Rasmussen: All tied in Ohio

posted at 9:21 am on October 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Did the final presidential debate move the numbers in Ohio, perhaps the most critical of the swing states to both campaigns?  Rasmussen polled likely voters in the Buckeye State and found that the answer was … no, not really.  What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates. Only one percent (1%) of Democrats fall into that category, along with 12% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Last week  and for most of the last month, the president has held a one-point advantage in the state. The Obama campaign has a very strong ground game in the Buckeye State. Ohio allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, the president has a 10-point lead. But that’s a smaller advantage than he had a week ago.

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand.  The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.  That’s worth keeping in mind as indies break slightly toward Obama, both without leaners (43/40) and with leaners (45/43).  However, having an incumbent at 45% among independents with 13 days to go is not a good sign for re-election, especially when independents trust Romney a little more on the economy (47/41) and on energy policy (52/42) in the coal-rich region.  Romney has neutered the gender gap; he leads among men (50/44) by the same amount as Obama leads among women (51/45).

Overall, there are a few key indicators.  Romney has a slight edge on favorability at +6 (51/46) while Obama’s at zero (49/49).  Romney is up seven for trust on the economy (51/44), with the exact same numbers on energy.  Obama has a slight edge on national security at 50/46, but that’s within the margin of error — a big problem for an incumbent President.  More people say that the economy is getting worse rather than better (41/35), and they are more pessimistic about a second Obama term than a first Romney term in that regard.  If Obama gets re-elected, slightly more people expect the economy to worsen rather than improve (37/40), but Romney optimism prevails by 10 points (46/36).

I’d say that this state looks ready to break narrowly into Romney’s column.  Voters are clearly not sold on Obamanomics, and a final push by Team Romney on the issues of the economy and energy policy could win the state this week and next.  One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.


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Rasmussen was on Fox early this morning. I believe he said the sample was D+3.

RedWinged Blackbird on October 24, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Is it really a +1 R sammple in this OH poll?

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 10:02 AM

NY Conservative on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Dick Morris

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:02 AM

“We still have 2 weeks to go and Obama is barely leading even in places like CT”

Are you crazy?

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Maybe, but you’re ignorant.

And a shill.

fossten on October 24, 2012 at 10:02 AM

PA is not possible. And NV is highly unlikely.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

The voters get to decide what is and is not possible.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

So THAT’S it! Ohioans are just too super duper secret to say they’re voting for Romney. I love it!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Tell me again about how helpful that auto bailout is to the majority of the auto industry workers that exist because of the Honda plant in my hometown of Marysville Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Sadly, the Dem advantage in early voting in OH is far far far less than it was in 2008. As a matter of fact, McCain actually won OH in 2008 on voting day.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

You know the actual vote totals? Based upon polling outfits that are speaking to early voters, Obama is winning the early vote between 10 and 25 points. Survey USA shows a particularly robust win for Obama among early voters. You seem to be basing your number on absentee ballot *requests* but you don’t have data on votes cast, correct?

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

You can tell how well Romney is doing by the amount of Trolls attacking this Thread.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Well that makes sense since Nevada was a blowout in 2008 and Florida was not…Wait, it doesn’t make sense at all.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:55 AM

They’ve only separated twice since the 40′s.

Ford (Nixon/Watergate), and Perot.

Obama pt2 does not qualify as that kind electoral impact.

So it’s a fight: immigration vs economic collapse.

Problem you have, is Romney is now near W-level latino support from 2K because of the economy.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 10:04 AM

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

They are about out of minutes on their 0bamaphones. No trolling, no extra minutes.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:04 AM

“did you see the story about barry’s bengazi coverup, he knew straight away it was a terror attack, but tried to push it on a video for political gain ?

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM”

The average voter just doesn’t care and it’s not getting any traction.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

is gumby trying to convince others or himself? no one who is above 50 in gallup at this stage in the game ever lost an election

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

“Celebrate”

3 Dog Night

Old Fritz on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:04 AM

LOL. That, and the checks from Axlerod are going to stop coming…very soon.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Although the top line is 4 points worse for Romney and reflects an Obama lead, I’d much rather have the Survey USA numbers reflect reality better than Rasmussen due to its internals. While Obama is up 3 in Survey USA (47-44), he can only get his usual 47% of the vote in a D+7 poll. If there was a more realistic party composition (like D+3), Romney would be up slightly. Plus in this poll, Romney is up 47-39 among independents, which aligns with most other state and national polls showing a significant lead among independents. Although Romney is tied in Rasmussen, he is losing independents and it’s an R+1 composition. Rasmussen is the far scarier poll.

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

The unparalleled GOTV for Obama by the unions in Clark County will give the President Nevada’s electoral votes.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

RCP Average……10/17-23………………….47.7…46.0…O +1.7

Rasmussen……..10/23………..750 LV 4.0…..48…..48….Tie
Sample: 38/39/23 R +1
2008: O +4
Swing: O -4

SurveyUSA………10/20-22…….609 LV 4.1…..47…..44….O +3
Sample: 39/32/25 D +7
Swing: O -1

Suffolk………..10/18-21…….600 LV 4.0…..47…..47….Tie
Sample: 39/35/27 D +4
Swing: O -4

PPP……………10/18-20…….532 LV 4.3…..49…..48….O +1
Sample: 42/34/23 D +8
Swing: O -3

CBS/Quin……….10/17-20……1548 LV 3.0…..50…..45….O +5
Sample: 35/26/34 D +9
Swing: O +1

Gravis…………10/18-19……1943 LV 2.2…..47…..47….Tie
Sample: 41/32/27 D +9
Swing: O -4

FOX News……….10/17-18……1131 LV 3.0…..46…..43….O +3
Sample: 42/34/20 D +8
Swing: O -1

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

So THAT’S it! Ohioans are just too super duper secret to say they’re voting for Romney. I love it!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

No, conservative Ohioians are not normally as boisterous as their liberal neighbors. There has been a lot of apprehension about how liberals will react, and people have been more hesitant to put out signs. This is a reflection of how badly liberals act. I’ve noticed a lot of apprehension this election. Hardly any Romney signs appeared until after the first debate. But now, there are plenty.

You should be worried about Ohio.

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The average voter just doesn’t care and it’s not getting any traction.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

You just keep telling yourself that, Skippy.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The average voter just doesn’t care and it’s not getting any traction.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

that the president is involved in massive coverup that cost uslives ? that’s what nixon though…

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

If GOP doesn’t win senate Marxist care doesn’t get repealed. Might as well keep the head Marxist.

bgibbs1000 on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

“After the third try, Coromalis says she was able to get her vote counted for Gov. Romney but was still annoyed.

“I should have just mailed it in,” Coromalis said.

Marie Haydock, who also voted at the Bur-Mil Park polling location, had the same problem.

“The frustration is… every vote counts,” said Haydock.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/10/north-carolina-voting-machines-count-romney-votes-for-obama-video

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

“Although Romney is tied in Rasmussen, he is losing independents and it’s an R+1 composition. Rasmussen is the far scarier poll.

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM”

Wow, people are getting it!

I’m impressed that reality is finally creeping in about Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Aren’t you cute. You’re forgetting that Romney is still surging upward and the Peeresident is floundering. In two weeks the numbers will be worse for Teh Won.

But yeah, go ahead and take it.

fossten on October 24, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Romney is surging in certain places. He has actually declined in certain states: Iowa, MI and WI and his Ohio numbers have budged, but only barely. I also think Republicans are being misled by national polls that include a sub-poll of swing states. North Carolina was never a “swing state” it tipped Dem in a very bullish Dem year, a near landslide. Virginia I feel similarly about. There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

is gumby trying to convince others or himself? no one who is above 50 in gallup at this stage in the game ever lost an election

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I honestly am starting to think he’s trying to convince himself. He claims the auto bailout is what is keeping Obama up in Ohio, yet when I smack him in the head with the anvil of facts about the actual landscape of the auto industry in Ohio he just ignores it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I just have a question. When you talk about a +10 advantage for the Big Zero on early voting, how do you know all D’s voted for him? Aren’t there a lot of Democratic coal miners supporting Romney this time around? And votes don’t get counted until election day. Or am I missing something?

COgirl on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Romney is up seven for trust on the economy (51/44), with the exact same numbers on energy. Obama has a slight edge on national security at 50/46,

I simply can’t believe that my fellow Ohioans don’t have Obama in the 30s on all three of these measures. What are they thinking?

***

Is it Romney’s position on the auto industry what is holding him back.

***

earlgrey133 on October 24, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Personally, I think the GM effect could be more than offset by the pickups in the energy areas. If Obama takes Ohio, I’m going to blame Kasich and the Ohio GOP that gained control of both houses in 2010. Some idiotic pro-life groups started pushing for heartbeat-abortion legislation that even one highly regarded pro-life group wouldn’t support. More important, from a distance, it seems that their redistricting efforts for both Congress and state legislators was so heavy handed it spawned litigation and even a ridiculous constitutional amendment that may pass in all the confusion. And beyond that, they seemed to do a ham-handed job of trying to trim back some of Ohio’s absurdly lax early voting laws. Finally, they didn’t learn from Walker in WI about how to pass PEU-reform legislation. In Ohio, they included cops and firefighters, and they did virtually nothing to try to sell the bill. Liberals had old ladies around the state convinced that no cops or firefighters would be available to handle their emergency calls. The legislation that was enacted got put to a referendum in Nov. 2011, and repealers crushed the good guys 61-39.

I’m hoping that Obama is considered so bad on a national level that Romney can somehow win. But I just don’t know. I think too many Ohioans are looking at Illinois as a model rather than Indiana.

BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The unparalleled GOTV for Obama by the unions in Clark County will give the President Nevada’s electoral votes.

yeah, sure, baby, except the voting rosters got cleaned up, and voting laws are tighter all over the country since 2008, no more mickey mouse casting votes, buddy

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

One more thing, in that Survey USA Poll, Mandel outperforms Romney and is only down 1 to Brown. Don’t know what to make of that.

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

You can tell how well Romney is doing by the amount of Trolls attacking this Thread.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Remember before the first debate when the MSM was declaring the election over? Since then the concern trolls have seen the bad polling for the rat-eared wonder and the clear momentum of Romney/Ryan. They are essentially throwing a temper tantrum which is why they disrupt virtually every single thread. If they can’t bask in the glow from the rat-eared wonder’s super camaign then they have decided to spoil it for everyone else. In short, they are as rude and selfish as their candidate himself.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Getting fluffed by an Eeyore made your day week.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Tell me again about how helpful that auto bailout is to the majority of the auto industry workers that exist because of the Honda plant in my hometown of Marysville Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

You preach it brother! Most of these libs don’t know squat about Ohio. Honda is the biggest auto maker in Ohio right now, especially if you consider all the support plants and that Delphi was shut down. I love how gumby crows about the auto bailouts yet seems to know nothing about a huge number of Ohio GM auto workers at Delphi that lost HUGE in all that mess. Yeah… keep reminding them of how they got screwed… that’s a winning formula!

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Wow, people are getting it!

I’m impressed that reality is finally creeping in about Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Tell me again about how helpful that auto bailout is to the majority of the auto industry workers that exist because of the Honda plant in my hometown of Marysville Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:10 AM

The average voter just doesn’t care and it’s not getting any traction.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

This is true, and also a very sad commentary on the electorate.

None-the-less, the fact that voters aren’t paying attention on that one issue does not mean that they are preparing to turn out in droves and vote for Obama. Romney still has the momentum, not to mention the better argument on every issue voters care about. They fact that they don’t happen to care about Libya won’t matter.

Shump on October 24, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Yep. And,they are only going to get uglier over the next 13 days…if that’s possible.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin.

I take offense to that language. Just go ahead and spit it out…. play the race card. Desperate times, call for desperate measures.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:11 AM

It’s all good people, Obama has no shot in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I hope you are right about that. Please, God, let it be so!

dczombie on October 24, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Wow, way to cherry pick my statement Gumby. I’m not saying Romney isn’t going to win at all. I’m just saying that Survey USA is a better poll for him than the Rasmussen one.

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:12 AM

BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The problem is Kasich, with the way he went about SB5. I don’t think the pro-life issue is as bad as many cite… but SB5 was huge. His problem is that he went too big with it and lost public support. Although Kasich has been doing well with jobs.

But something to keep in mind… Ohio Republican leadership at the state and district level have been highly GOP progressive controlled, with few conservatives. This has been an underlying current that has been hard to swim against.

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:13 AM

these troll are as brilliant as barry, gumby was posting mkh’s humorous tweet abt poll numbers 2 days ago as proof that barry is way, way ahead…these fools will believe anything

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Wow, people are getting it!

I’m impressed that reality is finally creeping in about Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Would you rather have Romney’s polling numbers right now, or Obama’s?

spinach.chin on October 24, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I honestly am starting to think he’s trying to convince himself. He claims the auto bailout is what is keeping Obama up in Ohio, yet when I smack him in the head with the anvil of facts about the actual landscape of the auto industry in Ohio he just ignores it.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Let’s not discount Ohio’s proximity to coal country either. Or the fact that gas and food is costing Ohians twice as much as it did four years ago. This is a referedum election and the last debate may have not done much to convince the undecided in the state but IMO the ultimate winner of those electoral votes will win by a small but significant margin. I’m just not willing to say which candidate that will be but the concern trolls insistance that Obama has the state in the bag speaks volumes about how scared they are about their chances.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 10:14 AM

There is a MOE in every one, so Rasmussen poll may or may not be as tight or reflects a slippage fro Romney. And people lie to pollster. I know if I were approached by a pollster, I would say that I am a Democrat, but will be voting for Romney.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 10:14 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

NO, you pompous little professional academic twit. Poorly veiled raaaacism on your part aside, like everywhere else in this nation, Americans are voting with their patriotism and their pocketbooks.

Sure stinks to be a Liberal these days, doesn’t it?

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Are you kidding?

Drudge has given far more attention (sirens, Red Ink) to trivial matters. And if you bothered to watch the morning news shows or listen to the radio, the story isn’t being played up at all. Just a brief mention along with all the other items.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

He gives sirens/red ink when it breaks. Then, it goes to black. The issue wasn’t the morning shows. The issue was DRUDGE. You were wrong.

I have been listening to the radio all morning. It has been the topic of discussion…much more so than Murdock. Sorry.

It’s not going to be what you want it to be.

Dude, you just don’t get it.

This isn’t going to go away for Obama even if he is reelected. He lied to the American people. He and his administration stood by and watched 4 Americans die. They KNEW that it was a terrorist attack. They LIED about the video. TODAY, a man is sitting in solitary confinement in the Federal detention centre in Los Angeles being held without bail on an alleged probation violation – A MISDEMEANOR – because of Obama.

Would you care to take a guess the date of Nakoula Basseley Nakoula’s next court appearance?

If you had to wager, would it be before or after the election?

If it is after the election, would it be a few days, a few weeks, a few months, or undetermined?

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Has this guy ever given a coherent reason why he likes Obama?

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

No, one of the reasons he has no credibility and has invited so much ridicule is because he has stated that he is NOT an Obama supporter. He has actually (don’t laugh) said that he is a conservative who supported Santorum in the primaries.

Gumby is a liar and an attention-wh*re. He has gone from being an amusing diversion to a troll who pollutes threads so thoroughly that he drives people like me away from Hot Air and to other blogs and websites. I can’t be the only one who feels that way, and if enough other Hot Air regulars have the same reaction, Ed and/or Allah need to get the ban hammer out, because Gumby has become bad for their business.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 10:15 AM

This is true, and also a very sad commentary on the electorate.

not true. people may not be up on the specifics, but the aura of sleaze, incompetence and malaise around barry is so thick, and so reinforced by this tragedy that even the most average voter can smell that something is rotten in the current WH

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Oh, so, white people not wanting to live in poverty, on food stamps, on unemployment benefits, etc, is proof of their racism?

Gotcha.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Sadly, the Cuyahoga GOTV effort will pay a major role, and maybe deciding role, in the Ohio results. If the Feds had only finished what they’d started with the indictments and trials of most of the Democrat party leaders, we’d be in better shape.

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Romney is surging in certain places.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

This is known as quibbling.

fossten on October 24, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I like this poll for a number of reasons. First, the momentum continues to be in the right direction and there are stilll two more weeks to go. Second, Obama can’t break 48% and is only at 43% with independents. That tells me a lot of voters remain undecided. Most of those will go to Romney. I wouldn’t worry about the early voting. That was always the Democrat strategy: mobilize the unions and go to colleges and bus kids to vote. Even with that the Dem advantage isn’t what it was in ’08. And we still haven’t factored in enthusiasm. I believe Romney wins Ohio by 52/48.

breffnian on October 24, 2012 at 10:19 AM

The average voter just doesn’t care and it’s not getting any traction.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Didn’t you say that wouldn’t be big on Drudge today, gumball? That the big, BIG story would be Murdock?

Why, yes. Yes, you did.

Have you always been this stupid…or just since you became an obot?

Solaratov on October 24, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Virginia I feel similarly about. There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Wow! Not even pretending that this is anything but playing the race card and painting the electorate of whole states as KKK affiliates whose only reason for voting for Romney is because of the other candidate’s skin color. You disgust me.

Could it possibly be that Virginians, North Carolinians, and Floridians are voting for Romney because they are dissatisfied with the way this nation has been run for the last four years under the administration of the rat-eared wonder? That idea ever pop into your tiny little partisan brain?

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

When you talk about a +10 advantage for the Big Zero on early voting, how do you know all D’s voted for him?

Excellent point. Obama is not getting anything close to 100% support from Democrat voters this time. Not all Democrats are far-left Marxists, and a lot of them, especially in the rust belt, are quite conservative.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Uh oh, if this is the new talking point, then they are even more desperate than originally thought.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

There’s no question that the Old South has re-risen in those states and Romney will probably win them by a large margin. I suspect they are bringing down Obama’s numbers in the collective “swing state” polls

right those old south states of colorado, nh, fl, va ? get over yourself

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Anyone who thinks Pennsylvania is out of reach is a fool. Bob Casey is running for his life, Mark Critz is now behind in PA-12 and the Dems have thrown in the towel on all three House seats in the Philly suburbs that they carried easily in 2008 but lost in 2010. The state Democratic party is rudderless and leaderless. Jews, Catholics, and seniors in the collar counties are not voting for Obama. The western side of the state is going overwhelmingly for Romney, including the Pittsburgh suburbs.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 10:21 AM

You know the actual vote totals? Based upon polling outfits that are speaking to early voters, Obama is winning the early vote between 10 and 25 points. Survey USA shows a particularly robust win for Obama among early voters. You seem to be basing your number on absentee ballot *requests* but you don’t have data on votes cast, correct?

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

More than half of the absentee ballots in Ohio are being requested by independents and in almost every poll Romney is winning the independents in Ohio so it would not be that different in the indenepents who are voting absentee. Those polls showing Obama with having an advantage in early votes are way oversampling democrats in this particular category more so than the oversampling of the democrats in the overall poll…

Bottom line is that democrats have less than 130,000 absentee ballots request this year in Ohio compared to 2008. If they are losing that much in absentee ballot they are going to lose at least 350,000 votes from the overall vote compared to 2008 and hence Obama is going to lose Ohio because he only won it by 260,000 votes in 2008…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Imagine what that Survey USA poll would look like if the sample of black voters reflected the 95% of that vote Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You know the actual vote totals?

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Yes. I do. And the numbers cited earlier by ntjm are right.

That state is not the same state in ’04.

BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

That is very, very accurate.

In otherwords, it’s the same protectionist crowd of white voters that moves the state blue or red, every time.

Not minorities. Not prog ideology.

A group of whiteys who live in this weird dreamworld, where they think they’re not wards of the state, but are invested in at least one household employment check from a government entity.

This is why Barry keeps emphasizing teachers. It’s why Romney’s Denver debate line about “2 million teachers” really hurt 0.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 10:22 AM

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I think the abortion attempts just add to the creep and overreach perception. I agree with you on SB5. Kasich et al. completely phucked that up. He went big and then did almost nothing to sell it either before it was enacted or when it was put to the referendum. I don’t recall ever seeing such a clusterphuck.

BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You imagine lots of things.

Unicorns and skittle farts keep you going.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM

ou know the actual vote totals? Based upon polling outfits that are speaking to early voters, Obama is winning the early vote between 10 and 25 points.

link

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Tell me again about how helpful that auto bailout is to the majority of the auto industry workers that exist because of the Honda plant in my hometown of Marysville Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

You preach it brother! Most of these libs don’t know squat about Ohio. Honda is the biggest auto maker in Ohio right now, especially if you consider all the support plants and that Delphi was shut down. I love how gumby crows about the auto bailouts yet seems to know nothing about a huge number of Ohio GM auto workers at Delphi that lost HUGE in all that mess. Yeah… keep reminding them of how they got screwed… that’s a winning formula!

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:09 AM

And Obama was stupid enough to talk about it in Dayton. DAYTON! It looks like gumby may be Obama’s speech writer or fact checker. How in the world do you talk about the auto bailout in Dayton when the Delphi plant in Moraine is no more?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:24 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Has this guy ever given a coherent reason why he likes Obama?

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

He is a low rent paid troll for the Barry campaign.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 10:26 AM

oh, and all that crap about early voting totals going for barry like really big in ohio was severely debunked, so don’t bother linking to that malarky

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:26 AM

or was it malarkey ? i guess i should ask joe-clown for the exact spelling

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Pennsylvania might even be easier to win than Ohio. Consider how little effort has been invested in the state, compared to Ohio, and look how close Romney has managed to climb. If Romney wants to shake up this race he ought to make a surprise stop right in the middle of Bryn Mawr or Ardmore. That would be elecrifying.

Cleveland is another matter. Cuyahoga Democrats are expert at stealing elections, and they have a huge registration advanage to work with to start off. If the Feds let the County Democrats run wild, as they will, the GOTV effort can “produce” enough votes to win Ohio.

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:27 AM

He is a low rent paid troll for the Barry campaign.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 10:26 AM

going back and forth between talking points and reality, its little empty head is spinning…

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:28 AM

When you talk about a +10 advantage for the Big Zero on early voting, how do you know all D’s voted for him?

You misunderstand. Pollsters, from Rasmussen to Survey USA have been asking people if they voted early. And if so, for whom did they vote. Amongst that slice of the electorate which seems to consistently land between 15-25% of people polled people are saying they have already voted for Obama by very wide margins. I am not sure what the party ID breakdown of those people are. No doubt there are more democrats among them than other people. The question is whether or not that early election day lead will be enough.

People are trying to divine the tea leaves based upon the number of absentee ballots requested. Who knows, maybe the Romney voters are just slower in turning them in. Or maybe all the people who pollsters talk to are lying about who they voted early for. But if the later is the case then there’s no point in using polls either way. The point is that Romney has not made significant enough in-roads in Ohio, as of yet, to flip that state Red.

right those old south states of colorado, nh, fl, va ? get over yourself

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Florida and VA not part of the “old south?” Honey, you don’t know your history. And I’m extremely unconcerned about who will win NH. Its going blue.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Cleveland is another matter. Cuyahoga Democrats are expert at stealing elections, and they have a huge registration advanage to work with to start off. If the Feds let the County Democrats run wild, as they will, the GOTV effort can “produce” enough votes to win Ohio.

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Cleveland was a concern in 2004 as well, but that didn’t seem to pan out as well as the Dems had hoped.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Do Republicans Always Over Perform in Ohio?

Yes.

jazzmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

***

Jews, Catholics, and seniors in the collar counties are not voting for Obama. The western side of the state is going overwhelmingly for Romney, including the Pittsburgh suburbs.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Now, I forget: You live around Philly, don’t you? What you say makes sense to me. I’m sure that Obama owns the urban areas in Philly. But it sounded to me as if those collar counties had a lot of affluent white voters who voted for Obama because it was fashionable. They’d undoubtedly vote for a Clinton or an Evan Bayh Democrat. With Obama, they just ignored everything but color.

That said, it seems to me that these voters can easily reconcile a vote for Romney. Indeed, I really beginning to thing R2 have a better chance getting PA than OH.

BuckeyeSam on October 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Right Mover @10:15

Your absolutely correct, I only stop by once or twice a day, instead of all the time………

angrymike on October 24, 2012 at 10:31 AM

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Cuyahoga won’t be as impactful as usual.

Exurbs are negating the CC numbers, and the Youngstown/Akron firewall is non-existent. Plus, the CC number is already trending down 10%.

All other county numbers are down heavy for Obama, or have swung Romney, and a few quite heavily. The already red counties are now blood red from those who sat out ’08.

Obama hit a ceiling in ’08 turnout.

If he wins, we’ll go to instant recount, since he’ll be lucky to carry the state by 75K voters, forget over a 100K.

Like I said on Monday – flip 150K Romney’s way, and this is ovah.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Unicorns and skittle farts keep you going.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Do you think if libdie turned cartwheels, he/she, could fart purple rainbows?

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I just have a question. When you talk about a +10 advantage for the Big Zero on early voting, how do you know all D’s voted for him? Aren’t there a lot of Democratic coal miners supporting Romney this time around? And votes don’t get counted until election day. Or am I missing something?

COgirl on October 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The pollsters are asking people “Did you vote?” and “Who did you vote for?”

And since their exit polling was SO GOOD in 2004 with Kerry and in Wisconsin, and since in this election there’s no chance anybody is going to call you names for who you voted for, these “exit” polls are VERY accurate . . .

Hopefully a lot of libs don’t bother to get up from their lattes and mochas because they think Obama has it in the bag from early voting . . . Or they listened to Moochelle and wait for Nov 8

PastorJon on October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

link

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Click on the polls for their internals, educate yourself. Survey USA has been most likely to post data on early voters in Ohio.: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

LOL. That, and the checks from Axlerod are going to stop coming…very soon.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I certainly hope sir that you are not lumping me in with the trollage that is going on in this thread….that would be a grave misread of my initial comment.

NY Conservative on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Imagine what that Survey USA poll would look like if the sample of black voters reflected the 95% of that vote Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Imagine what that Survey USA poll would look like if the sample of white voters reflected over 50% of that vote Romney will win. Or if it reflected Romney winning those voters by more than 5% which is also likely to happen. It evens out in the end.

Bravesbill on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

PA is not possible. And NV is highly unlikely.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Stop talking about your opinions as though they are facts.

You have no clue what is possible or not. Obama cannot get to 50% in any of these states, yet you babble about things not being possible.

milcus on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

RCP Average……10/17-23………………….47.7…46.0…O +1.7

Rasmussen……..10/23………..750 LV 4.0…..48…..48….Tie
Sample: 38/39/23 R +1
2008: O +4
Swing: O -4

SurveyUSA………10/20-22…….609 LV 4.1…..47…..44….O +3
Sample: 39/32/25 D +7
Swing: O -1

Suffolk………..10/18-21…….600 LV 4.0…..47…..47….Tie
Sample: 39/35/27 D +4
Swing: O -4

PPP……………10/18-20…….532 LV 4.3…..49…..48….O +1
Sample: 42/34/23 D +8
Swing: O -3

CBS/Quin……….10/17-20……1548 LV 3.0…..50…..45….O +5
Sample: 35/26/34 D +9
Swing: O +1

Gravis…………10/18-19……1943 LV 2.2…..47…..47….Tie
Sample: 41/32/27 D +9
Swing: O -4

FOX News……….10/17-18……1131 LV 3.0…..46…..43….O +3
Sample: 42/34/20 D +8
Swing: O -1

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Great summary, thanks.. The bottom line is despite the crazy oversampling of democrats in the vast majority of the Ohio polls (as well as national polls) Obama is below 48% in Ohio… This is a certain proof that Obama is going to lose Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

And some polls, like PPP, used REQUESTS FOR BALLOTS as actual votes cast, ie, if a Democrat requested an absentee ballot, he was considered a vote for Obama. After they were busted, Obama lost 33,000 votes in one week in one poll in one county.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM

And Obama was stupid enough to talk about it in Dayton. DAYTON! It looks like gumby may be Obama’s speech writer or fact checker. How in the world do you talk about the auto bailout in Dayton when the Delphi plant in Moraine is no more?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 10:24 AM

The Delphi plant, the assembly plant as well. Then there was the stamping plant in Mansfield, a couple of others in the Cleveland burbs……

Animal60 on October 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Do you think if libdie turned cartwheels, he/she, could fart purple rainbows?

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I don’t waste valuable brain time thinking about that libiot.

Just whack him and move on.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Click on the polls for their internals, educate yourself. Survey USA has been most likely to post data on early voters in Ohio.: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The internals of the SurveryUSA poll in Ohio are very bad for Obama… In fact they indicate a certain defeat for Obama in Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 10:35 AM

More than half of the absentee ballots in Ohio are being requested by independents and in almost every poll Romney is winning the independents in Ohio so it would not be that different in the indenepents who are voting absentee. Those polls showing Obama with having an advantage in early votes are way oversampling democrats in this particular category more so than the oversampling of the democrats in the overall poll…

You have it backwards. Survey USA does not weight their totals at all. Which is why they can at times be all over the map on their demographics (in both of their recent FL and OH polls they show Obama winning less than 90% of the black vote…exactly). But this also means when they ask “did you vote early” they simply report who responded “yes.” Which suggests that more Democrats are choosing to vote early than Republicans. Does this mean, as some suggest, that Democrats are shooting their electorate wad early and the cascade on election day will go Romney. Perhaps? But we can say that Obama will most likely go into election day with a lead. Like I said, I’m somewhat more optimistic, not overwhelmingly so.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:36 AM

And some polls, like PPP, used REQUESTS FOR BALLOTS as actual votes cast, ie, if a Democrat requested an absentee ballot, he was considered a vote for Obama. After they were busted, Obama lost 33,000 votes in one week in one poll in one county.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Link.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Great summary, thanks.. The bottom line is despite the crazy oversampling of democrats in the vast majority of the Ohio polls (as well as national polls) Obama is below 48% in Ohio… This is a certain proof that Obama is going to lose Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM

another aspect of the polling that is overlooked is not the D/R/I breakdown, but the age breaks and the ethnic breaks. If they are using 2008 models, they are likely to be seriously out of line with the 2012 turnout.

Animal60 on October 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Cleveland is another matter. Cuyahoga Democrats are expert at stealing elections, and they have a huge registration advanage to work with to start off. If the Feds let the County Democrats run wild, as they will, the GOTV effort can “produce” enough votes to win Ohio.

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:27 AM

No they won’t.

400-500k were dropped from the voter rolls. Mostly from the large urban areas. They were ACORN voters.

Exurbs have grown while Dem county populaiton has shrunk. City folk are not moving to the sticks.

It’s about the Ohio suburbs. The outer ring of Cuyahoga that bleeds into the East and West side. Same with Columbus and CinnCinn.

They gave Barry the state in ’08.

And Lib – Republicans mostly wait to vote on Election Day, because it feels patriotic. Vast majority of early R voters are elderly. Simple as that.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Looks like there was a bounce for Obama after the last debate…

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Ras: Single night conducted after the debate is similar to the +2 advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current +4.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Link.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Failed…again

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Jews, Catholics, and seniors in the collar counties are not voting for Obama. The western side of the state is going overwhelmingly for Romney, including the Pittsburgh suburbs.

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Be honest. If we looked at the HotAir archive from October 2008 wouldn’t we see you making a similar argument about McCain’s chances in PA in that election? PA is the moby dick for the GOP in Presidential races for two decades now. Let it go….

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Cleveland was a concern in 2004 as well, but that didn’t seem to pan out as well as the Dems had hoped.

No question. The Dems have lost nearly 200,000 registered voters in Cuyahoga County, and growth is Republican leaning suburbs does indeed help (as budfox so rightly said), but can the growing Republican vote in Columbus and even Strongsville’s growth in GOP voters make up for voter fraud downtown? I don’t know.

Don’t misunderstand me- I think we can and should win in Ohio- but I also hope Romeny can find the time to make even a small play for Montgomery County in Philly. Obama won big there, and carried Pennsy as a result, but it feels like those folks have learned their lesson, and might help Romney by staying home or even (God forbid!) voting Republican!

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I’ve always enjoyed reading the comments as much as the posts but you guys have to got to drop this GumbyPokey banter. This election is so important and you guys are wasting so much time on this tool. Let him go and concentrate on winning this election.

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Be honest.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Be honest and stop imagining.

The archives are searchable.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Just whack him and move on.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:35 AM

But my arms are getting tired, whacking all the moles that keep popping up! hehehe

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates.

?!?!?!?!?!?!? What’s up with that?

KS Rex on October 24, 2012 at 10:42 AM

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

“Wack-a-troll” builds finger strength, and extemporaneous thinking.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Link.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 10:37 AM

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/21/PPP-OH-Poll-Obama-Loses-33-000-Early-Votes-in-One-Week

sentinelrules on October 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

What’s up with that?

KS Rex on October 24, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Projection and unicorn fart grasping.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

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