Rasmussen: All tied in Ohio

posted at 9:21 am on October 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Did the final presidential debate move the numbers in Ohio, perhaps the most critical of the swing states to both campaigns?  Rasmussen polled likely voters in the Buckeye State and found that the answer was … no, not really.  What had been a 49/48 narrow edge for Obama a week earlier has now become a 48/48 tie with less than two weeks to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates. Only one percent (1%) of Democrats fall into that category, along with 12% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Last week  and for most of the last month, the president has held a one-point advantage in the state. The Obama campaign has a very strong ground game in the Buckeye State. Ohio allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, the president has a 10-point lead. But that’s a smaller advantage than he had a week ago.

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand.  The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.  That’s worth keeping in mind as indies break slightly toward Obama, both without leaners (43/40) and with leaners (45/43).  However, having an incumbent at 45% among independents with 13 days to go is not a good sign for re-election, especially when independents trust Romney a little more on the economy (47/41) and on energy policy (52/42) in the coal-rich region.  Romney has neutered the gender gap; he leads among men (50/44) by the same amount as Obama leads among women (51/45).

Overall, there are a few key indicators.  Romney has a slight edge on favorability at +6 (51/46) while Obama’s at zero (49/49).  Romney is up seven for trust on the economy (51/44), with the exact same numbers on energy.  Obama has a slight edge on national security at 50/46, but that’s within the margin of error — a big problem for an incumbent President.  More people say that the economy is getting worse rather than better (41/35), and they are more pessimistic about a second Obama term than a first Romney term in that regard.  If Obama gets re-elected, slightly more people expect the economy to worsen rather than improve (37/40), but Romney optimism prevails by 10 points (46/36).

I’d say that this state looks ready to break narrowly into Romney’s column.  Voters are clearly not sold on Obamanomics, and a final push by Team Romney on the issues of the economy and energy policy could win the state this week and next.  One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.


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Pokey?

Electrongod on October 24, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I believe Fleetwood Mac has a song that relates to the 2012 election.

blatantblue on October 24, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Things are looking very good. Let’s not just go for a win; let’s go for a knockout!

bluegill on October 24, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Atomic Firewall!

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM

….gummeandpokeme is going to have a low sperm count!

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.

I guess being peevish and childish doesn’t play well in Oiho.

dirtseller on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Romney will win the state by 2-4 points.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Who cares about Ohio? Obama’s a big hit overseas, the guaranteed winner by the biggest landslide in US history! /

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 9:27 AM

You guys think the sample in OH will be R+1? You cannot compare turnout in an off-year election to a Presidential election.

And Mitt loses Independents?

Obama wins Ohio by 1-2 pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:27 AM

But, but… AUTO BAILOUT!!!!

Hahahahahahahaha

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Maybe he realizes the general public just isn’t that interested.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 12:50 AM

‘Morning, Sunshine! Drudge has two words for you:

“HE KNEW.”

Still want to argue that Drudge “realises the general public just isn’t that interested”?

Didn’t think so.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Glad to hear the Romney is going to Wisconsin and then back to Defiance, Ohio. “Defiance” — how appropriate!

cww on October 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM

This is a bit disappointing with so many other “swing states” starting to align more fully with Romney. I took this poll as bad news especially with the partisan breakdown.

I have heard voters in Ohio talk about how much the economy has improved there (with no mention of the R governor). Is it Romney’s position on the auto industry what is holding him back. THere are many people that don’t realize that GM is still in trouble and 7 out of 10 cars they make aren’t made in the US.

earlgrey133 on October 24, 2012 at 9:30 AM

One thing is for sure: Obama’s debate performance didn’t provide him any lift the next day in Ohio.

I guess being peevish and childish doesn’t play well in Oiho.

dirtseller on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Let’s dispense that myth right now. Obama didn’t win a single debate.

hawkdriver on October 24, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Essentially, if OH women wake up in the next few days, it is an OH landslide for R/R.

hillsoftx on October 24, 2012 at 9:30 AM

shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

???

48 + 48 + 2 + 3 = 101

I guess it is a rounding error.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

“Maybe he realizes the general public just isn’t that interested.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 12:50 AM

‘Morning, Sunshine! Drudge has two words for you:

“HE KNEW.”

Still want to argue that Drudge “realises the general public just isn’t that interested”?

Didn’t think so.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM”

Are you kidding?

Drudge has given far more attention (sirens, Red Ink) to trivial matters. And if you bothered to watch the morning news shows or listen to the radio, the story isn’t being played up at all. Just a brief mention along with all the other items. It’s not going to be what you want it to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

What’s the deal with independents here? Let’s GOTV!

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 9:32 AM

“This is a bit disappointing with so many other “swing states” starting to align more fully with Romney. I took this poll as bad news especially with the partisan breakdown.”

AMEN.

If Romeny isn’t ahead with a R+1 sample, he isn’t winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:33 AM

This is good news?

He should be ahead by 10 points in Ohio!!!!

Ugh!

PappyD61 on October 24, 2012 at 9:33 AM

This is a bit disappointing with so many other “swing states” starting to align more fully with Romney. I took this poll as bad news especially with the partisan breakdown.

I have heard voters in Ohio talk about how much the economy has improved there (with no mention of the R governor). Is it Romney’s position on the auto industry what is holding him back. THere are many people that don’t realize that GM is still in trouble and 7 out of 10 cars they make aren’t made in the US.

earlgrey133 on October 24, 2012 at 9:30 AM

But if you look at the internals in this poll, Ohioans are still pessimistic about the next 4 years if Obama is presiding over the economy. So if that’s the defining issue in this campaign, why would a majority of them vote for him?

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 9:33 AM

“What’s the deal with independents here? Let’s GOTV!

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 9:32 AM”

They don’t like Romney. They have never liked Romney. He’s never polled well in Ohio, and you guys think “just like that” the state will change it’s mind.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I believe Fleetwood Mac has a song that relates to the 2012 election.

blatantblue on October 24, 2012 at 9:24 AM

So does Black Sabbath.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

….gummeandpokeme is going to have a low sperm count!

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Good for the environment, I say, since his mom will use less laundry detergent.

Archivarix on October 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Actually, this looks like a very bad poll for Romney. Only tied with R +1 sample (when the actual likely voters are probably at least D +3/+4), and down 10% among early voters.

Looks like he is down about 3% in the state, by the way SUSA has it at R 44/O 47 today.

Both firms specialize in cheap and crappy robopolls, but the bulk of evidence points to Romney still trailing in Ohio by a couple of points.

buridan on October 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM

They don’t like Romney. They have never liked Romney. He’s never polled well in Ohio, and you guys think “just like that” the state will change it’s mind.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Says the idiot who can’t even get his own state right, but thinks he knows better than the people who live there.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Too close to call. That Obummer is still not near breaking 50% anywhere, and for an incumbent seeking re-election, it is a nightmare for him.
But knowing the large cities will mysteriously come up with whatever number of votes Obama needs, Romney can’t let up. Time to up the ante, use the money. Be aggressive.

smfic on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Romney has neutered the gender gap

Nice choice of words

bgoldman on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

They don’t like Romney. They have never liked Romney. He’s never polled well in Ohio, and you guys think “just like that” the state will change it’s mind.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Hey, idiot. I live in Ohio.

MARK MY WORDS: ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO.

Choke on it.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Enemy-obama is on the run …

http://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/obama-visits-troops.gif

Pork-Chop on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

We will see over the next couple of days where the polls settle. I think that the debate was such that it will take those undecideds that didn’t watch it a couple of days to get debate info from news sources and have their opinion formed for them… ahem, form their opinion.

donkichi on October 24, 2012 at 9:37 AM

If Romeny isn’t ahead with a R+1 sample, he isn’t winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I find it hillarious that a concern troll provides such delusional “analysis” when all the professional pollsters say something entirely different.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 9:37 AM

And if you bothered to watch the morning news shows or listen to the radio, the story isn’t being played up at all. Just a brief mention along with all the other items. It’s not going to be what you want it to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Well that’s a surprise, the alphabets failing to cover this while breathlessly informing their viewers of the latest “X Factor” results. Yep, surprising.

Almost makes a girl wish that Dubya were president again just so the “news” shows would show more interest in such matters.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:38 AM

by the way SUSA has it at R 44/O 47 today.

buridan on October 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM

By the way, it has a +7 D sample.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Can we be rid of the poll troll already? Every single thread is disrupted with his crap.

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

But knowing the large cities will mysteriously come up with whatever number of votes Obama needs, Romney can’t let up. Time to up the ante, use the money. Be aggressive.

smfic on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yeah, take the number of Obamaphones in O-i-h-o and multiply by two and you’ll get the rough number of votes to be found in the large cities.

One positive is that the momentum is clearly with Mitt and the importance of that cannot be discounted. The rat-eared wonder, by comparison, seems irrelevant, disconnected, and bored.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

If Obama is not at 50% he’s not winning Ohio.

happytobehere on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

So does Black Sabbath.
Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Remember Fleetwoods song Landslide?

blatantblue on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Four dead in Ben-gha-zi.

Fallon on October 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I’m a bit surprised at the sample; Rasmussen has said before that he expects D+2 or 3 in Ohio, in between 2010 and 2008. He also said (yesterday on Hewitt) that voter self-ID is fluid.

Caddell (on Hannity radio yesterday) thinks Ohio will be very difficult to move and that they should be in Wisconsin and PA, where there has not been the extensive ad contamination. And Ohio has been really slow in moving.

Here’s hoping though that it does break Romney this week or next.

EastofEden on October 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Mitt will win Ohio by a clear margin. JUST GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!

Rixon on October 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM
Hey, idiot. I live in Ohio.

MARK MY WORDS: ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO.

Choke on it.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

…he swallows?

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

You guys think the sample in OH will be R+1? You cannot compare turnout in an off-year election to a Presidential election.

And Mitt loses Independents?

Obama wins Ohio by 1-2 pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:27 AM

So now you’re concerned about the sample?

You don’t seem concerned when the samples are D+7 or D+10.

sentinelrules on October 24, 2012 at 9:41 AM

And for G-d’s sake, DUMP SHERROD BROWN!

Rixon on October 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I think Romney wins Ohio, but this poll adds to my nervousness to be honest. I don’t like the indy numbers. And I wonder about that sample.

WannabeAnglican on October 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Can we be rid of the poll troll already? Every single thread is disrupted with his crap.

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Not every thread. It stays away from anything to do with dead sodomized ambassadors.

But I’ll second the idea that perhaps we don’t need almost every thread hijacked and disrupted by inane and inaccurate commentary about selective polls.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Has this guy ever given a coherent reason why he likes Obama?

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

By the way, it has a +7 D sample.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Which is good news for Romney. The thing that jamegumbandpokemon seems to be conveniently overlooking is that the poll may be tied today, but the swing states are moving in Romney’s direction and have been for weeks. With the election 13 days away, there’s a high likelihood that we won’t be looking at a 48-48 dead heat come November 6. And BTW, that also applies to other tied states like Wisconsin.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

OH not looking good. Absentee ballots not going his way. And we know about Obama’s GOTV capacity.

The dirt that is about to fly Romney’s way will swing a result that is this close.

Romney had better get to work in WI and PA

Carnac on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I think Romney wins Ohio, but this poll adds to my nervousness to be honest. I don’t like the indy numbers. And I wonder about that sample.

WannabeAnglican on October 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Hey, I’m going to be nervous about this election all the way until January 21st at noon when President Romney takes office.

Happy Nomad on October 24, 2012 at 9:44 AM

New Rasmussen tracking, Romney holding at +4 50-46.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 9:44 AM

by the way SUSA has it at R 44/O 47 today.

buridan on October 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM

And their sample voted for Obama 51-40% in 2008. The actual results had a 4.5% gap, not a 11% gap. It’s not a good poll for the President.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Folks, Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points… All what it takes in Ohio is for 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 to stay home in 2012 combined with only 7% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 to switch to Romney in 2012 and Obama is certain to lose Ohio…

I am certain that at least 3% of Obama voters from 2008 in Ohio are staying home in 2012 and at least 7% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 in Ohio are switching to Romney in 2012…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Remember Fleetwoods song Landslide?

blatantblue on October 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Not really a FM fan, I was thinking “Mob Rules” or maybe “Silent Running” by Mike and the Mechanics.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

On second thought, has anyone given a coherent reason why they like Obama?

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:45 AM

so Romney is up big with independents in every state but Ohio? Is it me or does Ohio get a little tougher every election cycle? I think years of the producers and generally motivated people fleeing that state for better opportunities is about to catch up with the GOP.

bannor on October 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Even if Romney is really up in Ohio, I worry that the “dead” votes and the libs will see to it, that Odummer wins there…. sigh

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Looking at this morning lay of the land with regards to the senate races, we have a very unhappy prospect that Dirty Harry will still be the Majority Leader and attempts to repeal ObamaCare or tax reform look grim:
Akin as expected, ran a stupid and inane campaign and is way behind.
Brown is behind in MA.
McMahon lost her earlier lead in every one of the recent poll.
Mourdock statement in last night debate will hurt him.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 9:48 AM

….gummeandpokeme is going to have a low sperm count!

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I’m not sure what you mean by that, but I can’t stop laughing.

Thomas More on October 24, 2012 at 9:48 AM

They I don’t like Romney. I They have never liked Romney. He’s never polled well in Ohio my head, and you guys think “just like that” the state will change it’s mind that I’m a moron.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Fixed it for you.

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 9:48 AM

so Romney is up big with independents in every state but Ohio? Is it me or does Ohio get a little tougher every election cycle? I think years of the producers and generally motivated people fleeing that state for better opportunities is about to catch up with the GOP.

bannor on October 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

In all honesty, it’s hard to say. I mean I did leave back in 2009, but I know at least 5 or more liberals that I went to high school with that left as well.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:49 AM

This poll scares the hell out of me. The best we can do with an R+1 sample is a tie? I realize the movement is trending our direction, and that tons of other polls with bigtime Dem oversampling show it very close, but this one still makes me more nervous than a longtailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

I get that we can win without Ohio, but a win without Ohio is a way way outside shot. We need this. Come on Ohio, don’t let us down.

dczombie on October 24, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Absentee Voting for Obama has been halved.

His Cuyahoga County absentee total is larger than 2008, but so is the Republican.

That’s not a good sign for Barry.

’08 was his ceiling for voter totals, due to population shift and voter roll purges.

Meaning his absentee votes are cannibalizing Election Day voters.

But, for Romney, it’s a very good sign.

Because McCain left, or lost, a large percentage of Republican voters on the table.

Now, they’re coming home, while the population shift towards the exurbs has created more R-leaning voters and the voter roll purge has negligible effect to the Repubs.

This is shaping up to an ’04 numbers replay, where Romney will carry the state by 2 points.

This time, though, the state will be called earlier than usual because Cuyahoga County will have smaller election day turnout due to the push by Obama for early voters.

And if Nevada stays at only 15K/Obama, Romney will carry that state.

I still believe the way Florida swings, so does Nevada. Looks to be holding.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 9:49 AM

How about, “The Night Chicago Died” by Paper Lace?

Geez, I’m old.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

It still AMAZES me, that this race is sooo close with all the bungling and the horrible state of our union?!! WTF??!! Are people really that stupid??!! If so, God help us all.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Hoping that there is a big enthusiasm gap and Romney voters are going fom voting against obama to voting for romney and against obama. I live in a red state Ga and everyone I know is already voting or cant wait to vote. I know a couple of Dems who arent voting at all.

ldbgcoleman on October 24, 2012 at 9:51 AM

How about, “The Night Chicago Died” by Paper Lace?

Geez, I’m old.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Even mentioning “Paper Lace” can get you executed in some nations, playing their music should be a capital crime here in the U.S.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:52 AM

The amusing part is that Romney quite likely won’t need OH at all.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Let’s go to the internals to see where Ohioans stand. The sample D/R/I is 38/39/23, almost identical to the 2010 midterm of 36/37/28 — but a little light on independents.

And Romney is only tied in a poll whose sample will look nothing like the 2012 electorate? I’m suddenly feeling more confident. Not to mention today’s Survey USA poll in Ohio which has Obama +3 in a sample where Romney pulls 22% of the black vote. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to win him a second term. I’ll take it.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

The amusing part is that Romney quite likely won’t need OH at all.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Oh? And how does that work?

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

It’s amazing me that a poll, with a Dem +7 sample and a poll with an R +1 sample can render the same result.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:54 AM

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

My thoughts, exactly. As I’m sure of so many others.

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 9:52 AM

LOL!

That’s almost as bad as getting “Ma Belle Ami” stuck in your head.

Will gumby last until November 6th? Inquiring minds want to know.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Oh? And how does that work?

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Romney takes NV, IA, MI, WI and PA. All quite possible.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I still believe the way Florida swings, so does Nevada. Looks to be holding.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Well that makes sense since Nevada was a blowout in 2008 and Florida was not…Wait, it doesn’t make sense at all.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:55 AM

We still have 2 weeks to go and Obama is barely leading even in places like CT. He is in BIG trouble.

Preference cascade is building.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Romney takes NV, IA, MI, WI and PA. All quite possible.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:55 AM

There’s the realm of the possible and then there’s the realm of the likely. Romney winning PA is no where near the later. Did you see the recent story about how Romney’s investment in PA is entirely smoke and mirrors. One rally for Paul Ryan in a media market that borders SE Ohio, no increase in staffers. The entire thing is about showing strength. PA isn’t going red, it all comes down to Ohio.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Lot’s of concern trolling going on in this thread.

This latest Ras poll is a little screwy. how is Romney ahead with indies by double digits everywhere EXCEPT Ohio?

Regardless, he;s currently even and the trend is in his direction. Don’t let the trolls get to you…

PetecminMd on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

And Romney is only tied in a poll whose sample will look nothing like the 2012 electorate? I’m suddenly feeling more confident. Not to mention today’s Survey USA poll in Ohio which has Obama +3 in a sample where Romney pulls 22% of the black vote. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to win him a second term. I’ll take it.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

AHAHAHAHAHAHA, the trolls are desperate when they are commenting on polls and states that they know nothing about. The handwringers need to do the same as the trolls if you don’t live or know anything about Ohio, chill out. A lot of Ohioans like to keep things close to the vest.

It’s all good people, Obama has no shot in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Geez, I’m old.

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

And you have bad taste.

C’mon Billy, be a hero.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Here’s the bottom line, any swing state in which Obama is not already at 52 or higher with a realistic sample is a big problem for him.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Wouldn’t it just be easier if you simply moved to a European country? Like France, maybe?

Cleombrotus on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

“Romney takes NV, IA, MI, WI and PA. All quite possible.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:55 AM”

PA is not possible. And NV is highly unlikely.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

They are releasing the interview. Chocked full of lies and spin, I’m sure. Hopefully serious voters will line their bird cages with it.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

So Romney leads on every single metric except who people are going to vote for. Makes sense. Is Gary Johnson taking republican votes or something?

RW Wacko on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

OH not looking good. Absentee ballots not going his way. And we know about Obama’s GOTV capacity.

The dirt that is about to fly Romney’s way will swing a result that is this close.

Romney had better get to work in WI and PA

Carnac on October 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Absentee ballots for democrats in Ohio this year are down by 130,000 compared to what they had in 2008… Obama won Ohio by 260,000 votes in 2008. If he is going to be down by 130,000 vote in absentee ballots alone then he is going to be down by at least 350,000 with the overall vote and hence he is going to lose Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Not to mention today’s Survey USA poll in Ohio

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Which was simply commissioned by a local TV station there in order to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I’m not sure what you mean by that, but I can’t stop laughing.

Thomas More on October 24, 2012 at 9:48 AM

…(I can’t be too specific here at times…because they have this thing…called “the hammer”…that’s why at times his pole…sometimes…becomes his poll…etc….he’s always whacking… the wrong thing!)

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 9:58 AM

And Romney is only tied in a poll whose sample will look nothing like the 2012 electorate? I’m suddenly feeling more confident. Not to mention today’s Survey USA poll in Ohio which has Obama +3 in a sample where Romney pulls 22% of the black vote. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to win him a second term. I’ll take it.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Sadly, the Dem advantage in early voting in OH is far far far less than it was in 2008. As a matter of fact, McCain actually won OH in 2008 on voting day.

mitchellvii on October 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

We still have 2 weeks to go and Obama is barely leading even in places like CT

The RCP average of CT polls has Obama up 11.7 points, in what world is that “barely leading?”

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Re: Independents in Ohio

You don’t have to register with a party, so large amounts go “indie”.

Who are they?

Public-sector employees or indirectly connected to the public-sector.

Cops/Fire/Teachers/State-City-Municipal – and spouses, grandparents, etc…

Kasich went to war with all of them, and just signed off on a revision on all of their pension programs, just last month. So, it’s residual from 2B5.

They’re big govt Republicans, but don’t see themselves that way, since they’re predominantly City employees, statewide.

Obama, and W, is/was their backstop against the continual tax income shrinkage they’ve been experiencing since ’95.

The gap ripped open in ’04, so now it’s always been a game of pitting one party on the state level against the other party on the national level.

In other words, if Kasich didn’t win, Romney would be carrying the state for over a year, in every poll.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Eastwood cuts ad for Romney
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klXTb-s7d9A&feature=player_embedded

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

It’s all good people, Obama has no shot in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I hope thats the “Quote of the Year!”

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Lot’s of concern trolling going on in this thread.

PetecminMd on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Lots of Eeyores too.

Smells like a stable in here. A stable that hasn’t been cleaned in a while.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

“A lot of Ohioans like to keep things close to the vest.

It’s all good people, Obama has no shot in Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 24, 2012 at 9:57 AM”

So THAT’S it! Ohioans are just too super duper secret to say they’re voting for Romney. I love it!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

If Romeny isn’t ahead with a R+1 sample, he isn’t winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 9:33 AM

He is when you consider enthusiasm. I’ve seen Romney signs in yards that traditionally never put out signs.

dominigan on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

“We still have 2 weeks to go and Obama is barely leading even in places like CT”

Are you crazy?

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Call me Dick Morris but I`m still saying a 300+ EC win, Oiho will be in the win column, as will PA, FL, MI, WI, and possibly NH.

NY Conservative on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Did you see the recent story about how Romney’s investment in PA is entirely smoke and mirrors.

did you see the story about barry’s bengazi coverup, he knew straight away it was a terror attack, but tried to push it on a video for political gain ?

runner on October 24, 2012 at 10:01 AM

And Romney is only tied in a poll whose sample will look nothing like the 2012 electorate? I’m suddenly feeling more confident. Not to mention today’s Survey USA poll in Ohio which has Obama +3 in a sample where Romney pulls 22% of the black vote. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to win him a second term. I’ll take it.

libfreeordie on October 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Is the election today?

Aren’t you cute. You’re forgetting that Romney is still surging upward and the Peeresident is floundering. In two weeks the numbers will be worse for Teh Won.

But yeah, go ahead and take it.

fossten on October 24, 2012 at 10:02 AM

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