Rasmussen: All tied in Ohio

posted at 9:21 am on October 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Did the final presidential debate move the numbers in Ohio, perhaps the most critical of the swing states to both campaigns?  Rasmussen polled likely voters in the Buckeye State and found that the answer was … no, not really.  What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates. Only one percent (1%) of Democrats fall into that category, along with 12% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Last week  and for most of the last month, the president has held a one-point advantage in the state. The Obama campaign has a very strong ground game in the Buckeye State. Ohio allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, the president has a 10-point lead. But that’s a smaller advantage than he had a week ago.

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand.  The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.  That’s worth keeping in mind as indies break slightly toward Obama, both without leaners (43/40) and with leaners (45/43).  However, having an incumbent at 45% among independents with 13 days to go is not a good sign for re-election, especially when independents trust Romney a little more on the economy (47/41) and on energy policy (52/42) in the coal-rich region.  Romney has neutered the gender gap; he leads among men (50/44) by the same amount as Obama leads among women (51/45).

Overall, there are a few key indicators.  Romney has a slight edge on favorability at +6 (51/46) while Obama’s at zero (49/49).  Romney is up seven for trust on the economy (51/44), with the exact same numbers on energy.  Obama has a slight edge on national security at 50/46, but that’s within the margin of error — a big problem for an incumbent President.  More people say that the economy is getting worse rather than better (41/35), and they are more pessimistic about a second Obama term than a first Romney term in that regard.  If Obama gets re-elected, slightly more people expect the economy to worsen rather than improve (37/40), but Romney optimism prevails by 10 points (46/36).

I’d say that this state looks ready to break narrowly into Romney’s column.  Voters are clearly not sold on Obamanomics, and a final push by Team Romney on the issues of the economy and energy policy could win the state this week and next.  One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.


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I’ve always enjoyed reading the comments as much as the posts but you guys have to got to drop this GumbyPokey banter. This election is so important and you guys are wasting so much time on this tool. Let him go and concentrate on winning this election.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Agreed. Dumbpoke has highjacked HA too many times! Just ignore the stupid posts and he will go away. Dont oil the squeeky wheel!

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Clearly, judging from the picture the results of this poll are not from “OHIO”, but from its sister state, “OIHI”.

Frankly I’m betting this image was reversed in PS. Nobody’s this dumb. Not even in Michigan.

ChipDWood on October 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

You’re welcome. I don’t take anything for certain, but I do know that, at this point in 2008 (actually a lot earlier), I KNEW McCain was going to lose.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Clearly, judging from the picture the results of this poll are not from “OHIO”, but from its sister state, “OIHI”.

I’ve heard that this is one of the 57 states. Has anyone verified this? /sarc

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I’ve always enjoyed reading the comments as much as the posts but you guys have to got to drop this GumbyPokey banter. This election is so important and you guys are wasting so much time on this tool. Let him go and concentrate on winning this election.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

No, we really can’t. Hot Air is a very high traffic conservative blog. GumbyPokey’s job – and others like him – is to convince anyone who comes into the comments section that Republicans are losing and that they should give up, stay home, and not vote. If we stop responding to GB people who don’t keep up with the comments section religiously may assume that he’s an honest person, that his fairy tales are correct, and that we don’t have a counterargument.

Of course, Ace has avoided this problem neatly by banning him and other obvious trolls/paid Obama campaign workers like him. It’s a shame that this blog’s authors don’t follow his example.

Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

I’ve never understood what the point of lefties coming to a conservative site to argue over poll results.

The result will be what it is on election day. What is the point – libfreeordie or gumbypokey – to your incessant need to come here and argue that our interpretation of the polls is wrong?

The only possible point is that you are attempting to somehow reduce conservative/republican enthusiasm. Otherwise, it is just pissing in the wind. It’s not an argument over strategy, or substance, or policy, or who the better candidate is.

It’s just trying to stomp on our enthusiasm and hope. that, far more than anything else you say or do – defines liberalism. It is not enough to run peoples’ lives to the minutest detail through gov’t – you have to do everything in your power to try and quash any joy or enthusiasm anyone who disagrees with you may have.

Whether you are right or wrong in your interpretation of the polls, your need to do this reveals your character – or lack thereof. It would never occur to me to go to a lefty site and argue that some poll showing an Obama lead is wrong because of x, y or z. Why would I care how lefties on the internet are viewing the polls?

Your need to piss on anything and everything related to people you disagree with politically is a mental disorder.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Now I know why you are an Obama voter. You are ignorant of the American people, despise them and casually insult them
just like your president
Have you ever lived in the South?

breffnian on October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Nobody has ever exit polled me. But, if they did, I’d lie my azz off and tell them I was democrat and a proud Obama voter.

It would make election night so much more fun.

I want tears and wailing.

trigon on October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand. The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.

Mathematically impossible. To arrive at a tie with independents at 45/52/3 D/R/I and the D/R/I for the whole sample at 36/37/28, you have to have far more Republicans breaking for Obama than Dems breaking for Romney.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Of course, Ace has avoided this problem neatly by banning him and other obvious trolls/paid Obama campaign workers like him. It’s a shame that this blog’s authors don’t follow his example.

Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Exactly. It’s one thing to argue about policy and campaign messages and themes. But what is the purpose here for the arguments they have about interpretation of poll results?

the left must be very worried indeed if they feel the need to try and stomp down republican enthusiasm by coming up with crazy interpretations of the polls.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:55 AM

These emails coming out are blowing the lid off the WH coverup. I hope people are paying close attention to this. Fox reporting the WH knew within MINUTES that terrorists were claiming responsibility for the attack AND the ambassador and his enterage were under siege for hours and still no help or support! The administration stood by and watched all of this unfold and offered no help to those American patriots. This is criminal!!

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

An educated person like yourself knows the “Old South” was always heavily Dem, so I won’t lecture you about it. In fact the Dems of the “Old South” were the reason Civil Rights stalled in Congress for decades – but you also knew that.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I’ve always enjoyed reading the comments as much as the posts but you guys have to got to drop this GumbyPokey banter. This election is so important and you guys are wasting so much time on this tool. Let him go and concentrate on winning this election.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I think we all agree with this. But until Ed bans him, he will hijack every thread dealing with polls, and what he says is so idiotic, that at times it is almost impossible to not reply to.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Agreed.

Note to Ed and Allah: Why not drop the Banhammer on these guys? They’ll be back with a new account broken out of storage within minutes. We could then ban that one, too. Let’s see how many accounts they have registered and how many of them we could get by election day. You could even put a counter up on the Homepage. It would be good clean fun for everybody.

trigon on October 24, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Be honest. If we looked at the HotAir archive from October 2008 wouldn’t we see you making a similar argument about McCain’s chances in PA in that election? PA is the moby dick for the GOP in Presidential races for two decades now. Let it go….

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:39 AM

McCain was polling well in the suburbs and throughout the state. When the bottom dropped out for him nationally, it did in SEPA as well. Obama campaigned very, very hard in Philly and in the suburbs, right up until Election Day, so his campaign sure did not think it was a lock. He made three campaign stops within 10 miles of my house, in addition to doing the big rallies in downtown Philly. His campaign ran saturation TV ads in Philly, which is a very expensive market.

I knew early in he was going to win here because several of my neighbors who are lifelong Republicans told me they were voting for him. And guess what, they are ALL voting for Romney this year. There are thousands and thousands more like them in this area.

You also have to see what is going on in the down-ticket races here. This Congressional district has been one of the swingiest in the country for years, and went hard Democratic in 2006 and 2008, but swung hard Republican in 2010. This year the Dems could find only a weak unknown to run and the DCCC has already thrown in the towel on the race. The same is true of the other two suburban Congressional districts. Remember Joe Sestak? Republicans won his House seat back in 2010 and Dems couldn’t find a decent candidate to run there this time.

Mitt Romney is the perfect Republican candidate for this area and the enthusiasm here for him is off the charts. I am hearing the same thing from friends who live in the Pittsburgh suburbs. This is nothing like the McCain campaign.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 10:58 AM

No, we really can’t. Hot Air is a very high traffic conservative blog. GumbyPokey’s job – and others like him – is to convince anyone who comes into the comments section that Republicans are losing and that they should give up, stay home, and not vote. If we stop responding to GB people who don’t keep up with the comments section religiously may assume that he’s an honest person, that his fairy tales are correct, and that we don’t have a counterargument.

Of course, Ace has avoided this problem neatly by banning him and other obvious trolls/paid Obama campaign workers like him. It’s a shame that this blog’s authors don’t follow his example.

Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Fair enough.It just gets so tiresome to read.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:58 AM

No, we really can’t. Hot Air is a very high traffic conservative blog. GumbyPokey’s job – and others like him – is to convince anyone who comes into the comments section that Republicans are losing and that they should give up, stay home, and not vote. If we stop responding to GB people who don’t keep up with the comments section religiously may assume that he’s an honest person, that his fairy tales are correct, and that we don’t have a counterargument.
Of course, Ace has avoided this problem neatly by banning him and other obvious trolls/paid Obama campaign workers like him. It’s a shame that this blog’s authors don’t follow his example.
Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You are absolutely right. Sometimes the commenters here forget that this isn’t a chat room where only a very small number of people are reading the comments. No, this is a website viewed by a lot more people than there are commenters. It is a privilege for us to be able to post our thoughts here, and people are right to constantly rebut GumbyandPokey’s comments and point out that GumbyandPokey is nothing but a known liberal, Obama-supporting Internet troll who is pretending to be a conservative in order to try to demoralize Republican voters and drive a wedge between different conservative voting groups.

bluegill on October 24, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Problem for obama this year, is the same problem that usually happens to GOP candidates. I don’t see anyway he wins re-election without carrying Ohio. I do see however, ways that Romney could win without OH.

If Romney wins OH on election night, it is all over. The South is gone. obama will not win one state there, not even FL or VA.

Or if Romney wins PA, it could well be over also, because then the math for obama to win would require a little bit of game of twister and alot of calculas.

ConservativePartyNow on October 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Now I know why you are an Obama voter. You are ignorant of the American people, despise them and casually insult them
just like your president
Have you ever lived in the South?

breffnian on October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

haven’t you heard, colorado and florida are the old south…

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Your need to piss on anything and everything related to people you disagree with politically is a mental disorder.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

As an aside and add-on to this comment I made – I see this all the time in other settings. I go to various pop-culture blogs on a regular basis to try and somewhat keep up with what is going on (it’s amazing how quickly you are out of the pop culture loop as you get older).

And even there, lefties just can’t help themselves. They have to throw random insults at conservatives in posts about everything and anything – having nothing to do with politics or conservatives.

The hatred and obsession is mind-boggling. It would never occur to me, were I writing an article about how celebrity “x” is dating celebrity “y”, or any other non-political topic – to randomly throw in ridiculous and ignorant insults at people that I have demonized in my head. It’s sad.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If they’re even, Romney wins.

Coal will win it for Romney, as it should.

Schadenfreude on October 24, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Mathematically impossible. To arrive at a tie with independents at 45/52/3 D/R/I and the D/R/I for the whole sample at 38/39/28,(oops) you have to have far more Republicans breaking for Obama than Dems breaking for Romney.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM

In fact if you brake R’s going 90/10 and Dems going 90/10, I’s going 45/52/3 for Romney, Romney wins by more than a percent.

Mathematically impossible for the final Rasmussen numbers to add up. Something is missing.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Fair enough.It just gets so tiresome to read.
RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Then skip over it. Not everyone who reads this website reads every single blog post or would even know who or what GumbyandPokey is.

bluegill on October 24, 2012 at 11:02 AM

the left must be very worried indeed if they feel the need to try and stomp down republican enthusiasm by coming up with crazy interpretations of the polls.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Mitt is winning now and it’s all they’ve got. It must kill the left to know that their desperate efforts to disspirit conservatives with disinformation (from Axelturfer trolls to fudged unemployment numbers to phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers) and to suppress the Republican vote has had exactly the inverse effect they intended.
Our enthusiasm to get out and vote this sociopath out of office has always been intense, but now there is genuine enthusiasm to vote FOR our candidate, as well, where that might not have been the case three months ago.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Sidenote: Are they still digging on who sent out those fake letters to voters? Wouldnt it be great if they traced that all the way back to brokeAxelrod?

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:08 AM

All tied in OH really means OH+5. If Romney loses OH it is all due to voter fraud.

Going to be a bloodbath on election night when Romney wins: FL, OH, CO, NV, PA, MI, VA, NC, IA.

nazo311 on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

“phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers”

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

They have to throw random insults at conservatives in posts about everything and anything – having nothing to do with politics or conservatives.

The hatred and obsession is mind-boggling. It would never occur to me, were I writing an article about how celebrity “x” is dating celebrity “y”, or any other non-political topic – to randomly throw in ridiculous and ignorant insults at people that I have demonized in my head. It’s sad.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I see this frequently with TV, film and music critics/bloggers. They are so myopic, they really believe everybody agrees with their twisted leftist worldview and that they’re offending nobody with their snide swipes at the right.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Our enthusiasm to get out and vote this sociopath out of office has always been intense, but now there is genuine enthusiasm to vote FOR our candidate, as well, where that might not have been the case three months ago.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM

that’s a good point. I was never enthusiastic for Romney, just for getting rid of Obama. They have managed to make me enthusiastic for Romney.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

“All tied in OH really means OH+5.”

With a R+1 sample? Really?

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:12 AM

“phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers”

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Go away you lying little troll. Your sh** isn’t playing here. Nobody’s buying your tired, weak little act.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Swing State Tracking Poll

•Romney 50% (–)
•Obama 46% (+1)

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Why not?

It makes as much sense as the crap you spew religiously.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Sooo, northern states are voting for obama because he’s black?

Professor, you know you’re a bigot, right?

hawkdriver on October 24, 2012 at 11:15 AM

the real story is that mitt has a bunch of ways to get to 270, barry has one

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:15 AM

““phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers”

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Go away you lying little troll. Your sh** isn’t playing here. Nobody’s buying your tired, weak little act.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Swing State Tracking Poll

•Romney 50% (–)
•Obama 46% (+1)

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM”

Nice rant, but Rasmussen has a tied race in Ohio using a R+1 sample. That is not a good poll for Romney, so feel free to froth at the mouth some more.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Poor hopey changey

http://www2.tbo.com/news/breaking-news/2012/oct/23/2/tickets-still-available-for-obama-campaign-appeara-ar-542160/

Animal60 on October 24, 2012 at 11:11 AM

You know those tickets are expensive, right?

The event is free and open to the public, but tickets are required for entrance.

hawkdriver on October 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM

FYI, Rasmussen includes Pennsylvania in its swing state poll.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Poor hopey changey

http://www2.tbo.com/news/breaking-news/2012/oct/23/2/tickets-still-available-for-obama-campaign-appeara-ar-542160/

Animal60 on October 24, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Yeah, and Romney camp expecting 2 or 3k people to show up and 10,000 showing up?! Hahahaha! Obummer is in big trouble!

All tied in OH really means OH+5. If Romney loses OH it is all due to voter fraud.

Thats my worry.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Someone’s poll is clearly significantly wrong. Rasmussen’s +1 R poll showing a tie versus a bunch of other polls with +5 D showing ties or virtual ties. We’ve also seen wildly different results on how the indies are voting between polls.

My guess is that all of these polls are going to change dramatically closer to election day so at least the last polls they put out are closer to the truth – which is a standard tactic of pollsters – put out polls biased toward your guy until the last possible moment and then put out your best actual poll right before the election to keep your credibility. In this case it is odd b/c Rasumssen has been considered somewhat republican leaning in the past.

Now, don’t take that to mean I claim to know which way the race is going – I’m just pointing out that this is the most I’ve seen polls all over the place this close to a presidential election in a swing state in memory.

Either way, in almost all of the polls, the momentum is in Romney’s favor. Doesn’t mean Obama can’t win – just that right now, absent an October surprise, I would bet on a Romney win based on the polls and momentum.

But, that is your point, to try and quash our belief that Mitt can win. That’s the entire point of you posting on the poll threads, isn’t it?

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

They have managed to make me enthusiastic for Romney.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Actually, Romney has managed to make me enthusiastic for Romney, and I never expected that to be the case.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

If you all will excuse me, I’m frothing at the mouth some more. I’ll let you know when I’m done.

hawkdriver on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Per Twitter, only 3500 to see Obama today in Davenport, Iowa. Romney drew over 15,000 in Denver last night and thousands were turned away.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

“A Republican-run election board in a northern Ohio county sent out voting instructions to several precincts with the wrong date for Election Day and an incorrect description of the polling place location”

Dave Rywall on October 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Nice rant, but Rasmussen has a tied race in Ohio using a R+1 sample. That is not a good poll for Romney, so feel free to froth at the mouth some more.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:16 AM

keep clinging to ohio, it is all you people have.

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

“Per Twitter, only 3500 to see Obama today in Davenport, Iowa. Romney drew over 15,000 in Denver last night and thousands were turned away.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM”

Yeah, let’s compare a daytime event when people are at work vs a nighttime event when people are off work and can attend.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

“keep clinging to ohio, it is all you people have.

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM”

Ohio is all Obama needs.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Actually, Romney has managed to make me enthusiastic for Romney, and I never expected that to be the case.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Agreed to a certain point. But, I’m still concerned that he will end up being more of a “pragmatic” centrist in the end. But I have high hopes that he will continue to surprise me.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Man, the country sure is getting all racist again. Looks like there’s only 47% of voters left that are resisting the racism.

happytobehere on October 24, 2012 at 11:22 AM

so feel free to froth at the mouth some more.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Nah. You bore me, and you’re a liar. I’ll let the dozens of other Hot Air regulars who see through your tired little concern-troll act take it from here.

Remind us again, who is it you want to win this election?

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Nice rant, but Rasmussen has a tied race in Ohio using a R+1 sample. That is not a good poll for Romney, so feel free to froth at the mouth some more.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Yeah, let’s compare a daytime event when people are at work vs a nighttime event when people are off work and can attend.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Tell me again how the auto bailout helps Obama in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 11:23 AM

“phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers”

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Good catch Gummy. To see that the polls are starting to use realistic samples means the end is near. But as I’ve pointed out. You have to have far more R crossovers to get a tie out of that sample. That isn’t happening anywhere in the whole country. Something is missing in that sample. Either the splits are coming from the whole swing state sample, or the figures are being rounded in splits reporting and then again in totals reporting.

Either way, it doesn’t look good for Obama. If he is tied in Ohio, and the whole Swing State poll is Romney +4 or 5, then Romney leads in Fla, Va. NC, Co and Iowa must be tremendous.

Also, why would a tie for Romney be bad, but it’s good for Obama? How does that work? The President cannot win without Ohio. As shown by this Swing State polling, Romney can. Yet they are tied in Ohio with funky math.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 11:24 AM

“A Republican-run election board in a northern Ohio county sent out voting instructions to several precincts with the wrong date for Election Day and an incorrect description of the polling place location”

Dave Rywall on October 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

good to straighten that out before november, hey what about those machines that cast a vote for obama even if one voted for romney… in the swing state of NC?

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:27 AM

‘Toon of the Day: Dems: Obama Destroyed Romney In The Last Two Debates! He Won! Just Wait For That Huge Bounce!

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/10/toon-of-day-dems-obama-destroyed-romney.html

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 11:28 AM

However, having an incumbent at 45% among independents with 13 days to go is not a good sign for re-election, especially when independents trust Romney a little more on the economy (47/41) and on energy policy (52/42) in the coal-rich region. Romney has neutered the gender gap; he leads among men (50/44) by the same amount as Obama leads among women (51/45).

Did Gumby stroke out yet?

mark81150 on October 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I am sooo Hoping for change!

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Ohio is all Obama needs.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

yeah, his firewall is on fire, in more than one place, but keep looking at ohio…where he is even with mitt

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Yes, that much is true – the paths to victory are very different – Obama must win Ohio, Romney can win without it. I think Romney will win it – beyond any recount margin.

Zomcon JEM on October 24, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Just Wait For That Huge Bounce!

crickets…crickets…crickets…

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 10:15 AM

I’m not sure I’d want him banned. A simple boycott by HA readers would accomplish the intended result much better, IMO. I like having the opposition join in one the festivities. Makes it more interesting.

I just wish he (and all the other Obamadroids) would come up with an interesting argument once in a while. The fact that they can’t is telling, but they’ll never get it.

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Fair enough.It just gets so tiresome to read.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I agree and find it to be very irritating as well. I think we could stand to have more active moderation in regards to obvious troublemakers, but I don’t own the site unfortunately.

I’ve never understood what the point of lefties coming to a conservative site to argue over poll results.

The only possible point is that you are attempting to somehow reduce conservative/republican enthusiasm. Otherwise, it is just pissing in the wind. It’s not an argument over strategy, or substance, or policy, or who the better candidate is.

Monkeytoe on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You’ve nailed it. Negative campaigning 101 is to make the other side’s supporters feel bad and gloomy and like they’re going to lose, like they’re the only one who supports their candidate, and that ultimately it would be better they should stay home and give up and go away.

This doesn’t usually work on diehard supporters, but it will work on weaker ones. This would be why I’ve basically been begging the Romney campaign to use all their cash to do a nonstop negative ad blitz in the swing states. Negative advertising and campaigning is one of the major specialties of the Romney campaign and they could stand to do a heck of a lot more of it.

Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 11:35 AM

What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:</blockquote

Obama got his bounce… down…

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Shrillary is scolding people for posting on FB!

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Barry’s voters work?

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

So does Black Sabbath.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

..so does CSN&Y: “..four dead in Ohio….four dead in Ohio..

The War Planner on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

ohio… 0′s faves are…. 0 – post debate, mitts are +5 and he gained one past last debate…do cling to ohio, it is all you have …and the trend so far ain’t good…oh, and…ohio hates obamacare with a passion…but loves coal

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Breaking: RAS, NH R-50%, O-48%

The Count on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I see gumby the coward is up to his usual bag of tricks. Has he answered why all his calls are wrong?

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

ohio: say no to obamacre, yes to coal !

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:</blockquote

Obama got his bounce… down…

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Right – and where the splits used to show far more Dem crossovers than Rep., now they show more R Crossover? Yeah, right….Obama picked up support from Republicans and lost support from Dems….

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Did Gumby stroke out yet?

mark81150 on October 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM

No, that would require honesty.

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I see gumby the coward is up to his usual bag of tricks. Has he answered why all his calls are wrong?

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Of course not, and last night I saw some of his posts at freerepublic where he was predicting that Crist would beat Rubio and the Republicans were in trouble during the 2010 elections. So, you can add those to his list incorrect predictions.

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 11:41 AM

It is extremely unlikey the candidate that would have the winning percentage nationally would not take Ohio. Ohio is always on the winning side at a higher percentage than the candidates national number.

In other words, if Romney is truly winning nationally by approx 51/49 or so, he will at least win Ohio by that much or more.

jazzmo on October 24, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Breaking: RAS, NH R-50%, O-48%

The Count on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Oooohhhh! Push! Push! We can deliver this baby!

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:42 AM

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Share! Share! Share!

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM

CSN&Y: “..four dead in Ohio….four dead in Ohio..“

The War Planner on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

But they will be sending in their absentee ballots next week.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

in alternate reality , bounce down is actually a bounce up, so there

runner on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I actually prefer the trolls who are on the up and up. I mean, they’re still deluded and often obnoxious, but at least the libfrees of the world haven’t misrepresented who they are or who they support.

It’s Gumby’s insistence that he’s a conservative that makes him particularly offensive and transparent.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

But they will be sending in their absentee ballots next week.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Those four and many more, I’m afraid.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Share! Share! Share!

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Here

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

He’s not conservative; he’s just a joke. He pulled this same moby crap at Free Republic until he got banned.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I see gumby the coward is up to his usual bag of tricks. Has he answered why all his calls are wrong?

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

No, and he hasn’t answered anybody who’s asked him whom he wants to win the election. I mean, we all know, but he can’t come out and tell us, because he’s on the record as being a “conservative.” If he reinforces that falsehood, he will be ridiculed; if he comes clean and admits the truth, that he’s an Obama supporter, he outs himself as a liar and destroys the credibility he mistakenly believes he possesses.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Yeah, let’s compare a daytime event when people are at work vs a nighttime event when people are off work and can attend.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Yes, let’s compare:

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan appeared together in Henderson this afternoon

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and running mate Paul Ryan rallied for change in the White House before a Las Vegas-area crowd that campaign organizers put at more than 6,000….The appearance drew an overflow crowd to the Henderson Pavilion amphitheater.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49528410/ns/local_news-las_vegas_nv/t/thousands-turn-out-romney-ryan-stop-nevada/

EastofEden on October 24, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Food for thought: I wonder how many RR door knockers have had people tell them that they voted early but wish they had not:(
hehehe

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 11:53 AM

CSN&Y: “..four dead in Ohio….four dead in Ohio..“

The War Planner on October 24, 2012 at 11:36 AM

But they will be sending in their absentee ballots next week.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 11:44 AM

A personal quirk..

Do you guys have any idea how much we Buckeyes hate Crosby Stills and Nash for that song?

I was a schoolboy during Kent, and I know what happened from the investigation, what folks were saying..

That the left screeched Rhodes ordered an execution..

When a stupid tragedy was so twisted by the left into a cause..

The part CS&N never bothered to mention.. The wounded student protestors,.. were kept alive by those same Guardsmen giving first aid to the wounded, till the ambulances came. If it was the crime they claim, why did the Guardsmen bother keeping their wounded from bleeding out?

anyway,.. That band has some seriously PO’d Buckeyes who’d like to discuss it.

mark81150 on October 24, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Since Rasmussen has it 50-46 again for Romney nationally does anyone really believe he’ll lose Ohio if he’s up nationally by a whopping 4 points? And if by some miracle he does that just means Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire are in the bag. With a real possibility of Pennsylvania and Michigan. It could still be a landslide for Romney even if Ohio is lost.

Oh and for all those obsessed with early voting in Ohio,so far there have been 812,227 votes so far or about 14% of what is expected. In 2008 early voting was 1,635,676 or 29.7% of all votes.

Capitalist Infidel on October 24, 2012 at 11:55 AM

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Thanks! He’s a piece of work.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Breaking: RAS, NH R-50%, O-48%

The Count on October 24, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Libfree said he was extremely unconcerned about NH up thread somewhere. Oh well.

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Tell me again how the auto bailout helps Obama in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Aren’t many of the big auto plants in Ohio owned by companies that were not even bailed out? Companies like Honda, Toyota, etc?

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Frankly I’m betting this image was reversed in PS. Nobody’s this dumb. Not even in Michigan.

ChipDWood on October 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Actually, if you look at the photo, it appears like the 2nd from the left has a shirt pocket on his left chest. Unless the photo was taken in another country (different fashion conventions), then the photo is not mirrored and the clowns are truly screwing up OIHI.

freedomfirst on October 24, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Do you guys have any idea how much we Buckeyes hate Crosby Stills and Nash for that song?

I was a schoolboy during Kent, and I know what happened from the investigation, what folks were saying..

That the left screeched Rhodes ordered an execution..

When a stupid tragedy was so twisted by the left into a cause..

The part CS&N never bothered to mention.. The wounded student protestors,.. were kept alive by those same Guardsmen giving first aid to the wounded, till the ambulances came. If it was the crime they claim, why did the Guardsmen bother keeping their wounded from bleeding out?

anyway,.. That band has some seriously PO’d Buckeyes who’d like to discuss it.

mark81150 on October 24, 2012 at 11:55 AM

lol, you left out the Prime Culprit in your rant, namely Neil Young! He wrote that song. He’s a fellow countryman of Drywall’s.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Thanks! He’s a piece of work.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Indeed he is. You’d think after being so wrong, so many times, that he would back off of his absolutism.

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 12:35 PM

I am from the town where the CBS focus group voted for Romney after the third debate. My town Steubenville, Ohio is very Democratic leaning….

sweet92169 on October 24, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Aren’t many of the big auto plants in Ohio owned by companies that were not even bailed out? Companies like Honda, Toyota, etc?

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Yeah, that’s the whole point. He claimed it’s the reason Ohio is a lock for Obama. The largest supplier of auto industry jobs in Ohio is thanks to Honda which is in my hometown of Marysville. Honda and Ford account for over two thirds of the auto industry jobs in Ohio while GM only accounts for one third and most of the two thirds of auto industry jobs created by Honda an Ford are because of Honda.

I’ve told him this and he continues to ignore it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 12:39 PM

James O’Keefe ‏@JamesOKeefeIII

Things are going to get very interesting in about 15 minutes.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 12:40 PM

“phony polls with ridiculously oversampled Dem numbers”

Yeah, like Rasmussen using a R+1 sample in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Nonsense. Ohio swung 2.5 right of nation in 2008. Gallup has it D+1. Rasmussen has September at R+2.6 but is still playing his tracker safe at D+3. That will change soon.

Great poll. Same with NH. He wins NH by 2, he certainly wins OH.

And that would be the game folks.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 12:42 PM

No, we really can’t. Hot Air is a very high traffic conservative blog. GumbyPokey’s job – and others like him – is to convince anyone who comes into the comments section that Republicans are losing and that they should give up, stay home, and not vote. If we stop responding to GB people who don’t keep up with the comments section religiously may assume that he’s an honest person, that his fairy tales are correct, and that we don’t have a counterargument.

Of course, Ace has avoided this problem neatly by banning him and other obvious trolls/paid Obama campaign workers like him. It’s a shame that this blog’s authors don’t follow his example.

Doomberg on October 24, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You make a good point!!!
Let’s tear that little cartoon character bastage apart :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 12:49 PM

The largest supplier of auto industry jobs in Ohio is thanks to Honda which is in my hometown of Marysville. Honda and Ford account for over two thirds of the auto industry jobs in Ohio while GM only accounts for one third and most of the two thirds of auto industry jobs created by Honda an Ford are because of Honda.

I’ve told him this and he continues to ignore it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 12:39 PM

That’s because the only way for a Leftist to “debate” is to simply ignore Facts that they can’t refute.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 12:55 PM

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