefs are based in fact…. While terrorism is not vanquished, in a world where thousands of nuclear warheads are still aimed across the continents, terrorism is not the biggest security challenge confronting the United States, and it should not be portrayed that way.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Romney’s lead in Gallup down to 3. Obama seems to have gotten a bump from the 3rd debate.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:02 PM

It w/b foolish for anyone to celebrate at this time.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:06 PM

It w/b foolish for anyone to celebrate at this time.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I agree. It is still anyone’s race. That is why GOTV for Republicans is vital. Even if Romney is winning, no Republican can stay home because the effect on down ballot races in places like NV, FL, VA, OH, MO, NV, WI and PA is huge. A good turnout gets us the WH and 53-55 seats in the Senate. Complacency might cost us the WH and leave us with 48-49 seats.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Gallops numbers suck today….what the heck? Doesn’t make sense?

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 1:14 PM

The average American really cannot appreciate the level of incest that is the so-called mainstream media. They are their own echo chamber. The vast majority are the geeks who were tortured in high school. That’s why they hate Mitt Romney so. He reminds them of the popular, successful kids they were not.

Heh, thanks Chuck Schick

————-
milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:09 PM

2012 is not 2008. This time it’s about survival.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Things are looking good for Romney. With Ohio and a lot of other states all tied up, all it takes would be the next awful jobs report to make it a landslide for Romney, which is inevitable seeing how much corporate earnings and the stock market has been tanking.

November 2 is what is keeping gumby up at nights, trust me.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Gallops numbers suck today….what the heck? Doesn’t make sense?

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 1:14 PM

You folks are really obsessed with the polls going up and down one point here and one point there… Stop this silly obsession and focus on the fundamentals of this race that have been constant for many weeks if not months… All the fundamentals and metrics about winning or losing the elections are against Obama…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Political independents break for Romney by a 12-percentage-point margin on the subject, a high for the campaign.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Gallops numbers suck today….what the heck? Doesn’t make sense?

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 1:14 PM

No need to freak out. It’s not like the national polls are all that important in the long run, however people are focused too much on Obama’s number. Romney hasn’t budged from 50% yet.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Everything was going great for Barack Obama until about 9:04 on the night of Oct. 3, when Mitt Romney startled everybody by refusing to live up to his caricature as The Worst Candidate Ever.

Romney’s late-game comeback — an unexpected assertion of presidential competence in front of 67 million viewers — robbed Obama of his momentum and forced the president’s team to make a subtle yet significant change to their closing argument in the critical last two weeks of the 2012 campaign.

Everything was going great for Barack Obama until about 9:04 on the night of Oct. 3, when Mitt Romney startled everybody by refusing to live up to his caricature as The Worst Candidate Ever.

Romney’s late-game comeback — an unexpected assertion of presidential competence in front of 67 million viewers — robbed Obama of his momentum and forced the president’s team to make a subtle yet significant change to their closing argument in the critical last two weeks of the 2012 campaign.

Freaks and clowns – they think the American people are all dumb.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Sorry, the 2nd quote s/b

“The Obama organization did the single best job of destroying a candidate I have ever seen in my career, from May to September,” said pollster Peter Brown, who conducts the Quinnipiac University poll of battleground states.

“But that all went out the window when Romney showed people that the caricature of him as a clown was false. … Now he’s got to make the case for himself. If he was ahead now, my guess is he wouldn’t have taken the chance of putting all of this out there.”

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 1:27 PM

All the fundamentals and metrics about winning or losing the elections are against Obama…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Exactly what I’ve been on my soapbox about for a couple days now. Look at all of the internals. Use the internal splits and apply them to even an optimistic D+ split for Obama in the swing states. What you see is that Obama is toast.

As I’ve said before. It’s over, and both campaigns know it.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Big Romney day rolled off today too. Sundays and Tuesdays are big Obama days like clockwork. Nothing to panic about

How on earth did you figure that out?

earlgrey133 on October 24, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Gallops numbers suck today….what the heck? Doesn’t make sense?

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Jeez, chillax already….vote, that’s all you need to do at this point. let the pollsters do eir job, and you do yours!!

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 1:39 PM

All of the internals show higher Dem votes for Romney than Republican votes for Obama. All of the internals show Independents by 6 or 7% voting for Romney.

Math is hard. But math does not lie. It’s over. It was over at the end of the first debate when Obama voters found what a childish fraud he is and that Romney was competent and likeable.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Romney’s lead in Gallup down to 3. Obama seems to have gotten a bump from the 3rd debate.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 1:02 PM

gumpy spewing his load in 3…2….1……

“Mommy…..I need clean underwear!”

Animal60 on October 24, 2012 at 1:44 PM

You’re the racist.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 12:58 PM

And a homophobe.

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Math is hard. But math does not lie. It’s over. It was over at the end of the first debate when Obama voters found what a childish fraud he is and that Romney was competent and likeable.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 1:43 PM

To put Ohio another way – no matter what poll you take, even the ones with Romney down 3, they have Romney winning indies by anywhere from 7 to 24(!)

In 2008, indies were 30% of the turnout and Obama won then by 8. .3 x 8 = 2.4 percentage points of total vote.

So CONSERVATIVELY take 2.4 from Obama and add 2.4 to Obama. That’s a net 4.8 to Romney. Obama won Ohio by 4.6.

And of course, everything will not be equal. Ohio will be nowhere near D+5 and all the Bush voters who stayed home will be out in force.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Gallops numbers suck today….what the heck? Doesn’t make sense?

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Law suits?

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Another reason O’Keefe’s organization Veritas gets my contributions.

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 1:56 PM

And as for the SUSA poll that had Obama up 3 – the sample voted for Obama by 11 – 250% of the actual 2008 result. And Romney STILL won those who voted in 2008 (for anyone) by 2.

Again – even oversampling democrats, Romney still won those who voted in 2008 by 2.

So if that’s true, Obama will have to completely run the table on the non-2008 Ohio voters. Not a chance.

Which jibes with this:

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

One other SUSA OH look: Rom gets 85% JM + 14% BO 2008 supporters. O’s numbers are 78% BO + 8% JM. With exact same voters from 08, Rom up 52-48%

So Obama will have to get a much better turnout than 2008 to win Ohio.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Law suits?

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Yeah. I think you’re right. I was of the same mind. Loving these swing state polls! Looking good!

Minorcan Maven on October 24, 2012 at 2:13 PM

And of course, everything will not be equal. Ohio will be nowhere near D+5 and all the Bush voters who stayed home will be out in force.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 1:51 PM

And that is what I’ve been saying. It doesn’t matter how optimistic you get as long as you aren’t going overboard. Let’s say D+4 in Ohio. Meaning as good as 2008. Meaning 2010 R+1 won’t ever happen again. You have to claim identical crossover R’s and D’s and an I split of less that 7 favoring Romney for Obama to squeak out a 0.2% win.

I don’t know of any of these polls that are showing internals any where near this. Go with D+4…right. Even then if the internals are D85/15 (Generous to Obama), R88/12 (Generous to O), and I53/47 (Generous to O), you end up with Romney winning by 1.7%.

Anybody in their right mind think this is going to be D+4 in Ohio?

It’s over. They know it. And given that this has been a well run campaign, I have every confidence that Romney 2012 won’t drop the ball on voter turnout.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Exactly what I’ve been on my soapbox about for a couple days now. Look at all of the internals. Use the internal splits and apply them to even an optimistic D+ split for Obama in the swing states. What you see is that Obama is toast.

As I’ve said before. It’s over, and both campaigns know it.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Totally agree. Any candidate who is winning independents by more than 3 points is going to win the elections… This candidate is Romney…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Anybody in their right mind think this is going to be D+4 in Ohio?

One more thing. how do you predict voter turnout? Enthusiasm and voter registration. Who has the lead there? R/R/R Republican, Romney, Ryan.

By any measure everything points to Romney. I’m just not ready yet to call it a landslide.

The best part of the whole thing is that the media and the Dems have shot all the political and financial ammo they have. They have nothing left. Every advantage belonged to the media and the Dems. Epic total fail.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 2:22 PM

You misunderstand. Pollsters, from Rasmussen to Survey USA have been asking people if they voted early. And if so, for whom did they vote. Amongst that slice of the electorate which seems to consistently land between 15-25% of people polled people are saying they have already voted for Obama by very wide margins.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Ok, I understand that. However, the largest sample size on RCP is a little over 1900 (running from 10/18-10/19). If you filter out those that voted early, the sample size is probably a quarter of that at most. Statistically, the MOE is much higher with a smaller sample. I’m just not buying the +10.

COgirl on October 24, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Here’s some other factoids from the Rasmussen Ohio poll:

* R has a +5 favourability rating (51/46)

* O has a 0 favourability rating (49/49)

* R has a +3 “very” favourable rating (38/35 “very” unfavourable)

* O has a -3 “very” favourable rating (37/40 “very” unfavourable)

* R +5 trust advantage on the economy (51 R/44 O)

* 46% economy will get better under Republican control of the presidency and Congress

* 36% economy will get worse under Republican control of the presidency and Congress

* 40% economy will get better under Democratic control of the presidency and Congress

* 37% economy will get better under Democratic control of the presidency and Congress

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:16 PM

In 2008, 1,351,226 absentee ballots were requested. 703,461 Democrats and Republicans returned their absentee ballots. 63% of the returned ballots came from Democrats. 37% came from Republicans.

In 2012, 1,116,643 absentee ballots have been requested. Thus far, 574,331 Democrats and Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 56% (322,647) of the returned ballots came from Democrats and 44% (251,684) have come from Republicans.

Democrats are down 11.1%.

Republicans are up 18.9%.

Swing: 30%.

Chart of the Day: Poll Average and Actual Results, 1972-2004, True Incumbents

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4